Grading Trump's Pandemic Leadership

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

So, Anastasis, who did you vote for as your chosen leader, as president of the United States, and as leader of the free world, who would've created a superior response than Trump, Clinton, Johnson, or Stein?

[ndawg 1242]

Indeed. The thing a contrarian never wants to admit to is that they got suckered, because their entire identity is built on the notion that it's everyone else who is the sucker.

[Anastasis 23395]

15 minutes ago, ndawg said:

We're seeing vastly different responses around the world to the pandemic, and vastly different outcomes. It's not hard to see that Trump wasted a lot of time that any president listening to their experts would have spent preparing the country. It's also not hard to consider the last few decades of Hillary Clinton's public life and gauge that she would have done the other thing.

I guess I'm getting riled up because I work in tech, and I keep running into people with this same lack of ability to contextualize discussion. You can say you prefer mustard to mayonnaise and they'll ask you to cite your sources, like it's a formal debate. So, sorry if I'm venting my frustration on you. But I think you're missing something that's literally right in front of you.

Yeah, I don't disagree with most of the first paragraph. The Trump administration has shit the bed.  I have stated as much.  

I am capable of contextualizing the discussion.  Part of contextualizing the conversation is asking people to show their math when they make very specific claims about case and death rates. Not sure why that causes some of you to go into convulsions.  

Edited March 28, 2020 by Anastasis

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546]

The context is given our wealth and resources we should be first and we're last.

[ndawg 1242]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yeah, I don't disagree with most of the first paragraph. The Trump administration has shit the bed.  I have stated as much.  

I am capable of contextualizing the discussion.  Part of contextualizing the conversation is asking people to show their math when they make very specific claims about case and death rates. Not sure why that causes some of you to go into convulsions.  

Jimmyjazz made a prediction, not a claim.

[Anastasis 23395]

Just now, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

The context is given our wealth and resources we should be first and we're last.

No disagreement. We are significantly behind where we should be because of poor decision making. Primarily related to testing strategy at this point, and likely related to vent strategy in the future. 

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, ndawg said:

Jimmyjazz made a prediction, not a claim.

 

 

Replace the word "claim" with "prediction" then. 

 

[ndawg 1242]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Replace the word "claim" with "prediction" then.

Can you not see the difference?

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, ndawg said:

Can you not see the difference?

In the context of a politics discussion board exchange?  Please. Tell me more about contextualization. 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546]

Anastasis wants the Ghost of Christmas Future to prove there would be any substantial difference in pandemic response between a reality game show host who believes in windmill cancer and a former Secretary of State that served in the previous administration that dealt with and had created agencies to deal EXACTLY with what we're dealing with now.

 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

OK, @Anastasis, how's this:  the death toll in the US has been doubling ~ every 2.5 days.  We're currently at ~ 1,800 deaths.  In approximately 2 weeks, barring a miracle, I expect we'll be at ~ 100,000 deaths.  I think we all hope I'm wrong.  I'd love to hear any good arguments as to why that might be the case.

I posited "10's of thousands" of deaths incurred due to Donald Trump's failure to act in time.  Call it 20,000 fatalities we could have avoided.  Do you honestly think we wouldn't have reduced fatalities by 20% two weeks from now had we started testing two months earlier, as well as distributing significantly more PPE and respirator/ventilator equipment to healthcare facilities?  

What if we go out 3 weeks?  We could be at 800K deaths barring that miracle.  Obviously, extrapolation gets dicier the farther out we go, but are you willing to say that Hillary Clinton's likely actions would not have reduced that number by 20K?

"10's of thousands" is a drop in the bucket if something doesn't change PRONTO.  There's your fucking math.

Edited March 28, 2020 by jimmyjazz

[henrygandorf 29175]

over the next few weeks, we're gonna see the whole country get this, not just the big cities.

once that happens, there will be shortages, overcrowded hospitals, and a purposely uneven ledger of requests from the states.  have we ever had a president that is so petty that he's still quibbling with blue-state governors on fox news and on twitter?  do we think hillary clinton would be penalizing red states if their governors refused to kiss the ring?

what kind of leaders from around the world are treating areas of their countries differently based strictly on not just favoritism, but public favoritism?  is that who we want to be?

the reason most american presidents and most foreign leaders have achieved spikes in popularity is because in times of turmoil, be it war, weather, or disease, they have found a way to comfort and unite their people behind one common issue.  meanwhile, trump has further divided the country, yet his supporters are fist-bumping over a 5 point spike in favorability.

so yes, by definition, anyone with a pulse would be handling this better, because nobody could be possibly handling this worse.  and the shitty part hasn't happened yet.

[Gatorubet 30099]

33 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

over the next few weeks, we're gonna see the whole country get this, not just the big cities.

once that happens, there will be shortages, overcrowded hospitals, and a purposely uneven ledger of requests from the states.  have we ever had a president that is so petty that he's still quibbling with blue-state governors on fox news and on twitter?  do we think hillary clinton would be penalizing red states if their governors refused to kiss the ring?

what kind of leaders from around the world are treating areas of their countries differently based strictly on not just favoritism, but public favoritism?  is that who we want to be?

the reason most american presidents and most foreign leaders have achieved spikes in popularity is because in times of turmoil, be it war, weather, or disease, they have found a way to comfort and unite their people behind one common issue.  meanwhile, trump has further divided the country, yet his supporters are fist-bumping over a 5 point spike in favorability.

so yes, by definition, anyone with a pulse would be handling this better, because nobody could be possibly handling this worse.  and the shitty part hasn't happened yet.

he's right you know gif

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

God damn I hope the next pandemic hits while there's a D president so we can finally wipe out the fucking GOP states.

[High Plains Drifter 10976]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

You should have recognized the dire nature of the situation when we were forced to pick between two totally shit options. 

 

 

Negged for both siding this shit.

 

i'm not a fucking epidemiologist, and I suspect jimmyjazz isn't either. We don't have any 'math' to show, just some common fucking sense. If you honestly believe Hillary wouldn't have handled this shit any better than doTaRD, then you are not rational, and there is no sense having any discussion with you.

 

[Anastasis 23395]

47 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

OK, @Anastasis, how's this:  the death toll in the US has been doubling ~ every 2.5 days.  We're currently at ~ 1,800 deaths.  In approximately 2 weeks, barring a miracle, I expect we'll be at ~ 100,000 deaths.  I think we all hope I'm wrong.  I'd love to hear any good arguments as to why that might be the case.

I posited "10's of thousands" of deaths incurred due to Donald Trump's failure to act in time.  Call it 20,000 fatalities we could have avoided.  Do you honestly think we wouldn't have reduced fatalities by 20% two weeks from now had we started testing two months earlier, as well as distributing significantly more PPE and respirator/ventilator equipment to healthcare facilities?  

What if we go out 3 weeks?  We could be at 800K deaths barring that miracle.  Obviously, extrapolation gets dicier the farther out we go, but are you willing to say that Hillary Clinton's likely actions would not have reduced that number by 20K?

"10's of thousands" is a drop in the bucket if something doesn't change PRONTO.  There's your fucking math.

I think that we will see a bend the curve with social distancing in a period 14 days from now.  Haven't run your numbers through the calculator, but I think that the bend in new cases will be noticeable.  And god willing that translates into deaths by stemming capacity overflows. I think that the trends will be regional, but noticeable. Moreso in ATX and western states compared to a place like NY/NJ (clusterfuck) or MS (dumbfuck). 

I stand by the original statement.  

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I don't think there would really be any substantive difference wrt where we sit today to be honest.

Your math requires that the counterfactual operates with a level of hindsight that is optimistic.  I have laid out the reasoning in other threads on this board, but I think a more realistic approach is to use other western nations to proxy what an alternative administration would have accomplished up to this point. Given the nature of doubling rates, shit could very well indeed run away from us extremely quickly with small inputs to the model. But again the assumptions are pivotal. 

   

[jimmyjazz 45557]

Sure, current exponential growth rates could diminish because of social distancing efforts.

Stress on the healthcare system would counteract that tendency.

I think my assumption that current growth in death toll will continue in a similar manner is perfectly rational, given multiple unknowns going forward.  Then again, I'm not accounting for "counterfactuals" (whatever the fuck those are).

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

"counterfactuals" (whatever the fuck those are).

The alternate reality. 

[tx 3 putt 76371]

how bad do things have to get for a 1 state regional alliance to make a move on a weaker state for food or medicine ?

haha 

[zork 629]

I wasn't sure how to vote all day.  When I woke up this morning I decided to see how the US figures thus far compared with the most populous regions of the EU till it got close in population in total.  Then I took Italy out of the mix as an outlier.  Seems Trump, and USA, USA medicine, is killing it.

EU vs USA      rounded population   total cases

germany        81 mm        50 k    
france        65 mm        33 k    
italy         60 mm        86 k    
spain         46 mm        65 k    
poland        38 mm        1 k    
romania        21 mm        1 k    
netherlands    16 mm        8 k    

totals with italy        327 mm        244 k

totals minus italy   267 mm     158k 

usa        330 mm        104 k

 

pop numbers:  eu pop numbers by country

cases via JH RC

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by zork

[TexArcher 37508]

37 minutes ago, zork said:

I wasn't sure how to vote all day.  When I woke up this morning I decided to see how the US figures thus far compared with the most populous regions of the EU till it got close in population in total.  Then I took Italy out of the mix as an outlier.  Seems Trump, and USA, USA medicine, is killing it.

EU vs USA      rounded population   total cases

germany        81 mm        50 k    
france        65 mm        33 k    
italy         60 mm        86 k    
spain         46 mm        65 k    
poland        38 mm        1 k    
romania        21 mm        1 k    
netherlands    16 mm        8 k    

totals with italy        327 mm        244 k

totals minus italy   267 mm     158k 

usa        330 mm        104 k

 

pop numbers:  eu pop numbers by country

cases via JH RC

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Well, shit, since it's over I guess we won.  Nothing else to see here.  Murka.

The shit Trumpkins can cook up to defend/promote their boy is nothing short of amazing.  It's like an army of 100 million miniature Fox News twisting, lying machines.

[zork 629]

3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Well, shit, since it's over I guess we won.  Nothing else to see here.  Murka.

The shit Trumpkins can cook up to defend/promote their boy is nothing short of amazing.  It's like an army of 100 million miniature Fox News twisting, lying machines.

The poll is as of this moment, as of yesterday.  Multiply Germany by 5:

60 mm x 5= 300 mm pop  250 k cases, vs USA 330 mm pop and 104 k cases. 

Sure, the numbers will change as we go forward.  But as of now it is indisputable that the USA is performing very well with the data we have available.

BTW, Cuomo is openly  starting to question the SIP, quarantine, whatever you want to call it.  

[AngryDragon 270]

55 minutes ago, zork said:

I wasn't sure how to vote all day.  When I woke up this morning I decided to see how the US figures thus far compared with the most populous regions of the EU till it got close in population in total.  Then I took Italy out of the mix as an outlier.  Seems Trump, and USA, USA medicine, is killing it.

EU vs USA      rounded population   total cases

germany        81 mm        50 k    
france        65 mm        33 k    
italy         60 mm        86 k    
spain         46 mm        65 k    
poland        38 mm        1 k    
romania        21 mm        1 k    
netherlands    16 mm        8 k    

totals with italy        327 mm        244 k

totals minus italy   267 mm     158k 

usa        330 mm        104 k

 

pop numbers:  eu pop numbers by country

cases via JH RC

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Let me try the same test your're trying.

Asia V US

Japan 127 MM 2200

Korea 51 MM 9500

Taiwan  24 MM 300

Indonesia 264 MM 1200

TOTALS 466 MM  13,200

USA 330 MM 104,000 w an arrow pointed straight up.

Sounds like your orange king is doing a great job.

[bolverk 29399]

What Zork is missing in his analysis is the arrival time for when this shit has taken hold. At this moment, in this time, things look better here now, but he doesn't take into account that we're 2-3 weeks behind the comparison European groups.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

[TexArcher 37508]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What Zork is missing in his analysis is the arrival time for when this shit has taken hold. At this moment, in this time, things look better here now, but he doesn't take into account that we're 2-3 weeks behind the comparison European groups.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

He's also not taking into account that the population density in Europe is much higher.  A more fair comparison would be per capita Italy to NY or Germany to CA.  But we all know the last thing in the world he's interested in is fair comparisons.

[zork 629]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What Zork is missing in his analysis is the arrival time for when this shit has taken hold. At this moment, in this time, things look better here now, but he doesn't take into account that we're 2-3 weeks behind the comparison European groups.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

I accounted for some of that by throwing out Italy, or the worst of EU.(while letting you see the numbers with Italy).

The number of cases ultimately won't matter but deaths will.  That is if it is to be believed, and I do, that we are all going to get it at some point.  Dig in to the JHopkins map, scroll around, zoom in, zoom out, click on the red dots, interesting stuff.

 

[bolverk 29399]

4 minutes ago, zork said:

I accounted for some of that by throwing out Italy, or the worst of EU.(while letting you see the numbers with Italy).

The number of cases ultimately won't matter but deaths will.  That is if it is to be believed, and I do, that we are all going to get it at some point.  Dig in to the JHopkins map, scroll around, zoom in, zoom out, click on the red dots, interesting stuff.

 

I'm, sadly, intimately familiar with the map. Unfortunately, outside the US, it doesn't provide the same granular data at the local level that the US portion does with counties.

Edit: I bring this up because I have a number of Eurpean friends, and its difficult to gauge the threat when there's a big red blob of a circle covering their entire country. This transcends the political "orange man bad" and the whole fucking thing is sad and terrible.

Edited March 28, 2020 by bolverk

[zork 629]

Just now, TexArcher said:

He's also not taking into account that the population density in Europe is much higher.  A more fair comparison would be per capita Italy to NY or Germany to CA.  But we all know the last thing in the world he's interested in is fair comparisons.

So make some fair comparisons.  Some of the countries with only, only 1k cases, for instance, could be doing much worse while an innocuous place like Poland is doing seemingly better.  Why is that?  Is it less travel from China?  Better medicine?  Less world travelers to hotspots that were hot for who knows why vs other places? 

Was the virus intentionally spread to some places?  Is that even a consideration?

Multiply Germany by two and you get easily more cases than the USA with a bit more than a 1/3 of the population. 

LA county is very low compared to NYC area.

The argument on the Asian cases is very stark.  Either they are more extreme in their lockdowns or the virus isn't as bad as it is being led to be, or what? 

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm, sadly, intimately familiar with the map. Unfortunately, outside the US, it doesn't provide the same granular data at the local level that the US portion does.

That is probably because while it took a bit to get good test kits we are seeing how kick ass our USA system is working.  The three levels, local, state, feds, is a very well set up system for reporting compared to most of the world.  

We'll see.

[TexArcher 37508]

1 minute ago, zork said:

So make some fair comparisons.

Okay.  In places with population densities comparable to Europe, it's just as bad here.  And we're lagging behind them on the timeline.  And we waited longer to force social isolation.  The death totals will almost certainly be worse here.

I hope I'm wrong.  I want to be wrong.

But there is absolutely no way any reasonable person could give Trump credit for how he's handled this.  It's absurd.  This will be the cherry on top of the shit sundae of his legacy.

[DigglerontheHoof 21061]

I simply cannot fathom how anyone could think trump is anything but a complete disaster.  Blows my fucking mind. 

[zork 629]

29 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm, sadly, intimately familiar with the map. Unfortunately, outside the US, it doesn't provide the same granular data at the local level that the US portion does with counties.

Edit: I bring this up because I have a number of Eurpean friends, and its difficult to gauge the threat when there's a big red blob of a circle covering their entire country. This transcends the political "orange man bad" and the whole fucking thing is sad and terrible.

to your edit:  yes, the big blobs of red are unworkable to see what is going on imho.  scroll in so you can see that that big red blob breaks down nicely wrt USA reporting.  gives a completely different perspective when you can see DFW whole area is made up of a bunch of smaller dots and etc throughout the whole USA.  Even looking at Mississippi you see lots of 20-30 cases being reported in their multi-county areas(big cities included most likely, big for Mississippi) and few deaths with virtually no SIP, quarantine.

12 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Okay.  In places with population densities comparable to Europe, it's just as bad here.  And we're lagging behind them on the timeline.  And we waited longer to force social isolation.  The death totals will almost certainly be worse here.

I hope I'm wrong.  I want to be wrong.

But there is absolutely no way any reasonable person could give Trump credit for how he's handled this.  It's absurd.  This will be the cherry on top of the shit sundae of his legacy.

So compare Poland vs France?   Virtually the same population density and , adjusting for population, why the yuge disparity in cases?  Or Florida vs France?(didn't do the calculations on that but the pop densities are similar)

You can get more info to see more of those type things here:

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by zork

[TexArcher 37508]

1 minute ago, zork said:

So compare Poland vs France?   Virtually the same population density and , adjusting for population, why the yuge disparity in cases?

Because Trump is doing such an amazing job in Poland?

[Jack Straw 2953]

6 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I simply cannot fathom how anyone could think trump is anything but a complete disaster.  Blows my fucking mind. 

100% approval among Republicans.  They are fundamentally dishonest, party over country traitors.  

[bolverk 29399]

7 minutes ago, zork said:

So make some fair comparisons.  Some of the countries with only, only 1k cases, for instance, could be doing much worse while an innocuous place like Poland is doing seemingly better.  Why is that?  Is it less travel from China?  Better medicine?  Less world travelers to hotspots that were hot for who knows why vs other places? 

Was the virus intentionally spread to some places?  Is that even a consideration?

Multiply Germany by two and you get easily more cases than the USA with a bit more than a 1/3 of the population. 

LA county is very low compared to NYC area.

The argument on the Asian cases is very stark.  Either they are more extreme in their lockdowns or the virus isn't as bad as it is being led to be, or what? 

That is probably because while it took a bit to get good test kits we are seeing how kick ass our USA system is working.  The three levels, local, state, feds, is a very well set up system for reporting compared to most of the world.  

We'll see.

There are so many muddled questions packed in here that it's difficult to begin to even address.

First off, *fewer^ world travelers. Second, Italy and France are two of the "hottest" places for international tourists to visit, which explains why they were hit harder, earlier. The notion that this was an "intentional" spread needs to be dropped. There's literally zero evidence of that. I mean, what would the Chinese have against the fucking Italians? And who goes to fucking Poland on a European vacation other than to visit Auschwitz?

You're more than welcome to believe that our system of uncoordinated competing county, state, feds is superior to other nations reporting at the department, region, and national level. It's just that Johns Hopkins has a better mapping tool for display.

 

[bolverk 29399]

16 minutes ago, zork said:

to your edit:  yes, the big blobs of red are unworkable to see what is going on imho.  scroll in so you can see that that big red blob breaks down nicely wrt USA reporting.  gives a completely different perspective when you can see DFW whole area is made up of a bunch of smaller dots and etc throughout the whole USA.  Even looking at Mississippi you see lots of 20-30 cases being reported in their multi-county areas(big cities included most likely, big for Mississippi) and few deaths with virtually no SIP, quarantine.

So compare Poland vs France?   Virtually the same population density and , adjusting for population, why the yuge disparity in cases?  Or Florida vs France?(didn't do the calculations on that but the pop densities are similar)

You can get more info to see more of those type things here:

 

The initial spread appears to correlate with travel, income, and mobility. Poland doesn't have a lot to offer to international visitors and has lower income levels; therefore, it has fewer folks going in and out to ski resorts and such. Don't worry though. I'm sure that Poland will catch up.

Edited March 28, 2020 by bolverk

[zork 629]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Because Trump is doing such an amazing job in Poland?

Is Macron such a shitty leader as compared to Duda?(had to look up Poland Prez TBH)

 

Similar population density:

Poland 38 million  1389 cases (unrounding since it is significant)

Poland x2 76 million 2778 cases

France 67 million 33k cases

Netherlands  17.18 million    8603 cases

Nx4  = 68.72 million  34.4 k cases  But the Netherlands is about 3.3 times more pop dense than France

[Dnaguy 11775]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I simply cannot fathom how anyone could think trump is anything but a complete disaster.  Blows my fucking mind. 

HE inherited a broken system and is fighting an invisible enemy no one saw coming.

Easy, succinct message. Says it everyday.

Unless we run out of refrigerated trucks to store bodies in, I think he might actually be able to pull the ultimate con job off.

If you thought his election, or Russia Investigation, or Ukraine Impeachment was his greatest work then you’d be mistaken..

Trump might actually get elected after losing more people to this ‘war’ than any other President outside of Lincoln AND 10’s of millions of people out of work AND a recession. He’s never seen better poll numbers.

What you are watching is a nothing short of a masterpiece.

[wildcat09 29243]

Trump is refusing federal aid to states with Democratic governors, condemning thousands of people to unnecessary deaths, and Anastasis is still bothsidesing. Amazing.

[Mole 4320]

12 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

His “high point” is proclaiming that federal help to states is dependent on governors appreciation and praise for him?

And if they aren’t sufficiently sycophantic then those citizens will pay the price?

I mean, wow.

Yes. By any objective measure he’s been historically bad. Relative to his own presidency, he’s killing it. This is the most competent and leaderlike we’ve seen him.

Just because the bar is depressingly low doesn’t change that. He’s doing the kind of things great leaders do, it’s just that he’s doing them so poorly. Great leaders foster an optimism that will get their people through trials; Trump spins an alternative reality that slows the response. Great leaders challenge and push the people under them; Trump has petty, threatening squabbles with insufficiently grateful governors. Great leaders unite their people against a common enemy; Trump perpetually finds enemies to distract us.
 

If you squint hard enough, you could almost start to delude yourself into calling whatever he’s doing leadership. If you ignore reality just enough, his words and actions possess enough of the form of leadership to convince a desperate population. We need someone in this crisis and he’s the only someone we have.
 

Yes, this is the best, most capable, most honorable, and most inspirational that we’ve seen him. In these trying times, I for one won’t miss out on admiring a man at the apex of his greatness. It’s a rare gift to witness such a thing. There will hopefully be time to recount the many ways that he catastrophically bungled this whole thing once it’s all over and most of us are still hopefully alive and thriving. For now, let’s just find some contentment in the realization that we’re watching Trump be his best self. Self-actualization is a beautiful thing

Edited March 28, 2020 by Mole

[Anastasis 23395]

 

38 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

Trump is refusing federal aid to states with Democratic governors, condemning thousands of people to unnecessary deaths, and Anastasis is still bothsidesing. Amazing.

 

In response to a poster saying that he didn’t think less of this country when trump was elected, I suggested he should have maybe done so earlier in the process. If pointing out that the two party political apparatus failed us in 2016 elicits a “bothsides omg” conniption, so be it. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

9 hours ago, ndawg said:

Every once in a while, the truth is going to be hiding in plain sight, right in front of you, and you're not going to see it, because you're biased.

Brilliant statement. I actually believe this should be written into the Politics board user agreement.

[bolverk 29399]

2 hours ago, zork said:

Is Macron such a shitty leader as compared to Duda?(had to look up Poland Prez TBH)

 

Similar population density:

Poland 38 million  1389 cases (unrounding since it is significant)

Poland x2 76 million 2778 cases

France 67 million 33k cases

Netherlands  17.18 million    8603 cases

Nx4  = 68.72 million  34.4 k cases  But the Netherlands is about 3.3 times more pop dense than France

It arrived earlier there. After the dust settles, I'll be delighted to compare deaths per capita ratios with you, if we're both still living. 

[Nivek 16859]

Trump is refusing federal aid to states with Democratic governors, condemning thousands of people to unnecessary deaths, and Anastasis is still bothsidesing. Amazing.

What? Dobt you remember when President Obama told New Jersey to fuckoff after hurricane Sandy? The same governor who shut down a road because he thought it would be funny.

[bolverk 29399]

32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

In response to a poster saying that he didn’t think less of this country when trump was elected, I suggested he should have maybe done so earlier in the process. If pointing out that the two party political apparatus failed us in 2016 elicits a “bothsides omg” conniption, so be it. 

This is the CR -- you can name names. Who had a conniption in this thread?

[TwiceHorn 31272]

Well, if Trump, or whomever, had avoided his two colossal fuckups to date, testing and PPE/Ventilators, let's examine what might have happened.

• For testing, I suppose we would have found community spread earlier and could have more swiftly moved to "shelter in place" in specific areas.  Probably other benefits from the "demographic" data, some tangible, some less so
• That, in turn, may have permitted more strategic allocation of existing PPE/ventilators while production ramped up, and postponed the urgent need for such apparatus in the future

On the first one, the "blanket" SIP and social distancing polices, made without benefit of testing data, may have had the same effect, or lack thereof.  I fear we don't know how the PPE/ventilators is going to shake out, yet.  Also, it's kind of appearing that the CDC and federal authorities may not have been ready to make good use of testing data (some of which is Trump's fault, some of which isn't), but state authorities and academics seem more than ready to fill that breach.

I think any other leader, with a shred of empathy, would have willingly risked overreaction and all that entails (economic slowdown, infringement of liberty, spending of vast governmental sums) rather than leave the nation hanging and exposed to this threat.

[gmr548 16512]

I don't think that anybody has demonstrated that there would be a substantive difference in the case or death rates.  If you can provide some solid evidence justifying the your projections, the timing that different policies would be enacted in, and some sensitivity analysis around your assumptions I would be more than willing to consider them...

untestable counterfactuals seem to to rule the day around here. 

Yes they do.

[bolverk 29399]

29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, if Trump, or whomever, had avoided his two colossal fuckups to date, testing and PPE/Ventilators, let's examine what might have happened.

• For testing, I suppose we would have found community spread earlier and could have more swiftly moved to "shelter in place" in specific areas.  Probably other benefits from the "demographic" data, some tangible, some less so
• That, in turn, may have permitted more strategic allocation of existing PPE/ventilators while production ramped up, and postponed the urgent need for such apparatus in the future

On the first one, the "blanket" SIP and social distancing polices, made without benefit of testing data, may have had the same effect, or lack thereof.  I fear we don't know how the PPE/ventilators is going to shake out, yet.  Also, it's kind of appearing that the CDC and federal authorities may not have been ready to make good use of testing data (some of which is Trump's fault, some of which isn't), but state authorities and academics seem more than ready to fill that breach.

I think any other leader, with a shred of empathy, would have willingly risked overreaction and all that entails (economic slowdown, infringement of liberty, spending of vast governmental sums) rather than leave the nation hanging and exposed to this threat.

Largely agree. It's not the color of the flag the president flies but his/her ability to hoist a symbol of national unity that matters like these. Quite simply, Trump is not capable of doing that and, even if he could, his supporters don't allow it.

This, right now, is a global pandemic crisis that's threatening the existence of a significant portion of humanity. 

A decent president -- no matter the political stripe -- would be expecting excellence among his civilian servants and demanding they use their knowledge to blunt the knives flying against us.

In this case, we've got a pathological liar who points his stubby little fingers at those who are trying their best to get shit done.

Edited March 28, 2020 by bolverk
buttery males

[Anastasis 23395]

43 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is the CR -- you can name names. Who had a conniption in this thread?

Well since you asked, you are the one who jumped in to white knight even a glancing suggestion that the political system failed us in 2016, demanding a condemnation of all sides.  Which was readily given of course. 

I didn't make this a both sides argument. I laughed at another posters notion that he didn't think that much less of the country when it elected Donald Trump, and suggested maybe there were leading indicators.

[TwiceHorn 31272]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Largely agree. It's not the color of the flag the president flies but his/her ability to hoist a symbol of national unity that matters like these. Quite simply, Trump is not capable of doing that and, even if he could, his supporters don't allow it.

This, right now, is a global pandemic crisis that's threatening the existence of a significant portion of humanity. 

A decent president -- no matter the political stripe -- would be expecting excellence among his civilian servants and demanding they use their knowledge to blunt the knives flying against us.

In this case, we've got a pathological liar who points his stubby little fingers at those who are trying their best to get shit done.

Yeah, I didn't even attempt to account for the general failure of leadership.  That's kind of an intangible thing.  GWB provided at least some  leadership while his administration fucked things up.

[RomaVicta 29784]

12 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

You should have recognized the dire nature of the situation when we were forced to pick between two totally shit options. 

 

Sorry. No. At worst it was like choosing between a shit sandwich made by someone with ebola and a dry veggie burger.

You, my friend, don't get to choose the caterer for the annual SurlyFest luncheon.