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Corona spread prevention limit?


CBHorn

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As more and more states increase efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19 and the restrictions on citizens and business get more strict, a question comes to mind.  These restrictions are already causing massive damage to the economy.  People are losing jobs. Small businesses face difficult times.  Retirement accounts are getting hammered.  Personal liberty has been severely restricted.

 

Is there a limit to how for we are willing to go?  Is there any point where the damage to society as a whole is greater than the damage of allowing the disease to spread?  If so, what do you those limits look like?

 

I'm not trying to say we shouldn't do anything.  This is obvious unprecedented territory.  But, I do think we need to consider all the ramifications of the preventative actions. 

Edited by CBHorn
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The economic and public health fallout would be far worse and go on much longer if we sit around and let this thing spread. Near term pain is worth it - the economy can't stand on it's own if the virus continues to spread and the health care system is overwhelmed. Not to mention the loss of life 

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17 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

The economic and public health fallout would be far worse and go on much longer if we sit around and let this thing spread. Near term pain is worth it - the economy can't stand on it's own if the virus continues to spread and the health care system is overwhelmed. Not to mention the loss of life 

 

Is your viewpoint that any measure is acceptable?  Anything you wouldn't agree to?  What if these drastic measures aren't enough and the healthcare system is overwhelmed anyways?

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6 minutes ago, CBHorn said:

 

Is your viewpoint that any measure is acceptable?  Anything you wouldn't agree to?  What if these drastic measures are enough and the healthcare system is overwhelmed anyways?

Italy has already provided the case study as to what happens if you hold your nuts. They are proper fucked 

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My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

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8 minutes ago, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

Blind panic caused hospitals to run out of ventilators in Italy? 

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9 minutes ago, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

 

"The Finnish government suddenly woke up last Monday and implemented severe measures against the spread of Covid-19. Schools and borders are closed, all non-essential gatherings of more than ten people are forbidden, and the elderly and chronically ill were put in a high level of isolation. Most importantly, after a period of losing count, testing is to be ramped up.'

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/columns/columns/viewpoint/17457-here-is-how-finland-can-come-out-of-the-shut-down-very-fast.html

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Blind panic caused hospitals to run out of ventilators in Italy?

Blind panic caused the schools to be closed when there appears to be a zero mortality rate in the 0-29 age groups.  Here in my town, they let the kids come eat breakfast and lunch in the cafeterias, but no classes.  Does that make sense to you?

As far as 90 year old chain smoking Italians, ventilators weren't going to keep them alive forever.

Look, you be as afraid as you want to be.  Nobody is going to talk you out of it.

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1 minute ago, Cornfusion said:

Blind panic caused the schools to be closed when there appears to be a zero mortality rate in the 0-29 age groups.  Here in my town, they let the kids come eat breakfast and lunch in the cafeterias, but no classes.  Does that make sense to you?

As far as 90 year old chain smoking Italians, ventilators weren't going to keep them alive forever.

Look, you be as afraid as you want to be.  Nobody is going to talk you out of it.

Yes.  They are trying to minimize contact as much as possible but have to weigh that against children starving to death because school meals are the only food they get.  Many schools aren't setup to do delivery and many kids don't have a safe place to eat other than at school.  Children might have a low mortality - but its not the children they are so worried about - it is all of the other people those children have infected.  Its the reason that your example of sane decision making (Finland) closed down all the schools, closed the borders, and is now testing everyone.

 

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"The Finnish government suddenly woke up last Monday and implemented severe measures against the spread of Covid-19

Here is what the kid said:  "There's ten cases confirmed her in Rovaniemi and not everything is shut down.  There's less panic here than there is there (United States) it sounds to me.  They're also not testing nearly as much as they were before..."

But if it's printed in the newspaper, it's got to be true...right?

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Just now, Cornfusion said:

Here is what the kid said:  "There's ten cases confirmed her in Rovaniemi and not everything is shut down.  There's less panic here than there is there (United States) it sounds to me.  They're also not testing nearly as much as they were before..."

But if it's printed in the newspaper, it's got to be true...right?

As opposed to...  your kid?  Yeah - I'm going with the newspaper.

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Yes.  They are trying to minimize contact as much as possible but have to weigh that against children starving to death because school meals are the only food they get

I'm sorry, I didn't know you had ever visited my town to know all of this.  Tell me, when did the Columbus Food Pantry and Columbus Rescue Mission close down?  Because the latter was still open last night when I went there to help out.  Should we arrest all of the parents here in Platte County who are letting their kids starve?  

Last words are yours.  Try not to be silly.

Edited by Cornfusion
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On 3/18/2020 at 9:02 PM, 6th Street said:

The economic and public health fallout would be far worse and go on much longer if we sit around and let this thing spread. Near term pain is worth it - the economy can't stand on it's own if the virus continues to spread and the health care system is overwhelmed. Not to mention the loss of life 

I don't think that people really appreciate what a completely overwhelmed health care system, in the context of a highly contagious novel respiratory infection soaking up the the acute care capacity, would look like in this country.  If the measures we are taking do not bend the curve, they are about to get a big taste of it.  

Edited by Anastasis
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2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Locking down this country will be much more complicated due to the 300 million guns on the street. 

I think that it makes it much easier. 

I also think that we should have open season to shoot people who break a quarantine without compelling cause, so maybe we are approaching this from different perspectives. :)

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I like how people say that it’s overly paranoid and stupid to predict this virus could kill millions and overwhelm the healthcare system, then turn right around and claim that shutting down the country for a month will cause irreversible economic damage and total anarchy. 

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47 minutes ago, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

Congratulations for comparing fucking Finland to the United States. Man this whole thing has had some absolute morons come out of the woodwork on this site. 

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2 minutes ago, Cornfusion said:

I'm sorry, I didn't know you had ever visited my town to know all of this.  Tell me, when did the Columbus Food Pantry and Columbus Rescue Mission close down?  Because the latter was still open last night when I went there to help out.  Should we arrest all of the parents here in Platte County who are letting their kids starve?  

Last words are yours.  Try not to be silly.

I worked for a decade in the Chicago Public School system.  CPS doesn't close down schools unless they absolutely have to - and even when they do close the schools down, the kitchens stay open because a size-able portion of the student population relies on breakfast and lunch at school as their only meals of the day. 

Chicago has a shit ton of shelters, food banks and charitable organizations that provide food & clothing to any who want it - and yet way too many students go to school hungry and in clothes that should have been thrown away.  

I wasn't being hyperbolic when I said that schools were keeping children from starving.

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1 hour ago, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/thl_director_number_of_corona_cases_in_finland_may_be_20-30_times_higher_than_official_count/11259388

 

By 20 March, approximately 450 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have been diagnosed in Finland. This figure is based on laboratory-confirmed figures collected manually by THL directly from the hospital districts.

https://thl.fi/en/web/infectious-diseases/what-s-new/coronavirus-covid-19-latest-updates

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1 hour ago, Cornfusion said:

Blind panic caused the schools to be closed when there appears to be a zero mortality rate in the 0-29 age groups.

it's only a matter of time (might've already happened) until we start hearing about 8 year old kids who inadvertently murdered their grandparents because they were still at school and were passing this shit around yet showed no symptoms.

the issue we can't seem to wrap our collective head around is that the young, while far less likely to get seriously ill, are far more likely to spread the virus, because they're out and about and in close proximity to others.  we are trained in our heads to assume the sickest are the most contagious, so we're having to relearn how some of this shit works.

going on lockdown, limiting all interaction with others, blanket testing - that's how you flatten the curve and allow the hospitals to do what hospitals do.

there's a difference between blind panic and justified panic.

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I personally think it's just math. Once the ventilators/pulmonary assistants>serious covid19 cases then we will rapidly get back to normal.

I think everyone would be a whole lot better off if we just focused attention on that.  Any "fear" should just be inducing guilt about not socially distancing oneself in order to avoid a longer period of serious covid19 cases>ventilators/pulmonary assistants.

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I think that it makes it much easier. 

I also think that we should have open season to shoot people who break a quarantine without compelling cause, so maybe we are approaching this from different perspectives. :)

This seems to be the main point a lot of people are missing and the "this is an overreaction" crowd never seems to address it. 

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3 hours ago, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

That's right everybody, people panicking about toilet paper is what makes the disease more lethal in the elderly and immuno-compromised. If only we all calmed down, they'd live!

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3 hours ago, Cornfusion said:

Blind panic caused the schools to be closed when there appears to be a zero mortality rate in the 0-29 age groups.  Here in my town, they let the kids come eat breakfast and lunch in the cafeterias, but no classes.  Does that make sense to you?

As far as 90 year old chain smoking Italians, ventilators weren't going to keep them alive forever.

Look, you be as afraid as you want to be.  Nobody is going to talk you out of it.

LOL, you're clueless...but that's ok, you're not on the front lines trying to save a few hundred thousand lives.  Stay safe, friend. 

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The mother of my children is working in an ICU of a major urban hospital with active COVID-19 patients. They are rationing PPE because of shortages. Because of that shortage, she had to consult with a patient without PPE yesterday. Today, that patient is suspected of having COVID-19. Patient wasn't tested until today because the hospital does not have enough tests.

We have not done enough to protect those on the frontline. 

The war goes on for those in harm's way. When they are sidelined or worse, you will get your wish.

For now - do your part to help those fighting the war for you.

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Yes, but there is going to be a limit to this, and I think it is 4-5 weeks more.  I think if things are not allowed to start returning to normal by May 1, then we will see significant civic disobedience.  

The Federal and state governments fucked the pooch on this and did not use the 6 weeks prior to last weekend to prepare.  So we all have to make sacrifices and give them 4-6 more weeks to get their shit together.  

There should be DESIGNATED hospitals that COVID patients or those suspected of having it are taken to.  They should NOT be going to ALL of them.  Testing should be off site and there is no fucking way it should take 4-5 days to get a damned result.  24 hours AT MOST.  

And fuck all the poltiicians playing politics during this.  Your ineptitude and the Chinese fucking government have completely fucked up a lot of our lives.  Fucking do your jobs and FIX it, or get the fuck out the way.

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There IS a point where our society would need to just let people die, but there's NO way we can managed the quarantine level to just barely stay below that and minimize the economic damage. There is a high likelihood we'd miss that target and we need to quarantine real hard and take that "risk" instead.

I agree with the point made above about civil disobedience after a period of quarantine, and I think we wouldn't last until May. Four weeks tops.

So MAYBE we can lock down 3 weeks and infection rates will be low enough we can just keep unnecessary events banned and use social distancing. Maybe at that point the health care system will be able to handle the girth?

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13 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Yes, but there is going to be a limit to this, and I think it is 4-5 weeks more.  I think if things are not allowed to start returning to normal by May 1, then we will see significant civic disobedience.  

The Federal and state governments fucked the pooch on this and did not use the 6 weeks prior to last weekend to prepare.  So we all have to make sacrifices and give them 4-6 more weeks to get their shit together.  

There should be DESIGNATED hospitals that COVID patients or those suspected of having it are taken to.  They should NOT be going to ALL of them.  Testing should be off site and there is no fucking way it should take 4-5 days to get a damned result.  24 hours AT MOST.  

And fuck all the poltiicians playing politics during this.  Your ineptitude and the Chinese fucking government have completely fucked up a lot of our lives.  Fucking do your jobs and FIX it, or get the fuck out the way.

I think that short of there being absolutely no food, we’ll never see widespread civil disobedience in this country. We’ve gotten too fat and lazy.

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

I think that short of there being absolutely no food, we’ll never see widespread civil disobedience in this country. We’ve gotten too fat and lazy.

Maybe not in the valley, but people in the big cities are beyond pissed off, especially those whose businesses have been completely shut and are facing financial ruin.

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
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24 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Maybe not in the valley, but people in the big cities are beyond pissed off, especially those whose businesses have been completely shut and are facing financial ruin.

i don't see what you're seeing. not in nyc or at least not in the areas i've been around.  they might be pissed off but they can't force people/customers to just appear. You've posted 4-5 weeks on a few threads, not hating, just not seeing the actual rationale for that.   I don't know when things will slowly start opening up again but once the cases pile up, the timeline will be pushed back. IMO it is too early to put a guess on the date things open up if we haven't even gotten anywhere near peak infections. Everything is delayed 10-14 days on that so any date predictions are just too early at the moment. 

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7 hours ago, CBHorn said:

This, confiscation of private property, seems too much to me:

Link

 

 

Wait! Come back and comment on your link.

I oppose seizure of private property but I'm curious as to how would you propose New Jersey's governor solve the problem? The hospitals have had to divert people away from their ERs as they reach capacity and the state has the second most highest deaths in the country right now.

 

Massachusetts had an order of masks arriving from overseas and the feds seized it so that state had to find more masks yet again.

 

 

 

(They haven't confiscated anything according to the article but enacted the power to do so.)

Quote

“We all certainly hope that Pat doesn’t have to use this authority. We would hope that folks will step forward and do the right thing,” Murphy said Thursday. “But if need be, we will use this authority.”

The government confiscated half a billion dollars in private property during the first world war. We interned citizens, we seized property (both intellectual and physical). There are no innocents here. What do you suggest?

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I don't really have any suggestions for the governor of New Jersey. Not having other options doesn't make confiscation better. I acknowledge they are in dilemma.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say in your last paragraph. You seem to be arguing that historical wrong doing makes modern wrong doing more palatable. But, I'm confused why you would include internment. I don't think you meant to argue that we should be doing that. That sentence seems to weaken your argument that precedent makes this confiscation order less onerous.

Did you see that the governor of New York is ordering that ventilators and other equipment be transferred from upstate New York hospitals be transferred to the city? How do you feel about that? 

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On 3/20/2020 at 1:14 PM, Cornfusion said:

My son's friend is marooned in Finland until he can put together connecting flights which are always being canceled.  He is in a little town near Helinski, population about 9,000.  They have had ten people test positive for coronavirus.  Their response:  If you are sick, don't go to work and go to a doctor to get tested.  If you get real sick, we'll put you in a hospital.  That's it. 

As of this morning, ZERO deaths in Finland due to the coronavirus. 

It isn't the Indian waving the blanket that killed all of the buffalo.  It was the herd mentality and blind panic that sent them over the cliff.

Not Finland, but their Nordic cousins know:

MW-IC289_norway_NS_20200315171301.jpg

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59 minutes ago, CBHorn said:

I don't really have any suggestions for the governor of New Jersey. Not having other options doesn't make confiscation better. I acknowledge they are in dilemma.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say in your last paragraph. You seem to be arguing that historical wrong doing makes modern wrong doing more palatable. But, I'm confused why you would include internment. I don't think you meant to argue that we should be doing that. That sentence seems to weaken your argument that precedent makes this confiscation order less onerous.

Did you see that the governor of New York is ordering that ventilators and other equipment be transferred from upstate New York hospitals be transferred to the city? How do you feel about that? 

I mentioned the historical government action as precedent not to say it is correct.

Also, internment was included because there are citizens calling for New York City to be walled off essentially. Go to TexAgs if you don't believe me. Internment /= quarantine, but how much persuasion do you think it would take for some citizens to find that palatable if it allowed their financial situation to improve?

I did not see that Cuomo made that order. Are those state owned supplies, purchased by the state? Were they purchased by a municipality? Provided by the feds? I think I would need to know more facts before commenting.

 

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On 3/20/2020 at 6:21 PM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Yes, but there is going to be a limit to this, and I think it is 4-5 weeks more.  I think if things are not allowed to start returning to normal by May 1, then we will see significant civic disobedience.  

The Federal and state governments fucked the pooch on this and did not use the 6 weeks prior to last weekend to prepare.  So we all have to make sacrifices and give them 4-6 more weeks to get their shit together.  

There should be DESIGNATED hospitals that COVID patients or those suspected of having it are taken to.  They should NOT be going to ALL of them.  Testing should be off site and there is no fucking way it should take 4-5 days to get a damned result.  24 hours AT MOST.  

And fuck all the poltiicians playing politics during this.  Your ineptitude and the Chinese fucking government have completely fucked up a lot of our lives.  Fucking do your jobs and FIX it, or get the fuck out the way.

I agree with this.

Except I think it’s less than 4-5 weeks.

 

 Supposed to be much better weather next week where I am.  It will be interesting to see if SIP holds up to Spring Fever.

 

***I didn’t see the age of these posts.  ***

 

Edited by Incredulity
Lol, I didn’t note the date
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It's the bills coming due more than anything. People who are WFH get spring fever, but people who have no money coming in will be much more desperate to get out and earn money, find a new job, etc. For all the various agencies talk about moratoriums on rent and all, there are plenty of other entities that are collecting payments as usual.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

It's the bills coming due more than anything. People who are WFH get spring fever, but people who have no money coming in will be much more desperate to get out and earn money, find a new job, etc. For all the various agencies talk about moratoriums on rent and all, there are plenty of other entities that are collecting payments as usual.

The moratoriums are just talk too. Rent was due on April 1.  So far, it will also be due on May 1 too.  I think early May is about as long as people will be able to do this.  Both spring fever and the need to make money will be overwhelming. 

We need to establish and implement a plan to pick up where we left off when this is over. No rent owed, no mortgage owed, no property tax owed, and no utilities owed for the duration of this. Mortgages can instead be extended 2 months.  Utilities and state/local tax revenues can take it on the chin. But it will allow small businesses to reopen without being overburdened with back rent which will allow their now laid off employees to get back to work when this is over. 

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On 4/4/2020 at 1:28 PM, FondrenRoad said:

The moratoriums are just talk too. Rent was due on April 1.  So far, it will also be due on May 1 too.  I think early May is about as long as people will be able to do this.  Both spring fever and the need to make money will be overwhelming. 

We need to establish and implement a plan to pick up where we left off when this is over. No rent owed, no mortgage owed, no property tax owed, and no utilities owed for the duration of this. Mortgages can instead be extended 2 months.  Utilities and state/local tax revenues can take it on the chin. But it will allow small businesses to reopen without being overburdened with back rent which will allow their now laid off employees to get back to work when this is over. 

New York State has a bill that does just that for small businesses and those who have become unemployed (though it seems like it would be much easier to just have it be blanket, but that is probably not palatable).  However, it is still in Committee.  This is an urgent issue, and I do not think this is moving fast enough for most.

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On 3/20/2020 at 1:49 PM, Anastasis said:

I don't think that people really appreciate what a completely overwhelmed health care system, in the context of a highly contagious novel respiratory infection soaking up the the acute care capacity, would look like in this country.  If the measures we are taking do not bend the curve, they are about to get a big taste of it.  

It won't be as bad as what the country is going to look like if 3/4 of all small businesses and a good chunk of the large ones go out of business.  This may sound callous but it is a cold hard truth, this country can survive having two million people die from this easier than it can survive 50 million or more people becoming unemployed from this.

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On 3/20/2020 at 1:55 PM, 4th&Five said:

Locking down this country will be much more complicated due to the 300 million guns on the street. 

And add in everyone wearing masks covering half their faces.  But look at the bright side, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed.  Instead hospitals and police departments will be overwhelmed.

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On 3/20/2020 at 1:57 PM, Anastasis said:

I think that it makes it much easier. 

I also think that we should have open season to shoot people who break a quarantine without compelling cause, so maybe we are approaching this from different perspectives. :)

Can you define "compelling cause"?  I'm betting that would be as subjective as "essential business."

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On 3/21/2020 at 9:52 AM, Helobious said:

I think that short of there being absolutely no food, we’ll never see widespread civil disobedience in this country. We’ve gotten too fat and lazy.

I know I have never been subject to anything remotely close to this in terms of restrictions of personal freedoms by various government authorities and I'm old enough to remember being pissed off at the Watergate hearings for preempting my cartoons when I was a kid.  No one knows what the actual breaking point is but this is as close as we have ever been to it since I've been alive.  

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7 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

It won't be as bad as what the country is going to look like if 3/4 of all small businesses and a good chunk of the large ones go out of business.  This may sound callous but it is a cold hard truth, this country can survive having two million people die from this easier than it can survive 50 million or more people becoming unemployed from this.

2MM would represent a greater American loss of life than in all wars combined in our nations history. You are far underestimating the impact, not only economically, but humanistically. 

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