2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

[bad_teammate 13195]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

 I’m simply pointing out that even though you claim to be super lib democrat, you are constantly making arguments like you were a trump supporting republican who lives in college station. 

Trump supporters and Aggies don't tell the truth. That's all I'm doing.

1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

1. Blasey-Ford and Reade are both extremely inconsistent accusers whose stories have tons of holes, but we should believe them both anyway because the standard in cases with allegations of criminal conduct should be “put blind faith in whatever gender feels right to you politically”; 

Believing a woman doesn't mean having "blind faith". It means defaulting to, "I'm going to take you seriously and I'm not going to presume you're lying. I'm going to treat you like you were actually a victim."

Not entirely sure what "whatever gender feels right to you politically" means.

Quote

2. All of those who correctly disbelieved the absurd Rolling Stone article about ritualized public gang rapes at UVA are the ones whose brains don’t process information in line with reality, and it’s precisely BECAUSE they don’t let emotion guide them to the opposite (factually incorrect) conclusion;

When the article came out, everyone in that thread doubted it. The only difference between my position (not mine alone, by the way, read the thread) and some others was whether or not to immediately start screaming, "HORSESHIT!"

Then the thread quickly became about whether or not rape culture is real, a point on which literal GamerGate advocates and Huckleberry agreed.

Quote

3. Whether Joe Biden is as mentally sharp in 2020 as Joe Biden was in 2008 is the real issue of these times - not whether Joe Biden in 2020 is more mentally equipped to be President than Donald Trump in 2020; and

This is just a lie. You guys do this a lot.

Quote

4. All of this means, obviously, that Joe Biden shouldn’t be the nominee against Donald Trump. 

I don't even know what this means. Joe Biden is the nominee. It's been settled for 6 months now. What are you talking about?

[BrickHorn 18235]

49 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

WHEREAS, The RNC enthusiastically supports President Trump and continues to reject the policy positions of the Obama-Biden Administration, as well as those espoused by the Democratic National Committee today

That is the Horns-down of party platforms. Congratulations, Republicans. You are the Arkansas of political parties. 

[Homercles 10205]

6 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

 

 

That is the Horns-down of party platforms. Congratulations, Republicans. You are the Arkansas of political parties. 

It makes me think of lessons I’ve learned during my career, especially in ‘managing up’...don’t come to a superior with a problem but no no proposes way to attack/solve it.  I don’t just whine to my boss very often, it’s always ‘I need your help here to complete this’.  
 

The healthcare is failing to manage up.  Just shoot it down with no better ideas to support your issue.  Dumb.  

[Fozzz 152]

8 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Tara Reade? LOL. 
 

Try again. 

Rape apologist. 

[Fozzz 152]

 

[bad_teammate 13195]

Holy shit it's based on reality...

 

[G650 14256]

I lol'd.

[Pancho 44804]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

12 hours ago, HenryJames said:

I’d like to say I’m surprised, but I’m clearly not. 
They are making it really hard to ever vote republican again/vote republican for a long while. There’s like 2 or 3 candidates for president I could imagine voting for in 2024 nationally and nobody locally who hasn’t been tainted in this total and complete, abject capitulation. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21199]

Anyone who hasn't had b_t on ignore since the Duke lacrosse fiasco on TOS is just torturing themselves. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

12 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Not with a bang, but a whimper.  

[Mdhorn 5949]

8 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Holy shit it's based on reality...

 

nope--it's the same as when a Klansman, interviewed prior, said he switched his vote to Hillary just before the election.  He knew that saying he was voting for Trump wasn't going to help Trump in the election--nobody want's the Klan vote, and there was no way he wasn't going to vote for a Republican.  Saying and doing aren't the same.  It was bullshit then and it's bullshit now.  

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/ku-klux-klan-grand-dragon-will-quigg-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/kkk-endorses-hillary-clinton/

Edited August 24, 2020 by Mdhorn

[Fozzz 152]

23 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

nope--it's the same as when a Klansman, interviewed prior, said he switched his vote to Hillary just before the election.  He knew that saying he was voting for Trump wasn't going to help Trump in the election--nobody want's the Klan vote, and there was no way he wasn't going to vote for a Republican.  Saying and doing aren't the same.  It was bullshit then and it's bullshit now.  

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/ku-klux-klan-grand-dragon-will-quigg-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/kkk-endorses-hillary-clinton/

Richard Spencer, welcome to the resistance!

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Over the weekend I watched a few old presidential debates.  And by watched I mean I put them on in the background as a did other stuff.  1960, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996. It’s such a different country now but the same problems existed with no real solutions being proposed. Just a bunch of old guys fighting over small ideas and statistics. 

Nixon 1960 was saying shit like, “The best way to fight communism at home is to address the injustices in society that make communism appealing.”  You’d never hear a Republican say that today. In some ways (not all), Nixon was to the left of both parties today, at least rhetorically.

Most all the other debates centered round taxes and the middle class. Ross Perot was a clown in 1992.  The big take away for me was seeing what issues were deemed important enough to debate at that time.  It was bizarro world.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[JimmyJames 12271]

12 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Rape apologist. 

Dude. For the last time. I wasn’t the guy who raped you and I have no idea who it was. I hope you get the help you need. 

[Guest Lobo]

HUGO---First of all, you have to start spending your weekends differently---may I suggest drugs and alcohol?  Secondly, you bring up a good point...it is almost always fascinating to listen to how the tones of both parties have shifted over the last 60 years of televised conventions/debates.  And you said "Just a bunch of old guys fighting over small ideas and statistics"???  I would change that to "Still just a bunch of small guys fighting over old ideas."  You're also right about..."It's a bizarro world"

Everybody else-----I can watch any of those speeches from either party.  And one thing was always the same, even if you didn't agree with the technique by which they propose it.......the theme of every convention and every debate was always some variation of "Here's where we've been, here's where we are, and here's where I think we should go.  Vote for me and I'll lead us there." 

But in 2020...that tried and true paradigm is on its head.  One guy is uninspiring, unintelligent, and uninteresting.....but seems to be a solid guy.  The other's message is this, "Here's where we've been...although I don't know much about history given most of the speeches I've given in the last four years.  Here's where we are which is the monster from Cloverfield taking a Chipotle shit into the dumpster fire that is 2020 but I take no responsibility at all.  Here's where I think we should, which is far away from this other guy.  A lot of people will follow me away from that off a fucking cliff to land into that same dumpster fire filled with Chipotle shit.......but I still need another 10-20mm or so of you suckers to come with me.  But remember, it's to come with me...not with the party, or a set of policies, or a set of ideas, or even with America...it's just a one-way ticket with me.  Vote for me or fucking else."  

The convention speeches, and to an extent, the debates have always been framed as a simple outline, "Here's what's right and wrong about what's happened in our nation so far, here's where I see us now, here's how we make the future better...vote for me and I'll lead us there."  You can't run on Make America Great Again in 2016, dick around while the stock market goes up and everything else turns to shit while you lie and cheat for 2017, 2018, and 2019......and then purposely let everything go to dumpster shit in 2020, then claim you're going to Keep America Great even though we obviously took a wrong turn at the last Chipotle. 

Your party made an interesting gamble this morning.  Neither released nor adopted an official platform.  Merely endorsed you and whatever it is you want to do.  You think they did that because you're all they need and because of how much they love you?  They didn't.  They did that to stroke your ego out of one side of their mouths because they still need your puppet ass for another 5 months and to hold the Senate.  The real reason they did it though is so they can more effectively distance themselves from you in 2022/2024.  They can return and reboot an actual conservative platform built around the tradition of Madison, Adams, to Lincoln, Goldwater, Reagan, et. al.  It's so they don't have to have a written reminder of how they sold their own souls and that of this nation to a morally bankrupt gameshow host who will be dead in a matter of months.  

Edited August 24, 2020 by Lobo

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Is that why Abbott didn't go? He used the fighting the virus excuse, but I don't buy that.

[Fozzz 152]

4 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

nope--it's the same as when a Klansman, interviewed prior, said he switched his vote to Hillary just before the election.  He knew that saying he was voting for Trump wasn't going to help Trump in the election--nobody want's the Klan vote, and there was no way he wasn't going to vote for a Republican.  Saying and doing aren't the same.  It was bullshit then and it's bullshit now.  

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/ku-klux-klan-grand-dragon-will-quigg-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/kkk-endorses-hillary-clinton/

I think Spencer hates Trump and realizes that the MAGA/alt-right movement is a dead end.  I wouldn't be surprised if he rebrands as a radlib and pushes for segregation on a "woke" basis, as this rationale for racial discrimination will likely be more effective moving forward.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

It's money. He was in hot water over legal fees related to his divorce and was facing jail time for that but managed to work it out with the attorney. However, he still has a lot of debt from his case related to Charlottesville. If he can stay relevant and in the limelight he may figure he can get someone to pick up his fees.

I suppose your theory of rebranding his separatist viewpoint as a 'woke' agenda might figure into that, but at heart he is a white supremacist who needs money and the other white supremacists have moved on without him.

[ultimaton 2981]

Biden Campaign rejects “repugnant” Richard Spencer’s endorsement

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by ultimaton

[henrygandorf 29191]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Over the weekend I watched a few old presidential debates.  And by watched I mean I put them on in the background as a did other stuff.  1960, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996. It’s such a different country now but the same problems existed with no real solutions being proposed. Just a bunch of old guys fighting over small ideas and statistics. 

Nixon 1960 was saying shit like, “The best way to fight communism at home is to address the injustices in society that make communism appealing.”  You’d never hear a Republican say that today. In some ways (not all), Nixon was to the left of both parties today, at least rhetorically.

Most all the other debates centered round taxes and the middle class. Ross Perot was a clown in 1992.  The big take away for me was seeing what issues were deemed important enough to debate at that time.  It was bizarro world.

it's been said before by others (this was not my original thought) that the perception is that political races/debates are about competing answers to the same question - abortion, taxes, immigration, guns, etc.  but the reality is that it's a bigger overall argument to determine which questions should be positioned as important.

the candidates that get bogged down trying to prove their answer is correct often lose to the candidates that are better at pushing their preferred questions/issues to the top of the minds of the voters.  one of the reasons trump even has a chance is because fox news props up the issues that he thinks are important.

[bad_teammate 13195]

6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's been said before by others (this was not my original thought) that the perception is that political races/debates are about competing answers to the same question - abortion, taxes, immigration, guns, etc.  but the reality is that it's a bigger overall argument to determine which questions should be positioned as important.

the candidates that get bogged down trying to prove their answer is correct often lose to the candidates that are better at pushing their preferred questions/issues to the top of the minds of the voters.  one of the reasons trump even has a chance is because fox news props up the issues that he thinks are important.

Dem primary is a good example. Warren and Sanders went super hard with policy solutions to major problems.

Biden said, "C'mon man!"

Biden stomped their heads in lol

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Well, yeah. We could have had Al Gore and maybe made some headway on not melting off the face of planet Earth.

Pass the marshmallows, I'm going to go make some s'mores.

[henrygandorf 29191]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Dem primary is a good example. Warren and Sanders went super hard with policy solutions to major problems.

Biden said, "C'mon man!"

Biden stomped their heads in lol

i know you're ~ joking, but in an analysis of the primaries, one could argue that everyone who got into the weeds with specifics on healthcare (versions of m4a, including funding) may have missed the bigger opportunity of the most important issue to dem voters - beating donald trump.  i'm not saying pete or beto or klobs could've switched gears and just become that person - really only biden could've done it, because he's old and boring and very very well known (and generally liked by black voters). 

but the 2020 democratic primary is absolutely a study in "the best answers to the most serious problems facing the country don't always win."  in fact, i would imagine if you went back 75-100 years (as long as there have been "debate" type activities covered by the press, you would find as many losses as wins for those types of candidates.

you could also argue that this has been a problem for dems for decades, because it's always the dems that think that "our better ideas will win in the end".

[Ted Lange 16085]

 

 

[Ted Lange 16085]

 

 

[mchookem 16336]

so other than florida Biden is running behind Clinton on battleground states?

that is concerning and also doesn't seem correct based on individual polls we've seen. i don't get it. 🤨

[SydneyCarton 48106]

1 minute ago, mchookem said:

so other than florida Biden is running behind Clinton on battleground states?

that is concerning and also doesn't seem correct based on individual polls we've seen. i don't get it. 🤨

It is concerning.

What I *believe* is missing is the fact that Clinton collapsed monumentally in the last 30 days of the election, give or take. And specifically the week before with the Comey email shit.

That being said, everyone should be concerned and no one should be taking fucking victory laps and tossing around attaboys at this point. Dude's within the margin of error in most/all of those states and he's a cheating motherfucker. 

[Queen Bitch 1692]

Oh wow I hate that.

[Fozzz 152]

22 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Maybe Biden should have run as a Republican, and had he beat Trump, we could have a real election that would actually matter.  

[Neonmoon 38129]

Well, I always wanted to visit Russia. I guess i don't have to anymore. 

[Guest Lobo]

What they all said ^^^

I was starting to feel really good about this and I'm salty by nature, back in June/July and starting to worry only about the transition process.  And even with a patriotically inspirational convention bump, between Trump shenanigans and polling mathematical corrections and likely turnout numbers...this thing is back to being closer than many on this forum would like to think, at least in the states that matter.  By October, everything will be locked and loaded in terms of everyone who will be voting will either have a ballot or know where they are going during early voting.  Everyone will know for whom they are voting.  The economy will be where it's gonna stay for a few months.  The pandemic will have surged once again and the plan will still be a question mark.  The narrative of Trump and Biden will have been long settled.  All the disturbing dirty laundry about Trump will have long since been hung out to dry.  This is not a marathon until 3 November.  This is a sprint to Yom Kippur day and then we just rest and hydrate until 3 November. 

In October, We're just a sea of 140mm lotto players with our little papers already filled out (on paper in our heads) waiting on line at 7-11 to cast our numbers for our lucky ticket.  And we're just waiting to see the results, and even then we might not believe them.  So we talk to the clerk and ask to take up smoking, drinking, fucking, and whatever else they got behind that counter if shit don't go my way. 

[heso 2794]

Like I said last week, I’ll believe Biden wins PA when I see it. There are more trump banners/flags/etc. around the greater Pittsburgh area than ever.

i expect a lot of that is that the hardcore Trumpers love to make sure everyone knows knows how much they love trump and Biden doesn’t have that kind of support from anyone. There are also a fair amount of educated, traditional conservatives that, while not openly expressing their love of the orange god-king, will happily pull the lever for a straight R ticket.

I know a bunch of people that will be voting for Trump for a second time. That said, I know a decent number that voted for trump last time that are switching to Biden. I don’t know a single one switching TO trump, I don’t think those actually exist. There might be 1 Kasich voter I know voting for trump this time. But she probably voted for him last time and just told people she voted for Kasich to avoid ridicule. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by heso

[DigglerontheHoof 21199]

16 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so other than florida Biden is running behind Clinton on battleground states?

that is concerning and also doesn't seem correct based on individual polls we've seen. i don't get it. 🤨

IOW, we're fucked.  Fully half of our country will vote for that orange piece of shit.  

[Bevo14 8311]

Just now, heso said:

Like I said last week, I’ll believe Biden wins PA when I see it. There are trump banners/flags/etc. around the greater Pittsburgh area than ever.

I haven't seen as many Trump flags in my Philly suburb as I did last time. Of course I barely leave the house but still. One of my dumbass friends that sat out the last election is voting for Biden this time. We'll see what happens.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Many are not going to like to hear this but the democrats seem hell bent on making this election as close as possible.  Every decision since the VP pick has been about trying to go after voters they easily already have or traditional republican voters that do not exist.  Nothing was learned from 2016 because the exact same playbook is being deployed.  Trump is just too awful to vote for so you must take Biden b/c he’s a nice guy.  

I hope Biden blows Trump out of the water but I’m not feeling good about it. 

[The Dog 44051]

35 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Clickbait is clickbait.

Y'all go to RCP yourselves and look at the numbers that made up those averages. 

 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

Man on the ground report: Southwest Austin, TX, USA.

Last week I was encouraged on my nightly bike ride through suburban Austin.  Not one Trump sign.  Many BLM, Biden, "I'm So Going to Vote", etc. signs.

Saw two Trump signs last night, right across the street from one another.

In the next week or so I will actually start doing an actual tally.  However, there are some brutal hills out there and sometimes I have to keep my head down and get to the top.

I don't do the same route every night and I have about 10 variations of routes and yeah, its Austin.

[DigglerontheHoof 21199]

I'm in Collin Co., in a neighborhood of around 250 or so houses.  There are two houses w/ Biden or anti-Trump signs; mine and one other.  There are 20-30 houses w/ Trump flags/signs.  Texas isn't turning. 

[qwertyu1234 496]

24 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

I haven't seen as many Trump flags in my Philly suburb as I did last time. Of course I barely leave the house but still. One of my dumbass friends that sat out the last election is voting for Biden this time. We'll see what happens.

Yeah i'm seeing about a 50/50 split between signs and flags in those suburbs. 

[heso 2794]

23 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

I haven't seen as many Trump flags in my Philly suburb as I did last time. Of course I barely leave the house but still. One of my dumbass friends that sat out the last election is voting for Biden this time. We'll see what happens.

I think part of that is the direction I’m going and distance from the city. Like you I’m not really leaving the house other than to go golfing or to my grandmother-in-law’s lake house. So the direction I’m traveling away from the city very rapidly goes from suburbs to Mississippi without the accent. 

[SizzleChest 8284]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

52 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Supposedly, I’ve heard that pollsters made a change from 2016 where uneducated whites were under polled. Each poll now has uneducated whites properly weighted and that’s why you’re seeing some of the margins in the battleground states more narrow.

I still think Biden is the favorite and has a 60-70% chance to win this thing at least.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

24 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I'm in Collin Co., in a neighborhood of around 250 or so houses.  There are two houses w/ Biden or anti-Trump signs; mine and one other.  There are 20-30 houses w/ Trump flags/signs.  Texas isn't turning. 

I am not far from you but in Denton Co., and I haven't seen a ton of signs yet in my neighborhood.  What I have seen is mostly Trump/Pence.  What is weird is I have seen only 2 Biden/Harris signs so far in my neighborhood and both houses belong to African Americans.  I am hoping a lot of Biden supporters are like me and vote but don't put up yard signs.

[Ted Lange 16085]

52 minutes ago, heso said:

I know a bunch of people that will be voting for Trump for a second time. That said, I know a decent number that voted for trump last time that are switching to Biden. I don’t know a single one switching TO trump,

Same with my experience, and I’d add that I know a few who sat out last election that are now voting for Biden, well more so against Trump. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

33 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Several things:

1. The primary problem with polls in 2016 involved underweighting the non-college white vote, especially in the Midwest. It's why Clinton lost MI/WI/PA despite having polling "leads" the entire time. There has been much written on this subject and one would hope that state pollsters have worked towards weighting their polls better this time around. 

2. RCP maintains a seemingly arbitrary polling list that includes turds like Hill/Harris and Rasmussen, but excludes Ipsos, Morning Consult and others. They also include CBS/YouGov but exclude Yahoo/YouGov. Shit like that. By contrast Biden's up 9.3 (51.4-42.1) according to 538's more inclusive, more updated aggregator. 51.4% is Biden's highest vote share at any point in the campaign and 9.3 is his biggest lead since early July. 

3. The cake is pretty damn baked already. Much smaller number of undecideds and very little third-party vote this year. The 4-way polling at this point in 2016 was Clinton +4 (42-38) with 20% either Johnson/Stein or undecided. As we know, a lot of those broke towards Trump in the closing weeks of the campaign. By contrast, Biden and Trump are currently pulling 93%+ combined. There's a world of difference between being up 7 points at 50-43 and up 7 at 45-38. 

On that same note,  President's tend not to get re-elected with -12 net approval and strongly negative favorability ratings. Big difference between 2016 "I don't like either of these people but I ain't voting for the one I've hated since the 90's" and 2020 "I don't like either of these choices but the guy currently in the job has fucking sucked at since his inauguration."

 

 

[The Dog 44051]

40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly, I’ve heard that pollsters made a change from 2016 where uneducated whites were under polled. Each poll now has uneducated whites properly weighted and that’s why you’re seeing some of the margins in the battleground states more narrow.

 

That's correct - and keep in mind that the were a lot more undecideds at this point last time and two third party candidates who polled way better than they actually performed in November. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Several things:

1. The primary problem with polls in 2016 involved underweighting the non-college white vote, especially in the Midwest. It's why Clinton lost MI/WI/PA despite having polling "leads" the entire time. There has been much written on this subject and one would hope that state pollsters have worked towards weighting their polls better this time around. 

2. RCP maintains a seemingly arbitrary polling list that includes turds like Hill/Harris and Rasmussen, but excludes Ipsos, Morning Consult and others. They also include CBS/YouGov but exclude Yahoo/YouGov. Shit like that. By contrast Biden's up 9.3 (51.4-42.1) according to 538's more inclusive, more updated aggregator. 51.4% is Biden's highest vote share at any point in the campaign and 9.3 is his biggest lead since early July. 

3. The cake is pretty damn baked already. Much smaller number of undecideds and very little third-party vote this year. The 4-way polling at this point in 2016 was Clinton +4 (42-38) with 20% either Johnson/Stein or undecided. As we know, a lot of those broke towards Trump in the closing weeks of the campaign. By contrast, Biden and Trump are currently pulling 93%+ combined. There's a world of difference between being up 7 points at 50-43 and up 7 at 45-38. 

On that same note,  President's tend not to get re-elected with -12 net approval and strongly negative favorability ratings. Big difference between 2016 "I don't like either of these people but I ain't voting for the one I've hated since the 90's" and 2020 "I don't like either of these choices but the guy currently in the job has fucking sucked at since his inauguration."

 

 

Another good rule of thumb in Biden’s favor is undecideds at the end of an election usually vote for the challenger and not the incumbent. Trump benefitted massively from winning 2 categories that shouldn’t be relevant this time :

 

voters who decided within the last few days ( fuckface comey looms large here)

voters who hate both trump and Hilary....  I know for certain that trump won this group by a 2 to 1 margin. Biden is doing much better I’m this category so far.

 

Trump getting another “comey” moment is looking more unlikely by the day. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, heso said:

Like I said last week, I’ll believe Biden wins PA when I see it. There are more trump banners/flags/etc. around the greater Pittsburgh area than ever.

That would be a 13 point improvement over Clinton in Scranton.

Lines up with some internal polls I've seen released by the GOP Rep. in Bucks County (Lily White but highly-educated suburbs of Philly) that have Biden up 9. Clinton barely eked out a 1 point victory in Bucks County in 2016.

Biden needs to just increase his margin by a point or 2 in Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton/Allentown or knock a point or two off Trump's margin in the red counties.