2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Pancho 44,206]

Torbush.

 

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

50 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Yeah- and in a mostly stable race. Or Biden will extend his lead and trump reel back in some of his base. 
Biden starts out +5. If it flows his way Between now and election he wins by 12. If trump brings his entire base home and gets them out Biden wins by 5. Somewhere between W in 2004 and daddy bush in 1988,  in the electoral college, but no oth through for trump to win. 

[Goredho 17,274]

12 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

My anecdotal evidence from family is different than yours.  They’re dug in. 😩

Sorry, I hope that changes for your family at some point.  It absolutely sucks.

[kevwun 15,572]

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Torbush.

 

I love the smell of desperation in the morning.  It smells like victory.

[The Dog 43,729]

57 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

...and RCP still includes several pre-debate polls.

USC Dornsife at this point (10/5):

2016: Trump +4  (47/43)

2020: Biden +10 (52/42)

[conVINCEd 21,468]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Sorry, I hope that changes for your family at some point.  It absolutely sucks.

It does suck and it won’t change.  One half of the family believes Trump was sent to us by Jesus, and the other half are cranky old racists with several fitting in both categories.

Edited October 5, 2020 by conVINCEd

[Goredho 17,274]

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Meanwhile, the country stares transfixed as Trump joy rides around in a limo.

[Tuco 5,076]

13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Torbush.

 

But Biden has this ability to actually understand something without it personally experiencing it.  I think they call it "empathy.' Weird, I know. 

[Red Five 40,574]

Fire those negative ads back up Joe. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,355]

 

[Pancho 44,206]

Arizona poll

 

[bad_teammate 13,120]

Yeah but is there any polling in Arizona?

[BradInATX 9,208]

Got damn, that's monstrous.

I'm not sure whether John McCain is in heaven or hell. Probably hell because if there is a just god, that's where all politicians go. But wherever he is, he's smiling and might get the last laugh after all.

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

Confirmed yesterday that my dad will be voting for Trump, which is a real fucking bummer. The good news is my mom will be casting her first vote ever, for Biden. 

 

 

[Chooky 13,292]

I lack experience in climbing feet first into a wood chipper. If you're looking for more than superficial advice on climbing into wood chippers, I'm admittedly not the best source. It's kind of insulting to people who have inserted themselves into wood chippers to solicit advice from people who haven't been inside one. 

[horncyclist 1,384]

Seems like a Biden landslide vis more likely than a Trump win at this point. 

[Chooky 13,292]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Confirmed yesterday that my dad will be voting for Trump, which is a real fucking bummer. The good news is my mom will be casting her first vote ever, for Biden. 

 

 

Is it cool with you if we throw things at your dad and shout in his face? 

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

2 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Is it cool with you if we throw things at your dad and shout in his face? 

Of course.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

2 minutes ago, Chooky said:

I lack experience in climbing feet first into a wood chipper. If you're looking for more than superficial advice on climbing into wood chippers, I'm admittedly not the best source. It's kind of insulting to people who have inserted themselves into wood chippers to solicit advice from people who haven't been inside one. 

I love Deadpool 2; so I’m with you on this one. 
“Go home, Sugar Bear, go home. “
 

”Will you give Domino my email?”

 

[DigglerontheHoof 20,973]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Confirmed yesterday that my dad will be voting for Trump, which is a real fucking bummer. The good news is my mom will be casting her first vote ever, for Biden. 

 

 

Assuming your mom voted for trump in 16, I'll take that split in every elderly household every time. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

52 minutes ago, The Dog said:

...and RCP still includes several pre-debate polls.

USC Dornsife at this point (10/5):

2016: Trump +4  (47/43)

2020: Biden +10 (52/42)

That dorm life poll is only good for tracking changes. It’s actually down A bit for Biden. Not enough to be concerning. 

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

Just now, DigglerontheHoof said:

Assuming your mom voted for trump in 16, I'll take that split in every elderly household every time. 

Mom has never voted. Dad voted for Bernie in '16 primary. He's now retired and is on Facebook all day. 100% the culprit for why he's voting Trump. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

8 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Seems like a Biden landslide vis more likely than a Trump win at this point. 

It always has been. It’s crystallized for sure now. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,667]

8 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Seems like a Biden landslide vis more likely than a Trump win at this point. 

literally true.  i think g elliot said 400 EVs for Biden is as likely as a Trump win.

[Dnaguy 11,707]

2 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Assuming your mom voted for trump in 16, I'll take that split in every elderly household every time. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Mom has never voted. Dad voted for Bernie in '16 primary. He's now retired and is on Facebook all day. 100% the culprit for why he's voting Trump. 

 

Did he vote for Hillary? The elusive Clinton 16 ->Trump 20 voter?
 

Your dad is Johnny Sack?

Edited October 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Did he vote for Hillary? The elusive Clinton 16 ->Trump 20 voter?
 

Your dad is Johnny Sack?

LOL. I can't remember if my dad voted in the 2016 general election. I don't even want to know at this point. 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,667]

it's weird that we have all this polling information that the olds have given up on dotard, but there is very little anecdotal evidence of it here.

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's weird that we have all this polling information that the olds have given up on dotard, but there is very little anecdotal evidence of it here.

That's because surly is a magnet for disaffected cynical Gen Xers and our parents are all assholes.

Love you mom and dad (both Biden voters but assholes)

Edited October 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's weird that we have all this polling information that the olds have given up on dotard, but there is very little anecdotal evidence of it here.

Pre-COVID, I went to lunch every Friday with my dad. We talked politics all the time. He loved Bernie and Buttigieg in the primary. He's never hated Trump but I kept that shit at bay.

Fast forward 6 months, he's at home all day on Facebook and I don't have the opportunity to talk to him about the election as much. Now a strong Trump voter. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pre-COVID, I went to lunch every Friday with my dad. We talked politics all the time. He loved Bernie and Buttigieg in the primary. He's never hated Trump but I kept that shit at bay.

Fast forward 6 months, he's at home all day on Facebook and I don't have the opportunity to talk to him about the election as much. Now a strong Trump voter. 

That is the outcome of the Parscale micro target strategy. Sucks but it works.  

[washparkhorn 9,931]

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

He's now retired and is on Facebook

facebook continues its assault on fact and reason. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pre-COVID, I went to lunch every Friday with my dad. We talked politics all the time. He loved Bernie and Buttigieg in the primary. He's never hated Trump but I kept that shit at bay.

Fast forward 6 months, he's at home all day on Facebook and I don't have the opportunity to talk to him about the election as much. Now a strong Trump voter. 

That's crazy. Sucks to hear. My family has gotten more polarized, but nobody has change their allegiance. It sounds like you and he still have a relationship despite political differences, which is good. I'm definitely not in the camp of "cut your Trump voter family off" that I've seen a bit on these boards. More to life than politics.  Just talk some good shit to him if Biden wins.

 

[royiv 9,124]

I don't understand how someone can make the jump from Bernie and Buttigieg to a strong Trump voter. My elderly parents also really liked Buttigieg and have only become more anti-Trump over the past six months. To the point that I have to ignore most of the anti-Trump articles my dad sends everyone everyday or I wouldn't get anything else done.

[Hank Kingsley 20,610]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's crazy. Sucks to hear. My family has gotten more polarized, but nobody has change their allegiance. It sounds like you and he still have a relationship despite political differences, which is good. I'm definitely not in the camp of "cut your Trump voter family off" that I've seen a bit on these boards. More to life than politics.  Just talk some good shit to him if Biden wins.

 

From my experience, older Iranians here in the U.S. like Trump. All my dad's friends post pro-Trump shit as well. 

I can't explain how frustrating it is that the Iranian men in my family, who literally had to flee their home country when Khomeini took power, find themselves attracted to Trump. 

[Storm the Field 5,268]

22 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Seems like a Biden landslide vis more likely than a Trump win at this point. 

That is certainly the case according to current 538 model.

Biden wins PV: 91%

Biden wins EC: 81%

Biden Landslide (double-digit PV margin) 30%

Trump wins EC: 18%

[SizzleChest 8,275]

34 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Is it cool with you if we throw things at your dad and shout in his face? 

You must greet him with a "Hey now" first.

[Storm the Field 5,268]

25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That dorm life poll is only good for tracking changes. It’s actually down A bit for Biden. Not enough to be concerning. 

Down a bit compared to when?

The 7-day window tends to oscillate in a fairly predictable wave pattern from around Biden +6 to Biden +13,  and has been back on its uptick pattern since the debate, sitting at +10.5.

The 14-day window is much more stable and usually sticks to Biden +9 to Biden +12. Currently at +10.25, also up since debate.

 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

20 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's weird that we have all this polling information that the olds have given up on dotard, but there is very little anecdotal evidence of it here.

Social media is a weird thing. My neighborhood goes 70 to 80% Dem in every election. The Facebook groups for my neighborhood are 75% maga olds. And they'll even shit on posts about things like restaurant openings.  And it nearly always has an underlying racist intent. Still, even though they are loud on Facebook, they arent even the majority voice among white olds around here. Most white olds in my neighborhood also vote Dem. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Down a bit compared to when?

The 7-day window tends to oscillate in a fairly predictable wave pattern from around Biden +6 to Biden +13,  and has been back on its uptick pattern since the debate, sitting at +10.5.

The 14-day window is much more stable and usually sticks to Biden +9 to Biden +12. Currently at +10.25, also up since debate.

 

From the high water mark at 13 or so was what I meant. 

[WBT 20,381]

The wave pattern in that USC poll is because they changed methodology.  I don't know all the details but basically this time they split their population in half and then poll each half every two weeks.  But they still release results every week after talking to that week's group.  So you basically alternate between Group A and Group B.  It would have made a lot more sense to treat it as two separate polls. 

[Horn Dog 9,598]

40 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Mom has never voted. Dad voted for Bernie in '16 primary. He's now retired and is on Facebook all day. 100% the culprit for why he's voting Trump. 

 

Pretend to be him and call to cancel his internet and cable service.   Act surprised at this “glitch” when he complains and promise to help him straighten things out. Delay, delay, delay.  In the 3-4 weeks it takes to re-establish, the facebook/FoxNews vacation may result in a glimpse of sanity.

[Storm the Field 5,268]

1 minute ago, WBT said:

The wave pattern in that USC poll is because they changed methodology.  I don't know all the details but basically this time they split their population in half and then poll each half every two weeks.  But they still release results every week after talking to that week's group.  So you basically alternate between Group A and Group B.  It would have made a lot more sense to treat it as two separate polls. 

That's why they switched to displaying the 14-day as the default, once other polling model nerds pointed out the obvious issue with the 7-day.

They also caused a brief freakout over the weekend with a major calculation error that dropped the 7-day down to something like Biden +2 before they corrected it. 

Think they're still pretty new at this and figuring it out as they go.

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

36 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's crazy. Sucks to hear. My family has gotten more polarized, but nobody has change their allegiance. It sounds like you and he still have a relationship despite political differences, which is good. I'm definitely not in the camp of "cut your Trump voter family off" that I've seen a bit on these boards. More to life than politics.  Just talk some good shit to him if Biden wins.

 

I’ve got beats with all my family that Biden will win. Every time I see them they get more and more convinced they are winning the bet and Trump is on the precipice of an electoral rout. It’s really honestly bizarre. My family is not made up of stupid people but they are 100% certain this will be the outcome. 

[The Dog 43,729]

7 minutes ago, WBT said:

The wave pattern in that USC poll is because they changed methodology.  I don't know all the details but basically this time they split their population in half and then poll each half every two weeks.  But they still release results every week after talking to that week's group.  So you basically alternate between Group A and Group B.  It would have made a lot more sense to treat it as two separate polls. 

As of today they have finished another 28 day wave. The next one ends on November 2nd. 

[ryskey 447]

Where are they located?  One of the great tragedies of all this polarization is that otherwise decent people don't even know they exist in an echo chamber.

[BradInATX 9,208]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 they get more and more convinced they are winning the bet and Trump is on the precipice of an electoral rout.

Well, they might be right..

[Wulaw Horn 18,945]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Well, they might be right..

Sure, but they've got Trump doing the buttfucking in that scenario, not getting an electoral train run on him.  

[Brisketexan 104,259]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Well, they might be right..

Correct.  Enough pivotal states are in stealing/repression distance, followed by an election contest in friendly federal courts.  This is and will remain a tossup race.

[Storm the Field 5,268]

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’ve got beats with all my family that Biden will win. Every time I see them they get more and more convinced they are winning the bet and Trump is on the precipice of an electoral rout. It’s really honestly bizarre. My family is not made up of stupid people but they are 100% certain this will be the outcome. 

I've definitely noticed this as well, and it's not just Trump fanatics. I know several nervous DEM guys that just assume Trump will win again no matter what kind of evidence you show them. 

On the other hand (and not saying your family is like this), but the true die-hards are absolutely convinced that not only will Trump win, but he'll completely dominate and end up with more EV than 2016, possibly even win the PV.

It seems to basically boil down to "2016 polls were wrong, therefore the exact same thing will definitely happen this time. Trump gets 30K at his rallies while senile Joe hasn't left his nursing home in months!" 

These are the same people who think every single news story is good for Trump/bad for Biden's chances. Also the same people who literally a week ago were predicting that Biden would come down with COVID to avoid having to debate.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Storm the Field