College Football in 2020 in danger?

Eskimohorn · June 30, 2020

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.
I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.
Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things.

In Texas, hospitalizations and ICU capacity have dominated this week’s news cycles. Ive seen them broken down by age and race.

20-year olds are the fastest growing group of positive cases in Texas.

Right now, Latinos and African-Americans have the highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

TrashMaster G · June 30, 2020

20 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

A lady in my mom's office refused to wear a mask and cited this exact reasoning. Of course, she tested positive on Friday and now everybody there has to get tested.

Can you get me her address? I'd like to mail her a "Get Better and Fuck You" card.

19 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Strikes me that there could be people filling up the hospitals in San Antonion recently and death rates could be falling in Texas. Both of those things can be true at the same time.

Probably some combination of the fact that deaths are a trailing indicator and younger people going out and partying while older folks largely stay home.

DanTheHorn · June 30, 2020

3 hours ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things.

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

6 hours ago, Bartles said:

There are some twitter threads by @boriquagato that make an interesting case that the new spikes are mostly protest related, but many of the northern cities had already been hit so hard that they had more immunity and thus were able to weather the mass gatherings. I'm not fully on board with that, but there may be something to it. It's just hard to ignore the much more obvious sparks coming from crowded indoor bars.

Los Angeles was not "open" when the protests happened. In fact, I vividly remember having my first meal at a restaurant in 3 months the day they started, then that night, shit hit the fan, Fairfax was destroyed, and everything was immediately shuttered again, this time with plywood. Anyone who says that mass protests, of which there were many and for days, did not contribute to the rise in positive test results from the younger population here is completely and 100% full of shit. There is no other logical reason for it.

Pasken · June 30, 2020

14 hours ago, Apex73 said:

Yea I'm not denying we opened shit back up way too fast and that definitely contributed too but protests definitely contributed heavily too. I don't care what the media says. Protests have way more people gathered together at once than restaurants, businesses, bars, etc. Talking about people by the hundreds and in some cases thousands. Though there are new studies out that suggest UV rays kill the virus so I could see that being a possibility in some areas if protests are being held in sunlight.

Maybe if people were protesting inside buildings that had circular airflow. The "media" is reporting what studies are showing.

927 E. 41st · June 30, 2020

I probably just wasted my time, but it's parking selection day. So I went ahead and bought parking for the season. I would imagine I'll get all or part of that back in about 6 weeks. But WTH, if by some miracle we have spectators in the stands I'll have a place to park.

They seem to be pressing on as normal except for the seating selection part of the drill.

BradInATX · June 30, 2020

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though.

Cliff's:

Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. In most cases, the estimated longer-run effect (post-21 days) was negative, though not statistically distinguishable from zero.20

Edited June 30, 2020 by BradInATX

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

21 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

I probably just wasted my time, but it's parking selection day. So I went ahead and bought parking for the season. I would imagine I'll get all or part of that back in about 6 weeks. But WTH, if by some miracle we have spectators in the stands I'll have a place to park.

They seem to be pressing on as normal except for the seating selection part of the drill.

You're gonna get a sweet spot.

4th&Five · June 30, 2020

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though.

That is an interesting study. The point that the protests actually caused MORE social distancing in the immediate aftermath is a valid one. In LA, we had forced curfews, and all the shops and restaurants that were beginning their re-opening plans indeed put a halt to that, either out of self-preservation or to make repairs from the damage.

"We demonstrate that cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline."

The issue here is that we are now experiencing a "spike", which lines up very closely with the lag time of the protests. And despite the fact that protesters were largely wearing masks, as we know from the CDC and others expert sources, simple cloth coverings are not very effective, and can also lead to constant face-touching, which defeats their purpose to a large degree. That study of infection trends also cuts off around June 20.

That study also fails to convey the consequence that once the protests started, the general thought especially among the age demographic of the protesters was "COVID is over, and the police are not going to enforce it anymore." So while the social distancing among non-protesters may have increased, the social distancing among the younger population did not. It is also difficult to pinpoint where a new infection might have come from when many states, NY and California included, specifically avoided asking people if they had been at a protest when they took their test.

So let me ask this: if the protests had no adverse affect on the rise in COVID positive test results that we have seen in the past 9 days, what has caused the rise in Los Angeles county? And if these huge gatherings didn't cause a spike, why are gatherings among anyone but your immediate family now banned in LA? Leaving aside the fact that we have seen a large uptick in actual testing being conducted and a large uptick in hospitalizations and doctor visits for non-COVID related reasons, and people seeking employment are also required to test, and any positive tests result in testing among their families and contacts as well....if we leave all of those facts aside....what has caused the spike? It is certainly not bars or the beach or bike paths.

SubliminalHorn · June 30, 2020

3 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

what has caused the spike? It is certainly not bars or the beach or bike paths.

I think it's been young people who either think this is overblown or think it's basically a cold. I've just heard from friends who are testing positive from going on a boat party in Austin. There are pictures all over showing crowded bars, pool parties, and boat parties. No masks and no social distancing. That's what is fueling the current spike.

Stannis · June 30, 2020

40 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though.

Cliff's:

Thanks for sharing this. I've had a hard time finding good data on this. If true, it is great news that mass gatherings outside don't seem to cause a substantial increase in cases. That could be an important data point for policymakers deciding whether to keep beaches, parks, and other outdoor forums open as cases increase.

The problem here is the disparate treatment between BLM protesters and "Open the Economy" protesters. The viewpoint discrimination by many in the media (and I suspect many on this website) is frustratingly hypocritical. When the "Open the Economy" protesters were out in full force in early May, countless Americans were proclaiming that those people were irresponsible hicks who (1) were all going to get infected; (2) would cause exponential spikes in cases; and (3) should decline treatment after their inevitable infection because they assumed the risk from engaging in such grossly negligent behavior as peacefully assembling to protest for a cause they believed in.

Then, a matter of weeks later, the same people who were eviscerating the "Open the Economy" protesters were either (1) themselves engaged in BLM protests; or (2) vocally supportive of such protests. That's fine - I'm a big believer in exercising one's right to peacefully assemble and petition the government for redress of grievances. It's the hypocrisy that I and many others can't stand. It seems clear that many people who are trying to draw a correlation between case spikes and the BLM protesters are doing so out frustration at that hypocrisy. If the data doesn't support that, then good; fewer cases is a good thing. But the hypocrisy is still there.

927 E. 41st · June 30, 2020

1 hour ago, Sejjr said:

You're gonna get a sweet spot.

I've spent a lifetime looking for the sweet spot!

Wally Fairway · June 30, 2020

5 hours ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things.

Agree that hospitalizations is the #1 stat - because it shows how the medical system is being stressed
Deaths are important, but are a lagging indicator - by then there isn't much you can do to stem the tide
But IMO too much emphasis is given to positive tests, because it doesn't relate to the number of tests, I think they should disclose the % positive tests because that can tell you if the rate is rising (meaning a higher R0) or if the rate is falling (related to increased testing). But I also realize the there is some variability due to positive people having to retest multiple times, same person testing negative multiple times, etc.

4th&Five · June 30, 2020

Positive test rates are rising. Those numbers are out there.

notre dame joe · June 30, 2020

16 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Protests may be a small factor. If they had a lot to do with it we wouldn't have just shut the entire Covid unit down at UofC. You can look up where UofC is located. No way in hell, we'd have been able to close that if the protests caused a large flare up. If anyone says they had 'nothing' to do with it - yeah, that would be absurd. But, again, it wasn't a huge factor. NYC very low too. FL has more cases then all of europe...sure there's more testing but I highly doubt FL tested more patients than all of Europe. It just puts into context, the type of flare up we are having. There's a massive difference in how the virus spreads inside vs outside...Texas, AZ, and FL opened up indoor shit way too fast. Nobody can deny that.

Well the mistake was closing the indoor stuff before the virus was even here. That used up the general public's energy for remaining inside when the outdoor weather was (in AZ's case very good). Now they're asking for a 2nd round of some kind of lockdowns right after people thought the first was a total waste.

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

53 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Positive test rates are rising. Those numbers are out there.

Can you provide your source for percent positive case rates? This chart appears to disagree with your statement.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Sejjr

justhookit · June 30, 2020

12 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

Can you provide your source for percent positive case rates? This chart appears to disagree with your statement.

United States - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Texas - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas

It’s going up. A lot.

The Marsellus Wallace · June 30, 2020

There are liars, damn liars, and . . .

MontereyMX · June 30, 2020

FROM WBAP 820AM: Dallas County reports 601 additional Covid-19 cases and 20 additional deaths. Reply STOP to quit.

JMFP · June 30, 2020

2 minutes ago, MontereyMX said:

FROM WBAP 820AM: Dallas County reports 601 additional Covid-19 cases and 20 additional deaths. Reply STOP to quit.

STOP

MontereyMX · June 30, 2020

1 minute ago, JMFP said:

STOP

lol

Js1 · June 30, 2020

1 hour ago, Sejjr said:

Can you provide your source for percent positive case rates? This chart appears to disagree with your statement.

Wait wait wait

You didn't even provide a source (link or credit this data) for your own chart and you're asking people to provide sources to dispute your unsourced data?

4th&Five · June 30, 2020

TX: The statewide 7-day positivity rate crawled back over 14 percent. It was under 4.5 percent a month ago, and under 7 percent 2 weeks ago.

HtownHorn · June 30, 2020

5 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

In Texas, hospitalizations and ICU capacity have dominated this week’s news cycles. Ive seen them broken down by age and race.

20-year olds are the fastest growing group of positive cases in Texas.

Right now, Latinos and African-Americans have the highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

Js1 · June 30, 2020

Just now, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

ITS NOT THE PROTESTS CAUSING THE INCREASE.

4th&Five · June 30, 2020

5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

Maybe opening bars, gyms, churches and restaurants was a worse one.

Burt Macklin · June 30, 2020

9 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

The Marsellus Wallace · June 30, 2020

14 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

On so many levels.

MotownHorn · June 30, 2020

3 hours ago, Sejjr said:..what has caused the spike? It is certainly not bars or the beach or bike paths.

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

Message Board User · June 30, 2020

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

15 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

Reading comprehension is clearly lost on you. I very specifically and clearly asked about Los Angeles County. I did not ask about Michigan, or your "stories of clusters of infected people" on a beach somewhere. Bars were not reopened here. Beach infections are trivial (outdoor infections, see:protests) as are infections on bike trails, though I am sure you have many stories of bike trail infections somewhere.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Wait wait wait

You didn't even provide a source (link or credit this data) for your own chart and you're asking people to provide sources to dispute your unsourced data?

You really got me good. That chart comes from information from the Covid Tracking Project. Just like the chart referenced above from John's Hopkins. And nearly all the charts that get tossed around on twitter.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Sejjr

TrashMaster G · June 30, 2020

24 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

Literally?

Bartles · June 30, 2020

Doing something right in Lubbock, although watch them hold a celebration party for eliminating the virus

@nicoleauerbach

Texas Tech announces that it has completed 21 additional tests for COVID-19 among its football newcomers/staff members with zero positive results. Texas Tech has completed 218 tests for football athletes/staff with a total of 23 positive results, all of which are now recovered.

Burt Macklin · June 30, 2020

2 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Literally?

I sure hope so. If this thing starts infecting people figuratively, we will literally be fucked.

Herpa Derpa · June 30, 2020

3 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

I've spent a lifetime looking for the sweet spot!

The spouse tells me I'm the same.

Sejjr · June 30, 2020

2 hours ago, The Marsellus Wallace said:

There are liars, damn liars, and . . .

...COVID charts.

SimkinsMan · June 30, 2020

Texas set a record with nearly 7,000 cases today. Hospitalizations also recorded their biggest one-day jump. But it's cool right? Just media hype and those damned protests.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Ignatius · June 30, 2020

14 hours ago, SimkinsMan said:

Texas set a record with nearly 7,000 cases today. Hospitalizations also recorded their biggest one-day jump. But it's cool right? Just media hype and those damned protests.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Every single one of those 7,000 a Yankee hippy science-believing liberal faggot....

Apex73 · June 30, 2020

7 hours ago, Eugene11 said:

not that i agree with 6th street on everything but i took that post to be responding with like commentary..... just saying. say dumb things get dumb responses.

What I said wasn't dumb though. It was a perfectly rational point of view. If you think the media isn't at least a bit blowing this out of proportion or that the protests didn't have anything to do with the spike then you are kidding yourself.

Apex73 · June 30, 2020

6 hours ago, Pasken said:

Maybe if people were protesting inside buildings that had circular airflow. The "media" is reporting what studies are showing.

The media also has a narrative that they run with and it has different sides to it depending on which one you watch. Once again if you think the media isn't at least a little bit fueling this or that the protests didn't have anything to do with the spike, you are not operating in reality.

MirrOlure · June 30, 2020

Maybe opening bars, gyms, churches and restaurants was a worse one.

Where are the “studies” that pinpoint the “spike/surge/swell” to bars, gyms, churches and restaurants?

BradInATX · July 1, 2020

5 hours ago, Sejjr said:

That is an interesting study. The point that the protests actually caused MORE social distancing in the immediate aftermath is a valid one. In LA, we had forced curfews, and all the shops and restaurants that were beginning their re-opening plans indeed put a halt to that, either out of self-preservation or to make repairs from the damage.

Yeah, I mean it's definitely not saying that the protesters themselves didn't increase their own risk of getting Covid by attending the protests. There was obviously elevated risk, and more people at the protests got infected than had they stay home. Just that the "end of the day" net impact on overall Covid spread was zero (actually slightly negative).

"We demonstrate that cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline."

The issue here is that we are now experiencing a "spike", which lines up very closely with the lag time of the protests. And despite the fact that protesters were largely wearing masks, as we know from the CDC and others expert sources, simple cloth coverings are not very effective, and can also lead to constant face-touching, which defeats their purpose to a large degree. That study of infection trends also cuts off around June 20.

All of this is addressed in the text of the study. The "spike" and the lag time are not only addressed but they're the two things the entire study is focused on. The average run time for secondary infections is two weeks, and this study has three weeks worth of data. The spikes are also controlled for and have zero correlation to the protests (basically the overarching conclusion of the study)

That study also fails to convey the consequence that once the protests started, the general thought especially among the age demographic of the protesters was "COVID is over, and the police are not going to enforce it anymore."

Maybe. You're speculating. I have my own speculation but as to why people thought "Covid was over", but that's neither here nor there and belongs on a different forum.

So while the social distancing among non-protesters may have increased, the social distancing among the younger population did not. It is also difficult to pinpoint where a new infection might have come from when many states, NY and California included, specifically avoided asking people if they had been at a protest when they took their test.

Contact tracing is irrelevant to this study. There was no protest "spike" in NY. NY had the largest protests in the world.

So let me ask this: if the protests had no adverse affect on the rise in COVID positive test results that we have seen in the past 9 days, what has caused the rise in Los Angeles county?

I don't know. Californians are stupid. Family gatherings? Bars? Restaurants? Gyms? Church? You know, the things that have been scientifically proven to be huge vectors for the spread of the virus (unlike protests, beaches, or whatever other boogeymen du jour we're going with).

And if these huge gatherings didn't cause a spike, why are gatherings among anyone but your immediate family now banned in LA?

I don't understand this question. States were shutting down gatherings outside of immediate family well before the protests. Parties and gatherings, particularly indoors, are known vectors for spread.

Leaving aside the fact that we have seen a large uptick in actual testing being conducted and a large uptick in hospitalizations and doctor visits for non-COVID related reasons, and people seeking employment are also required to test, and any positive tests result in testing among their families and contacts as well....if we leave all of those facts aside....what has caused the spike? It is certainly not bars or the beach or bike paths.

Have you not been paying attention to the data? It certainly is bars. And family get togethers and parties and church and gyms and things like that. It's construction workers in the same vehicles and hotel rooms. Typically indoors and typically with a small person to area ratio, bonus points if people are yelling. You know, the places that basically every other virus in human history has been spread.

.

Edited July 1, 2020 by BradInATX

MirrOlure · July 1, 2020

Here we go again with “bars, restaurants, gyms and churches.” Holy fuck if nothing else, I give y’all credit for having your talking points in order.

BradInATX · July 1, 2020

3 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

Here we go again with “bars, restaurants, gyms and churches.” Holy fuck if nothing else, I give y’all credit for having your talking points in order.

Science and data - "talking points"

Fuck outta here with your conspiracy theorist flat earther bullshit.

https://people.com/health/fauci-stop-going-to-bars-right-now-coronavirus/ - "Speaking at the U.S. Senate Committee hearing on Tuesday, Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that congregating inside at bars "bad news."

https://khn.org/news/packed-bars-serve-up-new-rounds-of-covid-contagion/ - Public health authorities have identified bars as the locus of outbreaks in Louisiana, Florida, Wyoming and Idaho

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6920e2.htm - High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church — Arkansas, March 2020

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/28/trump-coronavirus-spread-churches-342296 - "n West Virginia, six health departments across the state have reported coronavirus outbreaks linked to churches. One of them, a Baptist church in Greenbrier County, had 34 congregants test positive for the virus. And in Texas, which hit an all-time high of new cases last week, health officials have received numerous reports of church-related exposures."

Edited July 1, 2020 by BradInATX

BradInATX · July 1, 2020

28 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

Where are the “studies” that pinpoint the “spike/surge/swell” to bars, gyms, churches and restaurants?

https://www.mlive.com/news/2020/06/coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-east-lansing-bar-tops-100-officials-take-emergency-action.html

https://www.mankatofreepress.com/news/local_news/rounders-507-bars-in-mankato-linked-to-covid-19-outbreaks/article_1de9ce8a-b7e7-11ea-80aa-17d1f1f000c2.html

https://www.startribune.com/four-bars-linked-to-covid-19-surge-in-young-adults/571513112/

http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5645

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/health/2020/06/30/bars-delaware-beaches-covid/5348619002/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/coronavirus-deaths-new-cases-plateauing-in-virginia-maryland-dc/2020/06/30/a431632e-badd-11ea-bdaf-a129f921026f_story.html

https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/3-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-visiting-royal-oak-sports-bar

BradInATX · July 1, 2020

https://fortune.com/2020/06/26/is-it-safe-restaurant-coronavirus-cases-credit-cards-restaurants-jp-morgan-chase-covid-19-outbreaks/

Here's what's going to happen. MirrOlure is not going to ready any of what I just posted, and he's going to come back and say something really stupid.

Edited July 1, 2020 by BradInATX

4th&Five · July 1, 2020

Well, some of those links are from media outlets and he thinks the media is fueling this therefore the information in them doesn’t matter. Rinse & repeat.

Jimbob · July 1, 2020

1 hour ago, Herpa Derpa said:

The spouse tells me I'm the same.

Interesting, she tells me I find it every time.

Herpa Derpa · July 1, 2020

1 minute ago, Jimbob said:

Interesting, she tells me I find it every time.

Better keep her happy. That's a very kindhearted woman you've got there.

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