College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[4th&Five 41590]

Live (or at least new) cornhole championships are on espn2 right now, so there’s a chance. 

[gmr548 16617]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Well they're pretty used to keeping it within the family.

[Red Five 40895]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Live (or at least new) cornhole championships are on espn2 right now, so there’s a chance. 

Is that the 77-0 game?

[GRHorn 105]

On 5/8/2020 at 11:55 AM, 4th&Five said:

the very first step is having enough testing and we're nowhere close to that.  until i can walk into cvs and get tested we shouldn't be talking about sports when they will most likely have to be tested daily.

It’s not about you being able to get a test on demand. 

[Butch Had Not 2993]

10 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

 

The only way the SEC doesn’t play is if the government tells them they can’t. And it will have to be the federal government because the state governors aren’t going to stand in the way of sacred football, in the name of all those poor people who work the games (see: Georgia).

 

It just means more (death).

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

Live (or at least new) cornhole championships are on espn2 right now, so there’s a chance. 

Not all heros wear capes

[Don Johnson 4756]

Pro related, but Peter King interviewed Fauci about the possibility of playing football in the fall

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/11/nfl-season-dr-fauci-coronavirus-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

Quote

 

Toward the end of a 20-minute telephone interview Saturday evening with America’s COVID-19 expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, I asked a question about testing, and about NFL teams playing football this fall.

“Suppose,” I asked, “you test a team of 53 players on a Saturday night and four are positive. Is there a level at which—”

Fauci, the director of the National Institutes for Health since 1984, interrupted. “You got a problem there,” he said. “You know why? Because it is likely that if four of them are positive and they’ve been hanging around together, that the other ones that are negative are really positive. So I mean, if you have one outlier [only one player testing positive], I think you might get away. But once you wind up having a situation where it looks like it’s spread within a team, you got a real problem. You gotta shut it down.”

Shut it down. Quarantine the team, he means. For 14 days. The next two games for that team? Cancelled or postponed. That could be life in the NFL in 2020.

“Also,” I said, “I take it that teams have to be willing to say, If Patrick Mahomes tests positive on a Saturday night, he’s got to disappear for two weeks.”

“Absolutely, absolutely,” Fauci said. “It would be malpractice in medicine to put him on the field, absolutely.”

 

Quote

“I think it’s feasible that negative testing players could play to an empty stadium,” Fauci said. “Is it guaranteed? No way . . . There will be virus out there and you will know your players are negative at the time they step onto the field. You’re not endangering . . . Also, if the virus is so low that even in the general community the risk is low, then I could see filling a third of the stadium or half the stadium so people could be six feet apart. I mean, that’s something that is again feasible depending on the level of infection. I keep getting back to that: It’s going to depend. Like, right now, if you fast forward, and it is now September. The season starts. I say you can’t have a season—it’s impossible. There’s too much infection out there. It doesn’t matter what you do. But I would hope that by the time you get to September it’s not gonna be the way it is right now.”

Quote

 

“Sweat does not do it,” Fauci said. “This is a respiratory virus, so it’s going to be spread by shedding virus. The problem with virus shedding is that if I have it in my nasal pharynx, and it sheds and I wipe my hand against my nose—now it’s on my hand. You see, then I touch my chest or my thigh, then it’s on my chest or my thigh for at least a few hours. Sweat as such won’t transmit it. But if people are in such close contact as football players are on every single play, then that’s the perfect set up for spreading. I would think that if there is an infected football player on the field—a middle linebacker, a tackle, whoever it is it—as soon as they hit the next guy, the chances are that they will be shedding virus all over that person.

“If you really want to be in a situation where you want to be absolutely certain, you’d test all the players before the game. And you say, Those who are infected: Sorry, you’re sidelined. Those who are free: Get in there and play.”

 

 

[irishtexan 11522]

On 5/9/2020 at 7:52 PM, GRHorn said:

It’s not about you being able to get a test on demand. 

I think for a lot of people it might be. I don't expect folks to be OK with us prioritizing regular testing of college football players for recreational sporting if they can't go get their own test. I love college football, but I want to be able to see my parents and have them be able to watch my kids for a weekend more than I want to see a college football game played in front of no fans.

[4th&Five 41590]

48 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Pro related, but Peter King interviewed Fauci about the possibility of playing football in the fall

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/11/nfl-season-dr-fauci-coronavirus-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

 

the way we're going it'll be worse in september than it is now.

[LTbear 4171]

14 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

the way we're going it'll be worse in september than it is now.

Yep...

[Bartles 769]

47 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I think for a lot of people it might be. I don't expect folks to be OK with us prioritizing regular testing of college football players for recreational sporting if they can't go get their own test. I love college football, but I want to be able to see my parents and have them be able to watch my kids for a weekend more than I want to see a college football game played in front of no fans.

We're all in the same system though. UT football is more likely to get tests on demand than Rice. But Rice is more likely to get them than you and your buddies. And you are more likely to get tested than a Wendy's cashier. Even widespread complaining from fans, not to mention non-fans, isn't going to change any of that.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

the way we're going it'll be worse in september than it is now.

What do you mean by this?

[clapclapclap 9000]

How long until a pro league decides to go the herd immunity route?  It will have to be on a voluntary basis for the players, probably something like everyone is guaranteed X amount of their pay (20%?) but get full pay and a bonus for each game they play in.

I don't think college football will have the option, since most non-SEC players aren't as highly paid.  I doubt any 2020 season attempt makes it more than a month before suspending again until 2021.

MLB can better handle players sitting out 14-30 days and can play with much less risk (you might not like some of the potential rule changes, but it's doable.)  I'd guess they'll be able to pull off a full season without too much turmoil.  NBA & NHL less certain, but NFL is going to be tough.  I'd guess at some point they'll suspend for a few weeks and eventually adapt to a voluntary herd strategy. 

[irishtexan 11522]

12 minutes ago, Bartles said:

We're all in the same system though. UT football is more likely to get tests on demand than Rice. But Rice is more likely to get them than you and your buddies. And you are more likely to get tested than a Wendy's cashier. Even widespread complaining from fans, not to mention non-fans, isn't going to change any of that.

Sure. I don't think any of this matters though because, as Fauci outlined in his response to Peter King, there is just too great a risk for the virus to spread among competitive athletes who are in such close physical contact with such a great risk of exposure. Combine the fact that coaches and athletes will be traveling more than the average person, increasing their levels of exposure, there just doesn't seem to be a way to keep it out. Then when you consider the number of coaches who are over the age of 65, and the potential liability for the schools/teams/leagues if a coach or player gets it and dies from it, I just don't think we'll have sports until we have a treatment or a vaccine. That would be a fucking massive public relations hit. 

[Js1 85582]

5 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Sure. I don't think any of this matters though because, as Fauci outlined in his response to Peter King, there is just too great a risk for the virus to spread among competitive athletes who are in such close physical contact with such a great risk of exposure. Combine the fact that coaches and athletes will be traveling more than the average person, increasing their levels of exposure, there just doesn't seem to be a way to keep it out. Then when you consider the number of coaches who are over the age of 65, and the potential liability for the schools/teams/leagues if a coach or player gets it and dies from it, I just don't think we'll have sports until we have a treatment or a vaccine. That would be a fucking massive public relations hit. 

I mean give me a fucking break that Dabo would quarantine Lawrence or Saban would quarantine his QB before the LSU game. Imagine Sam has to be quarantined the Monday before OU. 

No coach wants this. 

[Thiefery 5017]

I don't understand the whole herd mentality..  did they do that when the chicken pox first arrived too? and did it work?

[Don Johnson 4756]

If they play - high school, college or pro - a number of players will get it. Almost all will have no problem at all.  But some obese player will die at some point. And the leaders of these leagues will be crucified for it.

“I hope it was worth _____’s life for you to play a game”

[Pancho 45005]

What happens when it spreads to the coaching staffs?  Officials?

There are some fat and old fucks in both of those groups.

[irishtexan 11522]

55 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

I don't understand the whole herd mentality..  did they do that when the chicken pox first arrived too? and did it work?

My parents intentionally exposed me to chicken pox when I was in elementary school in the 80s. Back then the thought was that it's worse to get it as an adult, so just get it over with as a kid. But the chicken pox wasn't killing people. And most people got it when they were a kid. 

[Newy25 7703]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

the way we're going it'll be worse in september than it is now.

You got that based on what? 

[4th&Five 41590]

projections based on science.  we're trending towards 135,000 deaths by august.  i can't see schools firing up fall camp during that.

[Newy25 7703]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

projections based on science.  we're trending towards 135,000 deaths by august.  i can't see schools firing up fall camp during that.

So nothing in that article and nothing new other than your own personal bias and fears basically. 

[4th&Five 41590]

i'm not doing the projections so how is it my bias?  do you think as we open up the country over the summer that cases, hospitalizations and deaths will somehow decrease?

[Burt Macklin 19053]

3 hours ago, irishtexan said:

I think for a lot of people it might be. I don't expect folks to be OK with us prioritizing regular testing of college football players for recreational sporting if they can't go get their own test. I love college football, but I want to be able to see my parents and have them be able to watch my kids for a weekend more than I want to see a college football game played in front of no fans.

This is the real issue IMO. People won’t be ok with using over 100 tests per college team per week, unless tests are readily available for the average citizen, and I don’t see anyway we’ll be at that point by this fall.

[Thiefery 5017]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

i'm not doing the projections so how is it my bias?  do you think as we open up the country over the summer that cases, hospitalizations and deaths will somehow decrease?

of course.. the sun and heat will kill it

[Newy25 7703]

3 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

i'm not doing the projections so how is it my bias?  do you think as we open up the country over the summer that cases, hospitalizations and deaths will somehow decrease?

First of all, the number of total deaths will not decrease. You are citing total deaths as some sort of indicator of anything. Daily deaths are down and continue to trend lower. So are hospitalizations. But do not quote the number of deaths 4 months from now being higher than the total number of deaths today as a sign of anything and call it "science". 

[4th&Five 41590]

daily deaths are down today because we've all been in quarantine.  let's see how they look in 2 or 3 weeks.

you seem sure they'll be able to have a season so explain it to us.  how do we keep players, coaches, staff and everyone else safe and healthy for 4 months?

 

[Newy25 7703]

3 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

daily deaths are down today because we've all been in quarantine.  let's see how they look in 2 or 3 weeks.

you seem sure they'll be able to have a season so explain it to us.  how do we keep players, coaches, staff and everyone else safe and healthy for 4 months?

 

Georgia has been open for two weeks. Have you checked their daily hospitalizations? It might shock your bias that the world is ending. 

[Thiefery 5017]

1 minute ago, Newy25 said:

Georgia has been open for two weeks. Have you checked their daily hospitalizations? It might shock your bias that the world is ending. 

i knew it was a conspiracy..  we need to be in the sec sec sec

[NeverMarryAStripper 21922]

22 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

First of all, the number of total deaths will not decrease. You are citing total deaths as some sort of indicator of anything. Daily deaths are down and continue to trend lower. So are hospitalizations. But do not quote the number of deaths 4 months from now being higher than the total number of deaths today as a sign of anything and call it "science". 

It may not be a natural science, but I think math is a science.

[Pig Bellmont 8739]

7 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

Georgia has been open for two weeks. Have you checked their daily hospitalizations? It might shock your bias that the world is ending. 

I read that they have 5 of the top 10 counties for deaths on a per capita basis. Maybe not time for a victory lap. 
 

 

[Newy25 7703]

18 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I read that they have 5 of the top 10 counties for deaths on a per capita basis. Maybe not time for a victory lap. 
 

 

Still did not answer my question. Go pull the number of people in a hospital getting treated for Covid today vs 2 weeks ago. Your choice of "victory lap" is interesting because this has become a tribal issue. 

[wood 11268]

2 hours ago, Thiefery said:

I don't understand the whole herd mentality..  did they do that when the chicken pox first arrived too? and did it work?

 

2 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

If they play - high school, college or pro - a number of players will get it. Almost all will have no problem at all.  But some obese player will die at some point. And the leaders of these leagues will be crucified for it.

“I hope it was worth _____’s life for you to play a game”

Yeah it's like a mob going up against some riot police with M16s. The crowd vastly outnumbers the police and will no doubt win at the end of the rampage, but some folks in the crowd are gonna catch some lead & die.  So, are you gonna be in the crowd that rushes the riot police? Seems like the same kind of thing when we're talking about "just going the herd immunity route". 

 

[4th&Five 41590]

good point.  they're not in the hospital if they're dead.

[Pig Bellmont 8739]

9 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

Still did not answer my question. Go pull the number of people in a hospital getting treated for Covid today vs 2 weeks ago. Your choice of "victory lap" is interesting because this has become a tribal issue. 

Your point seems to be that 6,000+ hospitalizations is a lower total than prior weeks and therefore opening with no restrictions “doesn’t mean the end of the world”
 

My point was that per capita deaths indicate the virus is not receding in Georgia.  It’s hard to see football by Labor Day even with no fans. 

[Pimphand 5903]

3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What do you mean by this?

Don't you even fear porn bro?

[David Dennison 18947]

1 hour ago, Newy25 said:

So nothing in that article and nothing new other than your own personal bias and fears basically. 

If there are 135,000 dead by August, do you really see football happening?

[Red Five 40895]

There will be 100k deaths by the end of next week.

[irishtexan 11522]

1 hour ago, Thiefery said:

of course.. the sun and heat will kill it

Except that didn't happen in Australia when it ravaged the country in February during their summer, and there is no study indicating that the transmission rates are substantially lessened in hotter climates. It might happen. But the data more strongly supports the assertion that heat does not kill the virus or impact its transmission. 

1 hour ago, Newy25 said:

Georgia has been open for two weeks. Have you checked their daily hospitalizations? It might shock your bias that the world is ending. 

People typically do not show symptoms until 4-5 days after infection. Then they slowly get sicker and sicker, typically waiting until the very last possible moment before admitting they have to go to the hospital. That's usually well past the two-week point of infection. Also, not everyone gets infected the first day of reopening.  I'd say we won't any initial data of the impact of reopening for another two weeks, and then we won't have a full sense of the impact until early to mid July. 

[Thiefery 5017]

25 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Except that didn't happen in Australia when it ravaged the country in February during their summer, and there is no study indicating that the transmission rates are substantially lessened in hotter climates. It might happen. But the data more strongly supports the assertion that heat does not kill the virus or impact its transmission. 

People typically do not show symptoms until 4-5 days after infection. Then they slowly get sicker and sicker, typically waiting until the very last possible moment before admitting they have to go to the hospital. That's usually well past the two-week point of infection. Also, not everyone gets infected the first day of reopening.  I'd say we won't any initial data of the impact of reopening for another two weeks, and then we won't have a full sense of the impact until early to mid July. 

[wood 11268]

49 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

People typically do not show symptoms until 4-5 days after infection. 

Here's an article relating to F1 trying to run behind-closed-doors races, quoting top virologists saying: 

Quote

"drivers and staff will need to be held in solitary confinement for up to five days before every race to ensure they are free of coronavirus ... According to experts, all F1 personnel will need to be held in isolation for as much as five days and tested three times during that period in order to get the all-clear. The reason for this is that "current tests are not sensitive enough to detect infections within the first couple of days after infection," says Dr Jeremy Rossman, a virologist at the University of Kent. "Most people will have a detectable virus in three to five days, so testing everyone three times over a span of five days would give good confidence that most people are not infected." Crucially, he adds that "all staff would have to be isolated during the testing and during the whole event".

There's some good detail on incubation time, etc in the (long)article:

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/52612210?fbclid=IwAR1oty6o94UleHP6VMfbILzbd53B0Al1QuRG1WsqkeODC2GPlaPa_MCIbAM

Spoiler

F1 has been on hold since March when its season-opener in Australia got the red light after a member of the McLaren team tested positive for Covid-19. Since then, F1 has postponed or cancelled 10 of its 22 races but hopes to get underway in July with a race in Austria.

If this goes ahead, F1's teams and drivers will fly there from the UK, Italy and Switzerland which increases the risk of someone catching and spreading the virus.

In order to prevent this from happening, F1's motorsport boss Ross Brawn told Sky Sports earlier this week that "everybody will be tested and will receive clearance before they can go in to the paddock." According to experts, all F1 personnel will need to be held in isolation for as much as five days and tested three times during that period in order to get the all-clear.

The reason for this is that "current tests are not sensitive enough to detect infections within the first couple of days after infection," says Dr Jeremy Rossman, a virologist at the University of Kent. "Most people will have a detectable virus in three to five days, so testing everyone three times over a span of five days would give good confidence that most people are not infected." Crucially, he adds that "all staff would have to be isolated during the testing and during the whole event."

In summary, if F1 drivers or staff catch the virus during the five days prior to their test, it won't yet be detectable. Their test would show up as being negative when the personnel are actually positive and could go on to infect other people at the track.

To rule out this risk, people whose tests are negative would need to be tested at least one more time five days later in case they caught the virus in the run up to their first test. They would need to be in solitary confinement for that five day period because if they were in contact with other people during that time they could pick up the virus from them.

To ensure that personnel are clear of coronavirus, this process of quarantining and testing has to be done in advance of every race, including the British Grand Prix if that goes ahead. Personnel would need to test negative every time in order to attend a race whereas anyone who tests positive could not.

It reflects comments from Marc van Ranst, a virologist who is advising Uefa about the coronavirus. Talking to ITV News about the plan to restart the Premier League, he said "if you get your infection during the day, you will not be able to diagnose it in the evening. It takes a while for the virus to take hold and be detectable. It is detectable in your throat after three days before you develop symptoms, but it won’t be detectable in a couple of hours after being infected."

Rossman says that "even this stringent testing process would likely miss an individual with a prolonged incubation" as "there are some reports of incubation periods as long as two weeks."

He adds that "just one infected person that slips through the isolation could then spread the virus to multiple people, especially over a multiple day event...I don’t think it’s possible to eliminate the risks associated with the event, though it is possible to minimise them, albeit with significant effort of all people involved."

Rossman says this effort involves standard measures such as staff regularly washing their hands, keeping six feet apart from each other and not touching their face. In addition, "providing sanitiser stations and requiring all staff to wear face coverings, could all help to reduce any transmission that does slip through the testing. Finally, requiring all staff to self-isolate for two weeks when they return home could also help to minimise virus transmission."

The teams may have no choice about this as the UK government is expected to introduce a 14-day quarantine on incoming travellers from the end of May. If this is still in place in July it could be a roadblock for F1 as it hopes to host as many as 18 races over a six month period.

This hasn't been lost on the drivers. Alex Wurz, the chairman of Grand Prix Drivers' Association, said on Friday that he thought the plans are being handled "in a typical F1 safety way which is immaculate." However, he admitted that "if half of the paddock was stuck in quarantine that would throw a spanner in the gearbox of going racing in July."

Rossman says "the international nature of this event is one of the biggest causes of concern. I don’t think it’s possible to eliminate the risks associated with the event...Removing the spectators is a good step, but with the very large number of support staff, the risks of international transmission and triggering multiple Covid-19 resurgences is very real."

World Health Organization (WHO) adviser Professor David Heymann says the only hope of shortcutting the days of quarantine comes from studies to see if testing in the nasal passage allows the virus to be detected sooner. He says there is no guarantee that the studies will be fruitful but if they are, it "might compensate for some of the lag period – by the time of the F1 some of these new procedures may have been proven to be effective."

...

 

[66BUFF 2565]

3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

projections based on science.  

Theres that fag talk we talked about

[Newy25 7703]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

If there are 135,000 dead by August, do you really see football happening?

Yes. 

[gecko 1104]

Just received an email from UT Chancellor, others probably have it as well, stating that students will be back on campus in the Fall.

"...My conclusion is that it’s not a question of whether we open for students, but how.  We hope to give students the in-person learning experience we all value, but we will do so in a way that protects the health and safety of students, faculty, staff, patients and visitors.  So while I’m pretty certain campus life won’t be exactly like last fall, it won’t be like this spring, either..."

[David Dennison 18947]

16 hours ago, Newy25 said:

Yes. 

Music to the ears of attorneys all over the country.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

18 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If there are 135,000 dead by August, do you really see football happening?

I hope so. This thing isn’t going away. 

[HoffaJimmy 316]

If there is a football season (and that's a big if) there will be no or limited fans and a shortened schedule. I think that's best case as of this very moment. 

[Bob Lives! 921]

56 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Music to the ears of attorneys all over the country.

Proving causation is going to be next to impossible in these lawsuits.  I know one was filed against Walmart in Illinois in April, but I'll bet you posting privileges for a year that it gets dismissed.   And I'll bet that dismissal gets a fraction of the press and the original filing got.  The insurance industry will use your fear of lawyers to further suppress your own rights and further insulate themselves from risk.  This isn't really about coronavirus.  

[4th&Five 41590]

What happens if some players don’t feel safe playing during this? Do the lose their scholarship?