College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Trey3216 15379]

1 minute ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

I have a policy of not negging any post simply for having a different opinion than me, other than an obvious troll asking for it, but if I had a different set of standards this would be a neg for the obvious lack of critical thought and the ad hominem fallacy. 

I don't neg much either, for very similar reasons.  However, Fletch decided to stroll through and neg a bunch of posts responding to him, so I returned the favor out of principle.  

[TrashMaster G 17648]

2 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

I have a policy of not negging any post simply for having a different opinion than me, other than an obvious troll asking for it, but if I had a different set of standards this would be a neg for the obvious lack of critical thought and the ad hominem fallacy. 

I don't neg the opinion.  I neg the douchenozzle manner in which it is expressed.

[crimsonlonghorn 2309]

Just now, TrashMaster G said:

I don't neg the opinion.  I neg the douchenozzle manner in which it is expressed.

Ken Jeong . gif

[TexArcher 38081]

46 minutes ago, Fletch said:

You guys are so fucked in the head it’s truly astonishing. Putting lives at risk so we can watch a fucking kids game. Some of y’all really should’ve ended up at aggy. Would’ve fit in much better 

Your mama's an aggy.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

3 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Ken Jeong . gif

We gonna kill him with fire?

[4th&Five 41606]

 

[South Austin 52636]

40 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Fletch seems a bit dramatic today

He must have had his wages garnish-eed.

[kopp0e 1135]

50 minutes ago, Fletch said:

You guys are so fucked in the head it’s truly astonishing. Putting lives at risk so we can watch a fucking kids game. Some of y’all really should’ve ended up at aggy. Would’ve fit in much better 

I have yet to see ESPN or FS1 broadcast a Pee-Wee football game on a Saturday night in prime-time, carry on...

[ztejas 43552]

6 hours ago, JFKFC said:

Lots of recent weeks in the 6000s and 5000s. Not much fluff.

That's literally what fluffing numbers is. 

 

[TexArcher 38081]

4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

God damn, that sucks.  Hope he's able to recover 100% eventually.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

[ztejas 43552]

Fletch went to Westlake. Cut him some slack.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Fletch went to Westlake. Cut him some slack.

Shots.  They’ve been fired.  

[ztejas 43552]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Shots.  They’ve been fired.  

He kept dming me last year talking shit about Austin High football. Like I follow the games or something. 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

4 hours ago, kopp0e said:

I don't think XII (for example) has a "horrific contract) but maybe XII works with ESPN to poach PAC brands..?

XII can be appealing to PAC brands as USC (CFB blueblood) Arizona/ Arizona State/ Utah (similar to XII states), Colorado (old foe)...

The Pac deal is actually one of the newest where everything went to bid at the same time.  I'd wager it is market for their ratings.  They skimmed more inventory off for the PACN so that's about where they could go get more.   Even selling 6 more conference games could add $2-4m per team to their contract.

B12's contract isn't bad, but it isn't good.   It was able to keep it pretty even by going from 8 to 9 conference games when shit went south (conference games are worth several magnitudes more than non-con). The T2/3 deals are close to market as they were able to renegotiate them a few years back, but their T1 deal is very old and very under priced.   The fact that they're still within swinging distance of the SEC is a pretty good sign.  The Big Ten's massive jump had a lot to do with being able to get a new T1 deal, on a short contract (less risk, higher price) and add an additional conference game to the mix.   The SEC could do this as well, by going to 9 conference games, but has chosen not to.   Their deal with CBS is up in 2023, so expect that.  

This is probably more of a topic for the realignment thread, but if they could add any P5 school and stay 9 conference games or more (the SEC is ten this year, I think we're going to see more of this than less in the future because they'll figure out it makes more money, even at the risk of less championships) they'll increase on par with everyone else.  (E.g. Arkansas, Arizonas, etc)  If they add someone who has even a shred of cache like Texas and Oklahoma, they'll become a power broker instead of just keeping pace.   (E.g. USC or even Nebraska)

On a side note, and assuming all things stay healthy and don't shit the bed, the Big Ten gave a gift to the SEC this year.   If the SEC was forced to go to ten conference games, in a packed P5, they'll be out of the lime light a bit as they'll have a lot more losses than their normal 8 game schedule.   However, with two P5s gone, they not only will steal the narrative and get credit for that, but they'll also place more teams into the playoffs, with more loses, than if the Big Ten was playing.   

 

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

Just now, ztejas said:

He kept dming me last year talking shit about Austin High football. Like I follow the games or something. 

Lol.  That’s pretty funny.  Did you tell him you were fucking all state?  ALL STATE bro!!!

[BrazilHorn 6637]

Here is some mortality data. Will work to add more applicable age groups as it seems that everyone reports it differently (in terms of age group buckets they use)

Travis County - 10 - 19 years old: 0.05% Mortality Rate, 20-29: 0.03% Mortality Rate (As of 8/15 - Travis County runs week in appears)

49 states + NYC (from American Academy of Pediatricians & Children's Hospital Association) - This report uses a 0-18 to 20  age range (depending on state) - The mortality rate this report shows is 0.02% - The highest rate for any state is 0.03% and 20 states have had zero child deaths.

https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 8.13.20 FINAL v2.pdf

The CDC as of 8/19 for the 18-29 age group shows a total # of deaths from CV19 of 644. Cases are 862,203. Mortality Rate for the 18-29 age group is 0.07%. This data set is incomplete in aggregate as I think some cases are excluded as they don't have age captured. But it is directional.

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographics

There are as I mention a number of ways that people are reporting the age groups mortality information but none of them, whichever you choose to use go above 1%. Most are well below.

I would also argue that there have been ZERO studies done of mortality rate of truly physically fit young people (such as football players) whereas there was a report released last week in the Annals of Internal Medicine that shows absolutely that BMI scores >30 (and especially 40+) cause between ~2x to 12x (30 - 45BMI spread) likelihood of dying from CV19.

I am not advocating for playing. I will say though that the data (ONLY in terms of mortality) shows a very low chance of a player dying. That is NOT to say there couldn't be other long term impacts to player health and safety. I would argue though that if you are having students on campus in any form you have already thrown that concern out the window.

The point I would make is I do believe that players at Tier1 schools that can afford rapid testing and top flight care have their players in a much better spot than a typical student.

The argument to me is not whether or not you play football but to me it is do you allow schools to be open at all. Blaming football for "killing kids with CV19" to me is a specious argument at best. Blaming schools for trying and maintain exorbitant tuition and fees is the bigger discussion IMO.

tl:dr - data shows CV19 really doesn't kill young people, but we don't know if it fucks them up, also issue isn't in playing football but in opening schools at all

 

 

[Eskimohorn 5644]

Yeah but none of the high school kids can stay back, unless you were talking about the kids in Louisiana...

I think you missed my point. But perhaps trying to make humor out of both the Golden State killer and Penn State rape enabling, and word play with the Warriors on a thread about whether or not college football, was a bridge too far.

To my point, when college sports makes unethical decisions that hurt people and communities (Baylor, Penn St, Michigan St) at some point point, it will degrade their value and they’ll become targets, lose fans, lose credibility.

[Tigersnake 670]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

He must have had his wages garnish-eed.

Not sure what's wrong with Fletch but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say a problem with his Fetzer valve or ball bearings.

 

['stache 21892]

31 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

(I know you’re not replying to my old posts...But I wanna distance myself from the we all dead crowd.)

 

Totally agree. My only issue was with those matter of factly stating nobody would die.  And I still think paid pros vs unpaid college kids getting exposed is different.  The coaches are paid really well so they can decide if they wanna take on the risk imo.  Conferences are likely more scared of players organizing vs player safety if you look at their history of ‘caring’ for players.  

I agree with all of this, especially the college vs pro comparison. Pro players are more than well compensated for their risks. College on paper is a game for kids to play as amateurs, but we all know it's big business now. There is something fundamentally uncomfortable with exposing them to these risks to avoid massive financial losses when the players weren't going to be getting any of those profits to begin with. If the games are played I hope that maybe there will be a fundamental change in how we view "student athletes" and I hope they manage to get themselves some of the profits. You can tell from the building booms and over the top facilities and outrageous coaching salaries that schools are looking for any way to spend those profits without sharing with the players.

Edited August 20, 2020 by 'stache

[nnm 36694]

8 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

 

I think you missed my point. But perhaps trying to make humor out of both the Golden State killer and Penn State rape enabling, and word play with the Warriors on a thread about whether or not college football, was a bridge too far.

To my point, when college sports makes unethical decisions that hurt people and communities (Baylor, Penn St, Michigan St) at some point point, it will degrade their value and they’ll become targets, lose fans, lose credibility.

 

Except that BU and Penn St (can’t speak to MichSU) don’t appear to have lost any fans. If anything, their hard core fans solidified more with an “they’re jealous of our success” siege mentality. The cult of JoPa and the cult of Briles are awfully similar. 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

 

[kopp0e 1135]

A view from inside the B1G footprint:

 

[kopp0e 1135]

What the college football season feels like (at the moment):

[GreenspointTexas 9689]

58 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Cmon 'ballgame' boy.   This stat you started your post with is bullshit and you know it.  The CDC estimates only 10% of actual cases are actually "known" so your math is already completely fucked.  Then, as you are also well aware unless you are just a fucking idiot, the death rate for those in the 18-22 range is virtually zero.   So, your conclusion, as it relates to players at least, is flat out false.   The likelihood of any college football player dying from COVID is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY.     But let's go a step further, do you think a college football player is more likely to become infected with COVID in a structured program with football responsibilities where those they spend 90% of their time with are being tested 3X per week or are they more likely to get it learning virtually like the rest of the students but with a shit load of free time?  Because I'm sure 18-22 shelter in place on the reg, right?   In sum, this post, like just about everything you post, is fucking idiotic.  I swear some people have flat out lost the ability to critically analyze risk.  And I'm talking about educated college football writers.  Not morons like Greenspoint.   I think my posting history in the COVID threads speaks for itself as I've taken this very seriously.  But posters like you that have zero ability to stratify risks based on the data drive me crazy.

If you want to talk about the risk for coaches that's a completely different discussion.   I think coaches/staff should absolutely be able to opt out if they wish without penalty (just like players can).  Per CDC, the risk of death is 10X higher for those 40-49 (compared to under 30), 30X higher once you hit 50 and 90X higher once you hit 65.  Coaches and staff are those most at risk from having a football season.  Of course, unless they are electing to shelter in place, I'm not sure they are increasing their risk of catching the disease much given the protocols in place.

Re-read my post u jackass. Also, I think we can all assume that there will be some deaths due to COVID in college football. Thats what my post was inferring. If you didnt have the reading comprehension of a 5th grader, you’d get it.

 

Ill state it differently, for someone with a baby brain likes yours: Is playing football this fall safer than not playing football? Will people die that otherwise will have lived if we do play football?

 

Those are what we should really be debating because there is no right answer. Its football. Its not like they are essential employees. These are kids lives. If even one kid dies from covid related to college football being played, are we all at fault for wanting to see kids play a sport?

[GreenspointTexas 9689]

59 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Dude. That's some highly dishonest math and you know it. Absolutely this virus is dangerous. But to just outright manipulate numbers in order to make a BS argument is, well, BS. Show the stats for the actually relevant age class to this discussion.

The “age class” of college football players, fans, coaches, refs, managers, personnel, families, girlfriends etc is everyone.

 

You do realize that playing college football without bubbling increases spread between all of those groups, right?

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

18 hours ago, Doc Reeves said:

Look man, I like you as a poster and agree with you way more that I disagree.

ill say that -for me- the process has seemed rushed and obviously seriously lacked leadership. There is absolutely NO acceptable body count for any sport. That’s not me, that’s the literal process of existing in our US society.
 

We can respectfully agree to disagree and leave it at that.

We have people die playing football every year. If unacceptable body count is 1 for you then why do you watch?  

[GRHorn 105]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We have people die playing football every year. If unacceptable body count is 1 for you then why do you watch?  

Ballgame

[Hagbard Celine 10938]

that guy looks like a young paul giamatti....

here are the rosenrosens on the hospital dir

here they are in typed order for easy viewing:

Rosenaur

Rosenbach

Rosenbaum

Rosenberg

Rosenstone

Rosenfield

Rosendahl

Rosengeld

Rosenschweid

Rosenkel

Rosenfeld

Rosenwill

Rosenveld

Rosenthal

Rosenblatt

Rosenkunz

 

and here are the suffixes by alpha:

bach

baum

berg

blatt

dahl

feld

field

geld

kel

kunz

naur

schweid

stone

thal

veld

will

[Skipper 6210]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

I don't neg the opinion.  I neg the douchenozzle manner in which it is expressed.

I neg because he seems like a dumbass I hope gets his feelings hurt and leaves this board.  I mean imagine if we all would have negged Greenspoint early on when it was clear he was a nutjob.

[TrashMaster G 17648]

3 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Right now, death rate of known cases is still over 3%
 

If it is even 1%, thats 16-17 dead players assuming normal stats (which in this case, nothing is normal). Now, these players are more fit (on the whole) than the average american, but a shit load of them are overweight and have sleep apnea and decreased lung reserves. Also, a lot of them are black (which, studies are showing the virus having worse effects on black people). 
 

Now, to confound everything further, the average college footballer has better than average healthcare than other americans and increased testing. So in the end, it could be a wash.

 

tldr: Who knows what will happen. We may play fall football without a single hiccup. We also may get 1 game in and cancel the season. But to say that no one in college football (players, coaches, managers, etc) will die from this is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. 

 

26 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Re-read my post u jackass. Also, I think we can all assume that there will be some deaths due to COVID in college football. Thats what my post was inferring. If you didnt have the reading comprehension of a 5th grader, you’d get it.

 

Ill state it differently, for someone with a baby brain likes yours: Is playing football this fall safer than not playing football? Will people die that otherwise will have lived if we do play football?

 

Those are what we should really be debating because there is no right answer. Its football. Its not like they are essential employees. These are kids lives. If even one kid dies from covid related to college football being played, are we all at fault for wanting to see kids play a sport?

 

24 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The “age class” of college football players, fans, coaches, refs, managers, personnel, families, girlfriends etc is everyone.

 

You do realize that playing college football without bubbling increases spread between all of those groups, right?

I sense an attempt to move the goalposts.

[Revolution512 1495]

Haha he was obviously wrong and should give up. It’s embarrassing.

I’m pretty sure he put the stats together for Herman’s 4th down binder.

[DenverHorn 56]

5 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

The 7 day rolling average for deaths/day in the US yesterday was 1030. It’s been > 1000 since late July.

A month ago on July 20, there were 144,300 deaths. There are now 176,300 deaths.

That’s 32,000 people over the last month that died.

Not fluffing the #’s at all.

Have some reality, fresh out of your own kitchen the CDC.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Doc Reeves 6434]

24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We have people die playing football every year. If unacceptable body count is 1 for you then why do you watch?  

That’s a bit much. I (and I’ll venture to say most people) don’t watch to see people die. 

I will say that “acceptable losses” are for the military. That’s a good thing and a lot of good Americans died making it that way.  

[HtownHorn 14793]

20 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

CBS, affiliated with the SEC, giving it to the Big Ten

Only for a few more seasons. CBS already bowed out of the latest SEC bidding.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

39 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The “age class” of college football players, fans, coaches, refs, managers, personnel, families, girlfriends etc is everyone.

 

You do realize that playing college football without bubbling increases spread between all of those groups, right?

 

[Don Johnson 4757]

40 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Ill state it differently, for someone with a baby brain likes yours: Is playing football this fall safer than not playing football? Will people die that otherwise will have lived if we do play football?

IMO, a very strong argument can be made that players are less likely to contract Covid-19 if they are part of an active football program this Fall, than if they are regular students.  

[HtownHorn 14793]

3 hours ago, GRHorn said:

How many players have died of it throughout the first several months of the pandemic? I’m sure I would’ve heard of it on ESPN if it had happened, even outside of the season and just living their regular lives. 

So far the only death I know about was the UAB freshmen that was shot to death at home, when he otherwise would have been in fall camp.

[ztejas 43552]

Those of you that are not at risk or have preexisting conditions, would you rather be hit like this or rather catch covid?

What about this one

Or this one

Does that look more fun or safer than a very, very low chance of having any complications due to an illness? Or even showing symptoms?

[Neonmoon 38130]

4 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

IMO, a very strong argument can be made that players are less likely to contract Covid-19 if they are part of an active football program this Fall, than if they are regular students.  

That argument can be made, but it is an strawman. Yes, the athletes could contract Covid in a regular student setting. One could argue more likely because of the testing, safety protocols, etc, that the players are safer than regular students. But it is ignoring the little fact that one is required to contact another person to play the game of football. You are breathing heavily around people and physically touching them during the game. 
 

Even though most students will likely try to physically touch another student during the semester because sex, no one is forcing you to physically touch another student. It is possible to not contract Covid if you follow safety protocols and social distance. It is not possible to social distance during football. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of playing. Any player that wants to opt out should, and any players that wants to play should. 

[ztejas 43552]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

That argument can be made, but it is an strawman. Yes, the athletes could contract Covid in a regular student setting. One could argue more likely because of the testing, safety protocols, etc, that the players are safer than regular students. But it is ignoring the little fact that one is required to contact another person to play the game of football. You are breathing heavily around people and physically touching them during the game. 
 

Even though most students will likely try to physically touch another student during the semester because sex, no one is forcing you to physically touch another student. It is possible to not contract Covid if you follow safety protocols and social distance. It is not possible to social distance during football. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of playing. Any player that wants to opt out should, and any players that wants to play should. 

Regular students aren't going to be getting tested multiple times a week. That is a huge difference with a virus that creates millions of asymptomatic carriers. 

[alphahorn 1637]

On 8/13/2020 at 11:50 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep.  Not playing is risking loss of zero lives.  I feel like playing is some risk greater than zero.  So you tell me which side has the doomsday scenario?

Seeing how I'm a doctor, I'll be willing to bet you that no college football player dies from covid.  you people believe the media way too much.

[alphahorn 1637]

13 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

So far the only death I know about was the UAB freshmen that was shot to death at home, when he otherwise would have been in fall camp.

if he coughed right before he was shot, then it's covid

[Skipper 6210]

6 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Regular students aren't going to be getting tested multiple times a week. That is a huge difference with a virus that creates millions of asymptomatic carriers. 

Exactly.  If testing 3X per week and your opponent is following that same protocol, the odds of someone on the field being positive on any given Saturday are far less than the rager being thrown at the name your near campus apartment complex.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

4 minutes ago, alphahorn said:

Seeing how I'm a doctor, I'll be willing to bet you that no college football player dies from covid.  you people believe the media way too much.

Wait, I’d take that bet too.  Taking that bet and matter of factly acting like the risk is zero are two different things.  People posted it was laughable to think a college athlete could die  

Are you the type of doc who believes aliens are raping the masses?  Because those are out there too... 

[Burt Macklin 19053]

13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

That argument can be made, but it is an strawman. Yes, the athletes could contract Covid in a regular student setting. One could argue more likely because of the testing, safety protocols, etc, that the players are safer than regular students. But it is ignoring the little fact that one is required to contact another person to play the game of football. You are breathing heavily around people and physically touching them during the game. 
 

Even though most students will likely try to physically touch another student during the semester because sex, no one is forcing you to physically touch another student. It is possible to not contract Covid if you follow safety protocols and social distance. It is not possible to social distance during football. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of playing. Any player that wants to opt out should, and any players that wants to play should. 

You're the one creating strawmen.  The vast majority of football players are not social distancing regardless of whether the fall season happens. Sure, social distancing isn't possible during football, but most of our team has been posting videos of them hanging out with friends, going to parties, and voluntarily working out in close proximity to other players with no masks or anything.  So, if we assume your strawman, that football players would otherwise be socially distancing if not playing football, then sure, there could be an increased risk due to football.  But that's simply not the reality of the situation.  These guys are more likely to socially distance and take precautions if they have a purpose for it (getting to play) and accountability around them to achieve that purpose. That all goes away if you football is cancelled. 

If you want to talk about regular student settings, just look at OU. They had 0 positives until regular students came back to campus and then the football team immediately had 9 positives. These positives weren't caused by football. The exposure they have during practice is limited to the same set of people every day. That is way less risk than getting exposed to the regular student body at parties and other events, which contain a constantly rotating group of people and lead to a drastically higher risk of exposure. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2309]

1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

 

First saw this last week a few days ago and it's still funny. (and accurate)

[4th&Five 41606]

schools/conferences aren't scared of football leading to a bunch of fb players dropping dead.  they're worried that having fb players on campus while regular students are remote will open a giant can of worms in regards to their amateurism.

[crimsonlonghorn 2309]

39 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Those of you that are not at risk or have preexisting conditions, would you rather be hit like this or rather catch covid?

What about this one

Or this one

Does that look more fun or safer than a very, very low chance of having any complications due to an illness? Or even showing symptoms?

That Westbrook hit would probably be flagged today. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

IMO, a very strong argument can be made that players are less likely to contract Covid-19 if they are part of an active football program this Fall, than if they are regular students.  

It’s like a guarantee