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Winners and Losers - COVID

ernest_t_bass

By ernest_t_bass
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ernest_t_bass

ernest_t_bass 1196

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As in all crises, the market adjusts, and you have winners and losers in the end.  You have current businesses who's business will sore, and other businesses who will crash hard, and die out.  Same with industry, not just business-specific.  So, in your opinion, who or what are the winners and losers when this is said and done?  No politics (plz try), and trying not to get personal (ie - people will die, they're the losers) if that makes sense.

Winners

  • Zoom - It's a buzz word now, and it will be how business, school, etc. is conducted from this point forward.  Zoom is where it's at right now, so when other players enter the game, they better be ready.
  • At home meal services - We currently are doing Hello Fresh.  What are some others?
  • Door Dash, Uber Eats, etc.

Losers

  • Brick and mortar Retail - Online shopping is very prevalent already, but I think this increases logistics of parcel services to get items to folks quicker, and folks will ditch retail
  • Cruise Lines

What say ye?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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The losers are the businesses that responsibly maintained healthy balance sheets with enough cash on hand to survive a revenue interruption, as they'll be spending their own money over the next 2-3 months.

The winners are the businesses that irresponsibly pushed every ounce of liquidity out to their investors and executives. They'll be spending taxpayer money over the next 2-3 months.

 

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PilotsError

PilotsError 2287

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Losers: citizens.  NY just announced they're releasing hundreds of inmates.  One of them was locked up for killing an EMT, according to the NY Post.  I imagine many murderers and rapists are either about to be released or already have been, nationwide.  We all lose.

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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2 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

Losers: citizens.  NY just announced they're releasing hundreds of inmates.  One of them was locked up for killing an EMT, according to the NY Post.  I imagine many murderers and rapists are either about to be released or already have been, nationwide.  We all lose.

You gonna call the police?

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

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Companies that enable remote, distributed work. This event has been a catalyst for many industries to move to SaaS based solutions to allow their workforce to continue working. 

Zoom like the OP is just the headline company but many industry specific tech services are seeing a sales upswing past few weeks. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2620

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Losers-anyone involved in commercial real estate; owners, investors, brokers, insurers. 

I also don't have a great grasp of how insurance markets work but I presume that a lot of insurers have significant risk exposure to the bond and equities markets and the flight to cash three weeks ago (and ongoing) surely hurts them, irrespective of policy claims (at least on the medical side so those might be bankrupting, as well). 

 

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riloh05

riloh05 107

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ernest_t_bass said:

As in all crises, the market adjusts, and you have winners and losers in the end.  You have current businesses who's business will sore, and other businesses who will crash hard, and die out.  Same with industry, not just business-specific.  So, in your opinion, who or what are the winners and losers when this is said and done?  No politics (plz try), and trying not to get personal (ie - people will die, they're the losers) if that makes sense.

Winners

  • Zoom - It's a buzz word now, and it will be how business, school, etc. is conducted from this point forward.  Zoom is where it's at right now, so when other players enter the game, they better be ready.
  • At home meal services - We currently are doing Hello Fresh.  What are some others?
  • Door Dash, Uber Eats, etc.

Losers

  • Brick and mortar Retail - Online shopping is very prevalent already, but I think this increases logistics of parcel services to get items to folks quicker, and folks will ditch retail
  • Cruise Lines

What say ye?

zoom has some very real security issues...also they own the content that is on the screen. not a good option when you dig into those details. it did not make it through the 1st phase of our security review.

winners- those with cash on deck

losers- those without cash

Edited by riloh05
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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

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1 minute ago, kmac30 said:

Losers - All the sales guys that get to keep their hotel/airlines/car rental rewards. Traveling sales could look a lot different after companies see their people can still sell sitting at home.

Winners - H-E-B.

That's the damn truth right there. Outside sales still has its place in some situations, but a lot of executives are about to find out that Inside teams are a preferable option in most scenarios. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54222

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7 hours ago, ernest_t_bass said:

Winners

  • Zoom - It's a buzz word now, and it will be how business, school, etc. is conducted from this point forward.  Zoom is where it's at right now, so when other players enter the game, they better be ready.
  • At home meal services - We currently are doing Hello Fresh.  What are some others?
  • Door Dash, Uber Eats, etc.

Losers

  • Brick and mortar Retail - Online shopping is very prevalent already, but I think this increases logistics of parcel services to get items to folks quicker, and folks will ditch retail

I'm honestly kind of excited to see how the world returns to "normal" after this, and what changes that we've made during this time become the new "normal."

(I swear that I'm not a person who normally says things like that, either.)

Edited by Beau Vine
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Your Mom

Your Mom 4805

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7 hours ago, BradInATX said:

The losers are the businesses that responsibly maintained healthy balance sheets with enough cash on hand to survive a revenue interruption, as they'll be spending their own money over the next 2-3 months.

The winners are the businesses that irresponsibly pushed every ounce of liquidity out to their investors and executives. They'll be spending taxpayer money over the next 2-3 months.

 

A lot of businesses that will receive a bailout could have easily gotten by for 2-3 months.  My employer has already said 6 months of very little to no revenue would be no problem.  If that's all it was, full payroll could continue with cash on hand.  But they're expecting this loss of revenue to last long beyond the end of the virus.  Unemployment is about to skyrocket, emergency funds will be emptied across the nation, spending will drop, and the revenues of all kinds of businesses will suffer along with that long after the virus moves on.  

That's not an excuse for the out of control executive salaries, stock buybacks, etc...  I'm as opposed to that as anyone.  But it's kind of short-sighted to say a company with 6 months of expenses in savings didn't a healthy balance sheet.  Plenty of business were prepared for a bad 6 months or beyond but are still going to need help.  

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Deej

Deej 76775

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7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Winners: Pets.  They're happy because YOU'RE HOME ALL THE TIME.

Losers: Pool boys looking to get some.  Kinda hard to give Karen the business when her cuck in in the other room.

Poor Hamm can't give Karen Key Largo the business any longer? I thought Jimbo liked that?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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30 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

A lot of businesses that will receive a bailout could have easily gotten by for 2-3 months.  My employer has already said 6 months of very little to no revenue would be no problem.  If that's all it was, full payroll could continue with cash on hand.  But they're expecting this loss of revenue to last long beyond the end of the virus.  Unemployment is about to skyrocket, emergency funds will be emptied across the nation, spending will drop, and the revenues of all kinds of businesses will suffer along with that long after the virus moves on.  

That's not an excuse for the out of control executive salaries, stock buybacks, etc...  I'm as opposed to that as anyone.  But it's kind of short-sighted to say a company with 6 months of expenses in savings didn't a healthy balance sheet.  Plenty of business were prepared for a bad 6 months or beyond but are still going to need help.  

No argument from me there. But are we sure that your employer qualifies? 

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Your Mom

Your Mom 4805

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Without a doubt.  And to clarify, my employer is one guilty of excessive executive compensation and stock buybacks.  I'm just saying you can be guilty of that and still have a healthy balance sheet and have what every businessman in America thought was enough cash on hand before this.

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Supermarkets seem to be doing well. Home Depot seems pretty crowded. I bet cheap beer sales are good. Amazon is probably doing well. Most retailers, car manufacturers, really most manufacturing, gas suppliers, elective medical are all losers.

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Sgt Hulk

Sgt Hulk 13716

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I think new industries will pop up from this, it will be interesting to see.  I think companies like wework could see a resurgence when smaller firms realize they dont need to pay lease for office space when they can rent out a one time room for conf calls.  In my line of work in the military, we've seen a metric ton of relaxed requirements, statues, and regs waived.  I hope that after all this they see the delegation of authority and requirements that it becomes business as usual instead of going back to the old slow way.  I think and hope that Americans learn a ton from this.  what matters and doesnt matter,  consumerism and consumption.  Maybe the small mom and pops suffer now but they see a renaissance when everyone's back, i hope that educators and teachers get the love they deserve after these parents finish the school year for them.  Hopefully some manufacturing comes back home .

these are all hopes and dreams because after all this is american, americans are what have you done for me lately entitled lazy shits that likely wont learn any lessons from this, see spring break 

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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12461

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1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

One of my customers is a SaaS product for law firms to operate remotely. They are smashing it. 


My ex-girlfriend has serious webmaster skills, a  PHD and is the leading a major university's remote learning division right now. She says that headhunters are breaking down her door.  Kinda wish we'd stayed together. 🙂

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staboner

staboner 4969

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winners to me it will be institutions that needed to digitally transform but just couldn't. government, utilities, infra. hard times now but this will force their hand and they arent in threat of getting shut down. huge opp too for the various supply chains that could assist them there. 

losers - very clearly retail, restaurants and bars. Just fucking crushed now and I just can't see even a sizable chunk coming back anytime soon. I think even in a year if we can get 50% of that somehow back that would be a massive victory. and then all the arms here - commercial real estate for example, catering, food, logistics, etc

What is most interesting to me is the consideration of overheated housing costs. Its a global phenomenon for over a decade now. Its just sitting out there and still growing and its eventually nonsensical and not sustainable. not sure, but it surely needs a good rogering to get levels back to normal. sure fucking glad i sold my house last year. 

 

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staboner

staboner 4969

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37 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

I think new industries will pop up from this, it will be interesting to see.  I think companies like wework could see a resurgence when smaller firms realize they dont need to pay lease for office space when they can rent out a one time room for conf calls.  In my line of work in the military, we've seen a metric ton of relaxed requirements, statues, and regs waived.  I hope that after all this they see the delegation of authority and requirements that it becomes business as usual instead of going back to the old slow way.  I think and hope that Americans learn a ton from this.  what matters and doesnt matter,  consumerism and consumption.  Maybe the small mom and pops suffer now but they see a renaissance when everyone's back, i hope that educators and teachers get the love they deserve after these parents finish the school year for them.  Hopefully some manufacturing comes back home .

these are all hopes and dreams because after all this is american, americans are what have you done for me lately entitled lazy shits that likely wont learn any lessons from this, see spring break 

I am considering expanding my company's consulting into management consulting around just facilitating remote work. not just tech, but people, process, and complete org optimization. huge opp IMO. not sure to what extent its done now so just trying to do a little research. 

Edited by staboner
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Knoxtnhorn

Knoxtnhorn 5975

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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

I have the last few days thinking about the thousands of high school and college students across the country who had blown off stuff recently and were headed towards an exam/test/project due date they were totally unprepared for.

 

Or teachers that were supposed to get their observations completed the week after spring break.  I know one ...

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

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That's the damn truth right there. Outside sales still has its place in some situations, but a lot of executives are about to find out that Inside teams are a preferable option in most scenarios. 

You shut your whore mouth... I really enjoy my outside sales job.

In all honesty there will be a lasting change to the way business is done. I hope that I can make some smart moves and count myself among the winners.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10859

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4 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Amazon will be more dominant after this than before

Actually, I think this is the sea-change event that sees direct-to-consumer ("D2C") eCommerce explode beyond any capability Bezos has to exploit economies of scale.

UPS and FedEx are better plays in my opinion.

For software, I'm buying Shopify (TSE:SHOP).  There are 2 other big players:

- WooCommerce, a WordPress extension, both privately owned by Automattic, which is valued at $3B.

- Magento, owned by Adobe

The 3 together own 50% of the top 1 million websites.

Of the 3, Shopify is the only true multi-tenant SaaS and it's a matter of time before someone buys them for a jabillion.

I'm not a market wizard and would welcome advice on how much to buy and when from someone that has the chart voodoo:

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=tsx+shopify

There are some new players emerging.  Benihoff has a native-flex offering but I don't know much about it.  Austin's own BigCommerce (600 employees) is garnering respect but is unfortunately private so no way for the public to cash in.  They too are going to get bought.

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achooloco

achooloco 1072

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11 hours ago, ernest_t_bass said:

 

  • At home meal services - We currently are doing Hello Fresh.  What are some others?

Short term yes on this one but think nyc was a pilot market for these types of companies and after a few months, almost everyone cancels. They're not bad, and do help novice cooks but humans are either too lazy or too smart; they either just go back to eating out or get into cooking/realize it's cheaper to do your own shopping. Maybe fear of infection keeps them afloat longer but in the long run no one uses them forever, least not anyone I know.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10859

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4 hours ago, riloh05 said:

zoom has some very real security issues...also they own the content that is on the screen. not a good option when you dig into those details. it did not make it through the 1st phase of our security review.

winners- those with cash on deck

losers- those without cash

good call on Zoom security and IP ownership.

same with Facetime.

we're moving from Skype to Teams for the video quality.

 

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