Trump Easter Sunday total infections poll

[horn4life 3755]

Now let's be very, very clear here.  Since we do not have widespread testing you need to use the number of positives from ACTUAL testing.  Which will be MUCH smaller than the actual number.  If you want to for "fun" you can also simply post your predicted number of dead we can celebrate with Trump as he opens up for an Easter Sunday mass infection party.

Edited March 25, 2020 by horn4life

[Rougarou 594]

Maybe I missed it, but from what I thought I heard, it sounded like he was spouting and going rogue from his script with a pandering and aspirational and best-case scenario roadmap in a vague way, not saying that the churches will be opened no matter what the landscape looks like, right? I mean, isn't that what all sales people do? Lie about the roadmap and give best case scenarios that are wrong by like 2X to customers to make them feel better?

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rougarou

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

[Captainant 27456]

We may be lucky just to have a million tests by easter. I'd bet our infections are over a million, but our confirmed cases will lag significantly

[TommyGufano 6021]

Where would one vote if they think it's between 800-899.999K?

Edited March 25, 2020 by TommyGufano

[Nivek 16859]

Prey it away.

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

10 minutes ago, Captainant said:

We may be lucky just to have a million tests by easter. I'd bet our infections are over a million, but our confirmed cases will lag significantly

Are you calling Mike Pence a liar?

[Captainant 27456]

Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

Are you calling Mike Pence a liar?

Well I for one am thankful for the 4 million tests we had a week and a half ago

[Francisco 2.0 32336]

Trump's Plan:

Only olds go to Easter, and they are going to sacrifice theirselves anyway to keep the economy running.

Winning.

 

 

[DixonHur 11213]

10 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now.

That we know of...we've only tested ~300 people per million.  

For comparison, the average EU country's testing rate is between 6 & 9 times that...depending if you include Iceland.

That's really sad that the wealthiest country in the history of the world can't test it's people more efficiently.

 

[bad_teammate 13132]

Imagine watching Donald Trump ramble on about Easter and, in the depths of your soul, be moved to tears by the power of his words and leadership. Because there are tens of millions of Americans for whom this is their mental reality.

fucking WILD

Putting myself in that mindspace is like taking acid.

Edited March 25, 2020 by bad_teammate

[workswithseed 2036]

8 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Prey it away.

You eat the infected? Jeffrey is smiling up at you.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

Maybe I missed it, but from what I thought I heard, it sounded like he was spouting and going rogue from his script with a pandering and aspirational and best-case scenario roadmap in a vague way, not saying that the churches will be opened no matter what the landscape looks like, right? I mean, isn't that what all sales people do? Lie about the roadmap and give best case scenarios that are wrong by like 2X to customers to make them feel better?

No. That's what con men do. A sales professional wouldn't have a job for long if he tried that shit.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

51 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

You eat the infected? Jeffrey is smiling up at you.

Dahmer or Epstein? There's a difference.

I went with the 600K because in some areas the testing is still based on travel and exposure to a positive case despite there being community spread positive cases. If you asked me how many I think there will be in reality regardless of testing, I would guess close to 900K to a million at least by that time if not more based on all the domestic travel that has continued.

[Rougarou 594]

2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Imagine watching Donald Trump ramble on about Easter and, in the depths of your soul, be moved to tears by the power of his words and leadership. Because there are tens of millions of Americans for whom this is their mental reality.

fucking WILD

Putting myself in that mindspace is like taking acid.

This is so accurate and funny

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

2 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

 

I think I see a flaw in your reasoning.

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

26 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

I think I see a flaw in your reasoning.

Well, if Mike Pence wasn't a lying piece of shit then we'd already have millions of tests available. I'm betting that, despite the lies and the gaslighting and denial about the slow federal response, we'll manage to test enough people by Easter to cross the 1,000,000 threshold. If we don't then it will be an indictment of our response to the need for testing. 

As long as the only people in Ohio who can get tested are health care workers and patients already in the hospital suffering symptoms, I'll bet our percentage of tests that come back positive are going to be pretty high. 

[berlinerbaer 670]

I"m going to get pedantic here, but there are too many poll choices. Furthermore, they assume a linear increase in positive cases, when cases are currently exponentially increasing, as they will for the foreseeable future. The options should be organized in a logarithmic manner, like

< 100k (log < 5)

100k - 300k (log = 5 - 5.5)

300k - 1M (log = 5.5 - 6)

etc

I guessed 500-600k, only because we will be test-limited.

[lemonlime 5503]

4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

Yup. Went with this, given the numbers now and doubling.  I assume the numbers won't truly double every three days as we probably started flattening the curve with all the lockdowns., the effects of which we won't see for a couple weeks anyway.  But, the true numbers now have to be more than 55,000 given that we're really just starting to test.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Testing limitations notwithstanding, I am bumping this to add this mornings numbers:

86,012 Confirmed Cases

1301 Deaths

(From the JHU Coronavirus Map site)

 

[wildcat09 29244]

"It's just such a special day, almost the most special day. It's not quite the day I beat Hillary, but it's close! Jesus, great guy, he was strongly amazing, but I don't think he could've beat Hillary and the media like I did."

 

[ChiTownDoc 21101]

On 3/25/2020 at 8:43 AM, Nivek said:

Prey it away.

Hide yo kids...

On 3/25/2020 at 8:53 AM, workswithseed said:

You eat the infected? Jeffrey is smiling up at you.

No, he just knows what many a good catholic priest enjoys...

[fattyflattie 4636]

53 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Testing limitations notwithstanding, I am bumping this to add this mornings numbers:

86,012 Confirmed Cases

1301 Deaths

(From the JHU Coronavirus Map site)

 

400k and I hope I’m very wrong but 2250. 

[Mdhorn 5911]

Well, DOTARD could always reopen the Easter Egg Roll to his MAGAtes. Wouldn't be fair to the kids though.  

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

[horn4life 3755]

Forgot to vote in my own poll!  I went over a million as I think the Trump Administration may have tested (with results) 5 million people by that time.   I know it's stupid to make a prediction based on a moderate to reasonable level of performance by the Trump administration.  But since they said we have 2 million tests ready to go three weeks ago this Monday...

But reality is we are bragging on 100K in tests a day, but I am praying that we can ramp up testing. Testing is the ONLY way we are ever going to get the economy back.

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

We were at 55,000 cases on Wednesday and crossed 100,000 cases on Friday so we're ahead of schedule for a three day doubling period. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

23 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Forgot to vote in my own poll!  I went over a million as I think the Trump Administration may have tested (with results) 5 million people by that time.   I know it's stupid to make a prediction based on a moderate to reasonable level of performance by the Trump administration.  But since they said we have 2 million tests ready to go three weeks ago this Monday...

But reality is we are bragging on 100K in tests a day, but I am praying that we can ramp up testing. Testing is the ONLY way we are ever going to get the economy back.

We also need to test asymptomatic people.  I don't see our keystone cops being able to get anywhere close to the testing volume required to get that done even over a 3 year period. 

Not to mention all the people that had moderate symptoms that didn't require hospitalization. They should get to know if they already had it.  That may even be the most important thing because that is the data we need to learn about immunity and/or reinfection possibilities. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[horn4life 3755]

Just now, FondrenRoad said:

We also need to test asymptomatic people.  I don't see our keystone cops being able to get anywhere close to the testing volume required to get that done even over a 3 year period. 

Not to mention all the people that had moderate symptoms that didn't require hospitalization. They should get to know if they already had it.

Exactly!  Testing is the only way to get the empirical evidence to where we "the herd" will feel safe going out and spending and moving on.  There are shit tons of asymptomatic people accidentally spreading the virus unknowingly.  What we have done, at least in Austin, is "quarantine" the unknowing transmitters via the isolation orders.   Shit tons of testing, testing at walmart, costco, walgreens, CVS,   I would actually use high school parking lots for a lot of this testing. They are empty and would provide local well knows places for Residents to be tested.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

35 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Exactly!  Testing is the only way to get the empirical evidence to where we "the herd" will feel safe going out and spending and moving on.  There are shit tons of asymptomatic people accidentally spreading the virus unknowingly.  What we have done, at least in Austin, is "quarantine" the unknowing transmitters via the isolation orders.   Shit tons of testing, testing at walmart, costco, walgreens, CVS,   I would actually use high school parking lots for a lot of this testing. They are empty and would provide local well knows places for Residents to be tested.

Yeah, I'm past ready to know.  My family and I are in a hotzone and have been moderately sick over the last two weeks.  I was sicker, but extreme fatigue, light shortness of breath, dry cough, and gastro problems were my worst symptoms, only lasted a few days, and I powered through them anyway.  I expect it was the flu or something else, but I've found myself hoping it was Covid.

We need that level of testing, but I don't see how it is going to be possible within the next 6 months.  Healthcare professionals are stretched thin working on severe cases, and the testing kits aren't there yet anyway.

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

From 55,000 cases to over 121,000 cases in three days. 

[Bookman 4610]

5 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

From 55,000 cases to over 121,000 cases in three days. 

Kind of makes you wonder what the numbers would be if we had enough tests for everyone.

[safe sex 11678]

Yeah, I'm past ready to know.  My family and I are in a hotzone and have been moderately sick over the last two weeks.  I was sicker, but extreme fatigue, light shortness of breath, dry cough, and gastro problems were my worst symptoms, only lasted a few days, and I powered through them anyway.  I expect it was the flu or something else, but I've found myself hoping it was Covid.
We need that level of testing, but I don't see how it is going to be possible within the next 6 months.  Healthcare professionals are stretched thin working on severe cases, and the testing kits aren't there yet anyway.

That is pretty much every common symptom of Covid. Did you ever take your temperature?

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

I’m with Fondren. Was in New Orleans a week after Fat Tuesday for work and we did spend time in the quarter. Came back and a couple days later was having chest tightness and a cough that came and went but no other symptoms. The tightness went away after a week.  Not sure if I was just having really bad allergies or some other type of sickness or if I got a mild case of the 19. I have been hoping it was the last one now that it has passed, but not sure we are ever going to get caught up enough to start thinking about a test to show if you already had it. But I think that’s going to be important if we want to inspire confidence in people to start life back up again unless a strong treatment regimen emerges or a vaccine. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 hour ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

 ...a test to show if you already had it. But I think that’s going to be important if we want to inspire confidence in people to start life back up again .....

That will be great test to have and  the President and his pals are figuring out how much to charge everyone for it.

US cases 124,686

US deaths 2,191

[horn4life 3755]

What might, just might be helpful, is at some point in a land far far away, tactually testing folks like Fondren and Namealreadyinuse. SO maybe they and "the herd" knows if they have had but no longer have covid 19.

It might, just might be something important for people to know, it might even be of use for the government to know, that we may have a lot more recovered and HOEPFULLY somewhat immune.

But hey.... if you aren't reading Surly right and don't anchor a Fox News show, the is no way to get this information to the President of the United states....

[horn4life 3755]

ALSO - don't forget the Trump distraction of the day in an attempt to blunt the reality that we now have 125,000 infected is... Quarantine New York....

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 hours ago, trauma babe said:

On 3/28/2020 at 12:37 PM, FondrenRoad said:

Yeah, I'm past ready to know.  My family and I are in a hotzone and have been moderately sick over the last two weeks.  I was sicker, but extreme fatigue, light shortness of breath, dry cough, and gastro problems were my worst symptoms, only lasted a few days, and I powered through them anyway.  I expect it was the flu or something else, but I've found myself hoping it was Covid.
We need that level of testing, but I don't see how it is going to be possible within the next 6 months.  Healthcare professionals are stretched thin working on severe cases, and the testing kits aren't there yet anyway.

That is pretty much every common symptom of Covid. Did you ever take your temperature?

Never took my temperature, but don't think I had a fever. I almost never get a fever though. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

6 hours ago, horn4life said:

ALSO - don't forget the Trump distraction of the day in an attempt to blunt the reality that we now have 125,000 infected is... Quarantine New York....

In six hours, the numbers have climbed to 136,880 cases and 2,409 deaths. I think the President needs to quit. If he wants his own tv show, he can broadcast from Florida.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

JHU reporting 159,184 Americans confirmed and 2880 fatalities. That seems a little slower rise? That would be great.

[LABEVO 928]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21061]

4 hours ago, LABEVO said:

 

I'd bet that from here on out, you'll hear trump throwing the 2 million deaths number out there and claiming that purely because of himself and his stellar leadership, "only" 200K died.  His base and ill informed independents will lap it up. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I'd bet that from here on out, you'll hear trump throwing the 2 million deaths number out there and claiming that purely because of himself and his stellar leadership, "only" 200K died.  His base and ill informed independents will lap it up. 

Parscales from the Trump Team will push that narrative as well. The videos (from hospitals) of how it isn't as bad as Democratic leaders say to illustrate that Trump's leadership is keeping people safe and the Democrats are pushing a higher number narrative. The facebook pressure is already intense. Since I don't have social media accounts, I've got people texting me facebook articles constantly the last week and I finally had to put a stop to it because fact checking was taking up all my time and I have work to do.

All of the guidelines that the health experts promoted that were pushed back on from the get go will now be used to pummel the revised narrative that we've been watching out for you all along. It's probably all that Doctor Fauci and Doctor Birx could do: play the long game and try and convince Trump et al to do as much as possible in order to save as many lives as they could, but damn, if he ever wrote a tell all book  of his experiences of working under the Presidents for the last several decades, I'd be first in line to buy it.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Some numbers the President will omit from the daily rally:

(As of 11:00 CST)

US Confirmed Cases: 165,874

Us Fatalities: 3178

States with 100+ deaths:

New York (1,342)

Washington (220)

New Jersey (198)

Louisiana (185)

Michigan (185)

California (149)

Georgia (102)

 

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

The President took a grimmer tone yesterday during the briefing and for the viewers that were in denial regarding the seriousness of the virus, perhaps they will follow the guidelines. He allowed the doctors to have more screen time and that was IMO very good. The more plain they speak, the better things may go.

Some totals this morning from JHU:

US Confirmed Cases: 189,633

US Fatalities: 4081

*States with 100+ deaths:

New York (1714)

New Jersey (267)

Michigan (259)

Louisiana (239)

Washington (225)

California (182)

Georgia (125)

Illinois (100)

 

 

 

*Do you think this stat is helpful for monitoring hotspots? I was including it because I have family and friends in various places including Florida which is rapidly increasing in cases. Sadly, a number of states will join the list above by this weekend. Many of them have very little testing apparently, but the rates are increasing. I feel helpless watching from afar.

 

[Gap03 3285]

17 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The President took a grimmer tone yesterday during the briefing and for the viewers that were in denial regarding the seriousness of the virus, perhaps they will follow the guidelines. He allowed the doctors to have more screen time and that was IMO very good. The more plain they speak, the better things may go.

Some totals this morning from JHU:

US Confirmed Cases: 189,633

US Fatalities: 4081

*States with 100+ deaths:

New York (1714)

New Jersey (267)

Michigan (259)

Louisiana (239)

Washington (225)

California (182)

Georgia (125)

Illinois (100)

 

 

 

*Do you think this stat is helpful for monitoring hotspots? I was including it because I have family and friends in various places including Florida which is rapidly increasing in cases. Sadly, a number of states will join the list above by this weekend. Many of them have very little testing apparently, but the rates are increasing. I feel helpless watching from afar.

 

With the delays in test results and the super-high bars set in some states (like Texas) to ever get tested, the numbers of deaths (especially trends over a period of multiple days) may be the best indicator of coming hot spots.  The problem is that deaths lag new infections by 2+ weeks, so you won't know whether social distancing efforts are having a real impact for some time, so it's possible that some hot spots may cool off if severe measures are taken before they flare up.  

I've been saying for some time that the next hot spots will probably be New Orleans, Detroit, Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago, Indianapolis and Atlanta.  Boston should be added to that list.  I'd consider Newark + CT to be part of the NY hot spot.  With the patchwork of policies here in Texas, I could see Houston and DFW flaring up at some point, but there haven't been flashing red signs here in Texas just yet.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

9 hours ago, Gap03 said:

I've been saying for some time that the next hot spots will probably be New Orleans, Detroit, Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago, Indianapolis and Atlanta.  Boston should be added to that list.  I'd consider Newark + CT to be part of the NY hot spot.  With the patchwork of policies here in Texas, I could see Houston and DFW flaring up at some point, but there haven't been flashing red signs here in Texas just yet.

I think you are correct. CT has unfortunately been rising quickly. They only had 1000 ventilators for the entire state but the feds sent them 50 more. That doesn't seem like a lot to me. California and Washington placing restrictions statewide and having more sprawl than NY seems to be helping their citizens stay in a little better shape. Their numbers are going up a little more slowly it looks like.

Here are tonight's numbers of cases. Very sad, very somber, and I hope people are staying home.

US Confirmed Cases: 213,372

US Fatalities: 4757

States with 100+ deaths:

New York (1941)

New Jersey (355)

Michigan (355)

Louisiana (273)

Washington (234)

California (199)

Illinois (141)

Georgia (139)

Massachusetts (122)

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Second day of April. The frontline health care workers are trying so hard right now. Each day I see some states seeming to slow down the rate a little. I know that the people who contracted the virus some time back are who is represented here, but behind every number there is a person and a team of people who matter. Keep them and their families in your thoughts.

US Confirmed Cases: 243,453

US Fatalities: 5926

States with 100+ deaths:

New York (2373)

New Jersey (537)

Michigan (417)

Louisiana (310)

Washington (271)

California (238)

Florida (164)

Illinois (163)

Georgia (163)

Massachusetts (154)

Connecticut (112)

 

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Testing is growing so here is more data from JHU.Texas joined the list I'm afraid to say. Considering that testing here has been abysmal, that number may never be accurate with respect to cases and COD.

US Confirmed Cases: 276,955

US Fatalities: 7087

States with 100+ deaths:

New York (2,935)

New Jersey (646)

Michigan (479)

Louisiana (370)

Washington (291)

California (269)

Illinois (210)

Massachusetts (192)

Georgia (184)

Florida (170)

Connecticut (131)

Colorado (111)

Texas (103)

Indiana (102)

Pennsylvania (102)

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

20 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

US Confirmed Cases: 276,955