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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Are "elements of the campaign" anything like "elements of the medical"?? 

 

More like elements of the "foreign advisors who will produce papers and emails." and elements of the "Bill Barr 401K plan and Shady Acres Island Fund."

 

 

 

Hope this wasn't already posted:

Now Lt. Col Vindman and Scientific American are Never Trumpers.

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4820

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Are "elements of the campaign" anything like "elements of the medical"?? 

 

Quiet way to declare (at a minimum)

salaries to family members and friends on the campaign payroll

hush money to porn stars

money spent at Trump properties

bribes to foreign countries for meddling with elections one way or another

payments to companies like cambridge analytic

 

 

He cheats on his taxes and never gets caught because he has so much to hide things in and the government can't afford to go after him due to the high cost of good tax lawyers vs IRS funding.  

He is doing the exact same thing with his campaign funds.  

 

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Good article on where the money is going: https://www.npr.org/2020/09/15/912663101/biden-is-outspending-trump-on-tv-and-just-6-states-are-the-focus-of-the-campaign

TL;DR: Biden on offense; Trump on defense. 

 

That is a great article. Some interesting insights. Trump spending $0 in Texas. My guess is that they know if they lose Texas they've already lost the whole thing probably in a landslide, so no use putting money into it. And although it says Biden is throwing a few million into Georgia, probably to make Trump play defense there, he's ignored it so far. Sort of the reverse of Texas. Their data folks have run scenarios and understand that if Georgia goes blue, so have the other 6-7 swing states. 

The 6 states that they're both focusing on (WI/MI/PA, plus FL, NC, AZ) make sense. There are no other states that have a chance to swing the election.

It's a sign of weakness and desperation that Trump is trying to flip MN/CO. There's a zero percent chance he takes CO, and a 5% chance he takes MN. I'm still worried about the rust belt and I still give Trump a shot to win it all, but he's not winning those two.
 

I'm just glad to see Biden running a smart, tactical campaign instead of running around trying to drink champagne with the cool tech kids and running up the score in California with his hair on fire like you-know-who. 

Edited by BradInATX
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Herpa Derpa

Herpa Derpa 6131

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

You don't think the Dannehy resignation was an omen of some seriously shady shit fixing to happen? I do. Trump's  happiest moment would be to lock up the three people he feels still loom over him: Obama, Biden, and Clinton. He is one sadistic sick dude.

I do not.  I do know it gave Judge Sullivan all he needed to continue the Flynn prosecution.  I also know her resignation means that Barr is getting nowhere with career folk, and will have to continue to rely on inexperienced yahoos like John Durham to carry his water.  And those guys have fucked up before every court they've argued.  This is the gang that can't shoot straight. We would already be under the dictatorship of Emperor Trump if they had any competence whatsoever. Stop being afraid of the naked guy boat parading, just laugh at him, point out how much of a failure he has always been, and vote.  Don't fall into the twitterverse trap of baseless nonsense.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

That is a great article. Some interesting insights. Trump spending $0 in Texas. My guess is that they know if they lose Texas they've already lost the whole thing probably in a landslide, so no use putting money into it. And although it says Biden is throwing a few million into Georgia, probably to make Trump play defense there, he's ignored it so far. Sort of the reverse of Texas. Their data folks have run scenarios and understand that if Georgia goes blue, so have the other 6-7 swing states. 

The 6 states that they're both focusing on (WI/MI/PA, plus FL, NC, AZ) make sense. There are no other states that have a chance to swing the election.

It's a sign of weakness and desperation that Trump is trying to flip MN/CO. There's a zero percent chance he takes CO, and a 5% chance he takes MN. I'm still worried about the rust belt and I still give Trump a shot to win it all, but he's not winning those two.
 

I'm just glad to see Biden running a smart, tactical campaign instead of running around trying to drink champagne with the cool tech kids and running up the score in California with his hair on fire like you-know-who. 

DIdn't that article say Trump wasn't trying at all in Colorado? Like spent zero money?

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19220

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

You don't think the Dannehy resignation was an omen of some seriously shady shit fixing to happen? I do. Trump's  happiest moment would be to lock up the three people he feels still loom over him: Obama, Biden, and Clinton. He is one sadistic sick dude.

If he wants to start an all out Civil War, locking up Obama should do the trick. I would not want to be a member of dotard’s secret service detail if he did that. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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7 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

I do not.  I do know it gave Judge Sullivan all he needed to continue the Flynn prosecution.  I also know her resignation means that Barr is getting nowhere with career folk, and will have to continue to rely on inexperienced yahoos like John Durham to carry his water.  And those guys have fucked up before every court they've argued.  This is the gang that can't shoot straight. We would already be under the dictatorship of Emperor Trump if they had any competence whatsoever. Stop being afraid of the naked guy boat parading, just laugh at him, point out how much of a failure he has always been, and vote.  Don't fall into the twitterverse trap of baseless nonsense.

Everyone of voting age in our household will be voting. Early. In person. However, I am in agreement with the folks who have concern over some of the administration/GOP rather confident air. Sure it could just be a show to hide the sweat over the fear of losing power, but I'm worried that they've got no intention of ceding anything and enough 'foreign aid' to do the deed.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted
If he wants to start an all out Civil War, locking up Obama should do the trick. I would not want to be a member of dotard’s secret service detail if he did that. 

Locking Obama up might be one of the very few things he could do to turn the huge majority against him. Sure, his rock solid 30% of racist hicks would love it. But anyone that even has 1 molecule of moderate or reason in them would see it for what it is. He'd lose every state not in the SEC or named Oklahoma

 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16612

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Posted
 
That is a great article. Some interesting insights. Trump spending $0 in Texas. My guess is that they know if they lose Texas they've already lost the whole thing probably in a landslide, so no use putting money into it. And although it says Biden is throwing a few million into Georgia, probably to make Trump play defense there, he's ignored it so far. Sort of the reverse of Texas. Their data folks have run scenarios and understand that if Georgia goes blue, so have the other 6-7 swing states. 
The 6 states that they're both focusing on (WI/MI/PA, plus FL, NC, AZ) make sense. There are no other states that have a chance to swing the election.
It's a sign of weakness and desperation that Trump is trying to flip MN/CO. There's a zero percent chance he takes CO, and a 5% chance he takes MN. I'm still worried about the rust belt and I still give Trump a shot to win it all, but he's not winning those two.
 
I'm just glad to see Biden running a smart, tactical campaign instead of running around trying to drink champagne with the cool tech kids and running up the score in California with his hair on fire like you-know-who. 
I'm not sure what Biden's invested in Texas but there's an argument to be made that it's worth significant resources. Polls are consistently tight and Trump could keep everything else he won in 2016, but it wouldn't matter if Biden won Texas. It's truly a killshot.

I agree the rust belt trio and AZ are bigger priorities because your chances are significantly better, but I'm not sure I'd prioritize NC or FL over Texas. Both are also uphill battles that lean to the right of the nation, but only one instantly ends the election. Of course, I do see NC as favorable to Biden given the circumstances and the polls are better in FL, which mostly ends it.
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If he wants to start an all out Civil War, locking up Obama should do the trick. I would not want to be a member of dotard’s secret service detail if he did that. 

He should lock Obama up for assassinating an american boy without any due process whatsoever.  Would be fun to watch libs defend Obama over that.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm not sure what Biden's invested in Texas but there's an argument to be made that it's worth significant resources. Polls are consistently tight and Trump could keep everything else he won in 2016, but it wouldn't matter if Biden won Texas. It's truly a killshot.

I agree the rust belt trio and AZ are bigger priorities because your chances are significantly better, but I'm not sure I'd prioritize NC or FL over Texas. Both are also uphill battles that lean to the right of the nation, but only one instantly ends the election. Of course, I do see NC as favorable to Biden given the circumstances and the polls are better in FL, which mostly ends it.

FL is just as much of a killshot as Texas, and at least it's gone blue in recent past. 

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4820

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Posted (edited)

On a positive note, the number of registered voters in Texas is climbing.  

Nov 2016 15.1M

Nov 2018 15.8M

Mar 2020 16.2M

July 2020 16.4M

Projected Nov 2020 17M.

And in Texas 45.1% of the new registrations are Dem, and 34.3 are GOP.    I am not sure how they determine which way the new registrant lean, but have asked for more support info.  

Let's say we only get to 16.8M new voters by Nov. and we assume 10% GOP won't push the Trump button, and 75% of the undeclared vote blue, then that's over 417K new blue votes, which more than halves the gap from the 2016 election.  

This doesn't count the older Dems who haven't voted in a while waking up.  

But sadly, we also have to count the crap that is sure to happen with VBM issues and voter suppression.

So there is definitely a path to turn Texas blue in 2020.

 

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45728

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Posted
36 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

On a positive note, the number of registered voters in Texas is climbing.  

Nov 2016 15.1M

Nov 2018 15.8M

Mar 2020 16.2M

July 2020 16.4M

Projected Nov 2020 17M.

And in Texas 45.1% of the new registrations are Dem, and 34.3 are GOP.    I am not sure how they determine which way the new registrant lean, but have asked for more support info.  

Let's say we only get to 16.8M new voters by Nov. and we assume 10% GOP won't push the Trump button, and 75% of the undeclared vote blue, then that's over 417K new blue votes, which more than halves the gap from the 2016 election.  

This doesn't count the older Dems who haven't voted in a while waking up.  

But sadly, we also have to count the crap that is sure to happen with VBM issues and voter suppression.

So there is definitely a path to turn Texas blue in 2020.

 

 

You did mention it, but do we really expect the Rs who control Texas to let it go blue?  Abbott, Indicted Paxton, etc?  I would fully expect them to full on commit voter fraud, throw out votes, whatever to stop this from happening.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

 

That is a great article. Some interesting insights. Trump spending $0 in Texas. My guess is that they know if they lose Texas they've already lost the whole thing probably in a landslide, so no use putting money into it. And although it says Biden is throwing a few million into Georgia, probably to make Trump play defense there, he's ignored it so far. Sort of the reverse of Texas. Their data folks have run scenarios and understand that if Georgia goes blue, so have the other 6-7 swing states. 

The 6 states that they're both focusing on (WI/MI/PA, plus FL, NC, AZ) make sense. There are no other states that have a chance to swing the election.

It's a sign of weakness and desperation that Trump is trying to flip MN/CO. There's a zero percent chance he takes CO, and a 5% chance he takes MN. I'm still worried about the rust belt and I still give Trump a shot to win it all, but he's not winning those two.
 

I'm just glad to see Biden running a smart, tactical campaign instead of running around trying to drink champagne with the cool tech kids and running up the score in California with his hair on fire like you-know-who. 

I am surprised they’re spending money in NC and MI as I don’t really think they’re swing states at this point (NC red, MI blue).  I still believe PA will decide the election, with shenanigans in AZ and/or WI as Trump’s backup plan.  And I understand why they’re both spending money in Florida; it’s close enough to flip, Trump is sunk without it, and Biden can remove all doubt if he wins it (Biden gets to 270 with Florida even if he loses PA, WI, and AZ).

My assumption is that blue spending in Texas is geared toward 2024, as a step toward preparing for it to be an actual swing state, since for now, Texas is a red state slowly turning purple.  Trump will win Texas by 5-6 points.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

5-6 points is exactly where the line should be set to get action.

Trump SHOULD win Texas by 8-10.

With great Dem turnout, it's possible he wins it only by 3-4.

If there is great dem turnout trump loses. If everything is normal trump wins by 1-3.  
 

Trump approval among Texas Republicans is only 50 percent. If accurate, that is insanely low. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44138

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

 

Trump approval among Texas Republicans is only 50 percent. If accurate, that is insanely low. 

Yeah that's not accurate and have no idea where you got that. Last poll I saw it was like 89% among Texas Republicans. https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf

I think you are confusing the "strongly approve" number with the total approval. The UT-Tyler poll has his approval at 49% "strong" with Republicans but overall a lot higher. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yeah that's not accurate and have no idea where you got that. Last poll I saw it was like 89% among Texas Republicans. https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf

The recent DMN UT Tyler poll. Unless I’m reading it wrong. 
 

https://www.scribd.com/document/474962250/DMN-UTTyler-2020-Poll-Codebook-2

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The Dog

The Dog 44138

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I thought both added up to 53 percent? 

I see it now - the one you linked is different than mine and it does say that. Mine says an approval rating of 73% total. Weird. I got mine off of the 538 link. 

OK now I see it - there was a typo in the version you linked. The "29%" strongly approve wasn't right and was corrected to "49%" in the one I linked. It's a newer version of the same poll.

Edited by The Dog
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17682

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38 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am surprised they’re spending money in NC and MI as I don’t really think they’re swing states at this point (NC red, MI blue).  I still believe PA will decide the election, with shenanigans in AZ and/or WI as Trump’s backup plan.  And I understand why they’re both spending money in Florida; it’s close enough to flip, Trump is sunk without it, and Biden can remove all doubt if he wins it (Biden gets to 270 with Florida even if he loses PA, WI, and AZ).

My assumption is that blue spending in Texas is geared toward 2024, as a step toward preparing for it to be an actual swing state, since for now, Texas is a red state slowly turning purple.  Trump will win Texas by 5-6 points.

North Carolina as red?

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I see it now - the one you linked is different than mine and it does say that. Mine says an approval rating of 73% total. Weird. I got mine off of the 538 link. 

OK now I see it - there was a typo in the version you linked. The "29%" strongly approve wasn't right and was corrected to "49%" in the one I linked. It's a newer version of the same poll.

Ah I see it now. Thanks. Obviously was a typo. 

Still 73 percent approval for trump in Texas isn’t great. Much lower than it is for republicans in the rest of the country. When Biden beat Bernie, Texas became a swing state that trump absolutely must win or else it doesn’t matter what happens anywhere else. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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