College Football in 2020 in danger?

[ChiTownDoc 21326]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

lol, you realize ChiTownDoc is actually a practicing MD? I think it's fair to say he has more expertise in the field of medicine and disease than you or I or most surly posters

That’s today’s world.  Science and facts take a back seat.  Also the internet.  Im willing to bet that swandered isn’t telling any doctors ‘you don’t know as much as you think you do’ on any medical discussion in ‘real life’.  

Also we are on a covid thread and he has a problem with a doctor giving anecdotal advice of what he’s seeing out there?  Legit lol.  

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

If there was a 50-50 split, or even 80-20,

What do you think the split is? Are you sure it's really what you think it is, like you're really hearing all sides of it? 

Even if it was 80/20-- 20% is a huge margin of error for lack of a better term. But let's say "doctors" are 80% sure of something. How determined are you to act on 80% certainty? Do you think we should shut college football down if 80% of doctors think COVID poses a specifically heightened risk of myocarditis? Should we stop at college football...? Or should we shut down domestic airline service? 

 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5477]

5 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

You don't need a medical degree to think critically and independently. The data is publicly available.

I'm just so relieved that we have people like you to analyze the data and make recommendations for millions of people. If we left that up to people with PHDs, qualifications, and decades of experience, we would be totally lost. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by totallynotabuttpirate

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

My bank account tells me I know plenty.  

your bank account tells me you know what I think about our response to COVID...? 

OK

[HtownHorn 15243]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I fucking love how, in today's society, people can so easily convince themselves that they're critical, independent thinkers because they choose to go against the grain of, you know, experts when it's convenient to them.

Wait, no I don't.

 

So why are schools closed? The data and experts say it is safe.

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

he has a problem with a doctor giving anecdotal advice of what he’s seeing out there?  Legit lol.  

Yes, because the doctor doesn't understand the fallacy of argument by anecdote

Legit lol

[Neonmoon 38130]

59 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Neither of your links addressed complications and deaths stratified by age in my cursory look. Do you have any quotes from the articles showing that?  I’m not disagreeing with your overall stance, but those articles do not back up the quoted statement. 
 

My concerns with going back to school — college or grade school and high school— as well as returning to sports is the staff as well as older relatives being exposed by the young people. Deaths and long term complications among young people won’t be zero but they won’t be widespread either. 

 

https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/pdf

1 in 3 people that Vape, 1 in 6 that don't. (for 18-25 year olds)

Quote

The findings from this analysis indicate that nearly one in three young adults are medically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness (32%).

Quote

In contrast, in the nonsmoking young adult group, only about one in six is medically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness (16%).

Listen, I know I'm an asshole, but I understand the other side. They see quotes from the below posted article 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/young-people-are-dying-from-coronavirus-in-florida-too/

Quote

Across Florida, 84 percent of people under the age of 65 who died from the coronavirus had an underlying medical issue, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis. 

Quote

“While it’s tragic when anybody dies unnecessarily or prematurely from an infection like COVID-19, at least so far most people, particularly under the age of 50, seem to tolerate the infection well,” Brewer said. “And those individuals who do end up in the hospital with severe disease or tragically do die are the exception.”

People read these quotes and think, welp, it's a big "nothingburger". It's just the flu for anyone under 65 or those with comorbidities. The media is overhyping this. But in doing so, it propagates the the idea this isn't serious, and thus allows for more spread, killing more people, given some complications that we don't know how will last. Maybe it's fine, I don't know. No one does. But the least we can do is wear a mask and help decrease the spread. 

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Neonmoon

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Maybe it's fine, I don't know. No one does.

check your bank account and get back to me

Edited August 17, 2020 by SwanderedTalent

[totallynotabuttpirate 5477]

I for one think ChiTownDoc has been in cahoots with Riley this whole time. They are terrified of playing UT this year. He's spent the last 5 months trying to scare us with his nonsensical medical "expertise" and stories about death and risks of long-term complications just to avoid having to take the field against us. 

[ChiTownDoc 21326]

5 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

your bank account tells me you know what I think about our response to COVID...? 

OK

Lol.  No surprise you didn’t get that.  It was in response to me not working at an academic center vs private practice.  That’s something that can be a point of contention within medicine.  But you’re not even a fucking premed scrub but wanna call me out?  Hahaha 

[Js1 86964]

37 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Stop cringing. Those takes mean they're 20 years old, they're not going to die from catching it, and they're likely to catch it whether they play college football or not. That last part is important. 

The parents of Ohio State players signed a statement indicating they were in favor of playing. Obviously any conscientious objectors can sit the season out, but if the vast majority of players and their families want to play, the sport should continue. The players and parents have considered the risks.

Players who spoke about We Are United and BLM - shut the fuck up, no one cares about your opinions

Players who spoke up for We Want to Play - WE SHOULD LISTEN TO THEM

 

Surly re: 18-22 year olds talking about anything in life - NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOUR OPINIONS ABOUT ANYTHING YOU KNOW NOTHING

Surly re: 18-22 year old football players saying they want to play - well they've carefully considered the risk and should play because they are clearly smart enough to be taken seriously 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  No surprise you didn’t get that.  It was in response to me not working at an academic center vs private practice.  That’s something that can be a point of contention within medicine.  But you’re not even a fucking premed scrub but wanna call me out?  Hahaha 

What does that have to do with me responding to being called a "hoax motherfucker" by saying "You don't know nearly as much as you tell yourself you do"  ?

I'm not a "hoax motherfucker". You would know that if you spent any time outside of your little bubble of assumptions instead of trying to dunk on people. 

[Captainant 28414]

1 minute ago, SwanderedTalent said:

I'm not a "hoax motherfucker".

Oh sorry, is the preferred parlance now "truther"?

[gyroprotagonist 2597]

can we please focus and get back to posting videos of coeds partying?

Quote

[Old] You think I like avoiding my wife and kids to hang out with nineteen year old girls everyday? [/School]

 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Players who spoke about We Are United and BLM - WE SHOULD LISTEN TO THEM

Players who spoke up for We Want to Play -shut the fuck up, no one cares about your opinions

see how that works? because that's an equally valid way of assessing people who were willing to accommodate the BLM related demands but don't care that the players want to play

But in the interest of trying to debunk a "gotcha"-- I support the players right to organize. I don't agree with their conclusions all of the time, especially relating to the BLM political movement, but the players are the only group that don't automatically have a seat at the table and they need to do what they can to protect themselves until the model is properly changed.

[Dbeasy 15529]

Tutorial for the Simple Jacks on Surly:

Option A - 1) no one wears masks, 2) many people on campus get covid, 3) many players get covid, 4) many players have to go into isolation, 5) games and/or seasons are cancelled.

Option B - 1) most wear masks, 2) few people on campus get covid, 3) few players get covid, 4) a few players go into isolation, 5) games get re-scheduled or played because there are enough healthy players.

Which option do you want Simple Jack? The NBA and Major League Baseball have gone to extraordinary lengths to try and make Option B happen. If you are arguing and Option C that no mask wearing won't impact the season, you are quite stupid.

[Pimphand 6272]

The virus is not a hoax but all you motherfucks who have made Covid19 your goddamned religion because you are grade A mind controlled pussies absolutely are the hoax. 

We are going to laugh at you for the rest of your lives. Fuck straight off.

[BrazilHorn 6795]

15 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Let's pretend the numbers are correct and that the mysterious uptick in deaths during the pandemic is just that, an unrelated mystery.   

So lets unpack this a bit.  Using your number that works out to about 221 dead student athletes.   Let's ignore the coaches, trainers, bus drivers, hotel workers, and families of these people and keep our focus only on the players.   What are the longterm health impacts of the disease or are there any?    What does recovery, as it is being reported mean? 

-----

I would encourage others to hand out negs to stop the dangerous spread of misinformation.   

 

 

 

I am not saying it is a "mysterious uptick" and for Travis County these numbers are correct. You are the one saying this is misinformation. You are welcome to look at the data, as I do daily and track it as I do daily to confirm. I am not saying that players will not die. Nowhere am I downplaying this, and in fact I also highlighted concern that significant risk is longer term health impact from a virus that is not fully known. I would encourage people to hand out negs to folks like you that are just being a dick for no fucking reason. Go fuck yourself. You may not like the data, but it is not misinformation. It is the actual fucking data. What is the number of athletes by age group you are using to get your death totals? Is it just for football or is it all fall sports? Are you attributing 100% of exposure to playing of sport or are you removing some for exposure to other events (attending class, parties, going to store etc)- See this is how data can be critically discussed.

 

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, tex 2005 said:

Based on what we know about CTE effects later in life, letting 18-22 year olds play football these days is at best criminal negligence when you really think about it.
 

That should be of far greater concern for this particular sport long term, but somehow it always gets forgotten. Where’s the outcry?

Everywhere?

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-nfl-concussion-settlement-supreme-court-20161212-story.html

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191007115239.htm

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/exactly-how-dangerous-is-football

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-02-brain-condition-cte-hs-football.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/i-have-something-even-non-nflers-show-signs-concussions-n1054906

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2019/09/02/college-football-season-is-here-will-universities-continue-to-ignore-the-risk-of-brain-damage/#1e3b97c74f14

Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking football. I want college football to continue. I'm just opposing the narrative that since there's no outcry for CTE, there shouldn't be for Covid

[mdmost 43854]

Well and the whole trying to make the game safer (targeting, safer helmets, concussion protocols) to lessen the risk for CTE. 

[Doc Reeves 6434]

56 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

on a prior page, one death was characterized as "outrageous"-- that's the standard you're trying to change

as HAL said, this conversation can serve no further purpose

 

That ‘one life’ would mean a lot more to you if it were yours.

[Sgt Hulk 14331]

Guys. Guys.  Has anyone asked 

 

 

what about the children?

[Sawbonz 28089]

17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/pdf

1 in 3 people that Vape, 1 in 6 that don't. (for 18-25 year olds)

Listen, I know I'm an asshole, but I understand the other side. They see quotes from the below posted article 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/young-people-are-dying-from-coronavirus-in-florida-too/

People read these quotes and think, welp, it's a big "nothingburger". It's just the flu for anyone under 65 or those with comorbidities. The media is overhyping this. But in doing so, it propagates the the idea this isn't serious, and thus allows for more spread, killing more people, given some complications that we don't know how will last. Maybe it's fine, I don't know. No one does. But the least we can do is wear a mask and help decrease the spread. 

 

 

 

That is a predictive statistical model. A pubmed search does not show any study of hospitalizations or mortality due to Covid-19 stratified by age in the US, Europe or China. The closest I could find was a wuhan study that showed a significantly higher risk for independent variables of age greater than 62, dm, and obesity

The study you linked implies 16% of teens who don’t vape and 32% who do are getting seriously ill from Covid-19. If we were seeing that someone somewhere would have published those data. I have not seen a single published study that bears that out. I have not even seen a published case report or small series of cases of deaths among otherwise healthy young people  

 

Please do not characterize my critique of your argument with an agreement with the poster who thinks covid is no big deal for young people.  If you can link a paper that shows significant morbidity and mortality in young people please do

 

 

 

[4th&Five 41908]

 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

3 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

That ‘one life’ would mean a lot more to you if it were yours.

that is true of everyone, everywhere, all the time

it is meaningless as a way of discussing whether college football should be played this fall

[Don Johnson 4812]

13 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Tutorial for the Simple Jacks on Surly:

Option A - 1) no one wears masks, 2) many people on campus get covid, 3) many players get covid, 4) many players have to go into isolation, 5) games and/or seasons are cancelled.

Option B - 1) most wear masks, 2) few people on campus get covid, 3) few players get covid, 4) a few players go into isolation, 5) games get re-scheduled or played because there are enough healthy players.

Which option do you want Simple Jack? The NBA and Major League Baseball have gone to extraordinary lengths to try and make Option B happen. If you are arguing and Option C that no mask wearing won't impact the season, you are quite stupid.

1 & 2 in Option B will not happen.  College students will be college students.

[Neonmoon 38130]

5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

That is a predictive statistical model. A pubmed search does not show any study of hospitalizations or mortality due to Covid-19 stratified by age in the US, Europe or China. The closest I could find was a wuhan study that showed a significantly higher risk for independent variables of age greater than 62, dm, and obesity

The study you linked implies 16% of teens who don’t vape and 32% who do are getting seriously ill from Covid-19. If we were seeing that someone somewhere would have published those data. I have not seen a single published study that bears that out. I have not even seen a published case report or small series of cases of deaths among otherwise healthy young people  

 

Please do not characterize my critique of your argument with an agreement with the poster who thinks covid is no big deal for young people.  If you can link a paper that shows significant morbidity and mortality in young people please do

 

 

 

Define significant

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Coach Charlie Strong gave me CTE

Shhh shhh shh little one, Quinn Ewers is gonna come and take all the pain away 

[Doc Reeves 6434]

5 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

that is true of everyone, everywhere, all the time

it is meaningless as a way of discussing whether college football should be played this fall

If human life isn’t the metric you are considering than your confusion about this issue is rightly explained.

[Tex Pete 21394]

Seems to me that we should have been encouraging college students to get the virus over the last couple of months. Would have reduced the risk once everyone got back to college towns. IMO. 

[Don Johnson 4812]

4 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

Seems to me that we should have been encouraging college students to get the virus over the last couple of months. Would have reduced the risk once everyone got back to college towns. IMO. 

Also known as the Clemson plan.

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

7 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

If human life isn’t the metric you are considering than your confusion about this issue is rightly explained.

Hold still for a minute, stop squirming. I said that what I would think if my life were at risk was meaningless in the context of discussing whether we should play college football, and it is. It's an appeal to emotion-- a hypothetical one at that-- and a solipsistic way of interpreting what we know pro and con. 

If you want to say "well if it were me, I wouldn't play" and support individuals players choosing to sit out, that is perfectly reasonable. 

If you want to say "if it were me, I wouldn't play, so no one should be allowed to play", then there's not really anything for you and I to discuss; that is an intractable difference of opinion. 

If you want me to Internet this up and say "FUCK YOU FUCKER I'D FUCKING PLAY!!!!!" I can do that, but this is sort of a last-gasp attempt at having a nice discussion on Surly like the ones I'm having with js1 and ChiTownDoc.

Edited August 17, 2020 by SwanderedTalent

['stache 22117]

14 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

Seems to me that we should have been encouraging college students to get the virus over the last couple of months. Would have reduced the risk once everyone got back to college towns. IMO. 

And a bunch of spots would open up for people on the waitlists for admission. Win-win!

Edited August 17, 2020 by 'stache

[ruitxn 299]

54 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Completely agree with all of this. If kids are on campus, go ahead and play. If not, it makes no logical sense to field a football team full of "student athletes."

If kids are on campus, I hope y’all cram 100,000 butt to butt aggys together too.  Whoop!!

[kevwun 16308]

15 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

Seems to me that we should have been encouraging college students to get the virus over the last couple of months. Would have reduced the risk once everyone got back to college towns. IMO. 

And then they infect their parents and grandparents and a bunch more people have to be hospitalized when we were already almost at maximum capacity.  Sounds like a great plan.  I can't believe no one followed it.

[Sawbonz 28089]

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Define significant

Greater than or equal to the common causes of morbidity and mortality for the given age group

 

or post a link to any study stratifying hospitalizations and deaths by age. I haven’t been able to find one on pubmed

[Wulaw Horn 19561]

5 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Came here to see football season discussion, left because this thread head 110% caught the Covid

It’s literally titled 2020 season in danger?  This Covid thing was all this thread was ever supposed to be about. This the “in danger” part 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10763]

So are we to believe "college kids" are only acting this way now that they are back on campus?

[kevwun 16308]

Oooooh, a new conspiracy.  All you have to do is ignore the parts about being away from their parents for the first time in months and being back together with thousands of other kids the same age.

Edited August 17, 2020 by kevwun

[ChiTownDoc 21326]

57 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

What does that have to do with me responding to being called a "hoax motherfucker" by saying "You don't know nearly as much as you tell yourself you do"  ?

I'm not a "hoax motherfucker". You would know that if you spent any time outside of your little bubble of assumptions instead of trying to dunk on people. 

You’re arguing medicine with a doctor who’s treated 100’s of covid patients but I’m the one that needs to stay in my lane?   You’re a really dumb motherfucker.  

[Js1 86964]

21 minutes ago, kevwun said:

And then they infect their parents and grandparents and a bunch more people have to be hospitalized when we were already almost at maximum capacity.  Sounds like a great plan.  I can't believe no one followed it.

"Hey kids, you should just catch this virus that we don't really know the long-term effects of and get it over with AND you can easily pass on to your parents, grandparents, other elderly relatives!" 

[Hurtlocker 2219]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You’re arguing medicine with a doctor who’s treated 100’s of covid patients but I’m the one that needs to stay in my lane?   You’re a really dumb motherfucker.  

[Don Johnson 4812]

11 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

So are we to believe "college kids" are only acting this way now that they are back on campus?

Yes.  Sure, I partied when home from college.  But I had a summer job and not as many friends around and my hometown wasn't a college town.

The day i got back on campus?  With thousands of other college students and a number of avenues to party?  Game on.  A whole new level.

[NWAustinDude 2266]

48 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Yeah, but FUPM

Edited August 17, 2020 by NWAustinDude

[Dbeasy 15529]

45 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

1 & 2 in Option B will not happen.  College students will be college students.

May be true, but we will really never know how students WOULD have reacted had the ill-informed and a long list of government officials refused to acknowledge science, refused to wear masks and refused to strongly request that people wear masks until the issue boiled over into a stupid "Myyy rightssss" protest.

[Hurtlocker 2219]

4 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Yes.  Sure, I partied when home from college.  But I had a summer job and not as many friends around and my hometown wasn't a college town.

The day i got back on campus?  With thousands of other college students and a number of avenues to party?  Game on.  A whole new level.

I was drunk and hitting on anything in sight before the bags were unpacked.

Its not so much I'm shocked that this is their behavior, its that I'm shocked that no one planned that this would be their behavior and were prepared, in any meaningful way, to handle it.

Wait, I know, we could just put all the students in the biggest building on campus, say a football stadium.   Then quarantine them there for a few weeks with stale nachos and corn dogs and not let them leave until its burned its way through.   

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You’re arguing medicine

See, wrong. You are badly missing the point, probably because you're not really reading my posts. 

I am not questioning your credentials or your experience, even though that's what you're spending half your time defending. I'm not claiming I'm particularly smart or that I think COVID is a "hoax", even though that's what you're spending the other half your time attacking. 

You are not good at stating and defending positions. "I know lawyers" was a tongue in cheek way of pointing out the kind of fallacious reasoning your posts are filled with. You appeal to authority, you rely on anecdotal evidence and defend it by further appealing to authority, you bluster and insult, you even cite your bank account. 

Do you really think your posts are persuasive? Because to me, they read like someone who knows he can't convince anyone of anything and takes disagreement as a personal affront. And this being the Internet, I know you're likely to turn right around (or were, before I predicted you might) and ask if I think my posts are persuasive, and that's easy: no. I don't. But I'm not trying to persuade-- I'm a skeptic. I'm participating just because I'm baffled there aren't more skeptics involved in the discussion.

[Wulaw Horn 19561]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Let's pretend the numbers are correct and that the mysterious uptick in deaths during the pandemic is just that, an unrelated mystery.   

So lets unpack this a bit.  Using your number that works out to about 221 dead student athletes.   Let's ignore the coaches, trainers, bus drivers, hotel workers, and families of these people and keep our focus only on the players.   What are the longterm health impacts of the disease or are there any?    What does recovery, as it is being reported mean? 

-----

I would encourage others to hand out negs to stop the dangerous spread of misinformation.   

 

 

 

I’m confused here- he had .04% as the numbers he was using (actually .03 and .05 but I split the difference) for the student athlete age cohort. Expressed in a decimal this is .0004- correct?  When I multiply that by 10,000 (I think that’s how many college football players there are)  I get 4 deaths. 
You said using his numbers you get about 221 people. What am I missing/what did I get wrong to get my number compared to yours?  Or did you forget to carry the 1 somewhere or another?  
4 deaths amongst the population of football players would suck. I also feel like we get at least 4 deaths every year, and if we shut down football for the year it’s still likely we get... 4 deaths but I could well be wrong- I suppose. 

[kevwun 16308]

The recurring theme of covid is the people in charge of pretty much everything being blindsided by easily predictable events.  Open bars and college kids together with friends for the first time in months?  NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN THAT COMING.

Edited August 17, 2020 by kevwun

[Wulaw Horn 19561]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Tutorial for the Simple Jacks on Surly:

Option A - 1) no one wears masks, 2) many people on campus get covid, 3) many players get covid, 4) many players have to go into isolation, 5) games and/or seasons are cancelled.

Option B - 1) most wear masks, 2) few people on campus get covid, 3) few players get covid, 4) a few players go into isolation, 5) games get re-scheduled or played because there are enough healthy players.

Which option do you want Simple Jack? The NBA and Major League Baseball have gone to extraordinary lengths to try and make Option B happen. If you are arguing and Option C that no mask wearing won't impact the season, you are quite stupid.

Serious question here- who in your mind here is arguing for option 1?  I don’t get that sense from anyone but maybe I’ve missed it. I see a lot of people talking about where they were when the challenger blew up, and a lot of people saying that this disease shouldn’t be treated as an existential threat to everything we do in life, and if people want to willingly assume the risks of certain behavior (playing football) we ought to let them.