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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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1 minute ago, RCRanger03 said:

FRSX just donked under $1 and I've doubled my position again. Maybe I've got blinders on with this stonk, but it just has so many catalysts

I stumbled across this article related to a SPAC merger involving  Luminar that will value that company at $3.4 billion.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/24/lidar-startup-luminar-to-go-public-via-3-4-billion-spac-merger/

Different technologies but targeted at the same market. The question I would be asking related to FRSX is whether these guys are just bullshit artists. I looked into them briefly when you first commented on them and they have press releases going back 4 years announcing auto manufacturers evaluating their technology. Yet 4 years later they still have $0 in revenue in a market that is exploding. Classic high risk/high reward scenario to be sure. 

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Errestaurants

Errestaurants 2570

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17 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I just locked in my losses on dogshit NOVN and dogshit AIM.

Thanks a lot surly!  STONNNNKSSS.

Fuck stonks.

Also, small cap biotechs are dogshit.  I'm never buying another one.

Live by the STONK die by the STONK. I'll hold my shitty aim in case it goes up since you sold. Lol. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31987

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Posted (edited)

I made a good hit on a small-cap biotech on a tip from a cousin.  About 400% profit in six months or less while watching it like a hawk around FDA approval of a drug.

But after approval, it became clear that neither management nor the broad market knew shit about the drug or the condition it treated and the economics of treatment and the stock plummeted back to earth.  Always lots of short interest and short disinformation and the long information wasn't much better.

There was a fundamental problem with the FDA approved product and that was that it treated a condition (ESRD) almost exclusively covered by Medicare at a stingy flat rate, so there was no "budget" for any patient or treatment facility to purchase it unless it was an absolute game-changer.  It was good, but not that good..  No analyst, short or long, ever seized on that problem until it was basically too late.

Small cap biotechs embody the irrationality of the market.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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Our "friend" J. Powell is to give a keynote speach tomorrow in Jackson Hole; listening to some of the media talking heads they are saying that he may discuss that the Fed is changing the thinking about inflation and the target rate of 2-2.5%. That inflation has been lower than that for a period of time, so the Fed may be willing to allow inflation to rise above the target rate without any Fed action. 
And this would mean that QE and the brrrrrrrrrrrr machine would be able to continue to run, even in the face of inflation data.
So what does that mean? IMO it is an indicator that rates will stay low, and that the stock market will be able to continue to rebound; well not really rebound as it so near record territory that the Fed will continue policies that stimulate the stock market. 

I am considering closing out my puts, licking my wounds and save some ammo for another day, and ride some of the calls that I bought and see how they treat me.
Good luck fella's, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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Posted (edited)
On 8/24/2020 at 9:21 AM, Blotto said:

Dabbling in my usual summer hurricane options play on gasoline prices (UGA ETF). With so much  refining along the Texas LA coast, UGA always seems to spike when hurricanes threaten. They key is to get out of the trade before the hurricane comes ashore and everyone realizes that gas refining will be fine. Picked up a handful of Sept 28 $22 calls in case these storms blow up. I think I have done this 4 times and made 50%+ returns 3 of those times, and lost about 30% the other time.

Decidedly smaller bet this year, because of the Covid uncertainty fucking up gas demand at the same time. Also, the time to make this bet was really on Friday, and it slipped my mind, so I'm sitting on $.45 rather than the $.30 I could have bought on Friday. Will be quick to bail on these if UGA doesnt continue to rally this morning. 

UGA cant decide what it wants to do. It spiked  above $22 during pre-market trading this morning, but then crashed and opened up down and is currently sitting right around $21. I was gonna bail first thing if the price stayed above $22, but the crash right before market open leaves me around what I paid for these, although its creeping back up. I'm guessing the Covid effect on gasoline consumption is calming the market as a CAT4 bearing down right into a refinery rich area has caused much bigger spikes in the past. Don't really want to hold these overnight, so its basically sell now or try and eek out some gains before 3PM. 

Furk - never took off. Sold half at basically slightly above breakeven, and because I'm a dumbass,  I decided to hold onto the rest and see what Laura brings. Probably lose a little value overnight, but the strike date is Sept 18 so they shouldnt fall off a cliff. 

Edited by Blotto
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SuperSport

SuperSport 1342

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Holding ALT, IBIO, and AIM.  Just shoot me.

Yeah I bailed out of IBIO on Monday to cut my losses. Sold ALT today to lock in a solid gain, but it definitely sucks to think about the near-50% drop since last month's peak. C'est la [stonk] vie...

Might jump back in ALT if falls to the $15 range and I feel like lighting some cash on fire.

Edited by SuperSport
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Continental Op

Continental Op 3934

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7 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Was nio a stonk.  It’s hot right now.  May be time to dump that bad boy

I'm wondering if NIO is the stock for poories who want in on this whole electric car thing but can't afford Tesla and are too proud to buy fractional shares on Robinhood and it's going to continue to run.  

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4640

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2 hours ago, shakahorn said:

What's up with ALPP?  It just jumped over my buy-in point of .062.  Up 26% on the day.

I need to inch just a hair above that and I'm dumping it.

 

1 hour ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

This is where I am as well. I like ALT in the longer term.

LOL I bought at their peak FML. 

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dad

dad 557

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Posted

I got in on XPEV at 23.1 then saw a line go straight down after an initial uptick. I was up like 8% in 5 minutes. Got greedy thinking I'd found the next BIGC. Waited a few more seconds. Refresh. Refresh. Steep red line. Down $300 on 590 shares. SELL. WEAK HANDS DID NOT GET FED BY XPEV TODAY.

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RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, shakahorn said:

What's up with ALPP?  It just jumped over my buy-in point of .062.  Up 26% on the day.

They announced they're contracting Proactive Investors to generate engagement. Other than that I think it's a bounce off the bottom.

Also presenting at LD Micro 500 next week

It's nice not having my accounts neck being stepped on by losses from that position... went from $1k in the red at the beginning of this week to Green for a little bit today

Edited by RCRanger03
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dad

dad 557

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What are some ideal options to move to, I assume not something that tracks the S&P 500 if we anticipate some kind of correction caused by back to school fiasco or election? Other than going to cash of course. I'm just learning so these may seem like real basic common sense suggestions but I have no idea.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

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36 minutes ago, dad said:

What are some ideal options to move to, I assume not something that tracks the S&P 500 if we anticipate some kind of correction caused by back to school fiasco or election? Other than going to cash of course. I'm just learning so these may seem like real basic common sense suggestions but I have no idea.

Logic and reason are dead.  Just go straight up 3x leveraged long sp and outpace everything that actually makes sense. 

 

AlienatedTestyFritillarybutterfly-small.

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dad

dad 557

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Posted
Logic and reason are dead.  Just go straight up 3x leveraged long sp and outpace everything that actually makes sense. 
 
AlienatedTestyFritillarybutterfly-small.gif

I’ve fully embraced the retard and taken full control of my retirement account and siphoned 60% of it out of S&P 500 into individual stock selections. Now I’m 10% YTD instead of negative. Newbs like me shouldn’t be able to do this. It makes it seem like it’s easy when it’s not.
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closetohumping

closetohumping 17778

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14 hours ago, dad said:

I got in on XPEV at 23.1 then saw a line go straight down after an initial uptick. I was up like 8% in 5 minutes. Got greedy thinking I'd found the next BIGC. Waited a few more seconds. Refresh. Refresh. Steep red line. Down $300 on 590 shares. SELL. WEAK HANDS DID NOT GET FED BY XPEV TODAY.

How is this gonna affect nio?

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