Surly Thread of Business Owners/Managers, Etc. & Current Business Climate

[troph 25198]

others please chime in...

 

@orange dream  on the health front, NYC is not some outlier for any reason other than the virus went undetected in a dense space for too long of a period of time.  Many places in the US heeded that warning and shut down in advance of the avalanche that fell on NYC. Adler was getting pummeled for canceling SXSW but he looks like a genius now (look at NOLA and Mardi Gras).  Politics aside, some people have a malfunctioning brain and see the shelter in place orders and resulting low numbers as an overreaction (I don't think you are saying that), but what I see is success in properly managing this outbreak.  The math of pandemics is surprisingly simple and very revealing.  This bug is highly contagious, has a high hospitalization rate and without adequate care can spike to a 5% fatality rate based on confirmed cases (probably lower on actual infections).  It can overwhelm hospitals and even those that recover, there is evidence of long term damage to organ systems, not even just the lungs.  This lil fucker is serious.  I think we need to re-open soon but I also think we need to be very cautious about travel, large events, even crowded places.  I would especially like to see the sanitation practices and even the masks stay in place until we have a fool-proof treatment and/or a vaccine.  I'm bullish on the science though.  Record pace to sequence this booger's genetic sequence (took years for HIV which was one of the major roadblocks to treatment there) and we are breaking records on vaccine development too.  I think we will be fine.  But I think we will be very cautious in our personal lives until it's over.  Thankfully our routine lives are boring and introverted to begin with and our single biggest exposure to the masses is our children in school.  

Edited April 17, 2020 by troph

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

24 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

While this can be nitpicked and parsed to death I think there is a significant  demand "surge" that happens in the near term(first 30 days from re-open), even with phased reopening, followed by fits and starts brought on by a multitude of factors including bankruptcies, government inefficiency, and lags in supply chain restarts.

100%. There will be some clear winners/losers. Regardless of what "opens", no one is going to a movie theater or concert anytime in the next 3 months. 

[troph 25198]

5 minutes ago, pacman said:

Yeah, in reference to this funding, you certainly were off the mark but I suspected you were talking about the larger businesses. On that front, I agree.

 

In fact, the snall business funding had stipulations that the Treasury refused to play on its funding that it will dole out, which can be leveraged up to $5T.

It's an interesting concept to put more restrictions on smaller businesses than the mid-size to larger businesses.

The next level up is the Main Street program through the fed I think.  That has no forgiveness piece.  Congress made PPP a possible grant program and therein lies the complexity.  I would have done it differently  (941 average payroll, direct grant, true up to the next 941 with a special addendum tax return and under penalties of perjury with the IRS the loan is forgiven based on dollar for dollar comparisons). But I don't bemoan the small business complexity since it can be forgiven.  

the affiliation rules and the size limitations were suspended for what we call "epicenter businesses" in the restaurant space.  The government, by fiat, closed their businesses.  I don't care how big they are.  The government needs to step up.  And also fund the PPP program with additional funds too.

and the mid sized companies that are demonized employ a lot of folks and having temp layoffs is bad but having those brands go into bankruptcy is worse.  the fixed costs those companies carry as part of the size they are will crater them in 30-60 days and the ripple effect would not be kind to any of us.

The government didn't create the situation, but the government did mandate closings. any business impacted by that "taking" deserves assistance.

the more the merrier.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

4 minutes ago, troph said:

Politics aside, some people have a malfunctioning brain and see the low numbers as an overreaction (I don't think you are saying that), but what I see is success in properly managing this outbreak. 

Hindsight is always 20/20. Anyone saying the response was an overreaction is a hack or a moron. 

That being said, it's time to SLOWLY roll things back to normal in a STRATEGIC way. It will be two steps forward, one step back at first, but that's ok. At some point, the risk of doing severe damage to our economy has to be considered.

[SquishMitten 10495]

No, I didn't get in, but I did get through the application process. I'm a single member LLC and pay my personal account from the business account after expenses, so it is insanely easy to show salary.
Speaking of, if any of you self-employed folks need help creating an entity, I fully recommend Full Skope, LLC. A Surly member is a part of that and it was a smooth process.

Holla! There’s actually a couple of us here. Did you apply for your PPP through us? We’re still trucking along with all our applicants so we’ll be ready when more funds open up

[Pancho 46262]

6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Hindsight is always 20/20. Anyone saying the response was an overreaction is a hack or a moron. 

That being said, it's time to SLOWLY roll things back to normal in a STRATEGIC way. It will be two steps forward, one step back at first, but that's ok. At some point, the risk of doing severe damage to our economy has to be considered.

[pacman 7502]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

No, I didn't get in, but I did get through the application process. I'm a single member LLC and pay my personal account from the business account after expenses, so it is insanely easy to show salary.

Speaking of, if any of you self-employed folks need help creating an entity, I fully recommend Full Skope, LLC. A Surly member is a part of that and it was a smooth process.

So, just in this thread, we have access to help setup a LLC, obtain funding from a bank, and obtain advising/strategy/legal resources from Horns.

 

Good shit.

[GringoSalado 1653]

Sister is a director w/ a smallish restaurant co., about 80 locations, and they just told everybody they would not be reopening and are going chapter 13.

I was doing some work for a startup that serves the bar/rest. industry, and wow are we fucked obviously but we cut all labor (which was basically just a handful of us friends) and don't have much left in the way of expenses. Be interesting to see how many of our clients don't ever open back up or wither and die later.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a nice day outside.

 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90636]

Ughh.

 

[deadshank 24654]

29 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

We're talking about money, and something of a rubber stamp, so I have no doubt that there will be corruption. That said, my entire leadership team, and those at every org for whom I advise or sit on the board, took paycuts and have done whatever they could to retain their people, or as many as they could. I think you're more referring to what we all witnessed last time with the large companies, banks, insurance entities and so forth, and for sure I expect to see the same kind of bullshit from them. I think the stakes and interests are different at the SMB and start-up levels, where skin in the game changes everything.

This is correct.  

[orange dream 1295]

28 minutes ago, orange dream said:

 The table below is information pulled from the TX Dept of Health  COVID-19 dashboard.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

County cases deaths population   infection rate fatality rate of those infected fatality rate of population Travis                977 17      1,274,000   0.077% 1.74% 0.0013% Williamson                128 4          590,551   0.022% 3.13% 0.0007% Hays                109 1          230,191   0.047% 0.92% 0.0004% Austin Metro Area            1,214 22      2,094,742   0.058% 1.81% 0.0011%                 Dallas            1,986 43      2,636,000   0.075% 2.17% 0.0016% Tarrant                990 30      2,103,000   0.047% 3.03% 0.0014% Denton                547 14          887,207   0.062% 2.56% 0.0016% Collin                494 10      1,035,000   0.048% 2.02% 0.0010% DFW Metro Area            4,017 97      6,661,207   0.060% 2.41% 0.0015%                 Harris            4,097 58      4,713,000   0.087% 1.42% 0.0012% Ft. Bend                627 15          811,688   0.077% 2.39% 0.0018% Montgomery                331 6          607,391   0.054% 1.81% 0.0010% Brazoria                272 3          374,264   0.073% 1.10% 0.0008% Galveston                401 13          342,139   0.117% 3.24% 0.0038% Houston Metro Area            5,728 95      6,848,482   0.084% 1.66% 0.0014%                 COMBINED TOTAL          10,959 214    15,604,431   0.070% 1.95% 0.0014%

@troph thanks for your thoughts. Yes, you are correct that I am NOT saying we overreacted I am genuinely surprised at how low these rates are and just trying to make sense of how we learn from what has happened both locally and in other places as we move to "re-open". 

I look for masks and gloves to be commonplace for the foreseeable future.  We'll all look like group of Asian tourists transiting through Heathrow.  Getting back to crowded concerts, games, events, festivals will look different. Not sure how that will translate to little league, etc. Curious to hear Gov. Abbott's plan today and how that is then interpreted by county, school and city officials. 

Moving this data table to this page for those who may have missed it and wonder what you were referencing.

[G650 14437]

13 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

Sister is a director w/ a smallish restaurant co., about 80 locations, and they just told everybody they would not be reopening and are going chapter 13.

I was doing some work for a startup that serves the bar/rest. industry, and wow are we fucked obviously but we cut all labor (which was basically just a handful of us friends) and don't have much left in the way of expenses. Be interesting to see how many of our clients don't ever open back up or wither and die later.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a nice day outside.

 

 

 

 

Furk.

[Eastwood 4394]

25 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Holla! There’s actually a couple of us here. Did you apply for your PPP through us? We’re still trucking along with all our applicants so we’ll be ready when more funds open up

Unfortunately, no. Didn't know that was an option. Tried through my bank, RBFCU, but got absolutely left in the dark by them for over a week until it was too late. IBC actually ended up helping me in the end, but that was Wednesday when the funds ran out. Damn shame because I liked RBFCU, but couldn't get a single response back from them. Within 10 minutes of calling IBC, I was on the phone with VP of commercial lending. Guess I'm moving my business over.

[4th and 5 5000]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ughh.

 

 

That's sad. My girlfriend (now wife of almost 25 years) and I used to eat there all the time when I lived over by O Henry. Lavaca to Magnolia to the house was the routine.

Edited April 17, 2020 by 4th and 5

[VABuckeye 2481]

35 minutes ago, pacman said:

So, just in this thread, we have access to help setup a LLC, obtain funding from a bank, and obtain advising/strategy/legal resources from Horns.

 

Good shit.

Add getting a comp[any website to that.  blacklab

[Brew 3049]

Troph, my view is pretty crappy. Reopenings will start 5/1, maybe 5/15 at the latest but there are several states that will start reopening on that timeline for sure. In the grand scheme of things, there will be money in the system to push a recovery but the supply chain is fucked in the near term. Restaurants, hospitality, entertainment, retail rental, etc. are going to be decimated and it’s anyone’s guess as to what the fall out there is. The extension of no sports is going to continue to cause them issues and I’m not sure how many can even make it at 50% max occupancy with the doors open. Past that, it’s going to be brutal as even with states reopening the general public is going to be cautious.

A large segment of our business is with contractors. I have clients from the smallest guy around to well into the 9 figure contractors. Most of them are pretty positive on the outlook, but they think the rest of 2020 is shot. Most all national contracts have rolled everything to next spring at this point and they are expecting remodels and construction starts to be slow this summer/fall. Most view that as a positive because they don’t think they will be able to get materials anyways.

Schools being out for an extended period is going to be another problem. I have roughly 20% of our workers that are tied to school schedules. They can work remotely, so we’ll be fine. That doesn’t work for everyone though.

Personally, I think it’s going to be much worse than the 08/09 restart. No sports, no events, no school, limited occupancy, etc is going to make this remain a massive problem even when people can walk out their doors again.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Brew

[VABuckeye 2481]

52 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Holla! There’s actually a couple of us here. Did you apply for your PPP through us? We’re still trucking along with all our applicants so we’ll be ready when more funds open up

If MaclovioBrown doesn't want to open the floodgates again are you interested in referrals?  I want nothing but to help others in need.

[GringoSalado 1653]

I was just thinking more broadly about the restaurant co declaring 13 as far as liquidating their assets:  LOL!

What is the used restaurant equipment market look like for the foreseeable future? For that matter, what does the commercial/retail real estate market look like going forward?

 

 

[Incredulity 11874]

1 minute ago, GringoSalado said:

I was just thinking more broadly about the restaurant co declaring 13 as far as liquidating their assets:  LOL!

What is the used restaurant equipment market look like for the foreseeable future? For that matter, what does the commercial/retail real estate market look like going forward?

 

 

further what does obtaining credit to run a restaurant, bar, or any other hospitality and leisure focused business look like?

[VABuckeye 2481]

Like throwing darts blindfolded I would imagine?

[Apep 645]

4 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

Dang, never put together you were the same poster.  That video was insane.  

Question for you -or anyone for that matter- is it an absolute requirement for self-employed/independent contractors to include their 2019 return (line 31) when filing for the PPP?  My new bank (who I actually and enjoy and appears to have their shit together unlike most,) is telling me I have to have this in order to file.  However I won’t have some of my K1s for at least the next few weeks at the earliest so there’s likely no way for my accountant to finalize the documentation needed in order to apply for the relief. 

Is this right or am I missing something?

IIRC, the interim final guidance that Treasury released earlier this week said "Schedule C", not the whole return. Not 100% sure, but I keep hearing that plenty of banks are asking for more than what is required. If you push back, they might drop it, but banks kinda do what they want.

[GringoSalado 1653]

30 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

further what does obtaining credit to run a restaurant, bar, or any other hospitality and leisure focused business look like?

Like "LOLNO get out of my office I thought you were with Uber Eats"?

 

(looking into cheap commercial kitchen space, used equipment)

[SquishMitten 10495]

30 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Unfortunately, no. Didn't know that was an option. Tried through my bank, RBFCU, but got absolutely left in the dark by them for over a week until it was too late. IBC actually ended up helping me in the end, but that was Wednesday when the funds ran out. Damn shame because I liked RBFCU, but couldn't get a single response back from them. Within 10 minutes of calling IBC, I was on the phone with VP of commercial lending. Guess I'm moving my business over.

Well, I'd imagine they're doing the same thing. Hopefully they get you in on the next round. Sorry I didn't chime in sooner. By the time I thought about posting here, we already had more applications than I figured we'd be able to process. We'd assumed funding would've ran out in the first week. The delay by the big guys is really the only thing that kept it open as long as it was. We still didn't get to everybody, but we're workin on it!

16 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

If MaclovioBrown doesn't want to open the floodgates again are you interested in referrals?  I want nothing but to help others in need.

I don't want to take business from Maclovio, but if they're at capacity y'all can PM me and I'll send a link.

 

[VABuckeye 2481]

Thanks.  He gets the first shot but I do know that he had to shut it down at some point.  A second option for people in need would be nice.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2779]

IIRC, the interim final guidance that Treasury released earlier this week said "Schedule C", not the whole return. Not 100% sure, but I keep hearing that plenty of banks are asking for more than what is required. If you push back, they might drop it, but banks kinda do what they want.

You’re referring to the 2018 Schedule C since his 2019 haven’t been filed, correct? I’m in the same boat is why I ask.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Anyone start spending their PPP money yet? I'd like to start getting consensus/opinions on certain things.

For example: Power bill. Like most people we get billed monthly but our "usage period for PPP" started this week. Do we prorate? Just pay 2 bills to cover the 8 week period? Anyone point me to guidance on this?

[VABuckeye 2481]

We ran our first payroll with it on Wednesday.  I believe that the health insurance premium is setup to be pulled from it as well.

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

Still haven’t received my money. Actually, I might have, I just can’t tell since I’ve been opening 10-15 new bank accounts every day for the last 2 weeks. So I guess the money could be in one of them, it’s just so hard to keep track. But I’d rather have 250 bank accounts to make sure that I do this the correct way and none of the money is commingled. It’s just smart business. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Hank Scorpio

[SydneyCarton 49477]

21 hours ago, Iceman said:

My Sis-in-law owns a small business and they got approved yesterday.  They were explaining to their workers how they would be protecting their pay at the average of what they had earned the past 6 months.  One employee asked for a raise because they said it wasn't enough.

I have a few words, but in that room, I'd have no words.  In these days and times, someone's still gotta pull that shit...they should just get cunt-punted right there in front of everyone.

"Thanks for volunteering to be the first person laid off after the money runs out. That's very generous of you."

[Incredulity 11874]

23 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Still haven’t received my money. Actually, I might have, I just can’t tell since I’ve been opening 10-15 new bank accounts every day for the last 2 weeks. So I guess the money could be in one of them, it’s just so hard to keep track. But I’d rather have 250 bank accounts to make sure that I do this the correct way and none of the money is commingled. It’s just smart business. 

classy

[troph 25198]

Troph, my view is pretty crappy.  

...

 

A large segment of our business is with contractors. I have clients from the smallest guy around to well into the 9 figure contractors. Most of them are pretty positive on the outlook, but they think the rest of 2020 is shot. Most all national contracts have rolled everything to next spring at this point and they are expecting remodels and construction starts to be slow this summer/fall. Most view that as a positive because they don’t think they will be able to get materials anyways.

 

...

 

Personally, I think it’s going to be much worse than the 08/09 restart. No sports, no events, no school, limited occupancy, etc is going to make this remain a massive problem even when people can walk out their doors again.

 

 

 

We think 2020 is shot for construction too. We have one finished home on the market in and we have a couple lots cleared with permits but we are waiting at least 60 days to start. We are dropping one maybe two others. So from 5 down to 3 and everything paused for 2-3 months. Timing for completion this time next year (2021). Willing to change course in the next 60 days too.

 

On the worse than 08/09 - man I hope not but I can see it. The only thing that would save it is if the damage doesn’t spread out of those spaces where in 08/09 the crisis was financial and therefore impacted everyone. I’m hoping but not convinced it can be more contained this time around.

[G650 14437]

6 minutes ago, troph said:

 

We think 2020 is shot for construction too. We have one finished home on the market in Austin 78704 and we have two lots cleared with permits but we are waiting at least 60 days to start. We are dropping one maybe two others. So from 5 down to 3 and everything paused for 2-3 months. Timing for completion this time next year (2021). Willing to change course in the next 60 days too.

 

On the worse than 08/09 - man I hope not but I can see it. The only thing that would save it is if the damage doesn’t spread out of those spaces where in 08/09 the crisis was financial and therefore impacted everyone. I’m hoping but not convinced it can be more contained this time around.

That's interesting. I know that Ryan Homes is predicting an actual overperforming fall because of  pent up spring demand, and all of my projects are wide open.

 

To compare with 08, you have to really look at sector by sector. Residential development still hasn't recovered from 08 to this day. This event isn't good, but isn't even close to that for our industry. That was a once in hundred year event. This go round it's the restaurants, hotels and such that are getting a life altering hit. That industry will be unrecognizable after this.

[troph 25198]

That's interesting. I know that Ryan Homes is predicting an actual overperforming fall because of  pent up spring demand, and all of my projects are wide open.
 
To compare with 08, you have to really look at sector by sector. Residential development still hasn't recovered from 08 to this day. This event isn't good, but isn't even close to that for our industry. That was a once in hundred year event. This go round it's the restaurants, hotels and such that are getting a life altering hit. That industry will be unrecognizable after this.

Residential barely saw a drop in our “location, location, location” of development. A lot of folks think the core neighborhoods in town won’t see a blip. We’ll see I guess.

[orange dream 1295]

I think the financial sector will take the hit in 6-9 months when a significant number of customers default on loans, mortgages,etc.  Unless they do basically what they've been doing with O&G assets for the last 3 years or so and just push those non-performing assets down the road in hopes that things get better.  That strategy is going to kill banks heavy on O&G in 3, 2, 1...

[G650 14437]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

Residential barely saw a drop in our “location, location, location” of development. A lot of folks think the core neighborhoods in town won’t see a blip. We’ll see I guess.

I mean, I'm not staking my life to any prediction in these times. This is a pretty big unknown. I just see a lot of pent up demand still, we couldn't deliver lots fast enough here (and are completely out of land in general), were looking at probably 1,000 units between single family and condo this year along with our usual infrastructure work.

Edited April 17, 2020 by G650

[Brew 3049]

I do very little residential contractor work outside of the guys doing utility construction, it’s too unstable and they come and go too often. I think house demand will still be there. I’m looking more at commercial/industrial.

As far as comparisons to 08/09, it will definitely be a bigger problem for specific industries than others. However, that problem in those industries will dwarf some of the problems in 08/09 I believe. Banks are in a much more liquid state this time, so I don’t see it being anywhere near as bad on that side. Restaurants, hospitality, entertainment, travel, retail, etc are going to get destroyed. That will bleed over into commercial real estate and development. Nonprofits and education aren’t going to be far behind. 

Something like 10% of TN’s workforce is in the hospitality industry. Construction/Manufacturing are another 15%. What does that look like for the next 6-9 months? What does the governmental sector look like for those that are heavily sales tax dependent?

[G650 14437]

4 minutes ago, Brew said:

I’m looking more at commercial/industrial.

Commercial is going to take an ass whipping.

4 minutes ago, Brew said:

However, that problem in those industries will dwarf some of the problems in 08/09 I believe.

I mean, it could, but I think you are really underestimating how bad it was for residential site development. The banks were a bit player in 08 compared to us. The recovered with a bailout help fairly quickly. 12 years later our business still hasn't fully recovered.

[Brew 3049]

13 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean, it could, but I think you are really underestimating how bad it was for residential site development. The banks were a bit player in 08 compared to us. The recovered with a bailout help fairly quickly. 12 years later our business still hasn't fully recovered.

10+ years later, I’m sure I am in some ways. It impacted everyone with reductions in some way with some definitely impacted more than others. The difference is this turned the faucet off in a number of industries with high volume employment and that faucet may not turn back on for some for a while. The government money is helping bridge some of the gap, but hotels/airlines/travel/retail in general are going to be down for a while. Restaurants will open their doors and people will eat, but the others are going to be off for months. I’ll go back in a restaurant long before I’m getting on a plane or sleeping in a hotel or attending an event. 

[Apep 645]

2 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

You’re referring to the 2018 Schedule C since his 2019 haven’t been filed, correct? I’m in the same boat is why I ask.

They'll accept a dummy 2019 Schedule C. I can't recall if a 2018 would work.

[G650 14437]

3 minutes ago, Brew said:

10+ years later, I’m sure I am in some ways. It impacted everyone with reductions in some way with some definitely impacted more than others. The difference is this turned the faucet off in a number of industries with high volume employment and that faucet may not turn back on for some for a while. The government money is helping bridge some of the gap, but hotels/airlines/travel/retail in general are going to be down for a while. Restaurants will open their doors and people will eat, but the others are going to be off for months. I’ll go back in a restaurant long before I’m getting on a plane or sleeping in a hotel or attending an event. 

I'm with you on that. I guess I'm looking more at the restaurants having a complete model shift. I think hotels will fare better than expected. Airlines will be a sea change like the eateries most likely, saw an article today that said 747's will never fly again, and I buy that.

[pacman 7502]

5 hours ago, GringoSalado said:

Sister is a director w/ a smallish restaurant co., about 80 locations, and they just told everybody they would not be reopening and are going chapter 13.

I was doing some work for a startup that serves the bar/rest. industry, and wow are we fucked obviously but we cut all labor (which was basically just a handful of us friends) and don't have much left in the way of expenses. Be interesting to see how many of our clients don't ever open back up or wither and die later.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a nice day outside.

 

 

 

 

Well, Taco Cabana got $10 million this round so we can always replace these smallish food places with TC's.

And Winter Park’s Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc. — the parent company of Ruth’s Chris Steak House that made $42 million in profits last year and spent $41 million buying back stock and paying dividends to shareholders — revealed Monday that it has received $20 million through two small business loans.

[VABuckeye 2481]

This is why we can’t have nice things. From a poster on another forum. 
 

“No way I can be at the same employment level but most of my couple hundred thousand is going to go right where it is supposed to go and can even use it to close out a loan we had for building upgrades which is a nice bonus 

We will be paying my family as employees to make up the gap.“

The 1% on the leftovers isnt really a big deal. I will eat the couple grand.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

This is why we can’t have nice things. From a poster on another forum. 
 

“No way I can be at the same employment level but most of my couple hundred thousand is going to go right where it is supposed to go and can even use it to close out a loan we had for building upgrades which is a nice bonus 

We will be paying my family as employees to make up the gap.“

The 1% on the leftovers isnt really a big deal. I will eat the couple grand.

If this is a PPP loan, he's not getting forgiveness. And if he tries to and gets audited, he's fucked.

[Brew 3049]

Word out of contacts this afternoon is to expect additional EIDL funding and $250B more in PPP funding to potentially pass the Senate Monday. The House is a different story, but Monday should start the process.

[VABuckeye 2481]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

If this is a PPP loan, he's not getting forgiveness. And if he tries to and gets audited, he's fucked.

His reply to me when I called him out on it. 
 

“I could just fire 50 people instead 

I have been floating them something for an entire month we have been closed 

The amount of money I have paid in state unemployment and taxes over the last decades is obscene 

I want it back. I want my dollars to work for me finally. 

Dont feel even 1 ounce bad about it. Society is still way ahead of me on those dollars. 

Call the local SS and report me. I am a CPA. I am gaming the fuck out of this.”

[troph 25198]

10+ years later, I’m sure I am in some ways. It impacted everyone with reductions in some way with some definitely impacted more than others. The difference is this turned the faucet off in a number of industries with high volume employment and that faucet may not turn back on for some for a while. The government money is helping bridge some of the gap, but hotels/airlines/travel/retail in general are going to be down for a while. Restaurants will open their doors and people will eat, but the others are going to be off for months. I’ll go back in a restaurant long before I’m getting on a plane or sleeping in a hotel or attending an event. 

I agree re air travel and hotels, events for sure. So it’s a question of how long and what does that do to the rest of the economy. The tripwire effect is when it gets super serious. We’ve got some bank exposure but not like 08/09, and we think commercial real estate is gonna suck. I know this sounds crazy but if we can stay somewhat contained I think we can have a modest recovery that flattens out to a no growth or slight negative. I think we are fine in what ends as a normal recession. If this triggers a domino effect and banks aren’t fine, and commercial real estate trips into residential and the mortgage industry locks up (signs of it now) and banks get in trouble and on and on then we are looking at a lot worse. My hope is 3 months of free fall (in month 2 now) followed by a recovery to a shallow recession with good news on the vaccine and coming out of this in 12-15 months for fall 2021 going well. That’s my hope anyway.

[troph 25198]

Word out of contacts this afternoon is to expect additional EIDL funding and $250B more in PPP funding to potentially pass the Senate Monday. The House is a different story, but Monday should start the process.

I’m sort of taking today off and part of me is like - please no. I don’t want to do that again.

[SydneyCarton 49477]

9 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

His reply to me when I called him out on it. 
 

“I could just fire 50 people instead 

I have been floating them something for an entire month we have been closed 

The amount of money I have paid in state unemployment and taxes over the last decades is obscene 

I want it back. I want my dollars to work for me finally. 

Dont feel even 1 ounce bad about it. Society is still way ahead of me on those dollars. 

Call the local SS and report me. I am a CPA. I am gaming the fuck out of this.”

That guy can get fucked. 

[Brew 3049]

3 minutes ago, troph said:

I’m sort of taking today off and part of me is like - please no. I don’t want to do that again.

Senate level negotiations appear done. It may not be another full support pass like before, but it appears done. House is apparently a little different story and there is work to do.

[Chewbacca 7829]

Denver's residential RE market has been white hot for years, similar to Austin.  But even in places like that, you're going to have to see a slowdown, if not a pullback.  20 million people have filed for unemployment in the past 3-4 weeks.  That's well over 10% of the national workforce.  And those claims aren't over, not by a longshot.  

 

Losing that much of your workforce has to affect every industry.  Some will do better than others, but everyone is going to feel it.