2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Bama Chick 28596]

Impressive.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-debates-f8bfa673-d8e5-4a4c-9134-c2b3cce62a70.html
 

here’s an interesting report on Trump and his debate prep.

1 thing that I thought was interesting is Miller is already trying to downplay the “Biden is has dementia” by saying he’s actually a good debater. I guess team trump is worried that they set the bar so low on Biden that if Biden does decent, it will blow up in their faces. 
 

the debates rarely seem to matter tho. Usually the polling on “who won?” Is always a partisan 50/50.

 

[maninblack 7974]

Biden/Harris 2020: Cop a Feel

[tantric superman 4667]

2 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President.

C'mon man!

[bolverk 29717]

14 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Biden/Harris 2020: Cop a Feel

Trrump/Pence 2020: Grab a Pussy...or...Stroke a Penis...or...Creep in a Closet...

[Fudge Nuggets 19223]

5 hours ago, sheeeit said:

Not really.  That tweet is pretty misleading.  The are comparing Biden% on 8/10 ish with Clinton% on 11/16.

While I still think Biden will win, I do not think it is a slam dunk as so many here do.  Consider the following that shows poll averages for Trump and Clinton on this date (8/11 ish) in 2016:

Ohio C +2, Final T +8

Florida C+2, Final T +1.2

Penn C +9, Final T +.7

Wisc C +9.4, Final T +.7

Texas C +2, Final T +9

NC C +2. Final T +4

Michigan C +8, Final T +.3

Surely, Biden will not make the same mistakes Hillary did but you just never know in these things.  Lots of time left.  Polls are really fairly meaningless at this point.  Amazing how much they moved though in 2016 in some of these states.  Also still amazing how close it was in the end in Mich, Penn and Wisc.  Interestingly, in the RCP average poll, Trump never closed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin literally until election day.  Clinton was up 6% the last week of polls in both states.  Crazy.

It seems doubtful Trump hits all these again.

Any poll with Clinton +2 in TX back then was bullshit.

[maninblack 7974]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Trrump/Pence 2020: Grab a Pussy...or...Stroke a Penis...or...Creep in a Closet...

All work. 

[Biff Tannen 45734]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

A ha!  What if he announces he's only going to serve one term but pulls a fast one and runs again in 4 years?  Chess VS checkers, my friend.  Chess VS checkers.

 

3 hours ago, Brandywine said:

Ummmmm, so you think more people will vote for him if they know he’ll only be in one term? Or THINK he’ll only be in one term?

[Superhero 8839]

I'm surprised at that TX map. Granted I moved away 15 years ago, but never thought I'd see Williamson County go blue.

[WBT 20666]

7 hours ago, tantric superman said:

Lightening isn't required.  Just a ham fisted plan.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

4 hours ago, Brandywine said:

If he announces he’s a one term President then he’s a lame duck going in. His whole time in office will be about who the next President will be. 

Yeah, it's amazingly stupid to think he'd ever do such a thing. A Republican senate would 100% refuse to confirm any of his judges for the entire four years. They might still do that, but they would absolutely do it if he said he was a one-termer.

It's also a terrible idea for numerous other reasons.

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

12 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

There's actually more we can do.  The Dems need to work with an army of lawyers (I am working on how to be one of them) to have multiple Federal Complaints seeking temporary restraining orders against any number of illegal, suppressive actions in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to the election.  We need to have thousands of lawyers with those Complaints teed up and ready to file with a single button-click.

Yeah, I knew the answer by around 7 or 8 myself.  It was a painful truth that we wanted to deny, but the outcome was right there in front of us.

Oh, and I still think he'll win again.  I think that the turnout of his fanatics will be 95% or more, and I just don't think the turnout on the other side will be able to overcome it, COMBINED with active suppression, denial/destruction/delay of mailed ballots, etc.  It is going to be a comprehensive, naked vote suppression effort, and combined with our shitty electorate, it has a very good chance to work.

You are crazy. How much do you want to bet?  He’s getting bukkake’d. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah, it's amazingly stupid to think he'd ever do such a thing. A Republican senate would 100% refuse to confirm any of his judges for the entire four years. They might still do that, but they would absolutely do it if he said he was a one-termer.

It's also a terrible idea for numerous other reasons.

I think the GOP would suffer at the polls if they stone walled nominations for 2 years straight. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah, it's amazingly stupid to think he'd ever do such a thing. A Republican senate would 100% refuse to confirm any of his judges for the entire four years. They might still do that, but they would absolutely do it if he said he was a one-termer.

It's also a terrible idea for numerous other reasons.

Pretty sure there won’t be a GOP senate after 2020 unless Trump seriously tightens the race. Looking at 2022 I don’t see any real likelihood they the Dems lose seats then and there. 
Y’all likely gonna have 4 years of total control- worst case scenario white noise and Senate for all 4 years and house for at least the first 2. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Pretty sure there won’t be a GOP senate after 2020 unless Trump seriously tightens the race. Looking at 2022 I don’t see any real likelihood they the Dems lose seats then and there. 
Y’all likely gonna have 4 years of total control- worst case scenario white noise and Senate for all 4 years and house for at least the first 2. 

I’m actually optimistic about the house. 
 

especially if we get Trump out, Biden would put a stop to all of Trumps “ trying to rig the census” shenigans and the maps should be pretty fair. Even if trump wins, I think he’ll struggle to rig the maps.

[bolverk 29717]

21 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m actually optimistic about the house. 
 

especially if we get Trump out, Biden would put a stop to all of Trumps “ trying to rig the census” shenigans and the maps should be pretty fair. Even if trump wins, I think he’ll struggle to rig the maps.

They're ending the Census count a month early, so the election shouldn't have a bearing on the eventual results on those who will have been counted. Of course, at this point, it's the door-knockers going around trying to get hard-to-reach populations. In other words, the damage will have already been done no matter who wins, because places with a large share of non-white groups will likely be under-counted even worse than is typical.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5120]

14 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

1) excellent username because of the combination of Roy Williams, No. 4 and Royal Ivey.

2) I was working that night and had the NYT speedometer thing going on my screen.  The needles flipped from 99% Hillary to 80% Trump in seconds and I spent the next few hours in an orderly progression through the stages of grief.  Evidently the polls weren't all that wrong back then, but it was a real failing of the media.  The loudest voices never really got the message out that Trump might actually win, even though everyone points out now in retrospect that it was always a 30% chance or something. 

I, on the other hand, had jumped on a flight to NYC around 6 pm that day so imagine my shock upon flying in and seeing a red Empire State Building. That was not the way I wanted to find out.  NYC was a depressing place to be the couple days I had to be there that time. 

[Irieguy 1059]

7 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen posted. On any forum. Ever. 

[Planet Houston 4930]

20 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Comey breaking protocol by re-opening his investigation against Clinton with about 7 days left and Clinton’s questionable strategy in both which states she visited and which states she invested money in totally did her in.

clinton choked and had just about the worst October from a candidate I’ve ever seen.  It’s highly unlikely that lightning strikes twice as there were also other factors like pissed off bernie bro’s and 8 years of Democrat fatigue which won’t come up this time. 

Also, has anyone done the math on the number of eligible voters that have turned 18 since 2016?  And the number of Trump voters who have died?

I think people are underestimating how politically motivated Gen Z is in this election.  Stating the obvious, but if even a respectable number of these folks cast a ballot, this is a blowout of epic proportions.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Planet Houston

[NameAlreadyInUse 5120]

Problem is we’ve been hearing “not sure we understand how motivated [insert new voter generation here] really is” for decades now without ever actually seeing them show up on voting day. Hope this time is different but it would be foolish to plan on it. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

We need to stop telling younger Americans "you don't vote." It becomes an expectation of failure. That metric applied to many prior elections. But they are energized for this election.  And we do need a campaign that encourages them to vote. They should wear those "I Voted" stickers with pride.

Hook 'em

[washparkhorn 9939]

1 hour ago, Irieguy said:

This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen posted. On any forum. Ever. 

Not even close. No stabbing.

And maybe Biden should announce he will be a caretaker President for a single term. That might be heroic and smooth out the human frailties present in him and all of us. 

Hook 'em.

[Irieguy 1059]

1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

Not even close. No stabbing.

And maybe Biden should announce he will be a caretaker President for a single term. That might be heroic and smooth out the human frailties present in him and all of us. 

Hook 'em.

No. It’s just dumb as dog shit as other posters have explained in detail. No polishing is going to make this turd of an idea acceptable. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Republicans are going to be out of office and power for some time now. People expect Biden to be one-term. This is a preservation presidency when Biden is elected. And he is landing in the middle of a tremendous economic downturn and an out of control pandemic. People want certainty in a time of great uncertainty.

Does anyone really expect Biden to run again in 2024?

[Fletch 5800]

I’ve been placing $100 straight up Biden vs trump bet. Winner takes all with my dotard “friends”. Easy money 

 

edit: this one dude just gave me 8-1 odds. Holy shit. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Fletch

[Bookman 4642]

You bet $100 and get $800 if Biden wins?

Is he taking more action?

[Irieguy 1059]

4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Republicans are going to be out of office and power for some time now. People expect Biden to be one-term. This is a preservation presidency when Biden is elected. And he is landing in the middle of a tremendous economic downturn and an out of control pandemic. People want certainty in a time of great uncertainty.

Does anyone really expect Biden to run again in 2024?

Yes. 

[SydneyCarton 48169]

4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Republicans are going to be out of office and power for some time now. People expect Biden to be one-term. This is a preservation presidency when Biden is elected. And he is landing in the middle of a tremendous economic downturn and an out of control pandemic. People want certainty in a time of great uncertainty.

Does anyone really expect Biden to run again in 2024?

Jesus. For the 100th time, not everyone expects him to run again. But EVERYONE except you two clowns knows it’s a terrible idea to ANNOUNCE you’re not running again. 

[Mo Horn 8854]

7 hours ago, Irieguy said:

This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen posted. On any forum. Ever. 

Well at least I know what I'll put on my tombstone. Quite a legacy to leave for posterity. 

[gmr548 16614]

We need to stop telling younger Americans "you don't vote." It becomes an expectation of failure. That metric applied to many prior elections. But they are energized for this election.  And we do need a campaign that encourages them to vote. They should wear those "I Voted" stickers with pride.

Hook 'em

As a millenial, disagree. Younger voters need to know what their abstaining means. Millenials are now the largest bloc of the population and you are getting newly eligible gen z every day. They could run American politics and there's nothing the whiny ass boomers could do about it, but they don't vote in large enough numbers.

 

[Irieguy 1059]

23 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Well at least I know what I'll put on my tombstone. Quite a legacy to leave for posterity. 

You should announce that you are going to be buried under that tombstone in 2024. You know to reassure people and leave room for your successor.   That’s just as smart as a politician making himself a lame duck. 

[CooterBrown 18028]

2 hours ago, Bookman said:

You bet $100 and get $800 if Biden wins?

Is he taking more action?

Seriously, I'd go drop $10,000 this afternoon. Put your money where your mouth is, dotard.

 

[Mo Horn 8854]

11 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

You should announce that you are going to be buried under that tombstone in 2024. You know to reassure people and leave room for your successor.   That’s just as smart as a politician making himself a lame duck. 

 Great idea. I'll get right on it. 

[Chuckie Finster 22732]

538 finally released their election forecast.  Coincidentally, has the exact same odds for a Biden win (71%) as it did on election day for Hillary.  After all the ignorant flak they received in 2016, they are REALLY trying hard to emphasize that this is not a gimme for Joe.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Herpa Derpa 6131]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

As a millenial, disagree. Younger voters need to know what their abstaining means. Millenials are now the largest bloc of the population and you are getting newly eligible gen z every day. They could run American politics and there's nothing the whiny ass boomers could do about it, but they don't vote in large enough numbers.

 

This. This. This.

Presidential elections are largely meaningless for the average person. Only in a handful of states is the outcome uncertain leading up to election day for any given cycle.  Even then, it's usually known how 98.5%* of the precincts will vote. However, voting for mayor, city council, school board, etc. will directly determine your way of life. And a single vote always matters in elections that small. Counter the apathy of "my blue/red vote doesn't matter in a red/blue state" with the very real fact that it's the downballot races that truly impact our lives.  But good luck with that.

In my time as a youngin', there was a great push to engage the youth vote with the Rock the Vote campaign. Big names all over Mtv and elsewhere, imploring the youth of that day to get out and vote. Stickers, posters, t-shirts were everywhere. The world was going to change with the power of a new generation.  Made not one lick of difference in the final participation tally. There was no great increase in young people voting. It's just the nature of the beast. Unless you're an Alex P. Keaton or Tracie Flick, you don't care about "politics" because in the young person's mind, it's irrelevant.

The futility of the rest of your comment is best expressed by this revision:

Boomers are now the largest bloc of the population and you are getting newly eligible gen x every day.  They could run American politics and there's nothing the warmongering, deficit increasing silent generation could do about it, but they don't vote in large enough numbers.

Hate to break it to you, but there is no "generation" that has the answer and will save the world. That's the sentiment of a greenhorn. Millenials can, and will, be just as deplorable as they move into power positions. I present to you Jared Kushner. And Mark Zuckerberg. And Kim Jong-un. Currently, those are arguably the most powerful Millenials in the world. Not a great start for fixing things.

 

 

*No math was used in this formulation.

[Brisketexan 105329]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are crazy. How much do you want to bet?  He’s getting bukkake’d. 

I would like to, but I can't make a bet that is literally against my own country.  I just can't.

I will note that 538 gives Trump a 30% chance to win.  That was more than enough last time.  He can lose the popular vote by 5 million and still win the EV if he nabs the right states.  A focused campaign, propaganda blitz from foreign actors, and outright election interference/vote suppression/effective elimination of mail-in ballots?  He can win.  Easily.  And you know it's true.

[Red Five 40894]

13 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

538 finally released their election forecast.  Coincidentally, has the exact same odds for a Biden win (71%) as it did on election day for Hillary.  After all the ignorant flak they received in 2016, they are REALLY trying hard to emphasize that this is not a gimme for Joe.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

How much attention should I pay to maps that have Trump winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada? Does a big part of that 29% involve Russia taking over voting machines?

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I would like to, but I can't make a bet that is literally against my own country.  I just can't.

I will note that 538 gives Trump a 30% chance to win.  That was more than enough last time.  He can lose the popular vote by 5 million and still win the EV if he nabs the right states.  A focused campaign, propaganda blitz from foreign actors, and outright election interference/vote suppression/effective elimination of mail-in ballots?  He can win.  Easily.  And you know it's true.

No. He’s not winning. Period. It’s just like the Ray Moore election you were wrong about. You want to see the absolute worst in the collective of your fellow citizens and go out of your way to ignore anything that’s not that. Truly, we’ve had one terrible election result (trump) in my lifetime and elected two pieces of shit on a personal level (in my lifetime of 42 years) one of which also happened to be the most gifted politician the left has had since Kennedy, with a fawning media to help make that happen (Clinton) with all available evidence suggesting that we are fixing to throw out the real bad mistake in something between a total and complete, abject electoral slaughter, and a run of the mill, ho hum blowout. That’s what every single shred of facts points toward. 
Those are the facts. If you want to entertain some fever dream nightmare of the whole system burning down because, well, reasons, that’s fine for you, but it doesn’t mean I’m not going to point and laugh and then being this up, over and over and over again, when you do your chicken little routine. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

How much attention should I pay to maps that have Trump winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada? Does a big part of that 29% involve Russia taking over voting machines?

Absolutely zero. 

[bolverk 29717]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I would like to, but I can't make a bet that is literally against my own country.  I just can't.

I will note that 538 gives Trump a 30% chance to win.  That was more than enough last time.  He can lose the popular vote by 5 million and still win the EV if he nabs the right states.  A focused campaign, propaganda blitz from foreign actors, and outright election interference/vote suppression/effective elimination of mail-in ballots?  He can win.  Easily.  And you know it's true.

I screwed up and posted an explanation of the 538 prediction in the generic Trump thread when it should have gone in this one.

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are crazy. How much do you want to bet?  He’s getting bukkake’d. 

I thought you were checking out on politics since your vote didn't count

[WBT 20666]

Fivethirtyeight says if the polls stay where they are today (or in other words if the election were today) that it would be 93/7 in favor of Biden.  The shift to 71/29 is based on the amount of time left for things to change.  93/7 sounds about right if not still a little low.  And of course there is uncertainty with 3 months until election day but I have a hard time imagining anything that would significantly shift things toward Trump.

[Hiphopopotamos 20888]

Short thread from the Economist election forecaster G. Elliot Morris trying to explain possible difference between their forecast and 538's.

 

[Brisketexan 105329]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. He’s not winning. Period. It’s just like the Ray Moore election you were wrong about. You want to see the absolute worst in the collective of your fellow citizens and go out of your way to ignore anything that’s not that. Truly, we’ve had one terrible election result (trump) in my lifetime and elected two pieces of shit on a personal level (in my lifetime of 42 years) one of which also happened to be the most gifted politician the left has had since Kennedy, with a fawning media to help make that happen (Clinton) with all available evidence suggesting that we are fixing to throw out the real bad mistake in something between a total and complete, abject electoral slaughter, and a run of the mill, ho hum blowout. That’s what every single shred of facts points toward. 
Those are the facts. If you want to entertain some fever dream nightmare of the whole system burning down because, well, reasons, that’s fine for you, but it doesn’t mean I’m not going to point and laugh and then being this up, over and over and over again, when you do your chicken little routine. 

I love that you keep going back to how "wrong" I was about that race.  Jones won by, literally, a handful of votes -- 1.3 million votes case, and fewer than 22,000 was the margin.  49.97% to 48.34%.  A few votes flip, and he wins.

Which is my point.  A few votes in the right states, and Trump wins.  It's that clear a path to victory.

I don't have to "WANT" to believe the worst about the American people.  Shit, 48.34% of the voters in Alabama voted for a racist, psychotic, piece of shit pedophile.  The American people have demonstrated, repeatedly, that we SHOULD believe the worst about them.  Layer on a completely corrupt admin -- beyond anything seen in the modern era -- and a win is very, very easy to see.

[lemonlime 5503]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. He’s not winning. Period. It’s just like the Ray Moore election you were wrong about. You want to see the absolute worst in the collective of your fellow citizens and go out of your way to ignore anything that’s not that. Truly, we’ve had one terrible election result (trump) in my lifetime and elected two pieces of shit on a personal level (in my lifetime of 42 years) one of which also happened to be the most gifted politician the left has had since Kennedy, with a fawning media to help make that happen (Clinton) with all available evidence suggesting that we are fixing to throw out the real bad mistake in something between a total and complete, abject electoral slaughter, and a run of the mill, ho hum blowout. That’s what every single shred of facts points toward. 
Those are the facts. If you want to entertain some fever dream nightmare of the whole system burning down because, well, reasons, that’s fine for you, but it doesn’t mean I’m not going to point and laugh and then being this up, over and over and over again, when you do your chicken little routine. 

It must be nice to be so confident in your predictions, while you're tooling around the country, and not even voting.  Meanwhile, during the trump era, I now need armed security to go to my house of worship.  Except, oh, I haven't been there in six months because we still have an out of control pandemic.

1 minute ago, WBT said:

Fivethirtyeight says if the polls stay where they are today (or in other words if the election were today) that it would be 93/7 in favor of Biden.  The shift to 71/29 is based on the amount of time left for things to change.  93/7 sounds about right if not still a little low.  And of course there is uncertainty with 3 months until election day but I have a hard time imagining anything that would significantly shift things toward Trump.

Trump's already dismantling the entire postal service in an attempt to steal the election.  We lack the imagination, but the GOP will find a way.  (and to be clear, I think trump is a moron who also has dementia--his enablers will find a way)

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

12 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Does a big part of that 29% involve Russia taking over voting machines?

Basically, yes.  The disclaimer Silver is giving sounds like Some impending apocalypse factors heavy.  We will be able to tell if that 29% grows smaller every day we get closer to the election and nothing weird has happened. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

5 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I thought you were checking out on politics since your vote didn't count

Boy, the reading comprehension on this site is just totally and completely terrible. Like just about everything else in this world that I can’t control I have an opinion, sometimes even voice it, and then go on with life. 

[wildcat09 29384]

Wulaw, do you think if Biden is projected the winner early that Trump will concede on election night?

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I love that you keep going back to how "wrong" I was about that race.  Jones won by, literally, a handful of votes -- 1.3 million votes case, and fewer than 22,000 was the margin.  49.97% to 48.34%.  A few votes flip, and he wins.

Which is my point.  A few votes in the right states, and Trump wins.  It's that clear a path to victory.

I don't have to "WANT" to believe the worst about the American people.  Shit, 48.34% of the voters in Alabama voted for a racist, psychotic, piece of shit pedophile.  The American people have demonstrated, repeatedly, that we SHOULD believe the worst about them.  Layer on a completely corrupt admin -- beyond anything seen in the modern era -- and a win is very, very easy to see.

He normally would have won 65-35. So what that means is something like 50% of the people who are his voters changed their mind and said, nope, not going to do it.  
those Obama trump voters in the Midwest that won trump the election in 2016?  Yeah- they are all gone. Those security mom voters in the suburbs that gave W a majority?  They are all gone.  Those regan Democrats that gave Reagan a landslide?  TheY are all dead. 
Texas is a toss up right now (Trump will win here I bet, but maybe not). Wisconsin is outside the margin. AZ is outside the margin. North Carolina has an 8 point senate race for goodness sakes. This thing doesn’t hang on a knifes edge able to teeter either way. 
It’s a blow out. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Wulaw, do you think if Biden is projected the winner early that Trump will concede on election night?

Probably not. He will probably wait to see every single result come in, and with mail ballots being such a thing in this election probably say something incredibly stupid about- muh people, we are going to win the mail in vote bigly, this thing isn’t over. Mans he will then do the most tactless, charmless scumbag thing when all the votes are counted and look to burn the thing down on the way out the door. And might even file some absurdly frivolous lawsuits because he is, wait for it, a total and complete piece of shot that’s deluded and lives in his own reality. But the idea that he’s going to stage a coup or have to be frog marched out of there is not going to happen