2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[henrygandorf 29227]

30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

typical gop senate grandstanding. 7 second pause followed by a ‘just asking questions’ attitude of “what i’m just trying to fathom...”

you wanted to get something on the record that tries to make the dems look sneaky, and you shit your pants. now go sit down. 

[honolulu horn 6231]

6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

2006 would be the last time that happened. Gardner squeaked by in a very GOP-friendly midterm. He's going to lose bigly to a candidate in Hickenlooper thay appears not very interested in winning.

The Cook Political Reports of the world are really behind on how safety Democratic Colorado is now. 45-46 percent is an extremely good showing for a statewide Republican at this point. Trump will not even get that high. Eight years of getting more Democratic since the last narrow GOP win. They just don't have the votes there anymore. Not to take down an incumbent.

I agree that an incumbent Dem in Colorado is safe, but the state as a whole is still pretty purple. Blue urban areas surrounded by lots and lots of red. But definitely tending bluer with more urban citizens, more transplants, and a younger population. 

[honolulu horn 6231]

5 hours ago, Yuk said:

And they can't seem to run their standard playbook of fear.  All their old hits are just hollow as fuck.  And people are just worn out and ready for an adult in the driver's seat.

Totally agree. His standard retreads aren't getting him much mileage anymore. Most people see those tropes (the wall, heritage, derogatory nicknames for opponents) as campaign lies. But like you, I'm sure they'll pivot to something that stirs up the passions in his base. Still don't think it will amount to much in November, though, because it won't resonate with any new voters. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 5098]

4 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Totally agree. His standard retreads aren't getting him much mileage anymore. Most people see those tropes (the wall, heritage, derogatory nicknames for opponents) as campaign lies. But like you, I'm sure they'll pivot to something that stirs up the passions in his base. Still don't think it will amount to much in November, though, because it won't resonate with any new voters. 

I’m assuming it’s going to be Hunter Biden histrionics. That’s exactly the kind of nonsense “scandal” their ultra-base will blindingly eat up, and That could at least confuse some of the more passive fringe voters (e.g., Benghazi). 

[Voldemort86 2259]

This shit is not new from the GOP.

in 2010, it was the old angry white guy tea party movement. Bam 60 house seats and the reddest freaking maps we’ve ever seen. Their rallying cry was Obamacare opposition.

in 2014, their rallying cry to kill Obamacare was “we need the senate!”  And the voters gave it to them.

in 2016, their rallying cry to kill Obamacare was “we need the presidency and total control”. Amazingly enough with the orange doofus one the ballot, the American voters gave them what they wanted again.

in 2017, it became apparent that the GOP was the huge unorganized shit show. They couldn’t even get all of their house republicans on the same page. Every bill was high drama. They had 8 years to come up with a good healthcare bill and totally shit the bed. They came up with nothing and mercifully lost the house in 2018 because of it.

I think people are finally coming around to their lies. The party is a big nothing burger with a bunch of crusty old farts who are way out of touch with reality. They mainly want power to keep it away from the Democrats while simultaneously they never have the balls to pass any meaningful legislation besides OMFG TAX CUTS FOR THE BILLIONAIRES WHO FUND MY CAMPAIGNS. They throw a few crumbs to their low information voting base who think “ My family saved several hundred bucks this year! Awesome”. While millionaires and billionaires save tons of money.

The GOP is in deep shit right now, but they’re a wounded animal. They’re going all in on voter suppression and gerrymandering. These guys know they’re not popular so they sent Trump to cozy up to dictators to gather ideas. They’re looking for ways to keep power despite most of America hating their asses.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I’m assuming it’s going to be Hunter Biden histrionics. That’s exactly the kind of nonsense “scandal” their ultra-base will blindingly eat up, and That could at least confuse some of the more passive fringe voters (e.g., Benghazi). 

It won't work. Hunter Biden is a privileged white kid and everyone knows that's just how it goes when you're a privileged white kid. It's when Trump's base perceives that women and minorities are using "scandalous" tactics to improve their station in life that they get riled up. It's absolutely a white man's right to flex his political and corporate muscles to get his sons into positions of power and profit that they may or may not deserve. Hunter Biden.. yawn.

If that's Trump's ace in the hole, he's in deep shit.

Edited June 25, 2020 by BradInATX

[henrygandorf 29227]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

If that's Trump's ace in the hole, he's in deep shit.

it is, and he is. 

[gmr548 16702]

I agree that an incumbent Dem in Colorado is safe, but the state as a whole is still pretty purple. Blue urban areas surrounded by lots and lots of red. But definitely tending bluer with more urban citizens, more transplants, and a younger population. 

It's pretty much one blue urban area that everyone lives in. The thing about western states is no one lives in those rural red counties. Mathematically you cannot get wrecked in Denver and win the state the way you can lose the big cities here in TX. It's same reason the GOP doesn't compete in Washington or Oregon. Those are the comps for CO at this point. Colorado has gone down that path, Nevada is next, Arizona after that.

[honolulu horn 6231]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, honolulu horn said:

I agree that an incumbent Dem in Colorado is safe, but the state as a whole is still pretty purple. Blue urban areas surrounded by lots and lots of red. But definitely tending bluer with more urban citizens, more transplants, and a younger population. 

It's pretty much one blue urban area that everyone lives in. The thing about western states is no one lives in those rural red counties. Mathematically you cannot get wrecked in Denver and win the state the way you can lose the big cities here in TX. It's same reason the GOP doesn't compete in Washington or Oregon. Those are the comps for CO at this point. Colorado has gone down that path, Nevada is next, Arizona after that.

I'm not in significant disagreement with you, but 1 of the 2 Colorado US senators is Republican and 3 out of 7 US representatives are Republican. So it's not like it's a Democratic bastion at this point in time. Certainly moving that way, though, and agreed that CO has a lot in common demographically with other western states (aside from CA and AZ). It won't be long before it's a foregone conclusion like Oregon and Washington. 

[Francisco 2.0 32597]

NYTimes latest polling:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html

Quote

But for now, the findings confirm that the president’s political standing has deteriorated sharply since October, when Times/Siena polls found Mr. Biden ahead by just two percentage points across the same six states (the gap is now nine points). Since then, the nation has faced a series of crises that would pose a grave political challenge to any president seeking re-election. The polls suggest that battleground-state voters believe the president has struggled to meet the moment.

Over all, 42 percent of voters in the battleground states approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.

These six states — with their mix of major cities, old industrial hubs, growing suburbs, and even farmland — together deliver a grim judgment of Mr. Trump on recent issues that have shaken American life. His handling of the pandemic and the protests after the death of George Floyd help explain his erosion across both old and new battlegrounds.

 

 

2016 Result	NYT/Siena  June 2020
Michigan (n=610)	<1 Trump	+11 Biden 47-36
Wisconsin (655)	<1 Trump	+11 Biden 49-38
Pennsylvania (651)	<1 Trump	+10 Biden 50-40
Florida (651)	+1 Trump	+6 Biden 47-41
Arizona (650)	+4 Trump	+7 Biden 48-41
North Carolina (653)	+4 Trump	+9 Biden 49-40

 

[SydneyCarton 49506]

10 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

NYTimes latest polling:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html

 

 

2016 Result	NYT/Siena  June 2020
Michigan (n=610)	<1 Trump	+11 Biden 47-36
Wisconsin (655)	<1 Trump	+11 Biden 49-38
Pennsylvania (651)	<1 Trump	+10 Biden 50-40
Florida (651)	+1 Trump	+6 Biden 47-41
Arizona (650)	+4 Trump	+7 Biden 48-41
North Carolina (653)	+4 Trump	+9 Biden 49-40

 

I’d love it if someone in the internet had superimposed this poll’s predictions for those states the week before the 2016 elections.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’d love it if someone in the internet had superimposed this poll’s predictions for those states the week before the 2016 elections.

Biden's numbers vs. Clinton's in the 6 battleground states:

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

I live in a blue tilting state now!

 

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

Great new ad from the Lincoln Project:

 

[SimonBolivar 11064]

6 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Great new ad from the Lincoln Project:

 

It's a good ad.

[Biff Tannen 46168]

23 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Biden's numbers vs. Clinton's in the 6 battleground states:

 

This doesn't seem good.  Especially with black voters.  They need to come out in force.

[Pancho 46324]

 

[Pancho 46324]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This doesn't seem good.  Especially with black voters.  They need to come out in force.

Haven’t mentioned it here before but I’m slightly scared some Black voters have taken the bait put out there by trump and his people. From laying Blacks to support him to fake Russian twitter accounts pretending to be Blacks who are anti BLM and pro trump, this has me a little worried. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Kinda want to see the Black women numbers compared to Clinton in 16.  That’s the driving voting block.  

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

This is complete domination right now. And nothing between now and November is going to help Trump. I don't give a shit about the vaccine talk. Trump's COVID response has been criminal, and the rise in cases highlight what a disaster the entire GOP is right now. 

The strategy moving forward is simple. 

- Stay focused and engaged. Stay angry. 

- Fight voter suppression and boost voter turnout as much as possible

- Pick a POC as VP. Don't try to appease progressives with someone like Warren. 

- Fundraise like crazy and put money/resources in every state where they have a chance.. Don't just focus on 6 battleground states. Try to win Texas. Try to win Utah. 

- Don't strategize to win 270 electoral votes. The goal should be 400. Obliterate this motherfucker .

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[Red Five 41739]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Playing around with the electoral map, giving Biden all of those states equates to a 373-164 fuckstomping. 

Add in Texas and it's 411-126. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Something that could save Trump is another crisis (real or manufactured) where he performs exceptionally well.  I do not think he’s capable of pulling that off, even if scripted but our vulnerability right now, as it was in 2016, is a lack of imagination. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

- Pick a POC as VP. Don't try to appease progressives with someone like Warren. 

Fuck yeah!  Don’t try to expand the coalition. Just give me a black Tim Kaine and we’re all good! 

[Biff Tannen 46168]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Something that could save Trump is another crisis (real or manufactured) where he performs exceptionally well.

This presupposes he's performed exceptionally well in a crisis before.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

Given the context, if Trump wins it will carry very heavy meaning.  There’s nothing outside of demagoguery for him.  The economy will not be in good shape.  A Covid vaccine will not be ready and the virus will still be deeply impacting everyone’s daily lives, likely in a more negative way than it is now.  If Trump wins, it will be because there are enough racist fools prone to conspiracy theories to push him over the top (or that our elections are rigged).  I’m not sure the country can recover from that.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

This presupposes he's performed exceptionally well in a crisis before.

Like I said, I don’t think he’s capable 

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Obliterate this motherfucker .

 

Can that be the slogan?

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[Doc Sam Beckett 5908]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fuck yeah!  Don’t try to expand the coalition. Just give me a black Tim Kaine and we’re all good! 

Preposterous 

[4th&Five 42006]

Exceptional for Trump is wiping his ass and not getting shit on his hands. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by 4th&Five

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fuck yeah!  Don’t try to expand the coalition. Just give me a black Tim Kaine and we’re all good! 

Is such a thing possible?  I mean - even if you tried to create it in a lab - I don't think it conceivable.

[Sawbonz 28225]

16 hours ago, Yuk said:

This.  And they can't find a scary label for him.  And they can't seem to run their standard playbook of fear.  All their old hits are just hollow as fuck.  And people are just worn out and ready for an adult in the driver's seat.

Saying that, I expect the totally-not-coordinated, every-two-years. Qanon-type conspiracy stuff to start amping up any day now.

I really think they shot their wad with the Ukraine stuff and the touchy-feely Biden creeper angle. I think it is very fitting that the two things they could arguably pin on Biden pale in comparison to similar deeds by Trump and family. People who would ordinarily be put off with that kind of behavior look over at Trump and think Biden‘s issues are amateur hour. Just like Clinton had trouble hammering Trump about philandering because she stayed with Bill. I saw a poll that showed Biden within the margin of error in Arkansas. If that is true, I don’t see how Trump can’t get to 270. He may not get to 200

[TexEx15 17953]

35 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

It's a good ad.

Correction.  It is a fucking fantastic ad.  

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

17 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Is such a thing possible?  I mean - even if you tried to create it in a lab - I don't think it conceivable.

Not possible but marginalizing the VP to skin color in order to exclude Warren is peak “what progressives hate about the Democratic Party.”

Biden can probably get away with it and still win but it isn’t going to help him get more votes or fundraising money.

Im convinced both Biden and Obama know exactly who the VP pick is going to be.  Biden has known ever since he committed to picking a woman and I believe he openly committed to picking a woman because a particular woman was the best person for the job anyway.  

The pressure Biden has been under to commit to picking a woman of color has been immense and you have to wonder, if he was going to pick a woman of color anyway, why the charade?  Why not commit to it now when it’s most politically advantageous? Warren is going to help him fundraise regardless of who he picks so I have a hard time believing it’s just about the cash she brings in. He’s keeping it secret for strategic reasons which is smart.  If he is going to pick Warren, he’s playing it perfectly right now. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

Warren supporters like Hugo have convinced themselves that VP is some sort of silver medal or consolation prize for her primary run. 

They also believe that with Liz as VP she would be the de facto POTUS, and they will push that angle all over social media if she was selected. Which is exactly what Trump wants. He's desperately trying to find a leftist bogeyman to run against, as all the "socialist!" and "crazy left!" shit clearly hasn't worked with Biden. 

Again, it's very clear this isn't a policy general election. We can't fuck this up. 

If/when Biden dominates and wins the general election, Warren and Bernie Democrats can (and should) challenge Biden to for more progressive policies. Just fucking wait until the election is over. 

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not possible but marginalizing the VP to skin color in order to exclude Warren is peak “what progressives hate about the Democratic Party.”

Biden can probably get away with it and still win but it isn’t going to help him get more votes or fundraising money.

Im convinced both Biden and Obama know exactly who the VP pick is going to be.  Biden has known ever since he committed to picking a woman and I believe he openly committed to picking a woman because a particular woman was the best person for the job anyway.  

The pressure Biden has been under to commit to picking a woman of color has been immense and you have to wonder, if he was going to pick a woman of color anyway, why the charade?  Why not commit to it now when it’s most politically advantageous? Warren is going to help him fundraise regardless of who he picks so I have a hard time believing it’s just about the cash she brings in. He’s keeping it secret for strategic reasons which is smart.  If he is going to pick Warren, he’s playing it perfectly right now. 

There's so much bullshit in the post that I don't know where to begin. 

BTW, Warren's "fundraising" prowess with Biden so far mainly consists of high dollar, wealthy donors. I guess maybe Juvertson will give Joe $14 million like she did for Warren at the end of her primary run. Lovely. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Did you know Elizabeth Warren was a Republican? 

Did you hear about this from 2016? 

Have you been paying attention to Obama?

Obama in December.. 

Obama talks up Warren behind closed doors to wealthy donors

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/475576-obama-talks-up-warren-behind-closed-doors-to-wealthy-donors

 

Obama in April..

Obama last week..,

These tea leaves are not difficult to read.

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not possible but marginalizing the VP to skin color in order to exclude Warren is peak “what progressives hate about the Democratic Party.”

Biden can probably get away with it and still win but it isn’t going to help him get more votes or fundraising money.

Im convinced both Biden and Obama know exactly who the VP pick is going to be.  Biden has known ever since he committed to picking a woman and I believe he openly committed to picking a woman because a particular woman was the best person for the job anyway.  

The pressure Biden has been under to commit to picking a woman of color has been immense and you have to wonder, if he was going to pick a woman of color anyway, why the charade?  Why not commit to it now when it’s most politically advantageous? Warren is going to help him fundraise regardless of who he picks so I have a hard time believing it’s just about the cash she brings in. He’s keeping it secret for strategic reasons which is smart.  If he is going to pick Warren, he’s playing it perfectly right now. 

I guess I'll give it a go. 

The only people I see "marginalizing the VP to skin color" are Warren supporters. There are qualified Black women. Stop acting like there aren't. 

"Biden can probably get away with it and still win" - Oh, you think so, doctor? Biden's lead over Trump grows every fucking day. They are clearly doing something right. This is not the time to throw a curveball when straight heaters are getting the job done. 

"Why the charade?" - He's probably properly vetting candidates. He's always said that he wouldn't rush the VP pick. Clearly the timing is not having a negative effect on his candidacy right now.

"If he's going to pick Warren, he's playing it perfectly right now" - I guess anything can happen, but that must be one hell of an echo chamber you're living in. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

10 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I guess I'll give it a go. 

The only people I see "marginalizing the VP to skin color" are Warren supporters. There are qualified Black women. Stop acting like there aren't. 

"Biden can probably get away with it and still win" - Oh, you think so, doctor? Biden's lead over Trump grows every fucking day. They are clearly doing something right. This is not the time to throw a curveball when straight heaters are getting the job done. 

"Why the charade?" - He's probably properly vetting candidates. He's always said that he wouldn't rush the VP pick. Clearly the timing is not having a negative effect on his candidacy right now.

"If he's going to pick Warren, he's playing it perfectly right now" - I guess anything can happen, but that must be one hell of an echo chamber you're living in. 

The baseball analogy is perfect here:  Your fastball is working, you are controlling the plate.  There is zero need to start showing your 2nd and 3rd pitches until necessary.  It's Halladay's Razor:  Don't change what's working until you need to.

Also, Occam's Razor:  Avoid unnecessary multiplication.  He's taking his time and thoroughly vetting the candidates.

[pyrohornIII 4846]

I personally would prefer Warren to stay in the Senate and take over McConnell's place when the senate goes blue next term.   I think she'd be much more beneficial there than as VP.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, pyrohornIII said:

I personally would prefer Warren to stay in the Senate and take over McConnell's place when the senate goes blue next term. 

This is a fantasy that will never happen even if the Senate flips blue. Schumer is not going to unilaterally surrender power. 

Biden is going to pick who he's going to pick, nothing I say or do is going to have influence on his decision. 

Warren wants the VP job. I'm cool with that but it's funny so many people here aren't. 

 

[Herpa Derpa 6344]

But what kind of message would that send to the progressives?  Won't someone please think of the poor progressives!

Edited June 25, 2020 by Herpa Derpa
response to Pyro. No point in discussing with others who live in their world instead of this world.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

that's ayer testimony yesterday shook me up.  he makes a pretty compelling case that barr is going to manufacture an october surprise and indict some people right before the election to try to repeat the comey magic of 2016.  

 

now it is 84D chess.  do the dems spotlight it so that people will recognize it as corrupt when it happens -- thereby amplifying the message (and perhaps even relieve barr from actually needing to do it at all) -- or stay silent and hope that it doesn't have any real electoral effect.  Of course, the fact that they had hearings where this was the testimony indicates they are already doing the former to some extent.

[Voldemort86 2259]

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-electoral-college-trumps-floodgates-are-creaking/
 

big update from Sabato or the crystal ball.

electoral college rating changes :

Pennsylvania moves from toss up to Lean Democrat.

Florida moves from Lean Republican to Tossup.

 

the article has some very good detailed information. Basically, the people in rural Pennsylvania aren’t nearly as turned off by Biden as they were for Clinton and the olds in Florida like Biden much much better then they did Clinton.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-electoral-college-trumps-floodgates-are-creaking/
 

big update from Sabato or the crystal ball.

electoral college rating changes :

Pennsylvania moves from toss up to Lean Democrat.

Florida moves from Lean Republican to Tossup.

 

the article has some very good detailed information. Basically, the people in rural Pennsylvania aren’t nearly as turned off by Biden as they were for Clinton and the olds in Florida like Biden much much better then they did Clinton.

 

a florida +7 poll means florida is a tossup.  FL gonna FL

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

a florida +7 poll means florida is a tossup.  FL gonna FL

The Florida GOP has an amazing get out the vote operation. They always seem to get just enough voters come out to beat the Democrats. It looks like Florida will be much harder for trump to win then in 2016. That’s all we know for sure right now tho.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

He's taking his time and thoroughly vetting the candidates.

Or he's being strategic by drawing the process out with plenty of misdirection.  He's not giving Trump another target to prematurely attack and he's allowing his campaign to get an enthusiasm boost when he most needs it.  You really think this hasn't been decided already?  That would seem almost negligent within 150 days to an election against Donald Trump.   

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Or he's being strategic by drawing the process out with plenty of misdirection.  He's not giving Trump another target to prematurely attack and he's allowing his campaign to get an enthusiasm boost when he most needs it.  You really think this hasn't been decided already?  That would seem almost negligent within 150 days to election.   

i think he sees the national mood is on the protests right now and sees that helps him.  doesn't want to distract from that.  he was probably going to announce a few weeks ago when G Floyd was murdered and doesn't want to end that news cycle.