2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

29 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

Trump getting another “comey” moment is looking more unlikely by the day. 

I liked somebody's (Lobo maybe) analogy the other day to brexit, and how the ability to push it across only happened because the spike in favor of it exactly coincided with the vote timing

that make early voting and vote by mail a tough nut for trump to crack. if too many people spread their vote over the course of a month, it is hard to time some info dump or comey action -- something that would get a spike but not really survive any reversion to the mean -- with voting behavior. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Many are not going to like to hear this but the democrats seem hell bent on making this election as close as possible.  Every decision since the VP pick has been about trying to go after voters they easily already have or traditional republican voters that do not exist.  Nothing was learned from 2016 because the exact same playbook is being deployed.  Trump is just too awful to vote for so you must take Biden b/c he’s a nice guy.  

I hope Biden blows Trump out of the water but I’m not feeling good about it. 

Whatever.

[thepop 4,409]

Stop feeling PTSD from 2016

[StassneyHorn 6,629]

Biden up in Texas 48-47, public policy polling. 5 of last 8 polls show him with a lead in Texas. Get on the train.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I liked somebody's (Lobo maybe) analogy the other day to brexit, and how the ability to push it across only happened because the spike in favor of it exactly coincided with the vote timing

that make early voting and vote by mail a tough nut for trump to crack. if too many people spread their vote over the course of a month, it is hard to time some info dump or comey action -- something that would get a spike but not really survive any reversion to the mean -- with voting behavior. 

Comey hit at the worst possible time.  It dampened Democrat enthusiasm and people literally saw the notification and left voting lines over it. It had a few days to simmer and get baked into the polls which came out as shitty as ever for Clinton. She was projected to win popular vote by just 3 and won by 2.5% I think.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Bevo14 8,364]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

That would be a 13 point improvement over Clinton in Scranton.

Lines up with some internal polls I've seen released by the GOP Rep. in Bucks County (Lily White but highly-educated suburbs of Philly) that have Biden up 9. Clinton barely eked out a 1 point victory in Bucks County in 2016.

Biden needs to just increase his margin by a point or 2 in Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton/Allentown or knock a point or two off Trump's margin in the red counties. 

Fuck Bucks County.  That number is hard to believe

Edited August 24, 2020 by Bevo14

[GRHorn 105]

How will they vote?

[thepop 4,409]

26 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

How will they vote?

Same as usual 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,887]

32 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

How will they vote?

They probably won't

[GRHorn 105]

15 minutes ago, thepop said:

Same as usual 

Not sure what you mean. 
 

9 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

They probably won't

You think people that were driven to bring a deadly weapon into their home for the first time wont have the initiative to vote?  Interesting. 

[SubliminalHorn 6,811]

14 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Not sure what you mean. 
 

You think people that were driven to bring a deadly weapon into their home for the first time wont have the initiative to vote?  Interesting. 

Yes? Is there some sort of correlation between first time gun ownership and voting? Or are you just trying to grasp at any sign that trump isn’t loathed by the entire country 

[Chuckie Finster 22,725]

How will they vote?

Statistically, they are now less likely to even be alive in November.

[TexEx15 17,568]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

How will they vote?

Did I miss the point where they said this also means 5 million new voters for trump as you are trying to imply?

[GRHorn 105]

12 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Yes? Is there some sort of correlation between first time gun ownership and voting? Or are you just trying to grasp at any sign that trump isn’t loathed by the entire country 

I would submit that people that feel compelled to buy a gun for the first time in 2020 are most often doing it for self defense or defending their family.
 

Why would there be a surge in people feeling the need to take their defense into their own hands? 🤔 🧐 

 

Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 

Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?

Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?

Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

[Brisketexan 105,275]

How will they vote?

You should be wondering.
Because every Trumper I know already owned a firearm.
But I’ve advised several folks who have never owned a gun what to buy. They are, ummm, not Trump fans.
I’m sure there are some folks who bought guns because Antifa is coming to their suburban home, but a shitload of African Americans and jews armed themselves because...they should.

[mdmost 43,030]

Yeah people wouldn't buy guns because they're unsure how the pandemic was going to play out. They're just all afraid of Antifa and BLM. 

[lemonlime 5,503]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Yeah people wouldn't buy guns because they're unsure how the pandemic was going to play out. They're just all afraid of Antifa and BLM. 

They're also not at all concerned about protecting themselves from neo-Nazis or the trumpy lunatics who shot up a synagogue and a Walmart.

[GRHorn 105]

2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Did I miss the point where they said this also means 5 million new voters for trump as you are trying to imply?

That would be impossible and I said no such thing. 
 

These are my assumptions. 
 

In an apparent record year for new gun ownership, a large number of those are not your diehard Maga voters. Those already owned guns. How many are Dem voters? Idk. But once you feel compelled to buy a Gun and feel comfortable with it and learn more about them, the only way a new gun owner is gonna move is from D to R. Not the other way around. 
 

Joe Biden

“Do you agree with the DC vs Heller decision in regards to protecting the individual right to bear arms that are in common use and which are utilized for lawful purposes?” Biden was asked.

 “The answer is," Biden said, "If I were on the Court I wouldn’t make the same ruling. Okay?"

 

 

[mdmost 43,030]

1 minute ago, lemonlime said:

They're also not at all concerned about protecting themselves from neo-Nazis or the trumpy lunatics who shot up a synagogue and a Walmart.

You know all those people who hoarded TP during March and April? How will they vote?

[GRHorn 105]

5 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

They're also not at all concerned about protecting themselves from neo-Nazis or the trumpy lunatics who shot up a synagogue and a Walmart.

That’s right. I’ve seen all those neo nazi riots. The Trumpy ones too where they burn up the hood while also calling to defund the police. Those ones. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,403]

GRHorn not disappointing on the night of the RNC. 

If millions of people are switching from D to R(tards), it would be reflected in polling. 

Wonder how many of those new gun owners are black? Not that they need protection or anything...
 

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by totallynotabuttpirate

[mdmost 43,030]

7 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

GRHorn not disappointing on the night of the RNC. 

If millions of people are switching from D to R(tards), it would be reflected in polling. 

Wonder how many of those new gun owners are black? Not that they need protection or anything...
 

 

Quote

NSSF surveys revealed that 58 percent of firearm purchases were among African American men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group. Women comprised 40 percent of first-time gun purchasers.

 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

How will they vote?

For Joe Biden.

 

All those new gun buyers are us libs getting ready to defend ourselves when the Trump Death Cult lose their shit and start getting violent when he loses.

 

Evidence presented in the above post -

 

58% - Black people

40% - Women

 

Let’s get it on.

[GRHorn 105]

Imagine thinking a record number of new gun owners was a net positive for the party whose Presidential nominee opposes the SCOTUS decision that reaffirmed the individual Right to bear arms. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Imagine thinking a record number of new gun owners was a net positive for the party whose Presidential nominee opposes the SCOTUS decision that reaffirmed the individual Right to bear arms. 

You are truly a deep thinker. Go crack some more backs.

[Guest Lobo]

It's easier for a lot of us.  I'll send you the link to our group.  It's now in the hundreds, just in Central Texas.  We are former Republicans, voting for Biden, who are purchasing the first weapons in our lives.  I've owned plenty of them before, but never in my own name.  But if we're just one small "chapter"...Momma said I'm different, but I ain't special.  This is happening all over the country.  I want Biden for President, I want Guns, and I want your False Messiah's Head on a fucking spike.  

Edited August 25, 2020 by Lobo

[BradInATX 9,208]

54 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Why would there be a surge in people feeling the need to take their defense into their own hands? 🤔 🧐 

Good point

[mdmost 43,030]

8 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Imagine thinking a record number of new gun owners was a net positive for the party whose Presidential nominee opposes the SCOTUS decision that reaffirmed the individual Right to bear arms. 

Imagine thinking the record number of new gun owners are happy with the current occupant of the White House whose decisions and direction for this country has led them to believe they need to arm themselves to be safe when they never had that notion prior to his shitty administration. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

8 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

 

but the 2020 democratic primary is absolutely a study in "the best answers to the most serious problems facing the country don't always win."  in fact, i would imagine if you went back 75-100 years (as long as there have been "debate" type activities covered by the press, you would find as many losses as wins for those types of candidates.

Those candidates suck and never win. They never have. If you don’t campaign in poetry you lose. Quickest way to lose the American people is to roll out a bunch of policy position papers. Same as it ever was. If it doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker (or a hat) you are losing the battle. 

[Brisketexan 105,275]

It's easier for a lot of us.  I'll send you the link to our group.  It's now in the hundreds, just in Central Texas.  We are former Republicans, voting for Biden, who are purchasing the first weapons in our lives.  I've owned plenty of them before, but never in my own name.  But if we're just one small "chapter"...Momma said I'm different, but I ain't special.  This is happening all over the country.  I want Biden for President, I want Guns, and I want your False Messiah's Head on a fucking spike.  

I’ll go you one better...you don’t want to know how many firearms I own. My gun safe is overcrowded. My son is bucking to buy a new rifle just for fun shooting. We are both strong Biden votes (well, the boy will just miss the age cutoff, but he’s a a Biden guy).

 

One of the dumbest fucking myths is that anyone who owns a gun must be a Trumper. No, dumbass. Only the gun owners who fetishize their fucking guns are Trump locks. I know a crap ton of gun owners - and several are like me, with an arsenal - who loathe Trump and unthinking morons like GR.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I’ll go you one better...you don’t want to know how many firearms I own. My gun safe is overcrowded. My son is bucking to buy a new rifle just for fun shooting. We are both strong Biden votes (well, the boy will just miss the age cutoff, but he’s a a Biden guy).

 

One of the dumbest fucking myths is that anyone who owns a gun must be a Trumper. No, dumbass. Only the gun owners who fetishize their fucking guns are Trump locks. I know a crap ton of gun owners - and several are like me, with an arsenal - who loathe Trump and unthinking morons like GR.

This is why I haven’t bought a gun.  I am waiting for Biden to win and then the Democrats are going to take your guns and divide them up and give them to people like me.  You know, socialism, communism and what not.

[406W30th 1,111]

1 hour ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

GRHorn not disappointing on the night of the RNC. 

Surprised he wasn't a speaker tbh

[Ted Lange 16,113]

 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,550]

I would submit that people that feel compelled to buy a gun for the first time in 2020 are most often doing it for self defense or defending their family.
 
Why would there be a surge in people feeling the need to take their defense into their own hands?  
 
Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 
Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?
Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?
Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

I'm not the first to say it, but you are Surly's finest fucking idiot.

I think I recall you are in the medical field, my only hope is that you share a practice with the crazy Katy HCQ witch doctor, so I never come across your practice.

[henrygandorf 29,194]

i know one of the 5mm, though not that well.

he's going to live off the grid.  as for "how he is voting", yeah, he's never voting ever again.  not sure what's going on in the world that made him so disillusioned.

[ryskey 447]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 

Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?

Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?

Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

I have a rifle and a shotgun, both for hunting from when I used to do that.  Haven't shot either of them in over 10 years.  In fact, I don't really like guns very much. I'm not against guns, just not into them.  So I'm not a first time gun buyer but I'm behaving like one.

I recently bought a scary black rifle and a tactical shotgun.  And a shitload of ammunition.  I despise the radical elements on both sides an equal amount from an ideological perspective. But only one side scares me in a physical violence kind of way, and it's not the dipshits vandalizing property in Portland and elsewhere (I'm differentiating between them and peaceful protesters).  Those people generally aren't armed with anything more than a hockey stick and a trash can lid shield so they're not very scary.

I'm afraid of angry, confederate flag waving radical right wingers who feel empowered and inspired by despotic behavior from our President, particular if he loses a close election in a few months.  Those assholes are armed, and with a few well-timed tweets, Trump can and will inspire his own little army of room temperature IQ goons.  My goal is to be as well armed as them.  So I bought guns.

I'm not voting for Trump.  Even if I'm an exception, why can't most of those people buying guns just be people who were already supporting Trump and just didn't own a gun until now?  

[Irieguy 1,059]

I bit the bullet and read @GRHorn article. I guess GRUHorn assumes African Americans are buying guns but then lying to pollsters about their intention to vote for Biden. Curious. 

”NSSF surveys revealed that 58 percent of firearm purchases were among African American men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group.”

[thepop 4,409]

As I said, they’re going to vote the same. That was the end of conversation. Now back on track. 
 

 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

3 hours ago, mdmost said:

 

African Americans buying guns.

Damn we may actually get some meaningful gun control laws if they keep that up.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,522]

11 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I would submit that people that feel compelled to buy a gun for the first time in 2020 are most often doing it for self defense or defending their family.
 

Why would there be a surge in people feeling the need to take their defense into their own hands? 🤔 🧐 

 

Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 

Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?

Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?

Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

A lot of people have made the point that I would have about people who are buying weapons to protect their life and liberty from state violence and non-state zealots, so let me tell you about an interesting conversation I had. 

My daughter's first real moment of activism was post parkland when she was one of the leaders of the Austin student protests for tighter gun control laws. I was therefore stunned when she was recently defending Garrett Foster's ultimately fatal choice to carry an AK-47 during an Austin BLM/defund protest. She essentially said that the police and Trump-affiliated groups have attacked unarmed protestors enough times that they need to be prepared to protect themselves.  So let me ask you some questions:

Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 

Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?

Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?

Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[GRHorn 105]

9 hours ago, Irieguy said:

I bit the bullet and read @GRHorn article. I guess GRUHorn assumes African Americans are buying guns but then lying to pollsters about their intention to vote for Biden. Curious. 

”NSSF surveys revealed that 58 percent of firearm purchases were among African American men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group.”

I never said all of them would vote R. I said there’d be more likely to have D to R crossovers among new gun owners than the opposite. Thus I’m thinking the surge in new gun owners is net positive for Rs. I don’t know how much.  You may disagree with that.

 

[Bateshorn 9,929]

4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I never said all of them would vote R. I said there’d be more likely to have D to R crossovers among new gun owners than the opposite. Thus I’m thinking the surge in new gun owners is net positive for Rs. I don’t know how much.  You may disagree with that.

 

You do realize that for most rational gun owners, the incredibly mild gun laws on the books are not really seen as a solo motivating political factor?  Like, for somebody that owns a 1 or 2 pistols/hunting rifle/shotgun, they are no more likely to vote on gun control as a specific issue any more than they would, say, property tax policy or medicaid expansion.  This idea that the mere ownership of a gun makes you a single issue voter is not backed up by data.  It tends to correlate with voting republican, but so does being male, white, and evangelical.

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Bateshorn

[jimmyjazz 46,097]

11 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I never said all of them would vote R. I said there’d be more likely to have D to R crossovers among new gun owners than the opposite. Thus I’m thinking the surge in new gun owners is net positive for Rs. I don’t know how much.  You may disagree with that.

So it's your theory that a large chunk of the 58% of new gun owners who are African-American buck the overwhelming national trend for those people to support Biden over Trump?

[DigglerontheHoof 21,212]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

You do realize that for most rational gun owners, the incredibly mild gun laws on the books are not really seen as a solo motivating political factor?  Like, for somebody that owns a 1 or 2 pistols/hunting rifle/shotgun, they are no more likely to vote on gun control as a specific issue any more than they would, say, property tax policy or medicaid expansion.  This idea that the mere ownership of a gun makes you a single issue voter is not backed up by data.  It tends to correlate with voting republican, but so does being male, white, and evangelical.

 

Exactly.  I have about 10 guns; a few shotguns, rifles and 3 pistols.  I've never voted based on gun control b/c of the.....wait for it....second amendment. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So it's your theory that a large chunk of the 58% of new gun owners who are African-American buck the overwhelming national trend for those people to support Biden over Trump?

That's not what he's saying. He's saying that as soon as they get their finger on that trigger and feel the big dick energy, they turn Republican.

[bad_teammate 13,224]

Going after Republicans is a bad play.

 

[fattyflattie 4,638]

10 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

African Americans buying guns.

Damn we may actually get some meaningful gun control laws if they keep that up.

That was my first fear as a gun owner, not gun nut. I fall closer to  @Brisketexan as I have a safe popping at the seams, but don’t feel the need to masturbate to them.   That said, I think I am going to purchase a few more geared towards protection rather than wing shooting. Not because of the mobs today, but because of what the mobs may be 10 years from now.  I don’t see things getting better for awhile. 
 

ETA: glad to see more aa’s purchasing firearms. People exercising their rights jumps aisles imo. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by fattyflattie

[GRHorn 105]

40 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's not what he's saying. He's saying that as soon as they get their finger on that trigger and feel the big dick energy, they turn Republican.

Lol. Not exactly, but ok. It’s more likely than the inverse. 
 

I’m a Republican buying my first gun. Wow this is great. I should vote Democrat. I appreciate their candidate’s common sense approach to disagreeing with my fundamental right to own it. 

[hobbes2702 13,055]

13 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I would submit that people that feel compelled to buy a gun for the first time in 2020 are most often doing it for self defense or defending their family.
 

Why would there be a surge in people feeling the need to take their defense into their own hands? 🤔 🧐 

 

Is there one side in particular that has looked the other way when it comes to destructive citizens or the loss of “law and order”? 

Or is there any one side that wants to “defund the police”?

Perhaps people that feel newly compelled to defend themselves would be less likely to vote for a party that tacitly supports what is happening?

Maybe you can put the pieces together. 

As a first time gun buyer in 2020 I can assure you I’m not voting for Trump.