2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 44773]

I'd recommend taking those NYT state polls with with a healthy grain of salt. The samples are crap. Don't be surprised if Trump "closes the gap" even if nothing significant happens in future polls. Very high sampling error in those.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think he sees the national mood is on the protests right now and sees that helps him.  doesn't want to distract from that.  he was probably going to announce a few weeks ago when G Floyd was murdered and doesn't want to end that news cycle.

August has always been the target date.  Even before George Floyd.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/05/27/biden-hopes-to-announce-running-mate-by-august-1/#2e9ef6015816

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Gengs1 2583]

With all BLM protests going on, Biden isn’t picking a white lady to be his vp, that would be a big slap in the face for the movement

if anyone can fuck up a good thing, it’s a Democrats. They usually mess up at the finish line 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Gengs1

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

6 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

With all BLM protests going on, Biden isn’t picking a white lady to be his vp, that would be a big slap in the face for the movement

You talk to a lot of BLM activists about this?  I think you'd be surprised to learn they value policy on racial justice a hell of a lot more than the color of someone's skin.  

[Bateshorn 9989]

23 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Or he's being strategic by drawing the process out with plenty of misdirection.  He's not giving Trump another target to prematurely attack and he's allowing his campaign to get an enthusiasm boost when he most needs it.  You really think this hasn't been decided already?  That would seem almost negligent within 150 days to an election against Donald Trump.   

Biden is running clock. Anything that keeps trump in the news negatively for another week is one less week for Trump to start a turn around. But I also believe he wants to be comfortably with his VP the way Obama was with him.  This definitely isn't going to be JFK/LBJ or FDR/Nance.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Biden is running clock. Anything that keeps trump in the news negatively for another week is one less week for Trump to start a turn around. But I also believe he wants to be comfortably with his VP the way Obama was with him.  This definitely isn't going to be JFK/LBJ or FDR/Nance.

so in your opinion, the reason we don't have a vp nomination is

1) this war

2) that lying son of a bitch johnson

[gmr548 16681]

This doesn't seem good.  Especially with black voters.  They need to come out in force.

I mean, those are both massive margins, and that doesn't include any discussion of black turnout, which was lower in key areas like Milwaukee and Detroit. If Biden can get a significant increase in black turnout that margin is similar enough that no one would claim he did worse, because he wouldn't.

That's honestly kind of a disengenuious tweet.

[Macanudo 13256]

Truman was the last candidate to travel by train and give whistestop speeches.  I think Biden should do this.  It would be very easy to pull into any number of places to give speeches.    Turn out would pretty good if people were outside and would feel comfortable in the open air rather than enclosed arenas.  Security is a little hard to pull off but its doable.  With the right train and schedules, Joe could be on the road for quite some time with minimal concern for health, his or others.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I think to combat the impression of Biden as too old and behind the times, he should campaign like people did 70 years ago

[Lagunamadre 1975]

12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

so in your opinion, the reason we don't have a vp nomination is

1) this war

2) that lying son of a bitch johnson

I think you should go home to Greebow ALA BAMA 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

41 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The Florida GOP has an amazing get out the vote operation. They always seem to get just enough voters come out to beat the Democrats. It looks like Florida will be much harder for trump to win then in 2016. That’s all we know for sure right now tho.

And every fucking election Florida starts very red and then we all get our hopes up as the Miami votes trickle in, but it's never enough to flip the state blue.  Fuck Florida.

[Pancho 46054]

8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Truman was the last candidate to travel by train and give whistestop speeches.  I think Biden should do this.  It would be very easy to pull into any number of places to give speeches.    Turn out would pretty good if people were outside and would feel comfortable in the open air rather than enclosed arenas.  Security is a little hard to pull off but its doable.  With the right train and schedules, Joe could be on the road for quite some time with minimal concern for health, his or others.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

9 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Truman was the last candidate to travel by train and give whistestop speeches.  I think Biden should do this.  It would be very easy to pull into any number of places to give speeches.    Turn out would pretty good if people were outside and would feel comfortable in the open air rather than enclosed arenas.  Security is a little hard to pull off but its doable.  With the right train and schedules, Joe could be on the road for quite some time with minimal concern for health, his or others.

I am 100% for this.

[smuggs 9394]

8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Truman was the last candidate to travel by train and give whistestop speeches.  I think Biden should do this.  It would be very easy to pull into any number of places to give speeches. 

Wouldn't be able to stop in Wichita. Lessin' he's a hog or a cattle. People train run outta Stubbville.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think to combat the impression of Biden as too old and behind the times, he should campaign like people did 70 years ago

Well played Underminer. IF THAT IS YOUR REAL NAME!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And every fucking election Florida starts very red and then we all get our hopes up as the Miami votes trickle in, but it's never enough to flip the state blue.  Fuck Florida.

FL in 2000 was called Gore when it was like 1% in, GWB up 28,000-8,000 or something ridiculous like that.

 

(not trying to be contrarian, but just have a very vivid memory of that because it was so over the top dumb from the outset)

[Zonahorn 8079]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And every fucking election Florida starts very red and then we all get our hopes up as the Miami votes trickle in, but it's never enough to flip the state blue.  Fuck Florida.

I don't know how many times this has to happen, NEVER rely on Florida for anything,

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

I don't know how many times this has to happen, NEVER rely on Florida for anything,

 

 

It’s Tempting to think about because Florida would be the death blow for Trump and we could all relax the rest of election night. Would be sweet.

[BradInATX 9208]

It’s Tempting to think about because Florida would be the death blow for Trump and we could all relax the rest of election night. Would be sweet.

Saying "we could all relax the rest of the night" is a weird way to say get shitfaced and party our asses off.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s Tempting to think about because Florida would be the death blow for Trump and we could all relax the rest of election night. Would be sweet.

Saying "we could all relax the rest of the night" is a weird way to say get shitfaced and party our asses off.

that's what I assumed he meant

[The Dog 44773]

You have to remember that outside of the greater Miami/FLL/West Palm area that Florida is basically Georgia or Alabama. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You have to remember that outside of the greater Miami/FLL/West Palm area that Florida is basically Georgia or Alabama. 

Jacksonville went to trump last time. Duval county is very important. 
 

Biden is supposedly polling well there.

[Pancho 46054]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s Tempting to think about because Florida would be the death blow for Trump and we could all relax the rest of election night. Would be sweet.

Saying "we could all relax the rest of the night" is a weird way to say get shitfaced and party our asses off.

I'll be shitfaced regardless.  It will be my mood that will be the question.

Shitfaced and unbelievably excited: Biden wins

Shitfaced and ready to die within the next four years: Trump wins

[The Dog 44773]

4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Jacksonville went to trump last time. Duval county is very important. 
 

Biden is supposedly polling well there.

Agreed and I was going to mention that but I don't buy those polls yet.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

This doesn't seem good.  Especially with black voters.  They need to come out in force.

Percentage ≠ turnout. Black women in Alabama didn't vote for Doug Jones at a higher percentage than Clinton, but at a higher rate. 

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Kinda want to see the Black women numbers compared to Clinton in 16.  That’s the driving voting block.  

Hugo gets it!

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fuck yeah!  Don’t try to expand the coalition. Just give me a black Tim Kaine and we’re all good! 

Hugo doesn't get it.

 

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s Tempting to think about because Florida would be the death blow for Trump and we could all relax the rest of election night. Would be sweet.

[Zonahorn 8079]

4 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Obama won Florida twice.  Florida is more likely to flip to Biden than some of the shiny new objects like Arizona and Georgia (although they're, at least at the moment, also pretty likely to flip to Biden).  It won't help that Florida's GOP governor has been possibly the most embarrassing on COVID and that cases are in the process of skyrocketing there.  That and Trump's nonsense will not go over well with the retirees.  It's like picking the one subject that will make a crusty old crank turn on Republicans.  The only thing worse would be getting Dan Patrick to campaign for him there and give his "old people should die for the economy" speech.

People hated Hillary Clinton, especially old people.  Florida is no more a GOP safe haven than any other swing state.

Mark Kelly will probably pull Biden across.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Florida has a steady supply of 62 y/o retirees moving in every single day. That will not change. 
 

What has changed is Puerto Rico got fucked by the hurricane and our response, which has driven in approx 400k to the state, where their vote actually matters now. Getting them out is paramount for success there, and why Andrew Gillum’s drug problems hurt even more in getting out the vote. Combined with the felons getting their voting rights back and the constant adjustments to that, it could spill over this year if tapped into correctly.

[Macanudo 13256]

37 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think to combat the impression of Biden as too old and behind the times, he should campaign like people did 70 years ago

Yeah, yeah.  I thought about that.  But I think theres a way to do this and make it look progressive and hip.  A couple of years ago Mumford and Sons did this and the turnout was crazy. 

Hell, travel by train and then disembark for open air speeches at places like Zilker, Discovery Green in Houston, etc.  Encourage people to walk and  bikes to the locales.  That works better in some cities than others.  But campaigning differently, even if little retro, in this environment would be eye catching.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 He's always said that he wouldn't rush the VP pick. Clearly the timing is not having a negative effect on his candidacy right now.

"If he's going to pick Warren, he's playing it perfectly right now" - I guess anything can happen, but that must be one hell of an echo chamber you're living in. 

I would like for him to take his time. Less ability for the GOP/Russia Machine to zero in on his pick. Every time someone's name comes up, the bots and media hone in and attack.

With respect to the second sentence, while I would like to think the DNC/Biden campaign has some strategy, I'm leaning towards it's just pure happenstance; Warren, Harris or any other candidate that he has in mind.

51 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Biden is running clock. Anything that keeps trump in the news negatively for another week is one less week for Trump to start a turn around.

Nice comparison with the clock, thus far it's working. Don't mess with what's working but keep in mind the path ahead.

[Storm the Field 5360]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

I'd recommend taking those NYT state polls with with a healthy grain of salt. The samples are crap. Don't be surprised if Trump "closes the gap" even if nothing significant happens in future polls. Very high sampling error in those.

The unskewer has arrived on cue. I'm sure Nate Cohn is sitting around waiting to hear The Dog's thoughts on sample weighting.

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I love how y’all think Trump isn’t going to paint Kamala Harris as a crazy BLM terrorist from ultra liberal San Francisco.  Did you know she tried to ban Trump from Twitter?  That’s going to play well. 

Im just saying if you’re afraid of the already exhausted attacks Warren would draw, you’re not thinking through the alternatives.  

[Storm the Field 5360]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

This doesn't seem good.  Especially with black voters.  They need to come out in force.

Uhh, if Biden doesn't gain a single black or latino vote over Clinton but does multiple points better with women, non-college whites and whites in general, that's an easy win.

[The Dog 44773]

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

The unskewer has arrived on cue. I'm sure Nate Cohn is sitting around waiting to hear The Dog's thoughts on sample weighting.

 

Direct quote from Redfield & Wilton's results, which is all I'm saying:

"These differences all fall within the Margins of Error, such that while the President lost significant ground in our national poll earlier this month, we are hesitant to say the picture has substantively changed in these six swing states."

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/

[henrygandorf 29221]

lots to catch up on this morning...

1. looking at the % with hillary vs biden on people of color is kinda silly.  hillary won that demo by like 80 points.  biden will too.  it's all about turnout.  i know i sound like a broken record, but african-americans/latinos are not going to win this for biden.  women will.

2. lulz at biden needing to "expand his base" to warren democrats.  pretty sure they're already voting for biden.  and fundraising is going swimmingly.  warren can be as involved in the biden campaign/presidency as she wants without being named the vp.  no matter how many tweets pop up about "but obama privately said", spare me the drama.  acting like picking a qualified black woman is tokenism is insulting to at least 3-4 different candidates.

3. as much as i hope fl, nc, pa, and other eastern states make election night a laugher, i have a bad feeling that the large number of mail-in ballots are going to make the count a little wonky, and not what we're used to.  we may not know for sure about some states until wed.  but at that point, it should only matter to the gamblers and the girlfriends.  i plan on a diet of brown liquor starting around 3pm my time.

p.s. a black tim kaine (or a black female tim kaine) paired with biden would beat trump.  let's not confuse things.

 

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I love how y’all think Trump isn’t going to paint Kamala Harris as a crazy BLM terrorist from ultra liberal San Francisco.  Did you know she tried to ban Trump from Twitter?  That’s going to play well. 

Im just saying if you’re afraid of the already exhausted attacks Warren would draw, you’re not thinking through the alternatives.  

he's going to say she ran a horrible presidential campaign.  he thinks that's the ultimate insult and he uses it whenever possible.

[henrygandorf 29221]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Direct quote from Redfield & Wilton's results, which is all I'm saying:

"These differences all fall within the Margins of Error, such that while the President lost significant ground in our national poll earlier this month, we are hesitant to say the picture has substantively changed in these six swing states."

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/

i think after 16 months of steady polling, we can stop using the term "margin of error" with any level of credibility.

4 point lead in one poll = moe.  4 point lead in all the polls = a 4 point lead.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

The Trump campaign has a dossier ready to go for any candidate. That's known.

None of this is going to matter though. @BehoId, The Underminer! has a reasonable scenario with Barr. He traveled to Italy  in the fall of last year pre-COVID, presumably to discuss the Mueller Report. Pompeo went with him, officially reported as otherwise State Dept. business. You can't cook without ingredients, and Barr is composing a dish but it's not time to serve it...yet. Has to get all the players out of hot water first. Flynn is done. Not too much more, and he'll be lighting the candles and dimming the lights.

[Guest Lobo]

He uses that because insulting how bad somebody’s presidential campaign went as a Republican, they still end of worshipping Trump (Cruz, Paul, Carson, Christie, et. al.). However; doesn’t apply to democrats or even historical republicans.  

[The Dog 44773]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think after 16 months of steady polling, we can stop using the term "margin of error" with any level of credibility.

4 point lead in one poll = moe.  4 point lead in all the polls = a 4 point lead.

I agree with that - I'm just pointing out the apparent massive leads that some are putting out there and that those are likely the outliers. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I love how y’all think Trump isn’t going to paint Kamala Harris as a crazy BLM terrorist from ultra liberal San Francisco.  Did you know she tried to ban Trump from Twitter?  That’s going to play well. 

Im just saying if you’re afraid of the already exhausted attacks Warren would draw, you’re not thinking through the alternatives.  

Yeah, but it won't work against Kamala. It very well might with Warren. You're the one not thinking it through. 

 

[G650 14422]

Warren fans are the biggest beating.

[henrygandorf 29221]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yeah, but it won't work against Kamala. It very well might with Warren. You're the one not thinking it through. 

to take it one step further, start thinking about what a vicious attack from the president looks like when the target is a black woman.

a little different when it's an older, wealthy "coastal elite" white woman who's already done the mea culpa acknowledging his infantile "pocahontas" nickname.  trump wants it to be warren.  that should tell you everything you need to know.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

7 minutes ago, G650 said:

Warren fans are the biggest beating.

I'd like to introduce you to a Bernie fan. Teammate, Bad.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

Warren fans are the biggest beating.

I'm a Warren fan. What's the deal? I'd like her to help Biden unseat Trump. Period. A second like is that she be somewhere working whether it be in the Senate or the Cabinet. She is an asset to the Party. I'd prefer not to toss away an asset. I'm rather thankful that there are so many qualified candidates regardless of gender, although I'm pretty tickled that women are gaining more substantial roles in politics. I also like Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, and several other candidates that hopefully will continue to work together. It makes for a promising future compared to some of the dipshits running around talking about the Antifa suburban takeover.

[G650 14422]

Just now, Irwin F Fletcher said:

I'd like to introduce you to a Bernie fan. Teammate, Bad.

Honestly at this point I'll take Bernie fans. bad teammate is obviously insane, but overall the Warren fans are just so unrelentingly ridiculous.

[riloh05 107]

did bidens camp really agree to 3 debates? that can only hurt his chances, not improve.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

Honestly at this point I'll take Bernie fans. bad teammate is obviously insane, but overall the Warren fans are just so unrelentingly ridiculous.

yeah, at the risk of getting dragged, at least berners were rallying behind ideas and an almost unrelenting consistency in those ideas. Warren just doesn't have a dick. That seemed to be her only real appeal. Don't get me wrong, she had good ideas, but they were pretty flaccid compared to Bernie's platform

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

1 minute ago, riloh05 said:

did bidens camp really agree to 3 debates? that can only hurt his chances, not improve.

do you honestly think dotard shows up to any of them?