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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21341

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

DIS - hasn't cut dividends (next declaration date is end of June), per DIS reports they have 4 segments - 
- Parks experiences & products - all parks are closed, no reopen date (Disneyland, DisneyWorld, Tokyo Disney, Paris DIsney, Hong Kong Disney, Shanghai Disney all closed)
- Media Networks - ESPN, Disney channel, ABC, FX, National Geographic, Freeform - ESPN has to be hurting, no idea about the other channels
- Studio Experience - movies, Marvel, Disney, Pixar, Blue Sky, 20th Century, Serchlight - I think all movie production has been halted, and film release delay until theater reopen
- Direct to Customer - Disney+, ESPN+, hulu, hostar - this one seems to be doing well, but it can't offset parks, movies and ESPN

I've got my finger on the trigger of 7/17 $110 puts at $12 (current price about $105.50), looking that long to allow the daily Fed pump, market enthusiasm time to dissipate.
So Surly - pull the #stonk trigger or is it Don Quixote tilting against the fed?

As long as you can afford it, that’s a solid play.  Someone showed a graph of economy losing 6Tr vs fed infusion...numbers have you in right side but it ain’t easy being a bear these days.  

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Hank_Hill
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Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
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The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

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As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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52-80

52-80 19377

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I got my first hit of options crack and bro, this bust open my hymen in the most extreme way.

 

MSFT apr 24 175 calls.  Was priced 0.87$ at night when I was interested in it.  Rose to 2$ in pre-market, so I chased it and bought at 2.09$.  now it's 3.45$ and climbing.

 

I think Microsoft will continue to climb so I'll hold onto it for a few more days.  But I can see how motherfuckers go broke playing this game

 

(Other positions are long dated [but low-premium!] so they're predictably flat)

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Blotto

Blotto 24002

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My nomination for most retarded market valuation changes often, but SPCE sneaks in there occasionally. In February, they were sporting an $8 Billion dollar market cap fresh off reporting their FY 2019 numbers of a $210 Million dollar loss on revenues of $4 million. Their business plan calls for  $30 million in revenue this year, primarily from space tourism flights, but we're heading into May and they don't yet have FAA approval to take commercial passengers. Probably no need to worry as Branson has been setting and then delaying dates for  the initial commercial flight since about 2013. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5673

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19 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

As long as you can afford it, that’s a solid play.  Someone showed a graph of economy losing 6Tr vs fed infusion...numbers have you in right side but it ain’t easy being a bear these days.  

Wrong

Obv, the correct answer is "that's already baked into the market pricing"

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

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23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Make your guess for tomorrows first time unemployment claims and how the market will be affected (how will it open)

5.8 million first time claims - market S&P opens up 25-40 points (market has already taken that into account)

Blotto daily straddle worked out well today.  Maybe a little run in the afternoon to cash out something on the other side.  Rinse and repeat. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24002

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15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Blotto daily straddle worked out well today.  Maybe a little run in the afternoon to cash out something on the other side.  Rinse and repeat. 

Yeah, I didnt opt in with that strategy today, but it looks like it would have resulted in  about 50% profit regardless of what happens on the call side. Premiums were cheaper than they were last week, so the big drop in market open is what you are looking for allowing you to sell early to lock in profits, and see what happens later in the day with your essentially worthless calls. 

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bluto

bluto 4995

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A couple Stonks to watch 
OKTA and WORK 
OKTA at ATHs and potential breakout if market doesn’t shit bed. 
 
 
Work-inverse head and shoulders. 

I’ve been on/off work all ‘season’ and finally caught em on a rocket ship day today. Damn that felt great and I think it has another 10-20% run on it based on the numbers msft teams has announced

But to make this post Stonks certified, I’m buying a shit ton of shares of DIIBF... Dorel industries from Canada. They own a handful of the biggest bicycle brands and I think bike sales have taken off. Fair warning, the chart/profile is not pretty but f it, let’s roll!
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19420

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A big lesson I’ve learned is Canadian companies on the stock exchange are about as trustworthy as the Chinese companies.  I’m not sure if that applies to bicycle companies, but a ton of their resource / basic materials companies are flat out scam stocks.

Good luck getting any kind of position size on a sub $2 stock that trades 20,000 shares a day.  You will be the market.

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52-80

52-80 19377

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

A big lesson I’ve learned is Canadian companies on the stock exchange are about as trustworthy as the Chinese companies.  I’m not sure if that applies to bicycle companies, but a ton of their resource / basic materials companies are flat out scam stocks.

Good luck getting any kind of position size on a sub $2 stock that trades 20,000 shares a day.  You will be the market.

that's true, but dorel is a long time, legit company. 

doesn't mean they arent cooking their books.  i was shorting a chinese adr that i think is, but only after i entered the position broker said we're gonna charge you daily fees because stock is hard to borrow.  that wasnt worth the squeeze so i got out...next day broker said oh by the way, its no longer hard to borrow so we'll remove the fees.  wtf

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

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4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

that's true, but dorel is a long time, legit company. 

doesn't mean they arent cooking their books.  i was shorting a chinese adr that i think is, but only after i entered the position broker said we're gonna charge you daily fees because stock is hard to borrow.  that wasnt worth the squeeze so i got out...next day broker said oh by the way, its no longer hard to borrow so we'll remove the fees.  wtf

You have a broker that actually calls you?  You must swing a log. 

Edited by Anastasis
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52-80

52-80 19377

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On 4/14/2020 at 8:41 PM, 52-80 said:

MSFT apr 24 175 calls.  Was priced 0.87$ at night when I was interested in it.  Rose to 2$ in pre-market, so I chased it and bought at 2.09$.  now it's 3.45$ and climbing.

 

Got out at 4.0$, and then 5.0$. 

 

Unfortunately I didn't gamble enough for a lambo, or even a down payment on one.  Fun game tho

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

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12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Snapchat puts, bought this morning at 0.26c

 

Sold half at 0.50c, and the rest at 0.60c....now it's 0.80c

 

Didn't want to autoexercise it anyway cuz fuck holding that turd.  But man this game is fun

Can you wave your magic wand at SPCE. I need a sharp break south of 18. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5673

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All it took was for Surly #stonk players to start straddles and poof the market settles away from big swings, though options are still pricier than they were in Feb.
So I've started to look at 5-7 straddles, you can get in at much lower prices but you give up a balanced price point and are playing for consistent up or down price swings within that timeframe. 
Right now I've got some on both SPY and DIS - both lean to the down side, so I'm sure the brrrr machine will zero out any value in it.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

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Just now, Wally Fairway said:

All it took was for Surly #stonk players to start straddles and poof the market settles away from big swings, though options are still pricier than they were in Feb.

What was the range today?  Was there money to be made sitting on a straddle?  I picked one up right before close and will prob right another over the weekend. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5673

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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What was the range today?  Was there money to be made sitting on a straddle?  I picked one up right before close and will prob right another over the weekend. 

$275.76 - $280.03, closed at $279.10 and next day options are running about.
A 4/17/20  $279 or $280 spread would cost about $4.64 - $4.67, so you have to get in/out at the low/high for the day to make anything. 
You could look at a 4/17 straddle of P $277 for $1.50 and C $281 for $1.45 - but you'd have to see SPY at $274 or $285 to make a profit, unless it swings and you can sell one for a profit bigger than the other side losses. 

A 4/24/20 straddle, for which you are paying up for more time/theta (a soul stealing bitch) would be like P $273 for $4.10 (pricey on the put side) and C $284 for $3.55 - so you'd need a move to $266.50 or $291.50 to profit at expiration, but it gives you 8 days to see movement and reduce holdings along the way but that could be a pretty wide spread that SPY doesn't cross and theta will fuck you in the next week.
The options market is still pricier on the downside than on the upside, even with solid run since 3/24. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24002

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

What was the range today?  Was there money to be made sitting on a straddle?  I picked one up right before close and will prob right another over the weekend. 

Yeah I picked up some straddles expiring tomorrow on SPY at 279 right at the close (paid $4.60 for each straddle).....and now SPY is at 288. Hope to hell this holds til tomorrow morning, so I can ditch these calls, lulz. Seems like a bit of an over reaction if this is just a reaction to the Gilead trial news. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

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17 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Seems like a bit of an over reaction if this is just a reaction to the Gilead trial news. 

If it is a reaction to the Gilead leak of info, it is totally an overreaction. And I am on the same strike. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24002

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11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If it is a reaction to the Gilead leak of info, it is totally an overreaction. And I am on the same strike. 

seems to be the driving force for the afterhours movement. I guess we can all resume life as usual, catch a severe case of the 'Rona, have our insurance companies kick a check out to Gilead for the remdesivir, and just pretend that none of this ever happened.

Sadly, it appears SPY is already falling back down to earth, so we probably won't get a full double up in the morning. Ideally there will still be enough profit on the call side to sell at market open. 

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hornbri

hornbri 1508

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35 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Sadly, it appears SPY is already falling back down to earth, so we probably won't get a full double up in the morning. Ideally there will still be enough profit on the call side to sell at market open. 

Don't worry it is climbing again. 

image.thumb.png.bdc245c302cf037174604eb9acf29909.png

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Blotto

Blotto 24002

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If SPY opens anywhere close to 288+ tomorrow, I think I immediately dump all my profits on these straddles straight into Monday 4/20 puts. 285, 280....who knows. I'll probably give it all right back in one session, but thats the way the gamble go. This will be  me on Sunday night checking futures prices

giphy.gif 

TLDR - SPY most likely hits 300 on Monday. 

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52-80

52-80 19377

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

If SPY opens anywhere close to 288+ tomorrow, I think I immediately dump all my profits on these straddles straight into Monday 4/20 puts. 285, 280....who knows. I'll probably give it all right back in one session, but thats the way the gamble go. This will be  me on Sunday night checking futures prices

giphy.gif 

TLDR - SPY most likely hits 300 on Monday. 

I'm with u bro ride or die.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5673

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Quite the debate I'm having with myself today:

Head - market correction seems unstoppable, brrrrrr machine, rona news machine turned to upside, market has already priced in bad news, you can't beat the hype machine
Gut - opportunity to buy puts at favorable prices, inevitable rona 2nd wave resurgence, lows will be tested by June

Investment account - WTF are you doing?

#stonklife

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