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Thread of local businesses that don't survive the coronavirus

CooterBrown

By CooterBrown
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Zombie
Zombie

I'm a commercial landlord with about 10 small businesses in my properties. [/CSB] I've let them know we'll work something out if their cash flow dries up for the next few months. I don't see how anyon

GHOSTUSER
GHOSTUSER

my restaurant tenants were ecstatic and one almost burst into tears when I told them I was giving them abated rent for April and May in exchange for extending their term by 2 months. One of the things

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I just saw the Pluckers CEO on TV and he was crying and saying that they have to shut down all their stores permanently because they were one lunch order of wings short for their quota today and they

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38,129

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6 minutes ago, Quagmire said:

At what point does destroying the economy out way closing everything to stop the spread ?

Let’s do the math kids...

Suppose we let Covid just burn through the population. We’ve already seen the infection rate is pretty high. It’s not measles high, but is double the Flu. The Flu infects around 9-45 million people each year in US. Let’s use 25 million. Now, if you double that. That’s 50 million cases. With a seasonal flu CFR rate a 0.1%, that would mean 25,000 deaths, but since Covid CFR ranges from 1% to 5%, tthe average is around 2%. So that would mean around 500,000 deaths if we just let it burn through. Ballpark, could be higher, could be lower. 


 

 

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Quagmire

Quagmire 2,147

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I’m more afraid of what closing down everything then the virus. People start losing their jobs and get desperate and all hell is gonna break loose. Especially considering the amount of guns in this country .

Plenty of nut bags with guns shooting up shit when everything is going good

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Quagmire

Quagmire 2,147

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I’m more afraid of what closing down everything then the virus. People start losing their jobs and get desperate and all hell is gonna break loose. Especially considering the amount of guns in this country .

Plenty of nut bags with guns shooting up shit when everything is going good

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

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So- I own 2 businesses that employ 10 people. Just started the second one on February 18 (title shop). We are absolutely killIing it with open orders and we were over capitalized to my way of thinking (I.e. as long as we don’t have any months with zero revenue we will be ok). I have a sinking suspicion the lending market is going to get shut down- destroying both my businesses. 

Theres a threading of the needle where mortgage markets stay open and we squeak by on just enough refinances that I will be ok in both mortgage and title- but I’ve got about a 30 day runway if my revenue goes to zero. Fun times ahead man. At least I have a chance to walk through this if we don’t go full quarantine. I know so many others that are dead man walking right now. 

Also- just bought a new house (my families dream house) and have made 2 entire mortgage payments on it/ so yeah/ if there isn’t any mortgage relief and this system goes bad I guess we get to turn those keys back to the lender. 

I consider myself in relatively good shape relative to most people out there and I give myself no more than a 50/50 chance of walking through this. 

Whenever I hear people say stuff like “you can’t be too careful with this thing” I wonder if they’ve given any thought to the decimation of the economy headed our way with all of this “out of an abundance of caution we are doing...” proclamations. 

I’m not saying shuttering the world isn’t the right call, I’m just saying I think it’s worth having a conversation as a society as to whether or not the prevention is worth the cure. 

Maybe the government will get it right on how to deal with the economic Armageddon headed to this country/the world but I’m not so sure it’s worth putting any faith in the powers that be to get this right. 

In the meantime I’m hoping me and mine come through this healthy and figuring that at 41, even if I get wiped out but retain my family and health that some day we can get back to where we were today. 

Thoughts and prayers to everyone. It’s going to be rough out there. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Texas_Rocks

Texas_Rocks 346

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On the day SXSW was canceled/postponed, some poster requested that members throw some business toward a surf & turf restaurant owner buddy that relied on the event to keep afloat. He had expanded to three locations. Any news on that cat’s business? Poor guy REALLY has to be feeling it right now.

Means little in times like this, but I sincerely feel terrible for you guys/girls that have been trying to build something that also creates career opportunities for fellow Americans too. That is not easily done in the best of circumstances.

While not big on government intervention in general, I really hope they produce some emergency measures that shield small business from collapsing due to a myriad of inevitable economic blows associated with COVID-19.

I’ve seen a lot of shit in my life time, but I’ve never seen anything quite like this. Watching it all unfold in a mass flood of digital media is fascinating and overwhelming at the same time.

Anyway, I truly hope the best for you small business operators. Same goes for everyone that relies on normalcy in life to have a life.

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18,216

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3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Suppose we let Covid just burn through the population. We’ve already seen the infection rate is pretty high. It’s not measles high, but is double the Flu. The Flu infects around 9-45 million people each year in US. Let’s use 25 million.

Flu’s R0 is only half of COVID-19’s, but that is misleading.  R0 measure may rate of spread in an unvaccinated population.  The existence of a flu vaccine means that the effective reproductive number for flu would be lower.  (Whereas the effective reproduction number for a novel virus like COVID-19 should be the same as its R0).

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victory88

victory88 5,663

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17 hours ago, solamente73 said:

V88, our practice will turn 10 in December - we hope.  We were about to ink the deal on a new multi-million $ office.  2020 was going to be ‘our year.’  Now it’s pure survival mode.

Against all advice from CPAs and everyone else, I’ve always hoarded cash in the business for a ‘rainy day,’ which I always thought would be incapacitation of our talent.  Instead, it’s coronavirus.  For the last month we’re been cutting costs like crazy.  Now, if we let go all staff and cut all non-loan/rent/utility expenses, our business can probably, technically, survive a year, but we are without a doubt the 1% exception.  Our family can live off savings for a while, but most of our staff are not that fortunate.

Praying for you and all business owners and staff who not only have to face Coronavirus but also financial ruin.

 

I know your feeling man.  We were just starting to get busy and I was excited about the future, now the phones are dead and I'm basically rescheduling all elective implant/surgery cases out.  I'm in survival mode now as well.  My staff has to bring their kids to work because their day cares are closed and husbands are working.  I'm about to completely reduce the hours on most of the staff and going to let one go.  It's going to hit her hard as she's barely surviving as is with this job.  It's messing with my head knowing the struggle she's about to endure because I'm not seeing anyone hiring right now in our field.   

On another note, my wife works at the HQ of a big retail company that's heading the way of sears.  It's the corporate HQ with thousands of employees.  They are basically forcing them to come in.  Everyone is scared to request to work from home.  They are publicly saying you can go home if you feel inclined, but anyone that requests to do so has to go through HR and people are scared they will be the first to get laid off if they request to work from home.  The CEO is a complete bitch and even people in managing positions are worried to as to work from home.  Morale at her company was already low with all their layoffs, it's terrible now.  I'm fully expecting her to lose her job as she's 100% not going to work with thousands of people in the same building, many of whom are still traveling for work to cities like NYC and Vegas.  Her own assistant is coming back from Vegas this week.  

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deadshank

deadshank 24,652

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1 hour ago, Steamboat1874 said:

It is not a small business by any means but KB Homes, one of our biggest customers, just shut down all construction until at least the end of the month.

Pretty sure other large home builders are going to follow suit.

What do you sell?

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LebongJames

LebongJames 1,791

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1 hour ago, Steamboat1874 said:

It is not a small business by any means but KB Homes, one of our biggest customers, just shut down all construction until at least the end of the month.

Pretty sure other large home builders are going to follow suit.

What market?

We do work for a lot of the top 25 but haven’t heard any of them say they are halting production. In fact DR Horton told me absolutely not this morning.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8,349

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This came up in another thread, but it's interesting to think about how much cash Tilman Fertitta is hemorrhaging on a daily basis. Casinos, cruises, restaurants, an NBA franchise in limbo, amusement parks (still open as of last night), hotels...he's like a one-man Las Vegas, and Vegas is not going to fare well. 

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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15 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

This came up in another thread, but it's interesting to think about how much cash Tilman Fertitta is hemorrhaging on a daily basis. Casinos, cruises, restaurants, an NBA franchise in limbo, amusement parks (still open as of last night), hotels...he's like a one-man Las Vegas, and Vegas is not going to fare well. 

me = feel cry

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Zombie

Zombie 284

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I'm a commercial landlord with about 10 small businesses in my properties. [/CSB] I've let them know we'll work something out if their cash flow dries up for the next few months. I don't see how anyone wins if you're evicting tenants and you have a vacant space for months.  We all need to work together and understand we live and die together in this mother fucking storm.

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Moby Ric

Moby Ric 2,058

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6 minutes ago, Zombie said:

I'm a commercial landlord with about 10 small businesses in my properties. [/CSB] I've let them know we'll work something out if their cash flow dries up for the next few months. I don't see how anyone wins if you're evicting tenants and you have a vacant space for months.  We all need to work together and understand we live and die together in this mother fucking storm.

If there is any silver lining to this it is hope that it brings us all back together, even if it is just for little bit.  We all need to have each others backs.

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Lhorn

Lhorn 4,908

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The local strip clubs likely be hit hard...

It’s not like those ladies are good with money or have other skills/degrees to fall back on. Many may turn to hooking to make ends meet. Using their supple, nubile young bodies to provide immense sexual pleasure for probably not much money - I mean, god forbid.
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Jameslaw121

Jameslaw121 4,448

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3 minutes ago, Lhorn said:


It’s not like those ladies are good with money or have other skills to fall back on. Many may turn to hooking to make ends meet. Using their supple, nubile young bodies to provide immense sexual pleasure for probably not much money - I mean, god forbid.

ISWYDT

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bmbmd

bmbmd 1,027

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I don't know if any of you olds (or young, for that matter) have ever visited Crown and Anchor Pub, but the head hefe' at the joint, Derven, was my suite-mate in college a lifetime ago.  They closed today-Saint Patrick's Day-and must be worried to death about the future of that proud establishment.  When this is all over, go to the C&A, buy a burger and a few beers, shoot some pool, tip your server handsomely, and tell Derven Bill said hello.  

Edited by bmbmd
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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

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9 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

It is not a small business by any means but KB Homes, one of our biggest customers, just shut down all construction until at least the end of the month.

Pretty sure other large home builders are going to follow suit.

For fuck’s sake they’re one of the builders I was looking at

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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

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55 minutes ago, bmbmd said:

I don't know if any of you olds (or young, for that matter) have ever visited Crown and Anchor Pub, but the head hefe' at the joint, Derven, was my suite-mate in college a lifetime ago.  They closed today-Saint Patrick's Day-and must be worried to death about the future of that proud establishment.  When this is all over, go to the C&A, buy a burger and a few beers, shoot some pool, tip your server handsomely, and tell Derven Bill said hello.  

C & A closing would be fucking terrible. That was my go to bar during law school. I still stop by every home game for a brew and burger. 

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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Mach 1

Mach 1 1,677

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9 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

It is not a small business by any means but KB Homes, one of our biggest customers, just shut down all construction until at least the end of the month.

Pretty sure other large home builders are going to follow suit.

Their stocks will get hit, but they'll be fine, they self finance or have the muscle to tell the banks to fuck off.  Smaller, private builders (like me) are busy reading their construction loans (with personal guarantees) to see if the force majeure clauses include pandemics or not.  Google Law says if they don't (which my guess is most) then it's a very gray area and lenders could press for a default.  I'd be interested in Surly Lawyer opinion on this.

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

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On 3/16/2020 at 3:28 PM, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

My brother is in the final leg of opening a barre studio for/with his wife in Austin. He’s currently hosting a global Online summit for the coronavirus this week for his real job so he is well informed but certainly not a good time to be months away from a planned business opening that is centered around groups of people. The past two weeks and rest of the month was their heavy marketing/introduction phase but that’s been put on hold now. Will talk to him this week and see what their plans are now. Very sad. 

Ninety-nine percent sure I know your brother and SIL.  They're great people. 

I'll make sure to buy a few class passes from them to hand out to friends and family when the time comes. 

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DalTxHornFan

DalTxHornFan 3,097

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No doubt that the powers that be are placing a priority on this potential medical threat versus placing a priority on a very real economic catastrophe.  Benjamin Franklin said something to the effect of "those that would trade liberty for security will end up with neither" -- I think that is where we are headed with all of this nonsense.

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tx ind

tx ind 7,006

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7 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

This came up in another thread, but it's interesting to think about how much cash Tilman Fertitta is hemorrhaging on a daily basis. Casinos, cruises, restaurants, an NBA franchise in limbo, amusement parks (still open as of last night), hotels...he's like a one-man Las Vegas, and Vegas is not going to fare well. 

Yup I know someone in their corp office and they’re freaking the eff out as they’re pretty levered and all their shit is shutting down...60k employees.

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DalTxHornFan

DalTxHornFan 3,097

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7 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

This came up in another thread, but it's interesting to think about how much cash Tilman Fertitta is hemorrhaging on a daily basis. Casinos, cruises, restaurants, an NBA franchise in limbo, amusement parks (still open as of last night), hotels...he's like a one-man Las Vegas, and Vegas is not going to fare well. 

No shit.  I'm so excited about all of the Morton's Steakhouse "to go deals" that he's been sending out emails about.  No thanks.  They are so screwed.

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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 47,006

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18 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

No doubt that the powers that be are placing a priority on this potential medical threat versus placing a priority on a very real economic catastrophe.  Benjamin Franklin said something to the effect of "those that would trade liberty for security will end up with neither" -- I think that is where we are headed with all of this nonsense.

Fucking this. You simply can not shut down a country for a lengthy period of time that's basis is on commerce, human interaction of all sorts and money. I know they think they are doing the world a favor but we are not meant for this at all. We all do not live far apart from each other and live off our own land. We depend on other humans out there working in all professions. It's a huge domino effect. Sure, you can be solving one problem of the health crisis but the economic disaster is going to hit very hard and will have so many consequences. I get that the powers in place are immune to all this and live in their own bubble and really don't give a shit about the aftermath as they can take credit for their "hero" moment.

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bmbmd

bmbmd 1,027

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1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

C & A closing would be fucking terrible. That was my go to bar during law school. I still stop by every home game for a brew and burger. 

Looks like they’re going to open for carry out 11-2

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Stringer

Stringer 1,438

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https://www.takeouttracker.com/

Good resource for Austin restaurants with takeout and curbside takeout (depending on your comfort level).  

Please support where you can.  My buddy from college owns Patrizi's.  He was about to open a new restaurant and this will be a huge set back. He's done well, but he's the type that will make sure his people are fed before he is.  So a little worried he's going to run himself into debt.  

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dcar00

dcar00 14,148

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3 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

Fucking this. You simply can not shut down a country for a lengthy period of time that's basis is on commerce, human interaction of all sorts and money. I know they think they are doing the world a favor but we are not meant for this at all. We all do not live far apart from each other and live off our own land. We depend on other humans out there working in all professions. It's a huge domino effect. Sure, you can be solving one problem of the health crisis but the economic disaster is going to hit very hard and will have so many consequences. I get that the powers in place are immune to all this and live in their own bubble and really don't give a shit about the aftermath as they can take credit for their "hero" moment.

after this, there needs to be s strict defcon like step level for shutting the country down.  trigger points at which certain things happen, certain businesses stay open, certain essentials are limited to purchase, critical retail supply chains are converted to emergency support, food/essentials supply chains need redundancy, auto triggers for unemployment, payroll tax reductions, other automatic financial triggers, etc.  I realize this wouldn't be easy but someone has to take this on and constantly be updating. there needs to be website just for this that everyone can clearly understand.  The politicians need to be taken out of the loop except for a key team that would be designated and continually updated.

 It should have been done after H1N1 but whatever.  It needs to be done now.

A blanket health emergency and then a blanket National Emergency is not the right answer.

 

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