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Time to Oust Cornyn


pyrohornIII

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I almost despise Cornyn more than Cruz.  Cruz is not a complete idiot - he's profoundly foolish and has no ability to understand human beings in any capacity, which is a bad combination with antipathy and intelligence.  And I am surprised at how much of a coward he has become. But every now and then he kinda gets it a little bit, and at least he is something even if it is craven and evil.

John Cornyn is a smug empty suit that has been filled with shit.  He may be kinda the opposite of Cruz.  Cruz has terrible instincts but good timing - he would have been a hateful angry fringe guy but people wanted to put that guy in power.  Cornyn has good instincts (for gaining/retaining power) and probably would have worked his way towards being a powerful toady to whoever is in control of the party that is in control of the state he's in.  And so he is a smug instrument of evil.  Fuck that guy.

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1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

I almost despise Cornyn more than Cruz.  Cruz is not a complete idiot - he's profoundly foolish and has no ability to understand human beings in any capacity, which is a bad combination with antipathy and intelligence.  And I am surprised at how much of a coward he has become. But every now and then he kinda gets it a little bit, and at least he is something even if it is craven and evil.

John Cornyn is a smug empty suit that has been filled with shit.  He may be kinda the opposite of Cruz.  Cruz has terrible instincts but good timing - he would have been a hateful angry fringe guy but people wanted to put that guy in power.  Cornyn has good instincts (for gaining/retaining power) and probably would have worked his way towards being a powerful toady to whoever is in control of the party that is in control of the state he's in.  And so he is a smug instrument of evil.  Fuck that guy.

You make a strong argument for both of them being completely worthless and not worthy of any amount of praise or standing in decent society.

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Cornyn is a member of the Church of Christ, which is the church I grew up in a small town near Tyler, population 3000. He and I are the same age and many many of these church members are perfect for today's Republican party. They are anti-higher education. I remember the older members of my church say don't send your children to college because they will lose the faith.

I agree that Cornyn is safe for this election. It is Texas and while his opponent has yet to be chosen, it will probably be Hegar and just being a woman will cost her critical voting percentages. People complain all day long about their Congressman but then vote for the incumbent. Rural Texas hates "libtards" and will vote for anyone with an R in front of their name.

I don't think Cornyn will run again since he would be 74 at the time of his re-election in 2026 and enough of my generation, the baby boomers, will have passed that Texas should be competitive then.

If Hispanics and millennials would vote Texas could go blue this year but I'm not counting on it.

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3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Cornyn is a member of the Church of Christ, which is the church I grew up in a small town near Tyler, population 3000. He and I are the same age and many many of these church members are perfect for today's Republican party. They are anti-higher education. I remember the older members of my church say don't send your children to college because they will lose the faith.

I agree that Cornyn is safe for this election. It is Texas and while his opponent has yet to be chosen, it will probably be Hegar and just being a woman will cost her critical voting percentages. People complain all day long about their Congressman but then vote for the incumbent. Rural Texas hates "libtards" and will vote for anyone with an R in front of their name.

I don't think Cornyn will run again since he would be 74 at the time of his re-election in 2026 and enough of my generation, the baby boomers, will have passed that Texas should be competitive then.

If Hispanics and millennials would vote Texas could go blue this year but I'm not counting on it.

I think this is correct.  Bottom line is the olds need to die off in Texas.

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10 hours ago, tantric superman said:

I agree with all of this.  But Cornyn is as much of a lock as Abbott.

Much like we used Cruz in 2018, we need to let Cornyn piss us off, but we need to use that energy to make sure downballot folks don't get pushed out by brain dead Abbottistas and Trumpistas. 

 

The republicans have completely lost the white woman suburban vote. Unless you are running in a rural country only in Texas, there are no Republican locks in this state anymore.

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8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

You make a strong argument for both of them being completely worthless and not worthy of any amount of praise or standing in decent society.

a strong argument can be made for that being true of every Republican officeholder in this country.  and everyone who votes for and supports them.

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So, FWIW, I was a bystander on a call today that recognized MJ Hager has a shot, but she’s gonna have to do it on her own.  National just isn’t going to put money into this race right now. 

What the fuck is national putting money into?  Invisibility cloaks?  I don’t visibly see any dem money anywhere.  Where is it, seriously?

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10 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Every goddamned Republican or Republican-sympathetic individual in America at this point is a perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Every single one. There isn't one goddamned person considering voting Republican who has even the minimal amount of humility required to think "hey maybe there's something here I don't understand as well as the subject matter experts."  It's fucking incredible.

But the subject matter experts are all libs! Climate scientists lie about climate change to get grants!!1

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8 hours ago, Texas73 said:

Cornyn is a member of the Church of Christ, which is the church I grew up in a small town near Tyler, population 3000. He and I are the same age and many many of these church members are perfect for today's Republican party. They are anti-higher education. I remember the older members of my church say don't send your children to college because they will lose the faith.

 

When was the last time you went? That ain't true anymore.

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2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

The republicans have completely lost the white woman suburban vote.

This is not true in my experience. I counted a few streets in my hood when Beto seemed to making some steam and it was something like 26 Cruz signs to 3.  The one on our street became the talk for a little bit.  Obviously anecdotal. Also heavy O&G and aggy presence here. 

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3 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

When was the last time you went? That ain't true anymore.

You speak for the body of the Church of Christ? The ones that I know who are members now are full blown Trumpsters and they are even more anti-higher education and anti-science than they were in the 50's and 60's when I was attending. Oh, they are okay with you going to Abilene Christian.

On a side note, Churches of Christ are closing and losing membership in record numbers as the older folks pass and younger generations reject their messages.

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my sister-in-law is Church of Christ. And also a UT Law grad (as I am, for full disclosure purposes) and she is entirely anti-intellectual. I don't think it's purposeful for her...she doesn't actively seek out political positions or engage in any of that..but she's the most bubble-wrapped ACU family type person I've known. It blows my mind because I feel like UT law does teach critical thinking/questioning but you either embrace that or you keep on with your bubble life after leaving your education behind. 

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3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

You speak for the body of the Church of Christ? The ones that I know who are members now are full blown Trumpsters and they are even more anti-higher education and anti-science than they were in the 50's and 60's when I was attending. Oh, they are okay with you going to Abilene Christian.

On a side note, Churches of Christ are closing and losing membership in record numbers as the older folks pass and younger generations reject their messages.

No, but neither are you, and the few that you know.

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1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

What the fuck is national putting money into?  Invisibility cloaks?  I don’t visibly see any dem money anywhere.  Where is it, seriously?

Arizona, Maine, and Colorado are shaping up to be fantastic Dem Senate targets.

 

montana is a good shot too.

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17 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The thing that bugs me is that we have indications of how reasonable the CV19 models are for a given set of inputs.  I honestly think the fact that a good percentage of the US actually took social distancing guidelines to heart, and thus we "flattened the curve" to some degree, leads to some people thinking the models were garbage.  Well, no, not necessarily.  If I try to predict what happens if nobody changes their behavior and we toddle along, business as usual, but then we DO take at least some action, then of course that worst-case scenario is going to be off.  That doesn't mean the model was bad.  It means we didn't model the "right" thing.  (I say this fully understanding the fact that scientists also tried to model X% of social distancing, etc., but those less hysterical results never got the traction with the public that the worst-case models predicted.)

Many in this country would get into a car accident while wearing a seat belt, and then use the fact that they were uninjured as proof that we don't need to wear seat belts.

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I want to see one, ONE fucking thing John Cornyn has done that can match this. I want a Senator with balls.

Quote

As a young girl, MJ’s dreams of becoming a military pilot were dismissed with claims that “the front is no place for a woman.” Unwilling to back down, MJ became a commissioned officer in the Air Force after graduating from the University of Texas. She was selected for a highly competitive spot in the pilot training program, where she graduated at the top of her class. MJ went on to serve three tours in Afghanistan as a combat search and rescue and medevac pilot.

During a rescue mission in Afghanistan, MJ’s helicopter was destroyed by the Taliban, and she was injured by enemy gunfire. MJ received the Purple Heart for her injuries, and she is one of only a few women to be awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor for her actions saving the lives of her crew and patients.

t_YFDPwtkmdV8GJaJJ6IjyowVXCqhIlu_y55cJiW

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9 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

What the fuck is national putting money into?  Invisibility cloaks?  I don’t visibly see any dem money anywhere.  Where is it, seriously?

AZ, ME, NC, CO for senate.  And lots of excitement about MT as well.

Edited by Bateshorn
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51 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Thanks.  I would not have found that out otherwise, which is sorta confounding.  A lot of people are just shaking their heads wondering where the messaging is.  

I totally get it.  It sounds like the DNC and the DSCC have decided that Texas isn’t quite there yet and are mostly hoping Heger forces Cronyn to spend money and removes him as a fundraising tool.  Kinda like Beto did to Cruz.  Which makes strategic sense, but if I was looking towards a future blue Texas it’s gotta be frustrating as hell.  

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32 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I totally get it.  It sounds like the DNC and the DSCC have decided that Texas isn’t quite there yet and are mostly hoping Heger forces Cronyn to spend money and removes him as a fundraising tool.  Kinda like Beto did to Cruz.  Which makes strategic sense, but if I was looking towards a future blue Texas it’s gotta be frustrating as hell.  

I'll be throwing Hegar some cash, maybe once a month, but I don't expect anything from it.

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On 4/16/2020 at 9:08 AM, bernorange said:

Cornyn is a tool, but what he said isn't wrong.  Modeling is just masturbating on statistics.  The kind after damn lies.  Most people have heard and understand the phrase "garbage in, garbage out".  You can imagine a black box where data goes in one end and other data comes out the opposite side.  People focus a lot on the quality of the data going in, but the inner workings of the black box can also be similarly flawed.  Before folks get offended, understand that I'm not suggesting model makers are malicious actors.  Imperfect understanding of complex systems means important variables and interactions can be missed.

~~~

"Al Qaeda"

Yeah, uh, no. You are correct in that models are only as predictive as the assumptions turn out to be correct, but data modeling in this or any real life context is the opposite of a black box. A basic part of modeling is including and publishing the assumptions that are built into the model.

For a portion of my career I was responsible for strategic planning in a $10B+ global business inside of a $100B+ enterprise. We would make forecasts that justified the employment of literally tens of thousands of people around the world. So when we woudl make a projection, we would include all the assumptions we made and they would be endlessly scrutinized by everyone across all the vertical functions. That made our process and our models better, and as more data comes in more adjustments are made and models get better over time. When you accurately predict an 11 digit revenue number from three years out within $50M, you've got a good model and the way you got there was, in point of fact, the scientific method. 

So Cornyn is VERY, VERY wrong, and what he said is a basic demonstration of a guy who has spent his entire life doing politics and clearly has no idea how grownups plan and take action in complex situations. 

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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I apologize for using careless language in my earlier post.  I should have said "playing with" instead of "masturbating on".  Not sure why I opted for the more colorful rhetoric there.  I don't want to derail this "Cornyn is a tool" thread with the "is modeling science?" discussion that Cornyn was advocating, but since I got so many direct comments, I do feel that a response is merited.

Meteorologists use models to predict paths for hurricanes.  Every season we see maps with 6-8 different projections from different models for a given storm system.  Different models process the same data differently (playing with statistics/data input).

The OMB prepares budget projections all the time.  They publish a long list of assumptions that were used in their models to derive their projections.  Politicians by and large ignore that stuff if the projections are useful for justifying their pet policy position.  This is what I was alluding to with "the kind after damn lies".

I appreciate all the appeals to authority, but as someone that has also built mathematical models (computer programming, yo!) for several decades, I understand their limitations and how the human factor can influence their design and/or (use of) output.

I did not flesh out my thoughts in my earlier post, so sorry for the thread derail.

Edited by bernorange
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11 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

my sister-in-law is Church of Christ. And also a UT Law grad (as I am, for full disclosure purposes) and she is entirely anti-intellectual. I don't think it's purposeful for her...she doesn't actively seek out political positions or engage in any of that..but she's the most bubble-wrapped ACU family type person I've known. It blows my mind because I feel like UT law does teach critical thinking/questioning but you either embrace that or you keep on with your bubble life after leaving your education behind. 

Well, UT Law is so generally and reliably liberal that it's easy enough to just reject that while you are in school and retreat into ignorance afterward.

I would hope that people learned critical thinking prior to UT Law.  Because part of legal education is assimilating facts and making them fit your conclusion.  That can be a not-so-good thing.

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1 hour ago, bernorange said:

I apologize for using careless language in my earlier post.  I should have said "playing with" instead of "masturbating on".  Not sure why I opted for the more colorful rhetoric there.  I don't want to derail this "Cornyn is a tool" thread with the "is modeling science?" discussion that Cornyn was advocating, but since I got so many direct comments, I do feel that a response is merited.

Meteorologists use models to predict paths for hurricanes.  Every season we see maps with 6-8 different projections from different models for a given storm system.  Different models process the same data differently (playing with statistics/data input).

The OMB prepares budget projections all the time.  They publish a long list of assumptions that were used in their models to derive their projections.  Politicians by and large ignore that stuff if the projections are useful for justifying their pet policy position.  This is what I was alluding to with "the kind after damn lies".

I appreciate all the appeals to authority, but as someone that has also built mathematical models (computer programming, yo!) for several decades, I understand their limitations and how the human factor can influence their design and/or (use of) output.

I did not flesh out my thoughts in my earlier post, so sorry for the thread derail.

people can make models that are completely worthless.  I can model a financial projection for this website that makes its market value a trillion dollars.  and it has no more value than the paper it is printed on.  no one is disputing that. 

but to say they are just "playing with" or "masturbating on" statistics is simply wrong and cornyn's message is dangerously stupid.  it fails to understand how they influence and exist in our every day lives.  a software programmer should know better.

i wonder if the curiosity rover team would agree with your assessment in evaluating their global reference atmospheric model which is a foundational software integration for navigating, flying, and landing on mars.  i guess spacex probably would not given that they now use it for all of their launch software packages.  you think at&t and netflix are handling their load balancing right now without significant modeling on the front end?  you know i could do this for months with example after example. 

cornyn is a fucking dipshit.  always has been, always will be.  of course, he won't ever get voted out of his senate seat by the state of texas.  and i am not surprised he would say something so utterly idiotic.  i am surprised you would agree with him.

Edited by sidis
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@sidis - your examples of well constructed models are fine, but they aren't the subject of the discussion.  They aren't being used to justify political goals.  They aren't within the scope of the quote that I was responding to.

Cornyn was raising a point about the use of models to achieve political ends.  He talked about public health, economic and climate predictions.  

Public health models (covid19 models) are still evolving and we don't have good data.  There are numerous threads here where folks are discussing various models and their strengths and weaknesses.  I don't think they are mature enough to claim "science!" and shut down all discussion on their validity or the use of their predictions in justifying political policy.

Economic models?

Quote

...
This paper examines the record of accuracy of the receipt, outlay, and deficit estimates derived from administration and congressional macroeconomic forecasts to determine the historical reliability of each agency's estimates.  The results suggest that short-run forecasts (two to three years forward) of both CBO and OMB do not contain systematic bias.  Over longer periods, however, the forecasts deteriorate rapidly, particularly that of the budget deficit, as they reflect long-term goals for proposed economic policy rather than an actual forecast.
...

https://www.ntanet.org/NTJ/41/4/ntj-v41n04p483-501-accuracy-government-forecasts-budget.pdf

Climate predictions?  I get that the quote was pulled from an article trying to rally troops on the AGW issue, but as I mentioned earlier, even on less politically sensitive matters like hurricane forecasting, you can pick a model that gives the answer you want (or is useful for your political argument).

I've been plenty critical of "Al Qaeda" Cornyn for a long time.  Feels dirty having to argue a point he raised, but I think a lot of you peeps are jumping at the bit to criticize without really understanding what he was saying because you don't like him.  OU sucks.

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54 minutes ago, bernorange said:

@sidis - your examples of well constructed models are fine, but they aren't the subject of the discussion.  They aren't being used to justify political goals.  They aren't within the scope of the quote that I was responding to.

Cornyn was raising a point about the use of models to achieve political ends.  He talked about public health, economic and climate predictions.  

Public health models (covid19 models) are still evolving and we don't have good data.  There are numerous threads here where folks are discussing various models and their strengths and weaknesses.  I don't think they are mature enough to claim "science!" and shut down all discussion on their validity or the use of their predictions in justifying political policy.

Economic models?

https://www.ntanet.org/NTJ/41/4/ntj-v41n04p483-501-accuracy-government-forecasts-budget.pdf

Climate predictions?  I get that the quote was pulled from an article trying to rally troops on the AGW issue, but as I mentioned earlier, even on less politically sensitive matters like hurricane forecasting, you can pick a model that gives the answer you want (or is useful for your political argument).

I've been plenty critical of "Al Qaeda" Cornyn for a long time.  Feels dirty having to argue a point he raised, but I think a lot of you peeps are jumping at the bit to criticize without really understanding what he was saying because you don't like him.  OU sucks.

You know goddamned well that John fucking Cornyn isn't interest in a good faith intellectual discussion about the accuracy of various models of the coronavirus pandemic. He's interested in further delegitimizing experts in the minds of American voters. Now I know you're a fucking born contrarian and questioning experts is your favorite hobby, but you're smart enough to see the results of the GOP's efforts to deligitimize experts because they're happening right goddamn now and thousands of Americans are dying as a result. Cornyn isn't interested in improving modeling of epidemics, he's interested in further dumbing down America so his party can retain power and continue the most rampant campaign of corruption that we've ever experienced.

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1 hour ago, bernorange said:

@sidis - your examples of well constructed models are fine, but they aren't the subject of the discussion.  They aren't being used to justify political goals.

Cornyn was raising a point about the use of models to achieve political ends. 

Oh for fuck's sake.  The people building these models are trying to save lives, they aren't trying to achieve political goals.  As it turns out, at least a few people in Washington DC are interested in saving lives, too, just not Trump, Pence or any of his other bootlickers, including John Cornyn.

 

Quote

Public health models (covid19 models) are still evolving and we don't have good data.  There are numerous threads here where folks are discussing various models and their strengths and weaknesses.  I don't think they are mature enough to claim "science!" and shut down all discussion on their validity or the use of their predictions in justifying political policy.

They for damn sure are better than the alternative, some aspects of which include Big Brain Donald going with his "hunches" (that aren't consistent one day to the next).  Your characterization of life-saving efforts as "political policy" is vile and you should be ashamed of yourself.

It must be a fucking beating to wake up every day and think "how can I possibly deny almost all truth yet continue to appear concerned?".

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2 hours ago, bernorange said:

@sidis - your examples of well constructed models are fine, but they aren't the subject of the discussion.  They aren't being used to justify political goals.  They aren't within the scope of the quote that I was responding to.

Cornyn was raising a point about the use of models to achieve political ends.  He talked about public health, economic and climate predictions.  

Public health models (covid19 models) are still evolving and we don't have good data.  There are numerous threads here where folks are discussing various models and their strengths and weaknesses.  I don't think they are mature enough to claim "science!" and shut down all discussion on their validity or the use of their predictions in justifying political policy.

Economic models?

https://www.ntanet.org/NTJ/41/4/ntj-v41n04p483-501-accuracy-government-forecasts-budget.pdf

Climate predictions?  I get that the quote was pulled from an article trying to rally troops on the AGW issue, but as I mentioned earlier, even on less politically sensitive matters like hurricane forecasting, you can pick a model that gives the answer you want (or is useful for your political argument).

I've been plenty critical of "Al Qaeda" Cornyn for a long time.  Feels dirty having to argue a point he raised, but I think a lot of you peeps are jumping at the bit to criticize without really understanding what he was saying because you don't like him.  OU sucks.

so, when i read the above, what i read is "good models are good, i am only talking about bad models that i perceive to be politically motivated."  when the post you made said: 

Cornyn is a tool, but what he said isn't wrong.  Modeling is just masturbating on statistics.  The kind after damn lies.  Most people have heard and understand the phrase "garbage in, garbage out".  You can imagine a black box where data goes in one end and other data comes out the opposite side. 

Cornyn said "everything from public health, to economic, to climate change." 

I understand the value of picking the specific ones he picked to his political base, but he was very much attempting to undermine the process of evaluating things from a scientific process perspective in a more macro sense.  of course the models for covid-19 are constantly being adjusted, it is entirely new and there wasn't a foundation for any kind of assumptions.  now that we have started seeing enough data, they can be refined and we can continue to learn.  the alternative of just big bad john and you "wingin' it is not satisfactory to me."

but there is an insidious nature to what he is saying and it is fucking disgusting.  it preys on the irrational thought process of:

1) covid exists and it is spreading.  here are some preliminary virology models showing its transmission.

2) more data coming in from china, italy, etc... showing preliminary mortality rates...refine.

3) the transmission is exponential when it reaches community spread...refine.

4) we should mitigate the spread through distancing/shelter in place policies based on this modeling.

5) actions taken to socially distance.  (there are severe economic and psychological consequences to this but they are weighed relative to a virus showing the potential to eradicate 1-6% of the entire country's population).

6) it looks like the policies are kind of working.  fewer people are getting infected and dying relative to the most severe projections modeled BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION OF NO CHANGE IN POLICY.

7) because of distancing, the numbers are demonstrating better outcomes in the actual data relative to the but-for model predictions that, again, are predicated on not doing anything.

8) "see you idiots, we didn't need to do any of this."

one would like to believe that any adult human being could conceive of this irrationality of this.  unfortunately, it simply isn't true.  cornyn is advocating for the irrationality.  and you are trying to thread a needle to justify it because you think some people making climate models are politically motivated.

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1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Why is it the pattern that certain posters show up shitpost and spout of stupidity and then leave,  rinse, repeat?

bern has never been, and i doubt will ever be, a shitposter.  

that's what makes his attempt to take cornyn's culture war comments and fit them to his narrow purposes and jive with his libertarian bent on controversial topics like climate change so vexing.  rejecting cornyn's statement is not a wholesale acceptance of any model that's ever been built related to anything ever.  models are under constant revision (if they're worth a shit).  and people can utilize bullshit (or legit) models to advance a political goal.  there is no doubt about that.

but that's not what cornyn intended and that's not what came off in bern's original post in my opinion.  both were laced with culture war nonsense.  the type of "us against the eggheads" mentality that is so eagerly embraced by fucking mongoloids. 

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11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Bern’s a good dude. But he’s wrong about this. I do understand what Cornyn is saying, and Bern is projecting something far more benign, for reasons I can’t possibly fathom. 

I don't know, I tend to judge people on their words and deeds.  bern is revealing himself to be the piece of shit I always suspected he was.  

No free passes.  None.

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19 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Arizona, Maine, and Colorado are shaping up to be fantastic Dem Senate targets.

 

montana is a good shot too.

If Dems can’t beat Susie Collins in Maine, then pack it up and go to the house... and never come back.  That seat should be a lock.

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If Dems can’t beat Susie Collins in Maine, then pack it up and go to the house... and never come back.  That seat should be a lock.

Just gotta repeatedly throw that shitty kavanaugh confirmation vote in her face during the fall. 
 

that really pissed a lot of people off. Kavanaugh would probably vote to kill roe v wade some day if he had the chance. The Supreme Court should have no business doing so tho because the precedent has already been set.

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