College Football in 2020 in danger?

[Nivek 17,349]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m confused here- he had .04% as the numbers he was using (actually .03 and .05 but I split the difference) for the student athlete age cohort. Expressed in a decimal this is .0004- correct?  When I multiply that by 10,000 (I think that’s how many college football players there are)  I get 4 deaths. 
You said using his numbers you get about 221 people. What am I missing/what did I get wrong to get my number compared to yours?  Or did you forget to carry the 1 somewhere or another?  
4 deaths amongst the population of football players would suck. I also feel like we get at least 4 deaths every year, and if we shut down football for the year it’s still likely we get... 4 deaths but I could well be wrong- I suppose. 

thanks,  you got that right.  me posting before coffee = bad.  NCAA had ~75k players listed for a given year for all of football.  I didn't see a breakdown by division, etc.   That number should have been 22 deaths among a given population of that age bracket (using his number).   Now, we still have not accounted for the exposure risks associated with sports vs. average joe that doesn't sweat, bleed, and tackle each other.    

I did see some data indicating that age range accounts for ~35% of cases in California.  

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,562]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:We're really just having an semantic argument about what we both personally consider dangerous. We might agree, we might not. 

Yeah- I plugged in my numbers and figured I had about a 1/4000 chance of dying from this thing (not if I get it- but dying period whether it or not) 

I decided I’m not going to worry about 1:4000 but that’s certainly not nothing. If someone else wants to worry about that I can’t say they are wrong or an idiot or anything like that- I just value my life less, and the other stuff that goes into

living more, than you do. And that’s ok and reasonable. We shouldn’t all view risk the same way. That’s ok. 

[Trey3216 15,450]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

COVID truthers.

Think for yourself!

INDEPENDENT MINDED PEOPLE! 

THE MEDIA! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

 

[aggie08 21,738]

I'd be WAY more worried about the 98% urine content in that water than I'll ever be of COVID.

['stache 22,118]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I'd be WAY more worried about the 98% urine content in that water than I'll ever be of COVID.

Urine is sterile, maybe it helps kill the COVID? Maybe they all have UV lights up their asses.

[gmr548 16,681]

Some of you pussies should never leave your house again. Full lockdown until you’re dead.

If only everyone were more like noted alpha male tex 2005, amirite?

[DenverHorn 56]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

It really comes down to those who want to find the information that fits their predetermined narrative, and those that want to sift through the BS and get at the science.  If you want to find support in the for your side, you will find it.  If you want to get at the truth, you have to dig deeper.  Or listen to people who simply know a lot more.  Personally, Fauci strikes me as someone who just wants the science to drive the decision-making.  

Decisions are tough to make when you have so many unknowns & in this case indirect effects can emerge as a "more certain" catastrophe than the original cause itself.  Take a look at the endowments of the conferences that passed on fall sports vs those that are still on board (especially the one who is hell bent/SEC).  Now the argument becomes "are these poorer schools acting selfishly to avoid bankruptcy risks?"..  "acting on the best interests of the players and science/safer under team care than general student population?" or are they considering the big picture as it relates to the domino effect of a bankrupt college on a small town & the long term health & morbidity impact? 

Interesting times for sure, I'll run with money/economics driving these decisions until proven otherwise.  Then we can all discuss the origin of the virus & what motive possibly drove it's existence & mysterious release into our population.   I'll lean towards power & money on the latter.

 

[aggie08 21,738]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Urine is sterile, maybe it helps kill the COVID? Maybe they all have UV lights up their asses.

Okay, now I'm intrigued.

[Trey3216 15,450]

1 hour ago, Pam Cummings said:

What you call censorship, i call not giving morons a platform. Nobody wants to punish you for being dumb. You are demonstrably wrong and listening to people with opinions like yours just keeps fucking things up worse.

 

['stache 22,118]

1 minute ago, tex 2005 said:

Speaking of junk science....good god

I'm a juris doctor, I know stuff.

[Don Johnson 4,816]

Wait....what?

 

[BrazilHorn 6,795]

Deaths in CA by age group (https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx)

They do different age brackets than Travis county but the age bracket that would include college age athletes shows:

0.07% mortality rate (161 deaths from 221,337 cases) and they account for 1.4% of total deaths. Similar to Travis county (and the US) the age cohort for 60+ comprises ~82% of total deaths))

 

['stache 22,118]

1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

Wait....what?

 

The big cigars started calling, lol.

[Don Johnson 4,816]

Pac 12 shill Fischer chimes in to defend

 

[Dbeasy 15,529]

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

 

what exactly are you implying with this post? I don't understand the point you are making.

[Nivek 17,349]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

I am not saying it is a "mysterious uptick" and for Travis County these numbers are correct. You are the one saying this is misinformation. You are welcome to look at the data, as I do daily and track it as I do daily to confirm. I am not saying that players will not die. Nowhere am I downplaying this, and in fact I also highlighted concern that significant risk is longer term health impact from a virus that is not fully known. I would encourage people to hand out negs to folks like you that are just being a dick for no fucking reason. Go fuck yourself. You may not like the data, but it is not misinformation. It is the actual fucking data. What is the number of athletes by age group you are using to get your death totals? Is it just for football or is it all fall sports? Are you attributing 100% of exposure to playing of sport or are you removing some for exposure to other events (attending class, parties, going to store etc)- See this is how data can be critically discussed.

 

 

1) I will happily fuck myself.  

2) the numbers are part of a problem because we know there was a surge in pneumonia deaths at the same time and testing's availability was lacking.  We still have a spike in deaths per the NYT article.  

3) You are correct in posting the numbers.  The issue I am taking is that the numbers are not accounting for other risks outside of a binary live/die answer.  There is very little about the acute/chronic impact of the disease among those deemed recovered.   I may be a bit reactionary as my family, who cited some of these numbers, believe there is a conspiracy to hide treatment for a new virus, and believes there were 19 iterations of this same virus.  So I will happily go back to step 1).

[Js1 86,978]

Hey welcome back stone oak, er fuck you immamac, er tex 2005.  Who knows how many accounts you've had because you keep getting your ass banned. 

[Trey3216 15,450]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

what exactly are you implying with this post? I don't understand the point you are making.

Trying to say that while we’re over here in fucking America trying to tear each other down over this fucking stupid virus and whether or not we should be sending kids to school, playing sports, etc (which immediately devolves into a Bucket of fuck shit slinging contest) the fucking people in the origin of this fucking virus are roaming around by the thousands at outdoor parties with no masks and laughing their ass off at our dumbasses.   
 

fuck everything.  

[Burt Macklin 19,221]

1 hour ago, tex 2005 said:

Some of you pussies should never leave your house again. Full lockdown until you’re dead.

 

45 minutes ago, The Earl of Texas said:

How about just until you’re dead?

 

15 minutes ago, tex 2005 said:

Pretty sure death threats are automatic bannination here. Can anyone confirm?

 

[South Austin 53,158]

11 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Pac 12 shill Fischer chimes in to defend

 

Well, of course, their requests for subsidies was not Paraguayan in and of it is as it were the United States government would never have if the president, our president, had not and as far as I know that's the way it will always be. Is that clear?

[Dbeasy 15,529]

Trying to say that while we’re over here in fucking America trying to tear each other down over this fucking stupid virus and whether or not we should be sending kids to school, playing sports, etc (which immediately devolves into a Bucket of fuck shit slinging contest) the fucking people in the origin of this fucking virus are roaming around by the thousands at outdoor parties with no masks and laughing their ass off at our dumbasses.   
 
fuck everything.  

Jeez dude you just disproved the entire point you were trying to make. Wuhan locked down with masks and limited movement more than any region in the entire world. And guess what? It worked. Now they are able to enjoy themselves because they limited the spread. As has most of the rest of the world, who now only have to deal with small flare-ups. Meanwhile ‘Murica is still half-assin’ it over and over month after month.

[4th&Five 41,908]

 

[Trey3216 15,450]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

Jeez dude you just disproved the entire point you were trying to make. Wuhan locked down with masks and limited movement more than any region in the entire world. And guess what? It worked. Now they are able to enjoy themselves because they limited the spread. As has most of the rest of the world, who now only have to deal with small flare-ups. Meanwhile ‘Murica is still half-assin’ it over and over month after month.

And we did too much too soon in Texas, then opened back up too quick, all the while the goalposts were being moved daily.  Flatten the curve.  Don’t overrun the hospitals.  Well, we fucking did that in every state not named New York or New Jersey.  But, that changed to every state opening back up is full of “muh rights” regards and we need to be fully locked down because “we can stop this thing”.  
 

there was never stopping the thing, there was delaying the inevitable or letting it run roughshod like NY/NJ because of incompetence.   We’ve already peaked in TX, AZ, CA, FL and other “worst places in the world”.  
 

The amount of mental gymnastics being spun is mind-numbing.  I’m just tired of the shit.  

[BrazilHorn 6,795]

1 minute ago, Nivek said:

1) I will happily fuck myself.  

2) the numbers are part of a problem because we know there was a surge in pneumonia deaths at the same time and testing's availability was lacking.  We still have a spike in deaths per the NYT article.  

3) You are correct in posting the numbers.  The issue I am taking is that the numbers are not accounting for other risks outside of a binary live/die answer.  There is very little about the acute/chronic impact of the disease among those deemed recovered.   I may be a bit reactionary as my family, who cited some of these numbers, believe there is a conspiracy to hide treatment for a new virus, and believes there were 19 iterations of this same virus.  So I will happily go back to step 1).

Hey man - appreciate it and I will own being a little harsh myself.

I don't disagree that there may be number suppression with things being hidden in pneumonia & flu cases. You can look at the CDC numbers  and they show the following if you include the deaths from flu & pneumonia (I am just adding 100% of them) here is what you see (2/1 - 8/8 Male only)

Total Deaths - 12,624

Total Deaths from influenza, pneumonia & CV19 - 388

Deaths from influenza - 27

Deaths from pneumonia - 210

Deaths from CV19 - 154

The 15-24 Male  age group makes up 1.47% of total Male deaths that have occurred & 0.19% of the total Male CV19 deaths. If you add Pneumonia, Influenza & CV19 deaths the 15-24 Male age group makes up 0.26% of all PICV19 deaths that have occurred among Males in the US from 2/1 to 8/8.

I actually think we agree, I think CV19 is VERY real, I by no means am downplaying it, I also don't see a scenario where football happens. I think now that students are back on campus you are going to see the bubble that football players have been in the past couple of weeks completely burst as kids from 18-22 years old do the stupid, awesome college age shit that kids this age do. They are just happening to be doing it at a REALLY bad time.

 

[Chet Steadman 940]

If those UNC videos are any indication, Chapel-Hill will have herd immunity by about lunch-time Thursday. 

[Nivek 17,349]

32 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I plugged in my numbers and figured I had about a 1/4000 chance of dying from this thing (not if I get it- but dying period whether it or not) 

I decided I’m not going to worry about 1:4000 but that’s certainly not nothing. If someone else wants to worry about that I can’t say they are wrong or an idiot or anything like that- I just value my life less, and the other stuff that goes into

living more, than you do. And that’s ok and reasonable. We shouldn’t all view risk the same way. That’s ok. 

If you lived on your private island that would be fine.  But we interact with others whom are not aware of the risk, cannot avoid the risk, or are not intelligent enough.   We need to act as a society to defeat this.  We have ~5% of the World Population and 25% of the deaths.   We are failing as a society to handle this appropriately.     Isolation is a temporary measure to help bring down those numbers and it works.   

 

 

[Captainant 28,415]

UNC student paper doing good work lol

 

 

[kopp0e 1,135]

 

['stache 22,118]

Looks like aggy has a real chance at an undefeated season, if they get to play week 1, before the inevitable shutdown.

[Pato del Muerto 53,346]

3 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

 

I can already see how they built the schedule to screw the lower 5 teams and prop up the middle 5 teams so they will have good records when they play the top 4 teams. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,562]

10 minutes ago, Nivek said:

If you lived on your private island that would be fine.  But we interact with others whom are not aware of the risk, cannot avoid the risk, or are not intelligent enough.   We need to act as a society to defeat this.  We have ~5% of the World Population and 25% of the deaths.   We are failing as a society to handle this appropriately.     Isolation is a temporary measure to help bring down those numbers and it works.   

 

 

Sure. But what’s the acceptable risk, how long for isolation a bunch of other stuff. I’m going to comply with whatever happens as I’ve said from the word go, but we need some societal agreement. That’s all I’ve ever maintained. 

[Captainant 28,415]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

I can already see how they built the schedule to screw the lower 5 teams and prop up the middle 5 teams so they will have good records when they play the top 4 teams. 

They're only quality losses if they happen AFTER September, duh!

[Hornius Emeritus 12,781]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Looks like aggy has a real chance at an undefeated season, if they get to play week 1, before the inevitable shutdown.

It's already being painted on the outside of Kyle. Undefeated 2020.

[kopp0e 1,135]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I can already see how they built the schedule to screw the lower 5 teams and prop up the middle 5 teams so they will have good records when they play the top 4 teams. 

But then, there is the problem of SEC still having aggy screw up the model, bending the curve downwards... 

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You’re arguing medicine with a doctor who’s treated 100’s of covid patients but I’m the one that needs to stay in my lane?   You’re a really dumb motherfucker.  

Hey, quit wasting your time and energy fucking around in this thread; and get back to the "Market is falling" & "Stonks" thread and give me advice on how I should lose my money.

[Pato del Muerto 53,346]

2 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

It's already being painted on the outside of Kyle. Undefeated 2020.

Nah “Undefeated 20__” has been there since they hired jimbo. 

[Goodman 3,280]

48 minutes ago, tex 2005 said:

Pretty sure death threats are automatic bannination here. Can anyone confirm?

Sure is but read the small print. T&C's are enforced by mods, they will bring down the hammer (if they agree with your POV on subject) in this case you're out of luck. 

[Brothahorn 10,097]

How do we know the students in places Bama, OSU, UNC or the other places even care about if there is a season? Based on our 'Arab Spring' maybe they see football as part of the establishment/old guard. And that means it's not a priority/cause they worry about. Especially since they can't be in attendance. They are going to live their lives and not worry about pampered athletes, old people and games. I mean, it's not like they haven't been beaten over the head with social distancing and other protocols since March. I feel like they just may not give a damn.

[TrashMaster G 18,036]

2 minutes ago, Goodman said:

Sure is but read the small print. T&C's are enforced by mods, they will bring down the hammer (if they agree with your POV on subject) in this case you're out of luck. 

Or, you know, use a single brain cell and recognize it wasn't a death threat.

[kopp0e 1,135]

Just schedule football games, 1 week at a time then.?! 🤪

 

[mdmost 43,854]

59 minutes ago, tex 2005 said:

Pretty sure death threats are automatic bannination here. Can anyone confirm?

Only if the threat is against a poster that isn't a sock of an already banned worthless poster. Sorry, stone oak. 

[Goodman 3,280]

4 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Or, you know, use a single brain cell and recognize it wasn't a death threat.

Ok, I'll play. If it said "I hope you die/are infected and die". Is that a death threat? This will be fun...

['stache 22,118]

So our non-con opponent is in quarantine. This whole thing is going to work out just fine.

[kopp0e 1,135]

Leaving this here:

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

54 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hey welcome back stone oak, er fuck you immamac, er tex 2005.  Who knows how many accounts you've had because you keep getting your ass banned. 

 

He's not even trying to hide it. He posts exclusively in the Oil Barons thread and the politically charged threads, just like he did as stne oak. Imagine being that desperate for attention that you keep making fake names to return to a community that has made it very clear that they don't want you around. It's like the psychotic ex that still calls you eight years later even though you've never once responded to her.

Edited August 17, 2020 by BradInATX

[Burt Macklin 19,221]

10 minutes ago, Goodman said:

Sure is but read the small print. T&C's are enforced by mods, they will bring down the hammer (if they agree with your POV on subject) in this case you're out of luck. 

Except no one came anywhere near making a death threat and the OP brought up waiting til people die first. 

1 minute ago, Goodman said:

Ok, I'll play. If it said "I hope you die/are infected and die". Is that a death threat? This will be fun...

Really good game you made up here. Sure, if you fundamentally change what was posted, then it could be turned into a death threat. 

[Goodman 3,280]

Just now, Burt Macklin said:

Except no one came anywhere near making a death threat and the OP brought up waiting til people die first. 

Really good game you made up here. Sure, if you fundamentally change what was posted, then it could be turned into a death threat. 

So hoping or wishing death is a threat? 

[mdmost 43,854]

We're all going to die some day. So does that mean I just issued  a death threat on all of us?

Edited August 17, 2020 by mdmost

[Burt Macklin 19,221]

2 minutes ago, Goodman said:

So hoping or wishing death is a threat? 

No, it is not, but no one said anything like that, which was the whole point. It is painfully obvious that no one made a death threat and you're aware of that, which is why you had to completely change what is posted to even start inching towards that territory. 

[TrashMaster G 18,036]

Some of you pussies should never leave your house again. Full lockdown until you’re dead.

How about just until you’re dead?

 

So, he effectively says, "How about us pussies never leave our houses again until you're dead?  Would that satisfy you?"

I don't see how saying you are going to wait around the house until somebody dies is, in any way, a death threat.  It's not a well-wish, sure.  But that is a long walk away from a threat.