Thread of local businesses that don't survive the coronavirus

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

6 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Putting a plug in for Fonda San Miguel - I hadn't eaten there in years but they are doing a great family style deal with a choice of three dishes (Rotisserie Chicken, Pork Chops, Pork Baked in Banana Leafs) Rice/Beans/Hot Sauce/Chips on side.

Curb side, you never get out and they put food in car wearing gloves, touching nothing. We have been eating for like 3 days.

 

I just checked -- Cochinita Pibil for 4 for $45 including sides?  Sign me the hell up.  Are the proportions right or is it more like "feeds 6"?  (Even better.)

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

Eldorado has closed until 4/4.  While I only know Joel to say "hi", I know some of his employees pretty well, and let's just say things are not looking good.

That. Fucking. Sucks.  They busted ass to make a new restaurant not only work from a food perspective but they were a bona fide hit.

[CooterBrown 18,003]

Top Notch and Little Deli also gave up on the take out model and closed. We are about to lose hundreds of locals businesses.

[LebongJames 1,791]

I know I sound like a crazy person. But with these absolutely unheard of times. I think the government will step in and help these small businesses. I’m probably wrong but I feel that it will happen.

[bluto 4,912]

I saw Fort Worth closed barbershops so I texted my barber over there to see if he was doing house calls/bandit shop somewhere, I’d let the dude setup shop on my porch and have friends come by if he wanted. All he said was “thanks, I’ll let you know if something changes”.... damn well willing to pay him 2x for a cut

[Shaddie 1,651]

1 minute ago, bluto said:

I saw Fort Worth closed barbershops!!! willing to pay him 2x for a cut

Wife knows I get pissy if haircut isn’t every 4 weeks. Looks like the dog shears for me next week. 

[BrazilHorn 6,586]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I just checked -- Cochinita Pibil for 4 for $45 including sides?  Sign me the hell up.  Are the proportions right or is it more like "feeds 6"?  (Even better.)

More like feeds 6. Have had multiple meaIs. Made some leftovers with eggs, jalapeños and it was great. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

I sent my hair cut person some money. I had an appointment in two weeks which probably won’t happen now, so didn’t want any interruption in money they rely on. I’m lucky to WFH. 

[tx 3 putt 76,869]

2 hours ago, Shaddie said:

Wife knows I get pissy if haircut isn’t every 4 weeks. Looks like the dog shears for me next week. 

im every 2 weeks, growing it out until this calms down some 

[atomheartbevo 89,626]

Neighbor said Terra Toys is doing curbside.   Contact them through Facebook and they will send photos/videos of their stock   

 Apparently jigsaw puzzles are selling out everywhere as well.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,065]

Yeah- that make sure you order takeout thing that people are trying to do is a pipe dream that was never going to work. Those guys should all just shut down- they are dead men walking

Margins on all businesses that are retail in nature are so damn small that none of this shit ever had a chance to work. Thinking otherwise is essentially nothing more than wishful thinking. 

Retail/hospitality has been kicked in the head over and over and over again- I feel like this is a death knell for it. 

Every change that’s been coming is going to get exacerbated. I have no idea what comes out of this in the reshuffle but I’m sure, for many, it’s going to be terrifying. 

[Guest Lobo]

I usually pay a whopping $20, but in about 3-4 weeks time, I'm surely I'll be looking into $75 cuts that come to you.  I'm sure there'll be an app for that shortly.  But how do you know about the cleanliness of their equipment, I guess?  Maybe they roll in with a jar of barbicide and you both just stare at it for ten minutes until it's time to get started?    We're still talking about haircuts, right?  

Edited March 22, 2020 by Lobo

[Druggist 303]

4 hours ago, Cousin Strawberry said:

That place is awesome. Great people.  Fajita ranchera slams.

I’ve been going To Habanero’s 1-2 Wednesdays a month for years for the fajita ranchera special.  Best damn fajitas I’ve ever had and it’s not close.  <$10 too.  
Sad about little deli and El Dorado too as they are near my house and my family loves both. 
 

[Bevo 13,564]

11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Eldorado has closed until 4/4.  While I only know Joel to say "hi", I know some of his employees pretty well, and let's just say things are not looking good.

That. Fucking. Sucks.  They busted ass to make a new restaurant not only work from a food perspective but they were a bona fide hit.

This is the white people's mexican food on Anderson Lane?

[GhostOfTomJoad 9,323]

Been getting curbside from local restaurants once a day but don't know how long that will sustain some of them. Moutons in Cedar Park has laid off all staff minus the manager & a cook.

Went to Whitestone Brewery on Thursday & stocked up on plenty of beer, and extended my pub club membership while there. The owner gave me a look of great thanks & pain.

Edited March 22, 2020 by GhostOfTomJoad

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,652]

23 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Been getting curbside from local restaurants once a gay but don't know how long that will sustain some of them. Moutons in Cedar Park has laid off all staff minus the manager & a cook.

Went to Whitestone Brewery on Thursday & stocked up on plenty of beer, and extended my pub club membership while there. The owner gave me a look of great thanks & pain.

So many questions. 

[Chet Steadman 940]

11 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Top Notch and Little Deli also gave up on the take out model and closed. We are about to lose hundreds of locals businesses.

L.D. was kinda shocking.  A couple of the pizza restaurants I’ve talked to have said they’re doing quite well.  Figured they would have been doing okay.  
 

IMO, still the best pizza in town.  

[Chet Steadman 940]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Neighbor said Terra Toys is doing curbside.   Contact them through Facebook and they will send photos/videos of their stock   

 Apparently jigsaw puzzles are selling out everywhere as well.  

I’ve been inside Terra multiple times this week to let the little one pick out something to pass the time.  Love that store but sadly I can’t see them staying open through this mess.  Every time except one, I’ve been the only one in there.  

[Ths71 472]

Pretty good idea from Frisco:

ATTENTION LOCAL FRISCO RESTAURANTS.

The Frisco Fire Fighters are asking you to DM us the following: Restaurant Name, Address and Phone Numbers so our On Duty Members can place food orders. Every member per shift pitches in $10.00 for meals.

Everyday the Frisco Fire Fighters are on shift for 24 hours to serve when you call 911. We want to continue that assistance in our community where we can during these financial hardships due to the shut down.

We will make sure a list goes out to each fire station in their response districts and encourage our members to eat out for their meals. This is in hopes of helping our community business owners take on this unexpected burden. #supportlocal


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[deadshank 24,652]

1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Been getting curbside from local restaurants once a gay but don't know how long that will sustain some of them. Moutons in Cedar Park has laid off all staff minus the manager & a cook.

Went to Whitestone Brewery on Thursday & stocked up on plenty of beer, and extended my pub club membership while there. The owner gave me a look of great thanks & pain.

"Once a gay," huh?  NTTWM

[deadshank 24,652]

10 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I sent my hair cut person some money. I had an appointment in two weeks which probably won’t happen now, so didn’t want any interruption in money they rely on. I’m lucky to WFH. 

I shot 2 doe for my barber this past season.  I paid for one to be processed and he paid for the other.  I ususally just give him venison in many processed forms.   Haven't paid for a haircut in years.  

[Tailgate 3,021]

Salt Lick started delivering in a radius around their driftwood location. May have to hit that up this week.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9,323]

8 minutes ago, deadshank said:

"Once a gay," huh?  NTTWM

Shit, now THAT'S a typo. At least I didn't leave my browser tabs open.

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

This is the white people's mexican food on Anderson Lane?

While I wouldn't describe it that way . . . yup.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9,323]

Silly question, but why aren't blue laws suspended during this pandemic? Gov Abbott's already allowing booze to go (with food purchase) so why not let people buy their beer & wine at their convenience instead of having to wait until noon on Sunday? It would also reduce congestion at the stores plus help support the local brewers that are on the shelves. 

[Js1 85,275]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I sent my hair cut person some money. I had an appointment in two weeks which probably won’t happen now, so didn’t want any interruption in money they rely on. I’m lucky to WFH. 

Same. Bought a gift certificate for the amount + tip I’d have paid next Saturday if they were open. They were grateful. 

Coworker’s husband is a brewer and I got some neighbors in my building to pitch in with me and we’re buying a shit ton of growlers and crowlers from him. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,447]

I’m admittedly a dumb on the restaurant business. Could most successful places come back with rent forgiveness + very low interest loans from the government? 

[hornbri 1,396]

16 hours ago, TexasMan said:

My girlfriend's friend's dad's place Habanero's on Oltorf and 1st said its gonna get dicey if things aren't up and running again after April 1st. 

Was hoping to get some barbacoa, but they already shut down yesterday. 

I love that place!

[ChickenSandwich 9,826]

40 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m admittedly a dumb on the restaurant business. Could most successful places come back with rent forgiveness + very low interest loans from the government? 

For a sole proprietor probably not. If you lay off all employees immediately, your odds would greatly increase. 

[LTtxfan 49,143]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

This is the white people's mexican food on Anderson Lane?

 

[LebongJames 1,791]

58 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m admittedly a dumb on the restaurant business. Could most successful places come back with rent forgiveness + very low interest loans from the government? 

Really depends but I think more can survive than some think if rent is taken out of the picture. They do need to get rid of middle managers and higher hourly/salary employees unfortunately.

Edited March 22, 2020 by LebongJames

[Wulaw Horn 19,065]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m admittedly a dumb on the restaurant business. Could most successful places come back with rent forgiveness + very low interest loans from the government? 

In a perfect world yes- but their margins are so small that they literally need every customer possible. My guess, when things start back up, is that economic hardship and lingering fear of catching the disease will keep 30-50 percent of the customer base out of the restaurant and that’s a slow bleed they absolutely cannot afford. 

But yeah- if demand went back to 100% of what it was?  Sure,  no real problem. 80%?  Doors stay open and it’s a break even or sow bleed proposition. 70% or less?  Not a chance. 

The strongest should survive and consolidate as competitors will go out of business. But the total number of restaurants- even with rent abatement and loans, is probably going down big time in the short term. 

My uncle was a restauranteur and my parents owned a restaurant that I did books and planning for. So I talked to lots of people about best practices and did a lot

of learning. I’m not an expert in this business but I’ve had a lot of exposure to it. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,065]

11 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Really depends but I think more can survive than some think if rent is taken out of the picture. They do not to get rid of middle managers and higher hourly/salary employees.

Correct. This won’t kill them in and of itself- it’s the fall out and aftermath that will be brutal. 

Also, the restaurant business is hard and exhausting. The average restaurant doesn’t see its 3rd birthday because it’s so hard. This will be the last straw for a bunch of people to cash in their chips. 

[LebongJames 1,791]

Agreed with Wulaw. My dad had a restaurant supply business my entire childhood and I worked in restaurants earlier in my life.

Location is obviously going to be king and rent reprieve will be the biggest success. 
 

Full service restaurants probably have a higher chance of surviving. Places with younger population and and more thriving social scene will bounce back a lot faster. You will probably see the Bob Woodys of the world scoop up bars from single owners.

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Silly question, but why aren't blue laws suspended during this pandemic? Gov Abbott's already allowing booze to go (with food purchase) so why not let people buy their beer & wine at their convenience instead of having to wait until noon on Sunday? It would also reduce congestion at the stores plus help support the local brewers that are on the shelves. 

Yeah, this started out as anecdote but it's bullshit.  Went to Trader Joe's on Sunday morning to get in there first, and of course you can't buy wine or beer.  And I'm not going back this afternoon to the madhouse just to pick up some hooch.  Or let Twin Liquors open up Sundays from noon to 6pm or something so people can stock up and spread out crowds from during the week.  If ever there was a time for Baptists to get the fuck out of the way of their own self-righteousness, it's not.  Wasn't half the point of no liquor on Sundays and nothing before noon so we'd all still show up for church?  I know half my congregation was watching the online streaming this morning with a bloody mary.  

[CooterBrown 18,003]

[BradInATX 9,208]

The worst part of this is that the restaurants that close are going to be good local places and the ones that "survive and consolidate" will be the hipster chains from California like that bag of shit True Food Kitchen.

Pretty soon every restaurant in town is going to have $22 cocktails, $11 farm to table Shiner Bocks, and organic chips and salsa for $6.99.

 

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The worst part of this is that the restaurants that close are going to be good local places and the ones that "survive and consolidate" will be the hipster chains from California like that bag of shit True Food Kitchen.

Pretty soon every restaurant in town is going to have $22 cocktails, $11 farm to table Shiner Bocks, and organic chips and salsa for $6.99.

 

I'll offer a counterargument:

People who have spent years dropping $15 a person or more at least once a day at local restaurants are going to learn how to cook for themselves, as the rest of us have been doing for years.  I suspect there will be a significantly larger portion of the population who appreciates eating for $0.30 on the dollar compared to restaurant food.  Good luck clawing that back.

[Stringer 1,438]

On 3/17/2020 at 11:17 PM, Stringer said:

https://www.takeouttracker.com/

Good resource for Austin restaurants with takeout and curbside takeout (depending on your comfort level).  

Please support where you can.  My buddy from college owns Patrizi's.  He was about to open a new restaurant and this will be a huge set back. He's done well, but he's the type that will make sure his people are fed before he is.  So a little worried he's going to run himself into debt.  

I'm going to quote myself here.  Here's a good article on the Austin pivot to helping eachother out:

Austin restaurants must pivot from feeding the public to feeding employees during shutdown

It includes a section from my buddy who owns Patrizi's.  He raised his people's pay and turned his new restaurant into a service kitchen for people who need food.  He's an amazing human.  Throw him a few bucks by picking up food at Patrizi's or send some money for his service kitchen (vicandals on Venmo)

[closetojumping 62,552]

22 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- that make sure you order takeout thing that people are trying to do is a pipe dream that was never going to work. Those guys should all just shut down- they are dead men walking

Margins on all businesses that are retail in nature are so damn small that none of this shit ever had a chance to work. Thinking otherwise is essentially nothing more than wishful thinking. 

Retail/hospitality has been kicked in the head over and over and over again- I feel like this is a death knell for it. 

Every change that’s been coming is going to get exacerbated. I have no idea what comes out of this in the reshuffle but I’m sure, for many, it’s going to be terrifying. 

Holy fuck. You are harshing my mellow like a mean motherfucker here, Wulaw. Good lord. 

In truth, yeah. This thread is somewhat focused on restaurants and bars, which is understandable, but there are a lot of retail and service businesses going through an existential crisis led by this black swan event. 

We’re silent owners of a day spa and they’ve done well, but haven’t been bathing in dough, for years. The prior owner mismanaged the place after buying it and we bought it below its value when she said “uncle”. The active partner running the place is a start-up chick who’s done well and was looking for a break for a while. Almost immediately it was a bigger ball of wax than we’d figured and the prior owner had lied about some stuff. 

3 years later, the day-to-day partner has turned the corner and distributions plus expansion were on the table for 2020. Then this. They had to close down due to state mandate yesterday. You’ve got employees, clients, partners, landlords, and vendors all suddenly confused. What do you do?

My view is that the business is still Amazon-proof. So it isn’t corona-proof. What is? Not much. So then what is the play? My input has been that we marshal our resources and fund the payroll of the staff for two months. Let this thing roll through, and then get back to work. When you get back to work, be on the lookout for dead or dying competitors and buy and grow. Give clients immediate free shit to get the women back in and getting back to a routine. 

If I’m right and we do what I’m thinking, people keep their jobs and we are Forrest Gump with the last shrimp boat working in the market. If I’m wrong, well, it would be a meaningful loss in the end. Right now it is hard to know the right move. If there is a fundamental shift in the way people think of health and wellness, which way does it go? 

Academically, it’s all interesting stuff. In the real world, the price of poker at these tables is big boy stuff until dust settles, and at that point, winners and losers will already be determined. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,065]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'll offer a counterargument:

People who have spent years dropping $15 a person or more at least once a day at local restaurants are going to learn how to cook for themselves, as the rest of us have been doing for years.  I suspect there will be a significantly larger portion of the population who appreciates eating for $0.30 on the dollar compared to restaurant food.  Good luck clawing that back.

Yep- this is what’s going to kill the restaurant industry in the aftermath of this thing- not the rent or loss of production which can be worked through, but rather the change in behavior from customers. Not all of them but when you are working with a margin where literally 10 or 15 covers a day might be the difference between making or breaking your business than yeah- that gets really tough. Mom and dad owned a breakfast/lunch place. A good hard rain on Saturday or Sunday would be the difference between a profitable week and a loss on the week. Good luck with a new normal that sees 20 or 30% less demand. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,065]

45 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Holy fuck. You are harshing my mellow like a mean motherfucker here, Wulaw. Good lord. 

In truth, yeah. This thread is somewhat focused on restaurants and bars, which is understandable, but there are a lot of retail and service businesses going through an existential crisis led by this black swan event. 

We’re silent owners of a day spa and they’ve done well, but haven’t been bathing in dough, for years. The prior owner mismanaged the place after buying it and we bought it below its value when she said “uncle”. The active partner running the place is a start-up chick who’s done well and was looking for a break for a while. Almost immediately it was a bigger ball of wax than we’d figured and the prior owner had lied about some stuff. 

3 years later, the day-to-day partner has turned the corner and distributions plus expansion were on the table for 2020. Then this. They had to close down due to state mandate yesterday. You’ve got employees, clients, partners, landlords, and vendors all suddenly confused. What do you do?

My view is that the business is still Amazon-proof. So it isn’t corona-proof. What is? Not much. So then what is the play? My input has been that we marshal our resources and fund the payroll of the staff for two months. Let this thing roll through, and then get back to work. When you get back to work, be on the lookout for dead or dying competitors and buy and grow. Give clients immediate free shit to get the women back in and getting back to a routine. 

If I’m right and we do what I’m thinking, people keep their jobs and we are Forrest Gump with the last shrimp boat working in the market. If I’m wrong, well, it would be a meaningful loss in the end. Right now it is hard to know the right move. If there is a fundamental shift in the way people think of health and wellness, which way does it go? 

Academically, it’s all interesting stuff. In the real world, the price of poker at these tables is big boy stuff until dust settles, and at that point, winners and losers will already be determined. 

Do you really disagree with anything I’m saying in my analysis though?  

Look, I have a very simple way of looking at business and it’s never steered me wrong at it goes like this:

all that matters is your break even point to run an outfit or operation in a sustainable manner, and then the marginal profit that every good or service sold- above the break even point- brings into the operation. That’s it. Nothing else really matters to me when planning or running a business. 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

Does anyone else think we are going to see a ton of vacant bar/restaurant real estate or will the mattress companies swoop in and take all of the available locations?

Edited March 23, 2020 by Grade of D as in David
English

[RMac5 1,551]

We sold our side hustle restaurant back in November, feel terrible for the new owners but so fucking glad I’m not in that mess.  

[Ths71 472]

Might be a good time for them to realize owning and operating 20 acres of prime real estate and maintaining an unnecessarily large inventory, all to project branding so that they can make their real money on financing and the service department isn't the best business model.  Still offer confiscatory in-house financing and overpriced oil changes, but lose the lot.  People know that they want these days when they arrive.  Order them the car, pass along the overhead savings to them, and let them come pick it up when it's ready.  If we can wait 6 weeks for this virus wave to pass, we can wait 6 weeks for the new Accord.    

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Lat22 4,010]

I'm not sure how many of you non Houstonians know who Michael Berry is.  He's a "polarizing" talk radio guy based here in Houston.  He's having to shut down his Republic Country Club because of this and he's not taking it lying down.  He is going nuclear on the Texas comptroller Glenn Hegar.  Check out his twitter feed and Facebook page. I'm going to assume that a majority of this board hates his guts because of his politics, but his meltdown is pretty exciting to watch.

[ChickenSandwich 9,826]

On 3/21/2020 at 2:57 PM, Lobo said:

Sorry this scenario is giving you nightmare fuel, but just wait until you hear about Covid-19.  That'll really scare you.  

I'm not suggesting my scenario is the best way to buy a car, yeah there's still something about picking your dream car off the lot and being home with it later that day.  I'm genuinely curious about what percentage of car sales across all price points are truly "spontaneous", like you woke up, decided to buy the wife a new car or whatnot and then were off the lot with payments set up within that same business day.  Anyway, the industry is moving away from the traditional car lot model.  It's much slower to take hold in Texas because of our dealership cartel.  But it'll only be accelerated by Covid-19 and the industry's slow but sure awakening that 30 acres off IH-35 isn't the cheapest way to operate a razor-thin margin business.  They'll be a middle of the road way where you can still get a car that day, or order one later, but the transition has already begun in many other states and this situation will only expand it.  I don't really care either way, just more urban blight built by dipshit developers who think they can convert every abandoned shopping mall and car dealership into a Votec campus at the same cap rate or lower.  The empty storefronts and lots we'll see for the next half decade will take a generation to get rid of.  

Curious about the spontaneity of sales as well, but on the other side...I sure the fear of buyers remorse for the dealer is real. Waiting weeks or months to receive their purchase could cause many to back out or change their minds.

[closetojumping 62,552]

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Do you really disagree with anything I’m saying in my analysis though?  

Look, I have a very simple way of looking at business and it’s never steered me wrong at it goes like this:

all that matters is your break even point to run an outfit or operation in a sustainable manner, and then the marginal profit that every good or service sold- above the break even point- brings into the operation. That’s it. Nothing else really matters to me when planning or running a business. 

I don’t really disagree that retail, of various types and in various ways, has been in trouble and this event is a kill shot for them. 

I think your method is an oversimplification for various businesses, but it’s a fine rule of thumb for small business, sure. 

I think service-based retail has both not been in trouble and might continue to not be in trouble and might actually thrive. That includes well-run restaurants. Things like grooming salons for men, hair and nail salons for women, I don’t see those things disappearing. Most women aren’t sitting around right now and talking about how much they realize they don’t miss someone else doing their hair and nails. I don’t think there’s a good replacement for a lot of that other than bad self-service. I think day spas and med spas fit that space as well. 

Gyms, movies, appliance stores, and that ilk? Yeah, I think they’re not well protected and a lot of people are finding out right now that they may not need them the way they thought they did. 

To me, restaurants and bars fall in the former space. A lot of home-cooked meals are nice, but they’re also conjuring the need to not be doing as many of them in the future. I see less restaurants but still a ton of them and hopefully better run when back operating. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,100]

Every single bar and restaurant in NYC is at risk.

Every single retail store, specialty business, and small exercise studio in NYC is at risk.

Why? So far ZERO allowance from landlords. The banks are giving relief on commercial real estate, but that is. Ot being passed on.

[G650 14,235]

37 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Why? So far ZERO allowance from landlords. The banks are giving relief on commercial real estate, but that is. Ot being passed on.

That's fucked up. Makes me glad I own my own office and yard.