It's Census Day!

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Maybe they should have asked you your gender than ??  That ,and today gender seems to be a moving target day in and day out.

They did

[Samson's Wig 3,192]

Yeah, those gender questions are bound to upset some folks.  Although if they had offered more options that would have upset some folks as well.   Maybe they should just stop asking questions.

[atomheartbevo 89,686]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

when does the counting officially end?  I think Austin is so close to 1.0mm, that the literal end date will be the deciding factor.  Obviously new moves to Austin have slowed markedly with Covid-19, but there'll also be an exodus into Austin this summer.  I'll also be curious to see how San Jose grows and if Austin catches it for #10, if Houston catches Chicago for #3 (doubtful for 2020, but certain for 2030).  San Antonio is certain to overtake Philly for #6.  

Crazy to think when my dad taught me about the census in 1980, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Baltimore were all in the Top 10.  We know what has happened to those last two and Philly will probably be out of it by 2030.  

It’s based on where you were living on April 1st.  

It doesn’t matter if somebody moves in the summer, they will still be counted where they were living April 1st.

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

47 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

Yeah, those gender questions are bound to upset some folks.  Although if they had offered more options that would have upset some folks as well.   Maybe they should just stop asking questions.

Or just ask Google or Facebook. Seems a bit more efficient and accurate to me. 

[Guest Lobo]

Like it or not, and I'm someone who has done some active work on LGBTQ+ rights, the amount of estrogen and testosterone in your body has an effect on your long-term health and the myriad challenges and benefits that come with that.  And because of that, there's a Medicaid budgetary element to that.  A state with younger females/trans is just gonna be overall cheaper to deal with than a state with older males/trans.  You don't get to pick and choose which parts of science fit your political agenda. 

If gender is a spectrum however, so is race.  If these ancestor/cheek swab services have shown us anything, it's that we have all kinds of races and ethnicities and nationalities peppered throughout our DNA.  I have estrogen in my body, I have Jewish blood in my body, I have Hispanic ethnicity in me, I have Swabian blood in me, I am pretty close to ambidextrous (I'd say about 55/45), I have OCD and ADD that sometimes borders on mental illness.  I am walking, talking spectrum of humanity.  Most of us are.  The U.S. Government sure as shit isn't going to pick up on the subtleties of that, but I get that they're trying to start.  

Edited April 2, 2020 by Lobo

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,907]

I can just imagine the higher ups in Amazon/Facebook/Google snickering when they read their census questions thinking that they could get 10 times the information out of their data banks anytime they want it.

[Paper_jam 831]

I was honestly expecting more questions about income level, level of education, what sector I work in, how many cars do I own, do I jerk it left or right-handed, etc.  I was almost disappointed in a way.

 

 

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

5 hours ago, Samson's Wig said:

I wrote in Irish/English/French/German/Swedish/Norwegian/Danish/Dutch/Canadian/Australian/Spanish/Portuguese/Swiss.

I know I missed a few but I got tired.

Listen here, my mick limey frog kraut meatball frozen windmill dam canuck ozzie senor senhor cheese eating friend, I'm gonna make so much trouble for you you won't know what hit you!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

according to the site Texas is 42nd in response rate so far. NY is right behind us, so I will cut them some slack.  Means Texas is 43rd in response. 

[MissingInAction 25,104]

I'm a middle aged white male FUPM

Is that a box i can check?

[Heisenberg 162]

I won't be responding to the census.  I haven't responded to one in 40 years.  I call bullshit on that noise.

[GRHorn 105]

So what are the reasons for refusing to take part in the census?  Just had an awkward interaction with census worker asking about our neighbors. Said they refused to talk to her. Asked if we knew how many people lived there. I said yes, but you’ll have to talk to them about it. Now she’s parked in his driveway. Waiting him out?  All a little weird. 

[TwiceHorn 31,489]

On 4/2/2020 at 10:57 AM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I'm Czech, my wife is Irish.  I let each of my kids pick which one they wanted to be.  Not really clear what I should have put otherwise.

Oily bohunk and bogtrotter.  Kids oily bohunk bogtrotters.

Edited September 7, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[TwiceHorn 31,489]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:19 AM, Heisenberg said:

I won't be responding to the census.  I haven't responded to one in 40 years.  I call bullshit on that noise.

[Updawg 2,267]

Thanks for the reminder. Just did it

[workswithseed 2,112]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

[bolverk 29,683]

After months of delay, the Census Bureau is set to release U.S. population figures.

After months of delay, the Census Bureau on Monday is scheduled to finally release the nation’s once-a-decade population totals, establishing the number of members of Congress and electoral votes each state will have for the next 10 years.

The new figures are expected to result in new congressional districts in the fast-growing Sun Belt states of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Texas at the expense of states in the Midwest and Northeast — Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio are certain to lose congressional seats based on the bureau’s previous population projections.

The constitutionally mandated count of everyone living in the United States and congressional reapportionment were hampered and delayed by an array of Trump administration efforts to remove undocumented immigrants from the count, a shift that most likely would have increased the number of Republican-held districts in the next Congress.

Releasing the census figures months behind schedule will leave less time for individual states to draw and debate lines for congressional and state legislative districts. Republicans control the redistricting process in far more states than do Democrats, a result of both G.O.P. dominance in down-ballot elections and Democratic efforts to implement independent redistricting commissions in states where they have controlled state government, such as California, Colorado and Virginia.

Republicans have for months signaled they will press their advantage once the new figures are released, aiming to maximize the number of seats they hold in Congress by drawing districts beneficial to their candidates. The delay in releasing the census figures will limit the amount of time available for court challenges of newly drawn maps before the 2022 midterm campaigns begin.

The Census Bureau has scheduled a briefing at 3 p.m. to release its data.

[bolverk 29,683]

 

[bolverk 29,683]

U.S. Population Over Last Decade Grew at Slowest Rate Since 1930s
With immigration leveling off and a declining birthrate, the United States may be entering an era of substantially lower population growth, demographers said.

Over the past decade, the United States population grew at the slowest rate since the 1930s, the Census Bureau reported on Monday, a remarkable slackening that was driven by a leveling off of immigration and a declining birthrate.

The bureau also reported changes to the nation’s political map: The long-running trend of the South and the West gaining population — and congressional representation — at the expense of the Northeast and the Midwest, continued, with Texas gaining two seats and Florida, one. California, long a leader in population growth, lost a seat for the first time in history.

The data will be used to reapportion seats in Congress, and, in turn, the Electoral College, based on new state population counts. The count is critical for billions of dollars in federal funding as well as state and local planning around everything from schools to housing to hospitals.

<snip>

The new decennial census counted 331,449,281 Americans as of April 1, 2020. The total was up by just 7.4 percent over the previous decade.

Combined with the decline in inflows of immigrants, and shifting age demographics — there are now more Americans 80 and older than 2 or younger — the United States may be entering an era of substantially lower population growth, demographers said, putting it with the countries of Europe and East Asia that face serious long-term challenges with rapidly aging populations.

“This is a big deal,” said Ronald Lee, a demographer who founded the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging at the University of California at Berkeley. “If it stays lower like this, it means the end of American exceptionalism in this regard.”

It used to be clear where the country was headed demographically, Professor Lee said — faster growth than many other rich nations. But that has changed.

“Right now it is very murky,” he said.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Basically a nothing burger. Perhaps a small gain by the GOP but it ultimately comes down to how the state legislatures redraw the maps.  I thought I recall hearing Texas might get 3 new seats. Perhaps too many Texans ignored the census forms.

[bolverk 29,683]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Basically a nothing burger. Perhaps a small gain by the GOP but it ultimately comes down to how the state legislatures redraw the maps.  I thought I recall hearing Texas might get 3 new seats. Perhaps too many Texans ignored the census forms.

Yeah, the article I quoted got a little into the apportionment for Texas being less than the three that some were expecting, but there was some other potential CR verbiage so I snipped out the middle section.

[Surly Bevo 24,971]

In electoral college politics probably nothing in House politics not so sure.  The Ds currently have 6 seats over the Rs (5 seats vacant at the moment with chance for Ds to expand a bit) But you gotta figure Texas, FL, MT are all gonna draw it up to go firmly R, NC likely R, CO and OR firmly D and then which seat does Michigan toss...they are considered a D state but the Rs control both houses of their legislature at the moment.  

[DonkeyCigars 143]

Matches the narrative and business case of populations movement of people leaving high tax states for lower (e.g. CA -> TX and NY-> FL)

[dcar00 14,210]

1 hour ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Matches the narrative and business case of populations movement of people leaving high tax states for lower (e.g. CA -> TX and NY-> FL)

my guess is that some CA is moving to Colorado also.  not sure if CO is higher tax state or not.

[bolverk 29,683]

Here's a table I put together with the latest Census figures as well as the state/local tax burden for 2019 from the Tax Foundation. States are sorted by percent population growth.

Not all high tax states had slow growth: Minnesota, Oregon, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Delaware outpaced the nation in growth and have relatively high tax burdens.

Not all low tax states had high growth: Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Indiana, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi lagged the nation in growth and have relatively low tax burdens.

Obviously, there's much more to determining growth than just that single indicator.

		Population									State & Local Effective Tax Burden
		2020	2010		% chg	rank		# chg	rank		Rate	Rank
30	Utah	3,285,874	2,763,885		18.9%	1		521,989	12		9.6%	21
38	Idaho	1,839,106	1,567,582		17.3%	2		271,524	22		9.6%	20
2	Texas	29,145,505	25,145,561		15.9%	3		3,999,944	1		8.0%	4
47	North Dakota	779,094	672,591		15.8%	4		106,503	33		8.9%	11
32	Nevada	3,104,614	2,700,551		15.0%	5		404,063	17		9.7%	22
21	Colorado	5,773,714	5,029,196		14.8%	6		744,518	9		9.4%	17
13	Washington	7,705,281	6,724,540		14.6%	7		980,741	5		9.8%	24
3	Florida	21,538,187	18,801,310		14.6%	8		2,736,877	2		8.8%	7
14	Arizona	7,151,502	6,392,017		11.9%	9		759,485	8		8.7%	6
23	South Carolina	5,118,425	4,625,364		10.7%	10		493,061	14		8.9%	12
27	Oregon	4,237,256	3,831,074		10.6%	11		406,182	16		11.1%	41
8	Georgia	10,711,908	9,687,653		10.6%	12		1,024,255	4		8.9%	9
45	Delaware	989,948	897,934		10.2%	13		92,014	37		10.3%	31
44	Montana	1,084,225	989,415		9.6%	14		94,810	36		10.1%	30
9	North Carolina	10,439,388	9,535,483		9.5%	15		903,905	6		9.5%	19
46	South Dakota	886,667	814,180		8.9%	16		72,487	39		9.1%	14
16	Tennessee	6,910,840	6,346,105		8.9%	17		564,735	11		7.0%	2
12	Virginia	8,631,393	8,001,024		7.9%	18		630,369	10		10.0%	28
22	Minnesota	5,706,494	5,303,925		7.6%	19		402,569	18		12.1%	46
37	Nebraska	1,961,504	1,826,341		7.4%	20		135,163	31		10.3%	32
15	Massachusetts	7,029,917	6,547,629		7.4%	21		482,288	15		10.5%	36
40	Hawaii	1,455,271	1,360,301		7.0%	22		94,970	35		12.7%	48
19	Maryland	6,154,913	5,773,552		6.6%	23		381,361	19		11.8%	45
1	California	39,538,223	37,253,956		6.1%	24		2,284,267	3		11.5%	43
11	New Jersey	9,288,994	8,791,894		5.7%	25		497,100	13		11.7%	44
28	Oklahoma	3,959,353	3,751,351		5.5%	26		208,002	25		8.2%	5
24	Alabama	5,024,279	4,779,736		5.1%	27		244,543	24		9.0%	13
31	Iowa	3,190,369	3,046,355		4.7%	28		144,014	30		10.8%	38
17	Indiana	6,785,528	6,483,802		4.7%	29		301,726	20		8.9%	10
41	New Hampshire	1,377,529	1,316,470		4.6%	30		61,059	40		9.7%	23
43	Rhode Island	1,097,379	1,052,567		4.3%	31		44,812	42		11.4%	42
4	New York	20,201,249	19,378,102		4.2%	32		823,147	7		14.1%	50
26	Kentucky	4,505,836	4,339,367		3.8%	33		166,469	29		9.9%	25
20	Wisconsin	5,893,718	5,686,986		3.6%	34		206,732	26		10.7%	37
33	Arkansas	3,011,524	2,915,918		3.3%	35		95,606	34		10.4%	34
48	Alaska	733,391	710,231		3.3%	36		23,160	45		5.8%	1
18	Missouri	6,177,224	5,988,927		3.1%	37		188,297	28		9.2%	16
35	Kansas	2,937,880	2,853,118		3.0%	38		84,762	38		10.1%	29
36	New Mexico	2,117,522	2,059,179		2.8%	39		58,343	41		8.8%	8
49	Vermont	643,077	625,741		2.8%	40		17,336	46		12.3%	47
25	Louisiana	4,657,757	4,533,372		2.7%	41		124,385	32		9.2%	15
42	Maine	1,362,359	1,328,361		2.6%	42		33,998	43		11.0%	39
5	Pennsylvania	13,002,700	12,702,379		2.4%	43		300,321	21		10.4%	35
50	Wyoming	576,851	563,626		2.3%	44		13,225	47		7.0%	3
7	Ohio	11,799,448	11,536,504		2.3%	45		262,944	23		10.3%	33
10	Michigan	10,077,331	9,883,640		2.0%	46		193,691	27		10.0%	27
29	Connecticut	3,605,944	3,574,097		0.9%	47		31,847	44		12.8%	49
6	Illinois	12,812,508	12,830,632		-0.1%	48		-18,124	49		11.1%	40
34	Mississippi	2,961,279	2,967,297		-0.2%	49		-6,018	48		9.5%	18
39	West Virginia	1,793,716	1,852,994		-3.2%	50		-59,278	50		9.9%	26

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[bolverk 29,683]

There's a valid concern coming from some corner regarding the accuracy of the count, given the unusual circumstances of responding to the door-to-door folks during the Time of Covid along with some other CR stuff. That said, I just heard that some statisticians will be looking at the data and will be releasing their findings in June.

While it's not exactly common, Census counts have changed on occasion in the past when challenged.

[bolverk 29,683]

One thing that's really kind of astounding -- even with a potential under count -- is that Texas added 4 million people to its baseline population within the last ten years. That's like adding either the state of Oklahoma or Oregon to our total or the sum of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska.

[elfenix 34,266]

fuck oklahoma

[Paper_jam 831]

Seeing articles that New York lost a congressional seat by only 89 people. Damn, that's close.

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

Which is weird because I met 90 people in the last year that started their conversation with, "Living in New York as long as I have..."

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

On 4/26/2021 at 6:31 PM, bolverk said:

There's a valid concern coming from some corner regarding the accuracy of the count, given the unusual circumstances of responding to the door-to-door folks during the Time of Covid along with some other CR stuff. That said, I just heard that some statisticians will be looking at the data and will be releasing their findings in June.

While it's not exactly common, Census counts have changed on occasion in the past when challenged.

States always complain that they were under-counted but does anyone believe that we even came close to correctly counting everyone last year?  Maybe there's nothing that can be done but at least we all need to admit the 2020 census was a failure.  I know the Constitution requires a count every decade but does it forbid more frequent updates? Perhaps we should plan on a 2022 or 2024 census.

The census is more than just congressional seats. It determines how federal money is distributed. Texas is losing federal money (our tax dollars) because we did such a bad job convincing Texans to be counted.

[Guest Lobo]

yeah, I feel like the Texas census was run by Judge Smails walking around the state telling the census taker saying, "don't count that one, I was interfered with."  

I find it bizarre we only added 2 seats, we should have had 3.  And it's really gonna hurt long-term in the form of federal dollar allocations.  Especially as the Legislature is finally drilling down on the Medicaid equation for Texas.  That shit ain't gonna merry up well.  

Must be that record immigrant turnout at the border, eh?  

Seriously, can we do anything fucking right anymore as a government or electorate?  

Edited April 28, 2021 by Lobo

[bolverk 29,683]

24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

States always complain that they were under-counted but does anyone believe that we even came close to correctly counting everyone last year?  Maybe there's nothing that can be done but at least we all need to admit the 2020 census was a failure.  I know the Constitution requires a count every decade but does it forbid more frequent updates? Perhaps we should plan on a 2022 or 2024 census.

The census is more than just congressional seats. It determines how federal money is distributed. Texas is losing federal money (our tax dollars) because we did such a bad job convincing Texans to be counted.

I should clarify that I've never heard of a corrected count at the state level, but it's definitely occurred in a few communities. I think Plainview was able to get their 2010 count adjusted but don't quote me on that (my job requires I work with a lot of Census and other socioeconomic data). Regardless, the expense and effort of doing a Census more often than the 10 years required by the Constitution is likely a major barrier to having it done more than that, which is fine assuming that they get an accurate count in the first place.

For the intercensal years, the Census Bureau provides annual estimates through two separate programs: the American Community Survey (household based that estimates all sort of demographic info) and the Population Estimates Program (different methodology that just looks at population and household counts - this is the "official" one that's more commonly cited). These estimates have historically been shown to be pretty damned accurate when the next actual count comes along, but of course they rely on getting the right numbers to start with.

And, believe me, I'm very aware that these figures play into more than just the allocation of congressional seats and drawing districts. A fuck load of federal funding formulas are predicated on these figures along with a shit ton of investment decisions made by the private sector in the selection of sites for stores within a specific geography or even where to locate new plants by factoring in the availability and quality of the workforce. Hell, even calculating the local unemployment rate starts with getting an accurate count every 10 years for recalibration.

The effects of a bad count can screw up so many layers of decision-making in both the public and private spheres that it's unimaginable.

 

[Pancho 44,837]

 

[WBT 20,586]

18.8 million seems like a lot

[Ag with kids 581]

4 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Interdasting...

The actual article doesn't match that twitter headline...

[Guest Lobo]

What the fuck?  A 6% undercount?  Seriously?  Are we living in a "The West Wing" outtake?  

[Js1 85,353]

Well that was the goal

[Ag with kids 581]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

What the fuck?  A 6% undercount?  Seriously?  Are we living in a "The West Wing" outtake?  

As I posted earlier, that twitter headline is not accurate.

This is from the actual article:

Quote

 

2020 Census Undercounted Hispanic, Black and Native American Residents

The Census Bureau said the overall population total of 323 million was accurate but counts of minorities were skewed. Advocacy groups promised to go to court.

Quote

Those net undercounts of racial minorities, which have historically plagued decennial census counts

Quote

“But the results also include some limitations — the 2020 census undercounted many of the same population groups we have historically undercounted, and it overcounted others.”

Quote

By the bureau’s estimates, the 2020 tally incorrectly counted 18.8 million residents, double-counting some, wrongly including others and missing others entirely, even as it came extremely close to reaching an accurate count of the overall population.

I'm so shocked that a twitter headline would be inaccurate...or, maybe, misleading.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Ag with kids

[Guest Lobo]

Twitter can't be wrong.  All the best Presidents of shitty companies post there.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Lobo

[bolverk 29,683]

For heavy users of demographic data, like me, it's important to keep in mind what's going on here.

First, they're comparing two separate data sets against the actual count. The first is a survey (Post-Enumeration Survey or PES) and the second is an analysis of other data they have available, such as vital records, international migration, Medicare enrollment, and other shit).

Right now, they don't have a lot of the above data by race, but their survey is telling them there were statistically significant undercounts among Blacks and Latinos. Yes, there were also undercounts in 2010, but the 2020 undercount among Latinos is far worse than before.

Quote

 

The PES (survey) data show that:

• The Black or African American alone or in combination population had a statistically significant undercount of 3.30%. This is not statistically different from the 2.06% undercount in 2010.
• The Hispanic or Latino population had a statistically significant undercount rate of 4.99%. This is statistically different from a 1.54% undercount in 2010.
• American Indian or Alaska Native alone or in combination populations living on reservations show a statistically significant undercount rate of 5.64%. This was not statistically different from a 4.88% undercount in 2010. The American Indian or Alaska Native population alone or in combination living in American Indian areas, but not living on reservations, was not statistically different from zero in 2020 or 2010.
• The non-Hispanic White alone population had a statistically significant overcount rate of 1.64%. This is statistically different from an overcount of 0.83% in 2010.
• The Asian alone or in combination population had an overcount rate of 2.62%. This is statistically different from 0.00% in 2010.
• The Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander alone or in combination population had an estimated overcount rate of 1.28%. This rate is not different from an estimated 1.02% overcount rate in 2010. Both are not statistically different from zero.

 

 

[bolverk 29,683]

Crap, making the quote box wouldn't allow me to add more text below it, so I'll continue here:

The more detailed data analysis (DA) isn't yet available for race/ethnicity, but it can speak to age groups and the total. It's important to also note that the 323 million figure only applies to those living in Housing Units and not people who live in Group Quarters (dorms, prisons, nursing homes, etc.) which is another ~7 million or so.

Quote

 

The Census Bureau estimates that among the 323.2 million people who were living in housing units on April 1, 2020: 

• 94.4% were counted correctly.  
• 2.2% were counted erroneously (1.6% were duplicates and 0.6% were erroneous for other reasons).
• 2.8% provided only a census count and had their demographic characteristics imputed, or statistically inserted.
• 0.6% needed more extensive imputation after all census follow-up efforts were attempted. 

In the PES, the Census Bureau estimated 18.8 million omissions in the population. Omissions are people who were not correctly counted in the census. Some of these people were missed by the census. However, omissions may have been accounted for in the census counts as whole-person imputations.

 

Imputations are basically them adding people in when they think someone is living somewhere but weren't actually counted.

Basically, the analysis is over yet and they're not releasing more detailed official data until later. It is a little concerning though that the survey results were so off, especially among Latinos.

[elfenix 34,266]

Quote

making the quote box wouldn't allow me to add more text below it

press enter two times, assuming you're on a computer.  first enter will do a carriage return in the quote box, the second will take the cursor out of the quote box and get rid of that carriage return. 

usually works.  should be able to use bbcode directly but invision board thinks this is better.

[Ag with kids 581]

From the NYT:

Quote

Correction: 

March 10, 2022

An earlier version of this article misstated the 2020 census errors reported by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau announced that nearly 19 million residents were miscounted in some way; the population was not undercounted by 19 million. The error was repeated in a headline and news alert. 

 

[bolverk 29,683]

1 minute ago, elfenix said:

press enter two times, assuming you're on a computer.  first enter will do a carriage return in the quote box, the second will take the cursor out of the quote box and get rid of that carriage return. 

usually works.  should be able to use bbcode directly but invision board thinks this is better.

Yeah, I remembered to hit enter twice on the second post.

[DaysOff 7,951]

Still don't understand why this task isn't outsourced to Google.

[Ag with kids 581]

39 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Still don't understand why this task isn't outsourced to Google Elon Musk.

FIFY