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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

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Paul Wesley

Paul Wesley 3,278

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

They gave Trump a slightly better chance than that: 71/29. Today 538 has Biden at 83/17. 

I remember Nate Silver, a day or two before the 2016 election, correcting someone on the 538 podcast who spoke like the election was in the bag for Hillary.  “It’s closer to a coin toss than it is to being in the bag.”  
 

Since then, I bristle a bit when I hear people say, “Well, all the polls were wrong last time.”   It seems that the polls were much, much closer to predicting the 2016 result than was the average layperson opinion... especially the opinion of Democrats. 

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Bama Chick
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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Chooky

Chooky 13,307

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

No way SCOTUS touches that decision. 

They must! This whole voting nonsense is detrimental to the GOP. This entire democracy won't be fair to the Republican party if we count all of the votes or allow people who don't vote Republican to vote. How do you not see this?

How is it fair to the GOP to have a presidential election while their incumbent candidate is so shitty? They should be given more time and more chances to show that he isn't really as shitty as he is right now. Everyone is judging by what he's done instead of what course corrections are possible in the future. That's a sham!

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The Dog

The Dog 44,020

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

I remember Nate Silver, a day or two before the 2016 election, correcting someone on the 538 podcast who spoke like the election was in the bag for Hillary.  “It’s closer to a coin toss than it is to being in the bag.”  
 

Since then, I bristle a bit when I hear people say, “Well, all the polls were wrong last time.”   It seems that the polls were much, much closer to predicting the 2016 result than was the average layperson opinion... especially the opinion of Democrats. 

Here's the 538 forecast from 2016: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Hillary was nearly 90% favorite in October, then it tightened significantly as election day neared. It was up and down nearly the entire cycle - just like the polls were. 

Now compare that to this year, where Biden has been consistently ahead with little volatility:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,294

Posted
Posted (edited)

Some more polls out this afternoon that pretty closely match the expected final margins.

NYT Nevada: Biden +6. 538 model: +6.8

NYT Ohio: Biden +1. 538 model: +0.2

Marquette Wisconsin: Biden +5. 538 model: +6

The Marquette poll is a tad concerning I suppose. Although Biden's margin increased, the previous survey in early Sept. was 47-43 vs. 46-41 today. Strange increase in undecideds. May be statistical noise though.

In 4 polls this fall, they've been +4, +4, +4, +5, so pretty steady results overall.

Suggestive of a Biden +7-8 national environment, i. e. how the race has consistently looked all summer and fall before this past week.

 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4,378

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

For your edification, then, here are the 11 blackest states in our union with potential bellwether and tipping point states bolded by me:
 

37.30% 3  Mississippi 1,098,385
32.4% 4 23px-Flag_of_Louisiana.svg.png Louisiana 1,506,534
31.4% 5 Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia 2,950,435
30.1% 6 23px-Flag_of_Maryland.svg.png Maryland 1,798,593
28.48% 7 23px-Flag_of_South_Carolina.svg.png South Carolina 1,290,684
26.38% 8 23px-Flag_of_Alabama.svg.png Alabama 1,251,311
21.60% 9 23px-Flag_of_North_Carolina.svg.png North Carolina 2,048,628
20.95% 10 23px-Flag_of_Delaware.svg.png Delaware 191,814
19.91% 11 22px-Flag_of_Virginia.svg.png Virginia 1,551,399
16.78% 12 23px-Flag_of_Tennessee.svg.png Tennessee 1,055,689
15.91% 13 23px-Flag_of_Florida.svg.png Florida 2,999,

Mississippi is one of those states that would be close to flipping if black disenfranchisement wasn't still occurring at Jim Crow levels and if black voters who manage to get registered and stay registered actually turned out to vote. 

I could only find pre-Trump 2014 numbers, so I imagine it is a little bit more skewed now.  But having more white voters trend toward Trump and more black voters trend toward Dems, the changes could have evened themselves out.

White MS voters are 65% Rep, 22% Dem, 13% No Lean

Black MS voters are 76% Dem, 12% Rep, 12% No Lean

With higher turnout, that might have had Obama beating Romney in MS in 2012.

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Paul Wesley

Paul Wesley 3,278

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Posted

I 100% expect some final-week tomfuckery.   In 2016 we got it from Comey.  This year there’s going to be pre-election stunts (in addition to the Russian interference already underway)... maybe even from our now-weaponized DOJ.  Political arrests.  Fake investigations.  There’s going to be election-day chaos (right wing violence, maybe a false flag we-caught-the-dems-cheating).  And there’s going to be post election stop-counting-while-we’re-still-ahead shenanigans.  
 

Which is to say- I’m not putting much faith in polls that think a fair fight is a given. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

I 100% expect some final-week tomfuckery.   In 2016 we got it from Comey.  This year there’s going to be pre-election stunts (in addition to the Russian interference already underway)... maybe even from our now-weaponized DOJ.  Political arrests.  Fake investigations.  There’s going to be election-day chaos (right wing violence, maybe a false flag we-caught-the-dems-cheating).  And there’s going to be post election stop-counting-while-we’re-still-ahead shenanigans.  
 

Which is to say- I’m not putting much faith in polls that think a fair fight is a given. 

Fat fuck Barr doesn’t have the credibility that comey did. I doubt he could change the outcome by more than 1 point. While comey probably changed it by 3 or 4 points.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4,378

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Posted
17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Here's the 538 forecast from 2016: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Hillary was nearly 90% favorite in October, then it tightened significantly as election day neared. It was up and down nearly the entire cycle - just like the polls were. 

Now compare that to this year, where Biden has been consistently ahead with little volatility:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

The attacks on Hillary had been going on for decades and had a huge effect.  The GOP machine has tried to play a similar game with Biden using Hunter Biden and a handful of other things, but they have largely missed their mark.  For the GOP vitriol machine to truly work, it needs to start at least 10 years before the race.

I expect that if AOC ever runs for President, she'll get the Hillary treatment because she is already under a heavy attack of bullshit.  

Of course, it could also be a matter of misogyny.  Women in the Democratic party are under near constant attack from their very first day on the job.  The men, especially older white men like Biden, are able to play the "good ole boy" game and don't really get attacked all that much until they try to go national.  You can also see this in the treatment of Pelosi versus others like Hoyer or Schumer.  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,294

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Some more polls out this afternoon that pretty closely match the expected final margins.

NYT Nevada: Biden +6. 538 model: +6.8

NYT Ohio: Biden +1. 538 model: +0.2

Marquette Wisconsin: Biden +5. 538 model: +6

The Marquette poll is a tad concerning I suppose. Although Biden's margin increased, the previous survey in early Sept. was 47-43 vs. 46-41 today. Strange increase in undecideds. May be statistical noise though.

In 4 polls this fall, they've been +4, +4, +4, +5, so pretty steady results overall.

Suggestive of a Biden +7-8 national environment, i. e. how the race has consistently looked all summer and fall before this past week.

 

On the other hand, QPac just dropped a load of polls that are "1988 landslide type shit"

FL: 51-40

PA:  54-41

IA: 50-45

Those are hard to believe even if you've got deep blue colored glasses on. IA +5 is somehow the most feasible. These all seem at least 4-5 points to the left of what I'd be comfortable predicting (FL +5, PA +8, IA +1 would still be an overwhelming Biden win).

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Fat fuck Barr doesn’t have the credibility that comey did. I doubt he could change the outcome by more than 1 point. While comey probably changed it by 3 or 4 points.

i think this is right.  so much cynicism from everyone about everything that comes out of this administration's mouth.  if they would have spent the last 2 years shielding barr from being labeled an obvious party hack, he could pull it off.  but they wanted him to go after every target they could and cost him any power he might have at the end.

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The Dog

The Dog 44,020

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Posted
3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

The attacks on Hillary had been going on for decades and had a huge effect. 

Well yeah, because she and her husband had questionable business dealings in their past. She was uniquely vulnerable to something like the Comey letter because she had a hard-earned image of being corrupt. It wasn't like people just made it up out of thin air - the Clintons have always been shady as fuck. 

AOC is nothing like that IMHO and I say that as someone who doesn't agree with her on much at all politically.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8,066

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Posted
2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

The only relief left for them is to take it to SCOTUS. If SCOTUS doesn't grant cert between now and then, which I don't think they will, then I would have serious doubts that SCOTUS would step in at any point in the future. It's a very positive development, IMO.

Does SCOTUS even have jurisdiction on Texas Electoral Procedures that are not infringing on a Federally protected civil right?  Examples like gerrymandering, voter intimidation and disenfranchisement would be in jurisdiction but not procedural questions like this.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4,378

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Well yeah, because she and her husband had questionable business dealings in their past. She was uniquely vulnerable to something like the Comey letter because she had a hard-earned image of being corrupt. It wasn't like people just made it up out of thin air - the Clintons have always been shady as fuck. 

AOC is nothing like that IMHO and I say that as someone who doesn't agree with her on much at all politically.

No, but the attack machine doesn't need to have any truth to it.  It is designed to make people tired of the individual who is being attacked.  And it has been super effective against women, but less effective against men.  Talk radio listeners already hate AOC more than Biden.  They hate Michelle Obama more than they hate Barak.  They hate Pelosi more than Schumer or Biden even though all 3 are geriatric politicians.  

And even with Hillary, it was still bullshit.  Trump is far more shady than the Clintons.  And the attacks worked on Hillary better than they worked on Bill and better than attacks have worked on Biden because Hillary is a woman.  Hell, Hillary was also attacked effectively because her husband cheated on her and she "let" him.

Edited by FondrenRoad
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The Dog

The Dog 44,020

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

On the other hand, QPac just dropped a load of polls that are "1988 landslide type shit"

FL: 51-40

PA:  54-41

IA: 50-45

Those are hard to believe even if you've got deep blue colored glasses on. IA +5 is somehow the most feasible. These all seem at least 4-5 points to the left of what I'd be comfortable predicting (FL +5, PA +8, IA +1 would still be an overwhelming Biden win).

The Pennsylvania and Iowa numbers are in line with other polls (Iowa a bit outside) but that Florida poll is whack. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,081

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

I came here to post this. I realize we sort of knew it was happening a few weeks ago, but a formal memo on it...shit. 

 

26 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Fat fuck Barr doesn’t have the credibility that comey did. I doubt he could change the outcome by more than 1 point. While comey probably changed it by 3 or 4 points.

 

32 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

I 100% expect some final-week tomfuckery.   In 2016 we got it from Comey.  This year there’s going to be pre-election stunts (in addition to the Russian interference already underway)... maybe even from our now-weaponized DOJ.  Political arrests.  Fake investigations.  There’s going to be election-day chaos (right wing violence, maybe a false flag we-caught-the-dems-cheating).  And there’s going to be post election stop-counting-while-we’re-still-ahead shenanigans.  
 

Which is to say- I’m not putting much faith in polls that think a fair fight is a given. 

You two chuckleheads can see above since your recent comments were both germane to that article. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,534

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That 538 number is even larger as it's a prediction including uncertainty between now and November 3rd. If those same numbers are present on election day then it would be closer to 95%.

As someone who has spent a fair amount of time playing the X-Com series, I'm acutely aware of how often 95% feels more like 50%. And it terrifies me. 

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G650

G650 14,253

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Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

of course, with arizona being important this year, we might get 

dyy_ZvtY0iVCUityv4zR-9pYfWTf7GfSSF2gsg5Z

 

 :(

Well, Biden is clearly the DBacks beause he obviously isn't the shitheel ass fucking Yankees, so this is alright.

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'stache

'stache 21,805

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Paul Wesley said:

I 100% expect some final-week tomfuckery.   In 2016 we got it from Comey.  This year there’s going to be pre-election stunts (in addition to the Russian interference already underway)... maybe even from our now-weaponized DOJ.  Political arrests.  Fake investigations.  There’s going to be election-day chaos (right wing violence, maybe a false flag we-caught-the-dems-cheating).  And there’s going to be post election stop-counting-while-we’re-still-ahead shenanigans.  
 

Which is to say- I’m not putting much faith in polls that think a fair fight is a given. 

Oh, I fully expect that Hunter Biden, Hillary, Mueller, and a bunch of other big names will be arrested under Barr's orders a few days before the election. Hell, they might exhume Beau Biden's body to hang him in effigy for some to be determined crime. It's going to happen, don't even pretend that it wont.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Pancho said:

My confidence level of a Biden win gets lower everyday actually.

 

I've been one of the more pessimistic in terms of getting out ahead of our skis with the "we got this!!!" proclamation. But whatever you think Biden's chances are, they are absolutely positively getting better as of the last few weeks. Whether or not he'll give it back between now and Nov 4 is TBD, but his chances definitely aren't getting worse.

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Longhornmaniac8

Longhornmaniac8 255

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Posted
I've been one of the more pessimistic in terms of getting out ahead of our skis with the "we got this!!!" proclamation. But whatever you think Biden's chances are, they are absolutely positively getting better as of the last few weeks. Whether or not he'll give it back between now and Nov 4 is TBD, but his chances definitely aren't getting worse.
Basically this. Nothing has changed that the Rs will try to steal the election. It's much easier to steal a 4 point race than a 9 point race.

Even with Republican fuckery, it's getting harder and harder. Again, the lead can (and probably will) shrink between now and then.

The bar is now so low for Trump in future debates, who knows what kind of twisted narrative he may benefit from. That said, the town hall format plays to Biden's strengths.
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Pancho

Pancho 44,759

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I've been one of the more pessimistic in terms of getting out ahead of our skis with the "we got this!!!" proclamation. But whatever you think Biden's chances are, they are absolutely positively getting better as of the last few weeks. Whether or not he'll give it back between now and Nov 4 is TBD, but his chances definitely aren't getting worse.

I picked a bad time to run out of edibles.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105,097

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Oh, I fully expect that Hunter Biden, Hillary, Mueller, and a bunch of other big names will be arrested under Barr's orders a few days before the election. Hell, they might exhume Beau Biden's body to hang him in effigy for some to be determined crime. It's going to happen, don't even pretend that it wont.

This is exactly the kind of game that they'll play.  Barr is more dangerous to this election than Trump is.

24 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 


Nope, I just fully expect Republicans to do something—anything—to steal it and get away with it.
 

 

Yeah, the casual dismissal of the shocking idea that a criminal conspiracy will do criminal things....I just don't get it.

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troph

troph 24,785

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

my story isn't an exact parallel, but i think there's some overlap.

when i first interned in la (1999), i worked at a small production company, and i was basically one of the assistants - hung out with them, went to lunch with them, etc.  one of the assistants was a typical white gay guy, mid-20's, normal looking, normal personality.  one day, we were all out to lunch only the gay guy wasn't with us, so of course, the other assistants were yapping about him, and about what everyone did the previous weekend.

it turns out that while we hung out with our own friend groups comprised of ~ equal socio-economic, racial, similar jobs, etc type people, the gay guy was out partying in a group that included a huge agent and a big director - also both gay white guys - as well as other gays of all color, status, ages, and financial levels.

the guys i was with just couldn't get past this.  they couldn't believe he was being accepted as an equal, especially in the hollywood social/success ladder system.  and one of them was like, "it doesn't work that way with the gays, they just don't care about that stuff."

it always kinda stuck with me, because like you said, inclusion was primary.  everything else was just noise, and they discarded it.  i've heard multiple stories like that since then.  it was like the classist bullshit didn't even occur to them, or it at least wasn't a priority.  and the reason i brought up earlier that he was a "normal looking/acting" type of guy, is that it wasn't like he was some super hot "piece or arm candy" or just incredibly charismatic or life-of-the-party, he was just part of their group.  no big deal.

i don't like to group or label people, but i think it's pretty clear, at least here in my west hollywood bubble, that the lgbtq+ community figured out inclusion and harmony a long time ago, and everyone else is still playing catch-up.

we've had our problems.  including trans folk and then getting racially diverse took a long while.  but Trump helped to galvanize that.  HRC has a ton of faults but they moved rapidly to full inclusion.  it's no longer the upper-crust white gay men's politics club.  We now know that our power resides in knowing we as the LBGTQ community are black, are latino, we are disabled, and queer, we are trans, we are immigrants, we are poor, we are rich, we are men, women, Jewish, Muslim, Christian, we are American.  And our straight allies are those things too!  That's the one thing we have Trump to thank for, a deeper sense of community and inclusion and it's made for fantastic partnerships across the political advocacy world.

 

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'stache

'stache 21,805

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is exactly the kind of game that they'll play.  Barr is more dangerous to this election than Trump is.

Yeah, the casual dismissal of the shocking idea that a criminal conspiracy will do criminal things....I just don't get it.

I have heard from a reputable source that Bill Barr is not a person but in fact a large dildo.

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'stache

'stache 21,805

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I have always disagreed with this rumor.  Dildos can pleasure a woman.  Bill Barr almost certainly cannot.

Don't kink shame. There is plenty of crazy out there who dig dudes who are in fact dildos.

Kimberly Guilfoyle's RNC Speech Inspires Wave of Twitter Memes

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