2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[yoladu 4093]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I want one very R state on Election Day.  Gimme AK, gimme KS, gimme UT. I’ll take SC, GA but all the talk about them Will kinda ruin the surprise.  

If east coast southern states like GA or SC are that close on election day, they might be able to call the whole thing for Biden that evening.

[SizzleChest 8283]

 

[tantric superman 4667]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, my wife doesn't want to go to the holy lands b/c of "all the terrorism" Yeah, ok babe- it's still like a pretty infintesimally small chance we are going to get got-and if we do I won't care anyway, so...".

I bet she doesn't want to go to the Holy Land because she thinks she'll be turned into a pillar of salt because of all the nasty you make her do to you. 

Deuteronomy 18:9-11

⁹ “When you come into the land that the Lord your God is giving you, you shall not learn to follow the abominable practices of those nations. ¹⁰ There shall not be found among you anyone who burns his son or his daughter as an offering,^[e] anyone who practices divination or tells fortunes or interprets omens, or a sorcerer ¹¹ or a charmer or a medium or a necromancer or one who inquires of the dead, or a giver of gnarly rim jobs ¹² for whoever does these things is an abomination to the Lord.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

11 minutes ago, yoladu said:

If east coast southern states like GA or SC are that close on election day, they might be able to call the whole thing for Biden that evening.

They will call it on Tuesday night.  No doubt.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I bet she doesn't want to go to the Holy Land because she thinks she'll be turned into a pillar of salt because of all the nasty you make her do to you. 

Deuteronomy 18:9-11

⁹ “When you come into the land that the Lord your God is giving you, you shall not learn to follow the abominable practices of those nations. ¹⁰ There shall not be found among you anyone who burns his son or his daughter as an offering,^[e] anyone who practices divination or tells fortunes or interprets omens, or a sorcerer ¹¹ or a charmer or a medium or a necromancer or one who inquires of the dead, or a giver of gnarly rim jobs ¹² for whoever does these things is an abomination to the Lord.

I missed the giver of gnarly rimjobs in my translation. Good catch my man. 

[gmr548 16576]

I'm helping a lady move from Chicago.  She said she doesn't want to catch a bullet going to work or leaving her house.  She's 67 years old.  I asked her what she was looking for in a house and she said "nowhere in the ghetto, nowhere that isn't safe that I'm worried about getting shot".  She told me 3 times she didn't want the ghetto. I was like- got it- no ghetto.  We can make that happen, I promise.  I was trying to tell her that there's probably very very very few neighborhoods in Houston that she would find unsafe and she was skeptical.  I get the sense from the stats that Chicago is probably a really big problem in a lot of places.  And you can find trouble in any big city of course.  But I think on balance America is a pretty safe place and you will be fine almost anywhere abiding by- don't want none then don't start none.  But yeah, the amount of people freaked out about cities that live out in the sticks is amusing and naive.  

In Chicago, like in most places, the risk varies wildly between neighborhoods. Depending on where she lives, she may be justified in her fear, or she may end up moving to a statisticly more dangerous area in Houston without noticing - because as you pointed out, American cities are fairly safe in general.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Pope Francis is great.

Michael, my child, the Lord teaches that if the shepherd chooses to align himself with the wolf, the shepherd must get fucked.

[Gatorubet 30209]

I don’t think there is any chance that shit-head will step down when he loses. Or that Pence will have the guts to go that route without Donny.

So I’m thinking the hamburders will cause Dotard to have a.....stroke.... before the election. Like a Langley induced stroke. Because civil war is bad for bidness and because shitting on the IC and military is not a good long term strategy, no matter your party.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

In Chicago, like in most places, the risk varies wildly between neighborhoods. Depending on where she lives, she may be justified in her fear, or she may end up moving to a statisticly more dangerous area in Houston without noticing - because as you pointed out, American cities are fairly safe in general.

 

You can usually get a feel for people when you talk to them on the phone. I don't doubt her neighborhood is unsafe.  She's a 67 year old vet, nurse, really cool lady, and she's got like $1200 to spend on her house payment, so if she said she's got to go before she catches a bullet I believe her that she knows what that looked like.  It was funny, to listen to her talk like that. She was practically saying- don't redline me bro.  I was like- I'm not an agent- all I'm going to do is tell you how much house you can afford- and then I will put you with someone who has experience in that area if you want me to- or you can pick your own agent.  Very sweet lady. once or twice a month I like to get a feel good deal where we do something to help someone that needs it.  Hopefully this will be her this month.  

[Biff Tannen 45673]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

The worldview they have is hopelessly narrow and nearsighted.  These are people who, when we tell them we are doing something like visiting Paris, warn us away -- "you can't go there!  It's too dangerous!  There's terrorist attacks all the time!"  A rebuttal of "you, umm, do realize that statistically, I am taking a greater risk driving my car the 90 miles I have to cover to visit you, right?"  Same thing about visiting any major city -- "they murder everyone there!"  No they don't.  If I avoid a few particularly hazardous blocks, and refrain from engaging in the drug trade, my chances of getting murdered in City X are about the same as they are in Peaceful Small Town Y.

We have manipulated and sold our rural population a fantasy -- they live in REAL America, where it's safe, and everything is great.  Bullshit.  Rural America has the same problems as everyone else -- poverty, despair, addiction, and in many cases, they are worse than in urban areas.  It's fucking twisted, and it's really harmful to THEM.  Because when you're in a shitty situation, but you've been convinced that it's paradise, then you will accept all manner of shitty outcomes, because "it's better than living in a hellhole like NEW YORK CITY!"

You've met my in laws?

[Tuco 5076]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Most human beings ability to adequately address risk in any given situation is terrible. Safety, money, any particular event in their life. Risk reward is a tough concept, seemingly, for most. Not my lady from talking to her- she is in a rough place and probably can’t find much safety for $1200 a month payment- but I was like yeah- no problem you can find a nice safe house in houston outskirts for 160k. You will be fine. She has a hard time believing that. 

No, she can't find a safe place to live in Chicago for 1200 per month.  That's because there are ton of people who love the city who are willing to spend a lot of money to live there, unless it's in a dangerous neighborhood.  The fact that Chicago is cool as fuck is part of what drives that dynamic.  Yes, homicides are up in 2020, after declining the three years prior.  Yes, there are dangerous parts of the city.  But so many hicks think that is what defines the city.  It doesn't. 

I had a conversation with some dude who used to live in Seattle and was telling me about the city was imploding, just absolutely falling to pieces.  He went on for likely twenty minutes on it.  I then asked him if the rents were dropping.  "Uh...no."  Then it ain't fucking crumbling.   

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

7 minutes ago, Tuco said:

No, she can't find a safe place to live in Chicago for 1200 per month.  That's because there are ton of people who love the city who are willing to spend a lot of money to live there, unless it's in a dangerous neighborhood.  The fact that Chicago is cool as fuck is part of what drives that dynamic.  Yes, homicides are up in 2020, after declining the three years prior.  Yes, there are dangerous parts of the city.  But so many hicks think that is what defines the city.  It doesn't. 

I had a conversation with some dude who used to live in Seattle and was telling me about the city was imploding, just absolutely falling to pieces.  He went on for likely twenty minutes on it.  I then asked him if the rents were dropping.  "Uh...no."  Then it ain't fucking crumbling.   

Sure. The one thing about “the rents not dropping so everything’s fine” is that kind of thing can fall off a cliff once a neighborhood turns for good in a tipping point sense. I don’t think that’s all that possible in a city wide sense, but I guess if it’s going to happen Covid might bring it on if we do have a Migration away from cities. I’m betting the under on that though. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Foosters 17850]

I still remember the shock I felt upon reading a DT thread and learning that my city is currently a smoldering heap of ash patrolled by bands of leftist militants. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I still remember the shock I felt upon reading a DT thread and learning that my city is currently a smoldering heap of ash patrolled by bands of leftist militants. 

 

What city is that Pflugerville?

[Tuco 5076]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. The one thing about “the rents not dropping so everything’s fine” is that kind of thing can fall off a cliff once a neighborhood goes bad. I don’t think that’s all that possible in a city wide sense, but I guess if it’s going to happen Covid might bring it on if we do have a Migration away from cities. I’m betting the under on that though. 

Sure.  And rents are dropping now because of COVID.

A small town can go to shit as soon as "the plant" closes.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

Sure.  And rents are dropping now because of COVID.

A small town can go to shit as soon as "the plant" closes.  

Yep. Becomes inhabited by ghosts. It’s the saddest thing ever noting the people who didn’t bother to move when the plant shit down. Uhmmm, lock it up boys- this thing is D U N done. 

[Brisketexan 105095]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. Becomes inhabited by ghosts. It’s the saddest thing ever noting the people who didn’t bother to move when the plant shit down. Uhmmm, lock it up boys- this thing is D U N done. 

They don't move because 1) they are fucking stupid (sorry, we just have to acknowledge that "fucking stupid" is the American baseline), 2) they've been lied to and told that they live in REAL America, and cities are horror shows, and 3) it's smart to stay, because my god king is gonna bring back coal jobs, or buggy whips, or whatever dead fucking industry used to employ the town.

In a sane America, those people pull up stakes, head to any number of booming cities, and get a construction job that pays 2X what they were making at the plant.  They buy or rent a modest place in the burbs, like Pflugerville or Jersey Village, and they have a nice life.

But we don't.  Because we're stupid, and we fucking lie to them relentlessly for political gain.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You can usually get a feel for people when you talk to them on the phone. I don't doubt her neighborhood is unsafe.  She's a 67 year old vet, nurse, really cool lady, and she's got like $1200 to spend on her house payment, so if she said she's got to go before she catches a bullet I believe her that she knows what that looked like.  It was funny, to listen to her talk like that. She was practically saying- don't redline me bro.  I was like- I'm not an agent- all I'm going to do is tell you how much house you can afford- and then I will put you with someone who has experience in that area if you want me to- or you can pick your own agent.  Very sweet lady. once or twice a month I like to get a feel good deal where we do something to help someone that needs it.  Hopefully this will be her this month.  

There may be a suburb of Chicago where she can find something in that price range.  Not sure though. 

If she is from a bad neighborhood in Chicago, that could be her bigger issue. Sometimes trouble finds you when you are staying close to where you grew up.  At her age, I would hope all that has passed though. 

I found Houston more dangerous than anywhere else I have lived, but that was probably due more to what some of my relatives were doing with their lives than overall crime in my neighborhood even though it did have a sky high murder rate when I was in high school.  Stray bullets make the news, but most bullets aren't stray. 

Interestingly, I looked it up and Chicago and Houston are 1st and 4th in overall homicides this year.  Chicago does have about twice as many so it is definitely statistically worse.  Philly is 2nd and more out of spec per capita than Chicago is.  NYC is 3rd and still safer per capita than any other large city.  Also per capita, small cities pretty much dominate the top 10. None of the mentioned cities crack it. I was reminded of Bangin in Little Rock. 

Are there still places in Houston for $1200 that aren't in bumfuck?

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1258]

I bet she doesn't want to go to the Holy Land because she thinks she'll be turned into a pillar of salt because of all the nasty you make her do to you. 
Deuteronomy 18:9-11
⁹ “When you come into the land that the Lord your God is giving you, you shall not learn to follow the abominable practices of those nations. ¹⁰ There shall not be found among you anyone who burns his son or his daughter as an offering,^[e] anyone who practices divination or tells fortunes or interprets omens, or a sorcerer ¹¹ or a charmer or a medium or a necromancer or one who inquires of the dead, or a giver of gnarly rim jobs ¹² for whoever does these things is an abomination to the Lord.

SUPER steamy.

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1258]

Pope Francis is great.

Michael, my child, the Lord teaches that if the shepherd chooses to align himself with the wolf, the shepherd must get fucked.

“What do you expect? He’s not even a Christian.” - Evangelicals, probably.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. Becomes inhabited by ghosts. It’s the saddest thing ever noting the people who didn’t bother to move when the plant shit down. Uhmmm, lock it up boys- this thing is D U N done. 

Its sad. The other thing that is often glossed over is that their grandparents or parents moved there specifically for the plant.  They moved to where the jobs were.  In fact, the "American Dream" has mostly always meant moving. Manifest destiny, the gold rush, factory towns, mining towns.  Some of those moves didnt work out well. Predatory mining companies kept workers trapped. Sooners realized Oklahoma sucked. 

But they moved. They didn't beg for someone to bring jobs to them. Now some of us with socialist leanings can say we should bring jobs to them, but that has never been the American dream. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

11 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

There may be a suburb of Chicago where she can find something in that price range.  Not sure though. 

If she is from a bad neighborhood in Chicago, that could be her bigger issue. Sometimes trouble finds you when you are staying close to where you grew up.  At her age, I would hope all that has passed though. 

I found Houston more dangerous than anywhere else I have lived, but that was probably due more to what some of my relatives were doing with their lives than overall crime in my neighborhood even though it did have a sky high murder rate when I was in high school.  Stray bullets make the news, but most bullets aren't stray. 

Interestingly, I looked it up and Chicago and Houston are 1st and 4th in overall homicides this year.  Chicago does have about twice as many so it is definitely statistically worse.  Philly is 2nd and more out of spec per capita than Chicago is.  NYC is 3rd and still safer per capita than any other large city.  Also per capita, small cities pretty much dominate the top 10. None of the mentioned cities crack it. I was reminded of Bangin in Little Rock. 

Are there still places in Houston for $1200 that aren't in bumfuck?

Is Deer Park bumfuck in your mind?  Pasadena?  Anything on the east side. When you have a VA loan at 2.5%, no mortgage insurance, and an over 65 exemption your dollar can get stretched pretty far.  If she gets up to $200k that pretty much opens up any burb around at an entry level price point.  Pearland ish (medical center might be where she works), depending upon tax rates that might be doable (she's a nurse so that might make sense down there- but I'm not sure what kind of nurse she is).

I've never found houston dangerous, but I don't do dangerous stuff b/c I'm boring. I get the sense that Houston is the kind of place that could certainly be dangerous but not likely to be dangerous in a "I got caught in the cross fire kind of way".

Had a buddy on the force.  He said that when Katrina happened and the New Orleans guys moved in our bangers were like- help- these guys are crazy- they don't mess around.  Thought that was kind of funny.  

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Tuco 5076]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They don't move because 1) they are fucking stupid (sorry, we just have to acknowledge that "fucking stupid" is the American baseline), 2) they've been lied to and told that they live in REAL America, and cities are horror shows, and 3) it's smart to stay, because my god king is gonna bring back coal jobs, or buggy whips, or whatever dead fucking industry used to employ the town.

 

4) The majority of their net worth was in their house, which is now worth a fraction of it did before the plant closed.  

For folks that are of working age, they have to move because they need to find a job.  But for the old folks, they ain't going anywhere.  They couldn't afford to even if they wanted to.  

With all of all my complaints about small town/rural folks, I can see why a "Make America Great Again" slogan is effective.  The world has gotten better.  The US has gotten better.  For many of them, their town has gotten worse.  It doesn't forgive the racism and stupidity that is wrapped up with being a Trump fan, but I can understand why his message resonates.  I think it also provides some solace when they are told that the US as a whole, particularly the big cities, are in decline.  It makes them feel better about their place in the world. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Tuco

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Good good
 

Republicans like to bitch about our fundraising, but they just don’t understand.

look at all of the red states. The only states out of them with any significant money are Georgia, Texas, and Florida. All of the other red states are poor.

blue states have people from places with money.  Washington, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Virginia.
 

It’s just not even close when you compare them.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Its sad. The other thing that is often glossed over is that their grandparents or parents moved there specifically for the plant.  They moved to where the jobs were.  In fact, the "American Dream" has mostly always meant moving. Manifest destiny, the gold rush, factory towns, mining towns.  Some of those moves didnt work out well. Predatory mining companies kept workers trapped. Sooners realized Oklahoma sucked. 

But they moved. They didn't beg for someone to bring jobs to them. Now some of us with socialist leanings can say we should bring jobs to them, but that has never been the American dream. 

That's a great point and a great post.  It's something I'd really like to develop further as to when we became a nation of pussies. I think probably, ironically enough, in the 1950's- the time the Donald wants to bring America back to in order to make it great. Maybe if I get bored someday and have an hour at the keyboard I will think it out and type it out so people can point and laugh and call me shitty names.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They don't move because 1) they are fucking stupid (sorry, we just have to acknowledge that "fucking stupid" is the American baseline), 2) they've been lied to and told that they live in REAL America, and cities are horror shows, and 3) it's smart to stay, because my god king is gonna bring back coal jobs, or buggy whips, or whatever dead fucking industry used to employ the town.

In a sane America, those people pull up stakes, head to any number of booming cities, and get a construction job that pays 2X what they were making at the plant.  They buy or rent a modest place in the burbs, like Pflugerville or Jersey Village, and they have a nice life.

But we don't.  Because we're stupid, and we fucking lie to them relentlessly for political gain.

If one of the White brothers of WV can figure out that he's got a better shot at life in Minnesota then there's no excuse for any of them. 

There are a few things I miss about the country; seeing the stars, non-existent traffic jams, lower cost of living, but it's more than made up by the paycheck in the city. I'll get the hell out of the city and stare in wonder at the Milky Way and at the dumbasses doing 30 in a 45.

Pack up your stuff and go where you want. It's often a rationalization to remain where you are because it's a big unknown and change is scary. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

19 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Its sad. The other thing that is often glossed over is that their grandparents or parents moved there specifically for the plant.  They moved to where the jobs were.  In fact, the "American Dream" has mostly always meant moving. Manifest destiny, the gold rush, factory towns, mining towns.  Some of those moves didnt work out well. Predatory mining companies kept workers trapped. Sooners realized Oklahoma sucked. 

But they moved. They didn't beg for someone to bring jobs to them. Now some of us with socialist leanings can say we should bring jobs to them, but that has never been the American dream. 

The thing is the American dream of boomer generation was made possible by federal and local governments investing in infrastructure to make economic prosperity more egalitarian.  Public investments in roads, electricity, running water, telecommunications, good schools, healthcare, and a postal service made the billionaires of today possible. 
 

At some point in time the conservative movement decided to frame all these job creating investments as a liability to “capitalism” when in reality it was these investments that made a fair economic market flourish.  But you see tax cuts for insiders and “fiscal responsibility” is more important because everyone is so fucking stupid. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Apropos of nothing in the thread but since we're all here...

Oh yeah taxes and CEOs that's a reason to vote 

I don't give a damn about her looks, I love her. 

[SydneyCarton 48076]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They will call it on Tuesday night.  No doubt.  

I highly doubt this. They’ve all made this mistake before in 2016 and even back with Bush/Gore, and the more liberal networks will be hyper sensitive about calling anything with so many ballots being voted in this year. I’m betting only the right networks call it night of...

[Ghost of LL 15531]

31 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Republicans like to bitch about our fundraising, but they just don’t understand.

look at all of the red states. The only states out of them with any significant money are Georgia, Texas, and Florida. All of the other red states are poor.

blue states have people from places with money.  Washington, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Virginia.
 

It’s just not even close when you compare them.

Irrespective of the geography, it's a different mindset.  So many of the Republican voters who are of a socio-economic class to be able to give significant political contributions are Republicans solely for the low taxes.  If I'm a Republican because I want to save $3,000 on my taxes, does it make any sense to spend $5,000 on political candidates? 

Fuck no.

Those fuckers are so selfish that they're not going to spend money for any greater good.  So Republicans are always going to have a tough time with any kind of grassroots fundraising.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

1 hour ago, Foosters said:

I still remember the shock I felt upon reading a DT thread and learning that my city is currently a smoldering heap of ash patrolled by bands of leftist militants. 

 

Well, if antifa wasn’t burning garbage in a trash bin under your window then you would be excused for not noticing.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is Deer Park bumfuck in your mind?  Pasadena?

 

yes and yes. 

37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

I've never found houston dangerous, but I don't do dangerous stuff b/c I'm boring. I get the sense that Houston is the kind of place that could certainly be dangerous but not likely to be dangerous in a "I got caught in the cross fire kind of way".

Had a buddy on the force.  He said that when Katrina happened and the New Orleans guys moved in our bangers were like- help- these guys are crazy- they don't mess around.  Thought that was kind of funny.  

 

I grew up in 80s and 90s Houston. There was crossfire at the time, but you could mostly stay away from it even in my neighborhood which had its share of gang violence. I never started any trouble either but my cousins did, and I have been held at gunpoint more than once due to them.  And everywhere is safer now than back then. Chicago is infinitely safer than then. NYC is practically Disneyland compared to its bad days. 

And yeah, I love Nola, but its one of the only places I've ever been where I took a wrong exit and thought, "I need to get back on the highway right fucking now."  I have been in Latin American slums and felt safer.  Shreveport might be worse than Nola though. All the crime and none of the charm. 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/30/trump-debate-2020-analysis-423916

 

Quote

Donald Trump believes, to his core, that a single event in 2016 clinched him the presidency.

It wasn’t the FBI reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton. It wasn’t the Wikileaks dump of hacked DNC emails. It wasn’t the published list of potential Supreme Court nominees, or the selection of Mike Pence, or Clinton’s comment about “deplorables.”

 

Quote

To Trump, the pivotal moment of the campaign was the second presidential debate. On the second Sunday in October, the Republican nominee arrived in St. Louis a dead man walking. Just 48 hours earlier, the Washington Post had publicized an old recording on which Trump boasted about grabbing women by the genitals. A number of leading Republicans publicly renounced his candidacy. Many more pleaded with the party chairman, Reince Priebus, to remove him from the ticket. The morning before the debate, Priebus warned Trump, “Either you’ll lose in the biggest landslide in history, or you can get out of the race and let somebody else run who can win.”

 

Quote

But the reality TV star wasn’t going to walk away—not from such high drama, not from such huge ratings. In an interview several years later, Trump told me that he viewed the debate as an experiment in “who likes pressure.” Voters wanted to see how a prospective president would handle being tested, being pushed. Trump responded to that pressure. With his back to the wall, facing scrutiny like no presidential hopeful in memory, Trump turned in his strongest stage performance of 2016. He was forceful but controlled. He was steady, unflappable, almost carefree. Even his most noxious lines, such as suggesting that Clinton belonged in jail, were delivered with a smooth cadence and a cool smirk, as if he knew a secret that others didn’t.

 

Spoiler

“That debate showed that I like pressure, because there was some pressure. What were the odds? Like 50-50, will he show up?” Trump told me. “That debate won me the election.”

I happen to agree with him. At a moment of genuine crisis, with his campaign on the brink of collapse just one month before the election, Trump projected a confidence that became contagious. The calls for his ouster ceased. The party got back to work boosting his candidacy. His poll numbers began to rebound. Trump had passed the pressure test. He had stopped the bleeding in ways that kept his base intact while demonstrating a resiliency, a certain defiance, that was appealing to some voters still on the fence. 

I couldn’t stop thinking about that 2016 debate, and Trump’s subsequent analysis of it, during Tuesday night’s Cacophony in Cleveland. 

The backdrop was awfully similar. With about a month until Election Day, trailing badly in the polls and urgently in need of resurgence, the burden of performance was on Trump. He came into Tuesday saddled not with a single calamity of “Access Hollywood” proportion, but with the collective weight of a pandemic that has killed some 205,000 citizens, an economic meltdown that has put millions out of work and a racial uproar that rips at the seams of American society. Because voting has started earlier than ever, diminishing the impact of later debates, there was zero time to spare. This was the 2020 version of Trump’s pressure test.

He failed miserably.

In the wake of Tuesday’s 90-minute barroom argument, many was the pundit who argued that we really shouldn’t be surprised. Trump is Trump. The hysterical norm-shattering guerilla we saw debating in Cleveland is the same hysterical norm-shattering guerilla we saw coming down the escalator in Manhattan. The manic president on stage was no different than the manic president on Twitter.

But this isn’t quite right. In reality, the candidate we saw Tuesday night—the worn, restless, curmudgeonly incumbent of 2020—bore little resemblance to the loose, rollicking, self-assured candidate of 2016. It might be hard to remember through the fog of these past four years, but the animating sentiment for Trump during his first run for the presidency wasn’t hatred or division. It was fun. He was having the time of his life. Nothing Trump had ever experienced had showered him with so much attention, so much adulation, so much controversy and coverage. He loved every moment of it. Even in the valleys of that campaign, such as Access Hollywood weekend, Trump found humor in razzing Rudy Giuliani or making jokes about Karen Pence. Even when he was lashing out against Clinton or the media or the Never Trump Republicans, he was enjoying himself.

The president wasn’t enjoying himself last night. There was no mischievous glint in his eye, no mirthful vibrancy in his demeanor. He looked exhausted. He sounded ornery. Gone was the swagger, the detached smirk, that reflected bottomless wells of confidence and conviction. Though described by Tucker Carlson in Fox News’ pregame show as an “instinctive predator,” Trump behaved like cornered prey—fearful, desperate, trapped by his own shortcomings and the circumstances that exposed them. He was a shell of his former dominant self.

It was shocking to witness. Whereas Trump four years ago was unemotional in his approach to Clinton, placid almost to the point of appearing sedated, he was twitchy and agitated from the opening moments of Tuesday’s debate. The president shouted and seethed and flailed his arms in fury, his face pulsating ever brighter hues of citrus. For all the talk of Trump throwing Biden off his game, it was Biden—and moderator Chris Wallace—who stirred such conniptions in the president that he was unable to meet the bare minimums. Despite being prepared for the obvious questions, Trump was so inflamed that he could not offer the vague outlines of a health care plan or denounce white supremacists with more than a single word—“Sure”—when gifted multiple opportunities to do so.

On the debate stage, Trump has long benefited from a commanding presence, an intimidating persona, that compensates for his lack of policy knowledge. This was the story of his success in the Republican primary season: He was never going to be the smartest kid in class, but he was always going to be the strongest. And yet, Trump didn’t come across as strong Tuesday night. He came across as spooked and insecure. The president who graduated from Wharton made fun of his opponent for getting bad grades. The president who is charged with guiding his country through a pandemic mocked the idea of wearing an oversized face mask. The president who promised to Make America Great Again depicted the U.S. (without evidence) as a failed state that can’t run a legitimate election. 

Trump has lived his adult life by the gospel of Norman Vincent Peale and his mega-selling book, The Power of Positive Thinking. It preaches that there are no obstacles, only opportunities, and that overcoming them is a matter of belief and affirmative visualization. Watching the president on Tuesday night felt like watching someone losing his religion. Trump could not overpower Biden or Wallace any more than he could overpower Covid-19 or the cascading job losses or the turmoil engulfing American cities. For the first time in his presidency, Trump appeared to recognize that he had been overtaken by events. His warnings about the aftermath of the election doubled for his own political fate: “This is not going to end well.”

Facing pressure unlike any he has ever faced, the president of the United States came unglued. If his campaign for reelection fails, Trump cannot blame any one particular culprit. He can, however, look back on Tuesday’s debate as the bookend of his presidency, a moment in our history every bit as politically and psychologically significant as the one four years earlier.

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

46 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is Deer Park bumfuck in your mind?  Pasadena?  Anything on the east side. When you have a VA loan at 2.5%, no mortgage insurance, and an over 65 exemption your dollar can get stretched pretty far.  If she gets up to $200k that pretty much opens up any burb around at an entry level price point.  Pearland ish (medical center might be where she works), depending upon tax rates that might be doable (she's a nurse so that might make sense down there- but I'm not sure what kind of nurse she is).

I've never found houston dangerous, but I don't do dangerous stuff b/c I'm boring. I get the sense that Houston is the kind of place that could certainly be dangerous but not likely to be dangerous in a "I got caught in the cross fire kind of way".

Had a buddy on the force.  He said that when Katrina happened and the New Orleans guys moved in our bangers were like- help- these guys are crazy- they don't mess around.  Thought that was kind of funny.  

 

I find it sad that a 67 year old vet in the medical field has to stretch every cent and uproot her life just to stay in the game.  67 years old, you should be retiring, not relocating. But hey, greatest nation on earth and stuff. (not criticizing you wulaw, but these kinds of stories show how fucked up our society really is).

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, yoladu said:

How is it that Rasmussen shifts 7 points in a week, but all the other polls have consistently maintain anywhere from a 6 to 10 point lead for months now. Makes you kinda wonder about Rasmussen, eh?

Trumps case that if he loses this election it was rigged would be stronger (albeit still evil) if he was at least running neck and neck. i dont think one national poll has ever had him in the lead at any given point against Biden.

It's just crazy that anyone would believe the horseshit he is spewing, but alas..

Because the Rasmussen poll is complete horse shit? 

[Eastwood 4394]

37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They don't move because 1) they are fucking stupid (sorry, we just have to acknowledge that "fucking stupid" is the American baseline), 2) they've been lied to and told that they live in REAL America, and cities are horror shows, and 3) it's smart to stay, because my god king is gonna bring back coal jobs, or buggy whips, or whatever dead fucking industry used to employ the town.

In a sane America, those people pull up stakes, head to any number of booming cities, and get a construction job that pays 2X what they were making at the plant.  They buy or rent a modest place in the burbs, like Pflugerville or Jersey Village, and they have a nice life.

But we don't.  Because we're stupid, and we fucking lie to them relentlessly for political gain.

I have family still stuck in Small Town, Texas. I say stuck, but they don't see it that way. They see it as home and I can't seem to get them to leave. Small towns have horrible internet, a lot of them are food deserts, housing is old and falling apart, they are at least 30 minutes to an hour from even basic chain restaurants, etc., etc. Being in a small town is really disconnecting for most people, especially people 40+ years old who don't use the internet for more than email and their Facebook echo chamber. They've been in small towns for so long and the cities have changed so much, even in the last 5 - 10 years, that merely visiting a city for a day rattles them pretty hard. They're already on edge because they keep hearing all the hyperbole about the "warzone," then they show up and have to deal with the traffic, construction, large numbers of people, and they go haywire. When my dad comes to visit his grandkids, I have to let him vent for almost an hour about how awful driving in was, how many people there were at Buccee's, and how he must have practically almost died getting here before he actually remembers why he is here in the first place.

So the kids who grow up in small towns now go off to college and never come back because they've been away long enough for the nostalgia of home to wear off and the town's warts start to show through. They spend four or more years having the entire world and everything they need at their fingertips and have absolutely zero desire to return to Pearsall or Muleshoe or Ben Bolt or Nixon. The only outlier I can think of is Texas A&M. I know a good number of people who went to A&M and then went running back to their small town, whether it be to teach, work the family farming business, or take what little jobs there are in banking and county-wide IT work. I think most of us on this board can parse why that is.

[JimmyJames 12271]

54 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is Deer Park bumfuck in your mind?  Pasadena?  Anything on the east side. When you have a VA loan at 2.5%, no mortgage insurance, and an over 65 exemption your dollar can get stretched pretty far.  If she gets up to $200k that pretty much opens up any burb around at an entry level price point.  Pearland ish (medical center might be where she works), depending upon tax rates that might be doable (she's a nurse so that might make sense down there- but I'm not sure what kind of nurse she is).

I've never found houston dangerous, but I don't do dangerous stuff b/c I'm boring. I get the sense that Houston is the kind of place that could certainly be dangerous but not likely to be dangerous in a "I got caught in the cross fire kind of way".

Had a buddy on the force.  He said that when Katrina happened and the New Orleans guys moved in our bangers were like- help- these guys are crazy- they don't mess around.  Thought that was kind of funny.  

 

Houston, just like about every big city on the planet, is dangerous in certain parts at night. Otherwise you are mainly just being a big ass pussy. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5792]

13 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I find it sad that a 67 year old vet in the medical field has to stretch every cent and uproot her life just to stay in the game.  67 years old, you should be retiring, not relocating. But hey, greatest nation on earth and stuff. (not criticizing you wulaw, but these kinds of stories show how fucked up our society really is).

God damn this. 

Eta - someone posted an article awhile back, and it basically said Americans continuously vote against their self interests and this shit sums it up 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Doc Sam Beckett
Cholas 4 life

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I highly doubt this. They’ve all made this mistake before in 2016 and even back with Bush/Gore, and the more liberal networks will be hyper sensitive about calling anything with so many ballots being voted in this year. I’m betting only the right networks call it night of...

They are going to call it b/c the mail in ballots are ridiculously heavy Dem and it will make sense. It's not going to be close or a nail biter.  It will be blindingly obvious.  Trust and believe. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

31 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

yes and yes. 

I grew up in 80s and 90s Houston. There was crossfire at the time, but you could mostly stay away from it even in my neighborhood which had its share of gang violence. I never started any trouble either but my cousins did, and I have been held at gunpoint more than once due to them.  And everywhere is safer now than back then. Chicago is infinitely safer than then. NYC is practically Disneyland compared to its bad days. 

And yeah, I love Nola, but its one of the only places I've ever been where I took a wrong exit and thought, "I need to get back on the highway right fucking now."  I have been in Latin American slums and felt safer.  Shreveport might be worse than Nola though. All the crime and none of the charm. 

Places I've felt in fear for my life

New Orleans

East St. Louis

Detroit

Your mothers vagina. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

25 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Houston, just like about every big city on the planet, is dangerous in certain parts at night. Otherwise you are mainly just being a big ass pussy. 

How am I being a pussy?  I literally just said I don't find houston to be dangerous. 

I did end up in the wrong part of DC once in the 1990's and got pulled over by a police officer who told me to get the fuck out of there (I did- this was before GPS) and he followed me out of the area (this was like 2:00 am. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How am I being a pussy?  I literally just said I don't find houston to be dangerous. 

I did end up in the wrong part of DC once in the 1990's and got pulled over by a police officer who told me to get the fuck out of there (I did- this was before GPS) and he followed me out of the area (this was like 2:00 am. 

I wasn’t calling you specifically that. Translation got lost in the net. Sorry bout that.

[thepop 4409]

Text banking was a little rough tonight. I think we were going through a republican batch to find some dems. Takes restraint to not engage some people. I just want to tell them, "how does it feel that you're going to live in a blue state for the rest of your life?" But then again most are like 70

[Biff Tannen 45673]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

For the first time in his presidency, Trump appeared to recognize that he had been overtaken by events. His warnings about the aftermath of the election doubled for his own political fate: “This is not going to end well.”

[gmr548 16576]

You can usually get a feel for people when you talk to them on the phone. I don't doubt her neighborhood is unsafe.  She's a 67 year old vet, nurse, really cool lady, and she's got like $1200 to spend on her house payment, so if she said she's got to go before she catches a bullet I believe her that she knows what that looked like.  It was funny, to listen to her talk like that. She was practically saying- don't redline me bro.  I was like- I'm not an agent- all I'm going to do is tell you how much house you can afford- and then I will put you with someone who has experience in that area if you want me to- or you can pick your own agent.  Very sweet lady. once or twice a month I like to get a feel good deal where we do something to help someone that needs it.  Hopefully this will be her this month.  

Oh I don't doubt it. Obviously I don't know this woman or her situation, more addressing the comment you made that Chicago seems particularly bad.

[henrygandorf 29189]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I highly doubt this. They’ve all made this mistake before in 2016 and even back with Bush/Gore, and the more liberal networks will be hyper sensitive about calling anything with so many ballots being voted in this year. I’m betting only the right networks call it night of...

if biden wins florida and/or north caro, they can call it.  it's over.  those states will have a good sense by late tues night.  pennsylvania also will be counted and have a good idea of where they stand.  i'm not sure how those states handle mail-in vote counting, but someone can look it up, i think florida is pretty fast.

sidenote, if you care about predictit, biden has been hovering between $0.57-$0.60 for months now.  today, he's been at $0.62-$0.63 most of the day.  also on the map, penn went from light blue to medium blue.  north caro went from pink to light blue (for the first time in a long time), and florida went from pink to light blue (i think it's even money at $0.50). 

basically, for the first time in several weeks, it has biden over 270 without the help of the light blue states (ariz, florida, north caro).  light blue = anything under $0.65 for biden.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Just before the Covid Times, my associate and I ventured to Fannin County for a hearing.  It was a 1:30 hearing, so we had lunch at some little place there in Bonham.  As we're sitting there, we happen to overhear one guy talking quite loudly to another guy at another booth about his trips to Downtown Dallas.  It's incredibly dangerous, you know.  He's describing one particular spot, and it immediately strikes me that I know exactly the corner that he's talking about.  It's caddy-corner to my old office.  I walked by there every day at all hours.  It's decidedly not dangerous.  But to him, it was little short of Fallujah.

So he continues on.  Somewhere in this hellscape of Downtown Dallas, he encountered a homeless guy who was aggressively panhandling.  That tracks.  That'll happen.  But this guy was shook.  And, in his words, "it was a good thing I was strapped."  First off, who says that?  But then he continues that he drew on the guy and chased him for a block.

At this point, my associate and I went from being mildly amused at this guy's pussydom to being genuinely alarmed.  You pulled a gun on a guy for asking you for money?  I mean, holy fuck.  That's aggravated assault.  And you're bragging about it at the local diner.

So yeah--those people are off.

The town I live in is basically Mayberry.  We know a woman who purposely takes her kids on vacation to big cities and shows them things like homeless people and crackheads.  She knows her kids will likely live in a big city someday and wants them to know that there's nothing to afraid of.

Awesome story, though.  

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

I have family still stuck in Small Town, Texas. I say stuck, but they don't see it that way. They see it as home and I can't seem to get them to leave. Small towns have horrible internet, a lot of them are food deserts, housing is old and falling apart, they are at least 30 minutes to an hour from even basic chain restaurants, etc., etc. Being in a small town is really disconnecting for most people, especially people 40+ years old who don't use the internet for more than email and their Facebook echo chamber. They've been in small towns for so long and the cities have changed so much, even in the last 5 - 10 years, that merely visiting a city for a day rattles them pretty hard. They're already on edge because they keep hearing all the hyperbole about the "warzone," then they show up and have to deal with the traffic, construction, large numbers of people, and they go haywire. When my dad comes to visit his grandkids, I have to let him vent for almost an hour about how awful driving in was, how many people there were at Buccee's, and how he must have practically almost died getting here before he actually remembers why he is here in the first place.

So the kids who grow up in small towns now go off to college and never come back because they've been away long enough for the nostalgia of home to wear off and the town's warts start to show through. They spend four or more years having the entire world and everything they need at their fingertips and have absolutely zero desire to return to Pearsall or Muleshoe or Ben Bolt or Nixon. The only outlier I can think of is Texas A&M. I know a good number of people who went to A&M and then went running back to their small town, whether it be to teach, work the family farming business, or take what little jobs there are in banking and county-wide IT work. I think most of us on this board can parse why that is.

Lulz at going to Buccee's and complaining it's too big with too many people.  That's kind of the point.

[Tuco 5076]

if biden wins florida and/or north caro, they can call it.  it's over.  those states will have a good sense by late tues night.  pennsylvania also will be counted and have a good idea of where they stand.  i'm not sure how those states handle mail-in vote counting, but someone can look it up, i think florida is pretty fast.
sidenote, if you care about predictit, biden has been hovering between $0.57-$0.60 for months now.  today, he's been at $0.62-$0.63 most of the day.  also on the map, penn went from light blue to medium blue.  north caro went from pink to light blue (for the first time in a long time), and florida went from pink to light blue (i think it's even money at $0.50). 
basically, for the first time in several weeks, it has biden over 270 without the help of the light blue states (ariz, florida, north caro).  light blue = anything under $0.65 for biden.

I believe Florida doesn’t start counting them until the polls close, because they are attention whores.

[Biff Tannen 45673]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I believe Florida doesn’t start counting them until the polls close, because they are attention whores.

I know that every fucking year Florida is red, but all night we are waiting on those Broward and Miami-Dade counts to come in and we have some little sliver of hope and then it’s never enough and florida still sucks.