2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[LTbear 4168]

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Looks like the both sides trolls have arrived. 

In my experience the "both sides" people are really just Trump supporters who are too much of a pussy to say it outright, so they make a chickenshit excuse for it.

[SydneyCarton 48054]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think the role of morale cannot be understated right now.  Not just with the voters, but with Trump as well.

As to Trump's voters, they are disproportionately uneducated and rural.  They're precisely the type of people who show up in polls as "marginal voters"--they vote in presidential years, for the most part.  But not always.  And because they're low-information and uneducated, they see politics only as a team sport; they don't understand or give a shit about policy.  Convince them that Trump doesn't have a chance of winning, and they won't show up.  

The effect on Trump is similar, in part because he's such a political novice.  Beat him down; demoralize him; convince him he's not winning, and you'll see his energy sink.  He'll just give up on it.

And, actually, I think there's a chance he could literally give up on it.  I think the Biden camp would be wise to put some anti-Pence ads in the can, just in case.

As a former Republican, I can tell you that in Republican circles, this is the day we feared but at the same time never thought would actually arrive.  If the GOP can't reliably carry Texas without putting any resources into it, then it's days as a national party are over.  Texas is so expensive to run in that it would divert resources away from other places that the GOP needs to carry in order to win (e.g., Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania).  

Texas really is a rear-guard action.  You've already lost; now you're just trying to prevent a rout.

I have no actual data to back this up, but my suspicion is that movement among the olds is the near-sole driver of Trump's losses over the past three months.

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

[SydneyCarton 48054]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

Yeah, I totally get what you're saying, and I agree from what we see that he has a pathological fear of losing and being embarrassed. The latter plays out daily in his behavior for all the world to see. It's generally accepted by many that he only ran in 2016 to increase his brand, write some books, sell merch. He didn't expect to win and was ready to endorse Christie or someone else. Then he won. Then it's been one catastrophe after another that should have sunk any other politician over 4 years (impeachment, etc). What I'm getting at, as that I think this numbskull's pile of cognitive dissonance he calls a brain can balance both his fear of losing and embarrassment and his belief he's unstoppable at the same time. 

[Hank Kingsley 20903]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

[SydneyCarton 48054]

13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

Well, even he knows he can't say "Listen fuckers, I'm stealing this election so deal with it."

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, even he knows he can't say "Listen fuckers, I'm stealing this election so deal with it."

This. Hammer the jokes, take up space in his head, and turn away support but the man is not going to leave the WH voluntarily.

That bit from the interview is CLASSIC Trump. "Well, you don't like me you JEWS, but you have to vote for me." He essentially said that at a meeting.

And his set up delivery was again, classic: lead in with all the ways Biden is inept: he can't speak, etc etc.

Nope, no pity, no pardon, light the mf up until he's the butt of all jokes.

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Surprised to see Arizona so high and Florida so low. Arizona hasn’t gone blue since 1996 and that required a plurality thanks to Ross Perot. 

I personally think Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost gone from trump irreversibly at this point.
 

Because shit changes

[The Dog 44017]

Trump:2020::Hillary:2016

[Biff Tannen 45661]

I'm pretty floored by the repeal Obamacare play right now.  It really does feel like they are trying to lose.  But this is a simulation, so perhaps it will work.

[Biff Tannen 45661]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

Re: the second quote.  Isn't that how elections tend to work?  

[Tuco 5076]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

I don't know NPD, but I do know developers. 

When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards.  They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size.  It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation.  I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence.  (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate.  The next few months could be interesting.  Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran?  Pulling out of NATO?  That would change the calculation.  Supporting reparations?  Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago. 

[Dbeasy 15040]

The GOP has completely alienated an awful lot of people, certainly under the age of 45. There's a decent chance the Republican Party doesn't even exist in 16 years.

A virus evolves in order to survive.

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm pretty floored by the repeal Obamacare play right now.  It really does feel like they are trying to lose.  But this is a simulation, so perhaps it will work.

They're not trying to lose but they know they're going to lose.  The idea now is to ram through as much shit as possible, as quickly as possible, before they lose. 

[The Dog 44017]

16 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I don't know NPD, but I do know developers. 

When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards.  They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size.  It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation.  I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence.  (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate.  The next few months could be interesting.  Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran?  Pulling out of NATO?  That would change the calculation.  Supporting reparations?  Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago. 

If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right. Remember he put him on the ticket to secure their support. 

But if you are of the type who is hoping the Republican Party exits this election in a heap of smoldering ash then you should be rooting for this. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

23 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

They're not trying to lose but they know they're going to lose.  The idea now is to ram through as much shit as possible, as quickly as possible, before they lose. 

I just hope they take the senate majority down with them.

 

mitch McConnell is a cancer to the whole country.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Chuckie Finster 22692]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right.

hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote

[BradInATX 9208]

If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right.

Lol

[BradInATX 9208]

Damnit chuckie

[The Dog 44017]

11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote

You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 

Really?

He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

Edited June 26, 2020 by The Dog

[High Plains Drifter 11024]

12 hours ago, WBT said:

The pendulum will swing back in way less than 16 years.  The Ds will overreach and the Rs will make changes.  It's a two party system; we'll never stay too far from equilibrium.

 

The pendulum is not a good analogy. The equilibrium position of a pendulum never changes no matter how great the amplitude of the swing.

What we are seeing is a movement of the equilibrium. This has always been the case, the equilibrium generally moves, in fits and starts, more liberal-- with reversals of course (see DoTArd).

 

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."- Theodore Parker

 

[High Plains Drifter 11024]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 

Really?

 

Yes really. doTard is the chose one. Chosen by God, so sayeth the Lord.

 

[BrickHorn 18216]

31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

A virus evolves in order to survive.

The thing is: the GOP tried to evolve to attract younger and minority voters. Remember “compassionate conservatism?” As recently as 2016, the Republican establishment was grooming Marco Rubio as the conservative Obama. I have friends in the party who were convinced Rubio was their savior and would usher in a new era of Big Tent Conservatism. Michael Steele was the party chair. The Bushes were pushing for immigration reform. 

And then Trump came along and the GOP dropped the illusion of a conscience to go all-in on nihilistic hedonism. 

[immamac 42834]

The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

[bluto 4912]

You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 
Really?
He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

As somebody with family members who are that segment, all trump has to do is slander pence and it’s a non factor

[High Plains Drifter 11024]

34 minutes ago, immamac said:

The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

 

I agree 100%, but you might as well wish to shit gold doubloons.

Until we have some sort of proportional representative political scheme, we are stuck with two parties.

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

12 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I agree 100%, but you might as well wish to shit gold doubloons.

Until we have some sort of proportional representative political scheme, we are stuck with two parties.

 

The two party system is a feature, not a flaw of our Constitution.  If you hate the two parties,  then you are really arguing for full blown structural reform.  Which means you have to tell your  uncle or any other old to STFU when they start babbling on about the Founders.

The founders were just attempting to lock in the existing capital structure and forestall a civil war until after their lifetimes.  That’s it.  They didn’t and don’t give a fuck about us.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Bateshorn

[G650 14229]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The two party system is a feature, not a flaw of our Constitution.  If you hate the two parties,  then you are really arguing for full blown structural reform.  Which means you have to tell your  uncle or any other old to STFU when they start babbling on about the Founders.

The founders were just attempting to lock in the existing capital structure and forestall a civil war until after their lifetimes.  That’s it.  They didn’t and don’t give a fuck about us.

It's not just that. Power will congregate. Everyone who pines for no parties would have a massive problem with who the power congregated with, without the party structure to control it. Like Trump on steroids.

[Biff Tannen 45661]

Consolidate?

[Dropout 355]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

[G650 14229]

19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Consolidate?

 A worthy synonym. But concentrating would actually be the most common expression if you want to get down to it.

[Zonahorn 8079]

The both sides trolls are out

[The Dog 44017]

Here's a poll I bet Trump tweets about later today: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows

Regional breakdown of the sample:

Northeast: 18%

Midwest: 21%

South: 37%

West: 24%

[Ghost of LL 15531]

39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Here's a poll I bet Trump tweets about later today: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows

Regional breakdown of the sample:

Northeast: 18%

Midwest: 21%

South: 37%

West: 24%

Yeah--Harris is a known shit pollster.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33859]

I'll ask again: who are these people getting polled? To my knowledge i have never been called. Never been emailed. Is it just people with land lines?

[Storm the Field 5291]

Hill/HarrisX is such a turd. Online only. 

Over the past month they've shown 43/39, 47/37, 42/41.

Here are some of their utterly inexplicable numbers for Biden this week. Compare to any other poll and try not to laugh.

Black 67%

Democrats 78%

College Degree+ 45%

 

[Pancho 44688]

 

[Guest Lobo]

For decades, a Republican candidate for President didn't have to spend money in Georgia (despite some sub-5% margins in 2016 and 2008).

One of you folks that enjoys the maths as a hobby (NERDS!)...you'll do well to track ad spending in certain states and compare it up against how much voter fraud Trump claims happened in those states.  They'll cite and investigate the very same states they dumped the most money into.  I can't imagine why that would be?  Oh yeah, people of youth and people of color coming out vote.  And we all know if there's one thing young black people love.....it's mailing items!  Voter Fraud, ahhhh!  

[Red Five 40827]

16 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'll ask again: who are these people getting polled? 

Your mom gets poled. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33859]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Your mom gets poled. 

likely, but that wasn't the question

[thepop 4409]

On 6/25/2020 at 3:15 PM, Chuckie Finster said:

If you're looking for a reason to vote Biden that isn't just "he's not Trump," Jon Stewart lays it out here.

Man i miss Jon Stewart. He's right like always. Biden was far from my first choice but it turns out he may have been the best choice after all.

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Gonna be interesting to see how Southern Democrats divvy up TV advertising money vs digital advertising in the coming weeks. R Governors risking their constituents lives by not shutting down a second time to try and will their way through this sacrifice their own support while McConnell came out today touting masks and even Dick Cheney doing the same. Unless Donald makes the 180, (he won’t) there is a core constituency that I’m not sure will follow their statewide leaders pivots for public health in opposition to Trump.That hurts their baked in numbers and the digital advertising will reach those staying at home but being online and givesbetter name recognition for their uphill election.

[henrygandorf 29189]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Here's a poll I bet Trump tweets about later today: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows

Regional breakdown of the sample:

Northeast: 18%

Midwest: 21%

South: 37%

West: 24%

this poll looks great, stay the course, don, don't change a thing.  we got this.

[TwiceHorn 31436]

21 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Your concern troll is showing.  The fact that you think Harris satisfies the base shows how little you understand progressive politics. Just because she’s black doesn’t mean she’s progressive.  Check back with your handlers man, you’ve mis calibrated this board. 

Just fucking stop with the "concern troll" bullshit.  It's getting tiresome.

We get that you're the self-righteous, highly political knowitall.  Doesn't make everyone else a troll. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[cactusflinthead 27598]

538 gives Harris a C, R+1.3

Ain't skairt 

[The Dog 44017]

15 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

this poll looks great, stay the course, don, don't change a thing.  we got this.

Yeah I'd love to have him continue to bury his head in the sand but the ad buy in Georgia tells us what we need to know about his internals.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yeah I'd love to have him continue to bury his head in the sand but the ad buy in Georgia tells us what we need to know about his internals.

Says a lot that he’s having to spend money in places like Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa. Those places should realistically be all sewn up for Trump.

also tells you that Biden should get to spend 90% of the campaign on offense trying to flip trump states.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Bozo_Casanova 26433]

11 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Looks like the both sides trolls have arrived. 

They’re already here

 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[Storm the Field 5291]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hill/HarrisX is such a turd. Online only. 

Over the past month they've shown 43/39, 47/37, 42/41.

Here are some of their utterly inexplicable numbers for Biden this week. Compare to any other poll and try not to laugh.

Black 67%

Democrats 78%

College Degree+ 45%

 

In case it wasn't clear, these aren't margins, they're total support. As in Biden only pulling 67% of black vote, 78% of Dems, and 45% of people with at least a 4-year degree.

By comparison:

NYT/Siena: 79/5 black, 90/5 Dem, 57/30 college degree.

YouGov: 81/6 black, 89/6 Dem, 60/28 college degree.