2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[formermav43 4606]

21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That explanation makes a lot more sense than a blanket statement like your first in this discussion.

Yet I didn’t contradict my statement, I just expounded it. You asked a question, and I clarified what I meant. It’s how a discussion should work, if we’d actually talk to each other.

Ain’t it grand?

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

John Oliver was nails tonight. But most telling was something that went completely unnoticed last week  Part of Pence’s speech, which he highlighted:

”The American people know we do not have to choose between supporting law enforcement and standing with our African-American neighbors to improve the quality of their lives, education, jobs and safety.”

Talk about creating an “other”. The grammar of that sentence suggests “American people” and “African-American neighbors”.  

You can suggest I am mincing this words. But I didn’t write one of the two most important RNC speeches (and one that would be followed word for word on the teleprompter).  
 

if you vote for trump, first, Fuck You. Second, you are complicit with a leadership that stratifies African Americans from “American People”. 

[Tom 2959]

On 8/28/2020 at 9:04 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

 I typically fall more towards the old school "Def Comedy Jam" / BET's "Comic View" types.

 

You're going to fucking love Gaffigan.  

[Goredho 17406]

7 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Bot pocket!

[Tom 2959]

On 8/29/2020 at 9:04 AM, Lobo said:

 

Also, how did Gaffigan get painted as this comedian who never swears like Jeff Foxworthy who actually doesn't swear?  Jim swears all the fucking time.  Overall, yeah he's a very clean comedian by today standards but listen to him on XM radio or comedy channel.  He swears a few times per set.  That said, his twitter rant was fucking fantastic.  Gaffigan has previously been sort of "cast out" from the cool comics club.  They saw that "audience voice" thing he does throughout his set as gimmicky and only slight less bad than "Get 'er done" or "Now, dat's funny right 'der."  But he did pay his road dues, 30 years before he got offered a show, and even then it was online or some shit.  Not like he skated by on his good looks or badboy persona.  But the past few days, comics are coming out of the woodwork to say how awesome he is and glad he's taking a stand and all that.  /rant 

 

 

There's so much wrong in this paragraph I'm not sure where to begin.  Since this is the election thread and not the comedy/Jim Gaffigan thread I'm just going to ignore it.

[Guest Lobo]

Okay, cool.  

[Goredho 17406]

4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

More of this.

Democrats cannot be defensive about this - attack attack attack.

 

Agreed. And further, literally everyone needs to be asking themselves what they would regret not doing on the eve of the destruction of American democracy by a would-be despot.

That is just the reality of where we are at, Trump and those who benefit from him being power are literally manufacturing a race war to build a context of fear in the ‘burbs in an attempt to attract the voters there.  If they will do that, what won’t they do?  We’re already miles beyond the pale.  If they had any morality or ethics that would call them to serve a greater good, they would have kicked in long ago.

Trump, his GOP and the conservative machine are prepared to burn the country to the ground to preserve their minority rule over America.  Which begs the question:  What are the rest of us prepared to do to stop it?

[BradInATX 9208]

I really didn’t vote for Trump, and won’t vote for Trump, but it’s definitely fantasy land to think he’s only popular in Texas with West Texas roughnecks and tiny shithole towns.   He’s much less popular in Texas than in most other Confederate states because (a) we have more Latinos here and (b) many of the white people here are more affluent than in the Deep South and Appalachia, and not so easily conned by lowest common denominator scams.   But what I’m observing is that he has way more support in the suburbs and even in the non-Austin urban areas than I would have hoped.
I hope I’m wrong, but the R next to the name, a tax cut, and some well timed fearmongering about rioters, illegal immigrants or socialism are going to be big (probably insurmountable) hurdles for Biden winning here.  Other regions will probably break more for Biden as Election Day nears, but I expect Texas to tilt more toward Trump.  I’ve just encountered way too many people who seemed down on Trump before, only to dig back in for Team R now that it’s showtime. 

Absolutely. Everything between Kyle/Buda and San Antonio is Trumpy as hell. Same on the north end of Austin all the way to Dallas.
Outside of the cities Texas is just as Trump loving as any part of SEC country. Let's not kid ourselves. If the miracle were to happen it will take never before seen turnout in the cities and the RGV.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Absolutely. Everything between Kyle/Buda and San Antonio is Trumpy as hell. Same on the north end of Austin all the way to Dallas.
Outside of the cities Texas is just as Trump loving as any part of SEC country. Let's not kid ourselves. If the miracle were to happen it will take never before seen turnout in the cities and the RGV.

It's just hard to imagine Biden doing better than Beto here.

[BradInATX 9208]

It's just hard to imagine Biden doing better than Beto here.

Agree although I guess one could argue that Biden might do better with the olds

[Dbeasy 15051]

Absolutely. Everything between Kyle/Buda and San Antonio is Trumpy as hell. Same on the north end of Austin all the way to Dallas.
Outside of the cities Texas is just as Trump loving as any part of SEC country. Let's not kid ourselves. If the miracle were to happen it will take never before seen turnout in the cities and the RGV.

Yup, and it’s quite ironic to see jimmyJames call everyone else a Trumper idiot (even though he’s been told multiple times he’s mistaken) when he has no clue about what’s happening in what I assume is his own state of Texas. The lack of self awareness is very Trumper-like.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

4 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

It's just hard to imagine Biden doing better than Beto here.

Agree although I guess one could argue that Biden might do better with the olds

that and possibly presidential turnout helps. Beto lost by 2.6 points and the notion was that his race was going to help Texas Ds down the line in 2020 and beyond 

[JimmyJames 12271]

31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Yup, and it’s quite ironic to see jimmyJames call everyone else a Trumper idiot (even though he’s been told multiple times he’s mistaken) when he has no clue about what’s happening in what I assume is his own state of Texas. The lack of self awareness is very Trumper-like.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513437-new-texas-poll-showing-biden-with-1-point-lead

 

And you are right, there are tons of white male dumbasses in Texas all over the state, both rural and in the burbs who will pull the lever for trump.

My point is they are getting close to being outnumbered and Texas is a toss up state. You are the guy who claims New Mexico is “in play” for Trump. 

[immamac 42850]

I don't know if it's just me or what, but America is already going to die, how quick that death comes is what this next election is about. Joe Biden isn't saving America from being on its death bed. Trump will treat the death of America similarly to how he just treated his brother's. He will golf about it and tweet mixed in with racist tweets or tweets fanning flames of conspiracy theories. 

Joe Biden will try and fail to resuscitate the way it was before in 2008-2016. The truth is America isn't the land of its people anymore it's a bonafide oligarchy. It won't be as brash or in our face. The only way to fix things now is constitutional amendments and wide sweeping changes to the way our government works for and interacts with our people. All Americans. 

[4th&Five 41551]

 

[Red Five 40858]

Link to all the polls where he's over 50%. 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Link to all the polls where he's over 50%. 

I did not even look but I will say Rasmussen.  Also the poll was probably a Republican only favorability poll knowing this guy.

[The Dog 44051]

He's probably getting state polls confused with national polls. Trafalgar released a Missouri poll today where he's up 11 with over 50%. 

Regarding current polls - a lot of these polls in "battleground states" are showing leads within the margin of error, which is a statistical dead heat. Now the aggregate may show a Biden or Trump lead, but that's something to keep an eye on. 

We should get more polls out this week and hopefully of higher quality. I'm sick of these +/-5.5% garbage polls.

[Red Five 40858]

3 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I did not even look but I will say Rasmussen.  Also the poll was probably a Republican only favorability poll knowing this guy.

Just looked it up and he's at 44% and 45% in the two Rasmussen polls in the last week. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

25 minutes ago, immamac said:

I don't know if it's just me or what, but America is already going to die, how quick that death comes is what this next election is about. Joe Biden isn't saving America from being on its death bed. Trump will treat the death of America similarly to how he just treated his brother's. He will golf about it and tweet mixed in with racist tweets or tweets fanning flames of conspiracy theories. 

Joe Biden will try and fail to resuscitate the way it was before in 2008-2016. The truth is America isn't the land of its people anymore it's a bonafide oligarchy. It won't be as brash or in our face. The only way to fix things now is constitutional amendments and wide sweeping changes to the way our government works for and interacts with our people. All Americans. 

I think you can start make an argument that dissolution of the Union should be on the table.  I think we may have reached a point where the two sides of America can no longer live with each other. 

 

On polling:  We don't really know shit, other than in the short term, Trump does not seem to have improved his approval ratings over the last week. Still 42% adored/55% despised.  

Edited August 31, 2020 by Bateshorn

[The Dog 44051]

I wonder how much NY and California skew polling nationally. I'd almost be tempted to release two polls - one with both included and another that doesn't. That might show a better picture of where things are. There's probably some methodology to account for this, but I think it would be informative. 

Just to give you an idea of how badly they can skew things - Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes. She won NY state by over 4 million votes and California by 1.7 million votes. 

Trump won the popular vote in the remaining 48 states by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

Something to keep in mind.

[Dbeasy 15051]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513437-new-texas-poll-showing-biden-with-1-point-lead
 
And you are right, there are tons of white male dumbasses in Texas all over the state, both rural and in the burbs who will pull the lever for trump.
My point is they are getting close to being outnumbered and Texas is a toss up state. You are the guy who claims New Mexico is “in play” for Trump. 

You were commenting on now, not the future. Nice try.

On NM, you are right. I was quoting verbatim cnn’s election expert from the TV who at the time was doing a run down of each state, but agree with you after looking at all the polling data that there’s no way NM goes Trump.

[Aqua Buddha 14596]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I think you can start make an argument that dissolution of the Union should be on the table.  I think we may have reached a point where the two sides of America can no longer live with each other. 

 

On polling:  We don't really know shit, other than in the short term, Trump does not seem to have improved his approval ratings over the last week. Still 42% adored/55% despised.  

Next time Bama or Mississippi want to secede, I say we let them.  

[heso 2794]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I think you can start make an argument that dissolution of the Union should be on the table.  I think we may have reached a point where the two sides of America can no longer live with each other. 

 

I’d love to see how many of those pink states would flip to blue when the vote was on secession and being faced with losing the economic support of the coasts. Let the Bible Belt try to survive on its own. 

[Tuco 5076]

16 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I think you can start make an argument that dissolution of the Union should be on the table.  I think we may have reached a point where the two sides of America can no longer live with each other. 

 

On polling:  We don't really know shit, other than in the short term, Trump does not seem to have improved his approval ratings over the last week. Still 42% adored/55% despised.  

How do we split between the urban and rural communities?  Because that's where the split is.  There isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the voting public in a mid-size city in Nebraska compared to a mid-sized city in Illinois.  I've lived in both.  The difference between Nebraska and Illinois is the percentage of the population that lives in urban communities.  California could split from the Union, and you'd still have the divide between the urbanized coast and the rural valley.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

6 minutes ago, heso said:

I’d love to see how many of those pink states would flip to blue when the vote was on secession and being faced with losing the economic support of the coasts. Let the Bible Belt try to survive on its own. 

look at this guy thinking people will vote based on their interests.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

How do we split between the urban and rural communities?  Because that's where the split is.  There isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the voting public in a mid-size city in Nebraska compared to a mid-sized city in Illinois.  I've lived in both.  The difference between Nebraska and Illinois is the percentage of the population that lives in urban communities.  California could split from the Union, and you'd still have the divide between the urbanized coast and the rural valley.  

Yeah the handful of people in the rural valley would need to decide whether they want to stay with California or move. I'm betting they would stay, because the writing is on the wall. 

[Snake Diggity 4624]

This is how I will read Texas on Election Day:

Trump >+10%: An American death rattle, 4 more years of Trump, an embrace of the disastrous chaos/failure of the last 5 years, and a likely prelude to civil war

Trump +5-10%: the grey area in which Trump may win the general, and certainly nowhere near the rejection of Trumpism this country needs in order to survive, but essentially the same result as 2016, so while despair is warranted all hope isn’t lost

Trump +3-5%: likely part of a landslide Biden win, and while not the total rebuke we needed, a sign that in 2024 progressives have a real chance to take over the country

Trump +1-3%: certainly part of a landslide Biden win and a virtual guarantee of a Blue Texas in 2022 and beyond.  A near total rebuke of Trumpism

Biden wins: a total rebuke of Trumpism, America is truly on the path to recovery, the debate begins to center on which progressive policies to prioritize and how best to heal the country

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

23 hours ago, David Dennison said:

I would like to think that people opposed to such authoritarianism would grind this nation to a halt by refusing to work.

I'm not getting my hopes up though.

Out of curiosity, do you care to illustrate how your fantasy of grinding to a halt goes? And I'm not being an asshole here, I'm genuinely curious, because I can't see it happening. Some large percentage of blue america stops showing up for work? Middle class and lower folks risk losing their job and paychecks in an unstable time to voice their dissent? Who would call and organize this? Because, in a world (regardless of political affiliation) where Americans on all sides are increasingly for the past 20 years become silo'd entirely in their own immediate self interests, I have a hard time seeing this happening. And it's an even larger stretch where this action results in an end game where that guy would step down. 

But I'm open to being wrong, if you have any idea you can illustrate, that would be an interesting read. 

[Pancho 44803]

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

21 hours ago, thepop said:

This guy on youtube took current averages and accounted for the 2016 election day shift between actual numbers and final polls. For example, Texas was +11.7 in 2016 in polls, actually won by +9. Currently Texas is +1.2, so the same 2.7 point shift would give Biden a win in Texas. His map accounting for that looks like this. Even if we take out Texas and call that a pipe dream, it's still favorable.

 

 

19 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Biden still has 346 EVs without Wisconsin, Iowa, and North Carolina? I'll take that. 

Oh yeah? Remove Texas. and remove florida. Now tell me how fucking good you feel about things.

Then consider that AZ blue and PA blue are also hardly, HARDLY locks. 

[Gil Bang 25957]

NSIAP

[Bruh Man 3160]

Where is that POS Bloomberg at?

 

[thepop 4409]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Oh yeah? Remove Texas. and remove florida. Now tell me how fucking good you feel about things.

Then consider that AZ blue and PA blue are also hardly, HARDLY locks. 

You're telling me if a few states go the other way, the other candidate could win? Crazy.

Edited August 31, 2020 by thepop

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

3 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

NSIAP
 

consider me skeptical.  the profile of the average active duty troop makes that seem impossible.

[thepop 4409]

 

[4th&Five 41551]

Why would anyone expect less violence if Trump wins? It’ll be 10x worse. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

32 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Oh yeah? Remove Texas. and remove florida. Now tell me how fucking good you feel about things.

Then consider that AZ blue and PA blue are also hardly, HARDLY locks. 

Man you've been a little bitch on here lately. Take a break and do some canvassing or phone banking. Sick of the whining, get active.

[SydneyCarton 48106]

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

Man you've been a little bitch on here lately. Take a break and do some canvassing or phone banking. Sick of the whining, get active.

So because I don't subscribe to the likelihood of Texas and Florida both being blue, I'm whining? And you're assuming that I'm not active already in various ways? Listen, I generally I like you as a poster, but you can feel free to fuck right off with all of that bullshit. 

You want to make a wager that Texas and Florida both go blue? Lets start at a thousand dollars. I'm willing to go higher. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

39 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Out of curiosity, do you care to illustrate how your fantasy of grinding to a halt goes? And I'm not being an asshole here, I'm genuinely curious, because I can't see it happening. Some large percentage of blue america stops showing up for work? Middle class and lower folks risk losing their job and paychecks in an unstable time to voice their dissent? Who would call and organize this? Because, in a world (regardless of political affiliation) where Americans on all sides are increasingly for the past 20 years become silo'd entirely in their own immediate self interests, I have a hard time seeing this happening. And it's an even larger stretch where this action results in an end game where that guy would step down. 

But I'm open to being wrong, if you have any idea you can illustrate, that would be an interesting read. 

 

I don't think it could happen at this point in time. That power died in 1981 at the hands of dipshit and AFL-CIO president Lane Kirkland. He could have ordered a national strike in support of the air traffic controllers and that strike would have brought Reagan to heel real fast. He helped Ronnie kill unions which were all for one and one for all at that point in time. 

[6th Street 6401]

How are you guys even discussing Texas going for Biden? I could see it being within 500bps but that's about it. Way too many gun toting, bible thumping hicks there to turn red. Strong support from Black and Hispanic communities will not be an offset due to low voter turnout. 
 

Looking past Texas, the local organizers in swing states need to get those buses ready to drive people to the polls.

[jimmyjazz 45952]

11 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

It’s tough honestly. I love my dad. He’s supported me at every point of my life and would do anything for me. And has. He’s also a Trump supporter and we see the world in opposite ways. I struggle with it, I’m offended by it and my kids are getting to the age that they can’t understand it. What do you do? 

I was fortunate to have very compassionate, albeit socially "conservative" parents.  They would never have supported Trump.

However, I can see the problem you are facing.  Your Dad has done his job well, and you feel you owe him.  In a sense, you do.  I think if I were in that situation I would tell him that if he wants to see his grandkids ever again, he needs to keep his mouth shut about anything political, because it is YOUR duty to raise them to oppose what he stands for, and you won't have him confusing them and polluting the waters.

[jimmyjazz 45952]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

consider me skeptical.  the profile of the average active duty troop makes that seem impossible.

Why do you say that?  Active duty breakdown:

57% white

16% black

16% Hispanic

6% other

4% Asian

 

Officer/enlisted breakdown:  20/80

I think it's fair to assume that enlisted white soldiers follow the national #'s for white, non-college educated voters, which puts them at something like 55% Trump, 37% Biden, 8% undecided.  That breaks down to 25% of active duty for Trump and 17% for Biden, when considering only white, non-college-educated enlisted personnel.  That leaves a whole lot of room for college-educated active duty personnel (likely officers), along with black, Hispanic, and Asian troops.

I don't see it as a big reach for Biden to reach 43/37 over Trump when all active duty personnel are considered.

Edited August 31, 2020 by jimmyjazz

[Bruh Man 3160]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So because I don't subscribe to the likelihood of Texas and Florida both being blue, I'm whining? And you're assuming that I'm not active already in various ways? Listen, I generally I like you as a poster, but you can feel free to fuck right off with all of that bullshit. 

You want to make a wager that Texas and Florida both go blue? Lets start at a thousand dollars. I'm willing to go higher. 

You've been bitchy for a week bruh, well before this whole Texas debate popped off.  Personally, I think Biden wins Florida. Haven't thought about Texas for awhile. Biden's hispanic outreach sucks and the party seems to be perfectly comfortable remaining in the fetal position when it comes to this state. As for PA, lol get a grip. Biden is in no danger there. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think it's fair to assume that enlisted white soldiers follow the national #'s for white, non-college educated voters, which puts them at something like 55% Trump, 37% Biden, 8% undecided. 

mainly because i don't believe this.  enlisted are disproportionately red staters, (very) disproportionately male.  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military 

 

[RomaVicta 29907]

11 hours ago, formermav43 said:

No. I said “I can’t imagine” it: 1) I’m speaking only for myself here, not laying down any sort of guidelines for others; 2) I’m speaking within the realm of political opinions I can realistically imagine someone in my family holding (insert the standard Nazi analogy here).

I do not support Donald Trump. I am often critical of him. But I don’t view partisan politics through the apocalyptic lens some here do. And I love my dad a lot more than any candidate, party, or nation.

Don't mistake a pane for a lens.

[Huckleberry 32861]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mainly because i don't believe this.  enlisted are disproportionately red staters, (very) disproportionately male.  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military 

 

They also don't like it when the CiC is silent about a foreign state putting bounties on their heads. Why would the Military Times not accurately poll the military? 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

because accurately polling is hard.

[bolverk 29672]

One of the few subreddits that I really dig is the MapPorn one. Over the weekend, I came across a discussion of this OC map created as a composite from the various state maps put together by a group whom I'd never heard of: Our Progress. They're making some bold election forecasts all the way down to the county level.

Focusing in on Texas, their forecast looks pretty closely aligned with the 2018 results from Beto v. Cruz so maybe their map isn't too far off from the ultimate results. I mean, the above map looks plausible.

Here's their page on Texas: https://www.ourprogress.org/president/texas Shows it to be a really close result.

Edit: As one of our resident maths experts, @Huckleberry, I'd like to hear what you think about their methodology/results.

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by bolverk

[Huckleberry 32861]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

because accurately polling is hard.

No it's not.