Super Twosday Gametime Thread

[Bruh Man 3160]

So... the last exit poll I saw showed 18-24 year olds in Washington made up 5% of the electorate. 25-29 year olds also made up 5% of the electorate. This is a state where all you need to do to vote is register online, check your physical mail box, and mail back the completed ballot.

[mdmost 43958]

Edited March 11, 2020 by mdmost

[BradInATX 9208]

10 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

The black vote has gone against Bernie for Bernie-specific reasons. He ran against Hillary, who many of them liked. He is not a lifelong Democrat, a party with whom many of them deeply identify. He is an enemy of the Democratic Party establishment, a group of people where black Americans have an outsized influence relative to overall national politics.

The black vote also went against Bernie in this cycle for reasons they would have gone against ANY other candidate: Joe Biden was Obama's VP.

 

"Black people are incapable of voting on issues and policy. They only vote on externalities and for superficial reasons."

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

Oh, I'm going for the Biden dog, but I'm not wasting my spicy mustard on it.

The Biden dog comes with a scoop of vanilla ice cream.  The excrementitious dog comes with a big gulp of liberal tears w/ free refills.

[Hank Kingsley 21759]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Older whites are more reliable voters, and they are Republicans.
Young people are less reliable voters, and they are Democrats.

Can Biden count on gaining so much among reliable Republican voters that he can afford to let his party's own base fall? I guess that's the gamble.

Enough with the concern trolling.

Biden and Democrats will welcome in young progressives to the coalition. That's not the issue. They will not be ignored.

Bernie will try to rally them to vote for Biden. There will be plenty of surrogates out there focusing on getting young people to the polls. The question is will they actually go vote. 

 

 

 

[bad_teammate 13499]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Biden and Democrats will welcome in young progressives to the coalition. That's not the issue. They will not be ignored.

On what do you base this?

[Hank Kingsley 21759]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

On what do you base this?

Common sense. Do you really think they'll be ignored? 

[bad_teammate 13499]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Common sense. Do you really think they'll be ignored? 

Considering he just said he'd veto M4A if it passed... yes, absolutely.

Considering that he reacts furiously whenever someone to his left challenges him... yes, absolutely.

Considering his decades-long track record of fighting for center/conservative causes arrogantly... yes, absolutely.

Considering he has no track record of working with/for progressive causes... yes, absolutely.

[RDCanecutter 26873]

12 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Had never seen that.  Still would.  Saucy Minx is more like it.

I don't think you should objectify those young dancers like that.

[RDCanecutter 26873]

14 hours ago, Pasken said:

he's going to get destroyed next week in Florida. Really awful timing.

Nonsense. There are many Cubans in Florida. Bernie can bond with them, talking about Cuba, and having some food.

[Hank Kingsley 21759]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Considering he just said he'd veto M4A if it passed... yes, absolutely.

He didn't say that, but continue to run with the worst interpretation of his muddled response to a fantasy land question if it makes you feel better. 

This election is not about Joe Biden. His eventual nomination is not about Joe Biden and his particular set of polices. There will be a huge focus on bringing everyone together to defeat Donald Trump. A majority will continue to push better policy and hold his administration accountable (if he wins). 

Biden as President is only a doomsday scenario if the left voluntarily bails or gives up on the Democratic Party. 

 

 

[bad_teammate 13499]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This election is not about Joe Biden.

Quote

Biden as President is only a doomsday scenario if the left voluntarily bails or gives up on the Democratic Party. 

Seems like the nominee shouldn't say he's going to veto what they want even if they do the work to get it through Congress then, eh?

Yelling at me on here isn't going to do anything about this.

(also, lol at not even trying to defend the other things)

Edited March 11, 2020 by bad_teammate

[Biff Tannen 46157]

b_t has gone bye bye, Egon.

[henrygandorf 29225]

is someone on here actually arguing that young people are going to vote for trump?  they may like bernie more than biden, but they fucking hate trump. 

activating them as previously non-voters would be the clincher, but biden has already shown to be stronger with olds and black people than hillary, who narrowly lost the 3 states. 

old and young are two groups, but that doesn’t mean they’re equally sized. 

[Storm the Field 5366]

7 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

 

Anecdotally speaking, my Dad is one of these. Conservative but not MAGA. GOP type but also a lifetime union guy. Regretfully voted for Trump despite thinking he's a bumbling idiot solely due to extreme dislike of Hillary. He seems pretty inclined to pull the lever for BIden this time. Also liked Klobuchar. Would absolutely have jumped back on the Trump train if nominee was Warren or Bernie. Now, flipping my Dad isn't enough to flip Texas, but there's a not-insignificant number of "My Dad's" out there, especially in midwest swing states, and they vote reliably.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Biden’s rhetoric is probably going to piss a lot of leftists off going forward because he’ll be pandering to the middle Pete Buttigieg style.  And sadly, this might be what it takes for him to win because trying to galvanize a youth voter movement is a much heavier lift, as Bernie’s campaign is proving. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[6th Street 6687]

Until we have mobile app-based voting, actively targeting the youth vote is a non-value add activity. 

[henrygandorf 29225]

15 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Considering he just said he'd veto M4A if it passed... yes, absolutely.

not only did biden clearly say he would definitely veto m4a, but he also said we had to re-elect donald trump. i saw it on the internets. 

he’s also been threatening anyone who looks at him sideways. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871]

4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Anecdotally speaking, my Dad is one of these. Conservative but not MAGA. GOP type but also a lifetime union guy. Regretfully voted for Trump despite thinking he's a bumbling idiot solely due to extreme dislike of Hillary. He seems pretty inclined to pull the lever for BIden this time. Also liked Klobuchar. Would absolutely have jumped back on the Trump train if nominee was Warren or Bernie. Now, flipping my Dad isn't enough to flip Texas, but there's a not-insignificant number of "My Dad's" out there, especially in midwest swing states, and they vote reliably.

sounds like you found your mom's diary.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

is someone on here actually arguing that young people are going to vote for trump?  they may like bernie more than biden, but they fucking hate trump. 

 

no. i've just concluded that races now are only about turnout, so i get nervous of any indicator of reduced turnout in a population that would toss trump out.

[Hank Kingsley 21759]

We'll need Bernie to campaign hard for Biden. We'll need Klobuchar, Booker, Harris, and Yang to do their part and rally everyone to vote.

Pete and Beto are currently unemployed. Buttigieg should be deployed all over the country to help down ballot tickets if he's up for it. Beto can help try to (even if it's unsuccessful) help turn Texas blue. 

Let's get Trump out of office and take the Senate. And then really push to get better policies enacted ASAP. 

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26873]

1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

 This is a state where all you need to do to vote is register online, check your physical mail box, and mail back the completed ballot.

I understood the part about registering online, but then you started speaking Ancient Egyptian.

[Bruh Man 3160]

8 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I understood the part about registering online, but then you started speaking Ancient Egyptian.

It's like texting but with paper. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

It's like texting but with paper. 

Maybe I’m punch drunk because I’ve been up since 5:00 AM - which still feels like 4:00 AM because time change - but this fucking exchange cracked me up.

Thanks for the giggle, fellas.

[washparkhorn 9973]

5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden’s rhetoric is probably going to piss a lot of leftists off going forward because he’ll be pandering to the middle Pete Buttigieg style.  And sadly, this might be what it takes for him to win because trying to galvanize a youth voter movement is a much heavier lift, as Bernie’s campaign is proving. 

Youth vote is up. 

White men switched from Bernie in 2016 to Biden in 2020. 

You draw your own conclusions - based on your experience as an Elizabeth Warren supporter. 

I look at it charitably - Hillary was a godawful candidate in 2016. But you may your own conclusions based on how poorly Warren did this cycle. 

The HMM model:

In order to return to the first state, the coalition of the ascendancy (young/Latino) must be restored to the third state in order to replicate the first state.

Edited March 11, 2020 by washparkhorn

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Biden wins Washington 

[RDCanecutter 26873]

On 3/11/2020 at 11:01 AM, Bruh Man said:

It's like texting but with paper. 

I have noticed that nobody knows how to mail shit. I mail shit, and I will go to the Post Office at the busiest time just for entertainment at the complete lack of knowledge about mailing shit.

It's not just young people-- oh, young people don't know shit about mailing shit, but they know they don't know. I showed a 21-year-old how to write the address on a letter, and he was genuinely happy. Not like those cranky old fuckers, they think they know all about mailing shit, and they'll walk into the US Post Office with a package for Fedex. "Oh? You don't take Fedex here? Why not? I am very important and you are just a postal clerk."

Then every other damn old person has a giant box held together with one strip of Scotch tape, like some Dada art project set to explode randomly all over the floor of a shipping center. Street doesn't exist. Zip code doesn't exist. Damn town probably doesn't exist. Some of these old people probably used to mail shit every day. It's like the collective memory of how to mail shit was stored on a cassette tape, and somebody chucked it in a box of magnets.

tldr: Nobody knows how to mail shit.

[cam4mav 772]

Seattle voter here.  Filled my ballot out and put it back in the envelope, sealed it, about 2 weeks ago. 

I nearly didn't mail it in because it sat on my desk and it didn't cross my mind that I had to walk back out to the mailbox, cause I never check mail. Ended up mailing it the Friday before the election. I haven't mailed anything out in years. 

I'm 30. I have multiple friends that didn't know how to vote, hadn't registered, 2 that don't have a printer and I literally went to a ups store with them to print the ballot (filled out online) and then drove them to the ballot drop box. 

The number of facebook posts / tweets / instagrams that are political compared to number of people who actually voted is just pathetic. 

[Biff Tannen 46157]

6 hours ago, cam4mav said:

Seattle voter here.  Filled my ballot out and put it back in the envelope, sealed it, about 2 weeks ago. 

I nearly didn't mail it in because it sat on my desk and it didn't cross my mind that I had to walk back out to the mailbox, cause I never check mail. Ended up mailing it the Friday before the election. I haven't mailed anything out in years. 

I'm 30. I have multiple friends that didn't know how to vote, hadn't registered, 2 that don't have a printer and I literally went to a ups store with them to print the ballot (filled out online) and then drove them to the ballot drop box. 

The number of facebook posts / tweets / instagrams that are political compared to number of people who actually voted is just pathetic. 

Well, that’ll do it. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

6 hours ago, cam4mav said:

The number of facebook posts / tweets / instagrams that are political compared to number of people who actually voted is just pathetic. 

I know that is what you have heard, but Democratic turnout in 2020 is WAY UP compared to 2016. 

We can take the Presidency, keep the House, and take the Senate. 

Don't repeat this Trump talking point. It has been overused this cycle (based on a centrist/no to M4A media strategy). It is not good for Democrats to repeat this. It depresses the vote in November. 

With kindness intended. The media is reckless sometimes and doesn't look at the actual numbers.

[cam4mav 772]

1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

I know that is what you have heard, but Democratic turnout in 2020 is WAY UP compared to 2016. 

I'm referring to my circle on social media, which is fairly small but ages probably 26-34 ish.

You are correct that there is a huge uptick in overall turnout, and it is great news for November. My circle is the younger voters and they bitch and moan but didn't come out to vote in numbers, relative to online opinions, according to the exit poll data. 

One question I'm curious about though, with the mailing system we had, if exit polls were only done on in person voting sites or if they did calling polling too? That would have a massive impact on the exit polls.

[SaucyJack 3519]

22 hours ago, cam4mav said:

I'm referring to my circle on social media, which is fairly small but ages probably 26-34 ish.

You are correct that there is a huge uptick in overall turnout, and it is great news for November. My circle is the younger voters and they bitch and moan but didn't come out to vote in numbers, relative to online opinions, according to the exit poll data. 

One question I'm curious about though, with the mailing system we had, if exit polls were only done on in person voting sites or if they did calling polling too? That would have a massive impact on the exit polls.

There is absolutely nothing unique (new) about this voting behavior.