Jump to content

Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 9.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

Posted Images

Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
20 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ok, I am in on ALT at 7.16 a share, but only 60 shares.  :(

I should have put in an additional 5k when it was at 10, but with my luck, ir would have tanked.  :(

#stonk lesson - look at options; ALT is one of the stonk plays mentioned in this thread that has a chain of options. I went that route, instead of buying shares, and I have about 5x "shares" that I would have had if I bought stock. Sure there is more risk, but this one has played out nicely so far

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

Buckle up mofos...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altimmune-university-alabama-birmingham-uab-110010132.html

 Altimmune, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALT), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, today announced positive results from the preclinical studies of its intranasal COVID-19 vaccine candidate, AdCOVID. The studies, which were conducted in collaboration with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB), showed strong serum neutralizing activity and potent mucosal immunity in the respiratory tract. The induction of IgA antibody in the respiratory tract may be necessary to block both infection and transmission of the virus to prevent further spread of COVID-19. Based on these findings the Company plans to begin manufacturing of AdCOVID and advance the vaccine candidate to a Phase 1 safety and immunogenicity study in Q4 of this year...

And with that, hopefully, ALT could receive funding from the federal governments Operation Warp Speed - which would be another price boost 

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-explaining-operation-warp-speed.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18288

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

#stonk lesson - look at options; ALT is one of the stonk plays mentioned in this thread that has a chain of options. I went that route, instead of buying shares, and I have about 5x "shares" that I would have had if I bought stock. Sure there is more risk, but this one has played out nicely so far

Don't you have to have the cash to buy the options contract if you want to execute it?  I don't quite understand options completely.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 24019

Posted
Posted

 

6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

And with that, hopefully, ALT could receive funding from the federal governments Operation Warp Speed - which would be another price boost 

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-explaining-operation-warp-speed.html

Its getting to be a bit ridiculous keeping up with the many vaccine candidates out there. Poked around online and found the following link, last update was two days ago, so presumably they make some effort to keep up to speed:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 24019

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Don't you have to have the cash to buy the options contract if you want to execute it?  I don't quite understand options completely.

 

Most people will close out their positions before exercising them. Investopedia has a good overview of options if you want a quick tutorial: https://www.investopedia.com/options-basics-tutorial-4583012

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

Posted
Posted

Intranasal dosing provides AdCOVID with the potential to be administered rapidly and without the need for needles, syringes or trained healthcare personnel. In addition, AdCOVID’s expected room temperature stability profile may allow for broad distribution of the vaccine without the need for expensive cold-chain logistics, such as refrigeration or freezing.

 

This is the really compelling aspect of their approach, ease of distribution and administration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Don't you have to have the cash to buy the options contract if you want to execute it?  I don't quite understand options completely.

 

If you want to exercise the options, yes you will need the cash to buy the shares - I'll use my ALT as an example - I bought 12/18/20 expiry $7.50 calls on 2 different dates
5 @1.41 on 5/20 
10 @2.52 on 6/22
total cost was about $3,200
last week I sold 2 of the options and made enough to recoup my total initial investment

If I hold the remaining 13 options until expiration, and the stock price is above $7.50, the cost to exercise the options is $9,750. However at today's price ($18.35 for the options) I could sell 6 of the options a couple of days before expiration and clear enough profit to have 700 shares of ALT at a blended cost of $1.97/share (this ignores taxes, in real life - do not ignore taxes)

Your point, however, is excellent - you do not want to hold options to expiration if you do not have the cash/shares to cover the exercise - your broker, at their discretion, can cancel the order, or margin your account (at a huge cost) to loan you shares/cash towards the exercise.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18288

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

you do not want to hold options to expiration if you do not have the cash/shares to cover the exercise - your broker, at their discretion, can cancel the order, or margin your account (at a huge cost) to loan you shares/cash towards the exercise.

 

I thought if it's a call, you can just let it expire and only be out the option contract premium cost. Is that not correct?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
15 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I thought if it's a call, you can just let it expire and only be out the option contract premium cost. Is that not correct?

only if you have a do not exercise order on file with your broker - I found out the hard way when I had some DIS calls that turned green at the close on the expiration date. Luckily I had enough cash to fund the exercise, and then the stock went up the next day (though not much), and now there is very little cost in trading; so that turned out okay, but I (hope I) learned a lesson about risk of exercise. Had that been an uncovered put, I would have owed the broker for lending me shares to sell short to cover, and that can be expensive.
I will say that you think you know how this stuff all works, but until it happens there are a lot of events that can cause exercise of what you thought were no that volatile of a risk; and don't even get me started about straddle/strangle/etc that you leave open.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

Posted
Posted

ALT dropped as low as $11 (for a nanosecond) in AH and is currently at $25.  Somebody got a screaming deal and has doubled their money.  Here's the reason for the drop.  May consider selling at $50....or may watch it go to 100+ because STONKS.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altimmune-announces-proposed-public-offering-200100632.html

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ok, I bought 1 lot of ALT call options at a strike price of 15 for 12.50 per share.  

They expire Friday.  Should I buy the stock or try and make a profit on the options?

I would look likely just roll the option to the next month contract after you make a tidy profit on that one.  You should have a nice 40% gain or better in that one 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I would look likely just roll the option to the next month contract after you make a tidy profit on that one.  You should have a nice 40% gain or better in that one 

So basically, sell it, and rebuy into the August Contract.  :)

Most my trading experience is in the commodity futures markets, so this is the first time I am doing options.

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Coming out of the chutes and banking hard with your first experience in options.  Lookit yew!

Ok, got out at 16.50, so realized a 400 profit on a 1250 investment.  Then ALT blew through the roof again, so I left profit on the table.

Holy shit at the ALT options in August, September, and December.  If anything, they are more $$$.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ok, got out at 16.50, so realized a 400 profit on a 1250 investment.  Then ALT blew through the roof again, so I left profit on the table.

Holy shit at the ALT options in August, September, and December.  If anything, they are more $$$.

 

 

I'd buy the $30 strike.  You may get 2 of them 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
57 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ok, got out at 16.50, so realized a 400 profit on a 1250 investment.  Then ALT blew through the roof again, so I left profit on the table.

Holy shit at the ALT options in August, September, and December.  If anything, they are more $$$.

 

31 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'd buy the $30 strike.  You may get 2 of them 

Best thing I've done in a long time was after I took some profits on ALT stock, to reinvest that into 12/18 $7.50 calls - I've cashed out all of my original investments, have $2K in cash and I'm sitting on the remainder of the calls. 
This shit is what can get you hooked on the #stonklife

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

Posted
Posted
On 7/10/2020 at 3:47 PM, CooterBrown said:

I dunno. I think it can push to $30 next week because why not.

I feel like ADOM was testing the water before making a run over the next few months. I'll probably buy a big chunk on Monday. 

ALT reached a high today of $33.30 before closing at $29.03 +$4 for the session.  Reading the tea leaves is a real science. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 7/14/2020 at 8:10 AM, Wally Fairway said:

ALT only up 6% premarket, will likely drop at the open as profit takers take some profits, and then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

I'm not really an advocate of day trading, but damn ALT seems to dip right at the open everyday as it has gone from what $12-$30.
There is a lot of cash to be made if you trust in doing that.....hmmmmm

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
  • Author
Posted
12 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'm not really an advocate of day trading, but damn ALT seems to dip right at the open everyday as it has gone from what $12-$30.
There is a lot of cash to be made if you trust in doing that.....hmmmmm

Well today might not be the best day to do this - ALT announced they are selling convertible warrants that can become 1.6 million common shares at (I think) the equivalent price of $21.62/share. So that will drive the pricing for a little while

Quote

PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT

(To prospectus dated April 12, 2019)

3,369,564 Shares of Common Stock

Pre-Funded Warrants to Purchase 1,630,436 Shares of Common Stock

 

 

LOGO

We are offering an aggregate of 3,369,564 shares of our common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, and, to certain investors in lieu thereof, pre-funded warrants to purchase 1,630,436 shares of our common stock, or the Pre-Funded Warrants, in this offering.

The purchase price of each Pre-Funded Warrant equals the public offering price per share of common stock, minus $0.0001, and the exercise price of each Pre-Funded Warrant equals $0.0001 per share. The Pre-Funded Warrants are exercisable at any time, provided that each Pre-Funded Warrant holder will be prohibited from exercising such Pre-Funded Warrants into shares of our common stock if, as a result of such exercise, the holder, together with its affiliates, would own more than 4.99% of the total number of shares of our common stock then issued and outstanding, which percentage may change at the holders’ election to any other number less than or equal to 19.99% upon 61 days’ notice to us. This prospectus supplement also relates to the offering of the shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of such Pre-Funded Warrants.

Our common stock is currently listed on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol “ALT.” On July 13, 2020, the last reported sale price of our common stock on the Nasdaq Global Market was $25.00. There is no established public market for the Pre-Funded Warrants, and we do not intend to list the Pre-Funded Warrants on the Nasdaq Global Market, any other national securities exchange or any other nationally recognized trading system.

Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. You should review carefully the risks and uncertainties described under the heading “Risk Factors” on page S-10 of this prospectus supplement, and under similar headings in the documents that are incorporated by reference into this prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus.

Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any state securities commission has approved or disapproved of these securities, or passed upon the adequacy or accuracy of this prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.

 

 

 

                         
     PER SHARE      PER
PRE-FUNDED
WARRANT 		     TOTAL  

Public Offering Price

   $ 23.00      $ 22.999      $ 114,999,837  

Underwriting Discounts and Commissions (1)

    $ 1.38      $ 1.38      $ 6,900,000  

Proceeds to Altimmune (before expenses)

   $ 21.62      $ 21.619      $ 108,099,837  

 

 

(1)   See “Underwriting” for a description of compensation payable to the underwriters.

We have granted the underwriters an option for a period of 30 days to purchase up to an additional 750,000 shares of our common stock from us at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. If the underwriters exercise the option in full, the total underwriting discounts and commissions payable by us will be $7,935,000 and the total proceeds to us, before expenses, will be $124.3 million.

Delivery of the shares of common stock and Pre-Funded Warrants is expected to be made on or about July 16, 2020.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 24019

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, SuperSport said:

ALT trying real hard to crash today

The issue I have with ALT is they appear to be way behind in the game. Their 20X appreciation in stock price is what happens when day traders get involved in a stock that had a market cap of around $50 million, not because they have the most promising vaccine candidate. I would presume that the more success companies like Moderna, Pfizer, Astrozenica etc...have in  phase II and phase III trials (ALT has yet to start a phase I trial) the need for ALT to develop a vaccine diminishes. All of those other companies have revenue of 100's millions to billions and are skilled at actually manufacturing and bringing products to market. The likelihood that ALT will be first to market with a vaccine seems far less likely than the likelihood that they will  eventually be back where they were in January (~2/share). I don't own any, but if I was up 2X-10X in that investment I would probably take my profits and look elsewhere. When they lose the day trader's attention, look out below.

Here is a list of the various efforts and where they stand. Altimmune isn't even mentioned, which would concern me if I was planning on riding this thing up further. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Edited by Blotto
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I would presume that the more success companies like Moderna, Pfizer, Astrozenica etc...have in  phase II and phase III trials (ALT has yet to start a phase I trial) the need for ALT to develop a vaccine diminishes.

I agree with your takes; however I do think that ALT's vax has some unique properties that would bring incremental value even if they are not first, second, or even third to market.  Namely nasal administration, and room temp stability.  Unique benefits for wide administration and distribution, esp in third world countries.  Probably not as much money to be made in those healthcare systems compared to the united states.  But if this thing becomes endemic or immunity is not long lived, and we are not just talking about one wave of immunization, we are talking about multiple waves of immunization and perhaps something that looks like influenza yearly vaccination.  

Wouldn't touch it at current levels, but if there is a substantial pull back as MRNA, PFE, and AZ come to market, might be worth a flier if the clinical data on those vax suggest we might not be able to wipe this out completely.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

Decided to sell all my ALT.  Sold it at 25.18. Cost basis for all my shares was 8.04.  May reinvest in ALT when the dust settles.

 

I just got out at 24.10.  I had a cost of 6:95 or 7 roughly.  It was a nice ride.  

Trying to figure out a good option play today.  That whole making lots of money quickly (relatively) is addicting.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...