College Football in 2020 in danger?

[kopp0e 1135]

19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Brett mcmurphy tweeting tonight Oregon and East Carolina are anticipating students on campus this fall

The latest rumor from Brett:

 

[Stunns38 3559]

Which the NBA should permanently adopt. Why try to compete with the NFL and college football for the first 3 months of your season? Start with kick ass opening games on Christmas Day and run through August.

Now you’re on to something !

[clapclapclap 9000]

13 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

I see it the exact opposite.  The NFL is going to make a business decision.  The NFL Players Union is also going to make a business decision.  I have little doubt the league will want to play.  The Union may think about it, but at the end of the day, the players aren't going to want to give up a year of their careers for something that essentially doesn't affect anyone their age.

Universities on the other hand.....AD's will want to play, coaches will want to play, most players will want to play, but Presidents and Chancellors will be much more risk adverse.

I wonder if CCP-19 considers PED abuse an underlying condition.... 

[TexasEx 1667]

ESPN article discussing CFB in 2020.  Herman talking about virtual coaching up of the players. The article discusses the possibility of a short postponement with a modified/reduced fall schedule (question mark on fans);  postponement to Spring 2021; or cancellation, which would kill a lot of athletic departments.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

46 minutes ago, TexasEx said:

ESPN article discussing CFB in 2020.  Herman talking about virtual coaching up of the players. The article discusses the possibility of a short postponement with a modified/reduced fall schedule (question mark on fans);  postponement to Spring 2021; or cancellation, which would kill a lot of athletic departments.  

by  the appropriate decision time we have will have a much clearer  idea of immunity, IFR, case load #s, vaccine, treatment. this shit evolves daily and we're a totally different nation than we were 4/1. Im still thinking itll be a delayed start, maybe late October-March season, and move signing days back, no spring ball, and move up fall camp a week or 2 to make up for spring ball loss.

 

having a college football season leading right up to march madness would be awesome. although tailgating might be in limbo if theyre trying to keep human interaction as safe and sober as possible if we're going to walk on thin ice  

Edited April 30, 2020 by MNLonghornFUKM

[Neonmoon 38130]

They thinking of canceling just the early non-conference games for everyone?

[4th&Five 41590]

 

[Bartles 769]

17 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

although tailgating might be in limbo if theyre trying to keep human interaction as safe and sober as possible if we're going to walk on thin ice  

Fans will tailgate even if campus is being actively bombed by Russian jets

Seriously though, any outdoor sport that comes back with no fans is going to have to take tailgating into account. Not to mention fans hanging out as close to the stadium as possible, watching/listening to the action and cheering as loud as possible so players maybe hear them.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

SIAP

 

 

[4th&Five 41590]

well, yeah.  it's april.  we'll see in july.

[Bartles 769]

Also today, Iowa said they plan to open campus June 1 and that includes allowing college athletes to practice and work out.

And Bowlsby was on Sirius XM where he seemed to indicate that he thinks football will start some time during the fall, but he is worried that all sports will have to stop-and-start based on outbreaks. He is concerned that CFP and March Madness will get canceled. I'm paraphrasing the DMN summary of his interview, I assume he was qualifying all that as hypothetical

[Red Five 40895]

13 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

well, yeah.  it's april.  we'll see in july.

Yeah, and we all "hope" to do that. 

[utee94 15863]

50 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

well, yeah.  it's april.  we'll see in july.

Well I'll certainly agree that things will look very, very different in July.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

49 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Also today, Iowa said they plan to open campus June 1 and that includes allowing college athletes to practice and work out.

And Bowlsby was on Sirius XM where he seemed to indicate that he thinks football will start some time during the fall, but he is worried that all sports will have to stop-and-start based on outbreaks. He is concerned that CFP and March Madness will get canceled. I'm paraphrasing the DMN summary of his interview, I assume he was qualifying all that as hypothetical

yea those 3 games that constitute a "playoffs" will be fine. 

[UDontKnow 10450]

21 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

They thinking of canceling just the early non-conference games for everyone?

if that happens, aggy will have a losing season.

[Michael Knight 12995]

Wait til some colleges open up and others don't. Little schools taking big brothers air time on the networks, its gonna be a fucking shit show.

[nnm 36654]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

yea those 3 games that constitute a "playoffs" will be fine. 

4-team invitational. Maybe this will shake that up. 

[utee94 15863]

44 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Wait til some colleges open up and others don't. Little schools taking big brothers air time on the networks, its gonna be a fucking shit show.

True but it's more than that.

A lot of parents aren't going to be willing to pay for online school.  They'll have no desire to pay the exorbitant costs of college education, for a Zoom and Skype education.  Some will just defer and keep their kids out for another semester.

Others will send their kids to the schools that DO reopen for on-campus classes.  So we're not just talking about little schools taking air time, we're talking about some schools taking away students-- taking away tuition dollars--  from others.  This is the reason we're watching the dominoes fall right now.  Baylor announces a couple of days ago, and with zero surprise, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and TCU all fall in line immediately.

 

[Pancho 45009]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

True but it's more than that.

A lot of parents aren't going to be willing to pay for online school.  They'll have no desire to pay the exorbitant costs of college education, for a Zoom and Skype education.  Some will just defer and keep their kids out for another semester.

Others will send their kids to the schools that DO reopen for on-campus classes.  So we're not just talking about little schools taking air time, we're talking about some schools taking away students-- taking away tuition dollars--  from others.  This is the reason we're watching the dominoes fall right now.  Baylor announces a couple of days ago, and with zero surprise, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and TCU all fall in line immediately.

 

The trends I’m seeing so far is students are starting to wonder if they should take a gap year, and that number is increasing.

Also, my specific campus (part of a large community college in Houston) has seen enrollment for our honors program jump 95% for fall.  The statistics tell us these students who are opting to stay local are the top students who were going to attend major D1 universities in Texas in the fall.  

I don’t know that I agree with the last part.  You can’t just transfer right now for fall, unless you’re wiling to sit out the fall and hope for an in-person Spring start.   And if that’s the case, why transfer to begin with when your original university might be in-person in Spring 2021?  

[utee94 15863]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The trends I’m seeing so far is students are starting to wonder if they should take a gap year, and that number is increasing.

Also, my specific campus (part of a large community college in Houston) has seen enrollment for our honors program jump 95% for fall.  The statistics tell us these students who are opting to stay local are the top students who were going to attend major D1 universities in Texas in the fall.  

I don’t know that I agree with the last part.  You can’t just transfer right now for fall, unless you’re wiling to sit out the fall and hope for an in-person Spring start.   And if that’s the case, why transfer to begin with when your original university might be in-person in Spring 2021?  

You don't anticipate universities becoming highly flexible with admissions, gaps, and readmissions?  I certainly do. Especially if they want the tuition dollars.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

1 hour ago, UDontKnow said:

if that happens, aggy will have a losing season.

You dumbass, that's impossible in the SEC West. 

[Pancho 45009]

3 hours ago, utee94 said:

You don't anticipate universities becoming highly flexible with admissions, gaps, and readmissions?  I certainly do. Especially if they want the tuition dollars.

I’m not sure why @Onboard 2.0hated my post when there was noting negative in there.  Like what the fuck?

Anywho, to @utee94no I don’t see them being flexible as they would then have to explain why they let a transfer student into their university in July/August for the Fall semester but did not let in other transfer students before the original transfer deadline.  Not only that, it takes months for acceptance decisions even for transfers.  Colleges aren’t going to rush that just to get “bodies” on campus for tuition—well maybe A&M.  That would be really fishy and raise a lot of eyebrows.  On my end, I haven’t seen anyone discuss opening admissions and becoming flexible in admissions and admission standards just because of COVID.  They can’t just accept students willy nilly for the “tuition dollars.”  That would ruin the rep of the university and has the potential—albeit through a lot of layers—fuck up them up as it relates to accreditation. 

 

EDIT:  Forgot to add—no one at the FBS level is anticipating losing tens of thousands of students.  I think that’s where people are getting confused.  Now some FCS D2, D3, and NAIA schools?  They might be in some trouble. 

Money wise, colleges will be okay this next academic year.  Where we will feel the pain of losing $$$ is 2021-2022.

[utee94 15863]

9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m not sure why @Onboard 2.0hated my post when there was noting negative in there.  Like what the fuck?

Anywho, to @utee94no I don’t see them being flexible as they would then have to explain why they let a transfer student into their university in July/August for the Fall semester but did not let in other transfer students before the original transfer deadline.  Not only that, it takes months for acceptance decisions even for transfers.  Colleges aren’t going to rush that just to get “bodies” on campus for tuition—well maybe A&M.  That would be really fishy and raise a lot of eyebrows.  On my end, I haven’t seen anyone discuss opening admissions and becoming flexible in admissions and admission standards just because of COVID.  They can’t just accept students willy nilly for the “tuition dollars.”  That would ruin the rep of the university and has the potential—albeit through a lot of layers—fuck up them up as it relates to accreditation. 

 

EDIT:  Forgot to add—no one at the FBS level is anticipating losing tens of thousands of students.  I think that’s where people are getting confused.  Now some FCS D2, D3, and NAIA schools?  They might be in some trouble. 

Money wise, colleges will be okay this next academic year.  Where we will feel the pain of losing $$$ is 2021-2022.

I think colleges will be willing to do unusual things in unusual times.  I also think you're underestimating the upcoming hit to the top line this coming Fall-- but that's only for universities that choose not to return to campus.

And, as we're seeing, the dominoes are already falling in that direction, which simply underscores my point.

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by utee94

[Pancho 45009]

33 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think colleges will be willing to do unusual things in unusual times.  I also think you're underestimating the upcoming hit to the top line this coming Fall-- but that's only for universities that choose not to return to campus.

And, as we're seeing, the dominoes are already falling in that direction, which simply underscores my point.

 

Well the problem is no dominoes have actually fallen just yet seeing as how most have announced they’ll be on campus starting in the fall.  I’m not sure what dominoes you’re talking about really.

Colleges are announcing they’ll be on campus—that’s fine.  I’m willing to bet they have a “go online” contingency plan in place just in case shit gets bad as we start the month of August or covid comes back in the middle of the semester—that’s also fine.  Most (emphasis on most) P5 schools will be fine academically if they go online for the fall.  Students know what’s coming and they can prepare.  As I said earlier, this isn’t going to be a loss of tens of thousands of students.  As I also said earlier, colleges will feel the hit for 2021-2022.  Also, if colleges were to do some unusual things for the fall, we would be hearing about them now.  You don’t do something unusual and out of the ordinary at the last minute in higher education.  And I’ve neither heard nor seen anything unusual other than the talk of students taking a gap year increasing.  

EDIT:  As I said in my earlier post—you can just do shit in higher ed to get “bodies” on campus for tuition dollars as you’ll risk ruining your accreditation.  No university—except for A&M—would want to do that.  

Now athletics?  That’s a different story because every athletic department in the country needs football to play for other sports to survive.  That’s different when compared to academics.  

[Newy25 7703]

The idea that most Universities are not massive money making machines cloaked in academic altruism made me laugh. 
 

[South Austin 52617]

14 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

SIAP

 

 

The eternal Spring optimists.

[Randolph Duke 4034]

7 hours ago, Newy25 said:

The idea that most Universities are not massive money making machines cloaked in academic altruism made me laugh. 
 

Publicly financed university and colleges are money consuming, not money making. UT Austin spends roughly $53,000 per student each year. About $43,000 of that is provided by public subsidies. That is about a $2B shortfall each year that is made up by subsidies. 

How exactly does an entity make massive amounts of money running multi-million dollar (if not multi-billion dollar) deficits? 

There may be an argument the institutions are too highly subsidized, but when they lose massive amounts of money each year and require massive subsidies, they aren’t “massive money making machines.” If we doubled the number of public universities, we would have less money, not more money. “Massive money making machines” create wealth. Public universities are not “massive money making machines.”

[Pancho 45009]

1 hour ago, Randolph Duke said:

Publicly financed university and colleges are money consuming, not money making. UT Austin spends roughly $53,000 per student each year. About $43,000 of that is provided by public subsidies. That is about a $2B shortfall each year that is made up by subsidies. 

How exactly does an entity make massive amounts of money running multi-million dollar (if not multi-billion dollar) deficits? 

There may be an argument the institutions are too highly subsidized, but when they lose massive amounts of money each year and require massive subsidies, they aren’t “massive money making machines.” If we doubled the number of public universities, we would have less money, not more money. “Massive money making machines” create wealth. Public universities are not “massive money making machines.”

This, this is 100% correct. 

The only “massive money making” universities are those that are diploma mills like Univ. of PHoenix and southern New Hampshire and even they aren’t making a shit ton of money.  Places like Harvard make money because, well it’s fucking Harvard.  

If colleges and universities were massive money makers and only in it to make money, then I’d be getting paid a lot more than I am. 

I think some posters are confusing college academics versus college athletics.  Now college athletics (really only D1)?  Those are massive money makers and in it for the money.  It’s weird how that’s the side of the institutional house that might suffer immediately because of this.  Academics will suffer a year from now. 

[David Dennison 18947]

Any thoughts on what happens when players and students start testing positive?

[UDontKnow 10450]

25 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Any thoughts on what happens when players and students start testing positive?

You got the thoughts piece covered, so all we need now are prayers.

[Bartles 769]

My guess: they'll have procedures in place, most likely 1-2 sporadic positives will just be isolated while everything continues. But two or more teammates or participants from the same game will probably shut the whole team(s) down for two weeks. That could be as inconvenient as the annual hurricane postponements or it could bring the whole sport to a stop. Not having ticketed fans makes re-scheduling easier FWIW.

The biggest hurdle, as with everything in the US, is lack of consistent and reliable testing. Everyone is just hoping that can be improved dramatically by September, but it's hard to see right now.

[BrazilHorn 6634]

17 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

SIAP

 

 

Going for those automatic "W's" from forfeits. I see you Aggy

[Pancho 45009]

27 minutes ago, Bartles said:

My guess: they'll have procedures in place, most likely 1-2 sporadic positives will just be isolated while everything continues. But two or more teammates or participants from the same game will probably shut the whole team(s) down for two weeks. That could be as inconvenient as the annual hurricane postponements or it could bring the whole sport to a stop. Not having ticketed fans makes re-scheduling easier FWIW.

The biggest hurdle, as with everything in the US, is lack of consistent and reliable testing. Everyone is just hoping that can be improved dramatically by September, but it's hard to see right now.

 

Depends on if they use the same rules as a classroom.  We've been told if we go back into the classroom and 1 person in that class tests positive, everyone in the class has to automatically do a 14-day quarantine.  I couldn't imagine 1 teammate testing positive and everyone else going on as normal. 

[Pimphand 5906]

Fuck all these pussies.... 

This virus is not nearly fatal enough

[wood 11268]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Any thoughts on what happens when players and students start testing positive?

This is the question I never hear any answers to, and don't hear many people asking in the first place. In F1, for example, there are plans in the works to hold an event in Austria with no fans. They want to do two races at the site in 5-6 days, and then do the same at some other European sites in order to get the race numbers up to satisfy the TV contracts. It will still be a fairly massive undertaking to do behind-closed-doors races under these conditions, because they will still need 1500-2000 people on site to run a race weekend. They're coming up with logistical plans trying to make it work, but I haven't heard anyone address what happens to the show once someone tests positive in a team, the race officials, the track marshals, the media, the medical staff, the caterers, etc.

Edited May 1, 2020 by wood

[Bartles 769]

31 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Depends on if they use the same rules as a classroom.  We've been told if we go back into the classroom and 1 person in that class tests positive, everyone in the class has to automatically do a 14-day quarantine.  I couldn't imagine 1 teammate testing positive and everyone else going on as normal. 

This is where frequent testing is so important. The teammates - if they continue to test negative - can be safely released much sooner. Maybe the original guy was false positive, or it was dead RNA, or simply a very mild form of the virus. Still risky, but welcome to 2020 sports.

But if it's like the Jazz-Thunder game where people on both sides popped up as positive, there will be no choice but to shut it down. We'll have a good example soon with Korean baseball. They have procedures in place to just stop everything for a couple weeks, though I'm not sure what the trigger point will be.

[The Earl of Texas 3161]

If all the dudes who ever beat the shit out of a woman or caught got with felonious amounts of drugs or propagated double murders in a Miami night club or stabbed two dudes in a nightclub in Atlanta or tortured and murdered hosts of dogs in a felony sporting scheme or drunk drove and killed a pedestrian in Miami could be totally forgiven and forgotten in the name of all the money football makes their white, errr, beneficiaries... certainly a fatal pandemic won’t stop football.

[Blotto 23579]

2 hours ago, Bartles said:

My guess: they'll have procedures in place, most likely 1-2 sporadic positives will just be isolated while everything continues. But two or more teammates or participants from the same game will probably shut the whole team(s) down for two weeks. That could be as inconvenient as the annual hurricane postponements or it could bring the whole sport to a stop. Not having ticketed fans makes re-scheduling easier FWIW.

The biggest hurdle, as with everything in the US, is lack of consistent and reliable testing. Everyone is just hoping that can be improved dramatically by September, but it's hard to see right now.

The season wouldnt even last two weeks with that approach. Good luck juggling 130 teams and schedules constantly changing etc... Not saying your criteria are unreasonable, just that I cant see any way that would work. You would also inevitably end up with teams that play different amounts of games due to cancellations and inability to reschedule. Shit A&M would purposefully dodge bama and LSU with the sickness. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21922]

Covi

6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

The season wouldnt even last two weeks with that approach. Good luck juggling 130 teams and schedules constantly changing etc... Not saying your criteria are unreasonable, just that I cant see any way that would work. You would also inevitably end up with teams that play different amounts of games due to cancellations and inability to reschedule. Shit A&M would purposefully dodge bama and LSU with the sickness. 

Heat cramp flopping to rest the defense would evolve into virus flopping to avoid the tough opponents

[The_Great_Hornsby 3283]

8 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Any thoughts on what happens when players and students start testing positive?

There is a 99.9% chance a healthy 20 year old will live, so they shouldnt be too worried

[4th&Five 41590]

Again, it’s not just about living. We can’t send people out there who will be laid up in bed for 2 weeks or hospitalized. This is also the second day in a row in Dallas that someone died in their 20’s. 
 

How many tests will it take for 130 teams to be able to test players and coaches enough? A lot more than we currently have. 

[Bartles 769]

I agree with y'all. It' s just that we may be in about the same spot, testing-wise and treatment-wise, in March 2021 as we are in September 2020. That's why I can see them giving it a go, more or less on time. By then we'll know how things went with foreign sports and even some of our own like MLB and MLS.

Definitely hard to visualize right now when most of the country is still locked down, barely any hotels in use, flights, etc. And the aforementioned death count.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3283]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Again, it’s not just about living. We can’t send people out there who will be laid up in bed for 2 weeks or hospitalized. This is also the second day in a row in Dallas that someone died in their 20’s. 
 

How many tests will it take for 130 teams to be able to test players and coaches enough? A lot more than we currently have. 

Again, Im not saying crowds is the answer (we can definitely do this without crowds), but this thing just isnt as deadly as we thought. We cant continue to shutdown the whole world over something about 99.75% of the population will survive. I promise you a prolonged shutdown will be more deadly and harmful to to our way of life than that. The only problem here is that we live in a sue happy and over litigated country. So sometimes common sense loses. But if we just continue to social distance and take proper precautions, and the people at risk are smart about their exposures, there is no good reason to not go back to normal. 

[4th&Five 41590]

I don’t think a fall without football will be all that deadly or harmful to our way of life. I just see it hard to justify the risk when by September we’ll have who knows how many deaths from this. 100k? 150k?

I’m not saying there couldn’t be a safe way to do it but we’re basically opening up our state with very little planning so I’m not holding my breath there will be one by then. 

Edited May 2, 2020 by 4th&Five

[Sejjr 3246]

20 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Again, it’s not just about living. We can’t send people out there who will be laid up in bed for 2 weeks or hospitalized. This is also the second day in a row in Dallas that someone died in their 20’s. 
 

How many tests will it take for 130 teams to be able to test players and coaches enough? A lot more than we currently have. 

One of the 20 year olds had been critically ill already. Did the second have any health issues? 

[gmr548 16617]

There is a 99.9% chance a healthy 20 year old will live, so they shouldnt be too worried

This is a very tired talking point.

1.) 300lb OL/DL are often not particularly healthy and are in fact higher risk. A guy like Keondre Coburn, for example, absolutely has elevated risk.

2.) The risk of death is minimal, the risk of hospitalization is not. The risk of spreading around the program and to opponents is not.

3.) Coaches, support staff, etc. Are not 20 year old athletes.

I get that you want to see football but this line of thinking is just ignoring the problem.

[gmr548 16617]

I agree with y'all. It' s just that we may be in about the same spot, testing-wise and treatment-wise, in March 2021 as we are in September 2020. That's why I can see them giving it a go, more or less on time. By then we'll know how things went with foreign sports and even some of our own like MLB and MLS.
Definitely hard to visualize right now when most of the country is still locked down, barely any hotels in use, flights, etc. And the aforementioned death count.

I think the NFL will find a way. Too much money on the line, including everyone's livelihood, and far fewer people to get on the same page. College is a lot more comolex and I don't see it happening outside of maybe secsecsec. They really won't give a fuck over there.

[Js1 85583]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This is a very tired talking point.

1.) 300lb OL/DL are often not particularly healthy and are in fact higher risk. A guy like Keondre Coburn, for example, absolutely has elevated risk.

2.) The risk of death is minimal, the risk of hospitalization is not. The risk of spreading around the program and to opponents is not.

3.) Coaches, support staff, etc. Are not 20 year old athletes.

I get that you want to see football but this line of thinking is just ignoring the problem.

Right? A bunch of refs got it before the conference MBB tournaments got cancelled.  Now multiply CFB refs by 5, coaches by 5, support staff by 5, players by 6. 

Coaches are absolutely fat unhealthy slobs. Gary Patterson would probably be the first to get it too, I’d put money on that 

[Dnaguy 12082]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Right? A bunch of refs got it before the conference MBB tournaments got cancelled.  Now multiply CFB refs by 5, coaches by 5, support staff by 5, players by 6. 

Coaches are absolutely fat unhealthy slobs. Gary Patterson would probably be the first to get it too, I’d put money on that 

[gmr548 16617]

Any thoughts on what happens when players and students start testing positive?

A lot of old fat dudes that pay to have their grass cut vocally posting on the internet about how soft players, millenials, and society are because we let CFB get interrupted by the virus.