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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46124

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4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mainly because i don't believe this.  enlisted are disproportionately red staters, (very) disproportionately male.  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military 

Understood, but they're still only 57% white.  You think the 36% black/Hispanic/Asian troops are voting for Trump in any significant numbers?

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Bama Chick
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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
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Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15090

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You've been bitchy for a week bruh, well before this whole Texas debate popped off.  Personally, I think Biden wins Florida. Haven't thought about Texas for awhile. Biden's hispanic outreach sucks and the party seems to be perfectly comfortable remaining in the fetal position when it comes to this state. As for PA, lol get a grip. Biden is in no danger there. 

He posted realistic projections on states. That isn’t whining.
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Horn Dog

Horn Dog 9915

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12 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

It’s tough honestly. I love my dad. He’s supported me at every point of my life and would do anything for me. And has. He’s also a Trump supporter and we see the world in opposite ways. I struggle with it, I’m offended by it and my kids are getting to the age that they can’t understand it. What do you do? 

If you really want to help your dad you should activate parental controls on his TV to block out Fox News, Fox Business or any Sinclair stations.  Also activate parental controls on his computer to limit social media to 15min.  Who knew that was why they called it 'parental controls'.   I had a friend who did this to his parents and after a few weeks they started to act and think normally.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

I wonder how much NY and California skew polling nationally. I'd almost be tempted to release two polls - one with both included and another that doesn't. That might show a better picture of where things are. There's probably some methodology to account for this, but I think it would be informative. 

Just to give you an idea of how badly they can skew things - Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes. She won NY state by over 4 million votes and California by 1.7 million votes. 

Trump won the popular vote in the remaining 48 states by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

Something to keep in mind.

*55 remaining states. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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It's starting to feel a little bit like Biden is going to win PA and MI and Trump is going to win Wisconsin. Leaving Biden to need to win one of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, or Georgia. All of those but Arizona have been fool's gold recently for the Democrats. All three of those are going to have unprecedented voter suppression as well. Relying on one kinda weird state makes me more nervous than I'd like to be about the whole thing.

Or Biden could blow him out. Who knows. Polling Trump is an extraordinarily difficult task. 

Friggin' Wisconsin, man. Hillary abandoning the Unions in the rust belt could be a mistake that is felt for a decade plus.

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gmr548

gmr548 16612

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I'm with behold the underminer on the military. The military as a whole has historically leaned Republican and the enlisted ranks are very trumpy, demographically speaking. One poll, even if it's good, doesn't flip that on its head.

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jimmyjazz

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8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm with behold the underminer on the military. The military as a whole has historically leaned Republican and the enlisted ranks are very trumpy, demographically speaking. One poll, even if it's good, doesn't flip that on its head.

I'll point out that the military isn't a state.  It isn't all or nothing, with the winner taking the spoils.

It's a collection of voters who are spread among all 50 states, and that demographic has clearly shifted more towards the D candidate this election.  That's a big fucking deal.  Think of it as a block of voting age adults roughly the size of the total population of New Mexico.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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23 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


Not responding to Russian bounties may be a thing here.

Whatever happened with that story by the way?  Serious question.  Democrats were convinced it would finally drive a wedge between Trump and his pro-military southern base and Republicans couldn't shut up about how it was a non-story, thereby validating it as somewhat of a story.  And poof, both sides haven't said a word about it in months. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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btw, for those sweating what the "betting markets" are doing - i only follow predictit, but biden has been leading at around $0.58-$0.59 to trump's $0.43-$0.46 for the past couple months.

after the dem convention, biden topped out at about $0.60, and after the gop convention, trump got up to $0.46 while biden sank to $0.56, but only for a day or less (it hasn't been less than a dime spread any time recently).

as of last night, it's back to $0.58 to $0.44 - in other words, remarkably consistent, even through the propaganda (and everyone always says these sites, especially predictit, have a history of being "trumpy").

people will talk about the race tightening, as races traditionally do, but biden v trump has been one of the most consistent races in the modern polling era.  from what i can see, the betting markets have reflected this.  don't believe bullshit anecdotal evidence about someone's friend's book which now shows trump as a favorite.  that's not a real thing.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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also someone can correct me if i'm wrong, but there's a margin in the popular vote that can't mathematically be overcome even in the wonky electoral college.  it's like 6.3% or something.  i did a quick search but couldn't find it.  i know the number exists.  hillary actually got fairly close. 

anyone thinking trump can lose the popular vote by 7-8mm and still win should rest a little easier, even with suppression tactics ready to fire.  i'm not saying this is a lock (it is, but that's not what i'm saying).  i'm saying that if trump wins, rigged or not, then the national pop vote numbers we're seeing are off.

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bolverk

bolverk 29717

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also someone can correct me if i'm wrong, but there's a margin in the popular vote that can't mathematically be overcome even in the wonky electoral college.  it's like 6.3% or something.  i did a quick search but couldn't find it.  i know the number exists.  hillary actually got fairly close. 

I remember what you're talking about. For whatever reason, the number that jumps out in my mind was that the threshold was something like 5.5%.

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yoladu

yoladu 4094

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

so is that roughly a +2,300,000 vote advantage for Biden?

Libertarian, Green, Independent, etc. made up almost 7,000,000 votes in 2016.

---

oops...I should have read the report.  33% of those that did not voted D or R in 2016 said they will be voting for someone else other than Biden or Trump.. so my numbers are inflated.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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5 minutes ago, yoladu said:

so is that roughly a +2,300,000 vote advantage for Biden?

Libertarian, Green, Independent, etc. made up almost 7,000,000 votes in 2016.

probably need to assume some will still vote 3rd party.  2016 was a ton of 3rd partyers.  if you go down to 2012 levels, maybe only 2MM vote 3rd, leaving 5MM for Biden/Trump.  That gives a 3.3-1.7 margin, or 1.6MM delta for Biden.  

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ChuckNorrisActionJeans

ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2682

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1 hour ago, Horn Dog said:

If you really want to help your dad you should activate parental controls on his TV to block out Fox News, Fox Business or any Sinclair stations.  Also activate parental controls on his computer to limit social media to 15min.  Who knew that was why they called it 'parental controls'.   I had a friend who did this to his parents and after a few weeks they started to act and think normally.

We did this to my parents when they stayed in our house as we were at the hospital with our son being born. No Fox News for you! Next!

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deac_tracy

deac_tracy 516

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3 hours ago, The Dog said:

I wonder how much NY and California skew polling nationally. I'd almost be tempted to release two polls - one with both included and another that doesn't. That might show a better picture of where things are. There's probably some methodology to account for this, but I think it would be informative. 

Just to give you an idea of how badly they can skew things - Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes. She won NY state by over 4 million votes and California by 1.7 million votes. 

Trump won the popular vote in the remaining 48 states by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

Something to keep in mind.

Polls weight respondents by demographic factors such as age, sex, race, state they live in, etc. so that one demographic factor doesn't completely skew everything. Well, the good polls anyway. When you see that a national poll has Biden at 48%, that doesn't necessarily mean 48% of the poll respondents chose Biden. It means that the weighted sum of all the respondents who chose Biden is at 48 which represents 48% of the nation..

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46124

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'd need to think through the permutations, but surely it's based on some variation of "popular vote gets the smallest X states and wins" or something like that.  Largest?  

I found a post online that claims one could win the electoral college with less than 22% of the popular vote.  In a 2-party election, if one candidate took the 11 largest states by gaining every vote, and lost the other 40 states by one vote each, the EC would go 271 to the other candidate.

I think it's a slightly flawed analysis in that it seems that every citizen is granted a vote, which ignores the voting age requirement.  I don't have the gumption to dig in any farther.

So, I don't think there's any comforting margin that can't be overcome, at least in a blind 2-party system where we don't account for the realities of state partisanship.

 

EDIT:  this type of analysis seems to assume everyone (or at least all voters) vote.  One can arrive at some even far more absurd conclusion assuming 0 or 1 voters per state.

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mchookem

mchookem 16379

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mainly because i don't believe this.  enlisted are disproportionately red staters, (very) disproportionately male.  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military 

 

i mean...soldiers are people, and people do have their limits. and Trump has specifically attacked some military/gold star families/John McCain, etc.

and also several top brass have come out and basically said 'fuck this guy'. 

anecdotal, but when Trump struck out at Mattis - aka 'Dean of the Marines' as i was advised - i have an ex-marine friend that i used to argue politics with who literally said 'that's it, i'm out, and he's lost a whole lot of others with this, too'.  

so, i mean, it seems pretty feasible. unusual and unprecedented maybe...but what in these times isn't??

i'll buy it! 

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

And only play defense? He came out and parried Trump’s attacks, then made some (very effective) attacks of his own. 

Oh don't listen to me.  I was just pointing out my disappointment, after learning that this address was going to be about law enforcement, I tune in (late) and he's going on about Covid.  I too, think this outfit bungled covid, but I think harping on that is not going to help.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3928

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13 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Oh don't listen to me.  I was just pointing out my disappointment, after learning that this address was going to be about law enforcement, I tune in (late) and he's going on about Covid.  I too, think this outfit bungled covid, but I think harping on that is not going to help.

Covid was the last part of the speech.  250k Americans estimated by election day having passed shouldn't be ignored and should be brought up in almost every stump speech.  

The meat was here:

 

 

 
Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13523

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mainly because i don't believe this.  enlisted are disproportionately red staters, (very) disproportionately male.  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military 

 

enlisted might be overindexed from red states but based on numbers, they are also from blue states like CA, NY and IL.  Hard to say if FL or the midwest is red or blue.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22728

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This is such bad faith. 
Twitter was a mistake, Anastasis is right about that. 

Donald Trump: “there will be violence if Biden is elected”

Conservative blue checks: yes good point sir, I love you

Joe Biden: “there will be violence if Trump is elected”

Conservative blue checks: OMG IS THAT A THREAT
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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25 minutes ago, Skyline said:

This is such bad faith. 

Twitter was a mistake, Anastasis is right about that. 

This is STILL amazing to me. I should be numb to it, but I'm not. He says this and they scream it's blackmail, but meanwhile Donald Trump has been saying only he can save us from his American for fucking weeks and my brain has been screaming "THAT'S HOLDING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HOSTAGE AS A CAMPAIGN STRATEGY" and so few seem to fucking get it. I just can't even. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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4 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Great piece. 
 

https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2020/08/31/the-left-case-against-supporting-joe-biden-in-the-general-election/

 

I realize that you're a troll and generally a piece of shit poster, but it's hard not to laugh when we get to paragraph two of your "great piece" and see this fucking gem:

 

Quote

Trump, for all his faults, poses no existential threat to the republic.

 

Perfect point to stop reading that piece of shit article. Glad the guy was so willfully full of shit and obtuse right at the outset so as to not waste my time any further reading the blathering of a fucking idiot or outright charlatan. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I realize that you're a troll and generally a piece of shit poster, but it's hard not to laugh when we get to paragraph two of your "great piece" and see this fucking gem:

 

Perfect point to stop reading that piece of shit article. 

That’s the least controversial claim made in the entire article. Trump is not some aspiring dictator, and isn’t even invested in using the power he currently holds by taking an active hand in running his own administration.  The things his administration have done that are anti-democratic are things that any Republican administration would do as his admin is filled with the same people as would occupy any generic Republican administration.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Anybody remember the scene at the end of "Wag the Dog"?  The whole operation of deceit almost works, and it appears that all is lost when the CIA calls off the "war" on television.  But Hoffman's character conceives of the "Old Shoe" war hero stuck behind enemy lines.  And they all agree that the strategy will be not to produce Old Shoe before the election, but rather after it as part of a "Jaws"-like social contract.  Vote for me today, I'll give you Old Shoe tomorrow.  Like in "Jaws", buy the ticket now, we give you the shark at the end of the film.  

I think that's where Trump is headed.  Promise us a bunch of multi-faceted solutions to our myriad challenges, but you only reveal them to us if we vote for you Tuesday...then we get the solutions on Wednesday.  His easily fooled electorate will love it.  Unfortunately, it won't sell terribly well across the rest of the electoral spectrum. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

That’s the least controversial claim made in the entire article. Trump is not some aspiring dictator, and isn’t even invested in using the power he currently holds by taking an active hand in running his own administration.  The things his administration have done that are anti-democratic are things that any Republican administration would do as his admin is filled with the same people as would occupy any generic Republican administration.

So your attempt to advocate for me or anyone else to go back and actually read that article is to claim that the big, fast, steaming pile of fetid bullshit he spews at they very beginning is actually the least absurd, stupid, just completely un-tethered from reality bit of shit in the article?

That's a bold move, Cotton. But I guess you're saying he made no effort to drain the swamp after all? Agree with you there. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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