The end of the current form of colleg football

[2300 Nueces 163]

The question is not whether we will have a 2020 season but which programs will survive in general.  Many programs will be gone after 2020.  Disney is in trouble so the SEC contract is probably in question.  Not sure about FOX but most of the B1G is dead football anyway.

 

Which programs shutter?

 

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/08/college-football-future-2020-ncaa-coronavirus

[Hate 20103]

The SEC may not have anyone left to schedule out of conference. 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

I highly doubt you'll see many of the Power Five shutter because of this.   Football and men's basketball is like a marketing expense at the end of the day, and a cheap one at that for billion dollar institutions.  It may change some things, but the US quickly forgets and goes back to normal once the situation is over.

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

I'm just glad it won't affect college football

Edited April 13, 2020 by NeverMarryAStripper

[2300 Nueces 163]

13 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I highly doubt you'll see many of the Power Five shutter because of this.   Football and men's basketball is like a marketing expense at the end of the day, and a cheap one at that for billion dollar institutions.  It may change some things, but the US quickly forgets and goes back to normal once the situation is over.

 

If there is any deviation from revenue projections, there will be serious problems in college football.  I would think that the NFL would be feeling some serious pain as well.  I would love to see the current cancellations of season ticket packages.   I think you are being too optimistic.  This will trim the number of teams as well as put many teams that were sufficient into the red.

[CooterBrown 17907]

The top 40 programs should use this opportunity to form their own league outside of the NCAA.  There's probably 20 programs that don't really want to fund money loser expensive football programs so they'll bail first. 

 

[mdmost 42865]

Is this the new realignment thread?

[Bigbend1812 12887]

Fuck China and OU.

[SimonBolivar 10928]

14 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

The top 40 programs should use this opportunity to form their own league outside of the NCAA.  There's probably 20 programs that don't really want to fund money loser expensive football programs so they'll bail first. 

 

I've been looking for a reason to stop wasting all those Saturdays in the fall like I have for the last 30 years. If I can't watch Air Force play Michigan State at 11AM on a random Saturday in early October because they wanted to create a AAA for the NFL then I'll finally be able to stop pretending like it already isn't a AAA for the NFL.

[2300 Nueces 163]

6 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I've been looking for a reason to stop wasting all those Saturdays in the fall like I have for the last 30 years. If I can't watch Air Force play Michigan State at 11AM on a random Saturday in early October because they wanted to create a AAA for the NFL then I'll finally be able to stop pretending like it already isn't a AAA for the NFL.

The student athlete "model" was gone awhile ago.  We are going to see some interesting developments moving forward.  Some good and some sad.  I say sad because some things are familiar and I like them but not needed and are outdated.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

58 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

If there is any deviation from revenue projections, there will be serious problems in college football.  I would think that the NFL would be feeling some serious pain as well.  I would love to see the current cancellations of season ticket packages.   I think you are being too optimistic.  This will trim the number of teams as well as put many teams that were sufficient into the red.

I don't disagree with that.   Just that the revenue sports are worth more than just the money they make, they are basically brand building for the universities.  And as long as people want to watch it, and will pay to, they'll have it.   

While things may get rough with the "haves" the "have nots" will truly struggle.    The media revenues will bounce back way faster than attendance, as teams can play in empty stadium, but if you're under the P5 you don't really have media revenues of note.   That's why they spend so much to play.   

This isn't an interest issue, its a distance issue.   Sports have been the new opiate for the masses for a long time now, and I cannot imagine that people aren't going to want to watch them again the moment they figure out how to let players hit each other again.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Hurtlocker

[Moby Ric 2058]

1 hour ago, Bigbend1812 said:

Fuck China and OU. And Baylor too

fify

[SubliminalHorn 6674]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

Is this the new realignment thread?

Not even a pandemic can make alignment talk go away 

[Bartles 769]

Couple comments in the article about football travel made me wonder, can schools use force majeure clauses to get out of all those future non-league games if they want? Not that it would be a big issue, but if a new AD decides he'd rather not make a long trip five years from now, maybe he could blame the virus and back out?

[Wanker Bob 379]

What's the likelihood no major sports as we know them until late 2021 or 2022? 

[SHOOTER12 8789]

1 hour ago, Wanker Bob said:

What's the likelihood no major sports as we know them until late 2021 or 2022? 

Shut your filthy whore mouth.

[Bevo 13527]

Men's baseball, swimming and track and field are fucked.

[mulletpelini 5209]

Hey if they're not gonna play then EA should be given an exemption to put out a college football game.  No play no pay

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

...and the world will crack in to 3 pieces...... we're doooooooomed .........

[Longboard Horn 40142]

3 hours ago, mulletpelini said:

Hey if they're not gonna play then EA should be given an exemption to put out a college football game.  No play no pay

Exactly. The old game is fun and there’s a company that makes the updated rosters every season that you can download through roster share, but I wanna see one with the CFP instead of BCS.

[Armybrat 40739]

17 hours ago, Hate said:

The SEC may not have any FCS teams left to schedule out of conference. 

Fify

[Armybrat 40739]

17 hours ago, Bigbend1812 said:

Fuck China, the NCAA and OU.

Fify, and not necessarily in that order.

[Armybrat 40739]

15 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

What's the likelihood no major sports as we know them until late 2021 or 2022? 

Username appropriate.

[irishtexan 11445]

16 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

What's the likelihood no major sports as we know them until late 2021 or 2022? 

Possible to likely without a vaccine

https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/

Live Concerts Won’t Return Until “Fall 2021 at the Earliest,” Health Expert Warns

"You can’t just flip a switch and open the whole of society up... The virus will definitely flare back to the worst levels."

BY WREN GRAVES

ON APRIL 13, 2020, 10:15AM

 

Large-scale gatherings such as conferences, sport events, and live concerts won’t be safe to attend until “fall 2021 at the earliest,” according to Zeke Emanuel, director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania.

Emanuel was part of an expert panel assembled by the New York Times on life after the COVID-19 pandemic. The problem, according to Emanuel, is “You can’t just flip a switch and open the whole of society up. It’s just not going to work. It’s too much. The virus will definitely flare back to the worst levels.

As he sees it, “restarting the economy has to be done in stages,” and crowded events will be the last part of our old lives to return. He said,

“It does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back. Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

So why do we have to wait until the second half of 2021? That has to do with the development timeline of the coronavirus vaccine. And Emanuel isn’t alone in thinking a vaccine will take 12-18 months — in fact, that seems to be the expert consensus.

 

Larry Brilliant, the epidemiologist who led the effort to eradicate smallpox, told The Economist, “I think we will have a vaccine that works in less than a couple of months.” Unfortunately, that’s the easy part. “Then it will be the arduous process of making sure that it is effective enough and that it is not harmful. And then we have to produce it. [America’s Director National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] Tony Fauci’s estimate of 12 to 18 months before we have a vaccine, in sufficient quantities in place, is one that I agree with.”

But Brilliant, who also consulted on the 2011 Steven Soderbergh film Contagion, sounds even more pessimistic than Emanuel. He thinks the COVID-19 virus will still be a problem — at least for a while — after the development of a vaccine.

“I just want to mention, once we have that vaccine, and we’ve mass vaccinated as many people as we could, there will still be outbreaks. People are not adding on to the backend of that time period the fact that we will then be chasing outbreaks, ping-pong-ing back and forth between countries. We will need to have the equivalent of the polio-eradication program or the smallpox-eradication program, hopefully at the WHO. And that mop-up—I hate to use that word when we’re talking about human beings—but that follow-on effort will take an additional period of time before we are truly safe.”

In other words, the re-opening of society will be slower and more painful than some are anticipating.

For now musicians have adapted with quarantine videos and isolation livestreams, as when Willie Nelson announced a digital Farm Aid with Neil Young, Dave Matthews, and more over the weekend. For a full list of upcoming concerts and livestreams, click here. But that’s not going to replace the lost revenue stream for middle-class and rising artists. If you want to help musicians impacted by the novel coronavirus, or are yourself a musician looking for help, check out our pandemic resource guide.

[texifornia 56519]

6 hours ago, Bevo said:

Men's baseball, swimming and track and field are fucked.

...and soccer

 

[SquishMitten 10401]

6 hours ago, Bevo said:

Men's baseball, swimming and track and field are fucked.

You talking about those nationally? Or here? Pretty sure our baseball program turns a decent profit. Don't know a ton about track, but I can't imagine we'd give up the most dominant aquatics program in the world

[bluto 4891]

Seen a few sites showing baseball lost $100k net back in 2016 but made a million in 18 maybe

[Beau Vine 54001]

19 hours ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Which programs shutter?

I'll make that call -- absolutely zero of them.  

Mosts of the things that athletic department accounting calls "costs" aren't costs at all.  

[Beau Vine 54001]

37 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

You talking about those nationally? Or here? Pretty sure our baseball program turns a decent profit. Don't know a ton about track, but I can't imagine we'd give up the most dominant aquatics program in the world

The UT baseball program makes a ton of money for the university.  

[Bevo 13527]

37 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

You talking about those nationally? Or here? Pretty sure our baseball program turns a decent profit. Don't know a ton about track, but I can't imagine we'd give up the most dominant aquatics program in the world

Nationally. If finances and traveling are a problem, men's secondary sports will be cut before the money makers are cut.

[pacman 7329]

19 hours ago, 2300 Nueces said:

The question is not whether we will have a 2020 season but which programs will survive in general.  Many programs will be gone after 2020.  Disney is in trouble so the SEC contract is probably in question.  Not sure about FOX but most of the B1G is dead football anyway.

 

Which programs shutter?

 

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/08/college-football-future-2020-ncaa-coronavirus

not even close to as significant as football but cinci just dropped its mens college soccer program, a program that has existed since 1973

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29034684/cincinnati-drops-men-soccer-program-amid-widespread-uncertainty

[Randolph Duke 4034]

12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

The UT baseball program makes a ton of money for the university.  

How much is "a ton" of money, and where are you getting your info from? The numbers I have show UT baseball pretty much breaks even. Football and MBB make money.

The detailed numbers are contained in the NCAA Membership Financial Reporting System filing submitted on or about January 2020. If anyone wants to file an Open Records Act request with the university asking for a copy of that report, and all similar reports filed with the NCAA over the past 10 years, those reports would have a lot of information on the subject.

College sports, especially football, was ripe for radical restructuring before the viral pandemic. I think the financial strains placed on college athletics in general assures that we will see a radical new structure for all of college athletics sooner, as opposed to eventually.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Randolph Duke

[Beau Vine 54001]

35 minutes ago, Randolph Duke said:

How much is "a ton" of money, and where are you getting your info from? The numbers I have show UT baseball pretty much breaks even. Football and MBB make money.

The detailed numbers are contained in the NCAA Membership Financial Reporting System filing submitted on or about January 2020. If anyone wants to file an Open Records Act request with the university asking for a copy of that report, and all similar reports filed with the NCAA over the past 10 years, those reports would have a lot of information on the subject.

College sports, especially football, was ripe for radical restructuring before the viral pandemic. I think the financial strains placed on college athletics in general assures that we will see a radical new structure for all of college athletics sooner, as opposed to eventually.

The numbers that you have are utter crap.  Baseball has 27 players.  They get 10.7 scholarships.  Those scholarships are counted as a cost, even though it's literally money going from one university pocket to the other.  And at UT, the athletic department counts every athletic scholarship at out-of-state tuition rates regardless of where the athlete is from.

Meanwhile, that is 16.3 baseball players who are paying their own way.  Please show me in your numbers where that is counted as revenue attributed to the baseball program.  

The financial strains placed on college athletics are about 99% due to coaches salaries and bloated administration.  

Edited April 14, 2020 by Beau Vine

[irishtexan 11445]

52 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

The numbers that you have are utter crap.  Baseball has 27 players.  They get 10.7 scholarships.  Those scholarships are counted as a cost, even though it's literally money going from one university pocket to the other.  And at UT, the athletic department counts every athletic scholarship at out-of-state tuition rates regardless of where the athlete is from.

Meanwhile, that is 16.3 baseball players who are paying their own way.  Please show me in your numbers where that is counted as revenue attributed to the baseball program.  

The financial strains placed on college athletics are about 99% due to coaches salaries and bloated administration.  

You do realize there are more costs than just the scholarships for the players, coaches salaries, and "bloated administration" right? They have to pay the the trainers, doctors, people that maintain the stadium, travel costs to play the games, lodging for the team, for uniforms, and for tons of other shit. And where does revenue come from for college baseball? I'm not as familiar with baseball as football, but I don't believe there are lucrative deals, so it's basically ticket sales. And we only get that on the home games, of which I'd guess that about 40% of total games are home games when you count all the tournaments and post-season games. So you're really only making money on 40% of the games played. The other 60% do not result in revenues and instead incur substantial costs associated with travel for 27 players, coaches, trainers, etc. So I'd find it hard to believe that baseball generates "a ton" of money for the athletic department. It's all football, really. 

[Beau Vine 54001]

6 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

You do realize there are more costs than just the scholarships for the players, coaches salaries, and "bloated administration" right? They have to pay the the trainers, doctors, people that maintain the stadium, travel costs to play the games, lodging for the team, for uniforms, and for tons of other shit. And where does revenue come from for college baseball? I'm not as familiar with baseball as football, but I don't believe there are lucrative deals, so it's basically ticket sales. And we only get that on the home games, of which I'd guess that about 40% of total games are home games when you count all the tournaments and post-season games. So you're really only making money on 40% of the games played. The other 60% do not result in revenues and instead incur substantial costs associated with travel for 27 players, coaches, trainers, etc. So I'd find it hard to believe that baseball generates "a ton" of money for the athletic department. It's all football, really. 

lol. you definitely don't pay attention to baseball if you think only 40% of UT baseball's games are home games.  And expenses for post-season games get reimbursed by the NCAA anyways.

[Armybrat 40739]

2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

You talking about those nationally? Or here? Pretty sure our baseball program turns a decent profit. Don't know a ton about track, but I can't imagine we'd give up the most dominant aquatics program in the world

When Plonsky’s contract is not renewed this summer the department could use the savings to take up the slack.

[irishtexan 11445]

19 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

lol. you definitely don't pay attention to baseball if you think only 40% of UT baseball's games are home games.  And expenses for post-season games get reimbursed by the NCAA anyways.

OK fine. So we get more home games and we get reimbursed for post-season. You still didn't address any of the rest of my post. Where does the revenue come from? Do you think that the revenue from ticket sales, concessions, and merchandising covers all other costs for the baseball program, and then "makes a ton of money"? I can't imagine the basic economics haven't changed much, but in 2015-2016 the program lost nearly $100k.

https://college-sports.texastribune.org/colleges/university-of-texas-at-austin/

[Tex Long 4348]

A "ton of money" ranges from $1,000,000 to $100,000,000 in value.

Assuming U.S. Fed Notes only - no coins no Euros, Rubles or others.

[SquishMitten 10401]

Fiscal 2019 profit reports:

Football - $113,922,363

Basketball - $5,258,110

Baseball - $1,652,359

https://www.expressnews.com/sports/college_sports/longhorns/article/Texas-Revenue-3-20-15144130.php

[VirginiaLonghorn 4750]

If football is cancelled, having a Mensa coach positions us well for championships in virtual mahjong and Chinese checkers.

[Beau Vine 54001]

9 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

OK fine. So we get more home games and we get reimbursed for post-season. You still didn't address any of the rest of my post. Where does the revenue come from? Do you think that the revenue from ticket sales, concessions, and merchandising covers all other costs for the baseball program, and then "makes a ton of money"? I can't imagine the basic economics haven't changed much, but in 2015-2016 the program lost nearly $100k.

https://college-sports.texastribune.org/colleges/university-of-texas-at-austin/

"nearly $100K" is the equivalent of what they charge for two scholarships.

Look, you have fucking single-A minor league teams in Montana that make money while playing a similar number of games, but you think the University of Texas baseball program doesn't make money?

[irishtexan 11445]

48 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Fiscal 2019 profit reports:

Football - $113,922,363

Basketball - $5,258,110

Baseball - $1,652,359

https://www.expressnews.com/sports/college_sports/longhorns/article/Texas-Revenue-3-20-15144130.php

That's revenue. Not profit. 

 

[PantsTent 2002]

4 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

That's revenue. Not profit. 

 

Nope... 

Football

Operating expenses: $43,039,170

Operating revenue: $156,961,533

Profit: $113,922,363

Men’s basketball

Operating expenses: $11,449,423

Operating revenue: $16,707,533

Profit: $5,258,110

Baseball

Operating expenses: $4,449,465

Operating revenue: $6,101,824

Profit: $1,652,359

[gmr548 16512]

On 4/13/2020 at 5:33 PM, Wanker Bob said:

What's the likelihood no major sports as we know them until late 2021 or 2022? 

Way more likely than anything this year.

[Blotto 23434]

8 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

The financial strains placed on college athletics are about 99% due to coaches salaries and bloated administration.  

I think you can also add massive long term debt obligations caused by the facilities arms race to that list. And you know the financial engineering necessary to justify those expenditures was based on the revenue gravy train continuing to expand at "best case" scenarios.

Cal's athletic dept was running a huge deficit (20 mil a year) until the University stepped in and absorbed over half of the debt obligations held by the AD and their recent $450+ million retrofit of Memeorial stadium and  new training center. That was when times were good. In return, athletics was supposed to balance the budget by 2020....good luck with that now.

Football ticket revenue for Texas football was approx $40 million last year, and if that income gets nuked next year, we run in the red. Think about the numbers of schools that don't have the cushion that Belmont has. But unlike the situation in Berkeley, not many universities are going to be in the position of pulling out their checkbooks next year as they will have plenty of financial nightmares to sort through with falling enrollment and most state budgets getting blown up. If football is canceled or played in front of empty stands next season, I fully expect some athletic departments to melt down. Athletic departments that previously relied on the mothership to cover the shortfall in the past may be in for a surprise, as the money simply wont be there. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Blotto

[ButtFumble 5158]

this graph here should shut up anyone that wants to ditch members of the Big 12 to go all in with the PAC 12 instead of trying to take the top of the PAC 12 (and I am not saying that is possible or will be easy, but it is a much more sane idea vs joining all in with all 12 members)

note that INCLUDES student fees and that is an average

so you are looking at a 12 team conference that averages a subsidy from student fees and the academic side of over $8 million

it should also be noted that several PAC 12 programs ran a deficit (or deficits) in recent years AFTER including those student fees and academic subsidies.....so you are looking at a conference with very large academic side subsidies and some of them that still have annual deficits even with those large subsidies

then there is the large debt loads that many of their programs have.....some of the highest in the P5 like Cal (mentioned above) and I am not sure Cal has fully squared that away I think they have kicked a large part of it down the road

several other PAC 12 programs have large debt loads besides Cal

the PAC 12 is easily the most financially strapped conference there is and it is even worse when compared to the Big 12 where only Texas, OU and Texas Tech have large amounts of debt, where no program runs an annual deficit, where debt loads are very low, and where academic side and student subsidies are low and have been getting lower year after year for several years

[Spankytoes 1736]

9 hours ago, pacman said:

not even close to as significant as football but cinci just dropped its mens college soccer program, a program that has existed since 1973

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29034684/cincinnati-drops-men-soccer-program-amid-widespread-uncertainty

But we’re talking about actual sports here

[mulletpelini 5209]

 

8 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

lol. you definitely don't pay attention to baseball if you think only 40% of UT baseball's games are home games.  And expenses for post-season games get reimbursed by the NCAA anyways.

 

7 hours ago, irishtexan said:

OK fine.

 

6 hours ago, irishtexan said:

That's revenue. Not profit. 

 

 

6 hours ago, PantsTent said:

Nope... 

 

[Beau Vine 54001]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I think you can also add massive long term debt obligations caused by the facilities arms race to that list. And you know the financial engineering necessary to justify those expenditures was based on the revenue gravy train continuing to expand at "best case" scenarios.

Cal's athletic dept was running a huge deficit (20 mil a year) until the University stepped in and absorbed over half of the debt obligations held by the AD and their recent $450+ million retrofit of Memeorial stadium and  new training center. That was when times were good. In return, athletics was supposed to balance the budget by 2020....good luck with that now.

Football ticket revenue for Texas football was approx $40 million last year, and if that income gets nuked next year, we run in the red. Think about the numbers of schools that don't have the cushion that Belmont has. But unlike the situation in Berkeley, not many universities are going to be in the position of pulling out their checkbooks next year as they will have plenty of financial nightmares to sort through with falling enrollment and most state budgets getting blown up. If football is canceled or played in front of empty stands next season, I fully expect some athletic departments to melt down. Athletic departments that previously relied on the mothership to cover the shortfall in the past may be in for a surprise, as the money simply wont be there. 

Cal is on a whole different level of fucked by debt than any other AD in the country.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Holy Hyperbole Batman 

Things will go back to normal. Everything is not fucked man. You’re being very undude