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Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

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3 hours ago, Blotto said:

 

The government is narrowing the field. If your horse ain't getting these handouts, chances are its heading to the glue factory. It doesn't mean its impossible to get to market with a vaccine, but its a hell of a lot harder than it will be for the companies getting billions from the government. From Wiki:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

 

Yep.  I've taken up modest positions in AZN, PFE, and MRNA. Them the dogs in this fight. 

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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B00M

B00M 6725

Posted
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3 hours ago, Blotto said:

 

The government is narrowing the field. If your horse ain't getting these handouts, chances are its heading to the glue factory. It doesn't mean its impossible to get to market with a vaccine, but its a hell of a lot harder than it will be for the companies getting billions from the government. From Wiki:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

 

glue.jpg

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RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

Posted
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1 hour ago, ZB'Tejas said:

$SNVP with a tough finish to the day

Sell before the news profit taking is my guess. Could have had a lot of people looking at 400% - 500% gains if they bought in the 0003 - 0005 range. I'm waiting it out, but can't hate on that. There will also be that happening right before the court case I bet. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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16 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Playing the decline - bought some 8/17 $324 SPY puts, and 9/4 $300 puts - both were priced jut above $1.
Not a lot, but more than a hedge - so lets see if the afternoon volatility continues????

To #Stonk or Not To #Stonk - that is the question

looks like I once again just fucking nailed the timing of these "investments"

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

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1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

Now I need to figure out if I should just dump ibio gnus idex etc and just buy Msft 

I told myself in march that I was just going to stick to long positions in big blue chips that I would be ok holding forever.  That lasted a couple months and here I am.  Throwing money at IBIO, NOVN, SPCE, leverage short positions etc for a little hit of dopamine. 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17777

Posted
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38 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I told myself in march that I was just going to stick to long positions in big blue chips that I would be ok holding forever.  That lasted a couple months and here I am.  Throwing money at IBIO, NOVN, SPCE, leverage short positions etc for a little hit of dopamine. 

It’s all it is.  An adrenaline rush.  Wanting to win.  I don’t even spend the winnings when I win. 

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18272

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46 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I told myself in march that I was just going to stick to long positions in big blue chips that I would be ok holding forever.  That lasted a couple months and here I am.  Throwing money at IBIO, NOVN, SPCE, leverage short positions etc for a little hit of dopamine. 

FTRNX is a good mutual fund that chases profits like a drunk stonk investor. It satisfies the stonk itch to a degree and turns a tidy profit.  

 

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Errestaurants

Errestaurants 2570

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I told myself in march that I was just going to stick to long positions in big blue chips that I would be ok holding forever.  That lasted a couple months and here I am.  Throwing money at IBIO, NOVN, SPCE, leverage short positions etc for a little hit of dopamine. 

Ibio was pumped pretty good here. I made a nice profit. Bought back couple weeks back and now I've lost the original gain. Lol 

Edited by Errestaurants
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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

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Anyone following weed stocks? The MSOs are on a fucking tear. If the price action the last couple weeks are any indication of the winners and losers, Trulieve (TCNNF) Cresco (CRLBF) Green Thumb (GTBIF) and Curaleaf (CURLF) have seemed to set themselves apart.

Very bullish Trulieve. Their CEO can get it too.




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Blotto

Blotto 23974

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

Anyone following weed stocks? The MSOs are on a fucking tear. If the price action the last couple weeks are any indication of the winners and losers, Trulieve (TCNNF) Cresco (CRLBF) Green Thumb (GTBIF) and Curaleaf (CURLF) have seemed to set themselves apart.

Very bullish Trulieve. Their CEO can get it too.
 

 

 


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Damn.....wasn't even familiar with Trulieve. Their financial performance vs. valuation seems so out of whack compared to other weed stocks, that it doesn't even seem possible. Most weed companies are hemorrhaging cash, yet Trulieve seems insanely profitable.....is this correct???

image.png.98f01415a0758896df131766c514c758.png

Other than fucking around with options around earnings, I don't invest in weed stocks becuase its a brutally competitive market with serious oversupply issues and some of the ugliest financials you will find. How the fuck does Trulieve manage to generate that kind of income? 

Here is Canopy Growth for comparison (CGC has a market cap of ~6.7 billion vs Trulieve market cap of ~2.7 billion)

image.png.e43663d3d8fbfab11fe07482779ba4d7.png

Trulieve shows revenue and profits growing at 100%+ YoY and a PE of ~15. What am I missing here? Also, how the fuck is gross profit greater than revenue? Will have to download an annual report and figure out how they pulled that off.

4572add80b4bbff9d6942d6944623221.jpg 

It appears that someone at seekingalpha already did the heavy lifting on figuring out their financials....look in the comments for J-PHUNCS explanation. (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4366915-trulieve-buy-robinhooders) They actually do lose money, but by taking advantage of some accounting tactic called "adjustments to biological assets" they show a fat profit. Seems like they can remain "profitable" as long as they continue to grow more and more weed, but that seems like a questionable long-term business plan. At  least it explains the valuation. Fucky indeed!

 

 

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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

Posted
Posted
Damn.....wasn't even familiar with Trulieve. Their financial performance vs. valuation seems so out of whack compared to other weed stocks, that it doesn't even seem possible. Most weed companies are hemorrhaging cash, yet Trulieve seems insanely profitable.....is this correct???
image.png.98f01415a0758896df131766c514c758.png
Other than fucking around with options around earnings, I don't invest in weed stocks becuase its a brutally competitive market with serious oversupply issues and some of the ugliest financials you will find. How the fuck does Trulieve manage to generate that kind of income? 
Here is Canopy Growth for comparison (CGC has a market cap of ~6.7 billion vs Trulieve market cap of ~2.7 billion)
image.png.e43663d3d8fbfab11fe07482779ba4d7.png
I see a company with revenue and profits growing at 100%+ YoY and a PE of ~15. What am I missing here? Also how the fuck is gross profit greater than revenue? Will have to download an annual report and figure out how they pulled that off.
4572add80b4bbff9d6942d6944623221.jpg 

If you can find something good enough for me to liquidate my 3,000 shares at a $8 per share cost basis, I’ll be forever thankful. you can find a short seller report that came out back in late 2019 that caught my eye and the stock fucking tanked. I took a nibble back then because nothing in the short seller report really stood out as obviously fraudulent (no inside sources, arrests, financial docs, legal docs, etc.) and their financials looked outfucking standing (EPS + Revenue beats to like the tune of a 300%, consistently raised guidance, etc.). doubled the fuck down in mid March because vices always do well in recessions. 45 million insider share unlock happened back on July 25, seems like they’re holding out for a bigger payday. I do admit tho, if insider shares start to hit the maker I imagine there will be a pretty big sell-off.

They increased their cash position by $50M this past quarter. All through medical flower and cartridge sales in Florida. No recreational, no edibles, Florida only. like who the fuck has $50M cash like that.

I think it’s been under the radar because of a number of things. Namely Covid, but you also can’t buy this stock on any old exchange. Robinhood and WeBull to name a few. I think up until Covid, Trump’s re-election seemed pretty sure too and I don’t think that boded well for federal legalization. Lots of people got burned with the CGCs, ACBs, Tilrays, etc. but the run up these last few weeks I think has to do with the lack of insider sales.

Have you ever seen to a CGC store? I haven’t. Apparently Trulieve has 55 operating stores with plans to get to 68 by EOY. 200+ company owned delivery cars.

Due to Florida weed laws, they have to report the amount of product they sell and the number of new customers they signed up every week. EVERY WEEK. They’re website is pretty shitty tho but they are constantly selling out of shit. Their subreddit is pretty active too, some bitching but a lot of pics of some dank.

A 100% seed to sale, vertically integrated weed company that’s sells 8ths from $23-$75. It’s a literal monopoly with a huge presence in the shittiest and most medicated state by like a factor of 3.

If Biden wins and the weed financial banking rules get ironed out, this thing gets uplisted to the big board in days. This thing has a PE of 14 but there’s no reason they shouldn’t be 50+ with their kind of enterprise value.
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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

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Posted
Damn.....wasn't even familiar with Trulieve. Their financial performance vs. valuation seems so out of whack compared to other weed stocks, that it doesn't even seem possible. Most weed companies are hemorrhaging cash, yet Trulieve seems insanely profitable.....is this correct???
image.png.98f01415a0758896df131766c514c758.png
Other than fucking around with options around earnings, I don't invest in weed stocks becuase its a brutally competitive market with serious oversupply issues and some of the ugliest financials you will find. How the fuck does Trulieve manage to generate that kind of income? 
Here is Canopy Growth for comparison (CGC has a market cap of ~6.7 billion vs Trulieve market cap of ~2.7 billion)
image.png.e43663d3d8fbfab11fe07482779ba4d7.png
Trulieve shows revenue and profits growing at 100%+ YoY and a PE of ~15. What am I missing here? Also, how the fuck is gross profit greater than revenue? Will have to download an annual report and figure out how they pulled that off.
4572add80b4bbff9d6942d6944623221.jpg 
It appears that someone at seekingalpha already did the heavy lifting on figuring out their financials....look in the comments for J-PHUNCS explanation. (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4366915-trulieve-buy-robinhooders) They actually do lose money, but by taking advantage of some accounting tactic called "adjustments to biological assets" they show a fat profit. Seems like they can remain "profitable" as long as they continue to grow more and more weed, but that seems like a questionable long-term business plan. At  least it explains the valuation. Fucky indeed!
 
 

I don’t think its that off, they sold 21,000 oz of flower last week. Assume it’s at $300/oz that’s $25MM of revenue a month/$75MM revenue a quarter from flower only. passes the smell test for me if they’re reporting $120MM a quarter company wide.
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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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30 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:


I don’t think its that off, they sold 21,000 oz of flower last week. Assume it’s at $300/oz that’s $25MM of revenue a month/$75MM revenue a quarter from flower only. passes the smell test for me if they’re reporting $120MM a quarter company wide.

They obviously have more financial discipline than most of these shitty  weed companies, but their ability to generate substantial earnings is still not clear to me. There is a limit to how much you can charge for weed because if you charge too much, there are numerous other companies sitting on huge inventories that will undercut your price.  So you're basically a retail operation with low margins. That's what immediately jumped out at me when I saw their reported $177 million net profit on $300 million dollars of sales last year. Earnings of that magnitude are unheard of in their industry, so I simply wondered what their secret sauce was. 

But as it turns out, there really isn't any profit, at least how I like to think about profit. "Adjustments to biological assets" is an accounting sleight of hand that dramatically improves the bottom line. You could theoretically have $0 in revenue and show a huge profit simply by growing a shit ton of weed.  Probably works as long as you are in hyper growth mode, but eventually you need to make actual money.

The purpose of my comment was not to convince you to sell your Truelieve shares, but was simply to answer the questions I asked earlier in my original post....."How do they make so much money?"  and "How can gross profit be significantly higher than revenue?"  The answer doesn't mean Truelieve won't out perform their peers or that the stock can't get to $500. In this market anything is possible. 

 

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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

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Anyone familiar with Rackspace Technologies (RXT)? Looks like a global end to end cloud company HQ’ed out of San Antonio. IPO’d a week back after being private, $2B+ per year in Rev, but still in the red. Down 20%/$5 since it went public, so not really sure what to make of it.

Some really big names like Apollo, JP, GS attached to the company and IPO. Partners with Amazon and Microsoft on some shit.


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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

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3 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Near to mid-term, MRNA's upside from here is limited.  If you get a chance, take your profits.

I figure to sell with pops on news/interim results. Hoping it could make a run into the 90s, but with my recent run it is more likely their vax fails and they run to 9. 

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1655

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:


I don’t think its that off, they sold 21,000 oz of flower last week. Assume it’s at $300/oz that’s $25MM of revenue a month/$75MM revenue a quarter from flower only. passes the smell test for me if they’re reporting $120MM a quarter company wide.

$300 an oz seems...high.  Probably closer to half of that.

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18272

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34 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Anyone familiar with Rackspace Technologies (RXT)? Looks like a global end to end cloud company HQ’ed out of San Antonio. IPO’d a week back after being private, $2B+ per year in Rev, but still in the red. Down 20%/$5 since it went public, so not really sure what to make of it.

Some really big names like Apollo, JP, GS attached to the company and IPO. Partners with Amazon and Microsoft on some shit.


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They were the next big thing 10 years ago. They were going to buy an old shopping in SA and convert it into a giant HQ and were going to add like 5,000 jobs and then reality hit that they don't have a big hiring pool in SA for the type of talent they needed. Their Austin office has grown a lot as a result since that's where they can get staff. I would think that the success of AWS and Azure has stunted their growth potential.

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Solid company.  They were the next big thing 10 years ago. They were going to buy an old shopping in SA and convert it into a giant HQ and were going to add like 5,000 jobs and then reality hit that they don't have a big hiring pool in SA for the type of talent they needed. Their Austin office has grown a lot as a result since that's where they can get staff. I would think that the success of AWS and Azure has stunted their growth potential.

 

 

A few years years ago I was sitting at the bar of a local sports bar watching a game and eating dinner. was shooting the shit with some guy next to me and he was a VP of sales at Rackspace. Amazon and AWS had completely killed their cloud hosting business and Rackspace was just embarking on their strategy of helping customers better implement cloud strategy on AWS and other cloud providers. The guy told me that he couldn't keep good employees because as soon as AMZN was aware of someone at Rackspace that was good, they would cherrypick the guy with an offer that included 100 shares of AMZN stock (was trading around $1000 at the time). So basically a $100K signing bonus. 100 shares of stock was nothing for AMZN, but no way in hell Rackspace could compete with that. He was just gonna have to live with the idea that his best employees were gonna get poached. 

As for the company's future, my biggest concern is they are another private equity fuck job. Loaded up with a shitload of debt and then spun back out into the market to struggle with that debt load. They are currently losing $100 million/yr, have low margins, tepid growth and have to service $4 billion in debt. Apollo Global Management I'm sure made out like bandits. 

Edited by Blotto
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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

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A few years years ago I was sitting at the bar of a local sports bar watching a game and eating dinner. was shooting the shit with some guy next to me and he was a VP of sales at Rackspace. Amazon and AWS had completely killed their cloud hosting business and Rackspace was just embarking on their strategy of helping customers better implement cloud strategy on AWS and other cloud providers. The guy told me that he couldn't keep good employees because as soon as AMZN was aware of someone at Rackspace that was good, they would cherrypick the guy with an offer that included 100 shares of AMZN stock (was trading around $1000 at the time). So basically a $100K signing bonus. 100 shares of stock was nothing for AMZN, but no way in hell Rackspace could compete with that. He was just gonna have to live with the idea that his best employees were gonna get poached. 
As for the company's future, my biggest concern is they are another private equity fuck job. Loaded up with a shitload of debt and then spun back out into the market to struggle with that debt load. They are currently losing $100 million/yr, have low margins, tepid growth and have to service $4 billion in debt. Apollo Global Management I'm sure made out like bandits. 

Great feedback man, thanks. I’ll mark it down as a private equity fuckjob.


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