Super Tuesday - 1,357 Delegates at Stake - Page 17 - Cloak Room - Surly Horns Jump to content

Super Tuesday - 1,357 Delegates at Stake


washparkhorn

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re: Joe with 'early onset alzheimers'...well, i mean...didn't the Republican hero (at lease before Trump) have that issue? didn't seem to hurt him at the time. 

also, whoever said 'Google is a bigger threat to Trump' than Biden or Bernie was right!

if you Google 'idiot Trump' you get "About 24,500,000 results". daaaamn Google, that's harsh!

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  On 3/4/2020 at 5:47 PM, henrygandorf said:

so here was my experience voting in person last night. 

for at least the last couple cycles, i've voted by mail, so i haven't had to worry about polling places.  after all the chatter and seeing the lines around the country, i was curious and a little nervous to go in person, but the wife wanted me to wait for her.  we went down around 7:15pm (the place closed at 8pm).  it was the auditorium in a neighborhood school in weho.

the line was fucking long.  probably a few hundred people.  which didn't much bother me.  the part that bothered me was how slow it was moving.  any organized line that long should/would be moving faster assuming there were more than 2-3 voting booths inside (which there were).  in any case, we expected it to take 45 min to an hour.

about 8:45, the volunteers were going around letting everyone know about the "poll pass" you could fill out on your phone, so that you could get a qr code generated, which would speed things up once you got inside.  our part of the line was pleased about this (there were also about 100 people behind us, and they never really "cut" the line).  we all did our poll pass, which takes about 5 minutes if you have a general sense of who you're voting for (i think there were 19 total including 3 yes/no props and 3-4 unopposed races).

finally, around 9:20pm, we get to the front of the line, which doesn't take you to a booth, but instead to a small table with 3 volunteers.  1 of which was either on a break, or just decided to hang out and yap, so there were essentially 2 functioning "check-in" stations, which seemed a little counter-intuitive, considering there were 20 voting booths. 

i walk up to a volunteer with my id in my hand.  she didn't ask for it, just my name.  last, then first, then rotated her ipad and said "is this you?"  it was my full name, address, and voting preference.  i said yes, then she printed out my ballot, told me how the booths worked, when to show my poll pass qr code, then what to do with the ballot.

i get to the booth, tried to scan my qr code, and the machine said "the poll pass you're scanning doesn't match your voter registration".  ok.  i did it manually and went through the 19 questions again.  there were a couple of volunteers helping answer questions, and dealing with 5-6 booths that were having issues (paper jams mostly). 

i saw several people walking around with their paper ballots not sure where to put them.  and at no point did anyone verify my identity.  this was a democratic primary in what could only be called a democratic stranglehold of a neighborhood.  but when the shit gets real in november, if other polling places are run this way, this would be a fucking disaster.  i can't imagine what it would be like in michigan, pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, etc.

and i didn't even mention the 15-20 people we personally saw bail on the line in 2 hours.  this was no-doubt caused by the confusion and procedure inside, which obviously was causing the super-long wait time.  i know there were long lines in other places.  were they all kinda like this, or was this some random exception?  i would say we need more volunteers (we do) but this table was only set up to have 3 check-ins, so it's not like they would've been quicker with 2-3x the staff.

ahh, democracy. 

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I pulled up 15 minutes before the polls closed and there was no line. They did check my ID and said I'd have to get a new one pretty soon because it doesn't have the star on it. This was a rural polling location in Texas.

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Bernie looks to have also underperformed in CA.  Has 33.6% to Biden's 24.9%. I thought Bernie was supposed to north of 40 or 50% but there are still votes to be counted. Just for curiosity, I added 70% of Bloomberg's, Pete's and Amy's CA votes to Biden and gave Bernie the remaining 30%:  Bernie 1.22m, Biden 1.24m for CA based on the current totals on Washpo. 

Obviously if Warren dropped out and a decent pct went to Bernie, he would jump ahead in my count. But I don't think it's a given she would endorse him.

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  On 3/4/2020 at 7:37 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Bernie looks to have also underperformed in CA.  Has 33.6% to Biden's 24.9%. I thought Bernie was supposed to north of 40 or 50% but there are still votes to be counted. Just for curiosity, I added 70% of Bloomberg's, Pete's and Amy's CA votes to Biden and gave Bernie the remaining 30%:  Bernie 1.22m, Biden 1.24m for CA based on the current totals on Washpo. 

Obviously if Warren dropped out and a decent pct went to Bernie, he would jump ahead in my count. But I don't think it's a given she would endorse him.

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This is why this thing is fucking over, and anybody who is paying attention knows it.  When you add Bloomberg's totals to Biden, Biden has an outright majority in most states.

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  On 3/4/2020 at 8:36 PM, mdmost said:

I'm sure there's still a path for Bernie if he can win Florida, NY and Illinois but I'm not sure he can pull all 3 of those. Especially as Biden picks up momentum and more line up behind him in support. 

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Florida is gonna be a hard get after the Castro shit.

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  On 3/4/2020 at 8:36 PM, mdmost said:
I'm sure there's still a path for Bernie if he can win Florida, NY and Illinois but I'm not sure he can pull all 3 of those. Especially as Biden picks up momentum and more line up behind him in support. 

He’s not going to get any one of those. He may not even be viable in Florida. The polls there were terrible for him before Super Tuesday.


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  On 3/4/2020 at 8:36 PM, mdmost said:

I'm sure there's still a path for Bernie if he can win Florida, NY and Illinois but I'm not sure he can pull all 3 of those. Especially as Biden picks up momentum and more line up behind him in support. 

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The only one I see Bernie being competitive in is New York. I bet he cleans up in AOC’s district.

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  On 3/4/2020 at 8:28 PM, Ghost of LL said:

This is why this thing is fucking over, and anybody who is paying attention knows it.  When you add Bloomberg's totals to Biden, Biden has an outright majority in most states.

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Many people were counting Biden out a week ago. Biden could have a disastrous debate while Bernie shines. Then the media will talk about Bernie's great comeback.

Next Tuesday we have Michigan, Missouri and Washington plus a few others. I'm interested in seeing how Biden performs in MI especially given that it went red in 2016. Whether MI wants to go with Bernie or Biden is important.  Same with Arizona, Florida  and Ohio a week after that. (3 swing states in 1 day)

Regardless of the above, I agree this is Biden's to lose now. The most telling reason for that is how he won in states last night, in which he didn't even attempt to win. Not because he thought he had it in the bag but rather that he didn't have the funds to compete. He was hoping for 15% to get delegates and came away with victories. 

 

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  On 3/4/2020 at 9:27 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Many people were counting Biden out a week ago. Biden could have a disastrous debate while Bernie shines. Then the media will talk about Bernie's great comeback.

Next Tuesday we have Michigan, Missouri and Washington plus a few others. I'm interested in seeing how Biden performs in MI especially given that it went red in 2016. Whether MI wants to go with Bernie or Biden is important.  Same with Arizona, Florida  and Ohio a week after that. (3 swing states in 1 day)

Regardless of the above, I agree this is Biden's to lose now. The most telling reason for that is how he won in states last night, in which he didn't even attempt to win. Not because he thought he had it in the bag but rather that he didn't have the funds to compete. He was hoping for 15% to get delegates and came away with victories. 

 

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Well, there's a Detroit News poll out that says that Bernie is down 20 points among voters who have already cast early ballots in Michigan.  And that was before the party coalesced around Biden over the past 72 hours.

I mean--I'm with you.  Michigan is important.  Bernie won it four years ago.  And I think he's going to demonstrate next week just how much of his vote in 2016 was an anti-Hillary vote.

As to Arizona and Florida, I don't know what would lead you to think that states with high retiree populations would be favorable for Sanders.  The Hispanic community will help him in Arizona, no doubt.  But the Cubans in Florida are going to kill him--those Castro comments were disastrous.  

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  On 3/4/2020 at 10:09 PM, Ghost of LL said:

Well, there's a Detroit News poll out that says that Bernie is down 20 points among voters who have already cast early ballots in Michigan.  And that was before the party coalesced around Biden over the past 72 hours.

I mean--I'm with you.  Michigan is important.  Bernie won it four years ago.  And I think he's going to demonstrate next week just how much of his vote in 2016 was an anti-Hillary vote.

As to Arizona and Florida, I don't know what would lead you to think that states with high retiree populations would be favorable for Sanders.  The Hispanic community will help him in Arizona, no doubt.  But the Cubans in Florida are going to kill him--those Castro comments were disastrous.  

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Unfortunately most of those Cubans vote Republican anyway so it won't hurt Sanders.  That being said, Sanders will most likely lose FL to Biden.  I am guessing MI and PA will go Biden also and many of the states that are left will go Biden meaning Bernie, whether right or wrong, won't be getting the nomination.  

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