Surly #Stonks

[McCroskey 1,510]

Got back in on BA today at $121.16.  Considering 2 days ago I thought about dipping my toes back in at ~$150ish, I feel pretty good.  Last week or the week before (the days are all running together now) I bought at $119 and stupidly sold at $145, right before it shot up to the $180s.  Here's to a repeat.

Me with BA yesterday:


Me with BA today:



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fudge Nuggets 19,449]

“They” are setting things up for the ultimate sell in May and go away ever.

[Blotto 24,010]

Come on SPY, hold another 15 minutes...

[Anastasis 23,714]

you cashing the call out at open?  or gonna let the market run a bit?

[Blotto 24,010]

I got out of the calls at $6.50. Will hold the puts for a bit. 

[The People’s Elbow 707]

RCUS blowing out right now. Up ~20%. Strangle gonna pay off. 

[Anastasis 23,714]

1 minute ago, The People’s Elbow said:

RCUS blowing out right now. Up ~20%. Strangle gonna pay off. 

What's the news on Arcus?

[Anastasis 23,714]

3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I got out of the calls at $6.50. Will hold the puts for a bit. 

mine filled at 6.37. 

Shorting GILD today on principle for their garbage ass leak. 

[52-80 19,377]

i was staring hard at shorting AMC and it went +60% on news theyre issuing more debt?

gap and abercrombie and other shit grade apparels co with tons of debt went up 10%...rrriiightt

[The People’s Elbow 707]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What's the news on Arcus?

News of potential Gilead partnership. I got the strangle because I thought I would catch a sell off from them blowing up a couple days ago on COVID rumors. Shows how much I know. 

[Blotto 24,010]

9 hours ago, Blotto said:

I got out of the calls at $6.50. Will hold the puts for a bit. 

Ended up selling my puts early afternoon for a robust $0.10, so bought the straddles for $4.60 and exited for $6.60. Not complaining, but I am somewhat surprised that I could have gotten a higher return holding all the way til close. Would have been sweating things around 1:30 however, and probably sold out at around break even with the close fast approaching.

I didnt straddle for Monday and instead just chose to drop half my profits from today's straddle only on Monday puts (285 strike). Probably guarantees another big run up, so plan accordingly and profit from my dumbassery.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Blotto

[Anastasis 23,714]

I didn’t take a stake in Monday. Been lucky with those straddles so far. Spce is fucking garbage but it wouldn’t break below 18 so I ate that one. Outside of one bad trade where I basically detonated 10k in under an hour, it’s been a pretty fun run. 

[52-80 19,377]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Ended up selling my puts early afternoon for a robust $0.10, so bought the straddles for $4.60 and exited for $6.60. Not complaining, but I am somewhat surprised that I could have gotten a higher return holding all the way til close. Would have been sweating things around 1:30 however, and probably sold out at around break even with the close fast approaching.

I didnt straddle for Monday and instead just chose to drop half my profits from today's straddle only on Monday puts (285 strike). Probably guarantees another big run up, so plan accordingly and profit from my dumbassery.

Spy 4/22 280p let's do this goddamn thing

I'm also long VXX so it could be a double buttfucking if it goes wrong

[Blotto 24,010]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Spy 4/22 280p let's do this goddamn thing

I'm also long VXX so it could be a double buttfucking if it goes wrong

Well, double buttfuckings should cost more, to be honest.

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

I didnt straddle for Monday and instead just chose to drop half my profits from today's straddle only on Monday puts (285 strike). Probably guarantees another big run up, so plan accordingly and profit from my dumbassery.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,449]

Along the lines of the Fed propping up the markets; a wise man once said "A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long."

That's where we are.

[workswithseed 2,204]

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Along the lines of the Fed propping up the markets; a wise man once said "A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long."

That's where we are.

I'll be okay if it's A Pimp Named Slickback

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Along the lines of the Fed propping up the markets; a wise man once said "A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long."

That's where we are.

The difference is that the market can be wrong for a long time and it is expensive to bet against it. You can be right about a stock, or the market, and lose at lot (maybe everything) while the run continues, or before the bubble bursts.

Y'all might be too young, but that's what happened with LTCM when they nearly caused a market failure leading to a NYFed backed bailout to save a global financial collapse.

http://www.investmentreview.com/print-archives/winter-1999/the-story-of-long-term-capital-management-752/

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

Here is a sign that the market is likely to rise - short interest is a the highest level in years

WSJ article  https://www.wsj.com/articles/bets-against-the-stock-market-rise-to-highest-level-in-years-11587288601

Quote

Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years.

Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago.

Spoiler

Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years.

Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago.

Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at lower prices and keep the difference as profit. Among the individual companies they have targeted in recent weeks are travel-related firms, including Carnival Corp., CCL 5.99% Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., RCL 9.94% Marriott International Inc. MAR 4.81% and Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN 8.54%

Hedging Your BetsBets against the SPY ETF, which tracks theS&P 500, have jumped in 2020.SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust short interestSource: S3 Partners

.billion2016’17’18’19’200102030405060$70

Those bets come during a wild year for investors who are struggling to reconcile the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the population and economy. The S&P 500 suffered its fastest drop from a record to a bear market in history—ultimately falling 34% between Feb. 19 and March 23. Its 28% rebound since then has also been brisk, leaving some investors anxious about the strength of the rally when so much remains unknown.

 

“We’ve really seen a significant bounceback in the last three weeks at levels that I think are too quick,” said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust. His firm recently bet against the Nasdaq-100, on the belief that technology stocks have fallen too little to reflect the probability of a recession. The index is up 1.1% in 2020.

“When we see a strong move in one direction, where we think the fundamentals and the news can turn ugly, especially during an earnings cycle, we think that’s an opportunity where we could see a 5, 10% selloff again,” he said.

Investors are bracing for the possibility of more volatility this week, as earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola Co., Netflix Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. give another glimpse at how the coronavirus is reshaping the landscape for U.S. business.

New EraPerformance since S&P 500 record on Feb. 19Source: FactSet

%CloroxInvesco QQQ Trust Series ISPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustMarriottMarch 2March 16March 30April 13-60-50-40-30-20-1001020

The outsize market swings of late require vigilance from investors who sell shares short because they can face losses when prices rise. Short sellers incurred total mark-to-market losses of $108.8 billion over three days in late March when the S&P 500 surged 18%, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners.

But with the potential for additional declines ahead, many investors have decided that the ability to hedge their portfolios—or simply bet on a selloff—is wise.

“Things will go back to normal eventually and these positions will decrease but not until we start seeing less volatility in the market,” Mr. Dusaniwsky said of the rise in short positions against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust. “No one’s going to give up their insurance until they see the chances of catastrophe are in the rearview mirror.”

The portion of available shares sold short against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust has also risen, climbing to 27% in early April, the highest level since November 2016 and up from 14% at the beginning of 2020.

The increase in bets against the market coincides with a push in other countries to temporarily curb short selling. At times of heightened volatility, critics often argue that the practice exacerbates downward pressure on stock prices. But Jay Clayton, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has argued short selling is needed to facilitate ordinary market trading.

On the RiseThe percentage of available shares of the SPYETF, which tracks the S&P 500, that are soldshort has risen in recent months.SPY short interest as a percentage of floatSource: S3 Partners

%2016’17’18’19’2005101520253035

To be sure, coronavirus has upended entire industries in recent weeks, leaving investors scrambling to reassess the growth prospects of companies from Marriott to Clorox Co. to Amazon.com Inc. to Carnival.

With the pandemic devastating global travel, hotel, casino and cruise stocks have been among the hardest hit—and seen some of the biggest additions to the short positions against them.

Many hotels and casinos temporarily closed their doors when demand evaporated, furloughing employees and curbing spending plans, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has extended a no-sail order for cruises into July.

Short sellers have added a collective $797 million to their short positions against Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Marriott and Wynn over the past 30 days, according to data Friday from S3 Partners.

Betting Against Travel30-day change in value of shares shortedSource: S3 Partners

CarnivalRoyalCaribbeanCruisesMarriottInternationalWynnResorts$0 million$100$200$300

Alex Lee, a San Francisco resident who manages a family sandwich shop in Oakland, Calif., and his wife had previously dabbled in short selling but have recently devoted more attention there. They made bets against Marriott, along with other stocks.

“Because of Marriott’s price at the time, it seemed like it had more room to fall and because of its heavy presence in Europe and the United States, we just thought that that company itself would be more vulnerable to falling more,” he said.

Over two rounds of shorting Marriott stock in March and April, they made a profit of about $15,000, Mr. Lee said. Marriott recently said about 25% of its hotels are temporarily closed, and North American occupancy levels are around 10%. Its shares are down 44% this year.

White House Outlines Three Phases to Restart Economy

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White House Outlines Three Phases to Restart Economy

President Trump outlined new federal guidelines on Thursday to reopen the country, saying governors should take a “phased and deliberate approach” to restart their state economies. Photo: William Volcov/Zuma Press

Among the stocks that saw big drops in short positioning in March were stodgy consumer-staples shares, which got a bounce as Americans stocked their pantries to wait out the pandemic at home.

“We had a lifetime of trading in the month of March,” said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Funds. He said he had previously bet against shares of Kroger Co., Walmart Inc., Clorox and Campbell Soup Co. but covered those positions in late February and early March as it became clear those companies would perform well with consumers sheltering in place.

“Their business is healthier than it was before the crisis because the demand for their products has increased,” he said. “The amount of times you clean high-touch surfaces with a chemical disinfectant is going to go up for some period of time, maybe for the rest of our lives.”

 

Write to Karen Langley at karen.langley@wsj.com

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
 

We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

[bluto 4,995]

Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
 
We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

I’m back to very cash heavy but I’m gearing up for a large set it and forget play on xom and oke as well.

To make this stonk worthy, I’m tempted to get a personal loan at 5-6% and roll that into those high dividends as well. And ya, I’m aware they can cut the div at any point. I’m generally a total pussy with my cash/investments so I have some pent up ‘f it’... plus no dependents, zero debt, and a lifestyle/income that allow for saving 50-60% of my monthly take home.

[52-80 19,377]

saudis already bought equity in oil companies.  but in shell, total, etc, but not xom or cvx. 

also your divvies get taxed so the net would be lower , obv

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
 

We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

I hated trying to pick individual winners, do I opened a position in XOP

[Fudge Nuggets 19,449]

6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
 

We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

Ooops.

I'm planning to add to my XOM position today.

[LTtxfan 49,964]

6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
 

We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

 

Oil prices dropping into the $12 range in pre-market this morning.  Will ramp even more pressure for getting people back to work sooner...

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Ooops.

I'm planning to add to my XOM position today.

Unless it drops like crazy still looks bit higher than what I bought at Friday.  
 

More buying though.  Stock picking.  No index Funds until we go lower.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,449]

27 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Unless it drops like crazy still looks bit higher than what I bought at Friday.  
 

More buying though.  Stock picking.  No index Funds until we go lower.  

I bought a bunch sub $32 so my cost average will be fine.  It's at 40.60 pre-market which is lower than all but the first 10 minutes Friday.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[Blotto 24,010]

On 4/17/2020 at 8:55 PM, Wally Fairway said:

In for $2, out for $3.30. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I bought a bunch sub $32 so my cost average will be fine.  It's at 40.60 pre-market which is lower than all but the first 10 minutes Friday.

Bought more at 41.00.  Fuck it.  I’m in long term. Tech prices right now too juicy for my blood anyway.  Buy low / sell high right?!

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

How is XOP up today?
I must not understand the O&G market, because with the price crashing I assumed it would impact XOP.
I'm close to selling my XOP, because:
a) I'm up 
b) If I don't understand it, I shouldn't own it
c) WTI is under $12, Brent is at $26 - storage limitation? 
d) is this an expiring contracts issue (May futures for WTI expire tomorrow)?

 

[The Royal We 3,100]

Yea, wtf on XOP!?  As of this moment, oil is down 43% and XOP is up 3.26%.

Edited April 20, 2020 by The Royal We

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Yea, wtf on XOP!?  As of this moment, oil is down 43% and XOP is up 3.26%.

WTI is down over 40%, Brent is down 6%, nat gas is up 2% - I get that WTI is, likely, futures expiration related, but still - I sold my XOP for about a 14% gain, I'll look to back in again once this settle out a little bit more. I also made a few buck playing with OXY puts when the big OPEC induced drop hit, and the stock price ahs normalizedc which I just don't get with the crushing debt-load they took on to buy Anadarko.

 

[bluto 4,995]

Slack back to flirting with $30 but just cannnnnnot crack it

[ZB'Tejas 597]

30 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Yea, wtf on XOP!?  As of this moment, oil is down 43% and XOP is up 3.26%.

I bought DUG to hedge but O&G companies are doing ok regardless of this oil price. Might just need to get rid of it and buy O&G companies

[The Royal We 3,100]

They might be doing okay in the market, but I don't think they are doing okay by any "real" metrics - correct?  It seems like DUG's time to shine is still in front of us.

[52-80 19,377]

On 4/18/2020 at 3:31 AM, Blotto said:

Well, double buttfuckings should cost more, to be honest.

i think its working, my brothers

[hornbri 1,508]

Bought KO calls at 8:46 for .80 cents (April 24, $46), sold at 8:50 for $1.10. Nice 37.5% profit in less then 5 minutes. 

Options are fun. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by hornbri

[TonyTexas 10,713]

11 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Bought KO calls at 8:46 for .80 cents (April 24, $46), sold at 8:50 for $1.10. Nice 37.5% profit in less then 5 minutes. 

Options are fun. 

Will you also tell us when options aren’t fun?  

[hornbri 1,508]

6 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Will you also tell us when options aren’t fun?  

That wouldn't be very surly of me. 

[52-80 19,377]

58 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Will you also tell us when options aren’t fun?  

i held USO calls so ill take the heat for him. 

bounced out of my VXX calls and SPY puts a bit premature.  there was some legs left in them, but still happy

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

Will you also tell us when options aren’t fun?  

I'll throw my in my .02¢ - options are not fun when you have things going on that make it so you can't watch the market on day(s) when there are big enough market moves to make a few bucks.
Things likework, doctors appointments, people calling you from Iraq.....don't they know not to interrupt me when I'm #stonking

 

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

I'm thinking about making a stonky#stonk move and buying USO straddle(s) - for about $2.25 I can straddle the 10/16 $3.00 strike, or a strangle for $1.60 with a $2.50 put and a $3.50 call. 
It gives me 178 days of theta, and I'm thinking that I could get lucky and sell both side of the trade for win/win; this would obviously be a small play, because doing it big time would not be prudent and because I'm not a Surly 1% baller. 

[Blotto 24,010]

$2.25 seems like a pretty rich premium for an underlying currently at around $2.75. Hell by October, they could decide to dissolve the damn thing a la XIV, or dramatically alter their futures buy/roll strategy, which they already did a week or two ago . Definitely qualifies as stonky#stonk. 

 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,673]

27 minutes ago, Blotto said:

$2.25 seems like a pretty rich premium for an underlying currently at around $2.75. Hell by October, they could decide to dissolve the damn thing a la XIV, or dramatically alter their futures buy/roll strategy, which they already did a week or two ago . Definitely qualifies as stonky#stonk. 

I pulled the trigger as a strangle, fat fingered the call options as 11 instead of 10.
And I am making big money - this is how ballers roll, trying to decide how to outfit my G650

[RCRanger03 1,049]

DECN making an announcement on Thursday and they've said it's going to be longer that normal.  Hoping it's their approval for their diagnostic stuff

Trading for around .22 (I'm avg in a little lower).

[Anastasis 23,714]

21 minutes ago, RCRanger03 said:

DECN making an announcement on Thursday and they've said it's going to be longer that normal.  Hoping it's their approval for their diagnostic stuff

Trading for around .22 (I'm avg in a little lower).

Home based COVID testing would be something. 

[RCRanger03 1,049]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Home based COVID testing would be something. 

It's a redesign off their existing diabetes testing equipment, so it's serology (blood based) rather than PCR based which is the thing slowing down testing. Results are immediate... I think it's a gamechanger

I'm an essential personnel in a high COVID risk environment, I'm going to buy one of these AS SOON as they are avaible (hell maybe I'll be able to swing one as a stockholder benny with my few thousand shares)

[Anastasis 23,714]

Seems pretty #stonky to me.  In for a couple thousand shares cause why the fuck not. They have powerpoints and shit.

http://www.pharmatechsolutions.co/assets/inserts/20200327_GenViro!_PP.pdf

 

[RCRanger03 1,049]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems pretty #stonky to me.  In for a couple thousand shares cause why the fuck not. They have powerpoints and shit.

http://www.pharmatechsolutions.co/assets/inserts/20200327_GenViro!_PP.pdf

 

 

I'll take my middleman fee as $1k in shares at current trading price or the equivalent in bestbuy coupons. One of those will be more valuable come Friday lol

Edited April 21, 2020 by RCRanger03

[Blotto 24,010]

49 minutes ago, RCRanger03 said:

DECN making an announcement on Thursday and they've said it's going to be longer that normal.  Hoping it's their approval for their diagnostic stuff

Trading for around .22 (I'm avg in a little lower).

 

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems pretty #stonky to me.  In for a couple thousand shares cause why the fuck not. They have powerpoints and shit.

http://www.pharmatechsolutions.co/assets/inserts/20200327_GenViro!_PP.pdf

 

shit like this is the reason this thread was created, although this has all the earmarks of a pump and dump. Fuck it, I have some spare change in the couch from some straddles I exited earlier.