Surly #Stonks

[Beau Vine 55853]

6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

So I thought I'd give an April Fools stonk update

my portfolio is now

Cash 99.9%
Long equity  about 50 shares of ZM

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Great movie

 

 

 

Me above.

[Blotto 24002]

Sold the remainder of my Apr 17 puts (275 and 250) this afternoon. Will bank most of that profit but may pick up  some additional May or June puts to go with the remaining July puts I'm still holding. The amount of my trading portfolio that is invested in puts is ~ 10% compared to 30-40% at the peak  of the madness. Probably about 10%  SPY puts , 20% equities and 70% cash in my trading account now. I'm ready to see this bitch head back up, but I haven't started buying back in yet. 

[52-80 19377]

After these few weeks moonlighting as an active swing trader, trading outcome is barely behind the indices, even with moderately high beta.  Not too bad, decently fun, and I've learned to definitely not quit my day job. 

Having gone to cash or cash equivalents before March (mostly by coincidence), net result is being sheltered from the big slide.

Now about 50% back into equities, mostly long, with some speculative short positions.

 

 

 

[B00M 6729]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Now about 50% back into equities, mostly long, with some speculative short positions.

 

 

 

50%? You're braver than i am... I'm maybe 10% back in and expecting some carnage this week.

[Anastasis 23711]

I’m about 40% in With trading account and my butthole is clinched up like a mothefucker. Averaging in slowly with the retirement account. 

[52-80 19377]

6 hours ago, B00M said:

50%? You're braver than i am... I'm maybe 10% back in and expecting some carnage this week.

They've been recent trickle buys so I'd like to think I got them at a discount - so 1 step ahead from the hodlers.  That said, my angus is sufficiently peppered.

[BTW 370]

I'm wading back in by selling some puts.

[52-80 19377]

6 minutes ago, BTW said:

I'm wading back in by selling some puts.

well well well look at mister optimist over here

[Wally Fairway 5673]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

well well well look at mister optimist over here

yeah - I get that, but what is there to be optimistic about?
that the spread of COVID-19 will slow down in 3-4 weeks, maybe; that the deaths will be between 100,000 and 200,000 in the US.
I've made a few bucks buying puts into this mess, not because I like what is happening but because I'm not trying to turn the market around buying investments on an optimistic outlook
maybe NY, and my local Michy news, are overly selling how bad it is - but then I see that Florida, Georgia and others have only put stay at home orders in place this week and it leads me to think that they will start to have their problems in late April or May.

[Anastasis 23711]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

yeah - I get that, but what is there to be optimistic about?
that the spread of COVID-19 will slow down in 3-4 weeks, maybe; that the deaths will be between 100,000 and 200,000 in the US.
I've made a few bucks buying puts into this mess, not because I like what is happening but because I'm not trying to turn the market around buying investments on an optimistic outlook
maybe NY, and my local Michy news, are overly selling how bad it is - but then I see that Florida, Georgia and others have only put stay at home orders in place this week and it leads me to think that they will start to have their problems in late April or May.

Florida peaks 1-2 week of may. Georgia 3-4 week of april.  Texas about same time as florida.  At least per these projections. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Anastasis 23711]

Man I got caught on the wrong fucking side of a swing trade using 3x leveraged dow index with no fucking stop in place. Fuck that hurt.  Erased half of my gains on the day. 

[McCroskey 1510]

Got back in on BA today at $121.16.  Considering 2 days ago I thought about dipping my toes back in at ~$150ish, I feel pretty good.  Last week or the week before (the days are all running together now) I bought at $119 and stupidly sold at $145, right before it shot up to the $180s.  Here's to a repeat.

[Wally Fairway 5673]

I haven't done anything for the last couple of days, other than watch theta eat at the value of my puts.
Theta is a cold hearted bitch who doesn't give a shit, on the other had I've started to dabble on a very small basis at selling near date covered OTM calls to make theta work for me.

[Wally Fairway 5673]

Sold my Monday 4/6 expiry SPY puts to harvest the gain (bought them monday), past that I have one small lot expiring 4/9, then the rest are 4/15 and longer (all the way to 3/19/21). 

There is too much nerves to hold this close expiration shit, too much risk of a one or two day blip to eat all the value.
I expect that the numbers (deaths, intubated, ICU, hospitalized, etc) over the weekend will shock some who aren't watching the trajectory of this, although it seems like NYC is nearing the peak of new positive tests.

[Continental Op 3934]

Today was not a good day for my #stonks account.  5/15 SPY, DIS, and VNQ puts all took a real beating.

[Anastasis 23711]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Have we (Texas) dramatically curbed our peak date per this model since you posted last Thursday?  I recall looking at this last week projecting a May 6th date for hospitalizations and deaths. This now shows around 4/19-4/20. 

They updated their projections to reflect new information on the impact of social distancing, and specifically its impact on timing of the peak.  National peak stayed same but certain states like texas appear to have moved much earlier.  They also down revised the total deaths by 12k or so. 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[Wally Fairway 5673]

It was a bad day to be short equity, accordingly I felt compelled to change my avatar. 

[Continental Op 3934]

Ha this is unbelievable.

[52-80 19377]

we're about 5 days from my stepping out of the market, so if i re-enter (with the rest of my funds) after that, it would have been a net loss.

 

is it plausible to have 5 green days in a row?  who the fuck even knows anymore.... 

[Blotto 24002]

As alluded to up above, I'm largely in cash and not looking to make any move significant long term moves, BUT I have been buying short expiry SPY straddles like a motherfucker. If the market insists on moving 2-5% every damn day, I'll ride that gravy train for as long as its available. You don't even have to guess which direction the damn thing will move. Here's some data on SPY since the market bottomed on March 23rd. 

 

 

In the last 12 days of trading, the smallest difference between the daily high and low is $7.00+. That's fucking insane. The days highlighted in gray are days when SPY had options expiring that day (MWF). Starting on  3/27, I have been blindly buying at the money straddles right at market close for the SPY options expiring the next trading session. These have recently been running at about $6 or $7 per straddle.

For example, last Friday I bought SPY straddles (248 strike )for $6.75 each. When the market opened on Monday, I sold the calls for $10.20 and held onto the puts hoping for a reversal, but they expired worthless. Still good for a ~50% return and could have been much more profitable had I held onto the calls longer. But I have no idea what the market is going to do from hour to hour, so I sold early to lock in a profit.

Rinse, repeat this afternoon. I picked up straddles (264 strike) for about $6.50 each, so we'll see how she pans out. Worst case, even if the market opens dead nuts on the strike price tomorrow, my position will probably only be down ~20% or less, and I can decide if I want to cut bait or hold for some movement later in the day. Each of my 4 attempts so far have yielded profits of at least 50%, so I'm likely holding until at least noon.

And yes, I am absolutely aware that this simplistic strategy can and probably will fail soon once these crazy price swings finally end. But for now, I'm swinging blindly until I get burned a couple of times. This is the #STONKS thread, not the #PrudentFinancialAdvice thread. Plus I'm sitting on a lot of house money from the last 6 weeks,  and fucking COVID took away sports and poker. 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Blotto

[Wally Fairway 5673]

@Blotto leading the #stonk life - well to hell brother!

Also, in case you didn't know it  COVID has led to uncertainty and volatility in the investment markets. I know this because I was sent the following update to the SPY prospectus

SPDR® S&P 500® ETF TRUST (the “Trust”) (A Unit Investment Trust) Supplement dated March 25, 2020 to the Prospectus dated January 16, 2020 Effective immediately, the “Equity Investing Risk” of the sub-section entitled “Principal Risks of Investing in the Trust” within the section entitled “Summary” on pages 4 and 5 of the Prospectus is hereby deleted and replaced in its entirety as follows: Equity Investing and Market Risk. An investment in the Trust involves risks similar to those of investing in any fund of equity securities, such as market fluctuations caused by such factors as economic and political developments, changes in interest rates, perceived trends in securities prices, war, acts of terrorism, the spread of infectious disease or other public health issues. Local, regional or global events such as war, acts of terrorism, the spread of infectious disease or other public health issues, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on the Trust and its investments and could result in increased premiums or discounts to the Trust’s net asset value. An investment in the Trust is subject to the risks of any investment in a broadly based portfolio of equity securities, including the risk that the general level of stock prices may decline, thereby adversely affecting the value of such investment. The value of Portfolio Securities may fluctuate in accordance with changes in the financial condition of the issuers of Portfolio Securities, the value of equity securities generally and other factors. The identity and weighting of Index Securities and the Portfolio Securities change from time to time. The financial condition of issuers of Portfolio Securities may become impaired or the general condition of the stock market may deteriorate, either of which may cause a decrease in the value of the Portfolio and thus in the value of Units. Since the Trust is not actively managed, the adverse financial condition of an issuer will not result in its elimination from the Portfolio unless such issuer is removed from the Index. Equity securities are susceptible to general stock market fluctuations and to volatile increases and decreases in value as market confidence in and perceptions of their issuers change. These investor perceptions are based on various and unpredictable factors, including expectations regarding government, economic, monetary and fiscal policies, inflation and interest rates, economic expansion or contraction, and global or regional political, economic and banking crises, as well as war, acts of terrorism and the spread of infectious disease or other public health issues. An outbreak of infectious respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 was first detected in China in December 2019 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020. This coronavirus has resulted in travel restrictions, restrictions on gatherings of people (including closings of, or limitations on, dining and entertainment establishments, as well as schools and universities), closed businesses (or businesses that are restricted in their operations), closed international borders, enhanced health screenings at ports of entry and elsewhere, disruption of and delays in healthcare service preparation and delivery, prolonged quarantines, cancellations, supply chain disruptions, and lower consumer demand, as well as general concern and uncertainty. The impact of COVID-19, and other infectious disease outbreaks that may arise in the future, could adversely affect the economies of many nations or the entire global economy, individual issuers and capital markets in ways that cannot be foreseen. Public health crises caused by the COVID-19 outbreak may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks in certain countries or globally. The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak cannot be determined with certainty. The risk of further spreading of COVID-19 has led to significant uncertainty and volatility [/spoiler[

Well that if I didn't already know about this, I'm glad they are reaching out to tell me, because otherwise I'd have thought the world had gone bat shit crazy

[Blotto 24002]

Out at $7.00 on the call side above, now just need SPY to fall back to earth to pick up value on my basically worthless puts. Great thing about the short trading week is tomorrow and Monday are also expiration dates.

[Anastasis 23711]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Out at $7.00 on the call side above, now just need SPY to fall back to earth to pick up value on my basically worthless puts. Great thing about the short trading week is tomorrow and Monday are also expiration dates.

Are you buying them at the same strike?

[Blotto 24002]

Put/calls with the same strike price and same expiration. So my 264 puts are not likely to be worth much of anything at all, unless the market takes a big shit between now and 3PM. Selling at 7.00 basically prevented me from losing anything on the trade, but pretty much also caps my gain unless there is a big reversal and the puts increase in value. As you get later in the day, its gets a bit sketchy because that time premium decays pretty fast on the day of expiration and the OTM side of the straddle has no intrinsic value, obviously. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Blotto

[Wally Fairway 5673]

@Blotto thanks for pointing out the volatility in this....now I'm in on 4/9 SPY $270 straddle, to see how it plays out. 
Tomorrow will be interesting, as the long weekend could make people more nervous to keep short term holding
#stonklife

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19420]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

@Blotto thanks for pointing out the volatility in this....now I'm in on 4/9 SPY $270 straddle, to see how it plays out. 
Tomorrow will be interesting, as the long weekend could make people more nervous to keep short term holding
#stonklife

 

This market is never going down again.  Take out all home equity, cash in the kids' college tuition savings accounts, sell blood and put it ALL IN.

ALL.  OF.  IT.

[52-80 19377]

My primary trading account was only unlocked for covered/protective options trades.  While waiting for approval for more speculative trading, I played around with TDameritrades simulated platform.

Was massively profitable both with calls and puts.  More than doubled premiums for contacts for BA/USO/UNH.

So what this means is that I blew my wad of luck on monopoly money, right? 

 

[Anastasis 23711]

OK. I bought 1 on #bothsides of 273 right before close for grins.  Sorry guys, but we are virtually assured of a sideways close. 

[Continental Op 3934]

30% of Disney's revenue in the form of the parks is going to spend an entire quarter dormant but let's jack the price up by 7% in after hours trading because the Disney+ numbers look good.  #pricedin.

[CooterBrown 18285]

My primary trading account was only unlocked for covered/protective options trades.  While waiting for approval for more speculative trading, I played around with TDameritrades simulated platform.
Was massively profitable both with calls and puts.  More than doubled premiums for contacts for BA/USO/UNH.
So what this means is that I blew my wad of luck on monopoly money, right? 
 

Does the simulator always assume there’s a buyer for your options?

[Anastasis 23711]

10 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

30% of Disney's revenue in the form of the parks is going to spend an entire quarter dormant but let's jack the price up by 7% in after hours trading because the Disney+ numbers look good.  #pricedin.

#stilllovingit

[Blotto 24002]

1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

30% of Disney's revenue in the form of the parks is going to spend an entire quarter dormant but let's jack the price up by 7% in after hours trading because the Disney+ numbers look good.  #pricedin.

I've been trying to talk myself out of buying DIS puts for a couple of days now. This spike up in price on news that will do nothing to offset the massive loss of revenue staring Disney in the face.....fuck it, I'm buying puts tomorrow. Not sure if I'll go past the next earnings call or the Q3 call.

And I wonder how many Verizon customers are lumped into that 50 million sub level. Whatever Verizon paid to Disney, I'm guessing its nowhere close to the full $8/mo retail cost. Still at least they got the news out now instead of buried in an earnings call full of what I expect will be pretty ugly. Hopefully this after hours movement holds til the market opens. While they have some diversification in their business, only the Disney+ is positioned to grow during Coronapacolypse. And 50 million subscribers isnt nearly enough for this bullshit:

 Shit, Disney spent a good portion of 2016-2019 bouncing around $90-$110 per share and that was without Covid19 dick-slapping Mickey silly. ESPN fucked (both ad revenue and cord cutting), movie revenue fucked, parks/cruises double fucked.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Blotto

[ChiTownDoc 21341]

13 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I've been trying to talk myself out of buying DIS puts for a couple of days now. This spike up in price on news that will do nothing to offset the massive loss of revenue staring Disney in the face.....fuck it, I'm buying puts tomorrow. Not sure if I'll go past the next earnings call or the Q3 call.

And I wonder how many Verizon customers are lumped into that 50 million sub level. Whatever Verizon paid to Disney, I'm guessing its nowhere close to the full $8/mo retail cost. Still at least they got the news out now instead of buried in an earnings call full of what I expect will be pretty ugly. Hopefully this after hours movement holds til the market opens. While they have some diversification in their business, only the Disney+ is positioned to grow during Coronapacolypse. And 50 million subscribers isnt nearly enough for this bullshit:

 Shit, Disney spent a good portion of 2016-2019 bouncing around $90-$110 per share and that was without Covid19 dick-slapping Mickey silly. ESPN fucked (both ad revenue and cord cutting), movie revenue fucked, parks/cruises double fucked.

Far from crazy.  Buying puts in anything looks good right now.  Of course it’s bizarro world so probably runs another 10% on our ass.  Fuck 

[52-80 19377]

6 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Does the simulator always assume there’s a buyer for your options?

It buys at bid (spread for these are fairly low anyway), and these are realistic-sized volumes

[Wally Fairway 5673]

6 hours ago, Anastasis said:

OK. I bought 1 on #bothsides of 273 right before close for grins.  Sorry guys, but we are virtually assured of a sideways close. 

Yeah nothing will kill volatility faster than #stonk players entering the game

[Wally Fairway 5673]

out of my 4/9 $SPY call at $8.25 - so up about 24% on the trade, and seeing what happens with the put, it dropped right at the open but anything from that side is a bonus

[Blotto 24002]

Yeah I bought at 274 straddles and closed out the calls for exactly I paid for straddle. Free puts at a 274 strike price essentially. Let's see if this market enthusiasm holds entering a 3 day weekend.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Blotto

[Anastasis 23711]

Yeah, sold the call I picked up.  Covered the price of the put plus a few rounds. Thanks for #stonking Blotto. 

[Blotto 24002]

Jumped in on some DIS puts for Sept (95 strike). Admittedly, I may be completely wrong about how fucked Disney is, but if I'm correct  the magnitude of the  revenue shortfall should be apparent by the time they release their Q3 numbers. Over 1/3 of their revenue comes from the Parks division, and even if they have the balls to open up their parks, how many people are going to a.) feel comfortable milling around those parks b.)  feel comfortable loading up their credit cards to pay for the experience? #STONKS

[hornbri 1508]

33 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Jumped in on some DIS puts for Sept (95 strike). Admittedly, I may be completely wrong about how fucked Disney is, but if I'm correct  the magnitude of the  revenue shortfall should be apparent by the time they release their Q3 numbers. Over 1/3 of their revenue comes from the Parks division, and even if they have the balls to open up their parks, how many people are going to a.) feel comfortable milling around those parks b.)  feel comfortable loading up their credit cards to pay for the experience? #STONKS

That is a interesting one. We have a trip for the end of may first week of June we have not cancelled. But likely will just due to the fact the park might not be open. However we are also looking at rescheduling as soon as we can. I think a lot of people will be eager to be back. I also think (at least for the US) many people will avoid international vacations so US desitnations will see a quicker recovery. 

I dont think the parks have to get back to 100% revenue to justify the current stock price. I think the reoccuing revenue from Disney+ and if the parks get to 70% revenue is more then enough to justify the current price. 

[Blotto 24002]

1 hour ago, hornbri said:

That is a interesting one. We have a trip for the end of may first week of June we have not cancelled. But likely will just due to the fact the park might not be open. However we are also looking at rescheduling as soon as we can. I think a lot of people will be eager to be back. I also think (at least for the US) many people will avoid international vacations so US desitnations will see a quicker recovery. 

I dont think the parks have to get back to 100% revenue to justify the current stock price. I think the reoccuing revenue from Disney+ and if the parks get to 70% revenue is more then enough to justify the current price. 

Lots of people in this country won't have the luxury of June trips to Disney, Disney cruises etc...but there's more to it than parks.   The collection of all the sports networks is probably the single biggest reason people still subscribe to cable packages. With no sports, I am guessing cord cutting accelerates. ESPN is certainly losing ad revenue with no sports on.  How many people are still paying for ESPN Plus with no sports on? How about movies? They have basically stopped production on new movies, are not seeing ticket revenues from movies ready to go.

So they have growth in the small piece of the pie, and what I am guessing will be  significant shortfalls on the major revenue contributors. Also notice that direct to consumer only shows up on the revenue pie, not the operating income pie. Disney Plus is a money losing business and Disney's own forecasts project  profitability in that business in 5 years. So yeah they can grow subscribers, but depending on the loss they are taking to do that, it doesn't improve profitability. 

Admittedly a gamble, but I just see Disney as particularly exposed. And while I am relieved to see the cases/deaths starting to level off, I don't think there's any way in hell they open those parks before June. So 2 months out of the quarter with negligible revenue from their largest revenue contributor, and they still have to maintain all those properties. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Blotto

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Puts are not stonks. Short dated, way OTM calls are living the stonk life.

[Wally Fairway 5673]

Let's see if earnings release has much of an effect on this weeks #stonks, just under 1,000 companies to report this week

[Blotto 24002]

Well my strategy of blindly buying straddles on SPY didnt pay off over the weekend as the market was relatively calm compared to the last couple of weeks. Lost about 15% on the overall trade as I sold the puts early enough in the day that I didn't get burned too badly by the afternoon rally. Will probably be a bit more selective on when I choose to buy straddles (weekends) on the major indexes. On the flip side, earnings calls may start to juice things up a bit, and the same approach with individuals companies seems to have some potential as well. 

[52-80 19377]

USO 07/17/2020 5.50 C.  let's do it baby.

 

if it goes lower than that, most of us are fucked anyway. 

[Beau Vine 55853]

On 4/8/2020 at 3:24 PM, 52-80 said:

My primary trading account was only unlocked for covered/protective options trades.  While waiting for approval for more speculative trading, I played around with TDameritrades simulated platform.

Was massively profitable both with calls and puts.  More than doubled premiums for contacts for BA/USO/UNH

It's almost like TD Ameritrade wants you to put money in there and make trades, huh?

[Wally Fairway 5673]

56 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Well my strategy of blindly buying straddles on SPY didnt pay off over the weekend as the market was relatively calm compared to the last couple of weeks. Lost about 15% on the overall trade as I sold the puts early enough in the day that I didn't get burned too badly by the afternoon rally. Will probably be a bit more selective on when I choose to buy straddles (weekends) on the major indexes. On the flip side, earnings calls may start to juice things up a bit, and the same approach with individuals companies seems to have some potential as well. 

Yup - I has a straddle at $280, sold have the puts at $7 then watched the rest of it slip away to around $4 and the loss on the calls made it a small loss; sitting on a DIS $108 straddle that I picked up on Thursday - slightly profitable right now, and its amazing to me that DIS isn't falling with parks, Cruise ships and ESPN all closed for business, like Disney+ can keep the company going.
I'm sure there are profits to be made tomorrow, as I'm not sitting on any spreads, straddles or strangles with that date. 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[52-80 19377]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

It's almost like TD Ameritrade wants you to put money in there and make trades, huh?

Got the gambling approval today from my brokerage, and literally every position in the TD monopoly account went red intra-day.

 

Coincidences have a sense of humor

[GRHorn 105]

$Roku up 11% AH after preliminary Q1 results release. Withdraws full year guidance, but revs beat and streaming hours up 49% YoY. Could really run tomorrow. When Roku beats it moves 

[Wally Fairway 5673]

DIS - hasn't cut dividends (next declaration date is end of June), per DIS reports they have 4 segments - 
- Parks experiences & products - all parks are closed, no reopen date (Disneyland, DisneyWorld, Tokyo Disney, Paris DIsney, Hong Kong Disney, Shanghai Disney all closed)
- Media Networks - ESPN, Disney channel, ABC, FX, National Geographic, Freeform - ESPN has to be hurting, no idea about the other channels
- Studio Experience - movies, Marvel, Disney, Pixar, Blue Sky, 20th Century, Serchlight - I think all movie production has been halted, and film release delay until theater reopen
- Direct to Customer - Disney+, ESPN+, hulu, hostar - this one seems to be doing well, but it can't offset parks, movies and ESPN

I've got my finger on the trigger of 7/17 $110 puts at $12 (current price about $105.50), looking that long to allow the daily Fed pump, market enthusiasm time to dissipate.
So Surly - pull the #stonk trigger or is it Don Quixote tilting against the fed?