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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:
Respectfully disagree. 
Trump and the republicans have lost the suburbs, which have driven politics in this state for going on at least 40 years. It will be close and there are still plenty of white male shitheads in the suburbs to make it close for trump, but it will be the white woman in places like grapevine who make the difference. 

That is exactly why Donald Trump will win Texas, albeit with a smaller margin than any GOP candidate in their active win streak. The suburbs have shifted, not flipped. Biden may eek out Williamson County. Suburban DFW and Houston are still red, just less so than they have been.

FWIW, Fort Bend County went for Hillary.

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gmr548

gmr548 16612

Posted
Posted
FWIW, Fort Bend County went for Hillary.
It did, narrowly, but as a whole suburban Houston is quite red. The only reason Harris County isn't as blue as Dallas or Travis is because of the many Houston suburbs included. Galveston and Brazoria are solid red. Montgomery has to be the reddest major metro county in the country.
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:
FWIW, Fort Bend County went for Hillary.

It did, narrowly, but as a whole suburban Houston is quite red. The only reason Harris County isn't as blue as Dallas or Travis is because of the many Houston suburbs included. Galveston and Brazoria are solid red. Montgomery has to be the reddest major metro county in the country.

Yeah, but there are 3.5 million more people in Harris County than Brazoria, Montgomery, and Galveston combined.

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gmr548

gmr548 16612

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Posted
Yeah, but there are 3.5 million more people in Harris County than Brazoria, Montgomery, and Galveston combined.
And 45 percent of Harris County will vote for Trump because of the large number of suburban white voters, making Biden's net margin in the Houston MSA relatively thin.

He doesn't have to flip all of suburban counties outright but he does have to improve on even Beto's margins, who was basically created in a lab to win the "white women in Grapevine."
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

And 45 percent of Harris County will vote for Trump because of the large number of suburban white voters, making Biden's net margin in the Houston MSA relatively thin.

He doesn't have to flip all of suburban counties outright but he does have to improve on even Beto's margins, who was basically created in a lab to win the "white women in Grapevine."

Donald Trump got 41.8% in 2016.

He's not going to improve on that in 2020.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
Just now, JimmyJames said:

I think some of y’all are underestimating how much Texas is in play. It’s the Republican Party Waterloo.

It's definitely in play. I just don't think this is the year it flips. I would love to be wrong.

If you go west of Austin you would think Donald Trump is about to win president for life. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31534

Posted
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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's definitely in play. I just don't think this is the year it flips. I would love to be wrong.

If you go west of Austin you would think Donald Trump is about to win president for life. 

I don't put much stock in Trump signs in most of Collin or Denton county, or rural-ish places like west of Austin.  Those places were Trump from jump.  They are "the base."

Wealthy parts of Dallas that haven't had D campaign signs in any number probably since WWII or before are rife with Biden signs.  That will be the difference maker.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwiceHorn said:

I don't put much stock in Trump signs in most of Collin or Denton county, or rural-ish places like west of Austin.  Those places were Trump from jump.  They are "the base."

Wealthy parts of Dallas that haven't had D campaign signs in any number probably since WWII or before are rife with Biden signs.  That will be the difference maker.

I don't put much stock into it either, it's just jarring.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's definitely in play. I just don't think this is the year it flips. I would love to be wrong.

If you go west of Austin you would think Donald Trump is about to win president for life. 

If you go west of Austin you’re absolutely right. That is no doubt trump country.

But east north and south of Austin in the cities and surrounding suburbs is definitely not.

This means nothing to most people. But the state courts of appeals in the surrounding areas of DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have moved significantly democratic over the last few years have become democratic and in the next election will be all democratic. This is a huge shift because it’s not just the cities, but the surrounding suburbs like Williamson county. Its a harbinger  things to come.

For years the dems in Texas have waited for the Hispanic vote in south Texas to change things. It never happened. Instead trump came along and along with out of state whites moving to the suburbs, have changed things instead. I guess we shall see.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

If you go west of Austin you’re absolutely right. That is no doubt trump country.

But east north and south of Austin in the cities and surrounding suburbs is definitely not.

This means nothing to most people. But the state courts of appeals in the surrounding areas of DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have moved significantly democratic over the last few years have become democratic and in the next election will be all democratic. This is a huge shift because it’s not just the cities, but the surrounding suburbs like Williamson county. Its a harbinger  things to come.

For years the dems in Texas have waited for the Hispanic vote in south Texas to change things. It never happened. Instead trump came along and along with out of state whites moving to the suburbs, have changed things instead. I guess we shall see.

I hope it's this year because I am of the opinion that once Texas turns blue, it's never going back and that is the end of the Republican Party in presidential politics.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I hope it's this year because I am of the opinion that once Texas turns blue, it's never going back and that is the end of the Republican Party in presidential politics.

I hope it’s this year too and I think it will but will be close. But Texas will soon turn democratic, I just hope it does so before trump and his fellow Nazis outlaw opposition parties like they did in Germany in the 30s.

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bluto

bluto 4942

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Posted

The 18 close call with Cruz and it showing that voting in Tx actually matters for both sides is going to lead to a wildass turnout this yr on both sides. Trump will take Tx by 5ish ultimately, there’s just more R’s who always took Tx for granted than non voting D’s or flips.

Also, I’ve seen old exit poll analysis that migrants from other states were one of the strongest advantages cruz had in 18. That migration has remained strong over the last 2 yrs.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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Posted
17 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Any attorneys care to weigh in here?  Are they literally suing to stop PA from counting mail in votes?

As usual anything Trump accuses someone of doing, he is actively doing. Trump saying this election will be rigged is because he’s trying to fucking rig it. 

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5404

Posted
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18 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Blanco, Burnet, Llano, Mason Counties. 

It's crazy the amount of signage and flags.

Yea, I thought you meant places West of Austin that actually had people. Dripping Springs, Lago Vista, Lakeway, Bee Caves, Wimberly etc....

If you mean sparsely populated counties, one hour or more from Austin, then yea, it's 99% Dotard country. 

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ChuckNorrisActionJeans

ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2682

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I'm not of the belief that Biden can get Texas. I don't trust the fucking suburbs at ALL. If it happens, it'll be people in the cities voting in force, specifically people who don't usually vote in force -- minorities and young people. Obviously not saying anything groundbreaking here. I did a tiny bit of my part today in being an influence on my UT-attending niece whose family is uber-conservative and Christ-IAN, while she's starting to open her eyes to real life and the fact people she cares about experience discrimination. Told her how important it is for college students to vote, gave her links to register/request absentee ballot etc. And said, share with your friends-- your cool friends only --- kidding not kidding. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


She’s right. And of course, I think we’re already toast. This election will not be free and fair.

And even if it was, Trump wins Texas +5, quit kidding yourselves.

Wrong. Beto was minus 3. The state is the fastest growing in the country. More registered voters than any state of the nation in the last 4 years. Biden and trump are dead even in the polls. 

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thepop

thepop 4409

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

I hope it's this year because I am of the opinion that once Texas turns blue, it's never going back and that is the end of the Republican Party in presidential politics.

Midwest turning red could make it a wash (Wisconsin and Minnesota). Florida and Ohio are already lost too.

Edited by thepop
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thepop

thepop 4409

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Posted

It's easy to get caught up living in one of the cities, but I don't trust this state to turn blue just yet. It's one of those "i'll believe it when i see it" things.

The old rural folks will turn up big like they always do.

If there's any hope it's because of Beto's mass voter registration campaign and Trumps unpopularity.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

I'm not of the belief that Biden can get Texas. I don't trust the fucking suburbs at ALL. If it happens, it'll be people in the cities voting in force, specifically people who don't usually vote in force -- minorities and young people. Obviously not saying anything groundbreaking here. I did a tiny bit of my part today in being an influence on my UT-attending niece whose family is uber-conservative and Christ-IAN, while she's starting to open her eyes to real life and the fact people she cares about experience discrimination. Told her how important it is for college students to vote, gave her links to register/request absentee ballot etc. And said, share with your friends-- your cool friends only --- kidding not kidding. 

I will say, and to thepop's point above, having lived in three suburbs from three different large Texas cities across many years, suburban white folks are being handed the win/win election in 2020.

Trump wins, great that's probably who they wanted secretly but couldn't really say outloud in 2020; jobs/economy will be fine for them and upper middle-class is happy.

Biden wins, great, a return to Obama/centrist democracy without any real upheaval or any drastic changes, they get to blame everything that goes wrong on the Democrats again, Dems prob can't do a lot to raise taxes too much, jobs/economy will be fine for them and upper middle-class is happy.

Edited by Rougarou
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105318

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Posted
And we will have to get used to living with violence.

We already are. I mean, paranoid white folks are just starting to get it, but for the rest of us who get hunted at Wal Marts and by dirty cops, it’s only going to get worse. The purging of first generation Americans who are deemed undesirable (not likely to vote GOP) is going to be particularly fun.

Wonder if they’ll deport my dad? He was born in one of the border counties back when record keeping was so-so.

We are a shithole country. It’s all over but the shouting.
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Brandywine

Brandywine 1316

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I went to the CNN homepage and there were 11 articles on Trump in some form. 1, maybe, on Biden/Harris. This is going to be 2016 all over again. Granted most of Trump’s articles were not positive but still that gets his name out there because most people don’t read the articles. They just see his name over and over. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I went to the CNN homepage and there were 11 articles on Trump in some form. 1, maybe, on Biden/Harris. This is going to be 2016 all over again. Granted most of Trump’s articles were not positive but still that gets his name out there because most people don’t read the articles. They just see his name over and over. 

Donald Trump is the preident

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22728

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Posted
Trump continues to break the polling https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

For those who say Biden is going to win in a landslide. This is starting to feel like 2016 all over again.

Did you read the article? All it is saying is that people feel like Trump has a much better chance than what the polling is showing. That doesn’t mean anything other than people draw conclusions based on emotion rather than data.

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6811

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Trump continues to break the polling https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

For those who say Biden is going to win in a landslide. This is starting to feel like 2016 all over again.

Eh all it’s saying is that people have PTSD from 2016 and won’t believe it until they see it re: a Biden victory. I think most of us here feel the same way. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9937

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Trump continues to break the polling https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

For those who say Biden is going to win in a landslide. This is starting to feel like 2016 all over again.

This has been consistent for at least two years: regardless of the polling on who they support, people think that Trump will win. Basically everyone polled thinks the polling is wrong. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

We already are. I mean, paranoid white folks are just starting to get it, but for the rest of us who get hunted at Wal Marts and by dirty cops, it’s only going to get worse. The purging of first generation Americans who are deemed undesirable (not likely to vote GOP) is going to be particularly fun.

Wonder if they’ll deport my dad? He was born in one of the border counties back when record keeping was so-so.

We are a shithole country. It’s all over but the shouting.

This is nothing.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

This has been consistent for at least two years: regardless of the polling on who they support, people think that Trump will win. Basically everyone polled thinks the polling is wrong. 

In 2018, 50 percent of registered voters including 83 percent of republicans thought the republicans would keep the house.

Trumpkins do not live in reality. They live in trump fantasy land. 
 

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/10/15/little-partisan-agreement-on-the-pressing-problems-facing-the-u-s/

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31534

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

Any attorneys care to weigh in here?  Are they literally suing to stop PA from counting mail in votes?

What apparently happened is Trumpco sued Pennsylvania in federal court to try to stop a "no-excuse" mail-in voting plan that included all manner of things to make voting other-than-in-person easy.  I conclude from that that any actions it was taking in Pennsylvania state court were not turning out well for them.

The federal court decided to abstain from a ruling in the case and issued a "stay" of the litigation, meaning the court will take no further action until and unless something in the Pennsylvania courts occurs that implicates a federal interest.  Ruling here.

The reason being that election law and procedure is initially a state law matter, unless Congress has specifically legislated on something, which it has not in the arena of election procedures.

On occasion, however, those state-law procedures can rise to the level of offending the federal constitution (whether this has occurred was the central issue in Bush v. Gore).  Those circumstances are limited.    The court said that Pennsylvania's elections officials and courts should have first say on what PA will or will not do and what is or is not required by Pennsylvania law.

Trumpco here is trying to at least get them to separate and segregate the mail-in ballots for examination.  I think the court is probably going to abstain on that, too.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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