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Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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dad

dad 557

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On 8/28/2020 at 3:17 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Learn to read the charts or understand the markets that those individual stocks "play" in. Honestly, man, if you don't have a decent background, your best bet is to throw it in a Total Stock Market Fund with low fees and go from there.

Hey man I haven't checked back in a while but I just wanted to say that I took this to heart. I read a few trading books and learned technical analysis. Followed some of the brightest trading minds on twitter to reverse engineer their strategies and follow their watchlists. Now that I'm using TA to find proper low risk entry points to help me succeed my returns have really taken off. I've become more of a swing trader now if you will. I model my strategy in the vein of Mark Minervini and use the CANSLIM methodology. I leverage options in my Robinhood "play" account and of course that is doing well but I'm being smart about my larger account and don't touch derivates in it. I can't imagine not knowing technical analysis and jumping in blindly into things like I was doing before. Thanks for the suggestion. 

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Wally Fairway

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1 hour ago, bluto said:

Damn this GME stuff is beyond insane. Reddit broke the market
 

Isn't this similar to the crude futures squeeze that happened this summer, and saw crude go to negative $40/bbl or more, because people were trading futures (like options) and at the expiration they were required to deliver crude to specific places. And the storage at those places was full, so nobody could take delivery. It will correct but not without huge financial pain for some.

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We'd all have a lot more fun if we could convince Citron to leave our plays alone

We should be thanking Citron. Most short reports in this market are the dip buy opportunity that autist traders are then chasing afterwards. I’m sure it doesn’t generally work that way and Citron is just going short in order to then go long right after but right now it’s working.
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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30 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Isn't this similar to the crude futures squeeze that happened this summer, and saw crude go to negative $40/bbl or more, because people were trading futures (like options) and at the expiration they were required to deliver crude to specific places. And the storage at those places was full, so nobody could take delivery. It will correct but not without huge financial pain for some.

No, the crude market was behaving normally and then retail investors started engaging in trades they didn't understand. With this, institutional investors latched on to the thesis that GameStop was going bankrupt and started rampantly shorting it, further depressing the price. As the price dropped, the shorting accelerated to the point where hedge funds and other institutional investors were engaging in naked shorting. Essentially, they borrowed shares not to sell them, but to lend them to someone else to sell and collect lending fees as well as the profit for when they returned the shares to the original owner.

Obligatory disclaimer that I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advise. I lost my job in March due to Rona and had time to kill, so I was hunting for trades to make while killing time at home. I used to work at GameStop in undergrad, so I pulled up the stock on TDA just to see what it was up to. This was in April. I noticed that the short float was around 90% and the institutional ownership was at 102%. I thought there's no way that could be right, but other places were showing the same data. So I started researching what a "normal" short float is and what the consequences of a high float could be. That led me to the 2008 VW parabolic squeeze and the 2019 Tesla slow burn squeeze.

I bought some OTM calls for May that expired worthless and realized that this is a powder keg without a lit fuse. I then bought shares and a call for January 15 21 at a 10 strike, which was 100% OTM (I exercised the hell out of that call, BTW). Looking at the 20 year chart, I saw that GME experienced huge price movements during console launches. That was the spark that was needed to light the fuse, IMO. What I didn't foresee was Ryan Cohen, the Chewy wonderboy, stepping in and starting the show early. The price shot up to almost 10 in September and that is when I posted my original post in the Markets thread. As it turns out, other people saw the same thing I did and started posting positions from farther back than mine on WallStreetBets explaining essentially the same thesis. The holiday season combined with the new console release started causing mini squeezes of retail shorts, which then caused little gamma squeezes, and the theory started gaining traction.

It's possible that the main squeeze has not even started. In December, the short float was 140%(!!!) and institutional interest was 122%(!!!). Literally more shares shorted than actually exist. Literally the entire float, plus 22% more, sitting with institutional investors who are limited in how quickly and how much they can trade, effectively locking down large chunks of those shares. It is possible that every retail share bought since the institutional ownership went over 100%, possibly 18 months worth or more, is actually a "synthetic" share that was created by a short seller lending already borrowed shares to someone else who sold it to retail investors or Ryan Cohen, who is here to stay and bought a 13% stake in the company over 3 months. In the event of a full squeeze, there would be infinite demand of shares with finite supply. As the price went up, the situation started accelerating until the first 40% pop. Now there was so much attention that literally EVERY call for 01/22/2021 was ITM at expiry. Think about that for a second. Literally EVERY strike for that day was ITM. I am still dumbfounded by that. According to my ThinkOrSwim app, there were still 117,094 open interest calls at the end of the day. That means those calls are possibly being exercised on Monday or Tuesday. If all of them are exercised, that's 11,709,400 shares that HAVE to be bought by the writers of the calls to close out. The range of losses on that is anywhere from $5 per share up to $59.50 per share, as well as being 20% of the entire actual GME float, not the short float. Those are monumental losses that will possibly skyrocket as the remaining covering occurs on Monday. And data from Ortex indicates that the short interest went UP (!!!) 3 or 4% on Friday.

I think we are seeing something historic with this stock. I think some funds got out over their skis, engaged in unethical and possibly illegal short selling, and thought they could short GME to zero and bankruptcy, meaning that they could pocket everything and give nothing back. They didn't think GameStop would make it to the holiday season and the new console cycle. But think about how much they hurt GameStop in the process. Market share less than $1 billion, lowered credit ratings, and less borrowing power due to depressed share price by manipulation through that naked shorting. How many layoffs because of that? How many management level people with families got let go? How about the remaining retail shareholders who lost literally billions in value up until now? Now WSB and others are excited to give the funds a taste of their own medicine and turn them upside down and shake their pockets out.

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And that's exactly why I don't give a shit that all of those short sellers are losing their shirt. Sure it sucks that Andrew Left from Citron is getting personally attacked along with his family, that's too far. Look at this guy pleading for his life back. He is nervous as fuck.

But I hope all of those fuckers lose their ass because they make a killing off of purposefully driving companies to the ground with their short selling. It's not fair they can manipulate the market, wiping millions of gains with the click of a button so why not give them a taste of their own medicine. 

As a matter of fact I feel like dropping a grand in shares on Monday just for the hell of it. I don't give a shit if it goes to zero that's fine with me but if I get to participate in this short squeeze of the century even if its on the way down that's cool.

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1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:

The GME run has got to be done right?  Right??? 

 

 

*lines up another weekly call*

If you go to the reddit site these fools are acting like its still getting started and several are talking about dumping their entire retirement into it. Can this shit blow past $100, $200...

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Blotto

Blotto 24037

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14 hours ago, dad said:

And that's exactly why I don't give a shit that all of those short sellers are losing their shirt. Sure it sucks that Andrew Left from Citron is getting personally attacked along with his family, that's too far. Look at this guy pleading for his life back. He is nervous as fuck.

But I hope all of those fuckers lose their ass because they make a killing off of purposefully driving companies to the ground with their short selling. It's not fair they can manipulate the market, wiping millions of gains with the click of a button so why not give them a taste of their own medicine. 

As a matter of fact I feel like dropping a grand in shares on Monday just for the hell of it. I don't give a shit if it goes to zero that's fine with me but if I get to participate in this short squeeze of the century even if its on the way down that's cool.

Market manipulation is wrong whether the direction is long or short. I don't have an issue with people being short a stock, and also don't care when they get fucked in a short squeeze. There's plenty of manipulation on the long side as well. That's gonna hurt a lot of people as well when the bubble pops. 

 

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Market manipulation is wrong whether the direction is long or short. I don't have an issue with people being short a stock, and also don't care when they get fucked in a short squeeze. There's plenty of manipulation on the long side as well. That's gonna hurt a lot of people as well when the bubble pops. 
 

Agreed. I’d argue that institutions are constantly manipulating the market with their algorithms looking to dupe the average retail investor and that’s no different than short sellers or squeezers. It’s all manipulation so just get in the winning side and call it a day.
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Eastwood

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13 minutes ago, NateHitch said:

Insiders are starting to sell which isn't a good sign. A lot of us caught that Kodak ride but it also left a lot of people devastated. GME definitely feels different this time though
 

That was a week before the huge leap Friday and most of those people are on their way out of the company in June, as my understanding goes.

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12 minutes ago, NateHitch said:

Insiders are starting to sell which isn't a good sign. A lot of us caught that Kodak ride but it also left a lot of people devastated. GME definitely feels different this time though
 

That's just noise. There were 197 million shares traded on Friday alone. Those shares they sold are droplets on a hot skillet and they all wish they'd held on a little longer. They would be stupid not to cash in on these prices, I'd question if they didn't sell a dime because nobody in their right mind believes the prices will stay this elevated forever.

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I bought FRSX at $5.79 on 12/23 then sold at $4.69 on 12/28 for a 19% loss fortunately just on 300 shares. It was first suggested by YouTube investor @DeadNSyde but I simply bought too early instead of waiting for the first dump to form the wedge till Jan 12. I would set alerts at $9.70 or a little lower and buy it if it breaks out of that wedge on volume with a stop loss at $8.54.

IzI8ZvSW

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Lots of things on watch at any given time but some of the ones I own or have on watch right now are BLNK, GWPH, CRSR, FUBO, LAZR, SOLO, NIO

Spoiler

BLNK for a bounce off of the 21 MA on volume.

kruGKB5i

GWPH for a breakout above pivot at $144

pWUBkuCb

CRSR for continuation and possibly adding to. I jumped on it early for the reclaim of all moving averages.

A8jSLRju

FUBO I own shares hoping the short squeeze continues but not looking to add. 

T0l9H15c

LAZR for a breakout continuation

JmpXvSpH

SOLO I own several March calls already in profit but looking for them to be in the money at $10, $11.

v5tDwdQ2

NIO for a run back to all time highs for a decent 10% swing or more.

m8MNbVxY

 

 

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RCRanger03

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First public remarks about Bigtoken aka FPVD from the new CEO Lou Kerner released tonight. Lays out a case for why he's getting involved. I especially like the prospect of collecting rewards as cryptocurrency. Hopefully this marks the final transition of the merger/share exchange

https://medium.com/crypto-oracle/the-5-reasons-im-joining-bigtoken-as-ceo-6f216c1f1020

Quote

The 5 Reasons I’m Joining BIGtoken As CEO

Lou Kerner
Lou Kerner
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Jan 24 · 7 min read

Between 2000 and 2006 I was CEO of two operating companies, .tv, and Bolt. Since then, I’ve spent most of my time investing in start-ups, first as an angel, then, starting in 2012, as a VC. My first fund was focused on consumer internet. I pivoted to investing in tech companies founded by Israelis in 2015 (here’s why). On June 29, 2017 I saw the crypto light and have been in crypto 24/7 ever since. I believe that crypto is the biggest thing to happen in the history of humanity, because for the first time in history, we have a set of tools to solve for the community, instead of the man in the middle.

The last 3 1/2 years in crypto have been the most profoundly satisfying of my career. I’ve traveled the world (Shanghai, Paris, Taiwan, London, Tel Aviv, Singapore, Tokyo,…), met some of the most brilliant people on the planet, and felt I was helping put the pieces in place to make the world a better place for billions of people. I started the CryptoMondays Meetup Group , which has grown to over 50 cities.

Because, as William Faulkner wrote:

“I don’t know what I think of anything until I read what I’ve written about it”. The last 3 1/2 years have been an incredible odyssey”

I’ve written over 200 crypto posts, now as part of the great team at Quantum Economics. Each post has only deepened my crypto conviction. Most recently, after being an advisor to crypto fund-of-fund Blockchain Coinvestors for 1 1/2 years, we partnered to start the Blockchain Coinvestors Syndicate on AngelList (funding emerging crypto powerhouses like Uphold & DappRadar).

Last July, my friend Russell Anmuth reached out about privacy-focused BIGtoken. Per public filings, BIGtoken was being spun out of a publicly traded micro-cap company, SRAX, in to a public shell (FPVD). Russell introduced me to the CEO, Kris Nelson, as a candidate for their Board of Directors. I had a good call with Kris, and was intrigued by BIGtoken, which had 9 millions verified users who had downloaded the app. The users provided data by answering questions, taking surveys and connecting online accounts (banks accounts, credit cards, social media accounts..). BIGtoken then anonymizes the data, sells it to brand advertisers, and shares the revenue with its users.

But the timing of the spin-out slowed, and Kris left for an amazing privacy related opportunity at Facebook. Kris was replaced by Malcolm CaSelle, a long time SRAX Board Member and President of WAX, a marketplace for digital products built on a blockchain. After just six weeks as CEO, Malcolm tragically passed away.

When SRAX CEO Chris Migliano reached out and offered me the opportunity to be BIGtoken CEO, I was intrigued, for multiple reasons. A month later, for the five reason stated below, I enthusiastically accepted the role.

1. Privacy Is A Fundamental Human Right Whose Time Has Come. And BIGToken Is Helping Lead The Way

Data privacy isn’t new, but the attitude shift by individuals, corporations, and regulators/government is.

The E.U. passed the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018, a 100 page manifesto on consumer privacy rights.

The California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) was passed in 2018 stating that data privacy rights include:

With the writing on the wall, major tech companies are instituting dramatic changes that will cause seismic changes in how consumer data is aggregated. Tech company changes include:

  1. Major Browsers To Eliminate Cookies — Since 1994, online marketers have built their businesses by tracking online users and targeting them with ads, and much of this has been via third-party cookies. FireFox was the first major browser to eliminate cookies, in 2019. That same year Safari started letting users opt-out of cookies. Finally, Google announced Chrome will eliminate cookies by 2022.
  2. iOS Eliminating IDFA — At it’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June 2020, Apple released privacy updates to iOS that largely eliminated the Apple Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA), which is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user’s device. Advertisers use the IDFA to track and identifying a user so they can deliver customized advertising.

As a result of these changes, the opt-in first-party data that BIGtoken aggregates at scale is top of mind for brand advertisers:

A new era of data privacy is, finally, upon us.

2. BIGtoken Generated $2.2 Million In It’s First Full Year Of Operation in 2020, With 100% Retention

As an investor, I put little weight on what I think of a product. I never used Facebook much, but when I analyzed the user engagement in 2009 I thought it was the most under-priced asset I had ever seen and wrote the first Wall Street style research report on the company.

I was impressed that BIGtoken counted 8 of the 10 largest customers as clients. That requires great salesmanship for an early stage digital media company. But I was more impressed by the 100% retention rate, as that requires a great product.

And not surprisingly for companies with great products, there’s a solid team at BIGtoken that’s accomplished an impressive amount with limited resources.

3. From Crypto Adjacent To Crypto Centric

My best clickbait post ever was “Why I’m Leaving Crypto”. Because anyone who knew me knew how passionate I had been about crypto for almost three years. I wasn’t leaving crypto then, and I’m not leaving crypto now. Totay, BIGtoken users earn points for sharing their data, and the points can be redeemed for cash (via PayPal) or for other rewards. I see that activity as crypto adjacent today. And we have a roadmap to crypto centric.

Our roadmap includes some easy wins, like allowing our users the to redeem points for Bitcoin, and enabling employees and vendors to opt in to get paid in Bitcoin. If we’re providing bitcoin as a reward, it’s a logical next step to provide a digital wallet for users who believe “not your keys not your coins.”

I’m a massive believer in stablecoins, and believe that our users will love the ability to redeem points for stablecoins that provide interest.

We have a core competency in paying users for their anonymized data, and we plan to leverage our back end to provide services to other crypto companies that pay users for sharing their data in other verticals (e.g. health).

I’ll finish with the holy grail of our crypto roadmap, which is the potential to leverage our own cryptocurrency that can provide significant value to our users, at little to no cost to BIGtoken.

4. The Toolset To Run, And The Ability To Optimize, Being A Public Company

It’s unusual for a company like BIGtoken to be public. In fact, the trend is to stay private longer and longer, and trade at a $70 billion valuation on your first day as a public company. But BIGtoken was born out of a micro-cap company, and for specific reasons, we’re being spun out into a public shell.

As I’ve been an equity analyst on Wall Street for seven years, I’m well aware that being public creates additional costs, is time intensive, and requires transparency that’s helpful to your competitors.

But there’s also upside to being a public company, most notably, liquidity. Everyone LOVES liquidity. Investors love liquidity, and so do acquisition candidates. It’s much harder to do acquisitions with paper when you’re a private company with illiquid shares. As BIGtoken will have liquid paper, and an appetite for growth, we plan to be acquisitive.

Finally, as a public company, you optimize value for shareholders by combining a great company with the ability to help Wall Street appreciate why you’re great. Having been an equity analyst for seven years, I’ve honed the craft of telling compelling stories in Wall Street lingo.

5. Since I Last Ran A Company, I’ve Seen A Lot &Learned A Lot, And I’m Excited To Lead A Purpose Driven Organization

Since I ran my last company in 2006, I’ve invested in more than 70 companies, sat on many Boards, and raised three kids (now 17, 19 and 22). I’ve seen what worked, and I’ve seen what failed. It’s much less about me now. I still feel like I have the same drive and intensity, but I’m more in to the long game. I’m more confrontational, but I take everything less personally.

My favorite business book is “The Hard Thing About Hard Things” by Ben Horowitz. It’s an ode to entrepreneurs. It’s 308 pages about how hard it is to build a company. It’s 308 pages of how hard it is for every entrepreneur. So I know what I’m getting myself into, and I’m excited for the challenge. So bring it on. It’s time to get back in the arena:

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. — Teddy Roosevelt, Citizenship in a Republic Speech, April 23, 1910

 

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RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

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It's going to be an interesting week in my OTC portfolio:

TSNP - Market reaction post CC will test the sell before the news manta. There was a lot to like and short term commitments to major catalysts in Feb. Social Media didn't let up all weekend, but bears out in force this morning. First T-Trade of the day just punched up to $0.39 but we know from ALPP these can be a false flag. If it can't keep momentum going up, then we're looking to hold the $.30s today. If it can't hold that I'm adding between $0.20 - $0.25 I don't think it will break lower than that this time with all the inflection points in the near future

ALPP - Cup and Handle Chart formation (I'm looking much more closely at the traditional technical stuff with ALPP now that it's behaving more like a big board stock). I'm looking at a morning dip to test ~$3.75 or as low as $3.50. I think those can hold, cool off the RSI and hoping to test new highs this week  If new comes out, and ALPP loves PM news right before the bell, maybe no dip at all. Shareholder meeting on 2/5 to vote on authorizing the ability to R/S or increase A/S remember to vote for the latter.

XMET - big court date next Monday 2/1. There was a lot of preloading last week. Already saw a decent amount of Friday profit taking off the high of .0039. Would like to see it hold up in the .003s but personally am expecting to see it test support in the .0024 - .0025 range as more people take profit. I'm not buying or selling this week (unless it touches my first GTC at .01), but people that are in higher will have some decisions to make. Lots of eyes on this one, and the way it move so quickly up and down make me feel like it could be close to float locked (which would be all but impossible if the O/S is really 8.2B). If anything makes me a millionaire in a day it will be this one. Also if anything could lose me my entire investment in a day it would be this one.

FPVD - Article from Lou Kerner was good, love the Crypto direction (especially since the Biden admin seems to be hiring blockchain heavies across the board). Still need to break that .008 - .0085 range that has twice rejected to see a new horizon. The slow movement up this time make that seem more possible. An official PR from Bigtoken or SRAX could definitely send it. I have stage sells of 100K on pennies up to .05 and then holding 500k long

SNVP - Still have no clue what is going on here. Considering pulling my investment out this week if it can't hold the line. If I switch it out, I'll let yall know

MEDH/OWUV/BRRN all turned upward on Friday, we'll see how they hold up, but I'm more focused on the above holdings

Edited by RCRanger03
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

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2 minutes ago, nycHorn said:

Schwab sucks right now. Telling me FPVD symbol is invalid even though I’m holding shares now.

Yeah, they are fucking up right now - I tried to place a sell on ALPP and get an invalid symbol error. WTF
Not that upset as my order has a $5.00 price, but still "Hey Chuck -  get your shit together"

Just for shits I wanted to see if I could place an order on SPY (sell at $400 - LOL), and that was accepted just fine. So it looks like it might be OTC related.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

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2 minutes ago, bluto said:

Is it at all possible to surmise when these short squeeze rockets fizzle? If I buy summer puts is it safe to assume things will have resolved

I was thinking about that, but Chuck has crashed their GME options screen - totally fucked it up and I guess I'll just have to do some work.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5445

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7 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

GME broke everything. Also AMYZF 🌚

Holy shit I need to get Harrison a thank you gift!

 

I have sold some more ALPP cause profit but if it dips I am jumping back on.

 

Not selling  any more tsnp until we get to the moon.

Edited by Hefeweizen
Tom Herman made me do it, with hookers and blow
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Blotto

Blotto 24037

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11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

@Blotto $LGND printing coin right now.  What's behind the move over the last week. 

Not sure to be honest. My guess is that all heavily shorted stocks are getting a bump due to the fuckery around GME, and LGND is always a top 5 most shorted stock. Also they have earnings coming up next week, and with the hospitals chock full of Covid patients they may release some encouraging figures related to Remdesivir demand. I am expecting a correction here soon, but considering the stock has doubled since it hit $80 at the end of November and I tripled my position, i cant be too torn up about it. 

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