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College Football in 2020 in danger?

The_Great_Hornsby

By The_Great_Hornsby
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Veerbone
Veerbone

It’s horrible, why did the liberal state run governments let everyone die?  Shameful.  

Bob Lives!
Bob Lives!

Ignore this crap about personal injury lawsuits from Covid. It isn’t happening. It comes from a place of ignorance and fear, or worse, insurance industry propaganda.   Lawsuits alleging negligent spre

Xavi
Xavi

Potus also shouldn't be stealing money from the American people, giving no bid contracts for political favors, colluding with enemies to allow the murder of US soldiers, using the military and federal

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5549

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3 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

  What does it take, front end loaders full of bodies?

Clearly the answer is yes - but are there any front end loaders even available - 2.7 million cases, 130,000 deaths (okay it will be tomorrow before those round numbers are hit) and still we are discussing this
And there is public debates about wearing masks, social distancing, isolation; all things that can slow the trend. But I do think that treatment has been improved and a lower % of cases will lead to death.

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nnm

nnm 36405

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#715709c47dac
National Bureau of Economic Research concludes the protests are not a contributor to the spikes.  
Link to the actual paper:  https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Abstract:

Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests have brought a new wave of attention to the issue of inequality within criminal justice. However, many public health officials have warned that mass protests could lead to a reduction in social distancing behavior, spurring a resurgence of COVID-19. This study uses newly collected data on protests in 315 of the largest U.S. cities to estimate the impacts of mass protests on social distancing and COVID-19 case growth. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non- protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence. Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived.

I’ll let y’all data geeks pick it apart. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44800

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The talk in higher ed is for colleges that want to open up to F2F in the fall, will they have faculty to teach those classes?  If faculty don't feel safe, you can't punish them for not wanting to teach in person nor can you force them to. 

That's what i'm continuously seeing.  I don't know if that is what caused USC to change their course, but that's one of the major issues right now. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44800

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7 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Can't force them to? It's your fucking job. Tenure protects them from telling the department head thanks but no thanks?

You can't force a professor to teach during a global pandemic when they could get it and possible die.   That doesn't mean they don't teach at all. 

 

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LTbear

LTbear 4169

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29 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The talk in higher ed is for colleges that want to open up to F2F in the fall, will they have faculty to teach those classes?  If faculty don't feel safe, you can't punish them for not wanting to teach in person nor can you force them to. 

That's what i'm continuously seeing.  I don't know if that is what caused USC to change their course, but that's one of the major issues right now. 

I'm a professor, and personally I know of no universities that are forcing profs to do F2F. Not that it may not exist, but it's not the norm. Everyone is planning on online or hybrid formats and I know of not a single person being actually forced to do anything.

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1 hour ago, nnm said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#715709c47dac
National Bureau of Economic Research concludes the protests are not a contributor to the spikes.  
Link to the actual paper:  https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Abstract:

Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests have brought a new wave of attention to the issue of inequality within criminal justice. However, many public health officials have warned that mass protests could lead to a reduction in social distancing behavior, spurring a resurgence of COVID-19. This study uses newly collected data on protests in 315 of the largest U.S. cities to estimate the impacts of mass protests on social distancing and COVID-19 case growth. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non- protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence. Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived.

I’ll let y’all data geeks pick it apart. 

Its the odd conclusion that the protestors increased spread and everybody else hid in their houses, decreasing spread.

Its kind of like saying Covid is saving lives because travel is down so people are not getting killed in auto accidents.

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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1762

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2 hours ago, LTbear said:

I'm a professor, and personally I know of no universities that are forcing profs to do F2F. Not that it may not exist, but it's not the norm. Everyone is planning on online or hybrid formats and I know of not a single person being actually forced to do anything.

Have any friends at WVU? They appear to be forcing them to teach F2F while also including language in their contracts that they could furlough them or reduce their salary with 30 days notice.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12395

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3 hours ago, DaysOff said:

Can't force them to? It's your fucking job. Tenure protects them from telling the department head thanks but no thanks?

Amen, especially in college.  Lots of teachers from Kindergarten through college and probably other professions are taking advantage of this pandemic to continue to get paid without doing their job.

A professor can easily tell his students to not get within 6 feet of him, to meet with them in a large room with enough social distancing if they need a one on one meeting, and of course there is always the online option.

It's going to be more challenging with more accomodations for sure that will be needed, but a professor saying "I'm scared to go to work" smacks of being a lazy pussy.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3236

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On 6/30/2020 at 4:56 PM, Js1 said:

ITS NOT THE PROTESTS CAUSING THE INCREASE.

I know this is hard for your pea sized brain to grasp but let me lay it out for you. 

a6574b4e-PSP-Car-Fire-Protests-2.jpg?ve=

These people went out to the protests and all stood within 6 inches of each other screaming and yelling all day every day for a week straight. Obviously covid spread among them. Then here is the real kicker that you are failing to grasp. They went out to all of the open restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. after the protests concluded and spread it to everyone else. Thus creating a spike. The states had been doing fine with reopening in the weeks prior. That is why you are seeing "open" states with the biggest spikes from the protests. I mean this is common sense my dude. 

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Js1

Js1 85336

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Amen, especially in college.  Lots of teachers from Kindergarten through college and probably other professions are taking advantage of this pandemic to continue to get paid without doing their job.

It's going to be more challenging with more accomodations for sure that will be needed, but a professor saying "I'm scared to go to work" smacks of being a lazy pussy.

spacer.png

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4th&Five

4th&Five 41550

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Just now, Message Board User said:

Amen, especially in college.  Lots of teachers from Kindergarten through college and probably other professions are taking advantage of this pandemic to continue to get paid without doing their job.

A professor can easily tell his students to not get within 6 feet of him, to meet with them in a large room with enough social distancing if they need a one on one meeting, and of course there is always the online option.

It's going to be more challenging with more accomodations for sure that will be needed, but a professor saying "I'm scared to go to work" smacks of being a lazy pussy.

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Have any friends at WVU? They appear to be forcing them to teach F2F while also including language in their contracts that they could furlough them or reduce their salary with 30 days notice.
We're talking about universities, not community colleges.
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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1762

Posted
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51 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
3 hours ago, MotownHorn said:
Have any friends at WVU? They appear to be forcing them to teach F2F while also including language in their contracts that they could furlough them or reduce their salary with 30 days notice.

We're talking about universities, not community colleges.

LOL fair point 

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8718

Posted
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2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I know this is hard for your pea sized brain to grasp but let me lay it out for you. 

a6574b4e-PSP-Car-Fire-Protests-2.jpg?ve=

These people went out to the protests and all stood within 6 inches of each other screaming and yelling all day every day for a week straight. Obviously covid spread among them. Then here is the real kicker that you are failing to grasp. They went out to all of the open restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. after the protests concluded and spread it to everyone else. Thus creating a spike. The states had been doing fine with reopening in the weeks prior. That is why you are seeing "open" states with the biggest spikes from the protests. I mean this is common sense my dude. 

No spikes in NY or DC (yet). I’m sure it’s coming, but the shit in TX, FL, and AZ is due to other factors as of right now 

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Sejjr

Sejjr 3246

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30 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

No spikes in NY or DC (yet). I’m sure it’s coming, but the shit in TX, FL, and AZ is due to other factors as of right now 

Yesterday in Los Angeles, while Mayor Garcetti was making his announcement telling people they were "still" prohibited from gathering in groups outside for everyone's safety, literally right outside City Hall a protest was happening with thousands of people. They closed the beaches, they closed down businesses again for a minimum of 3 weeks, and the public health director has even finally admitted that the protests contributed to the surge in postive cases. Yet these protests are permitted to continue, with more scheduled and more to come. This is the shit that is so frustrating. The protests contributed to this surge in LA. Of that, there is no doubt. Just fucking tell people that, tell them it was a worthy cause, and fucking encourage people to hold off on protesting for a bit...but they won't do that, for fear of offending people? This weak, confusing, and contradictory messaging does nothing to help this situation. 

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ousux

ousux 5597

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This is great except if ‘just’ 1-2 players die - yes that’s realistic - it would be considered an unmitigated disaster.  
True, but who's to say if they were back home (with less monitoring and worse healthcare) they wouldn't be in just as much if not more danger? Pinning any resulting deaths directly on the school/football program is dubious at best...just like anyone who says the protests certainly did or certainly did not contribute to the latest rona spikes..
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Goodman

Goodman 3273

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11 minutes ago, ousux said:
On 7/1/2020 at 9:42 AM, ChiTownDoc said:
This is great except if ‘just’ 1-2 players die - yes that’s realistic - it would be considered an unmitigated disaster.  

True, but who's to say if they were back home (with less monitoring and worse healthcare) they wouldn't be in just as much if not more danger? Pinning any resulting deaths directly on the school/football program is dubious at best...just like anyone who says the protests certainly did or certainly did not contribute to the latest rona spikes..

ouchidoc says it, if it's good enough for hundreds of doctors under his command or Northwestern... Just be glad he is taking time out of his busy schedule to post updates on surly, although they've been less frequent since he stuck his knee in his mouth. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

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22 minutes ago, ousux said:
On 7/1/2020 at 9:42 AM, ChiTownDoc said:
This is great except if ‘just’ 1-2 players die - yes that’s realistic - it would be considered an unmitigated disaster.  

True, but who's to say if they were back home (with less monitoring and worse healthcare) they wouldn't be in just as much if not more danger? Pinning any resulting deaths directly on the school/football program is dubious at best...just like anyone who says the protests certainly did or certainly did not contribute to the latest rona spikes..

I was responding to a post/article that suggested players should get it on purpose to get immunity.  That’s totally different from being careful but ending up getting it anyways.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Goodman said:

ouchidoc says it, if it's good enough for hundreds of doctors under his command or Northwestern... Just be glad he is taking time out of his busy schedule to post updates on surly, although they've been less frequent since he stuck his knee in his mouth. 

Lol wtf are you talking about?   There have been less frequent posts because here locally cases are fairly low.  We closed the Covid unit at UofC completely this week.   
You sound butthurt about something.  Wrong type of doc, sorry.  

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ousux

ousux 5597

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Posted
I have a bet with a friend about the 2020 football season. He thinks opening weekend games in Texas will be played as usual with 100% fan capacity allowed in stadiums. If that happens, he wins. If games are canceled or there are any fan capacity limits, I win.
Not really a bet I want to be right about, but I don't see any way that cases in Texas will magically reverse course in 2 months to allow this to happen. I'd love to be wrong.
He may get lucky and be right about the games, bold move including full capacity stadiums..
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George Clooney

George Clooney 378

Posted
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8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol wtf are you talking about?   There have been less frequent posts because here locally cases are fairly low.  We closed the Covid unit at UofC completely this week.   
You sound butthurt about something.  Wrong type of doc, sorry.  

He’s become probably the mostly cynical poster I’ve seen outside the CR. I think I saw him post last week that he thinks you aren’t actually a doctor or something along those lines.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, George Clooney said:

He’s become probably the mostly cynical poster I’ve seen outside the CR. I think I saw him post last week that he thinks you aren’t actually a doctor or something along those lines.

LOL, I didn't catch that.  He nailed it though...I've been playing doctor on here to act like a badass.  I gotta say...it feels fucking great.

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DougO

DougO 5247

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Posted
5 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I know this is hard for your pea sized brain to grasp but let me lay it out for you. 

a6574b4e-PSP-Car-Fire-Protests-2.jpg?ve=

These people went out to the protests and all stood within 6 inches of each other screaming and yelling all day every day for a week straight. Obviously covid spread among them. Then here is the real kicker that you are failing to grasp. They went out to all of the open restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. after the protests concluded and spread it to everyone else. Thus creating a spike. The states had been doing fine with reopening in the weeks prior. That is why you are seeing "open" states with the biggest spikes from the protests. I mean this is common sense my dude. 

Apparently, hatred kills the spores. I learned that on Star Trek.

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nnm

nnm 36405

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Posted (edited)

(Sorry for the long post—can’t do spoiler on mobile, and article is behind paywall so I’m using my subscription for y’all)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pre-season-workouts-provide-frightening-preview-for-colleges-11593698203?st=drafmp0g63fpwtk&reflink=article_copyURL_share

(Accompanying art is an embedded pic of a full DKR, vs BU, with caption “A view of Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.”  Also an 8-minute embedded video showing how virus spreads in a crowded stadium, with various soundbites, stressing proximity, aerosols, prolonged contact in a long game, and contaminated surfaces)

Preseason Workouts Provide Frightening Preview for Colleges
The number of positive tests for student-athletes has risen as schools decide whether students can return in the fall

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
By Laine Higgins............. and Melissa Korn.............

July 02, 2020 09:56 a.m. EDT
In re­cent weeks, uni­ver­si­ties across the coun­try have con­ducted an un­planned ex­per­i­ment on whether stu­dents can re­turn to cam­pus this fall, us­ing foot­ball play­ers and other ath­letes re­port­ing for vol­un­tary work­outs as guinea pigs.

It hasn’t gone very well.

The Uni­ver­sity of Texas at Austin had 13 stu­dent-ath­letes test pos­i­tive for Covid-19. At Lou­isiana State Uni­ver­sity, 30 play­ers—about a quar­ter of the foot­ball team—went into quar­an­tine af­ter some of them hit lo­cal bars. And the Uni­ver­sity of South Car­olina re­ported 79 new cases among stu­dents in a re­cent eight-day stretch, but won’t say whether ath­letes have been in­fected.

The trou­bling re­sults show how chal­leng­ing it will be to bring tens of thou­sands of young adults to­gether for the re­sump­tion of classes in a few weeks. Many play­ers who tested pos­i­tive for the virus showed no symp­toms. And in nu­mer­ous cases, stu­dents ig­nored pleas from ad­min­is­tra­tors to avoid crowds, con­tribut­ing to a rise in pos­i­tive tests.

“Stu­dents are go­ing to be re­turn­ing to par­ties, there are go­ing to be all sorts of things,” said Dr. Car­los Del Rio, an in­fec­tious dis­ease ex­pert at Emory Uni­ver­sity School of Med­i­cine. “As long as those things hap­pen you can do what­ever you want to test peo­ple, but peo­ple are go­ing to get in­fected.”

Del Rio serves on the NCAA’s Covid-19 ad­vi­sory panel and his in­put helped con­vince NCAA lead­ers to can­cel March Mad­ness. “We’re go­ing to need to do a lot of ed­u­ca-tion about the im­por­tance of re­main­ing neg­a­tive.”

Ac­cord­ing to Dr. Kyle Go­erl, the di­rec­tor of stu­dent health and team physi­cian at Kan­sas State Uni­ver­sity and chair of the Big 12 Con­fer­ence’s med­ical ad­vi­sory com­mit­tee, col­leges are not much dif­fer­ent from meat­pack­ing plants. “These are in­di­vid­u­als that live close to one an­other, they in­ter­act tightly on a daily ba­sis,” he said. “We knew we had to do our best to keep it out be­cause if it got in it was go­ing to move fast.”

That’s what hap­pened at Kan­sas State, where foot­ball play­ers be­gan re­turn­ing for vol­un­tary work­outs on June 15. Prior to en­ter­ing team fa­cil­i­ties, ath­letes were re­quired to self-iso­late for 14 days and re­ceive a neg­a­tive re­sult on what’s known as a PCR test, which in­volves a doc­tor stick­ing a swab up the nasal cav­ity. An ini­tial round of 89 PCR tests yielded zero in­fected Wild­cats.

“I was pretty fired up, we had zero at first,” said ath­letic di­rec­tor Gene Tay­lor. “Sure enough they [the ath­letes]…kind of for­got that they needed to wear a mask when they were hang­ing out with their bud­dies.”

Play­ers had gath­ered in small groups over the first week­end back. A hand­ful met for a round of videogames. An­other group drove to a play­er’s lake house. But some of the play­ers that so­cial­ized over the week­end hadn’t got­ten the re­sults back from the PCR tests they took on Fri­day, June 12.

By June 19 there were 14 cases, with 50 more play­ers po­ten­tially ex­posed to in­fected in­di­vid­u­als. Tay­lor shut down work­outs that Sat­ur­day, call­ing a pause un­til July 5. Sud-denly, the global pan­demic be­came very tan­gi­ble to dozens of young men in north­east Kan­sas.

“You have to treat your­self as pos­i­tive un­til you hear that you’re neg­a­tive. This is ul­ti­mately a hu­man be­hav­ior is­sue,” said Go­erl. He wor­ries that it’s go­ing to take play­ers see­ing a team­mate or coach get re­ally sick for that to hit home.

The sit­u­a­tion il­lus­trates a com­mon wrin­kle with coro­n­avirus test­ing: PCR tests don’t il­lu­mi­nate whether an in­di­vid­ual has been ex­posed to the virus in the time since their sam­ple was col­lected.

“Test­ing just tells you if in that mo­ment that guy is neg­a­tive, but doesn’t tell you what’s go­ing to hap­pen that evening,” said Del Rio.
Com­pli­cat­ing mat­ters is the lack of uni­ver­sal test­ing stan­dards from the NCAA or even within ma­jor con­fer-ences. In early May, the NCAA re­leased a broad set of best prac­tices, stress­ing fre­quent test­ing and am­ple space for self iso­la­tion. Those are sug­gestions, not rules, and uni­ver­si­ties have largely forged ahead with their own plans.

The Uni­ver­sity of Hous­ton only re­quired re­turn­ing ath­letes to un­dergo a phys­i­cal exam—no coro­n­avirus test­ing or self-iso­la­tion. Six did show symp­toms and later tested pos­i­tive, and the school shut down work­outs on June 12 as a re­sult. A spokes­woman said that the ath­letes’ Covid-19 re­sults “are in­for­ma­tive but also carry unique cir­cum­stances that do not ap­ply to uni­ver­sity as a whole.”
The ath­let­ics de­part­ment said it will now re­quire repet­i­tive Covid-19 test­ing as a com­po­nent of on-cam­pus work­outs.

But repet­i­tive test­ing for all won’t be the norm when other stu­dents re­turn to cam­pus in Au­gust. The school plans to uti­lize health screen­ings, tem­per­a­ture checks and self-as­sess-ments, and will urge those with Covid-19 symp­toms to see their pri­mary care physi­cians.
“Broad-based test­ing of our stu­dents and em­ploy­ees at the scale that would be re­quired to make it an ef­fec­tive mit­i­ga­tion strat­egy is cost pro­hibitive, and it’s in­con­ceiv­able that the uni­ver­sity could test all new en­trants to cam­pus,” spokes­woman Shawn Lind­sey said.

She noted that the school is still two months from the sched­uled start of classes, and has time to evolve its plans “as we get new in­for­ma­tion that is ac­tion­able.”
Some pub­lic health of­fi­cials have ques­tioned the ap­proach some schools are tak­ing, as they fo­cus on an­ti­body test­ing. LSU of­fi­cials said they chose to do an­ti­body tests be­cause they ques­tioned the re­li­a­bil­ity of swab tests. North Texas ad­min­is­tered swab tests only to those who tested pos­i­tive for coro­n­avirus an­ti­bod­ies, a strat­egy deemed “less in­va­sive,” per a spokesper­son. Del Rio said that no­tion is not valid, ex­plain­ing that an­ti­body tests re­veal past in­fec­tions but can­not mit­i­gate ex­ist­ing ones.

“An­ti­body test­ing would not be of any use, re­ally,” he said. “At this point you need to do PCR test­ing.”
Both LSU and North Texas had out­breaks. Al­most a quar­ter of the team went into quar­an­tine at LSU af­ter a hand­ful of play­ers con­tracted the virus on a trip to Ba­ton Rouge night­clubs. North Texas changed its test­ing pro­to­cols to ad­min­is­ter swab tests to all ath­letes and ath­letic de­part­ment per­son­nel af­ter find­ing three pos­i­tive cases in Den­ton.

“A novel coro­n­avirus is all new to us as well, so know­ing the ex­act right steps is ex­tremely chal­leng­ing,” said Go­erl. “We are writ­ing the play­book as we go here.”

Write to Laine Hig­gins at laine.hig-gins@wsj.­com and Melissa Korn at melis­sa.korn@wsj.­com  

(Edit:separate link to embedded video. Not sure if it’s behind a paywall: https://on.wsj.com/3bEITwo)

Edited by nnm
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, George Clooney said:

He’s become probably the mostly cynical poster I’ve seen outside the CR. I think I saw him post last week that he thinks you aren’t actually a doctor or something along those lines.

Does he think that you aren't actually George Clooney?

Edited by clapclapclap
I'm starting to wonder myself
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wood

wood 11225

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Posted
8 hours ago, Js1 said:

spacer.png

Seriously, this. WTF? 

Every teacher I know has worked their asses off during the pandemic. My wife (no pics) leading the way. She was working like 80 hours a week, up from her usual 65.

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