College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[SubliminalHorn 6787]

1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:

Problem for the schools is that will all the fans come back? The longer people get used to not having CFB, the harder it will be to get them back.

Probably not. Attendance was already dropping Pre-Covid. It's going to  be a much different Post-Covid world

[The_Great_Hornsby 3236]

6 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Probably not. Attendance was already dropping Pre-Covid. It's going to  be a much different Post-Covid world

I think college may recover for the bigger schools, but I bet NFL and the Minnesota/Vanderbilts of the world are gonna be hurt in a bad way. 

[South Austin 52499]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

I think we best prepare ourselves for spring college football. 

How will that work with the 2021 season? Will we cram two college football seasons into one calendar year? 

[Bartles 769]

If 10-20 percent are still in person classes, and presumably all students have access to those classes, that is plenty of wiggle room to have athletes on campus. You could legitimately argue sports would be safer that way than cramming them into spring when everybody comes back to campus (maybe). But I don't think the commissioners are crazy enough to make than announcement unless the hotspots level off noticeably in the next week.

If they play in spring, it sounds like everybody realizes you're gonna lose most of the NFL quality guys. They would also probably have to reduce the schedule to 8-10 games. I think it could work...throws the CFP race a little more open, and gives fringe NFL prospects a chance to make an impression. 

[Burt Macklin 19024]

12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

How will that work with the 2021 season? Will we cram two college football seasons into one calendar year? 

You should probably ask your mom. I hear she’s an expert on cramming two things into one slot. 

[SubliminalHorn 6787]

14 minutes ago, South Austin said:

How will that work with the 2021 season? Will we cram two college football seasons into one calendar year? 

I posted about this a while back. I don't see how we cram two season together within 3 months of each other with one ending and one beginning. Injury concerns alone makes this not very likely. Maybe we just get used to football being a spring sport? January-February games would sure suck in northern states.

[Telegraph_it 3357]

48 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Probably not. Attendance was already dropping Pre-Covid. It's going to  be a much different Post-Covid world

This will be interesting to see. I know if there is CFB this year I will not be attending any games in person. 

At least COVID is making things equitable in my house. I don't think they were able to film any new seasons of the bachelor(ette). 

[Goodman 3273]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Probably not. Attendance was already dropping Pre-Covid. It's going to  be a much different Post-Covid world

I gave up my seats this year but if a fall season does take place, I'll make the call and be there. 

[Red Five 40858]

I posted about this a while back. I don't see how we cram two season together within 3 months of each other with one ending and one beginning. Injury concerns alone makes this not very likely. Maybe we just get used to football being a spring sport? January-February games would sure suck in northern states.

I’m thinking the 2021 season would have a late start, in Oct or Nov. Then by 2022 we’d be back on track.

[gmr548 16580]

Probably not. Attendance was already dropping Pre-Covid. It's going to  be a much different Post-Covid world

I think once COVID is no longer a threat on people's minds they're not going to be scared of football games. People are what they are. The kind of person that wants to attend CFB games is going to do it when they feel it's safe to do so. The same downward attendance trends will exist, and they'll be exacerbated sgort term due to general economic downturn, but I'm not sure it's going to change people's behavior when it comes to sporting events in the long term. Americans like sports.

I’m thinking the 2021 season would have a late start, in Oct or Nov. Then by 2022 we’d be back on track.

I tend to think they'd just bite the bullet and restart at a normal fall schedule. Maybe extend the RS rule to six regular season games plus bowl.

But they could just start it when basketball starts like you mention.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

I think we best prepare ourselves for spring college football. 

It’s not my ideal scenario because college football is meant for fall..but March madness+ conference championships or college football playoff games on the same day would make up for 2020

[David Dennison 18860]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s not my ideal scenario because college football is meant for fall..but March madness+ conference championships or college football playoff games on the same day would make up for 2020

A whole bunch of NFL bound talent would not play, so that would be a bummer.

[Neonmoon 38129]

If college football doesn’t happen, what college athletic departments can survive financially?

[Bartles 769]

The entire P5 and most likely all of FBS would be back for the 2021 season assuming it starts on time. There are all kinds of gloomy projections, and I'm sure there's good evidence for those, but the guys in charge are no strangers to getting money when they need it. And unlike some industries, college football is a proven profit center which won't change after COVID-19.

[gmr548 16580]

29 minutes ago, Bartles said:

The entire P5 and most likely all of FBS would be back for the 2021 season assuming it starts on time. There are all kinds of gloomy projections, and I'm sure there's good evidence for those, but the guys in charge are no strangers to getting money when they need it. And unlike some industries, college football is a proven profit center which won't change after COVID-19.

Football is a money-loser for all but top-tier programs. Do agree that most will find the strings to pull to get back on the field. Or maybe they won't. And that's fine honestly.

Edited July 4, 2020 by gmr548

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

12 hours ago, mdmost said:

I think we best prepare ourselves for spring college football. 

aggy's spring football undefeated streak will come to an end

[horngasm2020 116]

just give me a new college football game for PC and I won't even give a flying fuck about anything. cancel the season. who cares.

[ousux 5597]

I posted about this a while back. I don't see how we cram two season together within 3 months of each other with one ending and one beginning. Injury concerns alone makes this not very likely. Maybe we just get used to football being a spring sport? January-February games would sure suck in northern states.

It would only be a one time thing (hopefully) not completely undoable..

[Ten Bears 2481]

If they switch to spring football, and covid goes away somehow, then what do they do next fall?  You can't expect them to play 2 seasons in one year, right?  I guess maybe they could if both seasons were shortened. idk

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

I could get on board with a football season that started in late February and wrapped up around Memorial Day.

March football in Ames would be wild, and I could actually go.  You would have equal likelihood of raging blizzard or 75 degrees and sunny.

[Extra Anejo 99]

I think spring football would suck, especially if the NFL did it too. Combining NFL, NBA, NCAAB, and NCAAF all into the same time period would make all the above less entertaining. Plus there's the start-up of MLB to factor in. Too many choices for fans.

[Royalfan5 2354]

24 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I could get on board with a football season that started in late February and wrapped up around Memorial Day.

March football in Ames would be wild, and I could actually go.  You would have equal likelihood of raging blizzard or 75 degrees and sunny.

Plus spring snow is more likely to be heavy and wet vs. dry fall snow for extra fun

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

Plus spring snow is more likely to be heavy and wet vs. dry fall snow for extra fun

8” of concrete from the sky. That would be wild

[ChickenSandwich 9836]

13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Football is a money-loser for all but top-tier programs. Do agree that most will find the strings to pull to get back on the field. Or maybe they won't. And that's fine honestly.

Is it a money loser (football - singular or total athletic department?) or is it in the accounting?  Does football alone make enough to cover themselves if they are not burdened with funding all other sports both male and female?
 

How many football programs actually spend more than they bring in?  I’ve seen the lists that show few athletic departments pull a profit, but most of those are based on the entire athletic department. 
 

I have no idea. 

[Duval Street 420]

Texas/ou with no Fair atmosphere would be...interesting.

[Big Frog II 511]

I would imagine football for most P5 teams is a money maker because of TV rights as well as ticket/suite/club seat sales.  The other sports depend on football revenue to survive.

[Burt Macklin 19024]

13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Football is a money-loser for all but top-tier programs. Do agree that most will find the strings to pull to get back on the field. Or maybe they won't. And that's fine honestly.

I don’t think that’s accurate for football only, plus a lot of the costs, like scholarships, coaching salaries, etc. will still be incurred, so the schools need the revenue desperately, especially with potentially decreased tuition income. 

[TreatyOak 16327]

On 7/1/2020 at 11:01 PM, mdleast said:

What starts here...

[gmr548 16580]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Is it a money loser (football - singular or total athletic department?) or is it in the accounting?  Does football alone make enough to cover themselves if they are not burdened with funding all other sports both male and female?
 

How many football programs actually spend more than they bring in?  I’ve seen the lists that show few athletic departments pull a profit, but most of those are based on the entire athletic department. 
 

I have no idea. 

 

1 hour ago, Big Frog II said:

I would imagine football for most P5 teams is a money maker because of TV rights as well as ticket/suite/club seat sales.  The other sports depend on football revenue to survive.

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

I don’t think that’s accurate for football only, plus a lot of the costs, like scholarships, coaching salaries, etc. will still be incurred, so the schools need the revenue desperately, especially with potentially decreased tuition income. 

Looking into this more now and it does look like I was wrong - thinking about athletics programs at large. Data for football specifically is harder to find but it would seem like the comment about P5 football programs generally being profitable is correct. Lesser D1 programs more like breakeven or slightly profitable, but certainly not enough to bankroll the AD. What I would be curious to see, and I am not sure is available, is how many football programs are profitable when student fees are removed. Those prop up a lot of athletic departments (did an analysis of this in college). I'd think those are disproportionately associated with football given the infrastructure involved, but that is just a hunch.

In general I agree with @Burt Macklin. The only thing financially worse for an AD than operating at a loss with football is losing all of that football revenue but being on the hook for existing financial commitments. That's why I think most will find a way to keep it going post COVID.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2018/10/18/the-most-profitable-college-football-programs.html

https://college.lovetoknow.com/campus-life/does-college-football-make-money

1 hour ago, Duval Street said:

Texas/ou with no Fair atmosphere would be...interesting.

If by interesting you mean fucking suck.

 

 

[Bartles 769]

One thing I don't see a lot of reporting on is what's to be done with other fall sports if campuses are able to open. If I was an AD, I would be lobbying to shift damn near everything except FB to the spring. Maybe soccer is OK, and cross country, if you can get enough COVID tests for everyone.

But volleyball and maybe even basketball should be flexible enough to back their schedules up. Any pre-January activity by other large-roster sports (baseball, softball, swimming) could be delayed too. And I never understood why indoor track exists anyway.

Besides student/staff safety, there is a cost issue with the amount of tests that would be needed. I'm sure there would be an uproar about special treatment, but as the last few posts point out...

[Bartles 769]

Not a word about football in this longish twitter thread, but it's a stark explanation of how colleges in general are pretty fucked if the virus situation doesn't improve dramatically asap

 

[927 E. 41st 1124]

8 hours ago, Extra Anejo said:

I think spring football would suck, especially if the NFL did it too. Combining NFL, NBA, NCAAB, and NCAAF all into the same time period would make all the above less entertaining. Plus there's the start-up of MLB to factor in. Too many choices for fans.

For a lot of us it wouldn't be a problem, I'd watch what I wanted, record the 2nd favorite and skip the rest.

[bullet 1597]

On 7/3/2020 at 2:41 PM, SubliminalHorn said:

I posted about this a while back. I don't see how we cram two season together within 3 months of each other with one ending and one beginning. Injury concerns alone makes this not very likely. Maybe we just get used to football being a spring sport? January-February games would sure suck in northern states.

Spring football.  Fall football.  We do it now.  Just not as long.

[bullet 1597]

6 hours ago, Bartles said:

One thing I don't see a lot of reporting on is what's to be done with other fall sports if campuses are able to open. If I was an AD, I would be lobbying to shift damn near everything except FB to the spring. Maybe soccer is OK, and cross country, if you can get enough COVID tests for everyone.

But volleyball and maybe even basketball should be flexible enough to back their schedules up. Any pre-January activity by other large-roster sports (baseball, softball, swimming) could be delayed too. And I never understood why indoor track exists anyway.

Besides student/staff safety, there is a cost issue with the amount of tests that would be needed. I'm sure there would be an uproar about special treatment, but as the last few posts point out...

Yes.  Other than dual sports athletes and cross-country, there's no reason the rest couldn't be in the spring.  And cross-country is about the most socially distanced sport out there.  Maybe tennis where you've got a net!

[achooloco 1072]

13 hours ago, Extra Anejo said:

I think spring football would suck, especially if the NFL did it too. Combining NFL, NBA, NCAAB, and NCAAF all into the same time period would make all the above less entertaining. Plus there's the start-up of MLB to factor in. Too many choices for fans.

love your avatar but respectfully disagree. first off, not sure they'd push the nfl season that late. second, wknds with marquee NBA games on Friday and Sunday nights, full set of NCAAF games on Saturday, with mixed in NCAAB would be bad ass.

If you did add in the NFL, coupled with the lead up to the NBA playoffs and March Madness, you'd have some epic betting, drinking, partying days and nights; thursday evening to Sunday night would be around 72 hours of straight sports insanity. After losing a year's worth of holidays, i think people would gladly rage every wknd in the spring to summer. Easily. Especially if this 4th of July is any indication; people here have a tiny taste of security from the Bug and its fucking pandemonium.

Edited July 5, 2020 by achooloco

[ousux 5597]

Texas/ou with no Fair atmosphere would be...a fucking abomination

Fifm

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

On 7/2/2020 at 11:29 PM, wood said:

My wife (no pics) leading the way. She was working like 80 hours a week, up from her usual 65.

I’m trying to figure out what an increase prostitution work hours has to do with defending teachers’ work ethic.

[gmr548 16580]

2 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

I’m trying to figure out what an increase prostitution work hours has to do with defending teachers’ work ethic.

She makes you pay?

[wood 11225]

8 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

I’m trying to figure out what an increase prostitution work hours has to do with defending teachers’ work ethic.

I dunno. You should probably ask your mom.

[CDAK 216]

Whenever someone tells you the number of hours they work, you should discount by somewhere between 10-25%. Well, at least for lawyers. 

[cochamps 1879]

1 hour ago, CDAK said:

Whenever someone tells you the number of hours they work, you should discount by somewhere between 10-25%. Well, at least for lawyers. 

25-35% for lawyers, 10-25% for people.

[usmc0331horn 953]

2 hours ago, CDAK said:

Whenever someone tells you the number of hours they work, you should discount by somewhere between 10-25%. Well, at least for lawyers. 

As well as time spend on here which is like 90% of their workday.

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

1 hour ago, cochamps said:

25-35% for lawyers, 10-25% for people.

45-55% for lawyers, 65-85% for most jobs.

Don't fool yourself.  Most jobs can be accomplished in half the time billed.  If unable to hit that mark, PICNIC.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

2 hours ago, cochamps said:

25-35% for lawyers, 10-25% for people.

How about government jobs?

[Don Johnson 4753]

 

•  

  Quote

   

  • College football's biggest ally throughout the coronavirus pandemic had been time. COVID-19 struck in the offseason.

    Spring practice was impacted, sure, but there was still five months until the start of the season. Plenty of time, they said, to figure out testing. Likewise, plenty of time to get players back on campus and to consider what a 2020 season would look like.  

    The game's stakeholders had the time to figure all of it out. That's not the case anymore.

    Time? College football is running out of it, at least if it plans to kick off the 2020 season as scheduled.

     

     

    We are 53 days away from Week 0. Aug. 29 is in 7 ½ weeks. Required summer workouts could begin for some teams as soon as this week. For those kicking off Labor Day weekend in the traditional Week 1, preseason camp begins in less than a month, on or about Aug. 7.

    Suddenly, time has gone from ally to an unblocked blitzing linebacker.

    July is likely the month we'll know whether there will be some form of a season this fall. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey recently said it is "probably a late-July time period" for a decision.

  • COVID-19 cases have risen in at least 36 states. Not surprisingly, there continues to be a lack of consensus to willfully adopt mask wearing nationwide.
  • At least six FBS programs -- including last season's championship finalists (LSU, Clemson) -- have shut down workouts due to positive outbreaks. Meanwhile, there is still no uniform testing protocol. Perhaps more concerning: Almost half of the 130 FBS schools aren't revealing numbers of positive tests.
  • Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott said Friday the 2020 season "is a lot more perilous than it was a few weeks ago" if the coronavirus isn't slowed.
  • The Ivy League will announce its fall sports plan on Wednesday. Forbes Magazine reported there is a 98% chance football will be moved to the spring.
  • Division II Morehouse College has canceled its season. At least three Division III schools have done the same.
  • Four games featuring historically-black university programs (HBCUs) have been canceled.
  • The FCS Patriot League is making "rare exceptions" for overnight road trips. That could impact several nonconference games for FBS teams. 
  • In fact, two games involving FBS programs -- Navy vs. Lafayette on Sept. 12 and Western Michigan vs. Colgate on Sept. 4 -- have already been canceled. (WMU has since found Stony Brook as a replacement.)

  • You see where this is trending. Time is suddenly the enemy.

    Spring football in 2021 is becoming more likely by the minute, but even that has its problems.

    The NFL is reportedly uninterested in accommodating college football by delaying its 2021 draft if the season has to be pushed back a few months. That could mean certain seniors and draft-eligible juniors may not end up playing a final year of college ball, which would clearly affect the national championship race.

    "I hope like hell we can play in the fall," Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said Friday. "… But we've seen hot weather doesn't affect [COVID-19] very much. We've heard reports from some our nation's medical leaders. There's potentially a chance for a vaccine by late this year or early next year.

    "To me, it becomes, do you think [spring football is] doable? I personally do."

    Penn State athletic director Sandy Barbour last week called a spring season "a last resort." That was always the case. College football doesn't lend itself to being a movable feast on the calendar.

    Texas at LSU during Mardi Gras? "College GameDay" in the snow? Spring football during what should be spring practice?

    Without that last resort, college athletics enters some sort of nuclear winter. Without football revenue, certain schools would drop even more sports and perhaps stop playing football altogether.

    Football provides 80% of the revenue for the average FBS budget. Given the growing and dire collegiate budget crisis already in play, perhaps schools themselves would fold.

     

     

    Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard called the prospect of no football "an ice age. I don't know how any of us, how the current NCAA model, could survive if we're not playing any football games."

    So we'll likely know soon whether to buy parkas. Whether the NBA, MLB and NHL are able to launch in some form by the end of the month will be a key indicator.

    By then, college football will be able to determine how the pros manage playing actual games amid the coronavirus. By then, the sport will have to make a decision whether it's even safe for players to practice while swapping sweat and making physical contact.

     

     

    Basically, the antithesis of avoiding COVID-19.

    If that can't happen, the season won't start on time, if at all.

    "At some point, we're actually going to have to get out and practice football," Riley said. "If you can't contain [the coronavirus] within your own team, it's going to be hard to justify going and playing somebody else."

    We've said it before: Riley has been a sage through these troubled times. He has thought deeply about a spring season.

    "I think the people who say it's not doable, in my opinion, just don't want to think about it," Riley said. "I think it would be wrong of us to take any potential option off the table. Spring is very doable."

     

     

    Sankey said there are "18-20" scenarios out there for squeezing in the season. College leaders are willing to play without fans, perhaps without students on campus.

    A late start is possible. As is two-semester football. Could we see the Rose Bowl on Memorial Day?

    We already know the 10 FBS conferences are willing to go forward without universal participation. Within those conferences, all the teams may not play or some may be forced to play a limited schedule.

     

     

    Unlike the pros, college players can't negotiate their working conditions. They're not compensated. It's worth asking: What exactly is it about this desperation to play that is tethered to education?

    The road ahead is full of switchbacks. The commissioners' and athletic directors' desperation for getting a piece of the TV rights revenue is obvious. That's a big reason they're willing to play in the spring.

    It's not just the pandemic. They'll have do it amid an ongoing social justice awakening, record unemployment and a declining economy.

     

     

    All of it must be taken into account when restarting football. The players want to play, too, but with newfound leverage. Players from Oklahoma State to Illinois have shown they're going to have a voice in the uneasy attempt to mine some of that TV revenue.

    "How can a team full of 100+ student athletes fully function during a pandemic," Illinois linebacker Milo Eifler tweeted. "My teammates and I want to play. But schools around the country are showing blatant disregard for student athletes."

    Players absolutely cannot be perceived as human shields or mercenaries to get at that money.

    "We're not just throwing them out there and hoping," Riley said.

    Mix that thought in with a big concern of college health professionals: Players will actually hide COVID-19 symptoms to remain on the field. 

    It is unlikely stars such as Trevor Lawrence would even play in the spring. For the projected No. 1 overall pick, there wouldn't be much of a choice between risking a season- or career-ending injury vs. a $40 million paycheck, particularly if the 2021 NFL Draft occurs during a spring season as opposed to after it.

    Then there would the uncomfortable TV renegotiations. The rights holders didn't pay top dollar so college football would go head-to-head with major professional sports in the spring.

    Fall Saturdays are carved out for college football, not Easter weekend.

    There is another student-athlete welfare issue. How weird would it be, two years after celebrating college football's 150th anniversary, for stakeholders to shoehorn two seasons into college football's 152nd season in 2021.

    The obstacles continue to pile up. The stakeholders seem willing to take them on one at a time.

    There is hope testing will become more frequent. There is optimism outbreaks can be contained with thousands upon thousands of students returning to campus next month.

    There is the belief a spring season will be always be there as a last resort.   

    Next Sunday marks four months since the sports world shut down. When it will open up fully again is a mystery.

    There is one certainty: College football is running out of time.

   

   

[Don Johnson 4753]

 

[GHOSTUSER 361]

5 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

 

LOL. You’d be stupid as either a parent or student to accept online education at a $75k per year price tag. Defer admission and take a gap semester/year. 

[4th&Five 41550]

 

[Valmy77 13226]

1 minute ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

LOL. You’d be stupid as either a parent or student to accept online education at a $75k per year price tag. Defer admission and take a gap semester/year. 

I was thinking the same thing. An online education is not what you go to Harvard for. You might as well go to Arizona State.