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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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NateHitch

NateHitch 1282

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If you like stonks you should be following @RadioSilentplay on Twitter. I know how to read charts but this dude takes it to an art form. I'm speaking spanglish and he's fluent in Spanish, Portuguese and Latin. He was preaching NOVN AT $.36 and I didn't believe it until $.55

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
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The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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SuperSport

SuperSport 1370

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10 hours ago, NateHitch said:

If you like stonks you should be following @RadioSilentplay on Twitter. I know how to read charts but this dude takes it to an art form. I'm speaking spanglish and he's fluent in Spanish, Portuguese and Latin. He was preaching NOVN AT $.36 and I didn't believe it until $.55

"I am in Barbados" has been shamelessly appropriated for future use.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1656

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35 minutes ago, TornACL said:

Is all of this biotechnology dip because a big fish in the market has a billion dollar order for vaccines that haven't been developed yet? Lol

Or are we on the 'dump' side of pump and dump?  That's usually when I buy in.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

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37 minutes ago, TornACL said:

Is all of this biotechnology dip because a big fish in the market has a billion dollar order for vaccines that haven't been developed yet? Lol

That's my take. PFE deal for 100MM units + option for another 500MM more would seem to put a damper on the potential market.  Add to that the deals also in place with AZ, MRNA, etc.  

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1656

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2 hours ago, NateHitch said:

This guy has a lot of info about NOVN and a ton of other stonks. Good news is coming
 

He's excited about a $30m credit facility, when NOVN has lost more than $35m per year, except 4 years ago when they lost almost $60m.

I'm IN!  #stonks

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52-80

52-80 19377

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21 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I started buying $NKLA again below $40... Are some of you liking this longer term? Realize they have a long way to go but...

this is the scammiest of scams

 

i wish you good fortunes in the wars to come

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

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On 7/8/2020 at 9:33 PM, Blotto said:

Not a typical “stonk” play, but the entire premise rests on Gilead's remdesivir taking off as a treatment for the ‘rona, so there is a fair amount of uncertainty.

In 2016, I picked up some shares of Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) at a cost average of $95. They are an intriguing pharma play for me because they don’t actually bring drugs to market, but instead license technology and sell ingredients to other pharma companies, who in turn absorb the costly process of bringing drugs to market. Their strategy is to have hundreds of shots on goal without having to fund any of them.

They had a hell of a run all the way up to $270 by mid-2018 largely on the strength of a product called Promacta. In early 2019 they sold their IP and royalty rights for Promacta for $800+ million dollars, which certainly curtailed their short term revenue prospects as it was their largest revenue generator. But they added $800 million to their warchest which is impressive considering that Promacta had only contributed $300 million dollars in revenue to LGND over the previous 10+ years. Regardless, revenue cratered and so did the stock price.....all the way down to $70-ish in Mar/Apr. 

Currently they have 100+ pharma companies that they partner with and 200 drug candidates in various phases of testing. Their largest revenue generator is Captisol, a product that enhances solubility of drug molecules:

 image.png.66a1ecffe6d0549789dfe125715380d1.png

Their most strategic partner for Captisol is Gilead who uses it in remdesivir. Gilead was largely responsible for the bump in Captisol sales  shown above (and this is Q1 before covid really got going). When you look at the share of LGND’s revenue that is attributable to Captisol, the following note from LGND CEO certainly peaks my interest: https://www.ligand.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/415/

Even if the projections are 5X reality, it should result in some pretty decent business for LGND that wasn’t on the radar 6 months ago. I fucked up by not getting out at $270, and ended up riding it all the way back down, but I also know that this stock can take off. I dig their business model, and think even without the ‘rona juicing Captisol revenue, they have a lot of interesting potential. Unfortunately the options market for LGND is limited without much volume, but I'm considering doubling down on my shares. 

TLDR – LGND may worth a look. Or I could just buy some TSLA and cash at out $5K a share in a couple of months in the spirit of this thread.  

This has had a nice little run since your post, up 11%. Wish I would have bought a bit more. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24019

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

This has had a nice little run since your post, up 11%. Wish I would have bought a bit more. 

So a follow-up to my original post. The potential for a short term spike with LGND rests with Gilead. In other words, if Gilead is really cranking out remdesivir, I would think that LGND would see a spike in orders for captisol. If you look at the revenue breakdown in my original post, the 136% YoY growth in Captisol was largely Gilead, and that was Q1 before the 'rona panic was fully in gear. 

Gilead's Q2 earnings call is 7/30. LGND's Q2 call is 8/3. I will be interested in Gileads comments about remdesivir, specifically how much they shipped in Q2. If there is a huge jump, that should indicate that LGND's Q2 numbers should benefit. I'm already overweighted in shares, but it may be worth an options play if GILD really is pumping remdesivir production. Even though Gilead decided to give away their initial stock of remdesivir, that doesnt mean LGND didnt get paid for the Captisol that is in the remdesivir. So even if GILD doesnt blow out earnings, evidence of huge production output in remdesivir could be interesting as it concerns LGND. We'll see. 

 

Side not for those playing NOVN. Ligand stands to benefit from their success as well: 

Quote

Phase 3 drug candidate targeting molluscum

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: LGND) announces the acquisition of economic rights to SB206 from Novan, Inc. SB206 is a Phase 3 topical antiviral gel for the treatment of skin infections, including molluscum contagiosum. Ligand will pay $12 million to Novan and in return will be entitled to receive a tiered royalty of 7% to 10%, as well as up to $20 million in regulatory and commercial milestones. Novan is responsible for all expenses to develop or commercialize SB206, and will use 100% of the proceeds from this transaction in the development and pursuit of regulatory approval for SB206.

“This deal enables Ligand to participate in the potential future revenue of a promising Phase 3 stage asset with a potential commercial launch in 2021. The drug candidate targets a condition mostly affecting children and with a significant unmet medical need,” said John Higgins, Chief Executive Officer of Ligand. “We believe Novan is a well-capitalized company with an experienced management team. This deal adds an attractive late-stage asset to our growing list of partnered programs that could be approved and launch within the next three years.”

That why I think LGND has such a great model. They work with so many pharma companies, that they have upside through 100's of drug candidates. Sometimes it is through IP, sometimes it is through sale of product like Captisol, and other times it through financial investment. With the $800 million in cash they received for the sale of the rights to Promacta, they just keeping buying more shots on goal. True they could waste it all, but I generally like their approach. 

Edited by Blotto
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Blotto

Blotto 24019

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I started buying $NKLA again below $40... Are some of you liking this longer term? Realize they have a long way to go but...

 

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

this is the scammiest of scams

 

i wish you good fortunes in the wars to come

Seriously. It may bounce around for the short term, but the company has bust written all over it. The huge spike in June was due to their announcement that they were accepting preorders for the badger pickup.  It deosnt really exist yet other than an idea,  there doesnt even appear to be a prototype. 

Quote

As of yet, none of these other vehicles have a location set for production. Alongside the announcement, it was revealed that the Nikola Badger would be made by partnering with another company. Most likely in the same fashion as the Nikola Tre. This was recently reinforced by the CEO on twitter. The only issue is we have yet to hear which company will partner with them or to what extent annual production numbers are expected to look like. If I had to guess, not even Nikola knows.

While currently the most talked about aspect of the company, the Nikola Badger was nearly a last minute decision. Trevor Milton recently revealed that the idea to create the Badger was only formed after seeing how ugly the Tesla Cybertruck looked, which was only revealed three months prior to the Badgers announcement.

In a company first, paid reservations will open on June 29th for the Nikola Badger. The company will hold their annual Nikola World Event on December 3rd – 5th where they will showcase a prototype of the Badger. In order to boost numbers, any reservation holders will be invited.

Margins on low volume EV's are brutal as is. So what the hell is the point of paying another Automotive OEM to build the truck and then carve out additional margin for NKLA to benefit. Its a pipedream on powerpoint. As a day trade stock, its fine due to the swingy price. As an investment, I'd get the fuck out. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24019

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Posted
14 minutes ago, NateHitch said:

NAK is blowing up. Yates called this one, dude is unreal

Penny Stonkin is the wild wild west right now with the advent of Robinhood, Webull etc... Just on r/pennystocks alone there are probably 200 threads mentioning NAK from the last few days. Portnoy has been pumping NAK as well. Doesnt really matter who starts it, if you can get enough attention the stock rise becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. They call it pump and dump for a reason. Lot of shady shit, but in reality its not any more/less shady than one of the big brokerages putting out a buy recommendation on a stock with a higher price target when you f'n know the trading side of the business is already in on the stock. 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17817

Posted
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2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Penny Stonkin is the wild wild west right now with the advent of Robinhood, Webull etc... Just on r/pennystocks alone there are probably 200 threads mentioning NAK from the last few days. Portnoy has been pumping NAK as well. Doesnt really matter who starts it, if you can get enough attention the stock rise becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. They call it pump and dump for a reason. Lot of shady shit, but in reality its not any more/less shady than one of the big brokerages putting out a buy recommendation on a stock with a higher price target when you f'n know the trading side of the business is already in on the stock. 

Northern dynasty materials?

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

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Posted
3 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Ya, I’m dumping my NKLA this week. Taking my lumps on that one. Took my 100% gain on TSLA today. Let it go to $2,000...I’ll take my money now....because it could go back to $1,000.

I bought a chunk @ 700 and dumped it ~800 a few days later and felt pretty good about it.  Hindsight is going to be a real bitch when this market shakes out.  

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32079

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On 7/22/2020 at 2:36 PM, shakahorn said:

He's excited about a $30m credit facility, when NOVN has lost more than $35m per year, except 4 years ago when they lost almost $60m.

I'm IN!  #stonks

I mean, he's not wrong about the credit thing, it's kind of neutral or positive for now.

But any time there's a stock issue at a certain price, that's gonna be the price target for a while.  Doesn't matter what the circumstances of the issue may be.

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