College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Bartles 769]

To be clear, I do think most campuses will stay closed for fall. The message from the sports side has been this stuff won't be decided until mid-May or so, which makes sense as we are still seeing a high volume of new cases each day. Just like with the conference basketball tournaments, at some point the medical reality will hit everybody like a wave.

That said, I also think the "can we open just for athletes" question will pop up again. Maybe for basketball if it looks like they can safely play their normal schedule.

[Vertigo 20496]

16 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

My younger daughter is saying that the talk amongst her friends is that they will not be back at school in the fall. I also read about her school (Duke) today on CNN. The school is talking about options and one of them is canceling the on-campus fall semester. If a school with a small student population (14,000) and incredibly deep pockets, plus a huge medical school like Duke can't handle it, how are all the other schools hoping to pull it off?

    

A fat lot of good that medical school is doing. 

[TreatyOak 17378]

9 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

A fat lot of good that medical school is doing. 

I liked your post cause it was funny, but the school did actually find a new way to decontaminate n95 masks:

https://medschool.duke.edu/about-us/news-and-communications/med-school-blog/duke-starts-novel-decontamination-n95-masks-help-relieve-shortages

[Veerbone 116]

7 hours ago, Vertigo said:

A fat lot of good that medical school is doing. 

You don't just walk into a pandemic crisis & beat TAMU @ creating vaccines.

[kopp0e 1135]

12 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

Thanks for responding. "A lack of football interest" has nothing to do with why Duke wouldn't have an on-campus fall semester. And there are plenty of big things physically happening on the campus, as well as most campuses. Fear of an campus outbreak and lawsuits (which is happening now at Liberty who resumed classes after spring break) is a driving force.  

I think (in reading your post & checking tweets, it seems some (surprisong) P5 schools could be in for a "whammy" from COVID-19.?!

 

[Veerbone 116]

40 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

I think (in reading your post & checking tweets, it seems some (surprisong) P5 schools could be in for a "whammy" from COVID-19.?!

 

The number of zeros at the end on the balance sheet may be different, but just like the rest of us..  going a year without revenue is shall we say “inconvenient”.  

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Veerbone

[triplelonghorn 27]

Y'all do realize the coronavirus doesn't do well in heat right?

You wanna explain why countries in the southern hemisphere or tropical climates got hit and are getting hit, then? It is, of course, summer there.

[kopp0e 1135]

22 hours ago, Bartles said:

To be clear, I do think most campuses will stay closed for fall. The message from the sports side has been this stuff won't be decided until mid-May or so, which makes sense as we are still seeing a high volume of new cases each day. Just like with the conference basketball tournaments, at some point the medical reality will hit everybody like a wave.

That said, I also think the "can we open just for athletes" question will pop up again. Maybe for basketball if it looks like they can safely play their normal schedule.

I think even if games are played with no athletes, ratings will still be down a bit, as the pagentry of fans chanting & yelling, is part of what tv gets...

I also wonder how this will eventually affect the states that pass pay for likeness of image..? Will those schools be in the good graces of recruits..?

[Veerbone 116]

11 hours ago, triplelonghorn said:

On 3/26/2020 at 1:08 PM, Pimphand said:

Y'all do realize the coronavirus doesn't do well in heat right?

You wanna explain why countries in the southern hemisphere or tropical climates got hit and are getting hit, then? It is, of course, summer there.

What are the ratios?  Comparable .. better..  worse?

 

[wood 11766]

1 hour ago, kopp0e said:

I think even if games are played with no athletes, ratings will still be down a bit, as the pagentry of fans chanting & yelling, is part of what tv gets...

I don't. People are already starved for new content, esp[ sports fans. By that time, if it happens, it'll be much worse

[Bartles 769]

Comprehensive column on return of sports by an epidemiologist

My takeaways:

We MUST stick with lockdown for a while; the better we do now, the sooner we get sports (attn: state capitol stormers this week)

Testing, tracing and treatment advances will obviously be key

When sports do come back, the fewer people involved, the better (i.e. no fans, golf/tennis before team sports)

The "bubble" leagues are possible but really tough to pull off safely

Pro will be easier to bring back than college

[kopp0e 1135]

5 hours ago, wood said:

I don't. People are already starved for new content, esp[ sports fans. By that time, if it happens, it'll be much worse

Good point, It just seems beyond wierd to see bluebloods USC/OU/UT/'Bama/tOSU/UM gridiron, UCLA/'Zona/KU/'Cuse/UNC/Duke hardwood, w/o fans...

[nnm 37906]

6 hours ago, Bartles said:

Comprehensive column on return of sports by an epidemiologist

My takeaways:

We MUST stick with lockdown for a while; the better we do now, the sooner we get sports (attn: state capitol stormers this week)

Testing, tracing and treatment advances will obviously be key

When sports do come back, the fewer people involved, the better (i.e. no fans, golf/tennis before team sports)

The "bubble" leagues are possible but really tough to pull off safely

Pro will be easier to bring back than college

Outstanding article. 
I also took away that it is unlikely that we will have in-person colleges this fall. He hinted at that. Stinks for my HS senior son. 

[wood 11766]

58 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

Good point, It just seems beyond wierd to see bluebloods USC/OU/UT/'Bama/tOSU/UM gridiron, UCLA/'Zona/KU/'Cuse/UNC/Duke hardwood, w/o fans...

Oh yeah ... it'll definitely be weird.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3598]

Some evidence coming out from Santa Clara (estimated rate of infection is underreported by a factor of 50-85) and Massachusetts (64 out of 200 people from the streets tested positive) that the virus is more widespread than initially thought, thats a very good sign. 

[Veerbone 116]

50 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Some evidence coming out from Santa Clara (estimated rate of infection is underreported by a factor of 50-85) and Massachusetts (64 out of 200 people from the streets tested positive) that the virus is more widespread than initially thought, thats a very good sign. 

Data.. finally!   

We will hopefully/likely find out reasonably soon CV-19 is very manageable for 90% of us, but DO NOT forget the high riskers need to stay virtual quarantined & then there is that unlucky sector of folks that seem to just have a bad DNA draw vs this beast.

 

 

[927 E. 41st 1124]

My guess, and that's all it is would be that the known infections and death (numbers and rates) will continue to follow the models and we will either have a football season with a regular start or slightly delayed start. From that point forward I think all bets are off, if there is a strong second wave of the virus we could end up back here with the rest of the season cancelled.(could also happen if a second wave is immediate)

I'm hoping that stories of people being infected a second time are either very rare or they are testing errors.If this virus is much more widespread and therefore a lot less deadly than originally feared that would indeed be good news, especially if we develop good immunity once infected.

As some have mentioned, we are entering a zone where the people with their fingers on the switch don't want to be fired or the subject of a lawsuit yet they don't want to issue refunds and have endless angry phone calls. Again, just guessing that thats what's balancing the scales.

[Veerbone 116]

12 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

My guess, and that's all it is would be that the known infections and death (numbers and rates) will continue to follow the models and we will either have a football season with a regular start or slightly delayed start. From that point forward I think all bets are off, if there is a strong second wave of the virus we could end up back here with the rest of the season cancelled.(could also happen if a second wave is immediate)

I'm hoping that stories of people being infected a second time are either very rare or they are testing errors.If this virus is much more widespread and therefore a lot less deadly than originally feared that would indeed be good news, especially if we develop good immunity once infected.

As some have mentioned, we are entering a zone where the people with their fingers on the switch don't want to be fired or the subject of a lawsuit yet they don't want to issue refunds and have endless angry phone calls. Again, just guessing that thats what's balancing the scales.

Heavily leaning towards the 2nd case is actually a relapse.

i’d also take even money any second wave won’t exceed a 1/5 of what we are experiencing currently.  

[The Marsellus Wallace 102]

I haven't seen discussed. Assuming the games take place and fans are allowed, will the stadiums be full? I expect there to be a good number of season ticket holders (and others), a lot of which are 60+, who will just watch the game on TV out of fear of exposure. However, even if the stadium's 60% full, people will naturally crowd to the better yard-line seats so de facto social distancing still won't work.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

23 minutes ago, The Marsellus Wallace said:

I haven't seen discussed. Assuming the games take place and fans are allowed, will the stadiums be full? I expect there to be a good number of season ticket holders (and others), a lot of which are 60+, who will just watch the game on TV out of fear of exposure. However, even if the stadium's 60% full, people will naturally crowd to the better yard-line seats so de facto social distancing still won't work.

Interesting point. I think a lot will depend on what we know, or think we know at that point. If your chances of death are 3 in 100, I think it's appropriate to respond differently than if the odds are 1 in 5000. Pretty obvious from the numbers out of New York, that hospitals with a capacity of 100 are useless to person 101. Getting past overflowing hospitals and figuring out just what the odds are will make a big difference. 

If there are games, I am leaning toward going, and I just turned 60.

 

[Extra Anejo 99]

5 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Interesting point. I think a lot will depend on what we know, or think we know at that point. If your chances of death are 3 in 100, I think it's appropriate to respond differently than if the odds are 1 in 5000. Pretty obvious from the numbers out of New York, that hospitals with a capacity of 100 are useless to person 101. Getting past overflowing hospitals and figuring out just what the odds are will make a big difference. 

If there are games, I am leaning toward going, and I just turned 60.

 

I can't imagine sitting in a crowded stadium knowing a sniper is going to shoot and kill somewhere between 3 and 10 of the fans. I don't know what the correct decision is for opening universities and playing college sports, I just hope the right decision is made.

[4th&Five 42005]

People put so much focus on the deaths but I'm not going to a game if there's even a chance I catch something that will keep me in bed with a fever for a week or two.

[texifornia 59016]

 

[Newy25 7916]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

People put so much focus on the deaths but I'm not going to a game if there's even a chance I catch something that will keep me in bed with a fever for a week or two.

Then why have you ever gone to a game before? 

[texifornia 59016]

 

[HRSchenker 2341]

4 hours ago, The Marsellus Wallace said:

I haven't seen discussed. Assuming the games take place and fans are allowed, will the stadiums be full? I expect there to be a good number of season ticket holders (and others), a lot of which are 60+, who will just watch the game on TV out of fear of exposure. However, even if the stadium's 60% full, people will naturally crowd to the better yard-line seats so de facto social distancing still won't work.

You make a great point and I'll tell you that while I only go in person to one game a year I will continue to do it if they open up to fans. I'll be wearing a burnt orange mask but I'll be there. 

[4th&Five 42005]

 

[927 E. 41st 1124]

4 hours ago, Extra Anejo said:

I can't imagine sitting in a crowded stadium knowing a sniper is going to shoot and kill somewhere between 3 and 10 of the fans. I don't know what the correct decision is for opening universities and playing college sports, I just hope the right decision is made.

That is also a possibility, your risk is never zero. You could die on the way there in an auto or plane accident , have a heart attack, etc. The question is not when are the odds zero, it's when are they acceptable. Everyone will have to make their own call, once things start opening up.

[Trey3216 15452]

Just read a Nike investment note talking about next NBA season not starting til Christmas, perhaps later.  Yikes 

[Pancho 46309]

Quick update as it will influence sports in the fall...

Have heard back from colleagues/friends in a few states.  1 university (4-year, D1 with sports) has already announced fall will be online only courses, and others are saying they pretty much know it’s going to be online-only in the fall but their admin just hasn’t formally announced anything. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Pancho

[927 E. 41st 1124]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Quick update as it will influence sports in the fall...

Have heard back from colleagues/friends in a few states.  1 university (4-year, D1 with sports) has already announced fall will be online only courses, and others are saying they pretty much know it’s going to be online-only in the fall but their admin just hasn’t formally announced anything. 

Seems a little premature, but I could see where it might be a good plan for some institutions.

[Bartles 769]

The dominoes will fall en masse sometime in May. No one wants to go first and risk a few days bad publicity. Still a few weeks where some sort of Hail Mary mass-testing news could land, so no need to rush the announcements yet

[Pancho 46309]

13 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Seems a little premature, but I could see where it might be a good plan for some institutions.

Actually, no it’s not.  I’ve outlined earlier in this thread as to why colleges and universities will be making Fall decisions soon.  You can go back and read that, I believe it’s on the previous page.  

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Pancho

[Newy25 7916]

18 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Just read a Nike investment note talking about next NBA season not starting til Christmas, perhaps later.  Yikes 

You read only part of the note. The reason they will start later in that scenario is they are trying to finish this season and playoffs first. 

[Don Johnson 4847]

 

[Don Johnson 4847]

17 hours ago, Pancho said:

Quick update as it will influence sports in the fall...

Have heard back from colleagues/friends in a few states.  1 university (4-year, D1 with sports) has already announced fall will be online only courses, and others are saying they pretty much know it’s going to be online-only in the fall but their admin just hasn’t formally announced anything. 

If they've already announced it, why won't you say the school?

[Blotto 24020]

5 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

 

In latest @Stadium poll of all 130 FBS ADs, 99% of ADs believe  are desperately praying we will have college football season this year.

[Pancho 46309]

7 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

If they've already announced it, why won't you say the school?

Does it matter which one?  If it was yours or one of the P5s, you would know it already. 

[Newy25 7916]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

In latest @Stadium poll of all 130 FBS ADs, 99% of ADs believe  are desperately praying we will have college football season this year.

If there is no college football season, there will me mass layoffs across administrations and coaching staffs. There is a pretty big financial motivation for these people to figure something out. 

[Don Johnson 4847]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Does it matter which one?  If it was yours or one of the P5s, you would know it already. 

Not really.  Just would think announced actually means announced.  Yet it appears to be some sort of secret.

[Pancho 46309]

9 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Not really.  Just would think announced actually means announced.  Yet it appears to be some sort of secret.

It’s announced for that university, so it’s public knowledge and it was all over the intertoobs yesterday. Regardless it’s Cal State Fullerton 

 

with that said, Purdue is your first P5 (that I know) who has come out to say they’ll have in-person classes in the fall due to their reasoning that covid19 poses no lethal threat to those 35 and younger. Their president has just posted the message. 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Pancho

[Lidig8r 1906]

18 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Just read a Nike investment note talking about next NBA season not starting til Christmas, perhaps later.  Yikes 

Which the NBA should permanently adopt. Why try to compete with the NFL and college football for the first 3 months of your season? Start with kick ass opening games on Christmas Day and run through August.

[wood 11766]

Austin: Sporting events, festivals could remain a year away, health authority says

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200422/coronavirus-in-austin-sporting-events-festivals-could-remain-year-away-health-authority-says

Quote

 

...

“I think a baseline expectation should be that this concept of social distancing, the personal hygiene, the public masking or public facial covering is going to have to continue until we reach herd immunity by one method or another, and that would be primarily through a vaccination,” Escott said.

...

“So if there are events, like sporting events, like festivals, where there are lots of person-to-person interactions, particularly within 6 feet, particularly when it’s people who are not related, that’s going to substantially increase the risk,” Escott said. “I can expect that at least for the next six months, and perhaps the next year, that events like that are going to be very, very difficult to have unless we have substantial increases in testing and other strategies to further mitigate the threat of those kinds of events.”

...

 

 

[Iceman 2978]

On 4/21/2020 at 4:50 PM, Trey3216 said:

Just read a Nike investment note talking about next NBA season not starting til Christmas, perhaps later.  Yikes 

NBA doesn't start until the 2nd week of February, anyhoo... and not till April if your college hoops team is worth a fuck.

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

1 hour ago, wood said:

Austin: Sporting events, festivals could remain a year away, health authority says

This is going to be a clusterfuck of moderate proportions. 

Just thinking logistics of playing football.  Consider the b12. They are going to have to have all 10 conference members (with varied amounts of athletic and academic priorities), plus five states plus 10 cities/counties (plus Dallas), plus airlines, and charter busses and hotels, ALL have to agree that it is safe to and proper to play.  

All that would be needed is for one of those entities to say no mas and the whole thing folds.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

 

15 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

This is going to be a clusterfuck of moderate proportions. 

Just thinking logistics of playing football.  Consider the b12. They are going to have to have all 10 conference members (with varied amounts of athletic and academic priorities), plus five states plus 10 cities/counties (plus Dallas), plus airlines, and charter busses and hotels, ALL have to agree that it is safe to and proper to play.  

All that would be needed is for one of those entities to say no mas and the whole thing folds.

Most hotels are open now, the airlines and buses are craving the work. the government entities could be a problem but if say Dallas county or city of Dallas said no to using the Cotton Bowl there is a guy down in Arlington that would gladly throw open the doors for a price. (Not to mention Tarrant county would love to put one over on Dallas). I agree about the moderate proportions but there could be workarounds. 

I think the next few weeks will tell us a lot. 

 

[TexEx15 17948]

8 hours ago, Lidig8r said:

Which the NBA should permanently adopt. Why try to compete with the NFL and college football for the first 3 months of your season? Start with kick ass opening games on Christmas Day and run through August.

That would be awesome.  Bridge us through the off season too.

[Goodman 3283]

On 4/21/2020 at 2:09 PM, texifornia said:

 

Fuck ohio.

[Goodman 3283]

52 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

 

Most hotels are open now, the airlines and buses are craving the work. the government entities could be a problem but if say Dallas county or city of Dallas said no to using the Cotton Bowl there is a guy down in Arlington that would gladly throw open the doors for a price. (Not to mention Tarrant county would love to put one over on Dallas). I agree about the moderate proportions but there could be workarounds. 

I think the next few weeks will tell us a lot. 

 

Please baby jesus, do not allow the City of Dallas to fuck this up.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

45 minutes ago, Goodman said:

Please baby jesus, do not allow the City of Dallas to fuck this up.

They are pretty screwed up, less so than the City of Austin but still...