College Football in 2020 in danger?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

2 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:

with a 3% death rate in the US... fuck those 15-30 dummies we aint cancelling

That death rate is not at all representative of the age group impacted among students on college campuses. Theirs is closer to 0.03%.

Professors/Support staff perhaps, but the 3% is not the mortality number to use if discussing the 18-29 age grouping. This has been discussed at length with data on this very thread.

Not to say there aren't long term issues related to the virus but quit using 3% as a data point for college age mortality rates.

Again not advocating for playing CFB or even having campuses open, I am simply advocating for the better use of data and statistics in these discussions.

[TrashMaster G 17551]

6 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:

with a 3% death rate in the US... fuck those 15-30 dummies we aint cancelling

That rate does not apply to 18-22 year-olds, who make up the vast majority of that 50k.  Not even close.

[CowboyFred 1151]

18 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

Of close to 50,000 students and faculty, we should definitely cancel for 1-2% infection rate, 

I'm pretty sure thats not how the actual infection rate would be calculated, but I'm also no fan of maths.

I wasn't saying shit about cancelling one way or the other just pointing out that by the looks of it we might spike again on college campuses after seeing a bunch of shit on twitter about mass gatherings being the norm at schools across the country.

[HtownHorn 14677]

10 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Looks like The University needs to have some words with the Panhellenic Council.

Yeah, how was this not already handled. No frativities during the pandemic.

[Sbbruin 21842]

3 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

So getting drunk and getting paid to get laid is the quintessential human experience

[HeyMcFly 144]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Your statistical analysis is as absurd as your use of punctuation.  

appreciate it homie... 

[TrashMaster G 17551]

Just now, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, how was this not already handled. No frativities during the pandemic.

"Hey, we're going to do this.  Just, nobody say anything or we could get in trouble, K?"  *Momentarily forgetting that everything ends up on social media these days, because, you know, Sisterhood!*

[HeyMcFly 144]

4 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

That death rate is not at all representative of the age group impacted among students on college campuses. Theirs is closer to 0.03%.

Professors/Support staff perhaps, but the 3% is not the mortality number to use if discussing the 18-29 age grouping. This has been discussed at length with data on this very thread.

Not to say there aren't long term issues related to the virus but quit using 3% as a data point for college age mortality rates.

Again not advocating for playing CFB or even having campuses open, I am simply advocating for the better use of data and statistics in these discussions.

I was being facetious since math and I are forever enemies. Cunningham's law and all that.

Edited August 25, 2020 by HeyMcFly

[David Dennison 18854]

2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, how was this not already handled. No frativities during the pandemic.

Riiiiiiiiiight.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

27 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

Of close to 50,000 students and faculty, we should definitely cancel for 1-2% infection rate, 

I see you're still fucking that "everyone is out to shape the narrative one way" chicken. 

1) None of the articles posted nor the UA leadership have said anything close to shutting things down or cancelling.  The UA leadership quoted in the article had very measured comments about flattening the curve, which is perfectly reasonable.

2) Unsurprisingly, your infection rate percentages are, at best, very misleading.  The 531 confirmed cases are from sentinel testing (random testing of 2.5 - 5% of the population) and reported positives from on-campus and private healthcare providers. Plus, these were just positives reported between 8/19 and 8/24, so that's far from enough time to test a large number of people and get results.  We don't know the total number of tests taken of the 531 positives, but it's guaranteed to be less than 100% of the entire campus population, so you're percentages and claims are right up there with the accuracy of Stewart Mandel's tweets.  For someone claiming we should watch out for clear biases and view information posted in this thread through that lens, you sure are proving your own cautions out quite well while unwittingly lumping yourself in with the very people you claim to detest. 

The most meaningful numbers will be the results from their sentinel testing, which haven't been posted yet. That will give us a more meaningful idea of what the true campus spread is really like. Until then, raw numbers like 531 positives out of an unknown amount of tests aren't very useful. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Burt Macklin

[David Dennison 18854]

 

[TrashMaster G 17551]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

 

[HeyMcFly 144]

1 minute ago, TrashMaster G said:

John Daly disagrees

[Valmy77 13226]

Well to be fair it is not like University Presidents have much actual power beyond their ability to be lecturing shit bags.

[ztejas 43418]

11 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:

John Daly disagrees

John Daly ain't stupid

[jinx 2635]

1 hour ago, CowboyFred said:

welp ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

This is the only one I have seen that is anywhere near 1% of the student population.  The rest are much less than that.

[Sbbruin 21842]

19 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:

John Daly disagrees

And so do I.

[Buzzrock 14918]

welp ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 
 

[Tex Pete 20343]

23 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:

John Daly disagrees

John Daly is a multi-millionaire who has lived most people's dream, getting paid to play a game and be fat and drunk.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

We still getting a season? 
 

10,6,5,8,1,3,4,2,11,7,12,9

[Herpa Derpa 6125]

55 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I see you're still fucking that "everyone is out to shape the narrative one way" chicken. 

You can't expect a monkey to evolve within his lifetime.  Might be generations before that bloodline reaches a higher intelligence level.

[Newy25 7668]

52 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I see you're still fucking that "everyone is out to shape the narrative one way" chicken. 

1) None of the articles posted nor the UA leadership have said anything close to shutting things down or cancelling.  The UA leadership quoted in the article had very measured comments about flattening the curve, which is perfectly reasonable.

2) Unsurprisingly, your infection rate percentages are, at best, very misleading.  The 531 confirmed cases are from sentinel testing (random testing of 2.5 - 5% of the population) and reported positives from on-campus and private healthcare providers. Plus, these were just positives reported between 8/19 and 8/24, so that's far from enough time to test a large number of people and get results.  We don't know the total number of tests taken of the 531 positives, but it's guaranteed to be less than 100% of the entire campus population, so you're percentages and claims are right up there with the accuracy of Stewart Mandel's tweets.  For someone claiming we should watch out for clear biases and view information posted in this thread through that lens, you sure are proving your own cautions out quite well while unwittingly lumping yourself in with the very people you claim to detest. 

The most meaningful numbers will be the results from their sentinel testing, which haven't been posted yet. That will give us a more meaningful idea of what the true campus spread is really like. Until then, raw numbers like 531 positives out of an unknown amount of tests aren't very useful. 

 

The Daily Beast specifically wrote this story to point out how stupid Alabama must be for trying to have school. Its not a conspiracy theory, it's their own stated agenda to seek out people doing things they personally believe are hypocritical or stupid. They are not a news agency more a collection of oped and political commentary. That's their view of themselves. Not mine. So yes, this absolutely was narrative driven and consistent with people covid shaming anyone for not cancelling everything in the name of the virus.  

[Herpa Derpa 6125]

The prosecution rests.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

19 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

 

The Daily Beast specifically wrote this story to point out how stupid Alabama must be for trying to have school. Its not a conspiracy theory, it's their own stated agenda to seek out people doing things they personally believe are hypocritical or stupid. They are not a news agency more a collection of oped and political commentary. That's their view of themselves. Not mine. So yes, this absolutely was narrative driven and consistent with people covid shaming anyone for not cancelling everything in the name of the virus.  

You know, I take it all back. You make some really good points. I mean just look at this completely narrative-driven one-paragraph summary that links to the full AL.com article, which includes all the data that Newy ignored so he could propagate entirely unreliable infection rates in this very thread. Can you believe the amount of bias jam-packed into this one paragraph?! I sure am glad Newy's here to remind us that people/news organizations sometimes approach stories with a bias (only on one side, of course, seeing as he's stayed silent about all the money and factors at play that have an incentive for college football to succeed).

 

Quote

The University of Alabama has reported more than 560 coronavirus cases across its Tuscaloosa campus since classes resumed last week, according to local reports. AL.com reports that the school published a new COVID-19 dashboard Monday night which showed 566 coronavirus cases since last Wednesday. That figure doesn’t include entry testing, which at the main campus found 310 positive cases among its nearly 30,000 students. UA president Stuart Bell said Monday that student behavior was not to blame for the spike in cases, saying: “Our challenge is not the students... Our challenge is the virus and there’s a difference, folks.” The spike in cases comes as the City of Tuscaloosa on Monday announced the closure of bars for the next two weeks, aimed at preventing further spread of COVID-19.

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Burt Macklin

[MotownHorn 1761]

12 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

The funny thing is the shut down did absolutely fucking nothing in terms of the spread of the virus, but instead created a much worse environment for people to be happy and healthy. The only thing it did was delay the inevitable. 

By "absolutely fucking nothing" do you mean "a whole lot?"

The big spike in cases came after the shutdown was lifted.

[MotownHorn 1761]

1 hour ago, jinx said:

This is the only one I have seen that is anywhere near 1% of the student population.  The rest are much less than that.

31% of people tested by UNC health services in the past week or so tested positive in the past week or so. https://indyweek.com/news/orange/unc-carolina-inn-covid-19/

But hey, you all keep clinging to this "hey only 1% of the Alabama student population were infected by a virus that increases exponentially throughout the population if proper mitigation measures aren't taken" line.

Psssssttttt exponential growth implies that 1% of students getting infected in a week's time leads to practically the whole campus being infected by midterms. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by MotownHorn

[Js1 85311]

5 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

By "absolutely fucking nothing" do you mean "a whole lot?"

The big spike in cases came after the shutdown was lifted.

Stop it with your bias! 

[4th&Five 41525]

 

[Js1 85311]

That’s a shame.

Sarcastically bc fuck OU but also shit that sucks bc it’s a legit scenario during the season. 

[mdmost 43001]

No, he's only doing that because he doesn't believe in Spencer Rattler. 

[Eskimohorn 5633]

For college campuses, the unknown metric is whether the infection rate is exponentially increasing. So if the first few weeks, you can tell that it is, then eventually something has to give.

Austin is seeing its summer surge end as we’re inviting more potential asymptomatic carriers into the city, and as we send k-12 kids back to school. We’re adding fuel to the fire without a coordinated response between the city, county, university, state, and federal authorities.

Additionally, we’re planning for multiple crowd events at DKR, at the same time as the City is loosening restrictions so more places are open and more commuters going to work.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Neonmoon 38129]

6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

No, he's only doing that because he doesn't believe in Spencer Rattler. 

OU is pulling out all the stops

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

19 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

If they quarantined now, they'll be clear 4-5 days before the first OU game.

This is exactly why they delayed the season.

[kopp0e 1135]

It looks like 1 school wants more seasons with no B1G & PAC teams..?
 

 

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

56 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

By "absolutely fucking nothing" do you mean "a whole lot?"

The big spike in cases came after the shutdown was lifted.

Which indicates the shutdown didn't actually kill the virus, but merely kept it from spreading.

There's no doubt that shutdowns slow the spread, but if the virus is just waiting there at the end of the shutdown, your only hope of society completely avoiding it is to wait for a vaccine.

[mdmost 43001]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If they quarantined now, they'll be clear 4-5 days before the first OU game.

This is exactly why they delayed the season.

But are they sitting the entire time or are they still getting practice and workouts in? There's a point where lack of conditioning is going to cost a lot of those guys their season. 

[jinx 2635]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Which indicates the shutdown didn't actually kill the virus, but merely kept it from spreading.

There's no doubt that shutdowns slow the spread, but if the virus is just waiting there at the end of the shutdown, your only hope of society completely avoiding it is to wait for a vaccine.

And the vaccine doesn't likely mean the end of the virus either right?

Where is the acceptable end?

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

Just now, mdmost said:

But are they sitting the entire time or are they still getting practice and workouts in? There's a point where lack of conditioning is going to cost a lot of those guys their season. 

I would assume they're staying the fuck away from the team, and working out on their own in a contained space.

There's absolutely going to be fall out from this kind of stuff throughout the season, but I still think the games will go on, and at the end of the year, the schools that can keep their guys from getting COVID are going to be the ones who come out on top because they'll get more reps, have more consistent training, etc.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

Just now, jinx said:

And the vaccine doesn't likely mean the end of the virus either right?

Where is the acceptable end?

Right.  This shifting of the goal posts to "society can't function unless COVID is completely squashed" is inherently unreasonable and impractical.

[Neonmoon 38129]

6 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

It looks like 1 school wants more seasons with no B1G & PAC teams..?
 

 

ESPN already setting up that big victory by Alabama/Florida early in the season.

lick clockwork

[927 E. 41st 1124]

2 minutes ago, jinx said:

And the vaccine doesn't likely mean the end of the virus either right?

Where is the acceptable end?

Our weapons for treatment and suppression will continue to improve. It probably won't be like "flipping a switch" and everything goes back to pre-covid ops, but a vaccine will definitely be a big turning point. At the point we have a vaccine, some immunity, and some good therapy options this particular lion won't look so big.

[Pasken 1309]

Seems like the biggest risk to fall football are college students. 

 

[Bartles 769]

Note Riley said it was the test that wiped out the players, not being sick. Presumably asymptomatic and thus just have to wait until they test negative a couple times. If they had more frequent testing capability, that could be pretty soon. The fact it was all the same position would indicate they infected each other, though.

[MotownHorn 1761]

52 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Yeah but I bet ALL of them would have got dat Rona if they weren’t practicing. Having them play football makes it so one didn’t get infected!

Edited August 25, 2020 by MotownHorn

[MotownHorn 1761]

30 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Which indicates the shutdown didn't actually kill the virus, but merely kept it from spreading.

There's no doubt that shutdowns slow the spread, but if the virus is just waiting there at the end of the shutdown, your only hope of society completely avoiding it is to wait for a vaccine.

Yes. The shutdown didn’t kill the virus. In part because it was estimated we shut down to about 50% activity. Shutting down further would have further reduced its prevalence in our society.

Theyre having music festivals at water parks in fucking WUHAN without masks or social distancing because they got it under control there by fully shutting down.

Unlikely that could ever happen here, but there’s gotta be something in between full shutdown and “fuck it. I’m bored. Let’s just have 300,000 dead Americans by Christmas”

Edited August 25, 2020 by MotownHorn

[Jive Turkey 12594]

12 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Seems like the biggest risk to fall football are college students. 

 

COVID is only one of many viruses these broads are susceptible to.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10232]

32 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

It looks like 1 school wants more seasons with no B1G & PAC teams..?
 

 

Apparently only thinks the SEC West will be playing this year

[jinx 2635]

26 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Our weapons for treatment and suppression will continue to improve. It probably won't be like "flipping a switch" and everything goes back to pre-covid ops, but a vaccine will definitely be a big turning point. At the point we have a vaccine, some immunity, and some good therapy options this particular lion won't look so big.

Exactly.

Half of the country thinks we should start figuring out how we get back to normal and half of the country thinks we should exercise restraint as we do so.  Sounds like both halves are right to me.

Edited August 25, 2020 by jinx

[6th Street 6392]

1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

COVID is only one of many viruses these broads are susceptible to.

And that's when the whores come in...

[Tex Pete 20343]

57 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Good. Hope it has repercussions with their depth for years.

And if I didn't know better, I would think Lincoln Riley is intentionally tanking.

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Tex Pete