2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[BradInATX 9,208]

6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Go to 270towin.com.  

Select the “2020 consensus” map.

Toggle all the toss ups light red.

Turn Wisconsin to a toss up.  That’s Trumps strategy and a very realistic outcome.
 

Fuck me.  I cannot believe this thing is still in question, but it most definitely is.

 

Yep. I think PA and MI are fairly solid Biden at this point. But WI is in play for sure. The bad news is that all of those swingy states they have labeled as tossups (OH, FL, NC, GA) are likely to go for the same candidate, whoever that is. They moved together last election and their polling seems to move together this time.

The good news is that Arizona seems to move independently of those. So in my very likely scenario, the Dems have two outs. WI and AZ, which have completely different demographics and aren't joined at the hip. Two distinct, separate chances, and they just need one of the two.

Purely opinion here but I think AZ is more likely to swing the election than OH/FL/GA/NC. If any of those states go blue, AZ already will have. And it could be our saving grace and firewall against the very possible Trump win in Wisconsin.

Edited August 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[Voldemort86 2,259]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yep. I think PA and MI are fairly solid Biden at this point. But WI is in play for sure. The bad news is that all of those swingy states they have labeled as tossups (OH, FL, NC, GA) are likely to go for the same candidate, whoever that is. They moved together last election and their polling seems to move together this time.

The good news is that Arizona seems to move independently of those. So in my very likely scenario, the Dems have two outs. WI and AZ, which have completely different demographics and aren't joined at the hip. Two distinct, separate chances, and they just need one of the two.

Purely opinion here but I think AZ is more likely to swing the election than OH/FL/GA/NC. If any of those states go blue, AZ already will have. And it could be our saving grace and firewall against the very possible Trump win in Wisconsin.

I might be in the minority here, but I still think Florida is looking good for Biden. Heck..... Hilary didn’t do too bad in Florida and look at how awful of a candidate she was.

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

Biden has a bigger lead in FL than in WI, although FL has been fools gold as of late.

Win AZ and WI doesn’t matter.

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I might be in the minority here, but I still think Florida is looking good for Biden. Heck..... Hilary didn’t do too bad in Florida and look at how awful of a candidate she was.

 

You are probably right. I think I have Battered Wife Syndrome when it comes to Florida. I'll never trust them not to hurt me. 

[Biff Tannen 45,665]

If Wisconsin goes Dotard again, they should forever be put in the same category as Alabama, Mississippi, and the rest of the shit south. 

[Red Five 40,836]

31 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Go to 270towin.com.  

Select the “2020 consensus” map.

Toggle all the toss ups light red.

Turn Wisconsin to a toss up.  That’s Trumps strategy and a very realistic outcome.
 

Fuck me.  I cannot believe this thing is still in question, but it most definitely is.

Well yeah if you give Trump a bunch of states he's currently getting crushed in. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

You are probably right. I think I have Battered Wife Syndrome when it comes to Florida. I'll never trust them not to hurt me. 

Normally, I’d agree and be skeptical but the federal government has given people many reasons to not vote gop this year ( as they’re in charge). Mishandling the pandemic, unemployment not being extended, and Florida has the worst unemployment system in the country. People are probably hurting and who is the easiest to blame?
 

the people in charge. Republicans.

[heso 2,785]

21 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yep. I think PA and MI are fairly solid Biden at this point. But WI is in play for sure. The bad news is that all of those swingy states they have labeled as tossups (OH, FL, NC, GA) are likely to go for the same candidate, whoever that is. They moved together last election and their polling seems to move together this time.

The good news is that Arizona seems to move independently of those. So in my very likely scenario, the Dems have two outs. WI and AZ, which have completely different demographics and aren't joined at the hip. Two distinct, separate chances, and they just need one of the two.

Purely opinion here but I think AZ is more likely to swing the election than OH/FL/GA/NC. If any of those states go blue, AZ already will have. And it could be our saving grace and firewall against the very possible Trump win in Wisconsin.

I will believe Trump loses PA when I see it. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

 

[BrickHorn 18,216]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

I tend to believe that’s more about 3.5 years of Trump actually doing all the awful shit that was just theoretical in August 2016. Normalcy bias caused people not to acknowledge the threat Trump posed at that time. It was frustrating as hell back then. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,435]

consider it done!

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

consider it done!

I’d like to remind Mr. Jordan that a citizen’s vote is private, kinda like a wrestler’s shower should be so he should just shut up.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

11 minutes ago, heso said:

I will believe Trump loses PA when I see it. 

Manafort and the Russians had to steal it for him with the worst dem candidate possible and Trump as a relative outsider/unknown.

He will lose Pennsylvania. Especially against Biden. It will look relatively close because it’s a divided rural/city state like Nevada but Trump will not win it.

Michigan will be a Democratic rout.

Wisconsin might be close, but only because its easier to steal. Trump losing Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and probably Florida will easily cancel that out if it does. 

I also think Trump loses Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas. But those are not definitive that’s for sure.  They are the true toss ups. 

The media will keep the horse race going though for the next couple months. They need the ratings. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,792]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yep. I think PA and MI are fairly solid Biden at this point. But WI is in play for sure. The bad news is that all of those swingy states they have labeled as tossups (OH, FL, NC, GA) are likely to go for the same candidate, whoever that is. They moved together last election and their polling seems to move together this time.

The good news is that Arizona seems to move independently of those. So in my very likely scenario, the Dems have two outs. WI and AZ, which have completely different demographics and aren't joined at the hip. Two distinct, separate chances, and they just need one of the two.

Purely opinion here but I think AZ is more likely to swing the election than OH/FL/GA/NC. If any of those states go blue, AZ already will have. And it could be our saving grace and firewall against the very possible Trump win in Wisconsin.

Agreed with Arizona, but North Carolina is a blue state this election. It's fucking Virginia south. The research Triangle *has* to be about 70-30 Dem at this point. Fuck their gerrymandering bullshit

 

49 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Wisconsin goes Dotard again, they should forever be put in the same category as Alabama, Mississippi, and the rest of the shit south. 

Don't tell Wisconsin, but regardless of how they vote this election, there's really no path forward for them when we reform the union into closely aligned separate countries. They only have a red path. Basically the only Midwest entity that has a chance is Chicago, minus the rest of Illinois. Let me know if you are interested in how we are going to divide the states into new countries. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

Higher education is rapidly becoming a crap shoot as it spreads into communities; it has an effect outside of the campuses because of the peripheral industries that support higher ed as well as K-12. That may come into play in Wisconsin which has a robust university system of satellite campuses. The economic fallout is going to be pretty sad. 

[gmr548 16,576]

I will believe Trump loses PA when I see it. 

PA is really hard to square. On the one hand, of the three critical rust belt states, it's the only one Trump actually really outperformed Romney and won as opposed to Clinton underperforming. There was definitely a MAGA white working class uprising there. It's really the only true example.

On the other hand, that's Biden's home turf. He is going to do well in the Philadelphia suburbs and the outlying cities of southern/eastern PA. Better than Hillary anyway. That alone is probably enoughb to flip it, then you consider higher Democratic enthusiasm. Biden's polling lead usually ranges from solid to ass kicking.

Weird state.

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

consider it done!

I'm all for it.  Let's assume everyone who protested must vote in person, and all the other registered voters can vote by mail.  It's a deal, Gym!

[gmr548 16,576]

I'm with @Doc Sam Beckett on NC. Popular Democratic governor walking away with it. Unpopular GOP incumbent senator underwater. Democratic control of supreme court and board of elections. Large black electorate. Large highly educated professional electorate.

I'm bullish on NC for Democrats. Biden's running behind Cooper and Cunningham right now but I like his odds of getting over the line. Trump has narrowed the gap in recent polling so if that lasts maybe I'll back off, but right now I think it's 3/3.

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

PA is really hard to square. On the one hand, of the three critical rust belt states, it's the only one Trump actually really outperformed Romney and won as opposed to Clinton underperforming. There was definitely a MAGA white working class uprising there. It's really the only true example.

On the other hand, that's Biden's home turf. He is going to do well in the Philadelphia suburbs and the outlying cities of southern/eastern PA. Better than Hillary anyway. That alone is probably enoughb to flip it, then you consider higher Democratic enthusiasm. Biden's polling lead usually ranges from solid to ass kicking.

Weird state.

Philly burbs have gone Democratic.  (Delaware County.)  If that happens and Philly turns out, PA is in the bag.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

This got in my feelings.

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

This got in my feelings.

 

F'n A, Bruce.  Nobody writes an anthem like he does.  

This needs to be half of Biden's message -- "we will fix it".  The other half needs to be "Trump fucked it up".  He must attack but offer hope.

Edited August 18, 2020 by jimmyjazz

[Buck Strickland 380]

This smells wrong.  For one thing, he must be talking about hiring surveyors and draftsmen, because no degreed engineer would rather take shitty unemployment pay over an actual salary.  Beyond that, although rules vary state by state, in general when one is on unemployment, they are required to search for employment and document all inquiries and any offers.  As time marches on, the flexibility for turning down imperfect job offers fades.

It's one thing for a bartender to "look" for a job that doesn't exist.  It's another thing entirely for someone to not accept offers and continue to draw unemployment checks.  

Well actually, registered surveyors make considerably more than engineers here in Texas. Atleast the good ones do.

 

 

 

[Hefeweizen 5,310]

6 hours ago, Buck Strickland said:

Well actually, registered surveyors make considerably more than engineers here in Texas. Atleast the good ones do.

 

 

 

Wat.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,188]

On 8/16/2020 at 11:44 PM, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Yea, the huge swings don't have any significant events that you can point too.

Well, Biden did have the audacity to pick a colored lady as his running mate.  That's pretty significant to the racist portion of the populace.

[gmr548 16,576]

Philly burbs have gone Democratic.  (Delaware County.)  If that happens and Philly turns out, PA is in the bag.

They went for Clinton and Philly didn't have the turnout drop Detroit and Milwaukee did. Running up the score there with higher turnout or bigger suburban margins could get the job done but he'll also need to to better in the Scrantons, Readings, Lancasters, etc. Preferably both so that there's breathing room.

[Pancho 44,703]

Biden leading in Wisconsin 49-43.

Quote

• Biden leads Trump 49% to 43% among likely voters in Wisconsin.

• Trump has a 12-point advantage in the Badger State among white voters without a college degree, while Biden leads with the state’s college-educated voters by 23 points.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/17/wisconsin-dnc-biden-trump-polling/

[Biff Tannen 45,665]

11 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Let me know if you are interested in how we are going to divide the states into new countries. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,395]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Well, Biden did have the audacity to pick a colored lady as his running mate.  That's pretty significant to the racist portion of the populace.

The CNN poll had another big swing in June before the black lady. 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

43 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Biden leading in Wisconsin 49-43.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/17/wisconsin-dnc-biden-trump-polling/

What’s insane to me is that despite having a 61-26 lead with moderates, he only leads all likely voters by 6.  People have just been pushed to the fringes like never before.

[Buck Strickland 380]

Wat.

Not to derail thread but yes its true. It is a good time to be a surveyor in Texas due to the fact there are more dying than becoming registered each year creating a shortage.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gatorubet 30,185]

Biden leading in Wisconsin 49-43.

• Biden leads Trump 49% to 43% among likely voters in Wisconsin.

• Trump has a 12-point advantage in the Badger State among white voters without a college degree, while Biden leads with the state’s college-educated voters by 23 points.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/17/wisconsin-dnc-biden-trump-polling/

15% undecided Independents is some scary shit.

[Gatorubet 30,185]

Biden leading in Wisconsin 49-43.

• Biden leads Trump 49% to 43% among likely voters in Wisconsin.

• Trump has a 12-point advantage in the Badger State among white voters without a college degree, while Biden leads with the state’s college-educated voters by 23 points.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/17/wisconsin-dnc-biden-trump-polling/

15% undecided Independents is some scary shit.

[SydneyCarton 48,054]

11 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/17/wisconsin-dnc-biden-trump-polling/

15% undecided Independents is some scary shit.

Anyone who is saying Undecided is a Trump voter ashamed to say it on the phone. So it's even scarier than you think. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[Tuco 5,076]

12 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Manafort and the Russians had to steal it for him with the worst dem candidate possible and Trump as a relative outsider/unknown.

He will lose Pennsylvania. Especially against Biden. It will look relatively close because it’s a divided rural/city state like Nevada but Trump will not win it.

Michigan will be a Democratic rout.

Wisconsin might be close, but only because its easier to steal. Trump losing Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and probably Florida will easily cancel that out if it does. 

I also think Trump loses Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas. But those are not definitive that’s for sure.  They are the true toss ups. 

The media will keep the horse race going though for the next couple months. They need the ratings. 

If Trump loses NE-2, which I feel fairly confident he will, it would bring the total back to 269 to 269, with the House deciding the Presidency.  Biden wouldn't need Arizona, NC, or Florida (Nevada is already in Biden's column on the count.) 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Tuco

[Red Five 40,836]

Imagine being undecided in August of 2020. "Yeah I don't know. Gonna have to see more before I can decide."

[Pig Bellmont 8,712]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

If Trump loses NE-2, which I feel fairly confident he will, it would bring the total back to 269 to 269, with the House deciding the Presidency.  Biden wouldn't need Arizona, NC, or Florida (Nevada is already in Biden's column on the count.) 

 

This would be a nightmare scenario. Each State’s delegation in the House gets 1 vote in an electoral college tie.  

[Guest Lobo]

well, if you are undecided...you're really not gonna like the flareup coming in about 4 weeks.  It's gonna be insane.  Luckily, for Trump, October should be a nice curve back downwards for the Pandemic.  

But yeah, that UAE deal is really gonna title the undecideds.  I know they were really sweating whether or not the Dubai all-inclusive resorts could finally cut a deal with Tel Aviv.  

[Pig Bellmont 8,712]

4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Imagine being undecided in August of 2020. "Yeah I don't know. Gonna have to see more before I can decide."

I think this is why the push on the left is to register new voters and engage those who sat out last time. Fuck “undecided”. 

[Tuco 5,076]

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This would be a nightmare scenario. Each State’s delegation in the House gets 1 vote in an electoral college tie.  

Fuck.  I did not know that.  

[Guest Lobo]

And there are more states with Republican House delegations than there are with Democrat House delegations.  Trump would win in that scenario, comfortably.  

The real worry is not a tie, that is so statistically far fetched.  Nevermind a Pence tie-breaker.  But that a few key states would be too close to call, fraud would be claimed, and their EC voters would just not be seated by the December deadline.  Then the House vote comes into play, and of course-----it swings to Trump.  

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lobo

[Pancho 44,703]

Someone in this thread didn't watch VEEP

[gmr548 16,576]

What’s insane to me is that despite having a 61-26 lead with moderates, he only leads all likely voters by 6.  People have just been pushed to the fringes like never before.

If there were a perfectly symmetrical split of one third each liberal, moderate, and conservative the gap would only be 52.6 to 40.3 with those results, so only about 3.5 points wider. I wouldn't say that's evidence people have moved to the fringes in some extreme way.

It shows you the existing skew is rightward, not to both fringes, as Biden does better with liberals than Trump does with conservatives, yet Trump still outperforms that theoretical split above.

[gmr548 16,576]

Imagine being undecided in August of 2020. "Yeah I don't know. Gonna have to see more before I can decide."

What I really can't imagine is being one of the four percent that voted Clinton in 16, but watched the past four years and said "Damn I fucked up, I'm on the Trump train now!"

[SilasCoade 2,622]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If there were a perfectly symmetrical split of one third each liberal, moderate, and conservative the gap would only be 52.6 to 40.3 with those results, so only about 3.5 points wider. I wouldn't say that's evidence people have moved to the fringes in some extreme way.

It shows you the existing skew is rightward, not to both fringes, as Biden does better with liberals than Trump does with conservatives, yet Trump still outperforms that theoretical split above.

That's why that graphic sucks. If you only show the % but not the N value for each subgroup it's sort of worthless.

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Anyone who is saying Undecided is a Trump voter ashamed to say it on the phone. So it's even scarier than you think. 

This is probably a good assumption. 

[gmr548 16,576]

That's why that graphic sucks. If you only show the % but not the N value for each subgroup it's sort of worthless.

Yep. The only thing it tells you is that there were more self identified conservatives in the poll.

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

2 hours ago, Buck Strickland said:

Not to derail thread but yes its true. It is a good time to be a surveyor in Texas due to the fact there are more dying than becoming registered each year creating a shortage.

So what is the upper end of surveyor salaries?  Google seems to indicate $90K, which most engineers top not very long out of school.

This is very important information.  The thread depends on it.

[G650 14,233]

3 hours ago, Buck Strickland said:

Not to derail thread but yes its true. It is a good time to be a surveyor in Texas due to the fact there are more dying than becoming registered each year creating a shortage.

 

 

 

 

 

Surveyors make like 22 bucks an hour in Virginia. That's insane.

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Anyone who is saying Undecided is a Trump voter ashamed to say it on the phone. So it's even scarier than you think. 

This is the assumption I have been operating under the entire time and will be until November. I need to see Biden around 52-53% in national polling averages before I'm comfortable (he's around 50% right now). Hillary got 48% and lost, and I think we're going to see fewer third party votes. Biden is going to need to win it by 4-5% nationally to be safe in winning the EC. That means 52-53%. And when I see polls like Biden 50%, Trump 43%, I'm assuming almost the entire 7% undecided are pussies who don't want to admit they're going to vote for Trump to another human being, but will.

Same thing to the discussion above about 15% undecided in Wisconsin. Most of those people are not undecided, they are ashamed. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[Homercles 10,205]

So in addition to the DC kid, the RNC will also have the gun-toting duo that brandished weapons at the BLM protests a few months back?  
 

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEOzooF2xHZltfIKDVe_KswYqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

Edited August 18, 2020 by Homercles