2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Orale 1087]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

1) Cheering from afar as he goes after public unions. 

Just out of curiosity, do you feel this way about police and fire unions as well? Not that you wouldn't, but I've noticed a lot of anti-public union folks often carve out an exception for police/fire which I find maddening. I'm generally anti public unions as well but will admit inconsistency depending on the union. 

[Guest Lobo]

three glaring issues that are always conveniently swept under the rug by the Democrats with regard to Public Unions.  I ain't a Trumper and have been suspended for my comments against him from this site going on 5 times now. 

It's another binary bullshit argument that Democrats throw up, if you're against Public Unions---then you're against firefighters and teachers and county land surveyors.  And it's fucking bullshit.

A private labor union has to eventually be reasonable and compromise.  they squeeze the employer too hard, and they're out of a job.  So there's a mutual incentive for both sides to be pragmatic.  Public unions can just fuck with the taxpayers all they want and in the end, we have to cave because we can't not have schools or roads or firefighters.  

Right to work.  You go to the non-union route of an electrician or plumber or joint-fitter or truck driver.  It's your fish to fry.  If you live in a municipality (likely up north) where in order to fulfill your childhood dream of being a policeman or teacher, you have to belong to one of their two union choices, you have to fucking do it.  There's no parallel police force or school system you can join, the public mandates those jobs be hired by local government.  And that local government has given monopolistic powers to those public unions, so you're hamstrung either way.  Nevermind the bullshit political contributions made from union dues with a century of no oversight.  

Legislative Mandate.  A private union may not get what they want in a particular round of negotiations of bargaining agreements.  And that's just life.  Next time around, the employer/business may not get what they want.  And around and around we go, and in general-it's a century long balancing act that usually works most of the time.  A public union has not only that same negotiating leverage, but they can also fall back and just squeeze their comrades in arms at the legislative branch to just grant them what they want in the form of legislative mandates.  TRS does this shit all the time via the State House.  Private unions can sort of lobby and get the rare bill passed that protects an entire industry or profession, but public unions abuse this privilege every fucking session and I have to deal with it every fucking session.  

Now to be transparent, I am in general more opposed to unions than most people because a trucking union and their mafia associates once threatened to kidnap me to get to my father who was a higher up at a trucking company in the 80's/90's.  I didn't leave my house for a week because of these fucking all-stars.  I will grant that public unions are more transparent and mean well, but they have three serious cards in a tilted deck that I'll grant aren't available to private unions and thus are glaring reasons why public unions should be seriously curbed.  

[Jack Straw 2953]

5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Why not.  He has a 90% approval rating with the GOP. 

ahem.  that seems .... a bit low.

[thepop 4409]

 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Fuck me.  This is why I logged off 3 or 4 years ago and didn't log back on until the 'Rona made my time matter less. I set a clock on it and said back to work at 2:00 and now :43 minutes later I'm still fucking around on here. 
Have enjoyed the conversation and if anyone else has anything else I will probably touch base again with you at 9:00 or 10:00 when I'm having a beer after the kids and wife are down for the night.

I work for myself and I have to make my time bill out at $500 an hour (productive value), who the hell do I send this bill to, as I can't just charge it to the Anderson matter like the rest of you assholes in the legal community on here. 

Just put it on Mr. Underhill's tab. Tell'm I said it was ok.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Irwin F Fletcher

[Guest Lobo]

58 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

ahem.  that seems .... a bit low.

That poll does have one curious and glaring omission.  It fails to take into account how many Republicans you can no longer ask "Do you approve of the job President Trump is doing?" because they are no longer members of the party.  The GOP has also lost several million members during the last 3.5 years.  It doesn't amount to enough to remove Trump, but they do exist in much larger numbers.  You poll anyone who has belonged to the Republican Party at any time, at any level, in the last 10-20 years if they approve of Trump...his numbers fall closer to 75-80%.  Still very disturbing, but now the carte blanche acceptance he seems to have.  

[bad_teammate 13132]

3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

In all honesty, I was fairly apolitical before 2015 or so.  I grew up in a Conservative environment, surrounded by Conservative people.  I very much fell into the "both sides suck, so I'll just vote what I know" camp.  In 2016 I was disgusted by Trump, but still was pulling for someone like Kasich to somehow pull through.

See, this is why I ask for voting histories and think it would be useful to have that as a reference. If you were apolitical until the '16 election then you are not a never-Trump Republican.

I wouldn't put a guy who didn't deeply care about politics until 2016 up with people like Jennifer Rubin and Jonathan Chait and David Frum and guys who were online in 2003 arguing about the moral necessity of invading Iraq. Those are different people.

And Ghost drawing a parallel between them and African-Americans is absolutely wild.

[The Dog 43805]

58 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

The 2008 was close until September 15th of that year. 

And people forget about how inevitable Hillary was believed to be until Trump actually beat her. The pundits and press really underestimated how disliked she was. That and trash polling that oversampled Democrats and misrepresented her support throughout the election cycle. I hope they all learned their lessons and we have a better picture this year.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

Fresh new Fox News polls. Trump will be on the phone soon with his buddy Vladimir to get him out of this jam. 

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Bruh Man

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

2 hours ago, Orale said:

Just out of curiosity, do you feel this way about police and fire unions as well? Not that you wouldn't, but I've noticed a lot of anti-public union folks often carve out an exception for police/fire which I find maddening. I'm generally anti public unions as well but will admit inconsistency depending on the union. 

Totally feel that way about all public sector unions. The principle is the exact same with all of them- there should be no carve out bc there is nobody minding the store on the management side. I will say this- if you balance the books and find the pensions fully I don’t give a shit- but that doesn’t happen. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

three glaring issues that are always conveniently swept under the rug by the Democrats with regard to Public Unions.  I ain't a Trumper and have been suspended for my comments against him from this site going on 5 times now. 

It's another binary bullshit argument that Democrats throw up, if you're against Public Unions---then you're against firefighters and teachers and county land surveyors.  And it's fucking bullshit.

A private labor union has to eventually be reasonable and compromise.  they squeeze the employer too hard, and they're out of a job.  So there's a mutual incentive for both sides to be pragmatic.  Public unions can just fuck with the taxpayers all they want and in the end, we have to cave because we can't not have schools or roads or firefighters.  

Right to work.  You go to the non-union route of an electrician or plumber or joint-fitter or truck driver.  It's your fish to fry.  If you live in a municipality (likely up north) where in order to fulfill your childhood dream of being a policeman or teacher, you have to belong to one of their two union choices, you have to fucking do it.  There's no parallel police force or school system you can join, the public mandates those jobs be hired by local government.  And that local government has given monopolistic powers to those public unions, so you're hamstrung either way.  Nevermind the bullshit political contributions made from union dues with a century of no oversight.  

Legislative Mandate.  A private union may not get what they want in a particular round of negotiations of bargaining agreements.  And that's just life.  Next time around, the employer/business may not get what they want.  And around and around we go, and in general-it's a century long balancing act that usually works most of the time.  A public union has not only that same negotiating leverage, but they can also fall back and just squeeze their comrades in arms at the legislative branch to just grant them what they want in the form of legislative mandates.  TRS does this shit all the time via the State House.  Private unions can sort of lobby and get the rare bill passed that protects an entire industry or profession, but public unions abuse this privilege every fucking session and I have to deal with it every fucking session.  

Now to be transparent, I am in general more opposed to unions than most people because a trucking union and their mafia associates once threatened to kidnap me to get to my father who was a higher up at a trucking company in the 80's/90's.  I didn't leave my house for a week because of these fucking all-stars.  I will grant that public unions are more transparent and mean well, but they have three serious cards in a tilted deck that I'll grant aren't available to private unions and thus are glaring reasons why public unions should be seriously curbed.  

All of this. I wanted to keep my response really short to Bozo as I figured he'd know where I was coming from, but yeah, this is the fully fleshed out argument against public sector unions that I made in 2 sentences.  

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

That poll does have one curious and glaring omission.  It fails to take into account how many Republicans you can no longer ask "Do you approve of the job President Trump is doing?" because they are no longer members of the party.  The GOP has also lost several million members during the last 3.5 years.  It doesn't amount to enough to remove Trump, but they do exist in much larger numbers.  You poll anyone who has belonged to the Republican Party at any time, at any level, in the last 10-20 years if they approve of Trump...his numbers fall closer to 75-80%.  Still very disturbing, but now the carte blanche acceptance he seems to have.  

At least.  I was never a super reliable republican, especially at the presidential level, but state and city/county I voted more often than not for GOP and sat out other issues/positions on the ballot when I didn't like a candidate. But I'd have voted in the primary.  Now I don't show up as a GOP'er that dislikes Trump.  I know lots of others in the same boat.  80% seems low to me. 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

Live better work union. 

[Message Board User 12389]

Betting markets swinging bigly to Biden in the last few days.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

[Bruh Man 3160]

35 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Republicans are much better at this.

 

[Message Board User 12389]

3 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Republicans are much better at this.

 

You are correct sir. 

It's why the Lincoln Project ads have been so devastating - they're made by ex-GOP.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

25 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Betting markets swinging bigly to Biden in the last few days.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

No idea what the hell took them that long. 

[Message Board User 12389]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

No idea what the hell took them that long. 

I think there was always a sense that trump was going to be a tough out in the swing states and that the economy could come back bigly before November.  And as long as he stayed within 5 points nationally of Biden it was going to be very dicey.

But these latest polls along with Trump's latest fucktardry is too much to ignore.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

I think there was always a sense that trump was going to be a tough out in the swing states and that the economy could come back bigly before November.  And as long as he stayed within 5 points nationally of Biden it was going to be very dicey.

But these latest polls along with Trump's latest fucktardry is too much to ignore.

Once we shut it down it was over for him. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No idea what the hell took them that long. 

I gave someone 4-1 odds that Trump was going to lose about 3 months ago.  I just think the math is impossible for him, and I thought that before the riots.

[mdmost 42865]

That America or Trump line is so fucking good because it cuts to the choice in this election. Either you are for the ideals of America, as battered and bruised as they may be, or you are for the ideals of authoritarian rule. 

[Francisco 2.0 32341]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No idea what the hell took them that long. 

A gassing.

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32341]

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

50 to 37. Oof

 

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

Crazy that Biden won the primary convincingly and looks to be in such a strong position today...and he's done it spending almost no money and almost no campaigning.

In fact, he could probably just chill in his basement from now until November and he'll win handily.

[gmr548 16513]

7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

[gmr548 16513]

That Fox News set is pretty awful for Trump. A lot can change in five months (of course, we keep saying this about Biden's lead) but if Ohio is essentially tied this is a bloodbath.

CNBC/Change.org is markedly better for Trump. Biden +7 nationally, but Trump up 50-46 in PA. AZ, Fl, MI, NC, and WI within a couple percentage points, though Biden leads most.

[Aqua Buddha 14519]

Trump will not win PA.  Not close.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I gave someone 4-1 odds that Trump was going to lose about 3 months ago.  I just think the math is impossible for him, and I thought that before the riots.

Yeah. Once it was obvious the economy was going to tank (not his fault obviously but he gets to wear it) he was an unloveable candidate with no favorable territory and without an issue to drive people to the polls. It was never going to happen. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

49 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Yeah, that’s just funny right now. And they aren’t changing their mind bc there won’t be a reason to. I used to think this was Biden’s election unless he literally came out and shit himself on the debate stage (I actually mean literal not figurative) but I think he could do that and still win, if you want to be honest. 

Short of Biden using the N word or pedophilia or something like that he’s the next president. 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

36 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That Fox News set is pretty awful for Trump. A lot can change in five months (of course, we keep saying this about Biden's lead) but if Ohio is essentially tied this is a bloodbath.

CNBC/Change.org is markedly better for Trump. Biden +7 nationally, but Trump up 50-46 in PA. AZ, Fl, MI, NC, and WI within a couple percentage points, though Biden leads most.

I don’t buy that for a second. Those state polls probably suck. 

[berlinerbaer 670]

12 hours ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

To reiterate, the GOP is complicit. Republicans when asked about Trump's staged bible photo op.

 

Murkowski is ready to pull an Amash and go indie.

Fuck Ted Cruz. Seriously.

Dare I say it, but Hawley almost sounds presidential.

Romney sounded like he's turtling the rest of the term. What a bullshit answer.

[berlinerbaer 670]

8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, I mean, there's a time issue involved, isn't there?

So long as Trump is the head of the party, the Never Trumpers are staying Democrats irrespective of any policy issues.  And I think Trump is going to remain the head of the party as long as he's alive.  And that's probably until about 2028.

After that, then results do matter.  I mean, eventually the South abandoned the Democratic Party.  But that takes time.  And for it to happen with the South/Democrats, it took something really dramatic.

Same thing here.

 

No way. Trump is phony bravado. Trump is all image and shitty branding. Trump is plausible deniability up until an unequivocal result like a electoral train-spanking makes the long-running con job unsustainable. Trump is badly damaged following a close loss. He is utterly destroyed in the event of an increasingly possible Biden landslide. Irrespective of whether he'll face legal trouble as an ex-president, he won't find nearly enough of an outlet to sustain his cult of personality, even if he can keep the illusion alive.

He spends 100% of his time catering to his dumbass base because he knows how fickle they are. They'll keep eating up the must-see TV until they don't like what they're watching, and a trouncing in November won't be much fun for them, no matter how he tries to spin it. I don't think the rest of the GOP is going to hold sway over these people, so many will drift back into the political shadows from where they came. The GOP will attempt to woo back the Never-Trumpers out of electoral necessity. These people want to win above all else.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Republicans are much better at this.

 

You guys are selling the Democrats short.

 

remember the 2018 midterms?  The Democrats waited until the perfect time to unleash an offensive on the Shity house GOP who voted to strip healthcare away from 25 million people without even having a decent replacement in hand.

this put the GOP on the defensive where senators and congressman were actually making up lies and tweeting about how they voted to protect your pre existing condition coverage and access to healthcare. Only the trumpsters who are generally low IQ individuals believed the tweets and didn’t bother to look at the facts. 
 

the 2018 midterms went so well because the American people discovered ( better late than never I guess) how the GOP flat out lied to them about replacing Obamacare like they promised for years. In 2010, the GOP got the house and yelled “ get us the senate, we will fix healthcare”. In 2014, the GOP got the senate, then said “ we need the presidency! Gosh darn it we will fix healthcare then!”. 
 

2016 election happens and the orange retard is elected. The GOP also retained both the house and the senate. The GOP had 7 years before this point to come up with an alternative to Obamacare that the American people can actually use as a viable healthcare plan. When the GOP had all levers of power, it quickly became apparent that they didn’t have a bill ready to go. How was this possible? These guys have been using Obamacare as their war cry to win elections in the 2010 decade and they have ABSOLUTELY nothing ready to go? 
 

paul Ryan enlists that fat ugly loser from the woodlands Kevin Brady to write the healthcare bill that passes the house. When the senate receives it, McConnell and 9 other old crusty white senators who look and think like him disappear into a back room for months. McConnell emerges a few months later, hoists then bill into GOP senators hands, and says vote for this. McCain does his thing. The maverick gets the ultimate revenge on pussy ass bone spur trump who had the audacity to criticize McCain and his military service because McCain “ got captured”.

even if the bill passed, the GOP had nothing and the healthcare system would be in much worse shape today than it is now.

 

thats what the GOP is. A bunch of old white dudes who are out of touch with society who don’t want to get anything done and they want to hold onto power to stop other people from getting things done. 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

Tim Scott: I've "already said too much"  ???? What the FUCK man ... where is your dignity.

[WBT 20422]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Once we shut it down it was over for him. 

It was over even before the shutdowns, when the stock market dropped 30%.  What did he have left to point to after that?

And someone needed to tell him that Wag the Dog won't work when you're attacking your own citizens.

Edited June 4, 2020 by WBT

[honolulu horn 6157]

17 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Tim Scott: I've "already said too much"  ???? What the FUCK man ... where is your dignity.

He's losing his religion. 

[Storm the Field 5273]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

That Fox News set is pretty awful for Trump. A lot can change in five months (of course, we keep saying this about Biden's lead) but if Ohio is essentially tied this is a bloodbath.

CNBC/Change.org is markedly better for Trump. Biden +7 nationally, but Trump up 50-46 in PA. AZ, Fl, MI, NC, and WI within a couple percentage points, though Biden leads most.

Change Research is a dogshit progressive online-only polling org, and they suck at their jobs especially wherever Biden is concerned. Seriously, they had him up just 4 heading into the SC primary. He won by 29. Their average margin of error was by far the biggest of any org that polled 2020 primaries, primary due to massively underestimating Biden vote share. 

In no fucking world is Joe Biden up 7 nationally, up 3 in Florida, but down 4 in Pennsylvania. 

Look, with 5 months to go, this thing isn't locked down by any means, but all the high-quality live caller polls are telling the same story. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

It was over even before the shutdowns, when the stock market dropped 30%.  What did he have left to point to after that?

And someone needed to tell him that Wag the Dog won't work when you're attacking your own citizens.

Sure. I meant once the economy/market came unglued, not literally the date of the shutdown. But yeah, that was the death knell. 

[Macanudo 12927]

How risky would it be for Joe to go to Lafayatte Square, say tomoorrow morning, walk around and talk to people and then encourage a huge group photo with everyone?

But not in front of the church.   Nope, with the military vehicles and fences in front of the White House.  Then, thank the crowd for being there as Anericans who are exercising their Constitutional rights.  The rights that he will fight to protect as the next President of the United States.

Then lead the group in singing America the Beautiful, remind everyone to vote and mic drop.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

12 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Republicans are much better at this.

 

I think its probably best if the democrats stick to 'positive' messaging and let the Lincoln Project and other Never Trump orgs act as the attack dogs. 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

37 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

How risky would it be for Joe to go to Lafayatte Square, say tomoorrow morning, walk around and talk to people and then encourage a huge group photo with everyone?

But not in front of the church.   Nope, with the military vehicles and fences in front of the White House.  Then, thank the crowd for being there as Anericans who are exercising their Constitutional rights.  The rights that he will fight to protect as the next President of the United States.

Then lead the group in singing America the Beautiful, remind everyone to vote and mic drop.

[SilasCoade 2620]

10 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

 

Fuck Ted Cruz. Seriously.

 

This cannot be stated enough.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

4 hours ago, Macanudo said:

How risky would it be for Joe to go to Lafayatte Square, say tomoorrow morning, walk around and talk to people and then encourage a huge group photo with everyone?

But not in front of the church.   Nope, with the military vehicles and fences in front of the White House.  Then, thank the crowd for being there as Anericans who are exercising their Constitutional rights.  The rights that he will fight to protect as the next President of the United States.

Then lead the group in singing America the Beautiful, remind everyone to vote and mic drop.

Very risky.  We need the candidate alive, not dead of the fucking COVID.

17 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Betting markets swinging bigly to Biden in the last few days.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

And they should be swinging bigly, because for the first time in this campaign, we're seeing movement. 

The nature of the movement is significant.  Trump is and has been stuck at 40-42%.  That's it.  No matter what happens, he stays at that level.  He never gets above 42%.  And you know that's right, because he's making base plays to get his base back together to get up to 46%.  But even with those base plays, he's still right at 41% in every goddamned poll.

The movement is entirely on Biden's side, where his support has bone from around 46% in February to over 50% now.  So this isn't a >10% race because of downward Trump movement that will revert to the mean as he recaptures voters who were previously supportive.  This is a >10% race entirely because previously undecided voters have become decided (almost unanimously) in Joe Biden's favor.

That is a lot more stable race.  And it's a lot worse for Trump.

[gmr548 16513]

And they should be swinging bigly, because for the first time in this campaign, we're seeing movement. 
The nature of the movement is significant.  Trump is and has been stuck at 40-42%.  That's it.  No matter what happens, he stays at that level.  He never gets above 42%.  And you know that's right, because he's making base plays to get his base back together to get up to 46%.  But even with those base plays, he's still right at 41% in every goddamned poll.
The movement is entirely on Biden's side, where his support has bone from around 46% in February to over 50% now.  So this isn't a >10% race because of downward Trump movement that will revert to the mean as he recaptures voters who were previously supportive.  This is a >10% race entirely because previously undecided voters have become decided (almost unanimously) in Joe Biden's favor.
That is a lot more stable race.  And it's a lot worse for Trump.

This. Trump's support is incredibly inelastic. You can confidently bet on his ceiling being the same 46 percent. I really don't see howbthat gets the job done at this point. This is trending toward 2008 level massacre.