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Bailouts 2020

LABEVO

By LABEVO
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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

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What if....... Progressives turn Dotard progressive and the Dotard turns Trumpkins progressive and leave the Dem establishment sniffing their own farts?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130795/Ilhan-Omar-says-shes-unison-Donald-Trump-sending-checks-Americans.html

Squad member Rep. Ilhan Omar is touting a similar cash giveaway plan to one being promoted by the White House – and is praising the Trump administration for the effort.

'In times of crisis, right, we can come together. And it's not about who is making the proposal, it's about getting the best idea out there,' Omar told the CBS affiliate in her home state of Minnesota. 

'I applaud this administration for thinking about the people, for wanting to put money in people's pockets.'

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,132

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1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

What if....... Progressives turn Dotard progressive and the Dotard turns Trumpkins progressive and leave the Dem establishment sniffing their own farts?

I think that's more a populist/corporatist thing than progressive/regressive thing.

You'll see bipartisan opposition to things like universal checks and equity-for-buyouts in the corporate wings of the parties. Pelosi and Graham will hold hand and unite on this.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,412

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Those are all great sentiments but we need to ensure that the economy is ready to ramp up as we ultimately (hopefully) get past this. Now I have zero doubt that some undeserving or unnecessary industries or companies are going to have their hands out.

we should prioritize companies by taking into account employee counts, financial health prior to the crisis, and how the funds will be utilized.

do we know if this bailout is actually just a cash giveaway or will it be considered a loan?

 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

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If American Airlines takes one red cent of government/taxpayer money, they HAD BETTER freeze status and allow it to carry over an extra year. I'll be damned if they get bailed out and I lose Executive Platinum-- I CANNOT GO BACK TO THE HORRORS OF MIDDLE SEATS!

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,331

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3 hours ago, Rougarou said:

If American Airlines takes one red cent of government/taxpayer money, they HAD BETTER freeze status and allow it to carry over an extra year. I'll be damned if they get bailed out and I lose Executive Platinum-- I CANNOT GO BACK TO THE HORRORS OF MIDDLE SEATS!

you and me both, brother. 

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horn4life

horn4life 3,755

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What we are getting today is a short term relief package, rather than a plan for economic recovery. Some funding to address the impending health disaster, but testing has been, is and will be the problem in getting the economy back.  From what I have seen thus far, we are not much closer to actually having  the "if you want a test, you can have a test" environment hat will mark a return to normalcy.

We are gonna need a bailout... for the bailout.  Then we will see lame duck Republicans do exactly what they did when they handed off a shitty economy to Obama.  They will delay voting for the the desperately needed stimulus, so that it con go on the incoming  for the new administration to put on their deficit numbers.

Edited by horn4life
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Pokoloco

Pokoloco 1,272

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The company I'm working for is already cutting salaries by 20% and suspending bonuses (for those who aren't being fired).  On top of that they will reduce our pay by the amount we're receiving from the stimulus.  So that's nice..

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zork

zork 629

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from aggy:

Quote

$75k limit for individuals to earn full $1200
$99k limit for individuals to get anything
$150k limit for couples to ear full $1200
$198k limit for individuals to get anything
$500/per child

no idea if true or not, AGI also.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,935

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A quick analysis from Matt Stoller on the amount ($6 to $10 trillion) and who it benefits. Author released copyright for the article, so here it is:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
26
Spoiler

Stop the $6 Trillion Coronavirus Corporate Coup!

On Saturday I sent out a note on the awful no good bailout bill in negotiations. I asked you to forward my newsletter, repost it, and make some noise. You did and we managed to delay the bill’s passage. Today I’m going to write about where we are now.

Since Saturday, I’ve seen an emerging right-left argument about what we need to do to address the pandemic. 

The American Economic Liberties Project (my org) put out a statement against the bill, AFL-CIO official Damon Silvers, who oversaw the 2008 bailout, put out an article against the bill, as did dozens of economics and finance professors. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned of the risks of a bill tilted to big business, as did libertarian member Justin Amash. John Cassidy wrote in the New Yorker how to do a bailout without corruption. And Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin pointed out that the bill is “robbing taxpayers to bail out the rich.”

But then these two Senators, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell, cut a deal last night. And from what I can tell, it’s really really bad, and much of the bad stuff is not being included in the sleazy marketing materials from Schumer and McConnell, or in the reporting about the bill. There’s a reason for that. Sunlight would kill this thing.

That means there is a narrow way to stop it.

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

What Is In This Bill?

Congress is going to pass a bill with a lot of important stuff for workers, hospitals, cities and small business, and to address the pandemic. That's inevitable. And the bill on the table includes some of this. The question though is what else the bill includes, and that’s where we get into trouble. Because while we have to deal with the pandemic and crisis, we do not have to fundamentally eliminate the economic rights of all of us in the process. 

Now, first I should say I don’t have the final deal in hand because it’s not public. I have only seen versions of the negotiating text. But I’m fairly sure most of these provisions haven’t changed, because the final sticking points were over various direct pandemic spending pieces. If I get that wrong, I’ll tell you in an update.

On Saturday, I went over the Christmas wish list of corporate lobbyists in this process, everything from Adidas letting people deduct gym costs to candymakers seeking a $500 million loan to Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk seeking $5B in loans for their space corporations. Of course what Wall Street sought, and got, dwarfed all of these requests. 

Here’s how you can tell. A lot of reporters have been talking about how this is a $2 trillion deal, with a bunch of spending for hospitals and whatnot. But last night White House advisor Larry Kudlow announced it is actually a $6 trillion deal. And business reporter Charlie Gasparino said he’s hearing chatter that the total will be $10 trillion! Say what?!? 

How does this work? How can Wall Street have one impression of the amount of money, and everyone else have a different impression? Easy. Confusion, lying and bad reporting. If important people don’t talk about the boring sounding big stuff, then us non-important people sound crazy or nerdy mentioning it. It’s a giant game of social climbing, and the goal is to make all of us afraid to point out what’s going on. (Incidentally I hope Rep. Brad Sherman, who is an accountant and a key anti-bailout leader, really delves into this.)

So let’s talk about the big stuff that McConnell, Schumer and Pelosi are hiding.

The bill establishes a series of boring-sounding slush funds, and these will be given strange alphabet soup names by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, names like ‘special purpose vehicle’ and ‘ABS’ and ‘TALF’ and FDIC bank guarantees. That’s where the real money is. Here are some of these slush funds, starting with the ones that are more understandable:

  • $50 billion in loans and loan guarantees to airlines

  • $8 billion in loans and loan guarantees to air cargo carriers

  • $17 billion in loans and loan guarantees to “businesses critical to national security”

  • A $425 billion fund for loans and investments to be used at the discretion of the Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin. He can use it to loan money, buy stock, buy bonds, whatever. 

Obviously helping certain enterprises is important, so I’m not opposed to industry aid. But the terms and conditions matter, and based on what I’m seeing, I don’t believe there will be meaningful restrictions on this aid. Executives and financiers are going to profit off of taxpayer money. 

So that’s the stuff that’s been reported. Here’s what hasn’t, and why the bill goes up in value to $6-10 trillion.

  • An additional $4 trillion from the Federal Reserve in lending power to be lent to big corporations and banks. 

  • Authorization to bail out money market funds, multi-trillion dollar unregulated bank-like deposits for the superrich. 

  • Authorization for the the government through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to guarantee trillions of dollars of risky bank debt.

There’s more. This is a long bill, but to give you one simple data point, here’s what happened to Citibank’s bonds over the last few days. 

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

That big spike shows the bonds getting much riskier, and the collapse shows the result of Wall Street being convinced this bill will pass and the bonds will be guaranteed by the government. Hedge fund guys knew this move would happen, and speculated around this move before it did. Front-running the Fed for easy profits wasn’t even hidden; David Tepper, among other money managers, was on CNBC talking about how he’s investing in bank debt.

While there isn’t a direct statement ‘we are handing a gift out to XYZ,’ legislative graft doesn’t work that way. The bill is authorization to restructure the economy according to the preferences of a very small group of people. Or to make it simpler, here’s what happened to Boeing’s stock price yesterday.

Image

Now again, Boeing is an important enterprise, and we should save it. (Here’s a plan to do just that, and if you are interested, a web eventtomorrow to discuss how to do so.) But saving Boeing is different from saving Boeing’s shareholders and CEO. Guess which one this bill does?

The marketing pitch from Chuck Schumer on why a Wall Street bailout isn’t that bad is there’s disclosure, some oversight, and reporting requirements. Aside from the fact that none of this worked in the first set of bailouts, this stuff probably only applies to one slush fund in the bill. More to the point, financiers are already stealing, as I showed with the Citibank bond spreads. It’s hard to convey just how ugly this program is, already the Federal Reserve hired the largest asset manager in the world to run its multi-trillion dollar bailout. The bailout is already privatized with a conflicted operator, before it has even started! 

And remember, this bailout isn’t necessary. Hospitals need money, patients need ventilators, and people need to pay rent, but Wall Street is going to be fine regardless.

Temporary Distressed Positions

Numbers like $6 trillion or even $10 trillion of government-backed credit to Wall Street are so large they don’t mean anything Fortunately, a majorlaw major firm with a big mergers and acquisitions practice put it into context for us, with a memo to clients about how to prepare for this moment.

As stock prices decrease in response to market uncertainty, directors of public companies should be prepared to respond to increasing levels of shareholder activism and unsolicited takeover offers, as opportunistic parties with strong balance sheets look to take advantage of companies in temporary distressed positions.

In other words, millions of small and medium sized businesses are going to have no access to cash and revenue freezes, because of the pandemic and economic restrictions. And while there are provisions in the bill to get these businesses money, the reality is that neither our government nor our banks have the operational competence to write and direct checks quickly enough to avoid distress. Much of the cash out the door provisions for small businesses will actually be stolen by the payday lender-style ‘fintech’ operators authorized in the bill to make loans, a provision stuck in there by Senator Mark Warner.

The cash freeze to small business is already causing a crisis. FTC Commissioner Rohit Chopra made these points on Tucker Carlson last night. First, he noted, small business loan sharks are “crippling cash-strapped companies” with onerous contracts. Second, powerful corporations are using their position to cut off small businesses from supply chains. And third, corporate raiders are planning to buy up these businesses cheap. “Corporate raiders and PE firms are already sharpening their knives,” said one Goldman Sachs associate. 

And that’s where this legislation comes in. Wall Street, with this bill, will now have $4-6T of government guaranteed low cost credit to go shopping for businesses in trouble. We could see the mother of all roll-ups, as small and medium sized businesses desperately try to get whatever they can from deep-pocketed private equity investors and monopolists. If that happens, America could look like a very different country after this pandemic is over. 

Moving Forward

Nothing is inevitable. This bill can be stopped, for a weird procedural reason. While Senators are in town, House members are actually scattered about the country. This means the House can’t actually vote on the bill. But if the House is in session, the bill can be passed through what’s called ‘unanimous consent,’ which means that if a single House member shows up to object, it can’t move forward. So all we need is a single member of Congress to object. Here’s Justin Amash, a libertarian from Michigan, with the right attitude. I hope he does object. I’m sure there are others, though the logistics of getting to DC are hard.

We can fight this bill. Remember, Congress is going to pass a bill with a lot of important stuff for workers, hospitals, cities and small business, and to address the pandemic. That's inevitable. If we do stop it, Congress will simply pass the same bill, strip out all the slush funds, and take that stuff on in a few weeks. This is a crisis, they are getting sick, and they know we have to act.

Even if this bill passes, we can keep fighting against the misuse of such a giant corporate slush fund, and continue to build a left-right coalition against cronyism. The one thing I have learned in politics is that we are not powerless, if we are honest about the moral terms. 

A lot of people are likely to die in the next few months, and it is going to be awful. And this is largely because of the same reckless leadership class that is now using this moment to hand political power over to financiers. But all of us are learning lessons about what it means to build a more resilient, free and democratic society and business community. My hope is that we can put those lessons to work, sooner rather than later.

Thanks for reading. And if you liked this essay, you can sign up here for more issues of BIG, a newsletter on how to restore fair commerce, innovation and democracy. If you want to a book to hunker down with while sheltering in place, read my book, Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy.

cheers,

Matt Stoller

P.S. I am releasing all copyright claims on this essay. Take it! It’s yours!

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/stop-the-6-trillion-coronavirus-corporate

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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What a trash bailout deal. Should’ve just passed payouts to all Americans with claw backs based on income later. Then a real debate over how to handle bailouts and other stimulus. Instead lump a bunch of shit together. Just total Washington trash. Screw all these scumbags. 

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pacman

pacman 7,329

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Senate Republicans inserted an easy-to-overlook provision on page 203 of the 880-page bill that would permit wealthy investors to use losses generated by real estate to minimize their taxes on profits from things like investments in the stock market. The estimated cost of the change over 10 years is $170 billion.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/finance-real-estate/bonanza-for-rich-real-estate-investors-tucked-into-stimulus-package/ar-BB11L4im

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zork

zork 629

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President Donald Trump on Friday signed a $2 trillion stimulus billthat would cut $1,200 checks to many adults, expand unemployment insurance payments and extend loans to businesses, all in an effort to combat the coronavirus outbreak’s toll on the economy. Trump signed the bill hours after the House of Representatives passed the legislation in a voice vote. Senators unanimously passed the meaure on Wednesday.

Spoiler

 

The bill will also allocate $350 billion in loans to small businesses to help keep them afloat during the weeks (or more) when many businesses are closed in an effort to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. It will also give $100 billion to help hospitals that are either struggling to cope with the influx of patients or braced for a surge in coronavirus patients. The government will also provide a $500 billion fund, which will include $46 billion for commercial airlines, among other industries, and $454 billion for the Federal Reserve to leverage businesses, states and municipalities.

As for consumers, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Wednesday said that direct payments to many Americans under the stimulus bill would come within three weeks. Other commentators have said it may take longer than that. You can read text of bill here. Here some specifics on the “recovery rebates” in the bill:

Taxpayers making $75,000 and below will receive a $1,200 check. Married couples making $150,000 and below will receive $2,400. Individuals and couples under this earnings cap would also receive $500 per child. “For the vast majority of Americans, no action on their part will be required in order to receive a rebate check,” according to the bill analysis from Grassley’s office.

 

Approximately 140 million households will receive a direct rebate, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank. That’s about 93% of all taxpayers, according Erica York, an economist at the think tank. The IRS received 155.7 million individual returns during the last tax year, according to the tax collector’s statistics.

The money does not count as taxable income. A Republican Finance Committee aide said also said people filing as “head of household” on their taxes – meaning they are unmarried, have children or dependents and pay more than half of their household expenses — will get the $1,200 check if making $112,500 and below.

 

The earnings threshold is measured by adjusted gross income. That is, gross income, minus adjustments. The IRS will either use a taxpayer’s 2018 return or their 2019 return, which are the filings due in the current tax season, to determine the size of the rebate check. (On the 2018 returns, the adjusted gross income number is on Box 7 in a person’s 1040 form. On the 1040 form for the 2019 returns, adjusted gross income is found on Box 8b.)

Those receiving Social Security benefits will be eligible, according to an analysis of the bill from Sen. Charles Grassley, a Republican from Iowa. Green card holders, in addition to citizens, qualify for the check, the Republican Finance Committee aide noted.

The checks phase out for incomes above $75,000 a year. That’s capped for individuals making above $99,000 a year. For married couples, income of $198,000 a year is the cap and, for people filing as the head of household, it’s $146,500 a year, according to the analysis from Grassley’s office.

Rebates decline $5 for every $100 above the annual $75,000/$150,000 income ceiling. The rebate decreases at the same rate for children in households above the threshold, York said.

 

The average rebate check will work out to $1,523, according to Tax Foundation estimates. If a taxpayer’s previous tax returns put them above the income threshold, but in the coming year they will make below that limit, York said the IRS will apply the rebate next tax season. “They’ll be made right when they file their 2020 tax return,” York said.

See also:What the $2 trillion stimulus package means for you and the economy

On the flip side, suppose a taxpayer now qualifies for the payment and gets the check. But then that person’s earnings this year end up exceeding the income cap. The IRS will not claw back that money come next tax season, York said.

The IRS will transmit the payment via a direct deposit. It will use the bank-account information from the taxpayer’s 2018 or 2019 return. Tax season for the 2019 return is open until July 15. The Treasury Department pushed back both the income tax payment and filing deadlines from April 15 to July 15 to free up cash individuals and businesses might need now.

The IRS on Thursday created a link where the agency says it will provide updates about the stimulus payment checks.

Trump signed the bill after markets closed for the day. The S&P 500 SPX, -3.36% finished the day dropping 88.60 points, or 3.4%, to finish at 2,541.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -4.05% fell 915.39 points, or 4.1%, to end at 21,636.78. Nevertheless, the markets made some rebounds during the week after losses earlier in the month.

Coronavirus had infected at least 92,932 people in the U.S. as of Friday and killed at least 1,380 people, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Worldwide, there were 566,269 confirmed cases of the virus and 26,455 reported deaths; 127,768 people have recovered. 

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-2-trillion-stimulus-will-mean-to-you-2020-03-25?mod=home-page

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Gotta say, I am so inspired by the leadership of Slay Kween Pelosi and Working Class Joe on this. They're just outlining a clear vision on how to reign in this horrific corporate excess and abuse.

Such leadership. I've got a single tear rolling down my cheek.

They’re all such assholes. Yes, both sides. 
 

Trump may get lucky and back into some of his pet ideas getting implemented. Coercing or incentivizing companies to bring some of their manufacturing and aspects of their supply chain home for national security reasons. Would put people to work and the increased costs would raise prices and potentially help offset the massive deflationary forces we’re fighting. Or he could fuck it up. TBD. 
 

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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5 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

They’re all such assholes. Yes, both sides. 
 

Trump may get lucky and back into some of his pet ideas getting implemented. Coercing or incentivizing companies to bring some of their manufacturing and aspects of their supply chain home for national security reasons. Would put people to work and the increased costs would raise prices and potentially help offset the massive deflationary forces we’re fighting. Or he could fuck it up. TBD. 
 

 

There is the whole issue of having both scumball branches of Congress pass something that isn’t overtly benefitting the rich. When Mitch and Nance work together to pass something you can bet who it’s going to help first. 

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