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Winners and Losers - COVID

ernest_t_bass

By ernest_t_bass
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10864

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, staboner said:

What is most interesting to me is the consideration of overheated housing costs. Its a global phenomenon for over a decade now. Its just sitting out there and still growing and its eventually nonsensical and not sustainable. not sure, but it surely needs a good rogering to get levels back to normal. sure fucking glad i sold my house last year.

In the next global pandemic, where do you want to quarantine for 3 months?:

- apartment/condo multifamily box

- house

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2300 Nueces

2300 Nueces 163

Posted
Posted (edited)

Losers: anyone who ever wanted anonymity in their personal lives.  The Federal Reserve Bank just snuck legislation into the "Corona Virus" panic package that creates a new currency.  You will all now be tracked in everything you do.

 

Winner:  Federal Reserve Bank. (It's a private cartel, not a part of our government.)  All our info and everything we do will be owned by the Fed.

 

New Blockchain E Dollar

Edited by 2300 Nueces
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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Losers: anyone who ever wanted anonymity in their personal lives.  The Federal Reserve Bank just snuck legislation into the "Corona Virus" panic package that creates a new currency.  You will all now be tracked in everything you do.

 

Winner:  Federal Reserve Bank.  All our info and everything we do will be owned by the Fed.

 

New Blockchain E Dollar

That didn't happen.

 

 

yet

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5321

Posted
Posted

I think the biggest loser in this is going to be commercial real estate.  This is going to change the office market and there will be a serious drop in occupancy in the future.

 

One winner is suburban development.  People are going to want less density, local stores and with the ability to work from home, will not need to commute.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, achooloco said:

Short term yes on this one but think nyc was a pilot market for these types of companies and after a few months, almost everyone cancels. They're not bad, and do help novice cooks but humans are either too lazy or too smart; they either just go back to eating out or get into cooking/realize it's cheaper to do your own shopping. Maybe fear of infection keeps them afloat longer but in the long run no one uses them forever, least not anyone I know.

I bought APRN (Blue Apron) despite being a longtime Hello Fresh customer (German company, not listed on NYSE/NASDAQ) and made some nice money on the ride from $5 to $12 in essentially a week, before ultimately selling because I agree with you. 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted

For those saying that the new normal is going to be just closing business over the phone-- I don't know what kind of outside sales you guys are in, but all the enterprise field sales guys I know are struggling and dying right now. Their resorting to being inside sales people isn't working and it's an unmitigated disaster across the industry unless you sell Zoom or something else integral to distributing workforces. Further, while onsite contractors and services and vendors are the first to be put on ice; I've seen big implementations and projects frozen across the board, from Deloitte and Accenture to mid-market partners supporting large enterprise projects like SFDC or ServiceNow to small integrations and projects, they will come back and the need will still be there.

Losers: Sports, Entertainment (Six Flags, Crayola Land, Disney World, etc.), Schools

Winners: Homeowners with cash who want a good deal on contractor services. You'll never get a better cash deal than now for a new fence, gutters, roof, landscaping, etc. These folks are usually small businesses, these are luxury items usually, and they usually have a crew to pay and are cash business with week-to-week liquidity issues.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20949

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Posted

I don't know what the state of manufacturing in China is, which complicates this take, but Nintendo.  Animal Crossing is the game for our time and a lot more people are playing it/talking about it than otherwise would be I think if not for this fucked up timeline we're on.  My wife just ordered a Switch.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54230

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Incredulity said:

I have the last few days thinking about the thousands of high school and college students across the country who had blown off stuff recently and were headed towards an exam/test/project due date they were totally unprepared for.

 

I had 4 of my 50 undergrads show up for my first Zoom meeting yesterday.

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21907

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I don't know what the state of manufacturing in China is, which complicates this take, but Nintendo.  Animal Crossing is the game for our time and a lot more people are playing it/talking about it than otherwise would be I think if not for this fucked up timeline we're on.  My wife just ordered a Switch.

My daughter just asked me to get this for her and I had no clue what it was

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
Just now, Celery Man said:

i don't totally get it but you have an island, you take care of the island and do things, as real time passes time in the game passes. you can do a lot of creative things, little cute animals, interact with other people and their islands (I think).

Out.

(Thanks for the response though)

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20949

Posted
Posted

yeah it doesn't seem like my thing but people are nuts for it.  I texted my nephew when i saw stuff about the release and he was staying up until midnight for it.  my wife getting a switch for it, just ended a meeting shooting the shit about how to keep people engaged and... engineering, HR, executive admin all joking about visiting islands or whatever.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54230

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

i don't totally get it but you have an island, you take care of the island and do things, as real time passes time in the game passes. you can do a lot of creative things, little cute animals, interact with other people and their islands (I think).

source.gif

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Winners:

Recurring revenue (subscription) businesses

grocery

grocery delivery

amazon

zoom

cloud services/saas 

young people

pharma

 

Losers:

old people

unhealthy people

religious people

retail

small businesses (especially restaurants)

[/b]sports and live entertainment [/b]

 

Don't jump on the grocery delivery train just yet.  It's still not profitable.  Sure, people like it but it has its ceiling and it's a pretty low one at that.

Yeah, unhealthy people.  Depending on how serious this gets, people might take their general health more seriously.  (I'm very doubtful about this, BTW.)

Non food retail was in a tough place to begin with.  A lot of these chains had high debt level and low cash reserves to begin with.  Can't imagine how a lot of them get through this.

Sports will make a major comeback.  People forgot much they like sports.  Maybe not live and in person for awhile but when the NBA starts back up, it'll have huge ratings.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10864

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Rougarou said:

For those saying that the new normal is going to be just closing business over the phone-- I don't know what kind of outside sales you guys are in, but all the enterprise field sales guys I know are struggling and dying right now. Their resorting to being inside sales people isn't working and it's an unmitigated disaster across the industry unless you sell Zoom or something else integral to distributing workforces. Further, while onsite contractors and services and vendors are the first to be put on ice; I've seen big implementations and projects frozen across the board, from Deloitte and Accenture to mid-market partners supporting large enterprise projects like SFDC or ServiceNow to small integrations and projects, they will come back and the need will still be there.

Losers: Sports, Entertainment (Six Flags, Crayola Land, Disney World, etc.), Schools

Winners: Homeowners with cash who want a good deal on contractor services. You'll never get a better cash deal than now for a new fence, gutters, roof, landscaping, etc. These folks are usually small businesses, these are luxury items usually, and they usually have a crew to pay and are cash business with week-to-week liquidity issues.

The big 7 global system integrators (Accenture/Deloitte/south asians) that rely on bloat are going to pivot to lift/shift and have to deliver actual value without pork.  Prem shit running in the cloud is not SaaS and not multi-tenant and customers are going to demand 2020s architecture.  There have been some industries that were impervious to any incursion on their 15-year-old code on-prem linus blanket (architecture, construction, car sales/service).  It's now rabbit season on all of those comfortable legacy bases (Sage Timberline for example).  SNOW is killing it and will continue to do so because they are one of the new backbones of a virtual economy.

There are multi-hundred-million-revenue businesses still running Quickbooks for their G/L.  I shit you not.  You can no longer put off the inevitable and kick the can down the road on core infrastructure.

Once we get the antibody tests in-person sales will resume.  But you have to solve problems and do so quickly.  "Selling" is going to be replaced by "Solving".

All of the in-person people-gathering businesses, like sports, theme parks, schools, will come back when we get antibody tests.

Winners: Nanotech, Biopharma, and the inverse of the just-in-time business model.

Losers: Anyone *currently* with a bar or restaurant.  They'll be back this fall.  Those that don't die.

Biggest loser: concur on commercial real estate.  Absolutely positively toast.  Giant office towers are going to be converted to residential.

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Hozz

Hozz 1017

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Posted

All our kids are out of the house so its just wife and I at home.  We trialed all the meal delivery services that had some kind of discounted first order, which is almost all of them.  This was 3 years ago so there were fewer choices but we probably tried 6-7 of them.  We settled on Home Chef and have been getting them pretty steady since then.  Their base price is $10 a plate, free shipping on orders over $50.  Every meal has some kind of customization option though so you can get a different protein, more of a protein, etc.  If you are cooking for two I would highly recommend trialing them at least.  First order is like half off.  We skip some weeks, but not many.  My wife has become like a 500% better cook since we started and we have a lot less wasted produce and leftovers.  The packaging is very efficient...our normal 3 meals for two a week comes in a 12"x12"x12" box, well insulated.  Proteins are sandwiched between two layers of those reusable ice pack things on the bottom with all the other ingredients separated by meal in their own bag on top.  Then you get a recipe card for each meal.

They have an insane amount of variety, you will cook and eat dishes you probably have never heard of much less tried.  They have an online cookbook section with the recipe for every meal you have ordered and we have tried 342 unique recipes and maybe 10 of them sucked.

Every so many weeks you order they give you 3 'free' boxes to share with new customers.  They call them free but they are really $50 off your first order.  They expire after 60 days if you don't send them to anyone and all of my real life friends and family interested in this got an email from me a long time ago.  So I am currently sitting on 15 of them, if you are interested PM an email address and I will send you one.  I think the regular new customer trial is $30 off so this is a pretty good deal.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

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Posted

Work at a big 4 accounting firm. We have been told they are eliminating variable comp (bonuses) for all employees this year and reducing partner comp by about 20%.  This in an effort to not have to layoff low performers.   High performers - Losers. Shit ass employees and lazy partners - winners.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

The big 7 global system integrators (Accenture/Deloitte/south asians) that rely on bloat are going to pivot to lift/shift and have to deliver actual value without pork.  Prem shit running in the cloud is not SaaS and not multi-tenant and customers are going to demand 2020s architecture.  There have been some industries that were impervious to any incursion on their 15-year-old code on-prem linus blanket (architecture, construction, car sales/service).  It's now rabbit season on all of those comfortable legacy bases (Sage Timberline for example).  SNOW is killing it and will continue to do so because they are one of the new backbones of a virtual economy.

There are multi-hundred-million-revenue businesses still running Quickbooks for their G/L.  I shit you not.  You can no longer put off the inevitable and kick the can down the road on core infrastructure.

 

All of the in-person people-gathering businesses, like sports, theme parks, schools, will come back when we get antibody tests.

Winners: Nanotech, Biopharma, and the inverse of the just-in-time business model.

Losers: Anyone *currently* with a bar or restaurant.  They'll be back this fall.  Those that don't die.

Biggest loser: concur on commercial real estate.  Absolutely positively toast.  Giant office towers are going to be converted to residential.

Got this in an email (not my analysis/research, but it makes sense):

Biggest change vs. two weeks ago - industries that were benefiting from pull-forward have started to see moderation in growth.

In the tech space, we are seeing several dynamics. Cloud (IaaS) appears to have seen a near-term pick-up in demand (consumption of preexisting customers accelerating, some pull-forward of deals), with AWS and Azure struggling to meet demand (seeing capacity constraints). IT security and remote work tech remains strong, while networking equipment growth appears to be slowing. 

For software, feedback across SaaS vendors has been mixed. IT and collaboration oriented tools like ServiceNow and Atlassian appear to be faring well, while the application vendors (Adobe, Salesforce, and Workday) have seen sales cycles elongate, as have IT ops vendors (Splunk). ERP and HR software upgrades are also seen deferring, likely impacting SAP.

In consumer tech, both mobile and consumer electronics are seeing downside demand, with smartphone shipments likely down 10%; public safety radio equipment refresh also delaying. Marketing budgets are actively getting cut, with digital advertising hit as a result.

Quote

Once we get the antibody tests in-person sales will resume.  But you have to solve problems and do so quickly.  "Selling" is going to be replaced by "Solving".

No offense, but this sounds so old and out of touch, like something a career-BOH guy in a cost center would say.

Edited by Rougarou
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10864

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Got this in an email (not my analysis/research, but it makes sense):

Biggest change vs. two weeks ago - industries that were benefiting from pull-forward have started to see moderation in growth.

In the tech space, we are seeing several dynamics. Cloud (IaaS) appears to have seen a near-term pick-up in demand (consumption of preexisting customers accelerating, some pull-forward of deals), with AWS and Azure struggling to meet demand (seeing capacity constraints). IT security and remote work tech remains strong, while networking equipment growth appears to be slowing. 

For software, feedback across SaaS vendors has been mixed. IT and collaboration oriented tools like ServiceNow and Atlassian appear to be faring well, while the application vendors (Adobe, Salesforce, and Workday) have seen sales cycles elongate, as have IT ops vendors (Splunk). ERP and HR software upgrades are also seen deferring, likely impacting SAP.

In consumer tech, both mobile and consumer electronics are seeing downside demand, with smartphone shipments likely down 10%; public safety radio equipment refresh also delaying. Marketing budgets are actively getting cut, with digital advertising hit as a result.

No offense, but this sounds so old and out of touch, like something a career-BOH guy in a cost center would say.

IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), SaaS (Software), PaaS (Platform) and several other acronyms are all Cloud.  Hosting and applications are not the same thing.

AWS and Azure are not the only hosting players not mentioning GCS is criminal.  SNOW and Atlassian are 2 totally different things.  SNOW is a Service Management platform.  Adobe, Salesforce and Workday don't make apps.  They are systems of record, just like Oracle, SAP, Oracle/NetSuite and Microsoft Dynamics 365.  Splunk is big data, not DevOps.

In short, whoever wrote that knows fuckall about the IT industry in my opinion.

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Serak The Preparer

Serak The Preparer 3431

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), SaaS (Software), PaaS (Platform) and several other acronyms are all Cloud.  Hosting and applications are not the same thing.

AWS and Azure are not the only hosting players not mentioning GCS is criminal.  SNOW and Atlassian are 2 totally different things.  SNOW is a Service Management platform.  Adobe, Salesforce and Workday don't make apps.  They are systems of record, just like Oracle, SAP, Oracle/NetSuite and Microsoft Dynamics 365.  Splunk is big data, not DevOps.

In short, whoever wrote that knows fuckall about the IT industry in my opinion.

You have some non-orthodox opinions. When mentioning IaaS, it is ok to to only talk about Azure and AWS. Yes GCP exists but it is a distant 3rd. There are use cases where GCP is superior but there is a reason why they are pushing containers and talk about enabling multicloud where AWS and Azure don't.

When talking about SNOW, I think you are talking about Snowflake? If so, totally agree that they are a company to watch and enable a lot of backend services through data warehousing, but would not call them a service platform.

Saying Splunk is big data and not DevOps is a weird statement. It's not either/or. Splunk has security in it's DNA but is a major player in AIOps, with goal of zero-touch IT Management.

And finally, dissing the author for calling Workday, Adobe, and SFDC for calling them application vendors just seems, well, odd. That is that they are. They sell applications. Every research house on the planet will call them application vendors.

I am not saying you are wrong on any of these things as terms certainly get stretched by vendors, users, and research firms, but you are the one on edge of industry thinking in this case.

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Js1

Js1 85336

Posted
Posted
On 4/1/2020 at 11:41 AM, Celery Man said:

i don't totally get it but you have an island, you take care of the island and do things, as real time passes time in the game passes. you can do a lot of creative things, little cute animals, interact with other people and their islands (I think).

It’s so fucking relaxing when you just want to avoid all this shit. 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You have some non-orthodox opinions. When mentioning IaaS, it is ok to to only talk about Azure and AWS. Yes GCP exists but it is a distant 3rd. There are use cases where GCP is superior but there is a reason why they are pushing containers and talk about enabling multicloud where AWS and Azure don't.

When talking about SNOW, I think you are talking about Snowflake? If so, totally agree that they are a company to watch and enable a lot of backend services through data warehousing, but would not call them a service platform.

Saying Splunk is big data and not DevOps is a weird statement. It's not either/or. Splunk has security in it's DNA but is a major player in AIOps, with goal of zero-touch IT Management.

And finally, dissing the author for calling Workday, Adobe, and SFDC for calling them application vendors just seems, well, odd. That is that they are. They sell applications. Every research house on the planet will call them application vendors.

I am not saying you are wrong on any of these things as terms certainly get stretched by vendors, users, and research firms, but you are the one on edge of industry thinking in this case.

Also to be fair to the snippet; it was some guy trying to sell me his research/data and was meant more as a teaser or abstract than anything really weighty.

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted

more Wall Street wins on the backs of Main Street:

Quote

The Small Business Administration has bumped up to 1% the interest rate lenders may charge small businesses under a $350 billion U.S. relief program after lenders complained that the previous approved rate of 0.5% was below even their own cost of funds.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-unveils-loan-guidance-for-small-businesses-hurt-by-virus

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
On 4/2/2020 at 3:24 PM, Enchubben said:

Work at a big 4 accounting firm. We have been told they are eliminating variable comp (bonuses) for all employees this year and reducing partner comp by about 20%.  This in an effort to not have to layoff low performers.   High performers - Losers. Shit ass employees and lazy partners - winners.

Is it Deloitte?  Cause I have a serious question for y'all regarding Logistics and your Austin team.  Lotsa money on the line. 

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Js1

Js1 85336

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/3/2020 at 6:44 AM, Celery Man said:

 


Target has or had switch lights.

 

Fuck those expensive game boys that don’t even hook up to the tv 

Splurge spending on an actual switch last year turned into the best investment I’ve made 

Edited by Js1
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