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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19317

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:56 PM, jimmyjazz said:

The problem is that all 12B units of mail per month are being delayed.  It's a throughput issue.

I don't know when the postmark is affixed, but that should be the arbiter of whether or not a ballot was mailed in time.  Delivery to the counting location is irrelevant.  (It's not, as others have surmised, Trump will use his own braking action on the USPS to argue that fraud is occurring, but in a normal world, ballot arrival would mean nothing.)

Yeah- I had thought it was postmark date which would be logical and make sense everywhere. That’s by far the minority way of doing it, apparently, and most places require by election day or within a set number of days, which I would imagine most people don’t know. 
If I cared about my vote I’d do it in person, but I’ve never trusted anything I’ve ever cared about to the USPS always opting for fed ex or personal delivery if it was actually important. 
It seems like the really easy answer to this is a quasi vote by mail system where you get the ballot and then drop it at your poll/precinct/location or some central sorting clearinghouse for those who are really concerned about it. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19317

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41 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I think this results in Trump squeaking out Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and still losing by a decent margin. 

Yep. Which was always my prediction. That’s a  350-is to 200 ish electoral win for Biden. Probably 6-8 points. Map looks like Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27615

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The lockdown order has meant that the nerve center of the campaign in which anxious Democrats are investing their hopes is now located on the third floor of O’Malley Dillon’s suburban Maryland home, where she is also raising twin 7-year-old daughters and a 2-year-old son. Her second-graders have taken to joking that their mother is “the ghost in the attic.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-jennifer-omalley-dillon-transformed-joe-bidens-campaign/2020/08/14/d49de192-dbdd-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html?fbclid=IwAR1X4tMgR57eDVJb1M8BRkq4XqYYh-4MchP30suEdJAxL4-70Rkq0ERBmE8

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105691

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Posted
 

Anecdotally, I don’t think it’s just noise.  I’m observing a lot of supposedly disaffected Republican suburbanites going back to Trump through a combination of not being able to pull the trigger on voting Democrat as Election Day nears and it’s less hypothetical, and also the pandemic becoming old news / more normalized in their minds, but not deadly enough to kill so many people that everyone is personally touched by it.  
They’re back to bitching about the old hits again (socialism, Democrats will kill the energy industry, open borders, etc.) and not receptive to Trump criticism anymore.  I still think Trump loses, but he’s going to get more people digging in for him than I had hoped.

Yep.
Trump isn’t going to lose any voters, when it comes to nut-cutting time. AND, voter suppression of opposition voters will work.
This one was never going to be anything better than a tossup. The future of the Republic rests on a coin flip...and I don’t even know if our odds are that good.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Yep.
Trump isn’t going to lose any voters, when it comes to nut-cutting time. AND, voter suppression of opposition voters will work.
This one was never going to be anything better than a tossup. The future of the Republic rests on a coin flip...and I don’t even know if our odds are that good.

 

Chill out with the pessimism.

trump is not winning any Clinton states.  Biden already has like 230 electoral votes in the bag.  He’s just gotta do well in the rust belt, or Florida / Arizona.

Trumps coalition hasn’t grown any since 2016. If anything, it has probably shrunk some with old people dying off.

 

Edited by Voldemort86
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105691

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Chill out with the pessimism.
trump is not winning any Clinton states.  Biden already has like 230 electoral votes in the bag.  He’s just gotta do well in the rust belt, or Florida / Arizona.
Trumps coalition hasn’t grown any since 2016. If anything, it has probably shrunk some with old people dying off.
 

All he has to do is cheat to win the battlegrounds.

He will, and it will work, because he has the entire GOP, including the Senate, assisting him.
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26690

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Anecdotally, I don’t think it’s just noise.  I’m observing a lot of supposedly disaffected Republican suburbanites going back to Trump through a combination of not being able to pull the trigger on voting Democrat as Election Day nears and it’s less hypothetical, and also the pandemic becoming old news / more normalized in their minds, but not deadly enough to kill so many people that everyone is personally touched by it.  

They’re back to bitching about the old hits again (socialism, Democrats will kill the energy industry, open borders, etc.) and not receptive to Trump criticism anymore.  I still think Trump loses, but he’s going to get more people digging in for him than I had hoped.

That’s a good read on Republicans-  a few have  stopped being Republicans. The rest hold their nose and come home.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9969

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Yep.
Trump isn’t going to lose any voters, when it comes to nut-cutting time. AND, voter suppression of opposition voters will work.
This one was never going to be anything better than a tossup. The future of the Republic rests on a coin flip...and I don’t even know if our odds are that good.

 

I kinda agree.  I think a lot of college educated men in places like AZ, NC, TX, and GA will eventually come home to the GOP, even if they despise trump.  I think there is a substantial well of college educated women who voted for Trump the first time because of Hilary that will not return.  I *think* that will be the difference, but I agree it will be close.  
 

OTOH, I think a lot of voters are also looking for change down ballot and that’s not helping the GOP.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5307

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3 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Anecdotally, I don’t think it’s just noise.  

Disagree, there's just a lot of crazy results in that poll that are hard to believe.

Trump approval is at 42% but vote share went up from 41% to 46%. First poll I've seen in ages where he significantly outperforms his approval rating. When he was at 43% back in May he was only pulling 41%. Meanwhile, Biden's net favorability stayed the exact same but his vote share dropped 5%. 

 Trump went from +2 among men in June to +16 now. 

Biden's margin with non-white voters dropped 10 points. He lost 21 points in the 35-49 age bracket and 9 points in the 18-34 bracket.

Trump now gets 10% of the liberal vote vs 4% back in June

Several other major polls today average Biden +9 and showed about 1-2 points of movement since their previous results. CNN's last 3 polls have accumulated 25 points of movement (+11-->+5-->+14-->+4). That's just not normal. 

 

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5419

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6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Disagree, there's just a lot of crazy results in that poll that are hard to believe.

Trump approval is at 42% but vote share went up from 41% to 46%. First poll I've seen in ages where he significantly outperforms his approval rating. When he was at 43% back in May he was only pulling 41%. Meanwhile, Biden's net favorability stayed the exact same but his vote share dropped 5%. 

 Trump went from +2 among men in June to +16 now. 

Biden's margin with non-white voters dropped 10 points. He lost 21 points in the 35-49 age bracket and 9 points in the 18-34 bracket.

Trump now gets 10% of the liberal vote vs 4% back in June

Several other major polls today average Biden +9 and showed about 1-2 points of movement since their previous results. CNN's last 3 polls have accumulated 25 points of movement (+11-->+5-->+14-->+4). That's just not normal. 

 

 

Yea, the huge swings don't have any significant events that you can point too. All of the other reputable polls are showing the same 9-13 range for Biden. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13568

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4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I kinda agree.  I think a lot of college educated men in places like AZ, NC, TX, and GA will eventually come home to the GOP, even if they despise trump.  I think there is a substantial well of college educated women who voted for Trump the first time because of Hilary that will not return.  I *think* that will be the difference, but I agree it will be close.  
 

OTOH, I think a lot of voters are also looking for change down ballot and that’s not helping the GOP.

I agree with this. Admittedly I haven’t been around many friends lately but most GOP suburban men that I know definitely have problems with trump but a lot of their problems are that trump talks/tweets too much. His policies are either unknown to them or they agree with them. Regardless it doesn’t take much to pull those men back to trump, if they even left in the first place.

trump is looking to scare everyone that Kamala is left of Lenin and that Biden will be too frail to stop her. That will be enough for some to come back to trump.

still trump loses easily. He loses on the basic question are you better off now than in 2016. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48498

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5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Disagree, there's just a lot of crazy results in that poll that are hard to believe.

Trump approval is at 42% but vote share went up from 41% to 46%. First poll I've seen in ages where he significantly outperforms his approval rating. When he was at 43% back in May he was only pulling 41%. Meanwhile, Biden's net favorability stayed the exact same but his vote share dropped 5%. 

 Trump went from +2 among men in June to +16 now. 

Biden's margin with non-white voters dropped 10 points. He lost 21 points in the 35-49 age bracket and 9 points in the 18-34 bracket.

Trump now gets 10% of the liberal vote vs 4% back in June

Several other major polls today average Biden +9 and showed about 1-2 points of movement since their previous results. CNN's last 3 polls have accumulated 25 points of movement (+11-->+5-->+14-->+4). That's just not normal. 

 

Clearly the new poll took into account USPS defunding and voter suppression. 
 

/ducks

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45785

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree with this. Admittedly I haven’t been around many friends lately but most GOP suburban men that I know definitely have problems with trump but a lot of their problems are that trump talks/tweets too much. His policies are either unknown to them or they agree with them. Regardless it doesn’t take much to pull those men back to trump, if they even left in the first place.

trump is looking to scare everyone that Kamala is left of Lenin and that Biden will be too frail to stop her. That will be enough for some to come back to trump.

still trump loses easily. He loses on the basic question are you better off now than in 2016. 

My bro-in-law is a prime example.  Smart, owns his own engineering firm, but says he can't hire anyone right now because they are making too much off unemployment and just want to be lazy.  He will pull the lever for dotard because he will fall for the Dems are left of Lenin and want to turn us all into a hippie commune.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17828

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

My bro-in-law is a prime example.  Smart, owns his own engineering firm, but says he can't hire anyone right now because they are making too much off unemployment and just want to be lazy.  He will pull the lever for dotard because he will fall for the Dems are left of Lenin and want to turn us all into a hippie commune.

You've just proved he isn't smart. Educated, maybe. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46518

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59 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

My bro-in-law is a prime example.  Smart, owns his own engineering firm, but says he can't hire anyone right now because they are making too much off unemployment and just want to be lazy.  

This smells wrong.  For one thing, he must be talking about hiring surveyors and draftsmen, because no degreed engineer would rather take shitty unemployment pay over an actual salary.  Beyond that, although rules vary state by state, in general when one is on unemployment, they are required to search for employment and document all inquiries and any offers.  As time marches on, the flexibility for turning down imperfect job offers fades.

It's one thing for a bartender to "look" for a job that doesn't exist.  It's another thing entirely for someone to not accept offers and continue to draw unemployment checks.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45785

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43 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

This smells wrong.  For one thing, he must be talking about hiring surveyors and draftsmen, because no degreed engineer would rather take shitty unemployment pay over an actual salary.  Beyond that, although rules vary state by state, in general when one is on unemployment, they are required to search for employment and document all inquiries and any offers.  As time marches on, the flexibility for turning down imperfect job offers fades.

It's one thing for a bartender to "look" for a job that doesn't exist.  It's another thing entirely for someone to not accept offers and continue to draw unemployment checks.  

 

39 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well of course it's wrong. His BIL is completely full of shit. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

My bro-in-law is a prime example.  Smart, owns his own engineering firm, but says he can't hire anyone right now because they are making too much off unemployment and just want to be lazy.  He will pull the lever for dotard because he will fall for the Dems are left of Lenin and want to turn us all into a hippie commune.

The trump administration is a bunch of arrogant pricks.

they can’t look in the mirror and realize that the vast majority of people who are unemployed or furloughed are only that way because of them. Then they have the audacity to call all of them “lazy” and they just want to “sit at home and collect checks”. Last time I looked, this pandemic isn’t really getting any better folks. Those people should be taken care of until this thing subsides, it’s not their fault. If anything, it’s the trump administrations fault for mismanaging this whole thing.

These people are not working and finding jobs because there aren’t jobs out there right now. The vast majority of employers have to temporarily cut back until this pandemic is over and people can safely go places again.

anyone who votes republican this year is clueless and lacks the awareness to correctly see whose really responsible for the mess we are all in.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

That's more in line with what I thought was reality. Still, if you look at that number in context, the trend is not going in the GOP's favor. 

Trump isn’t really popular in Texas. He won Texas by 9 last time. I’m expecting him to win Texas by 4 or 5 this time, I hope we can get it down as much as possible tho.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Red Five

Red Five 41113

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

His inability to separate cause and effect is one of his most infuriating characteristics.  CNN didn't "increase" the results -- it's a measurement, not a storyline.

Being truthful is beyond him. Why take the time to do the legwork and research when you can just say whatever you want the numbers to be? 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46518

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4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Being truthful is beyond him. Why take the time to do the legwork and research when you can just say whatever you want the numbers to be? 

The irony is that he could leg a single into a double by saying "even CNN's polls show that I've been right all along", but no, he has to couch it in some false narrative.  (Not that his base cares.)

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gmr548

gmr548 16645

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Anecdotally, I don’t think it’s just noise.  I’m observing a lot of supposedly disaffected Republican suburbanites going back to Trump


This was always going to happen. Steel your resolve, though. There aren't enough of them if everyone does their part.
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