The short and long term socioeconomic effects of Covid 19

[Parliament 14352]

GUYS, LET'S NOT DISCUSS POLITICS IN THIS THREAD.  You have an entire board to go throw poop in.  Take it over there.

Coronavirus is the biggest or second-biggest world event since Hiroshima, and we know that once it passes, things won't all be the same.  Some aspects will be permanently changed.   Like what?

Overthrow of governments.  Iran is a good example.  Despotic government lies and cheats there way through, but you can't hide the fact that my brother died.  What nations will have civil conflict.

Have we experienced peak oil consumption?  Solar and wind have been growing, and I believe overall energy usage has fallen some?  Will this be the "sear" that trips the trigger that shoots carbon energy in the head.  Will carbon-based energy usage fall hard?

Restaurants.  Eating out has been a flat business for a few years.  If an entire nation spends 2-4 weeks cooking for themselves, are they gonna ever wanna go to Flingers again?

Brick and mortar retail.  DEAD.  It was dying before this and CV is gonna kill it entirely.  Delivery and curb-side pickup will be the only thing left.

What else?

[DCA_HORN 725]

While local restaurants are going to temporarily get crushed it will come back. I do think it will be like VE day when this thing is finally over though.

[Anastasis 23473]

1 minute ago, DCA_HORN said:

I do think it will be like VE day when this thing is finally over though.

It'll be like VE day if I make it through next week without murdering my children. 

[Guest Lobo]

Dovetailing on your brick and mortar retail note, I'd say physical bank branches are dead men walking.  I watch developers put up a 50,000 foot strip center (with nearly-dead anchor tenants) with with a pad site bank and  wonder who the fuck underwrites this crap?  

We were already adopting it, but at an excruciatingly slow pace because of dug-in stakeholders looking to grift wherever/whenever they could.  But the IoT for supply chain will be widely implemented by the end of 2021.  I mean in every market vertical, from manufacturer to end-user.  Because of Covid-19, it'll go from something in Wired magazine to being a part of every American's everyday life within 24 months.  It'll be almost seamlessly integrated into your smart device.  

And I don't think people are going to say "Bless You" when someone in sneezes in public anymore. 

[Blotto 23585]

Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

[52-80 19271]

porn site revenue is gonna go through the roof

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

possibility: everyone in every developed nation will be made completely reliant on the government for income/sustenance

[F250 28830]

24 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

I see this catching on.

[Incredulity 11684]

After the  “we are here to help” banker line wears off.

 

Good luck getting a loan to operate or expand: 

hotels

restaurants

bars

 

Or any company that counts on the above for a significant portion of revenue.

[Steel Shank 9434]

So the Earth is experiencing over-population, global warming, hunger, harm to flora and fauna. What does Mother Nature do in times like these? Reduce the numbers. Trim the excess in betterment of the whole. Like a wildfire.

(Just a thought I've been having. Not sure where it goes.) 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Steel Shank

[EuroHorn 3272]

Toilet paper becomes the preferred global currency.  Wallets become larger to accommodate 

[Izhmash 563]

General health and well being improves across the board.  Consumption decreases due to a renewed appreciation of health, and money.

[SDG 3319]

I worked from home for 7 years then got called into an office last year because I lived within 70ms of a Corp office despite not working with anyone in said office.  Of course I only went in once or twice per month.  Today I received an email that my office is being repurposed until further notice.  For me;  thats the bright side of all of this.   
 

on another note I believe this is going to reverse some of our, or at least my, reliance on e-commerce.  Locally I can’t order shit through amazon right now.  

[Blotto 23585]

34 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Toilet paper becomes the preferred global currency.  Wallets become larger to accommodate 

Affix a belt clip to one of these, and you got yourself a new bidness.

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

Hopefully we get a renewed focus on mental health and counseling beyond hitting the bottle. Seems like people are losing their minds a week into this, so hopefully this expands the need for people to see mental health experts about the isolation and loneliness that we experience beyond a quarantine. 

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

No one TP's houses anymore.

In all seriousness, I agree with the above sentiments but namely health and wellness will improve.  We might end up with better preventative medicine now that we realize the health of our fellow citizen directly impacts our lives.

Restaurant business will go back to where it was, which was essentially flat with the middle tier dying off.

Brick and mortal retail will bounce back as well.  The stores aren't physically built to handle this much drive thru volume.

I'll go out on a limb and say this will force people to save more money.  They'll realize that being literally one paycheck away from a catastrophe isn't a good thing.

[Brisketexan 105465]

Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

[hornian 5230]

I really think that people are going to pull back from traveling until there’s a really effective vaccine for this. You’re going to see a LOT less air travel, especially international, over the next 12-18 months. As a result, CO2 emissions will be reduced a lot more than expected. We are going to see how that impacts climate change, realize it’s an attainable goal, and actually agree that it’s worth trying to fix. Then in 2 years everyone will be lured back in by cheap airfare and we will be right back where we were. But I can fly to Rome for $200 round trip!

[staboner 4988]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

right there with you. correct the overheated American Individual

And on the other end - no nukes. Keep those expectations low. This will definitely cause all kinds of geopolitics agitations. 

[Anastasis 23473]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

out of rep. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19229]

Pretty much week one only so there is still a lot of newness, but I've noticed people being a lot nicer to each other the few times I venture out from my hermetically sealed environment. 

Overall I find Millenials too nice to a fault and Boomers too nasty to a fault.  If the see-saw dips in favor of the Millenials going forward, I'm ok with that.  But the Gen-Z / Zoomers, whatevers... those little shits are going to be the ones that really kick a lot of ass going forward.  I see a lot of potential in them.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19171]

15 minutes ago, hornian said:

I really think that people are going to pull back from traveling until there’s a really effective vaccine for this. You’re going to see a LOT less air travel, especially international, over the next 12-18 months. As a result, CO2 emissions will be reduced a lot more than expected. We are going to see how that impacts climate change, realize it’s an attainable goal, and actually agree that it’s worth trying to fix. Then in 2 years everyone will be lured back in by cheap airfare and we will be right back where we were. But I can fly to Rome for $200 round trip!

Maybe some people, but not me.  As soon as things are a lot better, my ass is on a plane to get the fuck out for a bit.  Thinking Greek Island for a week, followed by another Greek Island, then maybe an extended shopping weekend in Paris.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19171]

I think in 4-5 weeks, if they do not let people out, we will see massive amounts of Civil Disobedience.  We are a week in, and people are struggling.  

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

I also think the meaning of the term "national security" will change.  Instead of $300M fighter planes to protect us from who knows what, we're left completely exposed to pandemics.  

[clapclapclap 9000]

3 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:

I do think it will be like VE day when this thing is finally over though.

More like VD Day

[Brisketexan 105465]

I also think the meaning of the term "national security" will change.  Instead of $300M fighter planes to protect us from who knows what, we're left completely exposed to pandemics.  

Exactly. We’re really bad at cost-effective risk prevention. We’ll spend a trillion to protect against an invasion that’s never coming...and tree fiddy on preventing disease and social collapse. We’re bad at math. We should be better at math.

[Incredulity 11684]

1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think in 4-5 weeks, if they do not let people out, we will see massive amounts of Civil Disobedience.  We are a week in, and people are struggling.  

I will take the under,  unless they start rolling out the dead and put on a huge publicity effort scare people into compliance.

 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

porn site revenue is gonna go through the roof

The pornhub usage chart is inversely proportional to S&P 500 chart.  #Stonks

We are proper fucked.  So at least there's that. 

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think in 4-5 weeks, if they do not let people out, we will see massive amounts of Civil Disobedience.  We are a week in, and people are struggling.  

In the main MEGAthread I guessed 8 weeks of fairly strict precautions like bars not being open.  8 weeks from March 14th when things got more serious with bar closures etc...

[mchookem 16415]

having an 18 yoa niece...i was thinking about some of the kids that age, not the morons in the FL spring break videos, but the ones like my niece and others that are PISSED OFF at the world, that pay attention and have all sorts of shit they want to tackle, from environment to CJ reform to wealth inequality, whatever. 

and we were just seeing, before the pandemic took over the headlines. how they still weren't showing out for Bernie for example, and knowing how cynical and jaded they are...

i was thinking well, y'all are pissed off at the world and felt like you couldn't change shit, the 'status quo' was intractable...well guess what, the whole world just shifted and nobody is in control at the moment...so NOW what are y'all going to do?

 

 

maybe nothing...but if they really wanted a chance, i think they finally have it. 

and i hope they take it. they can't do any worse. 

[Bevo Num1 1023]

I'm curious to see if some manufacturing comes back here. Not at the levels it used to be, but the global supply chain can be easily disrupted during the next pandemic and there has to be some risk mitigation around that.

 

 

[Brisketexan 105465]

I'm curious to see if some manufacturing comes back here. Not at the levels it used to be, but the global supply chain can be easily disrupted during the next pandemic and there has to be some risk mitigation around that.
 
 

I think that some of it has to...and a smart seller can sell that. “My supply won’t be interrupted - rely on me.”

[Fudge Nuggets 19229]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I think that some of it has to...and a smart seller can sell that. “My supply won’t be interrupted - rely on me.”

And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas.  Piss off, I got stock options riding on this and I'm out of here in less than two years any way.  I'll let the next guy worry about supply disruptions."

Or something like that.

[texasjacket 289]

New Home plans are adding at least one bidet per house.

[Jkwellborn 6750]

The craziness in the stores is going to become the new norm whenever there’s a mention of something. People will be scared and start panic buying at the slightest sign. People are fucking idiots.

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

I was just thinking, the traffic cops are probably having a hard time hitting their quotas, and small speed trap towns might rely on writing tickets for revenue.  Might have to watch your speed out there.  And try your best not to be black or Latino.  

[VABuckeye 2472]

On 3/20/2020 at 5:54 PM, Blotto said:

Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

Home office deduction.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13529]

The idea above about more working from home is spot on for many office workers.  Bean counters will definitely spot cost reductions to essentially freely outsource office expenses to employees.  While they already knew this last month, many leaders hate work-from-home because they are worried about productivity dropping. This situation will change that, and help to identify dead weight employees anyway.

[Your Mom 4856]

I think this lasts much longer than most people are thinking. The social distancing will flatten the curve but the moment we do away with it and open everything back up it’s going to flare up all over again maybe worse than the first time. There will be multiple waves of it and people will get it more than once.  I think we see this way of life until the vaccine comes out a year or so from now.

And when it’s all over with everyone will revert back to their original way of life. No one will save more, governments will still operate the same way they always have, priorities will be in the wrong places, and it’ll happen again a few years later.  But we’ll have more masks and ventilators on hand for it next time.  That’ll be the big crowning achievement touted by our leaders... “Look how much better prepared we are this time!  We have a billion masks!” as everything else collapses again. 
 

There will be a generation of people who are made aware of this time but don’t truly learn the lessons from it. Just like the baby boomers with the great depression. Their parents lived through it but they didn’t. Those lessons learned don’t last more than a generation. 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Your Mom

[bernorange 8367]

On 3/20/2020 at 7:36 PM, Brisketexan said:

... It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  ...

I've opined on this subject before, and I tend to view the issue from the other side of the pendulum swing.  Government (and by extension, taxpayers) should not be in the business of socializing health care costs for people who make irrational/irresponsible life choices (ex. smoking, gluttony, insufficient exercise, etc.).  There is a tremendous moral hazard at play here.  Americans do not feel the weight of responsibility for their choices that affect their health (and consequent health care costs).  That's about as much as I care to say on the subject in the Daily Texan forum.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11821]

On 3/20/2020 at 8:45 PM, clapclapclap said:

More like VD Day

Username checks out.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

I think this lasts much longer than most people are thinking. The social distancing will flatten the curve but the moment we do away with it and open everything back up it’s going to flare up all over again maybe worse than the first time. There will be multiple waves of it and people will get it more than once.  I think we see this way of life until the vaccine comes out a year or so from now.

And when it’s all over with everyone will revert back to their original way of life. No one will save more, governments will still operate the same way they always have, priorities will be in the wrong places, and it’ll happen again a few years later.  But we’ll have more masks and ventilators on hand for it next time.  That’ll be the big crowning achievement touted by our leaders... “Look how much better prepared we are this time!  We have a billion masks!” as everything else collapses again. 
 

There will be a generation of people who are made aware of this time but don’t truly learn the lessons from it. Just like the baby boomers with the great depression. Their parents lived through it but they didn’t. Those lessons learned don’t last more than a generation. 

You're right about a second burn being a serious issue.  

However, I think the lessons from this could last much longer than our usual inability to truly change from calamitous global events.  Simply because of the documentation of it.  Other than Lange's famous photo and the Ken Burns doc, there's not much that people see/read about the Great Depression.  1918 influenza has barely had anything written about it until now.  WWII finally permeates into the global psyche because of how much rich media, books, and even pop culture delved into it.  Even the most apathetic hipster has a WWII book somewhere on his shelf or has watched Band of Brothers.  I think at least 100 years of humans can look back at this through any number of lenses and think "holy shit, we can't have any of that..."  But of course there'll always be stupid people that'll have this virus unfold in their own homes and think it's all a Chinese hoax. 

[Mikey4 2476]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment system transform into something that looks like universal basic income.

[South Austin 52639]

On ‎3‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 11:45 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas. 

 

[South Austin 52639]

On ‎3‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 4:44 PM, Parliament said:

Restaurants.  Eating out has been a flat business for a few years.  If an entire nation spends 2-4 weeks cooking for themselves, are they gonna ever wanna go to Flingers again?

I do think folks will return to the restaurants, but I wonder if recovery in that business will be slower that we realize.  Once the restrictions are lifted, many people will still be (1) fearful of transmission and avoid large group settings, and/or (2) recovering financially from lost work and continue eating at home to save money.

[DaysOff 7978]

 

It's that little thing inside the Delta air lines logo.

[Snake Diggity 4628]

Assuming this gets under control in the next couple months and they have an effective vaccine/treatment within a year:

Working from home will become far more prevalent.  Already happening but will happen faster; will have dramatic impacts on traffic, home floor plans, etc.

Small preventative measures: airports taking peoples temp during security screening, etc.

Universal healthcare more likely than before.  Even without that, there will likely be laws put in place to have better plans in case of another pandemic.

Lots of dying industries will die faster: retail is fucked.  Lots of thriving companies will do even better: Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Google

This is more of a long shot, but I’m hoping all these people having their kids at home helps gain momentum to better the education system: lower student/teacher ratios, higher teacher pay, more technology, etc.

I have proven very bad at these kind of predictions in the past.

[gmr548 16617]

And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas.  Piss off, I got stock options riding on this and I'm out of here in less than two years any way.  I'll let the next guy worry about supply disruptions."
Or something like that.

This leads into what I really expect to be the lasting economic legacy - corporate governance.

There are going to need to be bailouts and the public isn't going to let the government do that without attaching real strings in relation to worker and consumer protections. Also, the boomers aren't going to be unilaterally leading the recovery with their shortsighted approach of doing everything to maximize short term gain. I think you'll see some sort of shift away from the Jack Welch approach that's dominated the past 30-40 years.

[Sgt Hulk 13872]

This is america  literally no lesson will be learned, maybe there will be a few weeks of folks treading lightly, but soon we will be back to fat ass over consumption of shit coupled with a ton of cloak room statements about socialism and capitalism.  This country struggles at learning lessons, shit we have governors saying stay the fuck home, while simultaneously watching a dude drink beer from the ass crack of some blonde he just met.  I mean fuck yeah,  but still.  The economy will flat out shit itself worse than 08 unemployment will come, big business who failed to prepare will be bailed out cranking up moral hazard, but hell if we dont bail them out the 3rd and 4th order affects of shut downs roll down hill.  

 

I do hope like fuck that manufacturing and reliance on foreign chinese bullshit slows and comes home, but unlikely.  This will be a classic case study and in political, and economic text books for years to come 

[bernorange 8367]

44 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

... the public isn't going to let the government do that ...

So we haven't crossed the Rubicon yet?  #Iwanttobelieve