College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Bartles 769]

That South Carolina guy sounds like a shot at the Pac-12 or at least the Bay Area health director who pretty much already said no sports before Thanksgiving.

Long way to go. The good news is college sports leadership sounds very aligned to making football happen even if it has to be delayed. The bad news is everyone is counting on both the COVID curve and testing/treatment to drastically improve in the near future and that may be too much to ask based on results as of now.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

5 minutes ago, Bartles said:

The bad news is everyone is counting on both the COVID curve and testing/treatment to drastically improve in the near future and that may be too much to ask based on results as of now.

The testing and treatment will improve drastically as we learn more, a cure/vaccine is likely 18 months +/- away. A factor that COULD blunt a second wave would be the natural resistance of those who have already been infected. If the estimates that the infection rate is 40 to 55 times higher turn out to be correct, and that most are asymptomatic, it would also change the focus of what we're doing and how we're doing it.

[kopp0e 1135]

19 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Whatever happens, chin pubes will tweet that it's because tu is afraid to play

After the pandemic ends, it could be a change in name (butt-chin pubs) from gaining excess weight.!?

[ousux 5597]

You don't. FBS teams have well over 100 guys on the squad when you factor in walk ons, scout team, etc. Not to mention dozens of coaches, trainers, managers, other support staff. Death would be pretty likely in the event of a program-wide outbreak. That is why I am pretty certain we're not having a fall season. No athletic department is going to take that risk, nor should they.

Just have a lawyer draw up an additional waiver page to go along with all the other things NCAA athletes have to agree to, add a clause that allows players to keep their scholly if they choose to self quarantine instead of participating, (very few will choose this option) problem solved.

Deaths already occur in college sports, (guys with undiagnosed heart conditions and such) collapsing on practice fields, tracks, gyms...yet we still have football and all the less dangerous sports. The chance of a young healthy althlete contracting Covid 19 and never recovering are extemely low I'd imagine...and we're now discovering the actual overall death rate is much lower when thousands of asymptomatic (confirmed positive or otherwise) carriers are taken into account.

[F250 28780]

I am currently watching defensive line drills from the Senior Bowl earlier this year. I am so desperate for college sports that I am enjoying football practice reruns.

I can't even imagine what the Fall would be like without college football.

[Veerbone 116]

2 hours ago, ousux said:

Just have a lawyer draw up an additional waiver page to go along with all the other things NCAA athletes have to agree to, add a clause that allows players to keep their scholly if they choose to self quarantine instead of participating, (very few will choose this option) problem solved.

Deaths already occur in college sports, (guys with undiagnosed heart conditions and such) collapsing on practice fields, tracks, gyms...yet we still have football and all the less dangerous sports. The chance of a young healthy althlete contracting Covid 19 and never recovering are extemely low I'd imagine...and we're now discovering the actual overall death rate is much lower when thousands of asymptomatic (confirmed positive or otherwise) carriers are taken into account.

Recent data shows 22 deaths from COVID in the age group 15-24 in the US.  42M from that age range in the US.

Staffers would be the focus of concern.

The effects of CTE, steroid & painkiller abuse outdistance anything that COVID presents as risk to the athletes.

 

[ousux 5597]

Recent data shows 22 deaths from COVID in the age group 15-24 in the US.  42M from that age range in the US.
Staffers would be the focus of concern.
The effects of CTE, steroid & painkiller abuse outdistance anything that COVID presents as risk to the athletes.
 

And i would guess most if not all those 22 had other health issues that contributed to their deaths...health issues highly unlikely to be found in college age athletes. Staffers would be at more risk, yes..but we're talking about guys that range from late 20's to mid 50's..not the most vulnerable age groups, and other than GA's and analysts..all are well compensated and would know the risks beforehand.

Yeah, all this sounds like me selfishly wanting CFB back asap, (and i do dammit) but i don't think anyone wants that more than the players and coaches right now. Just trying to be rational, seems covid is here to stay, the sooner we figure out how to keep living life the better..

[Bartles 769]

Just getting COVID at all can really screw up their careers though...respiratory damage that can be permanent

[Veerbone 116]

19 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Just getting COVID at all can really screw up their careers though...respiratory damage that can be permanent

Which is still a deck chair off the Queen Mary compared to the odds & severity CTE, steroids or painkillers will effect their lives negatively.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3251]

27 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Just getting COVID at all can really screw up their careers though...respiratory damage that can be permanent

So does CTE...?

Edited April 25, 2020 by The_Great_Hornsby

[4th&Five 41558]

1 hour ago, Veerbone said:

Which is still a deck chair off the Queen Mary compared to the odds & severity CTE, steroids or painkillers will effect their lives negatively.  

None of those are highly contagious though. 

[Veerbone 116]

9 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

None of those are highly contagious though. 

I’ve been told that ignorance is both genetic & airborne.

 

Scary stuff.

 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3251]

30 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

None of those are highly contagious though. 

The arguments for fans and staffs is a valid one. But for elite athletes? The kill rate on this thing is astronomically low for the healthy 20 year old age group. Thats what he was referring to. 

[gmr548 16580]

10 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The arguments for fans and staffs is a valid one. But for elite athletes? The kill rate on this thing is astronomically low for the healthy 20 year old age group. Thats what he was referring to. 

Sure, but they're not the only part of the equation. Also, let's not pretend all 300LB OL/DL are models of health.

Beyond that, it isn't about how you or I or anyone on here would handle the situation. You've got college presidents openly saying the doubt football is going to happen in the fall. ADs and conference commissioners stating unequivocally that football's a non-starter in the event campuses aren't open. Public health officials saying large gatherings are probably off the table until sometime in 2021.

Read the writing on the wall. There isn't going to be a fall season. Maybe they start it as normal because they can't get around the $$$, but as soon there's an outbreak in the fall the season is over faster than Lincoln Riley finishes his first course of dicks at dinner. Best hope is a full season moved to spring.

 

[Js1 85409]

The universities ain’t gonna want the liability. The pro leagues won’t even risk it. 

[gmr548 16580]

On 4/23/2020 at 6:34 PM, MirrOlure said:

Eventually, won’t we run out of fat diabetics with hypertension and heart disease?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html

This is America. No.

[gmr548 16580]

On 4/24/2020 at 1:40 PM, Js1 said:

Literally the worst possible option. Bc the SEC states will reopen and play and declare itself national champs again 

 

Well SEC fans are pretty low risk.

 

[Mdhorn 5970]

I'm curious how SEC would do if they didn't have ticket sales for their programs and coaching salaries in the fall.  Thought LSU was pretty close to broke.  Plus, how would television rights go if there isn't a season?   And outside of sports, what else is the SEC good for (other than Florida or Vandy)?  Not that OSU, KU and a few others in the Big 12 wouldn't struggle but the whole virus scenario seems like it opens a huge chasm between the have's and have nots.    

[Eskimohorn 5635]

The testing and treatment will improve drastically as we learn more, a cure/vaccine is likely 18 months +/- away. A factor that COULD blunt a second wave would be the natural resistance of those who have already been infected. If the estimates that the infection rate is 40 to 55 times higher turn out to be correct, and that most are asymptomatic, it would also change the focus of what we're doing and how we're doing it.

After massive, worse case scenario, in NYC, Only 21 % tested for antibodies in a random study. You need 70% for herd immunity for public health purposes to begin to help. So about 30-50k more deaths to get there just in NYC.

Also, the antibodies testing are proving to be unreliable. And that may be good news because otherwise there are lots people getting “reinfected”.

[USNALonghorn 5078]

6 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The arguments for fans and staffs is a valid one. But for elite athletes? The kill rate on this thing is astronomically low for the healthy 20 year old age group. Thats what he was referring to. 

Those “supplements” probably help with immunity, as well.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

9 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

After massive, worse case scenario, in NYC, Only 21 % tested for antibodies in a random study. You need 70% for herd immunity for public health purposes to begin to help. So about 30-50k more deaths to get there just in NYC.

Also, the antibodies testing are proving to be unreliable. And that may be good news because otherwise there are lots people getting “reinfected”.

I think worst case in NYC would have been 3 to 4 times as bad. As you note in your second paragraph, testing is unreliable and uneven at this point. This is a fast moving target and it's physically impossible to test every American every 3 days for a month. That would tell us where we are. One random study makes for a data point, but basing anything off that is a bit of a leap. The next 3 to 6 weeks will tell us what we need to know.

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

8 hours ago, USNALonghorn said:

Those “supplements” probably help with immunity, as well.

The “supplements” actually suppress the immune system, which u unfortunately need to fight the virus.  

[stork642 4498]

21 hours ago, ousux said:

Just have a lawyer draw up an additional waiver page to go along with all the other things NCAA athletes have to agree to, add a clause that allows players to keep their scholly if they choose to self quarantine instead of participating, (very few will choose this option) problem solved.

Deaths already occur in college sports, (guys with undiagnosed heart conditions and such) collapsing on practice fields, tracks, gyms...yet we still have football and all the less dangerous sports. The chance of a young healthy althlete contracting Covid 19 and never recovering are extemely low I'd imagine...and we're now discovering the actual overall death rate is much lower when thousands of asymptomatic (confirmed positive or otherwise) carriers are taken into account.

Exactly.  Theses guys are running full speed into each other so there is an inherent risk associated with being on the field. Have them sign a waiver and take all necessary precautions.  Any player could contract Covid19 just going to the store.  It’s not like the only risk zone is team activities.  What if 90% of the team has already had it by fall?  At what point do we start to handle this differently?

[stork642 4498]

15 hours ago, gmr548 said:

This is America. No.

Kim Jong Un says yes. 

[gmr548 16580]

Exactly.  Theses guys are running full speed into each other so there is an inherent risk associated with being on the field. Have them sign a waiver and take all necessary precautions.  Any player could contract Covid19 just going to the store.  It’s not like the only risk zone is team activities.  What if 90% of the team has already had it by fall?  At what point do we start to handle this differently?

At what point do internet posters who want to see college football stop making gross oversimplifications to support what they want to believe?

There are a lot more stakeholders than just players, and decision makers are telegraphing the fact that they're not willing to stomach the additional risk. I want to see college football as bad as anyone but just dismissing that and saying it'll all be fine is wishful thinking.

[stork642 4498]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

At what point do internet posters who want to see college football stop making gross oversimplifications to support what they want to believe?

There are a lot more stakeholders than just players, and decision makers are telegraphing the fact that they're not willing to stomach the additional risk. I want to see college football as bad as anyone but just dismissing that and saying it'll all be fine is wishful thinking.

 

 

I’m not dismissing anything.  I just think there may be different ways to go about managing this crisis.  You think shutting everything down is the only way.  That may be correct but I believe there are other alternatives to look at before we give up the season.  There will be a ton of new information/perspective on this by June/July so let’s have a little more patience to see how this will develop.  You act as though you know where this is headed and everyone else is a dumbass.  We will see.  

[BevoSwag 272]

13 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

I'm curious how SEC would do if they didn't have ticket sales for their programs and coaching salaries in the fall.  Thought LSU was pretty close to broke.  Plus, how would television rights go if there isn't a season?   And outside of sports, what else is the SEC good for (other than Florida or Vandy)?  Not that OSU, KU and a few others in the Big 12 wouldn't struggle but the whole virus scenario seems like it opens a huge chasm between the have's and have nots.    

LSU was near bankruptcy BEFORE the Covid19 crisis.  I can't imagine how bad the finances look today given oil being so low and their state Treasury being depleted.

[BevoSwag 272]

23 hours ago, F250 said:

I am currently watching defensive line drills from the Senior Bowl earlier this year. I am so desperate for college sports that I am enjoying football practice reruns.

I can't even imagine what the Fall would be like without college football.

Or going into the Alumni Center before, during and after the games

[Js1 85409]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

At what point do internet posters who want to see college football stop making gross oversimplifications to support what they want to believe?

There are a lot more stakeholders than just players, and decision makers are telegraphing the fact that they're not willing to stomach the additional risk. I want to see college football as bad as anyone but just dismissing that and saying it'll all be fine is wishful thinking.

 

 

Totally agree. There’s a lot of wishful hand waving of liability, risk and “they’re young they’ll be fine.”  It’s a business and businesses don’t inherently want the risk. And universities will get crucified if they bring student athletes on campus for football while regular students have to stay home. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Js1

[gmr548 16580]

3 hours ago, stork642 said:

I’m not dismissing anything.  I just think there may be different ways to go about managing this crisis.  You think shutting everything down is the only way.  That may be correct but I believe there are other alternatives to look at before we give up the season.  There will be a ton of new information/perspective on this by June/July so let’s have a little more patience to see how this will develop.  You act as though you know where this is headed and everyone else is a dumbass.  We will see.  

The definition of dismiss: "Treat as unworthy of serious consideration." You concurred "Exactly" to a post suggesting the fix that would allow a fall season is... A waiver. That's it. "Problem solved." That would fix any issues related to the possibility of a player, staff member, etc. getting sick and dying. Not to mention the much higher-likelihood of people getting sick not dying, but spreading it through the program and to other teams, having to miss significant time, having to be hospitalized, etc. "Exactly." An extra waiver page takes care of that. That's saying it's not a serious problem.

You're basically taking the position that Mike Gundy took. He got told to shut up and apologize by administration. He did so. That should probably clue you in on where this is headed.

I'm not biting on an argument about what I think or don't think. I didn't say anything about what I think should be done. I am talking about what will be done. We are not having a normal fall football season. I do in fact think that if one looks at the current landscape of things, and one sees a normal football season kicking off in September and proceeding without issue... One is a dumbass.

Bookmark this to come back to and rub my face in it in September if you want. Even better, in January after the completion of an issue-free 2020 season. I've even said I could see them trying to start the season in the fall. The money at stake is truly life or death for a lot of programs and athletic departments. But if they do that it will be abbreviated in some major way - whether by shortening the season proactively, an abrupt stoppage due to outbreak, or both. Trust me, I badly want to be wrong. I want to see revenge in Baton Rouge and pregame an ass beating of OU with wax beers and corn dogs as much as anyone on this site. That's just a pipe dream at this point.

2 hours ago, BevoSwag said:

Or going into the Alumni Center before, during and after the games

COVID would wreck the alumni center/west side crowd. These are the kinds of things I'm talking about.

Edited April 26, 2020 by gmr548

[4th&Five 41558]

4 hours ago, stork642 said:

I’m not dismissing anything.  I just think there may be different ways to go about managing this crisis.  You think shutting everything down is the only way.  That may be correct but I believe there are other alternatives to look at before we give up the season.  There will be a ton of new information/perspective on this by June/July so let’s have a little more patience to see how this will develop.  You act as though you know where this is headed and everyone else is a dumbass.  We will see.  

There is another way to go about this. We could test at massive numbers and track and trace like Germany and SK. They’ve been much more successful than the US in fighting this. We don’t seem to want to do that though. 

[Mdhorn 5970]

4 hours ago, stork642 said:

I’m not dismissing anything.  I just think there may be different ways to go about managing this crisis.  You think shutting everything down is the only way.  That may be correct but I believe there are other alternatives to look at before we give up the season.  There will be a ton of new information/perspective on this by June/July so let’s have a little more patience to see how this will develop.  You act as though you know where this is headed and everyone else is a dumbass.  We will see.  

We actually have plenty of time, since most are at home--there's no rushing to anything.  Everything is speculation.  I just know that a highly litigious society isn't going to rush to push players on a field, except maybe the SEC.  And if they do, then it will be because they really don't care about their players, players families, friends, students, faculty, alumni....

[stork642 4498]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

The definition of dismiss: "Treat as unworthy of serious consideration." You concurred "Exactly" to a post suggesting the fix that would allow a fall season is... A waiver. That's it. "Problem solved." That would fix any issues related to the possibility of a player, staff member, etc. getting sick and dying. Not to mention the much higher-likelihood of people getting sick not dying, but spreading it through the program and to other teams, having to miss significant time, having to be hospitalized, etc. "Exactly." An extra waiver page takes care of that. That's saying it's not a serious problem.

You're basically taking the position that Mike Gundy took. He got told to shut up and apologize by administration. He did so. That should probably clue you in on where this is headed.

I'm not biting on an argument about what I think or don't think. I didn't say anything about what I think should be done. I am talking about what will be done. We are not having a normal fall football season. I do in fact think that if one looks at the current landscape of things, and one sees a normal football season kicking off in September and proceeding without issue... One is a dumbass.

Bookmark this to come back to and rub my face in it in September if you want. Even better, in January after the completion of an issue-free 2020 season. I've even said I could see them trying to start the season in the fall. The money at stake is truly life or death for a lot of programs and athletic departments. But if they do that it will be abbreviated in some major way - whether by shortening the season proactively, an abrupt stoppage due to outbreak, or both. Trust me, I badly want to be wrong. I want to see revenge in Baton Rouge and pregame an ass beating of OU with wax beers and corn dogs as much as anyone on this site. That's just a pipe dream at this point.

COVID would wreck the alumni center/west side crowd. These are the kinds of things I'm talking about.

I said in the first post “ Have them sign a waiver and take all necessary precautions.”   I never said a waiver would SOLVE everything.  I do think that would alleviate some of the liability issues.  That with a combination is testing and aggressively tracking/managing any positives, etc.  I’m not saying there is an easy answer but there may be a viable solution if a number of precautions are implemented.  I don’t agree to just throw up my hands and say nothing can be done so might as well cancel the season.  I think some tough decisions will need to be made and if that means no fans, no at risk fans, limited number of fans, and/or no tailgating, etc so be it.  There is certainly an argument to be had that nothing keeps me in my house all weekend like a full slate of sports to watch.  What are the benefits of a shitload of sports fans staying home every weekend?  

[927 E. 41st 1124]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

There is another way to go about this. We could test at massive numbers and track and trace like Germany and SK. They’ve been much more successful than the US in fighting this. We don’t seem to want to do that though. 

It's not a matter of desire, it's not logistically possible for us to do the same things as a nation the size of Texas with 83 million people. Or a nation of 50 million crammed into even less space. We might be able to pull it off in areas with high population densities, but the travel restrictions would have to be pretty draconian by our standards.

[nnm 36438]

On 4/23/2020 at 9:14 AM, Underdog said:

UConn FB is just a distraction until women's basketball starts. 

You know who went to a BCS game in 2011? UConn. You know who has never been to a BCS or NY6 game?

[Underdog 28711]

Ya got me there...  touché. 

[nnm 36438]

44 minutes ago, Underdog said:

Ya got me there...  touché. 

No, I agree with you that UConn fball is hot garbage. But that hot garbage has still been to more BCS/NY6 games than aggy. 

[sdm 890]

On 4/25/2020 at 2:04 PM, F250 said:

I can't even imagine what the Fall would be like without college football.

If you're telling me you can't imagine more booze and more porn, I don't believe you.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

9 hours ago, stork642 said:

Exactly.  Theses guys are running full speed into each other so there is an inherent risk associated with being on the field. Have them sign a waiver and take all necessary precautions.  Any player could contract Covid19 just going to the store.  It’s not like the only risk zone is team activities.  What if 90% of the team has already had it by fall?  At what point do we start to handle this differently?

LOL - if 90% of any group has had it then it's all systems go.  Still need to test/trace.  The problem is even in the hardest hit parts of the country we are looking at 30% at best.  And the problem with football is how many people are needed.  All the back ups.  All the staffers...the fat ass coaches.  Also as someone mentioned above - 300lb lineman are actually at greater risk than the average person that's not overweight.  Then add in the dozens of people needed to air the game on TV.  

I think hoops is more realistic because you need way fewer people to play and air games on TV. 

Hope to hell I'm wrong but football this fall seems like a real longshot. 

[stork642 4498]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

LOL - if 90% of any group has had it then it's all systems go.  Still need to test/trace.  The problem is even in the hardest hit parts of the country we are looking at 30% at best.  And the problem with football is how many people are needed.  All the back ups.  All the staffers...the fat ass coaches.  Also as someone mentioned above - 300lb lineman are actually at greater risk than the average person that's not overweight.  Then add in the dozens of people needed to air the game on TV.  

I think hoops is more realistic because you need way fewer people to play and air games on TV. 

Hope to hell I'm wrong but football this fall seems like a real longshot. 

Yeah it’s looking more and more of a long shot everyday but I’m an optimist and I will look for any silver lining.  I love college football in an irrational-I need help kinda way.  I hope it can happen in a safe way.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3251]

6 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

There is another way to go about this. We could test at massive numbers and track and trace like Germany and SK. They’ve been much more successful than the US in fighting this. We don’t seem to want to do that though. 

That pesky Constitution and the whole freedom thing always getting in the way

[Js1 85409]

lol ok

[Eskimohorn 5635]

SIAP, but the SEC, Baylor, Michigan St, Ohio St and Penn St will totally be playing football this Fall whether they play school or not.

[Don Johnson 4754]

On 4/25/2020 at 7:12 PM, Js1 said:

The universities ain’t gonna want the liability. The pro leagues won’t even risk it. 

I see it the exact opposite.  The NFL is going to make a business decision.  The NFL Players Union is also going to make a business decision.  I have little doubt the league will want to play.  The Union may think about it, but at the end of the day, the players aren't going to want to give up a year of their careers for something that essentially doesn't affect anyone their age.

Universities on the other hand.....AD's will want to play, coaches will want to play, most players will want to play, but Presidents and Chancellors will be much more risk adverse.

[Don Johnson 4754]

46 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

SIAP, but the SEC, Baylor, Michigan St, Ohio St and Penn St will totally be playing football this Fall whether they play school or not.

Sounds like we'll have some good games.

[LebongJames 1812]

First step is the university’s bringing students back in the fall. If that doesn’t happen football won’t happen. College football may happen but I’d give it less than a 50% chance.

 

[Vertigo 20290]

14 hours ago, nnm said:

No, I agree with you that UConn fball is hot garbage. But that hot garbage has still been to more BCS/NY6 games than aggy. 

What an amazing stat. Is this something that should go on a billboard in BCS?

[kopp0e 1135]

On 4/25/2020 at 7:12 PM, Js1 said:

The universities ain’t gonna want the liability. The pro leagues won’t even risk it. 

Quote

Adrian Wojnarowski

 

@wojespn

 

NBA has received significant pushback from teams about idea of re-opening practice facilities in selected states and municipalities, team officials tell ESPN. Competive balance hasn't been issue -- player/staff safety has. Teams are still awaiting a more detailed NBA plan today.

1:55 PM · Apr 27, 2020·Twitter Web App

 

The plan of hosting multiple teams in 1 location isn't even thought of well by pro players, let alone college sports going back to "normal"...

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Brett mcmurphy tweeting tonight Oregon and East Carolina are anticipating students on campus this fall

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Brett mcmurphy tweeting tonight Oregon and East Carolina are anticipating students on campus this fall